DocBauer

Understood. But it's a year and $35M later, so I'm not sure 10yrs is in play. I'm still only spitballing and projecting here, but take away that 1yr and we're still in line, right? Not saying what should happen or will happen, just that 10yrs should maybe drop to 9 now.

I became a fan of Correa this year despite a 1st half mixed bag of results. I loved his teamwork and leadership in the same way I became an instant fan of Gray for his leadership in regard to the rotation. I did a lengthy blueprint with the idea/expectation Correa would not be back, and how I'd address the overall depth and quality of the team for 2023. I'm still betting SOMEONE will just blow up any chance of the Twins retaining him. But with greater reflection, and after listening to Dan Hayes on a recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, some of my thoughts have changed. And believe me, the LAST THING I wanted to do was begin another thread about Correa. Haven't we had enough already?? So this might just be cathartic for me, and nothing else. There is the opinion, and I've shared in this, that Correa money might be better spent, OVERALL, across the roster. And that is true. IF, the FO does a great job of doing so. And I'm NOT going or trying to bash them, especially since they've never really been in this "clean books" scenario they find themselves in currently. They've done some very, very good things for the organization, and the team, but have also mis-fired a few times as well. Depending on which report and projection you want to look at, the Twins have about $50M to spend. That number jumps to $60M plus when moving Kepler and Urshela. Rumors and innuendo are bogus. But one "hears" the FO/ownership really want to keep Correa and will offer him in the high $200M's in an attempt to do so. Again, bogus right? And while $35M several years from now won't have the same impact on a payroll the way it does now, you're still paying for the first 5 or 6 years and undoubtedly eating some sunken cost the last few. There are a handful of teams that could just decide to blow up any offer the Twins might make at 9yrs and $300M, fully able and willing to eat some late contract numbers. Now, the market has been very strange the past few years so who knows. But Correa is a special player. And he's not only a leader who is driven to win, he's smart as hell and sees what is going on around him. Hayes mentioned a Yankees game where Correa spoke to Fulmer on the mound and told him what the batter was looking for and what to throw. He got out of the inning and the Twins actually won the game. He's just a very smart player, in addition to his other gifts and offerings. If things get out of hand and someone is going to offer $300M plus, I can't blame the Twins if they balk and move on. There comes a point as a mid-market team where you just have to say "enough is enough". But what if the FO just says 8yrs and $280-290M? It's a record deal for the Twins, and I believe for an infielder, based on annual value. Is it enough for Correa to stay? Is it enough for Boras, who has a good relationship with the Twins? The Twins settle SS for several years with easy movement of other top/quality prospects to change positions and still do what they do best. It gives the Twins one of the best ballplayers in all of MLB for several years. It even allows $ left over for a generally young roster to add a few more pieces to the puzzle, moving Kepler and Urshela, and go with additional youth. NOT saying it's going to happen. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the idea. But I AM starting to wonder if it's feasible and smart to make a transcendental move for the organization to do something like this. And so I beg forgiveness for yet ANOTHER Correa article. But the wheels are turning in my head right now and wondering.

I just wanted to add a little but to this. Jeffers had 55 AB's in the brief 2020 season. I think the numbers he posted, at least, show some of his potential, even with a down 2021 and 2022. With the short 2020 season and missed time this past year with his broken thumb, he's still accumulated only 591 PA and 534 AB. He's got power and while he's been streaky the past 2 years, the power is legitimate and he's shown flashes. He was actually on a nice upward trend when he got hurt last year. He's hit everywhere previously, is still only 25yo, and I think there's some untapped potential just waiting for greater consistency. Defensively, I'd like to see either his accuracy or release get better to help control the run game for sure. But his 22% CS in 2021 was only slightly below league average in 2021, though he dipped in 2022. How much of that was him vs the staff not holding runners I don't know. But, while I just can't recall the exact numbers, through the first couple of months last year, before things started to slide, the Twins had something like 16 games where they allowed 3 or fewer runs and he was behind the plate for like a dozen of those. Throwing out runners, preventing passed balls, are important and I'd like to see improvement there. But he's not awful by any means. But I've always maintained that a catcher's primary function is to call a good game, set a good target, and just "handle" the staff and imbue confidence in/for them. And that's why I think the Twins like him, in addition to some untapped offensive potential. I get why some look at the offensive numbers the past 2 years, (though I believe his 86OPS+ in 2022 was about league average for catchers), see a few passed balls and lack of a cannon of an arm, and want better. And nothing I'm going to say, or was written above by jmlease1, is going to directly change those opinions at this time. And that's fine. But I also remember a time when Garver was just "never going to be a regular catcher" and that turned out pretty good after a time. I want more, and frankly, I'm expecting more. And I think Jeffers does the important stuff pretty well. And I'm absolutely giving him all of 2023 to show what he can potentially do. But I DO want a good partner to pair him with. And I repeat, I think Narvaez, Barnhart as a second choice, are quality, experienced backstops with solid bats, despite each having a down 2022, who fit as great co-catcher options. I think it would be a huge mistake for the FO to sit around and wait for one to fall in their lap and hope. Be aggressive and go get the one you like and MAKE IT HAPPEN. This is too important a position to ignore and then hope. I think Contreras is an excellent ballplayer. And I would circle back to him quickly if some things don't fall in to place. The Twins need at least 1, if not 2, quality RH bats for the lineup. One should be an OF. The other COULD BE at SS depending on how serious the FO, and ownership, are about a fair and real deal for Correa, etc. But even then, they could jump on Bell as a 1B/DH with Miranda taking over 3B. IMO, Contreras would be great. But why not a quality partner to team with Jeffers to stabilize and improve at catcher and look for RH bats who could/would/should play on a more daily basis to improve the lineup?

Narvaez at $6M is my #1 choice to work with Jeffers. Barndhart is my #2. Both have good reputations as backstops and can hit a little and display some pop/power. Both are LH batters. Both are coming off down seasons and should be good players at good prices. I'm more worried about a quality RH OF, at least 1 BP arm, and figuring out the SS situation right now.

I think his September and AFl are indicators that his trajectory is trending upward, even with questions about his defense. If your offense is good enough, they will find a spot/role for you. I think his role is going to be every day player at 4 or 5 positions. Not saying he can't/won't be a "starter", just thinking he could be super valuable and successful playing all over on a daily basis. But his value is a little low right now based on a mediocre 2021 and less than ideal start to 2022. And farmerguychris echoes something I've been saying for a couple weeks now: time to spend some $ and quit trading away prospects.

OR, instead of trading even more prospects for either one of the 30 and 30yo+ veterans on 1yr deals they could KEEP their prospects and spend the same $ or a little more in FA. Rodon and Bassitt would look outstanding in the Twins rotation without losing any additional prospects. Remember a year ago when Manea was considered one of the top available trade options? Well, after a down year he's available without having to trade for him. And there are a handful of similar arms out there that could be solid options in the "Gray or Mahle" quality range it would be nice to plug in if depth is the answer.

What's so frustrating is the FO has $50M to spend, and maybe more depending on the futures of Kepler and Urshela. Gausman and Ray each received deals last offseason for 5yrs and about $105-110M total. (Pretty sure I have those numbers right.) Rodon is approximately the same age, has just as good of stuff, can be a difference maker, and should cost relatively the same. We aren't talking an 8yr and $200M plus. Does anyone really think 5yrs and $100-ish M is going to destroy future Twins payrolls? Risk? Yes. But tell me any SP you could trade for or sign and GUARANTEE me he's not going to have an injury at some point? Right now, with a little additional roster maneuvering and guys, the Twibs could sign/re-sign a TOP SS, (hint hint), sign Rodon, and still have a few $M left over for a co-catcher, BP arm and maybe a RH OF. As I said in another similar OP, the books are very clean and at least a little additional $ comes off next year. So if not NOW, then WHEN?

Agree with you about 90%. But with no slight to Maeda or Ryan, I'm not sure a 100% Ober might not be our 3rd best starter right now.

I was impressed by Winder early last year in both roles, even if his K numbers were lower than hoped for. And then he had the shoulder issue and just wasn't the same pitcher the rest of the year. And from what I've read, his FB was the pitch hit hardest and most often last year. But is that skewed by his second half? Because again, I liked what I saw to begin the year. I'd be tempted to put Winder #1 on the list if he's 100% and ready to go. But for now, I think I'm going to go with Varland in the top spot. I think I agree that SWR might have the better career and greater impact, but will be behind Varland to begin with. FWIW, if one of these guys end up being a really good middle/long swing man, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I think this is a very salient OP. Every team in baseball wants to have an ACE, Cy Young candidate to lead their staff. But there's only a few of them that really qualify as such. Period. And they aren't on the shelf waiting for a team to come along and drop them in their cart. And how often are they traded? And if you look at history, most every ACE you can name was just a good pitcher at first and then developed in to ACE caliber. So the "we need to go get an ACE" argument just falls on deaf ears to me. But you DO need quality pitchers. And you need depth. Right now, healthy, the Twins staff looks pretty good and offers some young depth as well. Unfortunately, there are enough question marks that....and here I go saying it again...I'd be looking to add someone as good as Gray or Mahle, if I can't find someone better. I want to begin 2023 with too much pitching, and move guys to the pen or down to AAA with an option, rather than have too little. And personally, I think there's a handful of guys out there that could be solid additions in FA that would only cost $. I totally agree we need a much better pen as well. But when you look at the current candidates, as opposed to the beginning of 2022, it's very different. Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, a healthy Alcala, a young Moran looking pretty good, long and middle relief options available, things don't look too bad there. I'd be in full favor of bringing back Fulmer, who's been really solid since transitioning to the pen. But I also really like brining Hand "home" to add a strong veteran LH to the pen. But the gist of Brian's article is pretty spot on: the offense, for a variety of reasons, simply didn't come through often enough in 2022. Injuries had a lot to do with that, of course. Polanco was one of the Twins top performers the 1st half. Kepler just isn't as bad as he was the second half when hobbled. Larnach and AK have a ton of potential, but also need to be on the field and able to play. Etc, etc. The Twins were one of the very best teams in all of MLB at getting a runner in from 3B, but near the bottom in advancing or scoring a runner from 2B. Where is the disconnect there? I don't know if the issue is horrible luck, a poor approach by the players or what. And you can't just clean house and turn over the entire team. Better health will help. But better roster construction will help. Sanchez's bat keeps regressing? Well, he's gone, so add one of the solid veterans out there to team with Jeffers. Garlick just isn't an every day option when pressed in to extended play? Then get a better RH hitting OF who is and can be. I don't think the player side of the roster is bad at all. There's a lot of solid players there. But different pieces make up a different puzzle. And I think they need do need to add and remove a couple of pieces for a different combination.

I like this idea, in theory. Actually makes a ton of sense and it's possible the Brewers might want to re-tool at this time. And while the Twins system is...depending on your perspective...a little short on pitching prospects or recovering from some bad/injured seasons, they have at least a couple arms the Brewers would probably like as well as some very interesting INF and OF options. And my opinion is, and has been, that the FO should treat the staff just EXPECTING that someone is going to be hurt or not ready. So I think an addition makes sense from a depth perspective. (And I like the look of the guys we have now, all 100%) But I'm tired of trading away prospects for veterans. Woodruff might just make a difference. So I'm not saying no. But how about spending some $ for a change and NOT trading away more prospects? Rodon for 4-5yrs at $25 per is simply not going to destroy the financial structure of the franchise in any way. Bassitt would come a little shorter and cheaper, probably wouldn't be as good as Rodon, but would still be quality and give us that depth.

Lewis, Martin, Lee, and Julien are very talented prospects who display everything we want and need. And all of them could be a part of 2023, or 2024. But none of them have arrived YET! So we want to debate trading away one of the best players on the entire roster for a maybe to open up another hole in the lineup? There is no way I would trade away one of the best hitters in my lineup, one of the better 2B in all of MLB, in favor of trusting prospects or bench pieces to fill his role unless I got something tremendous back. Arraez is a competent 2B. So is Gordon. But they aren't Polanco. With a little work, Julien just might be a Polanco replacement. But he's not there yet, despite great promise. Just now way I'm trading away one of the very best players on my team until someone proves he's ready to replace him.

I don't know what the FO has in mind, much less what they'll actually do. But as I've stated before, we have pretty clean books right now, and just as clean the following year unless we re-sign some guys to extensions: Gray, Mahle, as examples. If the time isn't right now, when will it be? Rodon, as an example, is probably $25M for 4 or 5 years. There is some risk to be sure, but that's not a $200M plus deal to decimate any franchise. IMO, though I like the rotation on paper and the young guys who have reached the ML level, and a couple who have had a cup of coffee so far, there are enough question marks that I just EXPECT someone to be hurt or not ready, etc. And yes, they might dip in to the secondary pool, which offers a handful of interesting options, and go depth vs big move. And that depth piece might be important and pretty good. But the team and payroll are set up to make one, good, fairly expensive deal that could pay dividends without having adverse affect in the future. The timing is good if they want to make a move like this.

I feel the $25M is applicable, but I did say 3-4yr plunge. And while I like Rodon, he was ignored before 2021 by just about everyone except Chicago and didn't have the big offers before 2022. And I get why, to some degree. But after the past couple if seasons, is everyone suddenly convinced? No? So I'm trying to weigh all of those factors together and think 4yrs might do it. But you're right that 3yrs won't get it done. 100% with you on that.

OR. the Twins could do this and bump the payroll a simple 5% and have enough to add a solid catcher and pen arm. With those additions you just about have my dream team for 2023. But I didn't do this for my blueprint idea as I just thought no way we make a pair of big moves like this. But I would love it.

A good post! If I interpret your post correctly, like me, you aren't sure about jettisoning Kepler at this point? To me, he's worth keeping for his defense and league average production while hitting lower in the lineup. They need a RH hitter who is not the "not quite ready" Celestino for an important part of the lineup. I think, when we talk about risks, we have to talk about calculated risks. I'm still very confused and conflicted about the Rogers trade. I wanted to keep him and add another quality RH RP to allow Rogers to just fill his role. Instead, they ended up with TWO holes in the pen with the flier on Paddack being healthy. Obviously it didn't turn out well. But after Rogers was pushed in to a role in which he shouldn't have been placed, he imploded. And Paddack imploded. And do we have to yet again rehash how the FO just falls in love with players? Ugh! I would have literally taken ANY other pitcher than Pagan against Cleveland at one point. As would we all at some point. BUT, can you imagine a still young, and health Paddack in 2024 looking really good and everyone screaming to re-sign him? May not happen, but I could see it. Risk? Maeda had some risk, but he was amazing in 2020 with some tweaks. He looked DOMINATE in ST 2021 before his arm gave out when the season started. Would we give up that amazing 2020? Mahle looked normal, went on the IL, looked fine, was acquired, looked fine, and then he didn't. He has no chronic history. He looked good when gotten. Then all hell broke loose. Doctor exams and 2 MRI's say nothing is wrong. Mahle says he's fine, feels good, and just had a tired arm because he didn't have time to ramp up correctly and over extended himself early. Is he right? Did the FO take a risk? Maybe so. And MAYBE Gray is in a similar situation due to his hamstring bothering him so much in 2022. I do believe the FO DOES take chanes here and there. But as a mid-market team, you have to at times, don't you? But man, with a normal offseason and some mean included, you have to wonder/speculate what those "chances" might produce with a healthy Gray and Mahle taking their normal turn in the rotation. Either or both could be extension candidates, especially Mahle. And again, what IF Paddack looks good in 2024? I get taking chances doesn't always work. But sometimes it does. Maeda in 2020. And sometimes it pays off later. But smart chances are what you have to try at times. Pineda is an example. Paid to do nothing for a year and then provided positive results. The FO has to do better, and be RIGHT! But sometimes risk DOES pay off and I agree they aren't afraid to take chances. BUT, there is a difference in risk. When your books are mostly clean now and near future, with talent on hand, you need to take the risk factor up another notch.

I really like most everything here. Really well thought out! I do think you're too high $ on Bassitt, who I like as a "settle" SP instead of Rodon. I would pencil Larnach in RF and leave Kirilloff out of any plans, as of now, and maybe move Merrifield to LF. (Less territory for Larnach to cover and he has a great arm). I think half of MLB would have loved to have Merrifield on their team over the past several years. Always loved the way he plays ball. Would Toronto want to give him up? How much would it cost to get him? Always thought he was a perfect fit for the Twins. You have a very good plan in place!

If the intent is to add as good as Gray, and I'd include a healthy Male, there are some FA out there that I like as possible options at least close if not as good for, what I would expect, in the $14-18M per range. Bassitt, Tallon, Wacha, Walker, Eovaldi are just a handful of names at 30yo plus that could provide solid, mid-rotation production and reliability. Quintana saw a huge resurgence in 2022 and could be very interesting on a short deal considering his career and his 2022. None are top of the rotation arms, but all have the ability to challenge for the #3 spot and throw better than that at times. And while many, if not all, have some question marks, they all offer a lot more potential than Bundy or Archer. I am NOT opposed to making a trade. Not in the least. Even with moving a lot of milb talent last year, the Twins system is NOT decimated. While not all are rookies any longer, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Ryan, Ober, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Duran, Jax, Moran, Wallner, Lewis, Martin, and Julien are a collection of arms and position players who are all generally young and have either reached the ML level or are very close and should be part of AAA in 2023. And there are a few other "interesting" guys I'm forgetting or leaving out for the moment. And not everyone is going to reach their potential or make a difference. But the "problem" in the system is that so many are at the highest level, or very close, and then there is a major drop off...with a few exceptions...until we get to A and rookie ball. Prospects are there to build your team and to also be traded to build your team. But unless there is just a really smart deal to be had whereby we can acquire a really quality arm that doesn't "rob" the ML roster or "decimate" the system, I'm just tired of trading away young talent right now. So again, I'm OK with a trade if there's a really good deal that makes sense. Maybe it would be a pair of deals where we get said SP and trade someone else for a couple prospects. Maybe a 3-way trade. But, IMO, Rodon is the almost perfect addition to be added via $, and dispense with the whole trade idea. He will still only be 30yo in 2023. He's coming off a pair of quality back to back seasons. Being LH sure doesn't hurt. There ARE injury risks associated with him. I get that. But he's a risk worth taking, IMO. He's not the proverbial ACE SP, but so few are, and they're not usually available. Verlander, DeGrom and even Nola, aren't coming here for 2023. And while you/we can argue at length about the Twins and modern baseball throwing pitchers only 5-6 IP per start, the Twins are good at "managing" IP for their starters. A quality BP that has some middle relievers is paramount, but I think they are very close to having a really nice 2023 pen with depth and versatility with what they have at their disposal, while adding at least one more reliable, proven arm. And when you are a mid-market team, some proverbial ACE doesn't just drop in to your lap very often the way Correa did. Or the way Morris did back in the day. You need to build the pen, have depth everywhere on your staff, and TAKE A CHANCE. Rodon IS that chance. The Twins wanted him for 2022, but the Giants got him. The Twins called the Giants in case they were in "sell" mode because they wanted him again. He's the perfect choice, even with risk, as the books are mostly clean, and will be again in 2024, even with an extension or maybe two. Give Rodon 3 or 4yrs at $25M and make it happen. The payroll can afford it, he fits a need, he can make a difference, and even at 26-28GS and 160 IP, and no more, he can make said difference. The risk/reward quotient, to me, just leans heavily towards the reward side.

I'm doing this a bit different than others have as we've all seen the proposed salaries and expected names listed over and again. I thought about waiting until the WS was done to see if there were any surprises in cuts made by other teams in the post. But I don't see enough said surprises on the horizon to make an impact. A couple brief notes: 1] I DON'T see a payroll cut. The current payroll MO of the Twins has been to stay about dead center of total team payroll the past few years. And while finances and inflation issues could be discussed, there's an awful lot of $ still flowing in to MLB and I seriously doubt we see any league wide cutting of spending. In fact, I'm still expecting a normal, leage-wide bump in spending. It may not be large, but it's normal in the cost of doing business. Further, if ownership is concerned with butts in the seats, the best way to fill those seats is to put a good product on the field that wins, competes, and provides excitement. 2] I am taking the approach, as an amateur, fantasy FO, that is keeping in line with a "normal" approach in that I'm not going to trade the system or go nuts by blowing things up. And working AS the hypothetical FO, I'm actually looking out for my job, so I want to fill needs and build the best, most competitive team I can without some crazy blowup. On PAPER, my team has few holes to fill to be quite good. But I simply can't trust in so many potential "IF's" as to not provide my team with even greater depth and options. I need and want my team to WIN and compete, put butts in the seats, without depleting what I have been building. 3] Lastly, total dollars to spend is a little unsettled depending on what you read and who you listen to. I'm going with a recent breakdown, that was very detailed, by Gleeman and John on their podcast, that I believe reflects the TD Blueprint spot on or very close. With Pagan gone one way or another, even after arbitration, the Twins should be at about $95M before trades or FA. Enough preamble. But it's going to be detailed. CATCHER: The Twins don't HAVE to add a LH option, but it would be nice and advantageous. Fortunately, there are 2 quality options to add to Jeffers in Barhart and Narvaez. They're quality, experienced backstops who are OK hitters with occasional power. They are 32 and 31yo. I like both. Narvaez has more experience in the AL, has a better career OPS, and is coming off a $5M deal. MY SIGNING: Narvaez for $6M per on a 2yr deal for $12M per. I might even toss in a 3rd option year as the Twins best catching prospects are all in A ball. SS: Yes, this is a hole to be filled. I'm obviously looking for a reliable stop-gap. And I'm really torn here. Two FA in Iglesias and Andrus that fit the bill perfectly, though with different thoughts about each. If the Yankees just dump IFK, he might be my 1st choice as he's similar defensively, probably better than either Iglesias or Andrus, and probably only slightly more expensive, and offers a little more defensive flexibility. If they don't cut him, we'd have to trade for him, though he'd probably come fairly cheap. And I've heard sound ideas for trading for Jorge Mateo from Baltimore, coming off his best season. His 2022 season shows pop/power and SB speed/production, but he also can't hit or get OB. So how much is his offensive "explosion" worth or real? Frankly, while I think the Twins milb system is still pretty solid...a little top and bottom heavy with not much in the middle...I just don't feel like making a trade unless it comes REALLY CHEAP. And I just don't trust an additional output season from Mateo, who again can't hit or get OB, and I'm not sure a year of IKF is anything more than a contract for Iglesias or Andrus. Call it a gut hunch, I like Iglesias just a little more than Andrus's uptick in 2022. Their career OPS and numbers are almost the same. My gut tells me defensive history will make Iglesias the better choice. MY SIGNING: Iglesias for $6M. ($1M bump from 2022) OF: The Twins have needed a solid RH hitting OF for at least 2yrs now. I never bought in to Celestino to be that guy in 2022 despite his start. He just wasn't ready and Garlick is just an OK, reserve kind of option. The Twins need better than that. Larnach has flashed how good he might be healthy. And neither of his injuries are chronic, just unfortunate. With hope, luck, and surgery, Kirilloff will still be the 1B/OF/BAT we all hope he can be. But in no way am I banking on AK being 100% ready for the start of 2023. And while I think Wallner will be pretty damn good and dangerous, I would love him to get a little more AAA time just to polish his defense a little more at the least. I'm NOT saying to NOT trust one of your best prospects and his potential and run with him. What I AM saying is, when you have some questions about your OF construction and have Kepler on board and under contract, maybe you hold on to that to begin your season. Look, even as a fan, Kepler should just play a great RF, and fill in behind Buck once in a while with Gordon, but should always hit no higher than 5th, and should be in the bottom 3rd most days where he can be dangerous. But despite various thoughts he might be/should be moved, I want him in RF in my model to begin 2023. Who IS the RH option that makes sense? Pollock would be nice even at 35yo, but he's coming off a down year and a player option for something like $13M. So he's not available. Wil Myers has never been worth his contact. At 31yo, would he take a much smaller deal? McCutchon, even at 36yo, MIGHT offer value as RH option for one more year. But the guy I'm looking at, and the Twins should be as well, is Mitch Haniger. He's a late bloomer who's battled some injuries, but he's produced when healthy. 32yo, he's not going to get a major or long term deal. He only made $7.75M in 2022 and I believe, is arbitration 3. Even IF the Twins move Kepler, he's a perfect fit for the RH bat the OF needs. (He's even got 70 GS in CF as a sub option). And right now, there are ZERO RH OF options close to the ML level in the system. MY SIGNING: Mitch Haniger at $10M per 2yrs with a possible 3rd year option and buyout. BULLPEN: Honestly, I really like the initial BP makeup for 2023. I SO WANT to just re-sign Fulmer at $5M and be done with it. I always expected some regression from Lopez because what he was doing was unsustainable. But we saw flashes and the stuff is still there. Duran, Jax, Thielbar, the improvement of Moran, Alcala back, a HOST of possible MR that includes Sands, Winder, and Henriquez and others...all of whom could still move to the rotation in time...makes me think just bringing back Fulmer, who has been VERY SOLID in his year and a half conversion to the pen a smart choice at said $5M. And then someone, Riverbrian, mentioned Hand on a 1yr $6M and I gave pause. Moran's future looks pretty bright. His reverse splits are excellent. Why not a 3rd LH option for the pen who is proven? MY SIGNING: Hand at 1yr and $6M. (But I'm still OK with the RH Fulmer as an option). STARTING PITCHING: The Twins, again on paper, are just fine here. Verlander and DeGrom are not coming. Nola has a $16M team option and I don't see the Phillies not picking it up. But with ANY kind of health, a rotation of Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober Is deep and pretty damn good, especially if the pen is well constructed. Varland, SWR, Winder, maybe Henriqez and Sands and a rebounding Balazovic all provide depth. But if I'm the FO/GM, I HAVE to approach 2023 just EXPECTING that something is going to go wrong, and someone is going to be hurt. I have clean books for 2023. And while there might be logical re-signs for 2024, Kepler, Maeda, Urshela, Gray, and Make might all come off the books. It's time to be brave and bold! Sign 31yo Rodon to a 3yr $25M per deal. Maybe toss in a lesser deal with a buyout 4th yr. I know he's not an ACE, but there are so few. And I know there is some injury risk. But he's coming off a pair of healthy and excellent years. Even at 28 GS and 160 IP he's a potential season changer. With clean books now and the immediate future, this veteran LH, who you've already been tied to and like, is worth the risk. MY SIGNING: Rodon. Time to take a 3-4yr plunge. And his signing DOESN'T interrupt any pipeline migration as Ryan and Ober might be mainstays, but there's room for Varland and SWR and others to contribute and be ready for 2024. I'm not trading if I can help it. For ONCE, I'm being aggressive and getting what I want and need. And not blowing up payroll or mortgaging the future. And YES, I'm cheating on the roster due to options and "expected" injuries that allow for some flux. CATCHER: Jeffers/ Narvaez INFIELD: Arreaez, Miranda, Polanco, Iglesias, Urshela, Gordon (OF) OUTFIELD: Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Haniger I DESPISE a 12 man player roster, but this allows for a 13th man to be added immediately, such as Garlick as a RH specialist or another utility player, maybe a sudden riser in Martin, or the Twins opening the season with a 14 man pitching staff, which I'm not sure they will need. This allows a healthy AK to make the roster and give the ENTIRE roster and lineup even greater position and roster flexibility. STARTING PITCHING: Rodon, Gray, Male, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober. A 6 man rotation or someone in the pen or on the IL. Again, I'm hedging bets that SOMEONE isn't ready to go. BULLPEN: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, Hand, Moran, Alcala, Winder, WHOEVER amongst many, including SP options who may contribute to the pen as well as the rotation during the season. So basically, a 27 man roster cheat with 1 spot TBD between pitching or a player spot and expecting at least one injured pitcher, or sent down on option to reach 26. I'm right about $148M at this point. Right about where I expect the average 2023 ML payroll to be, keeping the Twins also average. The entire team is improved overall, except for SS, with solid depth. And there is room for young pitching to show and $ off the books in 2024 to account for the one big SP signing. Nobody is blocked. And there is room to let go or trade both Urshela and Kepler at any time, more or less. but I'm bringing both back to start 2023 to make sure I have a lineup in place that I can count on. Kiriloff and Wallner will have a say about that. But all they do, along with the young pitching arms, is give me more room for potential trades, and more clean books in 2024 with even more young talent stepping forward.

Absolutely one of my favorite players. And, IMO, one of their very best. I think he's vastly underrated by many. He's a competent SS but a fine 2B. He hits, gets OB, makes contact, is very difficult to SO, has legitimate XB and HR power, runs the bases well, and is one of my top choices to be at the plate in a clutch situation. His only negative was a year and a half of ankle issues that decimated his production, though he still played. I believe he was in the top 2-3 of most all Twins offensive categories the first half of 2022 before an injured second half. I may be wrong, but it was his back and/or something else but not his ankles. So that may be a good thing?? Still only 29yo, I think he has a lot of ball left in him. I don't think he's going anywhere for the next couple of years, and that is very much a good thing. HOWEVER, and I almost hate myself for saying this, I can see a few different scenarios over the next couple of seasons whereby Lewis, Martin, and Julien may be younger, cheaper, possibly healthier, and possibly just as productive. But for now, I just want him 100% for 2023 to help lead the offense.

There are a lot of ways to build a lineup. And while it would be great to have an All Star type candidate at every position, it's just about impossible to have that. If Correa is not a re-sign, then a new reality applies to the 2023 Twins; "how best to spend $50M to make this the best team possible, and who plays SS next year?" If the Twins truly believe in Lewis....to a lesser degree probably both Martin and Lee...then a stop-gap of some quality makes sense. And there are a few to choose from, with Iglesias being amongst them. Andrus would also apply as a solid option. The aforementioned IKF would also be a quality candidate, if made available cheaply or simply released. For the short term, the offense would be obviously lacking much punch from the SS position. But the Twins offense would not be decimated in any way with a 100-120 game Buxton and a healthy Miranda, Arraez, Polanco, Larnach, Kepler with a RH OF option, Jeffers and a good partner, Kirilloff, Wallner, etc, etc. Plenty of potential for a non difference making SS in the batter's box for a half year or so with the lineup a healthy clubhouse should provide. Just no butcher with the glove or sub .200 hitter please!

Almost exactly echoing Chpettit19. I voted the Padres for now, if a winner truly exists. They seemed to give up nothing to get a couple good months of Rogers. That's pretty much it. But the Bewers and Twins basically got nothing from the deal initially. The couple good starts from Paddack were more than wiped out by the damage Pagan did. Now, if Paddack comes back healthy and good to go in 2024, then the Twins end up probably winning in the long run.

I don't think Colorado would do it either, unless it was indeed part of a dump of sorts. But it's an idea brought up in this thread, and another before, so I offered up a thought. I do wonder if Colorado should rebuild and maybe the Twins could help them with that and maybe Kepler could be part of a deal. In general, I'm a bit ambivalent about adding a SP. On paper, I really like our top 5 with some young depth that needs opportunity, and will probably get it. But if I'm the GM...maybe even a little worried about my job after a pair of bad seasons...I almost have to approach 2023 with the idea that at least one of my SP will have a devastating injury. And as a result, I'm thinking it might be nice to have too many options vs too few. I don't want a repeat of last year. And I do find Marquez to be an intriguing option if they go that route. But I don't see Kepler as a #1 piece in any kind of deal. And I'm not sure he's going anywhere in 2023 other than the Twins OF. But that's all off original topic.

Kepler should not bat leadoff, in general, or be a #3-5 hitter, in general. He should hit lower in the lineup and be rested against LHP as much as possible. But despite his inconsistencies, he's basically a league average hitter for his career. So he's never been bad as a producer, just never/seldom been a very good one. The change in shift should help, it's just hard to know how much. Another 10 hits? 20? But continuing to hit weak grounder toward the 1B-2B hole won't allow for any improvement. Note: I'm not sure Kepler is traded anywhere with current youth/injury questions in the OF. (But again, they absolutely MUST add a decent RH OF). But were he moved, I love the Colorado idea for Marquez. I'd love to see what he might do with a change of scenery.

I hadn't honestly considered Bogaerts previously as I simply expect Boston to step up and keep him. His offense has been pretty damn good previously and yes, he just might be a solid 3B/2B after 3 yrs and even DH a little. It's not a bad idea really. But....why pay him $35M per for 5yrs and not pay the younger Correa the same $ for an additional 2-3yrs?? We're talking same annual cost and the same age the contract expires. I don't like the idea of my SS being transitioned in a couple of years to another spot because he can't play the position any longer and costing $35M. I think I'd trust Correa to stick at SS longer were I a betting man. And his sticking at SS longer works for Lewis, Lee, Miranda, and probably Julien as well to flesh out the infield. Not to mention Polanco may not go anywhere. Again, it's not a bad idea on the surface. I just don't see any solid fit after the first couple of years.