DocBauer

Chpettit19 pretty much nailed it on the head, but I'm going to add a bit. Parity is an illusion. It is in every single sport. Period! It doesn't exist and will never exist in the trusist form of definition. But what we're talking about, as chpettit19 basically stated well, is for teams/organizations having a LEVEL PLAYING FIELD in order to compete! Vanimal46 is correct that MLB has had the most alternate champions of any sport over the past 10-15-20 years. The problem is, even with that variance, the CHANCE to win, compete, even have a winning season has a very wide variation. I mean, as a Twins fan, do I want a decade or more of losing and barely contending to have 2 good years and a shot? Does winning ONE championship after 20yrs with little to no chance really pay off? Ultimately, is that FUN? Hoping the stars align just right and you can go all in every 10-20yrs and have a chance? The Yankees haven't won the WS in a while. The Dogers have continued to be one of the highest payroll and winningest teams for years now, along with the Yankees, but they've won a single WS in the last decade. But they've also won more and contended more than about anyone else. The NFL is a different animal due to the nature of a game a week, and their marketing. (And marketing is a different conversation). But their financial structure is very different than MLB. So is the NBA. I laugh when people say the NFL is NOT on a "parity" level. Some teams make a ton of more money than other organizations, but that's local market money and merchandising. Each team has a floor and a ceiling that allows EVERY team to compete if the FO and coaching does a good job. Bad drafting and bad coaching? You lose. Good drafting and good coaching? You win. The NBA is similar to MLB due to guaranteed contracts. So maybe MLB needs a floor and instead of a cap, a continued luxury tax or some sort of exception for re-signing your own players. I don't have an exact answer at this moment, and I'm not being paid to do so. But a draft lottery to prevent teams from tanking is ridiculous! The MLB is a crapshoot from the 1st pick to the last with very, very little exception. In ALL sports, including MLB, "tanking" is often a poorly used phrase to describe a losing team looking at young players, selling off those that either don't fit or might bring back prospects or salary relief to address FA to re-build. IMO, MLB are short-sighted, and while I hate to use the word, they are stupid. In general, they refuse to see the logic of growing the game. And growing the game grows interest and potential profits. But I also put the onus on the players and their union as well. Hell, I wanted baseball! I didn't want a stoppage and a short season! But they were in prime position to DEMAND a payroll floor and SOME sort of cap or luxury cap, and equitable profit sharing across the board to make MLB establish an even playing field for all teams. The bite is, a floor actually allows for greater money for all players in the union! And if you're an owner sending $M's to lower market teams, wouldn't you want to see organizations actually SPEND that money vs pocketing it? For the health and growth of MLB, I wish the union had dug in their heels more, even if it decreased the viability of the 2022 season. I think an opportunity was missed. Post-covid, I'm wondering if declining attendance and changes in how people spend their hard earned $ will have an affect the owners can't deny going forward. We're obviously a few years away now from the next collective bargaining. But if MLB wants to grow and not stagnate and begin to lose fans and viewers, I sure hope they figure this stuff out because it's a great game that is losing it's foothold. A floor, SOME kind of cap, maybe with an NBA print of being able to retain your current players more easily, more equitable profit sharing, and better marketing is the answer to a "parity" issue where a well run organization has a chance to win is the answer. You don't run your orgnization well, you lose. That's how MLB SHOULD be run going forward. It may take an act of God or Congress to make it happen. But it shouldn't. It should be half way intelligent parties on both sides figuring it out. Hmmm...come to think of it, maybe it will take divine intervention.

This coming from a fan of Kepler who has always rooted for him and hoped he would nudge his offense up another notch, and who has been disappointed he has never been able to. 1] His career OPS+ is 101. While that number is somewhat skewed by 2019 and 2020, his best 2 years, that's true of every player, where you have lower and greater seasons. So he's not great offensively, never has been, but he's been league average for his career. He's also a gold glove caliber defensive player, which gives him a higher WAR value overall, and raises said overall value. His "problem" is that offensively he should be batting, mostly, lower in the lineup than he's generally been used. 2] His contract for 2023 is not only not expensive, a "normal" Kepler remains league average offensively while having his great defense. But he also fills an important role in 2023 at this point. There remains real hope...you have to have HOPE...that Kirilloff's latest procedure will allow him to continue his career and be the player he can be. What they're doing makes sense, but until we see the resuts.... Larnach doesn't have any chronic injury situation at this point. He's had 2 distinctive and un-related injuries that simply aren't chronic in nature, just unfortunate. But we've seen what he can do when healthy. Wallner has established himself as a top prospect due to numbers and continued improvement. He's looked solid in his debut..which probably should have been a week or two earlier...and that debut will only assist him with making that final step on a permanent basis in the future. But to move Kepler and just trust everything is going to work out is a fools errand. For what has to be at least the 3rd season in a row, the Twins need a RH OF, whether he can play CF or not. But you can't go in to 2023 yet again with only Celestino and Garlick as your RH OF! And you can't just trust everyone else is just going to be fine. Kepler isn't just a 4th OF with his career offense, but he SHOULD play some CF, and he SHOULD sit against LHSP IF you actually have a decent RH option to play both corners at least. And I'm fine if Kepler can be included in a deal to bring in a quality rotation arm. But despite his positives, he's still coming off a bad season and won't bring anything of value by himself. And his value, healthy, just being himself, remains a solid player at this point until AK, Larnach, and Wallner have the opportunity to be healthy and prove themselves.

While I have questions and concerns about 2023, I'm in the optimistic camp. HEALTH remains the #1 thing this team needs in order to be better. Are there a lot of "IF's" involved there? Absolutely! But isn't it true that every team has "if's" going in to the next season? Every team wonders if someone is going to be healthy again, if someone rebounds, if a young player develops, if a prospect is going to be ready, etc, etc. Unfortunately, the Twins have a number of those if's and they are primarily health related. But when I look at the rotation, bullpen, and lineup options/depth/possibilities i feel the 2023 Twins have a chance to be pretty good. Shortstop is the only real hole that has to be figured out. So yes, I'm optimistic. However, they can't use better health as a cure all for 2023. They still need to make some smart additions to improve the overall team and to insure that they CAN be good/better especially if some of those if's don't turn out. They still need a catcher to team with Jeffers, and I think they need to look higher than Leon. I think Leon is a great backstop, but I'd rather have him back on a milb deal if possible, and bring in a solid catcher who can hit a little bit. He doesn't have to be LH, just a solid, experienced catcher who can hit a little bit. I still think another solid RP, which might be Fulmer. But even then, how about another quality arm in case someone is hurt or implodes? And I'm not talking about a $10M signing, just a solid, experienced arm. I'd rather have too many arms, too many options than be scrambling yet again. They simply can't ignore bringing in a solid, RH hitting OF to split time with all of their LH bats. And he doesn't have to be an All Star. But Celestino is still developing and while Garlick is OK and has done relatively well the past 2yrs when healthy, is that the best you can do? Is that what you're going to settle for? With Gordon and Celestino able to help cover CF...Kepler as well if he's back...said RH hitting OF doesn't have to be able to play CF. It would be a bonus, but not needed. My biggest question mark is the rotation. Again, if you just go down the list, it's easy to be optimistic by the names and the depth of options between veterans and young guys. I can see a rotation, rather easily, that is a collection of #2 and #3 arms with some nice looking young #4 and #5 guys with potential. And that's before Paddack hopefully comes back around mid year. But do you stand pat when you should have a good $50M or more to spend? I think you still add if you're smart and want to properly hedge your bets. Can you move bats to someone like Miami for a promising arm? Would the Rockies finally begin a rebuild and move Marquez who has a live arm and is young enoug to grow with a change of scenery? Can you do so without either opening holes at the ML level or dig even deeper in to your milb system? The FA market is not going to look like this past offseason where you had a plethora of choices. And this is just me spit balling a little bit. The one guy I'm curious about is Rodon, who's been targeted twice by the Twins this past year. He might be the one FA arm that might make a difference and he only costs $, not player capital. He might be an injury waiting to happen despite coming off the 2 best seasons of his career. But the risk might be worth the reward on a 3yr deal. Yes, I'm optimistic for 2023, as long as the FO isn't complacent and only trust in better health and just rewind 2022 back again. But if they do add another rotation arm, it's got to be someone at least as good, if not better, than what they already have. No more Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy or Archer types. If they are even remotely tempted to do something like that, then just roll with the young arms all the way and build them up instead of another re-tread.

First and foremost, not to derail the topic, we have to know the Correa situation. No matter how much he and his family like being here, love Minnesota, love the Twins, even want to be here, he's going to opt out for a longer and richer deal. Now, there was a ZERO chance he'd be with the Twins before he actually ended up with the Twins. Wow! Someone is going to give him a 5-7yr deal worth $200-250M. Could he get more? Yes. I'm just looking at the minimum. Could he love being a Twin so much he'd sign for multiple years and $30M with maybe a higher annual the first few years? Sure. But I'm still seeing a 10% chance to MAYBE a 20% chance max! But this is an important situation because it absolutely influences 2023 plans. The Twins have some money to spend. But SOME money and adding another $30+M is very different! It does change the dynamic of this topic. But I'm of the initial opinion he won't be back. So that changes and adds to the premise here. Will the Twins add to the rotation? Sorry to disagree with some, but the system is not "gutted", but ammunition for the future, OR, a potential trade has taken a blow. So a trade for someone of high quality might be a real stretch that would hurt is questionable. Example: a trade with Miami. Out of the question? No. Hurt? Absolutely. It would mean the FO better be right about the international signings and have a 2023 draft that is similar to the 2021 draft to re-stock. There was a really smart comment made by someone in a different, recent thread, (forget who), that just "adding" a SP probably wouldn't move the needle unless it was a difference maker. Accurate but not depressing. IMO, the rotation...and the pen which is a slightly different discussion...is actually set up pretty well for 2023 assuming health. Gray is a very good pitcher. Unhappy with the Twins because he wasn't allowed to throw longer? His response when allowed to was: "I need to do better". Maeda is a quality SP who may never throw as well as he did in 2020. But he's been pretty damn good his whole career and should be ready to be at least solid, if not good, post surgery and an entire ramp up to get ready. I've seen comments on his 2021, but he had an OUTSTANDING ST and then his arm gave out just as the season began. So throw that out the window, IMO. Until we hear otherwise, I'm going to assume Mahle's issue is a tired arm that happens. He's had at least 1 MRI, if not 2, that shows no structural damage. He was fine after rest with the Reds, and looked good initially with the Twins. So until something is suddenly uncovered, I'm going to assume that rest and a normal ramp up will have him ready for 2023. Ryan has had one of the best rookie seasons, possibly ever, at least in recent history, for the Twins. Somewhere along the line, possibly due to his covid illness, he lost sharpness on his secondary pitches. He gets that sharpness back, combined with experience, he's a really nice young arm. There is a really, really nice base to work with here. And then you add the promising young arms of Ober and Winder and Varland and the quality year of SWR and a HOPEFUL rebound of Balazovic and things really look promising. But you need 8 SP in any season even if you have good health. And at some point, small injuries and illness, and double headers, etc, you need 10. The Twins need to add at least one arm to the rotation for depth and insurance. We can argue all day about the "pipeline" and how much it's contributed thus far and how much it might do in 2023. But you cant win without pitching. What's the worst that can happen if you add another quality SP? You suddenly have great depth and some good arms are middle relievers? I like who I see coming back, and some young arms, and some potential depth. The ONE GUY who makes so much sense to RAISE the rotation is Rodon. He's been tied strongly to the Twins twice. But he's also got an arm that could implode one day. Is he worth the risk? IDK, but I'd LOVE to see him in our rotation. And if Correa is gone, there is more than enough $ to take a chance. Extremely long story short, we need another good arm to "protect" and deepen the rotation. Can we afford another trade? Do we trust what we have on hand enough for a mid rotation arm? Or do we "go for it" with $ spent for someone who is a risk but high reward type? My guess? No trade. A decent, solid SP FA or we grab the risky Rodon. 50-50 on Rodon .

I get that you're pretty much speaking rhetorically. But when I read your comment, I couldn't help but spill out thoughts. You didn't ask me, but... I GET the Twins philosophy. We don't have a mythical and proverbial ACE like Verlander to lead our staff. And to be fair, there are very few potential HOF ACES that grace many staffs. But we will look for and hopefully develop at least a quality #1. And we will try to fill the rotation with a couple of good #2's and a solid #5, all the while allowing our young SP to rotate in as depth is required. And unless you have an established STUD...again very rare...to lead your staff, numbers indicate we are best letting our quality starters go 5-7 innings and turn it over to the pen. Ideally, with a clean inning to begin. Honestly, kinda sounds smart! Except, if you have either a crappy pen, OR, a pen based on nothing but 1 IP relievers. Then you're just screwed over a season. From what I can deduce, this was, more or less, the PLAN. Additionally, as alluded to, the PLAN was to allow the SP time to build up strength, and experience for younger arms, and then let themselves extend themselves to more 6 and 7 IP games. Any comment attributed to Gray about being disappointed at not pitching longer was explained by himself when offered the opportunity and not being able to do so at one point. His response was he needed to pitch better when given the chance. The practical theory that permeates MLB at this time is 5-6IP by a starter and a strong bullpen. The Twins blew the strong BP right out of the gate. IDK that NOT allowing SP to go longer early in the year and "save" their arms to pitch longer makes sense. Maybe it does for a young arm still developing and learning. And I understand a RP coming in to a clean inning makes sense as well. But unless your SP is going to face the heart of the order a 3rd time, maybe a little more allowance should be shown earlier in the season. I'm not sure " waiting" decreases any sort of injury or production factor. A better built pen makes a difference regardless.

Hey, liked your post and agree to Gordon love. Outplayed everyone else? Can't agree with you there. Larnach is NOT a finished product. Nor is Kirilloff. But the talent and potential of both, and what they've shown when healthy is damn good. Larnach should be 100% coming ST as there is nothing chronic regarding his injuries. I am crossing and double crossing fingers that this latest surgical procedure...makes sense...will allow him to play freely and be the talented player he can be. I love Gordon and have championed him repeatedly over the past couple of years. He's a lock for 2023 and I'm still not certain we've seen the best of him. But he is still best as a super utility player who is in the lineup 4 of 7 games.

One of the worst things that happened in the 2022 milb season was the injury to E Rodriguez who looks like a potential STUD. His development was outstanding and his future looks bright. And while there is no realistic way to include DSL players, as young as they are, in some top 5-7 list, I do applaud you mentioning these kids. Prospect lists are simply speculation, albeit, with experienced opinions. But they fluctuate from year to year, of course. Think Arraez coming from nowhere. Imagine Balazovic and Enlow 100% in body and mind next season how they change rankings. So I take it all with a grain of salt. But if these kids transition well in 2023...and the organization has a very solid base in place to help them do so...imagine the top 30 with all of them

Separate side note: Should Festa be a legitimate #7 after the 5 options listed and Julien? I know he's a #13 pick in the 2021 draft, but he was DOMINATE at 2 A levels in 2022. Just when it looked like he might be running out of gas, he had one of his best starts of the year to finish the Ft Myers season. And it's not like other players didn't have really good years. But he sure teased at "awesomeness" this year.

RJA stole my initial thunder concerning Julien. Even though we talk about him quite a bit, he seems to be an under the radar player and I don't understand why. After being drafted in 2019, he didn't even make his pro debut until 2021. And all he's done is hit, get OB at an amazing clip, collect XB hits and steal bases at a high rate at 3 levels in his first two seasons. He actually looks pretty special offensively. I get his defense is a question mark, despite being used at multiple positions. It's up to him to take all that athleticism and find a spot or two where he can be at least average defensively. I think he may be destined for LF and 2B. With his length, I wouldn't think 1B would be out of the question, even as a backup option. I'm just guessing the glove and/or arm don't play at 3B. Really going to watch him closely in the AFL along with Martin. I would have made Julien a 6th choice if I wrote the OP. As to the rest listed, a fine list and perfect choices. I'm just not surprised by Wallner. I think he, is compared, unfairly, to Rooker. And I get it. They are big sluggers from quality programs that put up big numbers and were even drafted in similar spots. But they are entirely different people/prospects. Wallner will always K a bunch because he's a power hitter. But Wallner has not on had solid BB and OB numbers, but he's been trending positive in all numbers AS HE HAS BEEN RISING in the system. He still has to prove himself going forward, but I do not see another Rooker or poor version of Sano in him. He SHOULD begin 2023 in AAA but he's going to make a mark. I wasn't the biggest fan of SWR initially. And it wasn't about being traded twice or his lost 2021 with the Olympics. And it wasn't about being so young and pushed so hard. I can deal with all of that. I just kept reading 92mph and still working on his secondary stuff. And I kept wondering why he was so highly regarded if that's what his offering were! And I know he's not even close to being a finished product and the proverbial "switch" might happen any day now, but I'm begining to see what others have projected. I don't want to compare Lee to Martin, because it's not fair for a number of reasons. But Lee has been as advertised from the start. But can we just cool the jets for a moment before we state he'll be ready for MLB mid season? No matter how talented, how about we just let him finish his ROOKIE introduction to pro ball and let him spend at least a little time at AA Wichita in 2023 before we anoint him? Let him finish there, go to instructs, go through ST, produce and play well, and then see how quickly he's ready for AAA. As to the future of the left side of the infield, I'm one of those that thinks Miranda is way better at 3B than some think. I mean, rookie bouncing around and adjusting and he's somehow "bad" in a very SSS? Sorry, I don't agree. But it's not hard to picture Lee maybe being even better with Lewis taking over SS. And I do speculate Lewis will be better at SS than Lee, even though I think Lee could be at least decent there.

I wasn't able to watch his debut, but from what I read it sounds like he was pretty decent the first 3 innings he threw before the wheels came off in his 4th inning. The velocity and K numbers are excellent. Interesting that in 2019 and 2021 his hits and WHIP were very solid. In 2019 and 2022 both were back up higher than you'd like, mostly due to hits, I'd say, as his BB have never been through the roof. I think bean5302 may have stated it best on an earlier post; if the K's are there and the velocity is there and he's not plunking batters or producing extreme BB numbers, it would seem he's just losing control and allowing too many hittable pitches at times. (I'm paraphrasing a bit). He didn't turn 22 until June. Like SWR, he's very young, especially to be at AA already. While not a big kid, I do think, sometimes, the whole length/downward plane idea is, shall we say, inaccurate. Not every successful SP is/has to be 6' 1" and above. Just in recent history I'm thinking of Strotman and Berrios. Obviously there have been others. I agree he deserves a chance, which to me means holding on to him and seeing what happens in 2023 and how much improvement he makes. He'll still only be 22yo when next season starts. I'm guessing it's his "consistency" of control that is the issue. To clarify, BAD CONTROL leads to WP and BB and HB, as well as hard contact, no matter what you throw. I don't know that he's shown that. Lacking "consistent" control is having good stuff and getting guys out and producing high K numbers but leaving too many hittable pitches in the zone at times. I absolutely hate using him as an example, but think Pagan. At only 22yo, there's a real chance he finds greater consistency in his delivery and release to harness his stuff and be a quality pitcher. And while I'd probably leave him in the rotation at St Paul for now, I'm not going to project, at this time, whether he's going to remain a starter or move to the pen. Too early to say. *A young arm like his could, of course, find early success as a potential middle reliever at first, before moving to the rotation.

I'm fine with the idea and it makes a ton of sense, as long as Ober, and Winder, and Varland don't lose starts/innings as they need the innings and expose as well. But with Archer and Gray and Mahle all out, I don't think it's going to be a problem.

First off, injuries tanked this team. I just don't see how anyone can debate that issue. When you're trotting out your 8th OF, a last second veteran catcher add, and what, you're 8th-10th SP options you can only do so much. Some of the lineups the past month have been AAA players filling in. That being said, I don't feel this team was set up properly for 2022 at all. 1] First and foremost, impending lockout and negotiations with Buxton be damned, the Twins were WAY UNDER ANY payroll possibilities and had the opportunity to add a quality SP for 2-4yrs at annual values that were fair and wouldn't break the bank. Even Rodon, who they pushed hard for, ended up with essentially a 1yr deal due to his opt out. Was Verlander coming here? No. But there were some really solid arms available that they didn't even try for. Instead, they took a flier on Bundy. The Gray trade wasn't a bad one at all and probably happens regardless. A FA and Gray, and maybe STILL Bundy would have been a good start to join Ryan and Ober and young arms coming up. And while I actually like Paddack and think he might be a major part of the rotation theb2nd half of 2023 and 2024 and be a re-sign candidate, a team hungry for SP absolutely shouldn't have traded for someone almost guaranteed to blow out his arm. And they wouldn't have had to do so if they just spent $ for one of the quality FA arms out there. Now, this doesn't guarantee success! But it's a solid foundation to build on and lessens a cascading affect that happened. 2] You absolutely CAN BUILD A BULLPEN in a variety of ways. Rebound arms. Starters turned to relievers. Promotions of young arms Solid FA signings. Duran is magnificent. Jax is very good. Thielbar is very good. The Twins really missed Alcala IMO. Lopez was a great move by the Orioles, but we could have done something similar. And while Rogers tanked after his start with the Padres, he's not a true "closer" to pitch daily. He's been really good, but he's not a Joe Nathan type. But having him and using him appropriately instead of Pagan would have made a huge difference for everyone. And you have Rogers if you don't HAVE to make the Paddack trade because you didn't do ANYTHING when you had the opportunity. And needing another quality option no matter the Rogers trade, Smith was it? A 38yo junk ball RH was it? There was NOBODY else worthy of a decent contract that was a better option than Joe Smith? 3] The belief that journeyman Garlick...an OK ballplayer...and not yet proven Celestino could handle the job of quality RH OF when the oft injured Buxton and Kepler were your only proven commodities was a huge error. Not only gas this team been surprisingly susceptible to LH pitching, but the young and very talented Larnach and Krilloff hadn't fully proven themselves as starters as of yet, and each was coming off injury. And Garlick and Celestino were the best you had to offer as RH counterparts? To be fair, I don't hate the FO and I don't hate everything they did before or during the 2022 season. And I didn't hate this team before the year began. I honestly saw a 90-92 win team with decent health and a couple of breaks. But I really questioned their lack of additions to the 3 areas above. And they seemed so very obvious to address based on need, availability, and an open payroll. No way to predict how things would have turned out had they done as described above. Only Maeda was out for 2022, the rest of the injuries have just been one after another, etc, until you barely recognize the team on the field we've been seeing the last month. But it doesn't change the fact that 1 more quality SP, 1 more quality RP along with Rogers, and 1 more quality OF would have helped mitigate some of the poor series we played before and after the break and the trades made. And surely, we wouldn't have given away so many games in the late innings.

Of the 3 listed in the OP, I'm actually most worried about Martin at this point. I still don't understand him sitting out an entire year and then jumping to AA, no matter his draft credentials and athleticism. But he did pretty much hold his own there, despite mediocre BA and no power. But the fact he repeated, and had his BA go down and still no power really concerns me. Was he battling I jury before he was on the IL? How can he be so athletic, and have great discipline, but can't hit? If he has a good AFL, (crossing fingers), I almost think he should move to the OF and MAYBE AAA for a different challenge and a change of scenery. I am of the belief Balazovic's issues are between his ears, no insult intended. I think he finished 2021 working on some changes, started late due to his injury, and got his mechanics and release points all messed up. And it's just perpetuated until looking better recently. I think he needs to hit the re-set button and get himself as prepared for 2023 as he can both mentally and physically. Canterino's stuff is so electric, despite some BB issues, that I believe he would have been moved very quickly if healthy. No medical staff and no surgeon wants to go the surgery route until it appears to be the last resort. That being said, I do think the surgery should have been sooner for his own benefit, much less for the Twins. I also agree that if there had been a 2020, his surgery would have already, probably, been over and done. While TJ is no guarantee of success and a future career, the surgery has a very, very high rate of success. While I hold out hope he will remain a "late arriving" starter who can still have a nice 5-8yr career, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up moving to the pen.

Polanco is a WARRIOR, as is Buxton. You practically have to drag them off the field to put them on the IL. I really, really hope each, along with Larnach and Jeffers, would come up, healthy or relatively so, in the next week to lead the Twins to an ALC flag and the chance to win a 1st round playoff series and "break a curse" and set the table for 2023 with a positive 2022 finish. But it's probably just too late. Even with a strong finish, Cleveland just has too soft of a finish for the Twins to make a move unless their depleted roster can surprise the next few games.

As an aside that time constraints robbed me of while at work, I should have added in my previous post that it will be very interesting as to how our AFL prospects are used. I know that much like normal milb, players tend to be used in different manners. Very few are only used in one way, or one position. But does Martin play mostly OF? Julien has played 1B/2B/3B/LF previously. Does he concentrate on 2B/LF? Do we see a surprise? Does Isola concentrate on catching? (Hoping so). Olsen is one of those mid round fliers you take based on potential but injured. Not dissimilar to Priellip this past draft. But THEN, he has TOS surgery and THEN misses all of 2020! I mean, at that point, you're talking about the potential end of a career/dream. After an OK 2021 he spent most of 2022 in the pen. At age 25, with all the time he's missed, there must be SOMETHING in his STUFF the Twins still like to send him to the AFL because I can think of other arms I'd like to see get the opportunity. Bentley is LH and breathing. The Twins are short handed on LH pitching, especially post trade this year. Thielbar is very good, but needs help, and is on the wrong side of 30, despite his results. Moran and Sisk at AAA offer some potential immediate help. And Hendrick and Funderburk and the injured Featherstone at AA offer possibilities. But a good AFL could catapult Bentley in to AAA and potential Twins discussion for 2023. I don't want to say the Twins are desperate for a 2nd LHRP option....but the Twins are desperate for a 2nd LHRP option to add to Thielbar and then have 1 or 2 guys knocking at the door! Possibilities are there! Who steps through the open doorway? This, IMO, is a big, open and important doorway. Despite following the system closely, I have to admit I know next to nothing about Shreve or Peguero. Shreve is tall and long and pitched in rookie ball 2019 before sitting out 2020. I can only assume he's projectible after his 2nd half of 2022 as listed in the OP. And I also confess that I didn't even remember Peguero as being part of the Sonny Gray trade. (Shame on me, lol). So they both seem to have velocity and potential secondary pitches and have K results. Great! So do a lot of A and AA arms. The FO knows a hell of a lot more than I do about the talent and potential of position players and arms in the system than I do. But I thought the AFL was about AA and above talent that was "close" to making an appearance and a mark. So we sent ONE catching prospect when we might have sent two. And we are sending a group of A arms hoping for a jump start? I mean, it kinda makes sense in a way, offering a challenge. But aren't there some higher profile arms that are closer to reaching the ML level that could really use this springboard and let the other arms work through the instructional league? I like the player choices, though I might have chosen a 2nd catcher potentially. But I'm a little confused about some of the pitching choices.

Winning 4 is probably optimal. Winning 3 isn't out of the question, but still leaves the Twins behind the 8 ball considering games left to make up and how easy Cleveland's final week is. After losing the game tonight, despite a 3-0 lead, the truth is the Twins just don't have enough quality, productive bodies to make a difference offensively. The thing I'm really going to potentially miss in 2023...though I hope a Twins winning record will make this negligible...is inter divisional series played in September. While you ALWAYS want your team to walk away with a division win, it's still fun to be facing off against your division rivals to close things out. But MLB, in their continued poor vision, has that possibility all but eliminated next year with their bogus scheduling. The Twins have to win, at least, 3 of the next 4 to remain in this thing. The odds of doing so are pretty remote. But I'm going to root for them to do so anyway. As always, GO TWINS!

Disappointed? At least short term? Yes. Even with some expected regression...I mean the dude was performing at an almost impossible to maintain ELITE level...he's not been what I expected or hoped for. Period. But honestly, we're talking about a human being having the best season of his career and then being traded. He's still in a very SSS with the Twins. Sometimes there's just an adjustment period to a player packing up and moving. Sometimes guys try too hard to impress their new team. Sometimes baseball just happens and a guy has some bad luck and a few bad games. That's magnified for a RP. And yes, maybe the Twins tried a tweak that hasn't worked. Maybe he's suffering through a combination of what I've listed. Long term, I'm excited to have an arm like his for now and the next 2yrs. He's still brand new to his role, and some bumps in the road are bound to happen. It's very unfortunate it's happened right after the trade. And maybe I'm just an optimist, but again, I'm happy to have his arm around for a while. And if he finishes 2022 strong and looks good in 2023, this conversation/OP will be quickly forgotten. Along the similar line, Fulmer has been pretty close to what he was in Detroit, a little better, a little worse in areas. But he's almost the exact age of Lopez, and has only been a full time reliever a little longer than Lopez. Unless the Twins really believe they have a better arm for around the same expected $ cost, I think he'd be a perfect re-sign for 2023 to go along with Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, a healthy Alcala and a number of possible arms to fill the mid roles.

I have no clue if the FO is trying to manipulate service time or not, but I seriously doubt it, and I think vague comments about such are uninformed and uncalled for as some conspiracy theory. IIRC, wasn't Varland was switched to a call up at the last moment vs just adding him to the roster. That allowed them to continue playing the roster game they've been playing most of the year to keep fresh arm on a shuttle. He's coming up again for the double header at Cleveland on pretty much less normal rest/rotation. They're just playing the game within a game to keep fresh arms. Witness Cotton being sent out for the 4th or 5th time. I can "get" the FO not rushing a young prospect like Wallner thinking he's not quite ready. The issue is, IMO, the FO being too stubborn with sticking with veterans too long "hoping" they respond. Cave is the perfect example. Now I'm not a Cave hater, and he's had a whopping 2 good games since the glass was broken and they promoted him, and hit a HR tonight against Cleveland. But a veteran hitting poorly, except for a couple games, isn't an answer when you MIGHT catch some lightening with Wallner up and getting a shot. Cave is hitting like .180-.190 and not performing...except for the previous mentioned...would Wallner do worse? Why not take a shot?! He might surprise and might hit a couple big doubles or HR's. The lineup needs help. Take a shot! And once again, in a similar arguement, why not Helman instead of the hurt Garlick or one of the Hamiltons? Helman can play all 3 OF spots, 2B/3B and even a little SS if you need him to. He can hit a little, jack some XB hits and HR and has speed and SB speed/ability. The only thing Hamilton and Hamilton offer are one can catch and one is more experienced. This is CRUNCH TIME to end the year. It's time to to just take desperation type shots for guys who MIGHT surprise and help vs "trusting" in more experienced players who can't hit and can't seem to give you what you need to make a run. Stubbornness can be a serious flaw.

I think there's 2 different questions being asked here, intentionally or not. 1]Can we trust Larnach NOW to help? No. A few more games, hopefully he can find his swing and come up to help. He might not. But Buck out, Kepler hurting and inept lately, Garlick hurt yet again while trying to play at probably 75-80%, Hamilton on the bench and Cave not only starting but doing so against LHP. Sheesh! So we can at least HOPE Larnach cones up and can help. BTW, going to repeat Wallner couldn't do much worse, nor Helman, and they should be up NOW. 2] Can we trust Larnach for the future? He's unfinished and the jury is out how good he might be, but I say YES. When you hit in college, hit in the minors, hit at the ML level WHEN HEALTHY, I think he's got a good future. His defense is solid/OK with a great arm. His only "power" issue thus far has been hitting up the middle and the opposite way almost too much and needs to work on pulling the ball more. That's not a bad problem to have to work on. Neither of his injuries indicates any kind of long term or chronic situation. Just unfortunate. IF AK's latest procedure can keep him on the field, he gives the lineup a HUGE potential boost at 1B as well as the OF. Then you add the potential of Wallner in and things start to look very good for the future. (Better too many options vs too few). I like Celestino and think he has a future, but is not finished yet. I'd like to have Garlick back on a mild deal for depth and options. But for yet another year consecutively, I think the Twins need to spend a few $M on a quality RH hitter with pop/power who can play a little defense. Problems against LHP has been constant and I don't want 2023 to be about trusting in Celestino and Garlick too much.

Figured Martin was a 100% lock. I think when there was an article a couple weeks ago concerning AFL speculation, pretty sure I listed Julien as a possible in order to work on defense and get ready for a possible Twins promotion in 2023. I also stated they absolutely had to send at least one catcher as they need to figure our Carmago, Isola, Williams, etc. Just interesting it's Isola of the various possibilities. But before I pat myself on the back too much, I struck out on the possible arms completely! Really thought Enlow would get some time to continue to get his "feel" back and log some additional innings. Looks like they just want rest before instructs. The arms they're sending make sense though. They all really just need more innings to see what they really have.

I doubt anyone picks him up unless someone is looking for a 4th-5th SP potential steal. Doubtful. I do think Dobber gets a raw deal publicly as he was surprisingly solid after coming out of nowhere! Can you imagine pitching...and and pitching well at 3 levels in milb...in 2019 and then playing at a 4th level that is MLB! He was living a dream in 2019 with a handful of quality games before being unfairly asked to face the Yankees in the playoffs. He was actually a stalwart in the covid 2020 going 6-4 I believe, before a bad game with questionable calls. And then injuries hit. Just amazing how an injury to a finger can derail a potential career. The truth is, 2023 SHOULD have Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, Winder, Varland and SWR and possibly Balazovic for depth BEFORE any FA or trade acquisition. I seriously doubt the system has enough depth to make a major trade to add a SP. And that might be OK. A LOT depends on Correa being back as to what they can add. The PROPOSED rotation I just mentioned is pretty damn good with ANY decent health with depth because you will need 8-10 SP. Unless someone grabs Dobber, he's going to collect good ML money and sit at St Paul as an option. And history will show that he has a chance to be a 6th to 7th option who will get another shot.

My brain says to stay out of this conversation, but my stubbornness says to weigh in anyway, LOL. I think it's almost impossible to discuss Rocco without also discussing the FO to some degree. But I'm going to focus on Rocco directly, as much as possible. In regard to the entire topic of managing by computer or analytics only, I've got to pull the reins on that entire arguement. Before MLB fully embraced what are today's "modern" analytics approach, baseball has still been using analytics for a hundred years plus previously. More than any single sport, baseball has been measuring statistics the entire time! We've got numbers from wins and losses and SO and BB and ERA since the game basically began. Hitting statistics from BA to OB to Hr and RBI have been counted the same. You don't think managers haven't been fully aware of various hitters and pitchers career numbers against their opponents for the past 100+ years? Those numbers are analytics folks. The difference is about 15-20yrs ago a few really smart people took WHAT WAS ALREADY BEING USED and dug in deeper. Hitting wise they discovered that OB% was more valuable than previously known/understood. They discovered that bunting a runner to 2nd with no outs only increased your chances of scoring a single run a few percentage points. BUT, you LOWERED your chances of scoring MORE than that single run. So teams now play for a bigger inning most of the time these days. On the pitching front, it was learned that the long established 100 pitch number wasn't as big a factor in pulling a pitcher than him not facing a lineup for a 3rd time. It was also learned that RP usually performed better when they started a clean inning vs coming in with runners on base. Analytics have ALWAYS been used, they've just changed in regard to what the information reveals. So if you have the belief that Rocco follows the numbers too closely at times, and doesn't trust his gut often enough, you have that right and I won't disagree with you. But I think this whole analytics and computer usage and Rocco being a robot is blown way out of context and accuracy and proportion. The comments from Gray about wanting to pitch deeper in to games is also blown out of proportion. Would you want a pitcher who wants to throw less? When pressed after Rocco DID let Gray extend himself, it didn't go great. And Gray's follow up comment was that he appreciated the opportunity and needed to PERFORM BETTER next time. There was no blasting of Rocco. He just said he wanted to pitch deeper and then said it was up to him to do better. In fact, other than Shoemaker last year, I can't recall a single current or former player who has blasted Rocco, or his usage, or the Twin's usage of him, or anything similar. So no, there is no evidence Rocco isn't liked or has lost the team. It's very easy to blast Rocco for his over usage of Pagan, especially in the Cleveland series in which he seemed to single-handedly erode our lead and momentum. But at some point, Baldelli can only use what he's got available. Was he supposed to turn to Duffey or Thornburg at that time? Well, maybe. But he didn't have many options at that time due to injury and lack of talent at the time. When injuries rob you of your starters, and you have a bad and beaten up pen, you can't just throw what you have for SP longer and expect positive results. When several of your best position players are out, you can't suddenly decide to bunt and steal bases all of a sudden and revamp your offensive approach and suddenly start scoring runs in bunches. NOW, that's me just venting about things that are beat on like a blacksmith's hammer on anvil over and over again that are not only not productive, but also aren't fully accurate. NOR am I defending Rocco as a tremendous manager. I'm clearing the air about certain topics. Where does Rocco fail and need to improve? 1] Once in a while, when a SP is doing well, worry less about August and September and let him begin the next inning. Now, I don't WANT said SP to blow things up facing batters for a 3rd time. And I don't WANT a RP brought in to a tough situation vs a clean inning. But there were a few games this year when the bottom of the order was coming up, or maybe 8-9-1 where I think his hook was too quick. 2] Don't fall in love with certain players. It's his job to put the team in the best spot to win. And BTW, this pertains to the FO as well! And when injuries decimate, your hands are tied at times. But when someone is slumping or just not doing the job, sometimes you just have to try someone else and hope for the best because you already know what's probably going to happen if you go status quo. (See Pagan). 3] If you need or want something, then man up and tell the FO what and why. Now, maybe he does that. IDK. But it took until late July or early August for him to speak publicly about needing some long and middle arms for the pen. I know injuries limited options, but why wasn't such an obvious need at least attempted to be filled in some way earlier? I mean, your job is on the line Rocco. 4] There's just no reason to NOT work on defense and base running. And yes, even bunting because there are times when a bunt could be useful. To me, it's a cop out to say those things should all be instilled before someone even reaches MLB. When you DON'T do these things, guys get complacent at times. It's human nature. And when you have a bunch of new talent coming up...and they have and do...it's your job to make sure they continue to work and DO THINGS RIGHT. You don't have to be a taciturn disciplinarian who works the team to death, BUT, you have time to work on things that are important on a regular basis to have the best team you can. It's like asking a football defense to tackle well when you never practice it. (HELLO HUSKERS!) 5] While the FO has CLEARLY done a great job with hiring various personnel for the Twins and the milb system...and this is proven by the number of respected coaches who have been pilfered by other organizations...and while they may be as much or more "tuned in" to coaching options for your staff, STEP UP and be a part of the decision making if you haven't been already. Do you like Popkins as your hitting instructor? Does Tingler actually provide what you need in a bench coach? Reputation has Maki as a good pitching instructor, and reputation also has it that Suggs might be a dynamite diamond in the rough. You've lost Rowson and Shelton and Sawyer to other organizations and Johnson to college ball and Bell due to fatal illness. Work with the FO and get a staff in place that you like and trust. In all professional sports, I've always been flabbergasted as to how a staff is put together. I've never once heard of a manager/head coach having carte blanche. But I've never heard the opposite either. Again, a baseball manager is so tuned in to the day by day of a season, I think it's obvious the FO may be more in tune with "possibilities" to fill some of these positions. But Rocco, manager, former player, and former coach, should have some ideas. And he should be part of the process going forward. And shame on him if he isn't. I don't think Rocco is a bad manager. I just don't think he's an especially good one. He's OK. He has his team. He's liked and respected. He keeps an even keel over a long season. He's won and produced thus far! But I think he can learn and grow and just "take charge" of some definincies and make the team better in all the little ways that play big in the long run. The FO is at a precipice right now because it's really easy to see better health and a couple smart offseason moves to push this team forward from being good to potentially great. But it's also up to Rocco to take HIS GAME up a notch to get the most out of the 2023 Twins.

Glad to see the walk rate stay down and the K rate continue after his promotion. A hit per IP is not bad, nor unusual. However, you'd rather see a hit per at the ML level and not the mild level. That would seem to red flag he may be lacking something in his arsenal to fool batters more frequently vs K rate. Hard to say. Overall, the numbers look pretty good and he's got a chance. Would really like to know what he's throwing and at what velocity these days. LH and breathing with good K rates means you have to protect him. And if his stuff translates with an uptick to the pen vs the rotation, that's still valuable if starting doesn't work out.

The word overkill comes to mind. Drafting heavy is one thing, but drafting only pitchers is a little extreme. I don't really know much about their system, so maybe they are/were currently pretty heavy on position players. And I guess you can always trade arms for bats. I do agree with Dman that the Twins might concentrate a little harder next year on arms. The system does look a little depleted due to trades and injuries.

I think Laweryson just might be a surprise that I know I didn't expect. Now, is he going to be a sudden rotation bloomer that even the Twins didn't see? I tend to discount that. I think we're looking at a Jax kind of arm who might just end up being a very good and very valuable middle inning bullpen arm. And there's great value in that! The one thing I learned a LONG TIME AGO is that unless you draft a Clemmons or Stasburg in the very first picks of the draft, you just don't DRAFT a potential ACE or #1 starter. Your draft, sign, and develop. And at the end of the day, you still never know what will happen. For goodness sake, Santana was a rule 5 trade piece. Randy Johnson took years to go from good to great. Stieb and Key were good until they were great, etc, etc. I don't discount the draft ideas of our current FO. Enlow and Canterino weren't late selections. Unfortunately, both have encountered injury issues. But their approach has also brought on arms such as Winder and Varland and maybe Festa. With little exception, every single SP in every organization is a "mid rotation" starter until proven otherwise. That's just the name of the game because NOBODY can project greatness. Hell, in 3-4yrs we may be begging the Twins to re-sign a Winder or Varland to a big deal. But I DO THINK you can outsmart yourself. Drafting arms with tons of upside is smart and a good approach. And you have to draft arms as well as bats. And the philosophy of quality bats being available only early with projectible arms available only gets you so far. The limited 2020 draft still burns the hell out of me! Quantity of hopeful quality is still better than NOT drafting for either. It was considered a major college level SP draft and the FO just ignored all the available arms and only Raya was selected. Now, I think Raya was a great pick, my favorite at the time, and the FO might just get lucky at how good he might be, but I think they just blew that draft. And it's not about Sabato's early returns. It's about quantity of arms to find the few that actually make it. Six makes two, etc. They should have made that a pitching heavy draft and let the chips fall. But they tried to outsmart themselves. Then they got smart and hit pitching even harder in 2021, though most of those arms are now gone. Nothing wrong with looking for projectible arms! But I do think the FO has outsmarted themselves here and there.