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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Minor League Report (8/6): Offense Galore
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Palacios will need to be protected. You don't just give up a talented glove like his, position flexibility, and a potentially decent bat for nothing. At worst, he's probably a nice utility player. At best, he might be a starting SS for someone. If Correa leaves, he's the Twins starting SS to begin 2023, IMO. Really nice to see Enlow take a step forward. He was just turning a corner before he got hurt. A positive finish sets him up for a nice 2023. Is Sisk flying under the radar? Low A in 2019, no 2020, jumps to high A and then AA in 2021 before coming to the Twins in trade. Great start at Wichita this year and almost as good at St Paul so far. But to be fair, only 16IP at AAA so far. But he's shown nice, normal, steady progression. I'm sure he's behind Moran for now, unless the Twins want 3 LH in the pen. But I'd think he's a keeper for 2023 even if he doesn't audition this year. Can't risk losing a mid 20's LHRP showing promise.- 13 replies
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- jermaine palacios
- blayne enlow
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Nick Gordon's management has been exceptional
DocBauer replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Other than dealing with a lifetime stomach/digestive disorder he seems to have under control, and a bout of Covid that hospitalized him...not to mention a bum ankle a couple years ago just before the Twins promoted Arraez (although that turned out OK for the Twins)...Gordon's biggest problem might be failed expectations. If he had been a 4th or 5th round selection, many more would be singing his praises, IMO. He's hitting and getting OB and providing some unexpected power here and there. (Just surprised how the ball jumps off his bat when he squares up). He's turned in to a pretty good defensive OF. And if you look at his numbers, he's trending upward. I believe it was the SD series where he made a baserunning goof. But he had a really good game otherwise and showed a real spark. It's OK, and smart he's mostly playing against RHP, at least for now. Last time I looked, most of the human population and MLB is RH. The FO kept him on the 40 man when they took over for a reason. They saw something valuable even though they owed no obligation to him. I think he's only going to get better and better. Time and experience just might allow him to hit better against LHP. Continued maturity and maybe another couple of pounds might allow him a few more XBH. My only complaint on his usage might be running him more. His SB numbers this year are poor. Some of that is bad luck, and some is oversliding the bag. He was a speed weapon last year. Don't stop working with him and sending him. I have to admit I've chuckled a few times over the season when some suggested Gordon might be a DFA to make room for someone else. He's actually doing EXACTLY what the Twins want him to do, and giving exactly what you want the last player on the bench to do. Now, the Twins DO HAVE some very intriguing utility options in the system, Julien just to name one, who MIGHT squeeze him out. But that's another time and another place. Gordon is doing just fine in his role, while trending upward, and I'm damn happy we have him and the FO didn't give up on him. -
Interesting idea. Full confession, don't know how his glove is. Bad 2022, but only 27yo tomorrow and with power and a solid quad slash line for his career until 2022. And the Guardians just gave up on him? Seems very strange to me. Kepler and Celestino back are very good things. Gordon just keeps contributing. Jury is still very much out on Larnach and AK for the rest of the year. But Reyes is RH hitter, so his comp would be Garlick in this case. I'd rather have the player I know, who has filled his role well thus far, if healthy and back. To me, it depends how Garlick is doing and when expected back. If there's uncertainty, then why not a flier on Reyes and hope to catch lightning?
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Could Carlos Correa Opt Back in for 2023?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The OP is about Correa, but I think bringing in discussion of Lewis and Palacios is relevant. IMO...and it's a combination of hope and belief in the kid...Lewis will recover and be an excellent ML player for years to come, even if he doesn't achieve the grandiose level of SUPERSTAR. If Correa is one and done, I could still see the Twins brining in a placeholder. Why wouldn't you? You'd be crazy not to have depth and options. A refresher on Palacios. He was traded for Odorizzi before 2018 as a good glove SS who could hit. Except, he didn't for 2yrs and was released after those 2yrs, and re-signed by the Twins following the missed 2020 season. And suddenly, he had learned to hit again. 2021 at AA: .259/ .340/ .439/ .779 with 17dbls, 19hr, and 18-8sb 2022 at AAA, so far: .297/ .360/ .477/ .837 with 24dbls, 10hr, and 10-7sb. His glove appears to be legit from reputation and what we saw in limited action. He's actually improved as a hitter despite jumping up a level in 2022. Really, only his SB % has dropped. All of that coming off a very strong winter league performance. Is he a late bloomer after 2 failed years and a missed season? Kind of looks that way. You could knock 40-50 points off each of his quad slash line numbers and still have an effective "contributor" offensively while playing great defense. I know I'd take that over what we saw in Simmons in 2021. Understand, I'm a fan of Correa and NOT saying I wouldn't like him back. I just don't, as of now, see a reality where he is. And I'm not trying to blow goofy smoke of illusions to anyone that a late blooming Palacios is a long term answer or that the Twins shouldn't look at a veteran fill in option should Correa actually leave. I am only trying to look beyond tomorrow to say that if he does, indeed, move on, a single spot in the lineup doesn't have to mean automatic depression or incompetence. There may be options and the $35M saved, plus Sano $ saved, plus Rogers $ saved, and possibly Sanchez $ saved, just might be better spent on extensions and additions. It would be great to have Correa back, somehow, some way. I'd be happy. But the sky won't fall if he does leave. It might even open up some new opportunities. In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy having him around and hope his recent struggles reverse themselves and he will help the Twins win the ALC and some playoff games and then we will see what happens from there.- 90 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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Could Carlos Correa Opt Back in for 2023?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've become a fan. From day one he's just been a great teammate and leader for the team in general, and the infield in particular. He's done and said everything right, even to the point of taking a real interest in the trade deadline. His offense has not been as expected or hoped for, and the numbers bear that out. Still, he's been good. I have learned to understand and appreciate various statistics and analytics. But my goodness, there are so many that at times I'm just wondering what new defensive or pitching metric comes out next! Not everyone even agrees or supports some of the ones in existence now. Errors may be up, and his metrics might be down, but I've just loved watching him play defense and have not been disappointed. I've been very happy to have him, despite a good season being a "down" one. He's said and done all the right things to the Nth degree. He and his family like it here. I'm sure those statements are true. And maybe, just maybe he DOES want to opt in, help the Twins win, and bet on himself for a 6-8yr deal following a better 2023. I can see a path where that could happen. But here's the reality, he's getting paid almost $70M if he stays. He's getting over $100M if he stays all 3yrs and then hits FA near 30yo and will still probably get a solid offer of 4-5yrs from someone. But if he opts out for a new 7yr deal at "just" $25M...for conversation sake...that's still $175M GUARANTEED. Simple math shows he has an additional, approximate, $75M more locked in vs playing out his Twins deal and then looking at FA again. And I think my $25M is probably conservative. No matter what way he goes, he and his family are set for life and beyond. But I just don't see sticking around...making great $ to be sure...and then trying again in a year or two when he can opt out now and play the field for even more guaranteed money even if it's never going to be $35M per. COULD the Twins re-work his deal and add years? Absolutely. They could take on another 2yrs, keep the deal front loaded as it is now for around $35M, and then drop what would be years 4 and 5 to something around $30 and $25M. That means he can hit FA again at age 31. Is he still a viable SS then? Maybe. That gives roughly $160M in 5yrs with the Twins. So, again, he comes out ahead getting a new deal from someone else. He only stays if he and his family truly want to stay, and he's content with a deal re-worked for $160-175M because money doesn't always buy happiness and that's enough for him, with the opportunity to still sign another 3-4yrs elsewhere to finish out his career for $X, for age 31-34/35. I just don't see it happening.- 90 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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Minor League Recap (8/5): Offensive Explosion
DocBauer replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Glad to see Sanchez back to fill a roster spot for the Saints. And as well as he's pitched since coming to the organization, he might be finding himself again. Might be a 6th starter for us at some point. Nice to see Wallner get going. What on earth is going on with Palacios? WOW!- 11 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- matt wallner
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Trade Deadline Proves Value of the Twins' Young Core
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Two of my all time favorite quotes: George Carlin: "You can't have everything. Where would you put it?" Rolling Stones: "You can't always get what you want" I really like the way this team is constructed position player wise. IMEDIATE CAVEAT: I like/love the position players and lineup with a healthy AK. Without him, it's still good. But without him, we need to add a bat somehow, some way. And I don't necessarily mean a DH. There is no reason, especially how this team is built, to have ONE GUY filing a non defensive position. Period! Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Miranda, not sure but Lewis eventually, Polanco, Arraez, Kirilloff, Jeffers is a great starting lineup. I like the ability and potential of Celestino as a 4th OF, but that wouldn't stop me from adding competition. Not sure what Gordon has to do to prove he's a really nice 25th man. I would bet Ursela is brought back for 2023. Despite trades made, there are a couple of very interesting prospects from Palacios, (a possible fill in at SS to begin. 2023), to Hellman to Julian moving up and a couple others. Can Wallner continue to grow and develop? Is there any chance Isola can continue to it and play good defense behind the plate and be a viable catching option soon? Could Williams suddenly climb the latter as a 1B/DH/C? The roster looks very good with the exception of SS to still be figured out. And there are some interesting pieces getting close to at least provide depth. Am I the only one who's been intrigued by Correa's recent comments about making additions? Is he only being a great teammate and wanting to win? Or is he really sincere about sticking around? Just something to contemplate and fantasize about I guess. The lineup is just fine with heath and questions about SS being the only main issue. After that, it's backup/shared catcher and competition for the 4th OF spot. Pitching wise, how can you not be exited for Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Winder, Ober, etc, with depth from various arms even before the FO MIGHT make a move. And Paddack comes back June/July. If the FO is as smart as I think they are, they will learn from their mistakes and add at least one solid arm to this group, if not a great one. Rotation and bullpen, it's awesome to have a plan that makes sense in your blueprint. But when 2020 happens...and I know some are tired and dismissive, but it happened...you have to adjust. And the FO has done that, much to their chagrin I'm sure. There is a real chance that guys like Balazovic and SWR and others will rebound in 2023 and we will wonder WTH suddenly happened from one year to the next. I know he's not a pitcher, but think about Martin for a moment. He was drafted in 2019, missed an entire season of ball, went straight to AA, and we wonder about developing and urgency. SWR was moved very early, lossed half of of a year due to the Olympics and we wonder how such a talented young arm isn't ready yet. I'm not yet a dis-believer in the pipeline yet. I've seen early returns. And I hope to see more soon. But I haven't yet lost faith in the plan or some of the arms. And I don't want the FO to be complacent. But I'm still holding out real hope for some arms that could make a difference -
OK, YES, Maeda might be the biggest missing piece. Short season or not, he was OUTSTANDNG in 2020. Despite that, he was working on a new pitch to be even better going forward. And he was looking great in ST and ready to roll. And then his arm betrayed him. And a healthy Alcala, growing and developing and coming off a tremendous late 2021 run, has been missed. And listing them is obvious and relevant to be sure. And perhaps they should be included. No argument from me. But in regard to just the OP.... ....I'm really torn how to rank these choices. 3] I actually like Jeffers a lot as a catcher, even though he's disappointed this year with the bat. (Though he was heating up and has real bat potential). Sanchez is much better than I expected defensively, and I think some of that is kudos to the Twins. Love his arm. Leon has next to nothing with the bat but hope, but he provides what you need behind the plate. 2] I'm going to say Ober as #2 due to his ability, and potential, but also because of the rash of injuries in the OF. I think a lot of people sell Ober short. His IP were closely monitored in 2021 for a real reason. He was looking very good in 2022 before his injury. Frankly, he was better than Bundy or Archer. He might have continued to be a 5 IP starter who might occasionally pitch 6, but he's still better than anyone else. I think we've missed him a LOT! He has a chance to be a solid back end piece for the next few years. 1] Take your pick between Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach. Arraez and Miranda can play an OK 1B. But AK can play a very good 1B, a solid OF, and has legitimate middle of the order production if he can get 100% one of these days. Contreras is a good defensive OF, but he's not the experienced Kepler nor does he have his bat. And Larnach is "solid" in the OF with a great arm who has shown in 2021 and 2022 that his bat has real life and potential. Give me ONE of them healthy and ready to go I'm OK and sorta happy. Give me 2 and ecstatic. All 3 back somehow? I'm going to dance an embarrassing jig. Based on the OP, that's my list.
- 24 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- alex kirillof
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I love Smeltzer as a guy, a story, and a gamer. And frankly, I was surprised this season when I saw his FB sitting in the low 90's and hitting 93 at times. He does some good things. But he doesn't seem to have a single pitch that is anything special. I think he's a very good option in the pen as a 1-3IP middle guy who would be a 3rd LH behind Thielbar and Moran. And for a re-worked BP that really, really needs to dump Pagan, and could really use a couple of arms you can count on to fill the middle innings without being a HR, high run allowed disaster, Smeltzer could be perfect for such a role. And his competitive nature might be perfect for such a role. AND, FWIW, they could really use a RH version as well, though I'm not sure who's left to fill that role at this point due to attrition. Sands MIGHT be that guy....BUT.... ....due to attrition, the Twins just might want to keep Smeltzer and Sands stretched out to offer up SOMETHING akin to a "decent" SP option for injury and any potential double headers. In the long run, I do think Smeltzer might fit well in the pen. And it's very possible that Sands will make a Jax-like move to the pen. But do they want to do that NOW? (I think Sands' recent promotion might be temporary). Said it multiple times this week and will say it again, I really, really hope Aaron Sanchez will stay with the organization. He was once good, and then injury and loss of everything hit and a once top looking arm struggled. He looked awful with Washington earlier this year and was cut. He looked very good with St Paul. He pitched well and looked good in his ONE start with the Twins. I know it was against Detroit, but the stuff looked good. And recently signed Peacock seemed to rebound in AAA this year, but never got a shot with KC for whatever reason. I'm not saying EITHER guy is going to be a sudden difference maker. Peacock MIGHT have a couple really good months left in his arm. But at 30yrs old, Sanchez has a CHANCE to be a legitimate rebound candidate who finally gets healthy and gets his game together, even if it's as a fill-in starter or possible BP conversion. With the upgrades to the pen, they're still a good 2 arms away from having a couple of SOMEONES who are good enough, to just fill the middle innings. And clearly that wasn't the released Duffey, and Smith, nor the "needs to be gone" Pagan. Smeltzer just might be one of those guys. I just don't know if they don't want to keep him stretched out for now.
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For me, the answer is no. Guy hasn't hit a lick for 2yrs. And the OF defense isn't really the issue, which is JBJ's one saving grace. I just don't see the reward. And as far as Cave bashing, the guys was solid for a couple years before injury and such. He's been playing good ball in St Paul all season, and yet, the Twins have turned to younger players previously. Why? They've also been doing well and have some upside. But when Jake Cave, doing well at AAA, is like your 7th or 8th OF, that's a luxury very few teams have. He's here to help, not to be part of the future. Just relax
- 49 replies
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- defense
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Personally, I think Sands is up temporarily until they can bring Moran back up. Makes a heck of a lot more sense. I do believe there is a chance that Sands does, indeed, end up in the pen eventually. I don't think it will happen until next year though. While he just hasn't been the SP I was really hoping he was going to be this year, we're starting to run out of options if we have to dip down to St Paul. So I think any transition will take place next year. AND...while I've been optimistic a less pressure impacted, middle innings Pagan might be valuable to us...after his last appearance being so horrible I'm just starting to wonder if the squeeze is worth the juice. I don't know for sure who you'd replace him with, but maybe he needs to be gone next. Peacock maybe??
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I remember when he first came up in 2015 and looked like a HOPEFUL piece for the future of the rotation. Man, he looked solid and made some batters look just silly. After finding out he just wasn't, in fact, a ML SP, he was absolutely lights out as a FIREMAN in 2019 and '20. He got off to a poor start in 2021, but re-worked a few things, settled down, and had a really nice year after that rough start. But that early 2021 and a drop in velocity and K numbers was teasing the end. I was really hoping the "not as good" but still solid Duffey of 2021 was going to return in 2022. It just didn't happen. And that's too bad. He has been an important part of some very good teams and a class act all the way. I wish him all the luck in the world going forward.
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Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Month - July 2022
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Seth, I've heard and read your referencing Nowlin more than a few times. Small school kid, not that big, but seems to have some electricity in his arm. He's been splitting his time between starting and relieving. Walks are too high, but the rest of his numbers are good and the K's are fantastic. He screams possible electric RP capability. Or is there more to develop and he has a shot to be a SP? Really like to hear your thoughts on him. Seems he's an arm nobody really knows or pays attention to.- 12 replies
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- mike paredes
- marco raya
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Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Month - July 2022
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I can't quantify why exactly, gut feeling maybe? But I just keep thinking Funderburk is a BP just waiting to happen. And I get being a starter allows him more IP to work on all of his pitches to develop, but I keep thinking if they just moved him to the pen full time we might have a really good looking BP option that might move quickly.- 12 replies
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- mike paredes
- marco raya
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Obvious caveat that I wish a couple good signings had happened before the season so we didn't have to make all the trades. There, had to be said. But I really, really like what they did! I give the FO a solid "A". I think we gave up some really good young talent. Steer would have been a good utility player for us, but we have some, more are on their way, and Lee mitigates not only his loss but CES as well. CES might end up being a true 3 outcome 1B/DH, but I think he could be a dangerous one at that. I liked him as a possible 1B option to replace Kirilloff if, God forbid, his wrist never does get right. And I think Povich and Hajjar have a real shot at being solid SP at the ML level, with floors as really good BP options. And the system isn't exactly flush with LHP. But Prielipp might be as good or better than either. And you have to give to get, and the FO didn't touch the 40 man, which is fantastic. I really like Mahle and at 27yo he's just coming in to what should be his very best years. And away from the Red's ballpark, his numbers are very, very good. I can easily see a path where he and the equally young Paddack, once healthy, are both extension candidates that could be part of the rotation for years to come. While it's possible there could be changes, maybe even a possible quality offseason addition, 2023's rotation begins with Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Mahle, and deepens with Winder, Ober, a healthy Paddack, Smeltzer, a healthy Dobnak, and some young arms who keep developing and/or getting healthy. Even if Lopez has some regression for what he's doing now, he'd still be excellent. Fulmer has only been a RP for 2yrs now and has looked good doing it. I'd lay $ he's a re-sign. Add in Duran, Jax, a healthy Alcala, Thielbar, Moran, Pagan as a middle innings arm with velocity and K ability, and the 2023 pen already looks very good even before we talk about Megill and a couple other "interesting" arms or prospects moving to the pen. I have respect for Leon as a fine defensive catcher who can handle a staff and has a ton of experience. No problem with him. And while he might surprise, I had hoped for a backstop who might be expected to hit .200 and not someone we hope will. But that's a small quibble at this point. I held out some small hope the FO might find a rental rotation arm on the cheap for a couple lower level fliers. And I don't think we'll ever know if they tried, or if there just wasn't anyone they liked better than Bundy and Archer. Bundy hasn't been Mr. Consistent, but he's certainly passed my expectations. Archer has been solid in regard to his role. But I am disappointed he hasn't found the sustainability to consistently reach 5 innings. Maybe too much to expect in 2022 after all his setbacks? I wasn't expecting a last minute addition, but I wouldn't have been opposed to it. I understand some who feel a bat was needed. To me, that was a need, potentially, after what they got. You can't trade for better health. I wish you could. But a healthy Kepler helps a lot. If at least one of Larnach or Kirilloff can be fit and ready for September and beyond, I still really like the position players, depth, versatility, and overall production. Just, please, a little better health to finish the year! SIDE NOTE: While not trade acquisitions, I really think Sanchez and Peacock could be late season surprises. Sanchez was good, disappeared, re-surfaced poorly with Washington earlier this season, but has looked great with St Paul and had a very impressive 1 start with the Twins, showing good stuff. I'd love to keep him around. Peacock was a very useful jack of all trades with Houston for years. He was throwing great for the Royals AAA Omaha club, and I have no idea why they released him, unless it was just due to age. But if he truly has something left, he could be a surprise option if needed. Go Twins! Time to take the ALC and go from there!
- 63 replies
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- derek falvey
- tyler mahle
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A problem I have with the FO is "fear". Especially in regard to the pen. They aren't afraid to take a chance on someone, but they are equally afraid to let someone go, seemingly "afraid" they might lose out on someone. What more does Moran have to do to earn an extended shot? How can he get better and grow and prove he belongs other than to stick around? The Twins are not going to get the Duffey of old magically and are almost certain not to bring him back, unless it's on a milb deal. And I'm OK walking away from Pagan as well, but at least I can see velocity and a somewhat decent breaking ball and a splitter that is still a work in progress but shows potential. So while I'd run with someone else, at least I can see a reason to stick with him for a little longer. And I think Duffey is a great guy and teammate and did a great job for a few seasons, but the harsh reality is he's got nothing left but guts and guile and its not working. And you're trying to win now, and next year. Who gives you a better chance to do that? A RP who's toast? Or a young arm with potential who will hopefully get better with time and experience? I actually kinda like Megill a bit. So they keep him up but send down Moran with as much or more potential? Duffey should have a "tired arm" or SOMETHING, if you want to keep him and SEE. Otherwise, quit being afraid. If somethings not working, then go down a different path.
- 43 replies
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- joe ryan
- michael fulmer
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"In the cathedral that is Yankee stadium, the moment belongs to a Chapel", from the Kevin Costner movie FOR LOVE OF THE GAME, which I admit is a guilty pleasure of mine. Unless it was Hollywood hyperbole, it's been my understanding they filmed the movie and then basically turned the script and movie over to Scully and Steve Sax to provide commentary after the fact. And if true, while a fictional situation, that line is a testament to the greatness and brilliance of Scully. Was thinking about this while driving today.
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Grade the Minnesota Twins’ 2022 Trade Deadline!
DocBauer replied to cHawk's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
1] My grade? Definitely an A, though I lean slightly toward an A-. I like Fulmer, he's a beast against RH hitters, didn't cost a lot, especially considering SGL has to be protected and probably doesn't fit in to 2023 for the Twins at all. But I would have liked to toss in a flier and get someone just a notch better who maybe had a little more proven experience in a late inning role. Then again, he's only been a full time RP for 2yrs, and with solid success doing so. Not 30yo until next March, he might be a good re-sign, similar to Romo a few years ago. And newly transitioned, there may be a couple good years of life left in his arm. I'd almost give Mahle an A by himself. He's only 27yo, just entering what should be his prime years as a SP, and has numbers away from Cincinnati that virtually scream top of the rotation starter. I don't dislike Leon as a veteran fill-in at catcher. He's a quality defensive catcher with experience and some post season experience as well. And the #1 responsibility/job of a catcher is game calling and working with your staff, not offense. Still, even for an arm the Twins liked enough to keep for 2yrs and basically NEVER allow him to actually pitch, I was hoping for a solid backup rental who we might expect to hit .200, not hope for it. But I'm splitting some fine hairs here, which is why I grade an A. NOTE: I think it was about a week ago where Nick included a "wild hair" idea of acquiring a cheap back of the rotation SP like Hill from Boston for a flier. I want to say he suggested a recovering Sano??? (Cant recall exactly). There was a part of me holding out hope for a rabbit out of the hat for a similar rental for some low level fliers that might include some A ball players who hadn't put it together yet. Think Sabato or Cavaco and similar. But I think that was a pipedream that would have cost more with zero guarantee to be better than what's on hand. 2] Does this make the Twins better? Hell yes! We can't buy health. Wish we could. But the rotation is better. The pen is better and deeper. Leon gives an actual, bona-fide, experienced, ML catcher to fill in. 3] Are the Twins a better bet to make the post season and maybe win a series? Yes! This IS a good team, but had holes. The largest holes have been plugged with a quality SP to give us 3 guys you can actually feel give you a chance to win a game. (Talking post season). And the pen is better and deeper, which moves other guys down a slot. And they didn't move a single roster player to do all of this. Remember, as ALC champions, we get a 1st round 3 game series at home. How do you like our chances now? Debates about a 4th SP in the post season are valid. But really, except for some truly outstanding staffs, how many times can you recall a 4th starter making or breaking a post season series? 4] How do these moves affect 2023 and beyond? I have a 2-part answer: A] It's easy to say "prospects are just prospects until they prove otherwise". And that might be true. But Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, and others were still 'just prospects" at one time. Don't kid yourself, while the ML roster stayed intact, the Twins gave up some quality prospects. I'd bet really money Steer turns out to be a really good ML 2B/3B who can cover SS, and who will hit and produce. CES might end up hurting. While he might not stick at 3B, and he has to prove his bat won't be a 2nd coming of Sano, the hit and power tools look real. I saw him as a 1B/DH option that might replace Kirilloff if injury persists. And while Povich and Hajjar are in A ball and a couple years away, and no clue how good they might turn out, they are intriguing young LH arms in only their 1st full season, and showing promise for an organization short of LHP. The good news is "prospects are still prospects" and the system certainly wasn't decimated for talent. Steer didn't fit in anytime soon as a full time player and there are a couple very interesting guys coming up to fill his roll. The same may be true of CES. 1ST round pick Lee comes to mind as well. I really didn't like giving up BOTH Povich and Hajjar, but the addition of maybe/probably as good or better Priellip mitigates the losses. Have to give up to get. And again, I think we gave up some nice prospects, but the system isn't decimated, and there is a draft and international signing every year to add more talent. B] Barring any more surprise set-backs...and baseball gods know we're do for a little better luck...the roster is looking very good for 2023 and beyond with the only real question mark being SS, which I'm not going to address here. There is also backup catcher to consider, as well as a possible 4th OF, that again, doesn't have to be immediately address here and now. Again, forgoing SS for the moment, the principal, daily roster is set, talented, and fairly young all across the board. These trades, and other previous moves, gives the Twins a 2023 rotation, in no particular order, of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Ober, and Winder, with potential depth pieces in Smeltzer, Dobnak, Sands (who MIGHT move to the pen), and Paddack when ready sometime in June/July. And we're not even talking a rebounded Balazovic, or SWR, or Varland and others. I don't believe the Twins will pick up Bundy's $11M option, but frankly, he's been better than I expected. He's been up and down, but far from a disaster. He's actually been pretty solid, except for a handful of really bad games. And the pen hasn't helped his numbers with a number of inherited runs scored. I'm still confused about Archer's mutual contract, but I doubt he's back. Money to be better spent elsewhere to sign an actual, solid ML SP to compete and provide depth for what those 2 made in 2022 makes tons of sense. (Don't tell anyone I said this, but I kinda hope Aaron Sanchez accepts a AAA assignment and comes back on a milb deal in 2023 as a flier. His velocity and stuff looked pretty good in his Twins start, even if it was against Detroit. Rehab fliers sometimes turn out). The 2023 pen now has Lopez, Duran, Jax, a recovered Alcala, a potential re-sign in Fulmer, Thielbar probably, and Moran as potential starting points. Payroll and just learning from experience that you just can't always trust fliers and prospects suddenly stepping in to a role should make the FO more aware and aggressive to add at least ONE quality arm that doesn't cost a fortune. I deliberatdly left Canterino out of the rotation discussion because as much as it kills me to say it, it just might be best to get him healthy and just transition him to the pen immediately and just see if we don't have another Duran. Maybe he's just better built for that role. Whole point being, this team is better built and better prepared now for 2023 than I dare say it was for 2022. But the deadline moves enhanced 2022, added to 2023 and beyond as long as they stay smart and keep adding here and there and keep drafting as well as they have been doing the past 5yrs. -
With all due respect to Herb Carneal... who felt more like family than just a voice on the radio...who was amazing, Vin was the very best ever. God must have needed someone special to call this season's WS. May he RIP.
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My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand
DocBauer replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Right or wrong, only time will tell, the FO has placed a ton of chips on the pipeline, I agree. I also agree it hasn't worked out, at least yet, the way they hoped. I disagree a bit on Ryan as he's now a Twin and his current and future development is on the Twins. Despite being hurt currently, I think Ober is part of the pipeline and has a pretty solid future if he can stay healthy. Duran and Jax are part of said pipeline, even if one was a draftee and the other was a young trade acquisition. The "bet" isn't the issue. It was smart and planned. And I don't know if 2020 is a culprit, and how much at this point, or crazy bad luck, but arms like Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, SWR, and even Enlow aren't surprises. They are well regarded arms that have had injuries, setbacks, and WTH is going on seasons. Is this just so much bad luck it has to turn around at some point? IDK, but I have to HOPE some medical/training procedures and time will get some of these arms back on track in 2023. Does Canterino need to move to the pen? I'd HATE to see it considering his arm talent, but maybe he's destined to be a STUD there. Does Balazovic just need time, and a confidence boost in 2023? Can the Twins find something with Winder that needs a small procedure or a different training approach? I think SWR just needs time. Same with Enlow coming back from TJ. Could we see a BIG movement in 2023 with just better health, more time, and a re-set for some? Absolutely! And there's a NUMBER of really good looking arms in both levels of A ball, and a couple nice arms at AA, lead by Varland. So the isn't barren. But not only do we need to see/hope for the higher level arms to get right. But we also need the FO to recognize they can't just WAIT for the pipeline to produce. They have the opportunity, still, in 2023 to see and wait for additional parts of the pipeline to be ready. But they also can't, any longer, JUST wait. Whether it's trade now or actually making a significant offseason signing, they NEED to add a quality SP arm while STILL embracing the pipeline of the system. Trust and belief and nurturing is one thing. Reality of the bird in hand is another. -
My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand
DocBauer replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I appreciate your perspective. I do. But even if we dismiss Correa coming back, which I do, he is a centerpiece for a team still in 1st place as of August 1st with aspirations to win their division, make the playoffs, hopefully win, and see what happens. When is the last time you've seen a 1st place team trade a major piece while trying to win? Secondly, how many top, potential playoff teams have such a hole at SS that they are going to want to trade anything of value for a Correa rental and over $11M still due? Forgetting the Twins still trying to win and advance and losing a big part of their current team, and very limited trade options, what a horrible PR hit and bad message to be sent to your fans and team to be in 1st place August 1st and just fold the tents. Not going to happen. -
My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand
DocBauer replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Hard to walk the line as a fan as well as an armchair GM, right? I appreciate your "two years of control", and won't disagree with your perspective. But as I tried to state, and re-stated in another post, isn't there a compromise? Any SP or RP with control will cost more. Unless the cost is just nuts, would a good, solid SP with another year to contribute in 2023 be worth it? I keep saying, even rental RP's have value and could be re-signed, and perhaps either or both COULD have control. But then again, you pay more. Sorry, but I keep thinking about 2019 and Romo and Dyson. Romo was re-signed and a healthy and not "problem" Dyson probably would have been as well. I just keep thinking there is a middle road where the FO could make moves to keep 2022 on track to win as much as possible, not give up, see what happens, and still maybe add to 2023 as well. -
My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand
DocBauer replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Your point is both liked and well taken. And I fully appreciate the need for 5 with all the injuries and such. But isn't there a compromise between trading and not trading? Theoretically, the Twins actually DO acquire a good, solid SP to team with Gray and Ryan and whoever else. If said arm has another year, it helps to finish 2022 as well as possible and have another rotation piece set for 2023. If they DO acquire a couple pen arms...whether they have control beyond, or are rentals that could be re-signed, or a combination of both...those arms still help finish 2022 as strong as possible and could, again, help in 2023. Finding some cheap SP rental for next to nothing might be pretty tough, if not impossible. So the 4th and 5th spot will probably remain Bundy, Archer, Smeltzer and TBD. Nick had proposed a PTBNL for SOME veteran catcher to not rely on rookie Hamilton. I think that's possible, do-able, but maybe too late with less than 24hrs to go, and with other more important possible moves. Just saying, not giving up on 2022 might be a mistake, especially if they could move a few guys to add to 2023 as well. -
Twins Tidbit: Jose Miranda is a Top Rookie Slugger
DocBauer replied to TwinsData's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think what we've been watching is a very talented young hitter just beginning to figure it out. And he's only going to get better. I see him as a fixture for the next several years in the lineup with, HOPEFULLY, an eventually healthy AK and Larnach. IMPO, I think the defense arguements against Miranda have been blown out of proportion. First of all, I've seen a whole lot of rookies, not just with the Twins, struggle a bit with defense at first. Rookies are playing and hitting at an entirely different level, with an entirely different sort of pressure. Secondly, being a young rookie, 21-24yo, and being a top prospect, doesn't mean there isn't work yet to do. Most aren't a finished product, infield in particular, when promoted, and their bat gets them promoted first. And third, while I don't have the numbers in front of me at the moment, he has been primarily a 3B the past few years. So his learning more about 1B at the ML level, and making rookie mistakes, doesn't surprise me. NOTE: I've seen him make a poor play at 1B and then same game, or next, do exactly what he was supposed to. So he's learning. At 3B, reflecting on the Twins ONLY, Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, defensive improvement doesn't happen over night. I think the kid is going to be just fine. -
Have the Twins Seen the End of Miguel Sano?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There remains a chance that Sano's latest setback is brief and nothing more than a "tweak". Little scar tissue situation or a small hyper extension, that sort of thing. So he rehabs and rests, goes back to St Paul, mashes a couple of days, and then takes a week to settle in and look bad before connecting on a few hits, take a few walks, and hit a couple of bombs. So he just MIGHT give the Twins a month and a half of solid production, maybe a couple big moments, as sort of a "parting gift", not including the possibility of him, potentially, making some noise in the post season at the bottom of the order. But that's it. He doesn't fit this team in 2023, and is now probably untradeable. So we might see him, especially due to other injuries. But if we do, it's a last hurrah.- 37 replies
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