DocBauer

I don't want to play the "overly optomistic" card, but Ryan is, for all intents and purposes, a rookie. He's doing really well, but a couple speed bumps shouldn't be unexpected. And it also would be unexpected to see him start to pitch much better again soon. He's a pretty savvy kid. Agree Gray just hasn't been the same. Days off and the break could do wonders to get him righted again. And let's hope so as we really need him. I like Smeltzer a lot as a person/story and a wiley LH. I think he's better than his last couple of starts, but not as good as his first 5-6. But he might be perfect as a mid/long/piggyback arm in the pen and just keep Winder in the rotation. The pen is what it is until re-inforcements arrive. And there should be a couple by the end of the month. A healthy Alcala would be a huge boost as well. Duffey's time as a Twin may be coming to an end, but he's experienced and savvy enough he might just finish off this season as a solid middle guy. The offense deserves better. Should have swept the Dirty Sox, but will always take 2 of 3 in any series. Was very disappointed in losing a pair to the Rangers. They do have some real talent, but I just think we're the better team. Need to finish strong before the break.

Absolutely NOT disagreeing with your thoughts on the matter. As I stated above, I'm OK with a couple additions and one or both having control. But to re-state, any short term rentals can also be re-signed if they look good and seem to "fit in" with the team. Further, rentals will cost a little less to acquire. Additionally, there may be an arm or two ready for the pen next season such as Alcala and maybe Sands or Canterino transitioning, for example. And if the FO starts taking the pen more seriously, there may be a FA or two to consider next offseason as well. That just costs a contract. So just saying, NOT getting Additional control is not necessarily a bad thing as far as next season is concerned, providing more flexibility, as long as the FO doesn't remain passive.

I'm not opposed to spending more and getting an arm or two that have control though I am also a bit leary on new "breakouts". But would just like to point out that trading for a rental doesn't mean there can't be mutual interest and a re-signing. The Romo and Dyson trades cost little in 2019 and while Dyson ended up being hurt and didn't help, both additions were smart moves. And Romo was really nice to have around in 2020. If Dyson had been healthy and not a head case, (which nobody knew until after the fact), they might have gone 2 for 2. Help is needed, however it comes. Just reminding that being a rental arm isn't a bad thing, and doesn't mean they wouldn't be back.

Thank you for all your hard work Jeremy, including this mock, getting ready for the draft. While the names may change, the draft aa you've proposed here sounds very "Twins like" with thus FO. Take the HS SP in round 2, grab a bunch of arms that they can work with and develop from the college ranks, and maybe even draft an injury flier or two with high upside, e en if you have to wait a year on them. (They've done that before). Can never have enough good pitching, that's for sure. I'm a little leary of the P/Player imbalance here, but the past few drafts and a good deal of the international signings have been pretty strong in player numbers so I guess I'm OK at the end of the day. Really would like to see a higher/better catcher or a pair. But they drafted 3 last year, (though only 1 is doing anything with the bat so far), and from what I've read and heard, just sounds like a down year for backstop. Cross just makes sense at #8 if nobody falls. He's either a better hitter than Kepler, or a faster version of Larnach. Both sound good to me. But if the Twins believe Neto would stick at SS, I just wonder if he doesn't provide such an overall balance to his game as to be the better selection?

I have a soft spot for LH pitchers and catchers. My interest in catchers probably pales to Seth's great love, by I appreciate how very important they are, and how rare really good ones are at the ML level. And with discussion about the impending draft, there has been a lot of discussion about the drafting of a catcher(s) this year. This article is about what's in the Twins system right now, and NOT intended to yet another debate/opinion piece about Jeffers or Sanchez on our beloved parent club. Let me just briefly cover the obvious: you like Jeffers and his defense and his bat potential or you think he's a backup only, and Sanchez is improved from what we expected but may or may not be back and you either like that idea or hate the idea. There ya go. Jeffers or Sanchez ARE appropriate to discuss in regard, generally speaking, to the depth of the system. The Twins have not ignored the catcher position, despite Jeffers being the only high recent draft selection. They have moved players to catcher in hopes of finding something. They added David Banuelos from Seattle in a trade a couple years ago, as well as Jair Carmago from the Dogers. They also drafted THREE catchers in 2021 in the 8th, 9th, and 20th round. Of course, they've drafted and signed others in the past few seasons as well, though again, not necessarily high. So they haven't exactly ignored the position. For some of us, there is a hope that Parada will somehow slide to the 8th spot and the Twins would jump on him. Despite being ranked in the "teens", there are some scouting reports...and let's face it, the ML draft is always a "who knows"...who think Susac is a really good option who might be as good or close. But what do the Twins have in the system right now? FIRST, THE BAD NEWS: Banuelos' defense is reported to be excellent. The Twins have had him in ST each of the last 2yrs and kept him late in 2022 to work in games. But the bat hasn't been very good and isnt good this year, though he is slightly ahead in every area but BA. But slightly better still brings only a .700 OPS at AAA. He's only 25yo, so there may be some hope still. Signings Godoy and Cisco have, frankly, performed poorly and have quad slash lines below their career milb numbers. At 27yo each, there's not much hope. Fellow journeyman Roy Morales, also 27yo, has actually performed beyond his career quad slash. He actually had a pretty solid year for Wichita in 2021, is slightly below those numbers with only 85AB this season but again, ahead of career numbers. Not sure what to hope for there, but at least his bat has been trending upward. Looking lower than AAA, converted 3B/1B Andrew Bechtold just hasn't hit well at all, which is disappointing as it looked like he may have found his bat and power in 2021 after losing it post his first year in the system. The Twins sent him to the AFL to work on his catching conversion, but the bat has regressed. Being brief and ignoring a few more catchers who have done nothing, the biggest disappointment might be Charles Mack. The former 3B, 6th round pick is hitting an anemic .168/ .256/ .286/ .592. NOW THE GOOD NEWS: Converted infielder Caleb Hamilton, still playing in the dirt at times, is providing a quad slash of .243/ .384/ .451/ .835. All career highs. The BA might not be there, but his other numbers show pop and strike zone control. Could he be a decent backup/3rd catcher option? Even at 27yo? Jair Carmago got off to a great start with Cedar Rapids before a promotion to AA. His numbers have slipped since the promotion, but he's only 23yo. A slash of .282/ .299/ .511/ .810 are all career highs. Alex Isola perked real interest in 2021 with his bat while catching and playing other spots as well. The 23yo in 2022 is slashing .307/ .400/ .500/ .900. All career bests so far. A big surprise might be 25yo Chris Williams. He was a cheap senior sign a couple years ago who had an arm injury his senior year that limited him to DH and 1B. Personally, I had high hopes when the Twins drafted him. But basically, he was pretty lousy his first couple of seasons. But here he is now, catching at AA, and putting up some really great numbers of .287/ .381/ .534/ .915. Battling injuries when drafted, is he a late bloomer? I've heard positive reports about his game calling and repore with pitchers. Pat Winkel, 2021 round 9 pick is hitting solid at Cedar Rapids, .266/ .330/ .456/ .786. (His fellow 2021 draftees, FWIW, Noah Cardenas and Dillon Tatum are doing nothing in the first full seasons). Hamilton has a shot. I'm much more interested in Carmago. And I'm really, really interested in Isola and the late blooming and finally healthy Williams. I want to see more and hear more about them. I don't think the system is entirely EMPTY, but I think there's real room to add to the catcher position in this draft. But I hope I've presented at least a relevant discussion point to look at.

What's not to be excited about here? He's LH, throws 4 at least decent pitches (reportedly), with solid control. If the 94-97mph he's been reported at is consistent, he's absolutely deserving of his ranking. He only threw 10 innings after being drafted last year split between rookie ball and A-. Currently he has fewer hits than IP, a solid .232 BA against, better than a 4-1 SO/BB ratio while jumping straight to A+ this year. Walks are a little high but not bad. Only real negative I can see is 7 HR in 63 innings. Filling out doesn't necessitate his becoming huge. It means getting a little stronger to potentially further increase velocity, but also to be able to maintain velocity over multiple innings. He was listed only about 185lbs when drafted, so I'd love to see him add a little muscle. Not sure it's going to be tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him at AA for a handful of games to end the season.

In regard to game 3 with the Dirty Sox, considering how crazy that game was, with Thursday off, as well as the coming Monday, and having had the previous day off, and only throwing 9 pitches, I felt Duran should have gone out for the 10th. I appreciate monitoring our unbelievable and talented rookie, but again, he wasn't spent and had the next day off, plus the day off following the Ranger series. I don't agree with that move. In regard to Ryan, 85 pitches in only 4 innings meant he was being battled, going long in counts and just didn't have his best game. And let's not forget, the 2 runs he allowed were in the 4th. His arm could have handled another inning, but I think the consensus was he was pretty much done at that time. In regard to the rotation in general...and I'm not going to research weeks of IP and number of pitches thrown, and I really shouldn't have to...listening/watching the games and just looking at box scores would reveal a number of games the past few weeks where just about every member of the rotation has been throwing 90-100 pitches. There's also been a number of 6 IP games, and even a couple 7 IP games. Even Archer threw 2 or 3 5 IP games until his last one before being placed on the IL. So while the rotation hasn't been cranking out 7 IP games on any regular basis, they have been stretched out more than they were the first couple of months. The pen remains an issue. But the rotation has been stretched out, due to being ready, as well as the pen now being 1 arm shorter. So it's also by necessity as well as readiness. Even as poor as the pen has been, there are times in a game when you have to ask yourself what makes more sense: throwing a SP in the 90 pitch range facing the heart of a lineup for the 3rd time, OR, turning to a poor/inconsistent fresh arm out of the pen and crossing your fingers a bit?

I was going to say Larnach with better wheels, but I like your analogy as well. The more I've read and heard about Cross the more I like him. You can never have enough good players and you try not to draft solely for need. Therefore, I'm not against Cross as being "redundant" at all. I think he'd be a fine pick. But I'm still holding out some small hope for Parada or Collier. But I'm not gonna be disappointed if it's Cross.

1] 5-6 wins but I think 7 is really, really do-able. 2] We're the better team and have 6 home games. Miranda and Kirilloff are hitting well and that compliments Buxton, Arraez, Correa, etc. 3] Keys? The offense keeps producing and doesn't waste too many opportunities. (See point 2). The pen won't be great...duh...but there will be fewer implosion. 4] The FO is going to add a pair of quality set up types, who might even have a little closing experience, similar to 2019 when they added a pair of arms without having to pay a premium. (Just no injury screw up like Dyson this time). So probably guys on final years, with the idea of a possible re-sign. Might they pay a little more for 1 of the 2 to have additional control?

A surprise or two, someone believing and liking someone and looking for an under slot signing and someone falls would be ideal, and maybe probable. (I think teams looking to save money for pitching in the 2nd round makes sense since there are few top arms in the early portion of the 1st). Parada or Collier dropping to the Twins at 8? YES PLEASE!

A lot of work done here and very appreciative of the effort. And no question there is some interesting numbers for comparison across the league. Thanks for taking the time! I'm going to be a bit contrarion here in my opinions, but I'm OK with that. I've watched and listened to a load of Twins games this season, as I always have, and that includes watching Jeffers in his 3yr ML career. Recently, injury or lack of concentration IDK, Jeffers has had a few passed balls. Now, maybe I'm wrong, maybe it's just a current negative view of Jeffers because of some of the painful losses, but I honestly don't recall passed balls being an overt problem previously. Secondly, IMO, the most important parts of being a quality backstop is game calling, setting a good target, and having good communication and trust with the staff. I think he does that. I accept he's not great at throwing out runners. No argument there. But I have to state, for the record, the pitchers holding on runners is part of the caught stealing equation as well. And the current philosophy the Twins employ, right or wrong, agree or disagree, is to worry more about the batter and just getting outs vs focusing "too much" on the opponents running game. And it makes some sense to me as teams simply don't run any longer like they used to. Still, his throwing needs work, may never be great, and I am in agreement. I think the biggest issue is the disappointment in Jeffer's bat. If the bat is better, I doubt there is as much angst or debate as to his value or quality as a catcher. I never bought he was going to have a great 2021 year at the plate despite his "breakout" rookie 2020 season. He was pushed to MLB pretty quickly and did well. But I expected regression in 2021. What's surprising to me, and very disappointing, has been the lack of improvement here in 2022. Frankly, I expected more. Every time he seems to get on a roll for a week, he suddenly slumps the next week. And I don't have an answer. But while it seems he's been around for a long time, he's got the short 2020 year, 2021, and about a half season here in 2022. He's still only 25yo, has only 500AB, and he hit in college and hit in the minors. He was a bat first catcher when drafted. I feel the talent/potential is still there to be at least a decent hitting catcher with power. I buy in to him as a solid defensive catcher, overall, with some room for improvement to be sure. And I am surprised and disappointed in his bat right now. And call me an optomist if you want, but I think the bat is going to come around over the next season or two. I just wish said transformation would begin NOW.

Agree with Shaitan above, where's the love for Polanco? He's not going anywhere soon, I'd wager. I'll leave Lewis out FOR NOW simply because he needs to get healthy and stay healthy. He does that, he's definitely part of the core. But AK, Larnach, Miranda are all to be considered by next year if not now. Oh heck, let's just have a core 12!

Congratulations to both young men. They clearly deserve the honor. Both should be ready some time next year. Two more really nice young players to add to an already good mix.

I feel kinda bad here because I didn't have an opportunity to comment on the Neto post. I mean, as much as I love my Twins, my son getting married July 4th kinda took over any blogging, lol. I admit to no previous knowledge of Williams at this point, other than presented here as I haven't taken time to read or look at BA. Again, been busy and sidetracked. Height doesn't bother me. Big time power doesn't concern me. Again, think Arraez as a fallback, Steer...a little bigger...and sorry...but to compare Altuve to anyone is pretty unfair. Never understood where "gamer" and "ballplayer" became negatives. Again, think Arraez. Just from what I've read here, without additional research, I'm thinking this is a very, very interesting option who has a lot of tools to work with, especially hit and OB tools, combined with some speed. And a few years from now, someone will have to eventually take over for Polanco, though they probably won't be the same player. But injury to his arm has to be a concern. Does he have the arm to stick at SS or play CF "old school" where you are outstanding with glove and arm and do all the important things such as HIT and get OB? He just might. Despite Miller as the top SS in the system, I'm OK with another top SS draftee, IF the arm checks out. Especially if under slot brings in an arm in round 2. But while older doesn't Neto offer almost the same profile? Neto is a 50 on defense, which concerns me, but has seemingly more proven "hit" ability and probably as close or better power and speed profile. He also fits the 'gamer" and "ballplayer" profile, which is not a bad thing. He can potentially "do it all" with a little more certainty than Williams. Also, there still might be a $ savings for round 2. I'm very interested, but not sure Williams is the right choice.

Detroit is like kryptonite, in the Central at least. They are either going to bottom out further, OR, they are going to be very dangerous in a couple of years beyond the Central. I'm not 100% on Ryan finding a certain pitch. His stuff plays. And his increased slider usage really plays up his deceptive FB. He's still, basically, a rookie. There's a lot of general learning left to do. And he's smart enough to figure it out. I think, for now, his problem is just getting back to "rhythm" coming off his covid. I don't have a lot of faith in Megill in pressure situations. But I've watched him in games and ST and was kinda wowed with what he threw. And I've been thinking since I first watched him throw in ST; "if he could do this consistently....". Maybe a silent steal, but he should be nothing more than a middle guy at this point. I think he honestly has a chance with some time. Did an absolute "spit take" in reference to Jeffers having the decency to SO to give Arraez another chance to hit. High 5er to make me laugh that hard after a loss.

Crap happens. You can't win them all. Period. We are having a very good season and are in 1st place in our division and control our own destiny. These, and a solid rotation and a lot of good and good young players and pitchers are part of all of the good that is happening. And we won this series. So the sky isn't falling. Again, crap happens. BUUUUT, there were some pretty bad things I saw in my 2 innings watched, and the box and just following the GameDay tracker when I could. Ryan is good, only going to get better, but just didn't have it today. His strike percentage was good, and only allowed 2BB, but 85 pitches in 4 innings doesn't get it done. I'm going to have to assume some deep counts, despite the solid strike percentage, and a lot of foul balls. Only way you can have that many pitches in just 4 innings. He's been in the 90 and even 100 pitch range previously. I don't know the answer, but did he look "done" after 4? Or was he looking strong enough that maybe the Twins should have tried for a 5th inning? I have to guess after allowing 2 in the 4th he was just toast. I am not upset at Jax for allowing a run. He's been a wonderful and unexpected surprise and maybe the 2nd best arm in the pen this year, despite being barely past rookie status and in his 1st year transitioning to the pen. I'm not even mad that Moran lost the game in the 10th. Disappointed, absolutely, but not angry. He's a talented young arm with a future who's looked pretty good so far, placed in a pressure situation against a team with some pretty good bats and it wasn't his day. I sort of WANT to be mad at Megill as he's got a live arm and has some promise, but he should be about the 12th man in a proper pen plan and should be "breaking in" with the Twins as an extra/middle innings spot until he proves to be capable of something more. Who AM I angry with? I'm angry with the FO...again who I like and mostly support for a myriad of different reasons...for not taking the 2022 pen more serious. They couldn't have predicted the injury to Alcala. They didn't know...how could anyone really...how fast and furious trades and the such were going to happen post-lockout? By the time they made the deal with SD, there really wasn't anyone left to sign. But they needed another arm BEFORE they traded Rogers. And that may be more agregious than the trade itself! Look, a year from now, we may be loving having Paddack and the young prospect who escapes my memory at the moment. Plus, who says a healthy and productive Paddack isn't a quality re-sign? And yet, I still wouldn't have made the deal. I would have kept Rogers, signed another arm I really liked, and hoped for a Rogers re-sign if he looked like he deserved it. Even with the trade of Rogers, how much different might the pen look, and different results, IF the FO HAD made that ONE good addition to go along with what is currently on hand? And I'm ticked off that I'm beating an obviously dead horse for about the 7th time. And I'm ticked off at Pagan. NOT as a person. I'm sure he's probably a really good guy. But as a PERFORMER, I'm disappointed and upset. Despite a high velocity FB and a new splitter that seem OK, he just can't deliver. Period. He's not an inexperienced rookie just adapting and feeling his way. And I understand injuries and lack of arms is impacting Rocco and decision making. And while other guys have garnered 3 or 4 losses over the past couple of weeks, it has been his veteran, experienced arm that has directly and only somewhat indirectly lead to at least 5 losses in games in which the starters and batters have done about all they could do. (As well as some good pen performances). The Twins lead in the Central is a solid 4.5 games. But it could easily be 10-12 games right now without some huge meltdowns. This also affects end of the season numbers that could influence playoff positioning. Do I dismiss the FO for the W-L record and Central lead being better due to mistakes made? Absolutely not! But sometimes you have to look at an individual performer in any career situation and just realize this individual just doesn't do the job. And sorry, that's Pagan. He just shouldn't be a Twin any longer. Literally, almost any young arm brought up by the Twins could pitch as bad as he's been, and hopefully better. It's just time. As far as Rocco...who I also generally support and believe in for a number of reasons...I understand Correa had today off. And I understand that Thursday is a day off and arguements could be made he should play no matter what with that in mind. Not sure I agree, but I understand the frustration. It's a long season and he's pretty much been an iron man when healthy. So give him the day off! But he can't pitch hit in a crucial situation and just play an inning or two with Thursday off??? I FULLY 100% SUPPORT BEING CAREFUL WITH DURAN AFTER LIMITED IP IN 2021! Did I announce that loud enough? LOL. And I want him to continue to grow and develop and keep his arm fresh for the entire season and a playoff run. But 20 pitches Monday, off Tuesday, only 9 pitches today and an off day Thursday? Twins probably win today if Duran gets another IP Good year. Sky is not falling. Our destiny is in our hands. FO has to make a couple good moves.

A good list, and good arguements. Rodriguez should be ahead of Miller, despite him being a CF/OF. Roughly the same age but was killing it before his knee injury and should be more dynamic of a bat/player. Giving Balazovic ALL THE CREDIT for his arm and potential based on a couple nagging injuries. The ability and potential hasn't gone away. Sands is getting untracked and looking good again. His future might be in the pen, we'll see. I'd keep he and the young Raya where you have them. Same with Festa for now. Festa may warrant being higher when the year is done. SWR is fair based on age and experience. Tons of potential, but very young and his "schedule" has been advanced and weird. Not exactly where I'd place him, but I'd place Wallner higher. Looks like the bat may be for real and he should be at least OK in the OF. Sorry, can't give Balazovic allowances, and Enlow...deservedly so IMO...and then downgrade Canterino. He's never been hurt until last year and now, but neither injury seems surgical. May just mean, unfortunately, he's a RP and not a starter. Disappointing if true. But he could be as good as Duran in the pen and maybe that's just, reluctantly, where he ends up. But he could be a stud there! Shouldn't Varland be higher? Not sure who he'd bump, but I think he's better than where you have him. HUGE fan of Povich. Is Hajjar just behind him if healthy again soon and his BB looking better? Soularie is on the upswing and very talented, but where he should be for now. Same with Rosario. Helamn is probably right for a super-utility player. Don't apologize for Julien being fairly high and being another super-utility type at this point. The skills and talent are there! But Sabato is out of my top 30. Cavaco is near the bottom until he sparks at some point.

Agreed. Which is why I make the comparison IF you knew/really felt that was the kind of bat you were drafting. You know, if your crystal ball was working. Otherwise, as stated, I'm passing on Berry.

While he was a late bloomer development wise, and not a switch hitter, if you could draft Nelson Cruz out of college with the 8th pick, you'd do it. It would be foolish not to, regardless of his being strictly a DH. (Though to be fair Cruz did play OF initially). Drafting an almost position-less player like Berry, you are basically saying you believe you are drafting a Cruz type bat, hit/power/OB. That's an awful lot of expectation to pick a 1B/DH only at 8. I just wouldn't do it. Catcher or best bat actual position player available. Why is it I keep liking Neto more and more even though he's ranked out if the tip 10? Good chance there is a surprise in the first 7 selections and someone falls to us at 8. But, a 2B only position player with a bat, or a toolsy OF with questionable hit tool frustrates me. I want the best, most balanced player I can get at 8. Starting to wonder if someone outside of the top 10 isn't the safest and smartest selection.

I do? Miranda the past 30 days: .315/ .344/ .533/ .877 w/ 4HR and 16 RBI and trending Kirilloff the past 15 days, barely back: .260/.278/.420/.698. Krilloff the past 7 days, barely back: .333/ .370/ .542/ .912 w/ 1HR and 12 total RBI and trending. Larnach as of June 15th had 13 doubles, 5 HR, a .246 AVG and 124OPS+. Didn't have access to monthly numbers. Not sure he wasn't already suffering from injury on June 15th. TOP prospects getting first chance or coming back from injury and looking good, or looking good before injury in the case of Larnach. AK was RAKING at AAA before his promotion. Wish I had the full numbers of Larnach month to month, and his BA against LHP. Three of our TOP prospects all trending upward.

A very interesting article/OP! And despite a TON of data, even I can follow most of it, lol. The just of everything, broken down to the most simple terms that I see are as follows: 1] Like the Dogers, have enough pitching talent and depth that you have the luxury of pulling guys when you want, say an inning early, and simply not risk an extra time through the order, and make your back end starters that much more effective. You have a couple studs at the front of the rotation you can run with, but still have the luxury of pulling them on a not so great day. Obviously, that is optimal. Also not a formula that works for most teams as they don't have or can't afford as many quality, front of the rotation arms. 2] More like the Ray's, you still need good arms for the rotation. But you might only have 2 guys who are comparable, but not 3. Perhaps your 4 and 5 are solid, maybe close, maybe not quite as good. So your OVERALL rotation scores is a 6-7 vs a Doger's score of 8, more or less. So now you're needing a good 2, maybe 3, that can come in to pitch 2-3-4 innings and bridge the gap to what still needs to be a good 3-4 quality back end arms. I see what the Twins are trying to do, more along the Ray's way of doing things. It's also clear it's not working that way due to talent available, as well as injury. Regardless of MLB messing with defensive rules, baseballs, and 3 batter rules, the 2 biggest changes in baseball are probably expansion and the lack of rotation depth across the board, and the change of offensive approach to power and launch angles and the such. The power approach has been building for the past 25+ years due to the evolution of analytics as well as changes to conditioning and weight training. Back to the OP: The Twins have a pair of very good SP to lead their rotation. Arguably, comparable to most any contending team. One proven veteran and one quality rookie/1st year player. It gets a little murky after that. Personally, I think Ober is a really good looking starter who was pitching even better than 2021 before his groin injury. Winder was looking really good in the pen and the rotation before his injury. And he looked really good in his last start. How much more does Smeltzer have to show to prove he's a solid back end arm? Bundy was great, then not, then has looked good again. Archer has been what he's been, which is pretty good for 4 IP, but has been getting stronger and better and stretched out until his last game when control left him. I'm not sure the Twins aren't about to be ready to follow "the plan" as stated in the article/OP. A healthy Ober, and suddenly the Twins have 7 SP of various degrees. HOWEVER you line them up, you suddenly have 5 SP and 2 piggyback/middle/long RP. In Duran, Jax, and maybe Thielbar, (who's season has been pretty good and has good peripherals, and who's overall production has been skewed by 3 really bad games), you have a few arms at the back end of the pen you can generally count on. It doesn't help the Twins' plan that a potentially important arm like Alcala has been out for the season thus far. It's very debatable how much the loss of Stashak might be, or the loss of the hard throwing Megill who was showing some life, or veteran journeyman Coulombe, looking at least solid. But if you take that initial 10 man group and make trades for a couple solid, capable veterans, you are suddenly looking at the Ray's version of the plan almost exactly. Add Moran, who's looked pretty good, who has potential, and needs to be kept and not yo-yo'd up and down, and you have a 13 man staff that SHOULD WORK, and could work well. And while not great, options like Minaya, Cotton, Sands and others are available to fill in as needed without having to be pushed in to high leverage situations. An arm, probably two, should have been added, especially after the trade of Rogers, even though it was probably too late to add the 2nd arm. Maybe Pagan COULD have been a middle guy? But it's not too late if the FO can just add a couple solid guys, hopefully SOON. Now, Maeda back next year, Paddack back June or July, the continued development of Winder and Smeltzer, etc, things look potentially even better in 2023. Toss Alcala in the pen and a more experienced Moran, etc, and, again, 2023 is looking even better. But for NOW, everything presented can WORK with a pair of good arm additions. The FO can bring in a couple of solid rentals, with the ability to re-sign if wanted. They could dig a little deeper and trade for a couple arms with control, maybe eating some $. They could split the difference. But Winder back up, Ober back healthy, a pair of solid additions, the staff is set up to do exactly what is being presented here.

Preferencing my comments by stating that while frustrated by Sano's cold starks and "streakiness" during the balance of the season, I have largely defended him and what he brings to the lineup. Now, unless he's in "hot" mode, I've never liked him in the 3 or 4 spot in the lineup. I've always liked him better 5-7, knocking guys in that are hopefully OB, and his cold spells don't impact as much. And his power and production DOES and HAS added to runs and wins over time. But the simple truth is, he's not part of the future and it's very doubtful he is back next year. And he's been passed on the roster by younger players with good ceilings who are just better overall in Kirilloff, Larnach and Miranda. Urshela isn't better than Sano, but he's OK and a different type of player with greater defensive value. Steer may be ready by next year, and Wallner may be ready within a year. Now, a long and successful rehab and he looks like his "hot" self and there is an injury, he could, potentially, provide real value in August and September to close out this year. He can DH and play 1B and just be dangerous as hell. Let's be honest, he could crank out 10-15 HR and another 10-12 doubles with 25-30 RBI over that 2 month span. He could also struggle to hit .220 with hardly any contact or power or production. I just don't see a DFA. But I also don't see room unless another good bat is demoted or someone is hurt. But as is often said, these things often take care of themselves. He just might help still. Other teams aren't stupid. They know who and what Sano is, and isn't. The best case scenario would be a hit rehab, and a team, preferably in the NL, who is hurting for RH power and would either trade a rental BP piece they feel they could afford to give up, or a milb BP arm knocking at the door and seemingly ready for a shot. He could also be part of a deal for said ML BP arm.

In an ideal situation, the Twins repeat basically what they did in 2019 and bring in a pair of solid vets for a top 30 prospect, or two, and a couple lower A toss ins. This time, they get a pair of arms that are BOTH healthy. Then, there is at least the possibility of either Maeda and/or Alcala being healthy and available to add and really ramp up the depth and options. I'm not betting on either, but we're talking limited innings for the rehabbed Maeda, and Alcala showed late in 2021 that he might have been turning a corner. But again, I wouldn't be counting on them, just optimistic they might factor. I'm not sure how Ober fits in if everyone is healthy and ready to go. I wasn't surprised Winder was sent down as he wasn't going to be available for 4 days no matter what. I do think he will be up very soon as, frankly, he's a better arm than at least 2 or 3 arms currently in the pen. Of course, he further complicates the rotation issue as its very arguable that despite being a rookie, he's one of the teams best 4 SP. But so is Ober. In 2021 he got better as the season went along. He was throwing just as well, if not better, here in 2022 before his groin injury. No, he didn't look all that great in his couple of starts when he came back, but clearly he was just settling in again, or not 100% as he ended up back on the IL again. But he is a fine, young, good looking young SP who is part of the future, unlike Bundy or Archer, in all probability. Having 7 potential, good/solid SP is a GOOD problem to have. I don't know if a 6 man rotation works as the staff is only 13 right now, and has already been...well...what it is. If Bundy keeps pitching as he has been lately, can you pull him? Archer is looking better and better and has been going 5 innings lately, except for his last start. Do you pull him? It almost seems at least one of the 7 has to go to the pen, which helps there, and offers up the long piggyback option that is probably needed. I don't know how this is going to work out, glad I don't have to make the decision, but Ober is a quality arm and an important part of this team and it's future, and that should be remembered.

As Dman mentioned, and I referred to yesterday, you can almost feel like you dodged a bullet with TJ surgery already "out of the way". I don't know the numbers, but I suspect repeat surgeries are a pretty low percentage. The Twins drafted a pair of good looking young LH arms last year, plus about 4 more. So while they refused to publicly admit it, they were concentrating on an organizational weakness. Prielipp adds a tremendous amount of additional port side potential to the system. His injury doesn't bother me. It's the lack of IP. Just who does he truly project to be with a ton of talent but so little history? Still...I'm tempted at 8 unless someone falls in to my lap. I believe the FO is OK taking chances, but risk adverse. As tempting as it may seem for at least a couple of the best arms in the draft, 8 just feels risky. History says there will be a surprise in the first 7 and someone good will fall to us, so discussions about pitching may be a moot point. But if it's another questionable defense bat first option at 8, I don't know that adding a pitcher with high upside wouldn't be the most prudent move.

Darkly humorous, absolutely. Made me laugh to be sure. But equally sucks in reality. For the 2nd year Larnach has had an injury that is curtailing his development and his contributions to the lineup. Grrr. I just don't want to re-examine the Urshela vs Miranda debate yet again. I really like so many things about Urshela and am kinda hoping there's room for him on the 2023 roster in some capacity. But it's very, very easy to so Kirilloff, Miranda, and Larnach in some 4-6 combination for 2023 and going forward. And yes, I left Kepler out of that group. As good as he has been at times, as good as he's been this year, seeming to really change his approach at the plate...hitting LHP again like he had done a few times previously in his career and may be growing as a hitter...I'm slotting him lower than the other LH bats of AK and Larnach FOR NOW. He could easily prove this year is not an aberration and jump in to the 4-6 discussion. It's all on him. But I'd be ecstatic if the others were so good, expected and projected good, that they would force him to be a tremendous bottom of the order AB with his great defense.