DocBauer

Thanks for a great OP Jamie. I think you pretty much nailed things right on the head. I want to say I really like a lot of the comments and opinions presented here. I'd like to add a couple of thoughts overall before addressing the 3 points in the OP: 1] The goal is to win as much as you can and make the playoffs. That goal has never changed in the history of MLB, regardless of the post season structure. You can't win anything unless you make it that far first. Period. From there, anything can happen. We've seen that with our own Twins previously, the Braves last season, and various winners of the years. If the very best regular season, highest winning teams won all the time, there would be no reason for playoffs anyway. The Dogers would be a great example over the past 5-10yrs, not to pick on them. 2] I hate when the Twins offense is inconsistent. But who's offense is always consistent? Nobody's. Players and teams have good days and bad days and hot streaks and cold streaks. And I agree with Trov that perspective needs to be used in reference to the Twins having the most shutouts so far in 2022. Losing 5-0 or 1-0 remains a loss no matter what. If another comparable team has fewer shutouts but is lower scoring and has a lesser run differential, who's offense is really worse? There's a whole lot of context there to debate and disseminate. As to the OP, in reverse order of need: 1] Taking in to account what I previously stated, I question the need for a bat, as well as what it would cost and who you'd replace. AK and Garlick added, and the roster healthy, I just don't see any major holes. Sorry, I just don't with what we have now and how they produce overall. Right now the biggest problem is figuring out who to remove to get those 2 on the roster. That's a good problem to have! The only real issue I see is a number of young players such as Larnach, AK, Celestino, Miranda, who are just young and haven't been through the grinder. Talent isn't the problem. 2] Unless the Twins make a pretty MAJOR SP acquisition, I don't know that you vastly improve the rotation enough to warrant the move IF the guys on hand are HEALTHY. Fortunately, the Twins have about 6 weeks to see Ober and Winder healthy and to see if Smeltzer is for real as an option. And I'm not opposed to improving, don't get me wrong! But at what cost and to what degree of any improvement can you trade for? It better be pretty big if you do. 3] The pen is clearly the most obvious answer to seasonal and post season improvement. Getting by and being solid with what you have is different than crunch time, and that's not a shot at the guys who have gotten us here. I feel good about Duran, Jax, and Thielbar. I have questions about Pagan, but he's been looking pretty good as of late. I have a fair amount of faith in Smith if not overexposed. Barring a surprise or two over the next 6 weeks, what the pen needs is a pair of quality, veteran arms to lead the way. And I don't think you need to mortgage the future for some losing team's #1 pen arm who is All Star caliber. As i.mentioned in a different thread recently, in 2019 the Twins brought in a pair of solid, proven, veteran rentals in Segio Romo and Sam Dyson for a single top 30 prospect, another maybe top 40 one, and a couple of A ball fliers. Unfortunately, Dyson arrived injured and washed out. Romo was great, and was brought back for 2020. But something similar, two quality, proven arms as a rental would do wonders to deepen and strengthen the pen without sacrificing the future. Surely 4yrs later the cost of a pair of similar moves shouldn't suddenly be vastly more expensive should it?

So I like Gordon for his role: OK hit, speed on the basepaths, OK defense for three spots in the infield, and a pretty good OF with excellent range. He's young enough to show improvement as well. I do think his time with the Twins is limited due to Steer, Julien, and to a lesser extent, Helman and Palacios. The only problem is, while he's easy to replace as a 2B/3B/LF option, he's the #3 CF and #2 SS. Are the Twins comfortable with sliding Polanco over to cover SS when Correa is out? Are they OK with sliding Kepler over to CF as the #3 CF if needed? I'm not saying these are devastating options, or that someone can't be brought up the next day if there is a health/injury issue, I'm just stating that is Gordon's prime value to the team at the is moment, along with some PR duties. To bring on Kirilloff and Garlick, someone needs to go. Gordon is the most obvious, unless you are going to send Miranda or Celestino down, and I just don't see that happening, or as being a good idea.

Measuring defense for a catcher is the hardest defensive metric to evaluate. I've always said the best part of being a catcher is how you handle the staff. There's a reason guys have played 10÷years in the league despite average or poor offense. How big of a list do you want? Forget pitch framing for a moment, does your catcher block the plate, does he receive well, does he have the confidence of your staff? I'm sorry, I don't have the link right now, but I just read recently...believe it might have been here on TD...regarding how many games Jeffers has caught this year that resulted in 3 ER or less and it was impressive. He's a quality defensive catcher, and I'm just not sure how anyone can dispute that just watching him and the results. His arm is average at best. But in the re ent Ray's game, which has been brought up, the pitcher (Sands I believe), virtually ignored the runners at 1B. That makes the job of the catcher pretty damn hard. He'll never be great throwing guys out, but work, experience, and a little help from his pitcher can hopefully make him at least decent. I NEVER bought in to his offensive success when he first came up. Too much too soon, IMO. His 2021 numbers weren't great, but there was power and production, from a position you seldom see. I didnt expect greatness here in 2022, but I expected more than we've seen so far. But much like Garver, he hit in college. He hit in milb. He was pushed aggressively through the system. Hes only 25yo with 500 AB under his belt. The offensive ability is still there, the power is certainly there. Have the Twins made a mistake? IMO, absolutely not even though he has hasn't hit yet hit like hoped for. I might eat crow, but I think his bat will come around to be at least decent with power over the next year or so. Been impressed by the improvements of Sanchez. I'd be happy to have him back next season with Jeffers, and never thought I'd say that when the trade was made. I'm not happy with what I'm seeing right now, but like any young player, I think time, experience and coaching, we're going to see a better hitting Jeffers over the next year plus.

Completely understand your frustration. I'm as big of an AK believer and fan as you will find. I think he's a major part of the Twins lineup for the next 5-8+ years along with Larnach and probably Miranda as well. But I applaud the Twins for being patient and just letting him "feel good" mentally and physically and just rake at AAA to get ready. But there is a roster crunch/concern that is real right now. Whether the Twins go to 13 position players NOW, or when they are forced to in a week, there is ONE position player spot open. Unless someone goes on the IL, or is just moved, it's either Kirilloff or Garlick for the last spot. AK seems like the immediate answer because of his numbers and his importance for the future, but Garlick is an OK OF defensively who RAKES against LHP, which remains a confounding issue for the Twins in which there is no immediate answer.

Really, daily and weekly, there's not a lot to not like with these reports. The Twins system is having resounding success and so many guys are having good/great seasons. I understand the Twins aren't exactly top heavy with TOP 100 types, but the depth is outstanding. And FWIW, top 100 players don't always turn out, or turn out to be the best. So quantity of prospects is a very good thing. Only big bummers I can come up with is Balazovic not yet looking like his expected self, Canterino on the DL, and Rodriguez now hurt for the year. A few bullet points: 1] I've been disappointed in Sands this year. After his first couple of turns at St Paul, he just hasn't looked the same. For whatever reason, the consistency isn't there like I expected. I NEVER give up on a rookie pitcher at the ML level after their debut season. History has shown it can take a while to settle in. Berrios is a great example. I've seen enough of him to know he has the stuff to succeed at the highest level, but I'm starting to see him as potentially another Jax, his stuff playing up better in shorter stints. Still, he really looked solid at times in his last start against Tampa. Not going to give up on him yet. 2] Loved what I saw of Palacios defensively when he was up. He actually hit in the low minors before his trade to Tampa for Odorizzi. And while he didn't hit a lick there, he suddenly started hitting back in the Twins organization in 2021, and even flashed some pop/power. And he's been doing the same with St Paul this year. I think his ability to hit at the ML level is clearly TBD. As is any future role with the Twins, all the more complicated by the injury to Lewis. I'm glad there was no rule 5 this year as we may have lost him. He's absolutely going to be a 40 man add this offseason for many reasons. 3] The Twins are going to have a very interest conundrum, but a good one, in 2023 in regard to bench spots. Arraez is really a regular, and isn't going anywhere, of course. Gordon has become a very useful multi-purpose player who shows potential to still get better even. But Steer is going to force his way on to the club sooner or later. I'm not saying he's better than or is going to push Miranda, but he potentially could. I think there's room for both. I wish I knew how well he can fill in at SS, because that really increases his value if he's at least OK there. I'd like to think he can learn a little 1B, despite being just under 6 foot. If so, he's a 4 position player with a bat and power and potential. And Julien is just behind him. Again, I'm uncertain as to his defense, but he's 1B/2B/3B/LF who can hit, has an amazing OB ability, speed, and decent power. He could be an excellent 10th man, potentially, with all around offensive ability. And while a bit of a late riser, and after a solid 2021 and AFL, Hellman is suddenly reaching new heights of consistent production here in 2022. The Twins are about to be flush is versatile bench options who have real offensive and potential starting ability. Might as well throw Palacios in to that group as well. 4] I really hope the Twins stick with CES at 3B for as long as possible. I understand he's not a great athlete and is a bat first player. But from all reports I've read he's got a strong arm and fairly soft hands. Are his errors due to footwork? Wild throws despite a strong arm? Lack of basic fundamentals? This is only his first year of full season work. I would never want to compare a 2nd year prospect to great players like Gaetti or Koskie, but one had hands of stone and the other was too stiff to play 3B. IMO, keep him at 3B for as long as possible and keep working with him before transitioning him to 1B. 5] I really have NO CLUE what to expect from Hamilton, Isola, or Camargo as potential future catchers in the system, but I'd sure like "someone in the know" to offer up an honest breakdown of their potential. I understand catchers are often "built" rather than drafted as high prospects. It's one of the most difficult positions to draft and project. But these 3 seem to be rising up as the cream of the prospect crop in the system right now. 6] I know that most draftees play little, if at all, once signed their rookie years. And the elimination of the traditional rookie leagues has changed normal procedures we took for granted in the past. But I'm frustrated by the draft being pushed back to July. It feels like kids are going to get a late introduction and it might make mid year promotions more difficult.

I never had any personal dislike for Correa, even with the Houston scandal. But I've become a huge fan. He is an absolute joy to watch in the field! He makes almost every other SS look mediocre. The bat is good. The work ethic and clubhouse attitude is excellent. He seems to bring a real professionalism and leadership. I would enjoy him being a Twin for some time. And with all his tools, I can see him being a real asset until 32-33yo or so. But even if the market is flooded a bit and down a bit and he would have to "settle" for 8yrs and $30M per, we're still talking $240M minimum and $30M per while he's 35yo. Now, you might be able to front load that deal for the first few years while such of the roster is young and cost controlled. That's the only way I see Correa sticking around. I'm just being realistic. Palacios will never be a great hitter. But last season and this one he's turned a corner and showed that some of the early potential he showed when first signed is real. He can hit and run a bit and has a little pop. The glove is legit. I'd probably run with him, probably give him some competition on a 1yr option with someone, and let it ride. I've got Gordon, Urshela, and Steer to all provide some back up. But it's only June, the Twins are having a fine and and fun season, so I'm going to enjoy them and Correa and not worry too much about 2023 at this point.

It's really easy to get wrapped up in one bad game, one bad moment. Losing game 3 to the Yankees was an absolute gut punch! Watching it, it felt like just ONE reliever steps forward and does their job the game was ours. But that loss is just one loss, albeit a bad one. Illness and injury abounding, a weakened squad went through a tough stretch against 3 very good teams and came out 5-4. So they absolutely CAN play with and hang with the best teams. We knew Maeda was out for 2022, more than likely. But in Gray, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Dobnak you have an entire rotation on the DL. Then you can add 3 RP, one of which might have been our primary set up man. Then add covid and Canada/covid on top of that, (plus AK basically hurt and out for most of the season so far), and we're in 1st place and headed for more than 90 wins?? Color me happy and eager for playoff time. Just give me some better health and 2 RP from SOMEWHERE/ANYWHERE and the playoff win drought may be over.

In 2019 the Twins traded Jaylin Davis and Lewin Diaz and a couple low level fliers for Sam Dyson and Sergio Romero and Vallimont. It cost them a single top 30 prospect and a couple of fliers for a couple proven, veteran RP. Forget that Dyson ended up hurt and a not so good guy, Romero actually helped and helped a lot. If Dyson was healthy, the pen would have been that much better. Has baseball and potential trades changed so much in the past 3yrs that the Twins can't bring in a couple of solid, quality, proven BP arms similar to 2019 that would cost top prospects? Despite valid debates about consistency offensively....something I bet most teams have issues with...a healthy Twins lineup is not an issue. A healthy Kirilloff and Garlick will only help, though there would be a roster crunch.. With a healthy Gray, Ryan, Ober, Archer, and Winder, Bundy as a wild card "helper", the rotation is pretty strong. Yes, we can pine for the classic ACE that only a few teams truly have, but that's a nice rotation that can WIN. There are some solid pieces in our pen. Duran is a STUD but he would be better as a 1IP pitcher to get through the entire 2022 season. Jax shows real promise. So does Moran. Thielbar still looks good after a few bad early season games. Pagan is questionable, but has velocity and his new splitter has looked good at times. I like him as a middle guy who could set up. But unless a couple of the guys they keep rotating through suddenly step up and prove something...and I'm hopeful but realistic...the #1 thing this team needs is AT LEAST one quality BP arm. It would be better to add TWO. Reflect back to 2019, and forget Alcala will be back in 2022, if the Twins add another Dyson and Romero for a handful of 20-30ish prospects...which is equivalent or higher than 2019....the pen could be outstanding to finish 2022 and really solidify the pen for the rest of the season

I'm not going to put lipstick on a pig or paint a psychedelic silver/rainbow cloud, but despite some poor performances and keystone cops plays, the Twins went 3-3 against a pair of very good and talented teams. And they did this with a lineup just getting healthy, an FOUR SP on the IL. The pen needs help, no doubt. But that same pen helped win 2 games against the Jay's, and one against the Yankees, and could have won game 3 with the Yankees if ONE GUY stepped forward that night. So while I am MASSIVELY BUMMED about game 3 with the Yankees, I can still see some light at the end of the tunnel. The lineup is working. A few days from now, we should have some of our best arms back. Duran will be fine, Jax is looking good, Pagan can be a solid middle and set-up guy with Thielbar and Moran....but somehow, someway, they need a couple more RP for the pen for this team to truly contend.

Just an add: How crazy is timing? He doesn't play CF that day, the next day Correa goes on Covid and Lewis is the starting SS for 7-10 days and this injury probably never happens. No blame to anyone other than fate. But man, what lousy timing.

Of course, because....TWINS! I know all teams have injuries, to top players and lesser players, but looking back the last 15-20yrs, has any team had so many devastating and career affecting injuries to their top players? Taking the pity pillow off of my head, all the best to Lewis and his recovery. He's a talented and tough young man who will almost assuredly come out of this healthy, strong and ready to go and resume what should be a great career. But he sure doesn't deserve this.

I watched him in ST a couple of times and really liked his stuff. His numbers in St Paul looked good. I've seen a couple of his Twins performances and thought he acquitted himself well. I quit watching the Yankees game last night after the Duffey meltdown so I didn't see him pitch, but the box numbers weren't good. But the stuff is there to give him a shot. Not sure what else Cotton has to do to get a longer look.

I know there is no such thing as a true moral victory, but the Twins roster is just so depleted right now, and they went toe to toe against a very good Yankees team for 6 innings. When I saw Duffey come in, my heart sank and I just knew we were going to lose. Then he gets the 2 outs and suddenly I'm thinking the "good" Duffey might be back and we can still win this game. But, nope, the "bad" Duffey appeared again. I know players slump, and RP can look really awful when they do because of SSS, but Duffey just keeps doing this. I don't want anyone to fail and I don't want to see anyone lose their job, but right now Duffey looks no better than a mop up guy.

Why is Duffey getting such a long leash? Because he was great in 2019 and 2020. Because after a rough start in 2021 he adjusted, rebounded, and actually finished strong despite a drop in velocity and K rate. What's surprising to me is his sudden uptick in velocity, back up to 93-95 consistently, which he didn't have last season. But with little exception, he's not fooling anyone right now, for whatever reason. I do not believe he's around due to $. That money is spent. There is a hope and a prayer that his regained velocity and some adjustments will make his FB and curveball efficient again. But right now, I just don't see it. I'm seeing the emergence of Duran and Jax from the right side. I'm seeing Cotton, SSS, look like the re-built model of himself that pitched so well in milb 2021 and flashed a bit with the Rangers. I'm seeing reports of Alcala being healthy and throwing hard and just needing time to get ready. I appreciate everything Duffey has done for the Twins. I appreciate and understand them giving him another chance because we know that sometimes these things work out and a guy just gets right. But with no obligation beyond this year, money already spent, I feel better having Pagan come in at this point with better stuff. And I know he's scary, but I trust him and his still developing splitter than I trust Duffey at this point. And that saddens me. The Twins aren't going to make some major trade for an All Star RP. But I think they will make a deal for another Romo/Dyson that could pay dividends. They have a month for Duffey to have a "tired arm" or blister, or whatever to rehab in the minors for a few weeks and see if he can find himself again. Otherwise, he's out come early to mid July. The Twins are waiting on Alcala. They're hoping for Stashak to be healthy and flash what he shown at times when healthy. And don't think for a minute they aren't waiting for someone to step up. I think Duffey probably will get some kind of a IL stint, followed by a AAA rehab. They're not going to risk cutting bait too soon. But it will then be up to Duffey to force himself back up to the parent club. For some reason, Thielbar is always included in Duffey conversations/discussions. Not sure why. Thielbar allowed a lot of inherited runs to score in the nightmare that was 2021. But like Duffey, too little too late, he pitched much better later on. His 2022 numbers look like crap due to some early bad performances, but look really good his past couple of weeks. And I'm OK with that. I'd rather see a rough start and then settle in vs a rough start and continued bad performance. Duffey to the IL for whatever reason and then rehab. If you show something, you 'll get a shot. And that would be great. But you have to be better than Duran, or Jax, or Alcala , and a few others on the rise. And maybe/probably at least one solid traded for arm. Did I mention Smith? The onus is on Duffey to find something that works and make him an important piece again. Could be tough.

The problem isn't fitting Kirilloff in to the lineup, or finding AB for him. The problem right now is fitting him on the 26 man roster. I'm a huge fan and believer in AK. I think he, and Larnach, are going to each be major building blocks for the Twins the next 5-8yrs, health providing. And later this month, unless there is another rule change to extend the 14 pitcher max, staffs will have to set at 13. That leaves 13 position players. So let's look at that for a moment. Jeffers and Sanchez are set at catcher. Larnach, Buxton, Kepler and Celestino are set in the OF. Arraez, Polanco, Correa, and probably Urshela are set for the infield. So 10 of 13 spots are settled. That leaves 3 spots for Gordon, Garlick, and Miranda. Miranda has produced a triple slash of .260/.288/.520 the last 15 games. His last 7 game triple slash shows .346/.370/.769. He's a top prospect with a bright future coming off an amazing 2021 and starting to figure things out. Gordon hasn't had a great last 7 games. But his past 30 games has him at .266/.296/.404. He provides OK defense at 3 infield spots and good/great defense in LF/CF. He provides speed on the basepaths, occasional pop, and versatility. He keeps getting better, but his ceiling looks to be limited to super-utility. And there are a couple guys who have higher ceilings that may bump him come 2023, but we aren't there yet, and they haven't. And if you've watched him enough, you've seen him make some great defensive plays, some nice throws, some important hits here and there, and speed that Rocco should take better advantage of. He's out of options. His trade value probably isn't much as he's not a full time starter. But I guarantee he would be snapped up in a heartbeat by another club who wants the overall value he brings. Garlick is an average OF defensively, being only a tiny bit kind there. But he MASHES LF pitching, which is a surprising weakness of the Twins considering there are still some solid RH bats on hand. He's even had a couple good hits against RH this year. I think he's important and solid until someone better comes along. How do you cut the talented, versatile and still improving Gordon at this time? (*Steer and others could replace him 2023). How do you cut a RH bat that mashes LH pitching which we remain susceptible to. And how do you demote a top prospect like Miranda who is starting to figure it out at the ML level? Injuries and covid/health issues often make hard, temporary decisions moot. But as much as I am a fan and believer in Kirilloff being healthy and bashing for years to come, it just might be fine if he continues to mash at St Paul for a couple of weeks to be even more confident and zoned in before some injury/opportunity presents itself. If you were FORCED to make a move tomorrow, I think you'd have to send Miranda down since he has options. Thankfully, we don't have to make any decision today.

The bad: 1] Despite not being as sharp as he had been previously, I thought Smeltzer should have started the 5th. 2] I had hoped Duffey had settled in after his early season meltdown. He was throwing 93-95 today, showing a definite uptick in velocity that was previously missing. But he needs middle or long relief at this point. The good: Basically everything else! The team was short handed to due injury, covid illness and covid policy and still took 2 of 3 from a contender on their home field. And everyone contributed in the wins, including then pen, with the Duffey exception Sunday. The Twins are deep and resilient and keep finding ways to win, despite some frustrating losses. Not sure what else Cotton has to do to stick. He's looked really good. Here's hoping Moran keeps it up and is here to stay. Palacios is a pleasure to watch in the field. He's figured out how to hit again since coming back to the Twins, at least at the milb level, and I think he's going to stick with someone, even if it's not the Twins. It's been fun watching this team win and grow and seeing all the kids getting a chance and mostly all succeeding. The future is looking very bright. But we have a quality, contending team right now.

Since Larnach was drafted, I've always seen he and Kirilloff as largely the same player, projection and profile wise. Interestingly, they've come up through the system usually only separated by a spot or two on virtually all prospect lists, with various comments from those who make said lists that also compare both guys similarly. I'm not surprised by Larnach's defense as I've never heard anything worse than "average", with OK speed once he gets his frame moving, and a strong arm. I think both Larnach and AK are a big part of the Twins for the next 5-8yrs with good health. What's Larnach 's ceiling? The way the game has been altering the past few years and with MLB messing with the balls, I hesitate to project actual numbers. For various reasons, I've had the hunch Kirilloff would end up with a slightly better BA and OB with Larnach having a little more power and a slightly higher XB total per season. I have to say I think legitimate .270 BA at minimum, and pushing 60 XB hits per year.

Great news throughout the system and some great performances, but I was mostly focused on the pitching side of things. Enlow contuning to ramp up and improve is awesome. He looked to be taking that next step early in 2021 before his injury. I'm not so worried about great final numbers this year for him, just throwing hard, getting a feel for his pitches again, and getting ready for a strong 2023. Alcala throwing hard and pain free would be huge for the Twins. I think they've really missed him. I'm not saying they don't need to add someone to keep the pen strong and the team in contention, but what a boost a healthy Alacala is for depth and to lower some other guys down a notch or so. Been impressed by Hajjar's SO and the sudden lowering of BB totals the past couple of games. And I'm probably being way to nick-picky, but 81 pitches to get through 4 and 1/3 seems pretty high. I know it's his first season, lower grade umpiring can miss calls, errors can lead to additional pitches thrown, etc, but I'd sure like to see a better economical use of his pitches. I see future ML stud back end RP as a worst case scenario for him. A little more command, and time of course, I could easily see an innings eating mid to top of the rotation SP with his velocity and strong build.

I think your list is largely accurate, with good comments on each. I could argue a few placements, but that's really just nit-picking and pointless. But I wanted to comment on a few guys here. 1] Never understood all the questions about Lewis' defense. Ive seen enough in ST games, milb highlights, and his brief ML time to see a kid who is a great athlete who has the hands, range, arm, and pure athleticism to be at least a quality ML SS. If you can make the great plays, it's a matter of time and experience to make the routine plays more consistently. He's probably never going to be a Correa type defensively, but so few are. I think he's going to be very good, if not excellent, with his glove with a little more time. He's still so damn young. 2] Martin has too much natural ability for the bat to not catch up. Crazy the expectations some have placed on him. College to nothing in 2020 and then straight to AA in his pro debut. The kid needs and deserves a little time, not unreal expectations of reaching the majors in 2022. I believe SOME power WILL COME. Again, just too much talent to not expect it to come. But he doesn't have to be a slugger to be very valuable. How about 30+ doubles with some triples and double digit HR's along with AVG and OB and speed that provides SB? Agreed he's probably not a real SS, but could play 2B and 3B and, IMO, should work there but be transitioned to the OF. I see him as an outstanding defensive LF who can also play CF. I get so frustrated when I read comments that he just won't be a quality offensive player without 20+ HR power for being an OF. When was it decided LF had to be a questionable defensive performer with power? I see Martin as being a clone of Alex Gordon, with more speed and a little less power, perhaps. 3] Miranda is still young and developing. He was a high pick the FO liked and was just waiting for the bat to catch up. That started in 2021. He's a rookie who has struggled initially...as if that's never happened before...but was starting to hit much better before his brief demotion. I think the bat is going to be just fine, though it's a question when the bulb begins to burn brightly. See "Lewis" in regard to settling down defensively as just being more consistent. The ability is there to at least be solid. 4] I just can't get too down on Balazovic with his slow start. He's behind everyone with his late start. Everything is there to be very good. I'm betting by August, if not sooner, we're all very excited for him in 2023 and will forget about his rough start. 5] Miller/Rodriguez: I get being torn between these two. Miller has surpassed my expectations and plays a premium position. Crazy how good he's looked so far in both areas. Man, if some power comes, LOOK OUT! I just cant believe how good and disciplined Rodriguez looks, while still providing power and production. I wouldn't want to "rob" him of his discipline, but I think he really starts cranking when he sacrifices a little bit of that discipline to hack and use his inate power. 6] Canterino is one of the guys that I think you have too low. Maybe I'm just blindly optimistic, but I think he's a legitimate SP at this point. His stuff is crazy good and should continue to develop and play up as he gets time. Much is made about his wind-up. But Canterino has stated he's used it for years and feels comfortable with it. To my knowledge, he never had a concerning injury of any sort in college. The Twins only limited him in 2019 due to IP. His injury in 2021 didn't require any surgery, and happened after he missed 2020 like so many others. He's being brought along slowly this year, which I appreciate and applaud, and looking about as good as ever. At this point, I just don't understand calls to move him to the pen. Why? Desperation to help the parent club? No way, IMO. His stuff is just too damn good for a knee-jerk reaction. And I'm going to add Festa here as well. Drafted, he's very tall and lanky, almost Ober-like, with vast potential to work with. He's EXACTLY the kind of projectile college arm the Twins love. He's already been promoted once, and there are already calls that he could be fast-tracked to the ML as a pen piece. Again, why? Why the rush and insistence to take an arm with SP potential and push him to the pen? 7] SWR and Henriquez are exactly where they should be. A pair of 21-22yo who should maybe be in A ball. Tons of talent and potential. And if they make a sudden jump, so be it. Move them up. But I'm very happy if they just sit at Wichita all year and just grow and get better. 8] Your higher on Sands right now than I am, and I was previously optimistic. I was really encouraged by his 2021 and his first couple of starts for St Paul. Suddenly the wheels came off. He's driving me crazy. I've watched him pitch every game for the Twins, including the Detroit game tonight, and he is wild and hangs stuff, and then I see a couple great pitches and a couple great IP and I wonder what is wrong? Kaat was the color man tonight and he felt he was opening up too early and falling off toward 1st base too much. Could it be that simple? I see "stuff" and potential with Sands, but there is something missing. It may be confidence. It may be his follow through. Might be both. I think there is an arm to work with there, I'm just not sure what to do with it. 9] Steer and Julien, to me, are sort of a "package" . Steer MIGHT just claim a starting spot in the next year or so. I still believe Miranda is the future 3B. But if for some reason he doesn't take hold, Steer just might. I believe he's going to be a "Marwin" type who plays 4 spots well and provides some good offense. I suspect Julien is going to be similar, play almost every day but not be a "starter". He will play 3 INF spots, LF, and occasionally DH and be a "sparkplug" type of player. This is where a really nice player like Gordon gets pushed out. 10] Povich and Hajjar, is very interesting to me. You have a pair of top Big 10 pitchers who are so easily dismissed because of where they played, despite their success. Povich was drafted WAY higher than projected. Hajjar has the build and potential to be a SP and innings eater. Early results tell me Povich will be challenging for a rotation spot in 2024 and Hajjar will be a potentially dominate BP piece at the same time. GUILTY PLEASURE: There is SOMETHING about Raya since he was drafted that told me he was Berrios part 2. MISSED: I really thought Strotman was going to make a difference at some point this year. I just can't understand how far he's fallen off.

I think going the college route more often is a combination of factors, many of them already mentioned here. A top HS arm, much like a SS, (or a QB in football), tends to often be the best athlete on the team. So trying to project how well their stuff plays and develops against a higher level of player on pro ball, much less any physical development, is just harder to accurately project. It doesn't mean there aren't really good 18yo arms that you don't pick, and that don't turn out, they're just much more of a wild card to accurately project. College pitchers are at least a bit more physically developed. Many of them can/will still continue to fill out and gain strength, but it's easier to see a more finished body type. Additionally, they've had a higher level of competition and coaching to harness at least one non fastball pitch. What the Twins have been doing, IMO, is recognize what pro coaching and career concentration can do for those college pitchers. Even better mechanics, greater repetition, a little more physical development, velocity can jump, control can be smoothed out, and unlike a HS pitcher, you're looking at adding a pitch and polishing the rest, vs a HS pitcher where you're probably trying to often develop 2 pitches, much less polish them. Time will tell how successful they are going to be, but the early returns have been good so far, and I think optimism is warranted. I think Povich is a prime example. Decent length, but a rather lanky build, good control, at least one solid secondary offering. Now concentrating on his profession, he fills out physically a little more for velocity, and better, more polished mechanics add a tick or two as well. And those better mechanics make his secondary stuff, at least one pitch, more consistent. Now, again, you're working most on the 3rd or 4th pitch instead of working with the more blank canvass that a HS kid presents.

I 100% agree with every single comment regarding a young prospect being moved off their position...SS in this particular argument...too soon or to pay too much attention to BOTH milb error numbers or early ML error numbers. In the past few years, through debates of various players...a ton of Lewis debates to be sure...I've posted error totals for a NUMBER of HIGH QUALITY ML players who were great, All Star, and even HOF worthy, who posted high error totals before becoming the players they turned out to be. Are there exceptions? You bet! If you spend the time to look as I have you will some tremdous defensive players at SS...as well as 3B...who had low error numbers at every stop along the way, including at the ML level. But you would be surprised at what you would see if you dug a little and looked. But I don't want to digress too much here. Martin is a great athlete. Just being real, the Jay's, and now the Twins, said "why not" when looking at his abilities and potential. Since being drafted, this is his SECOND professional season and he's only a couple months in! Fanfare and top 100 projection lists hype can do a lot to skew perspective. There is no good reason to take a very talented athlete, so early in his career, and just say he can't develop and won't get better. Doesn't mean he will develop in to a future GG winner, but doesn't mean he can't be good/solid at the spot. HOWEVER, despite all that I've stated, I do believe some guys, no matter how talented and athletic they are, just don't "fit" at certain positions. For example, as amazing a talent and athlete as Buxton is, there are reasons he plays CF and not SS. For those old enough to remember, changing positions, Gary Gaetti was a pretty good athlete with a rocket arm but hands of stone. Well, those hands of stone got really soft after a few more years at the ML level and he became an excellent defender at the hot corner. Again, I've never believed that you take a prospect off their position too early because they may grow tremendously over a few years. And at worst, they may turn out better elsewhere but will have the versatility to cover a spot. Think Polanco and his transition. The FO, scouts, and milb coaches may see Martin still growing and having the ability to be a viable, solid SS. If that's the case, and they really believe that, then keep working him there, at least part of the time. Never know what you might get! But please, let all parties be honest. If the Twins really question his overall ability and instincts to stick there, then start to make the move. Martin reminds me so much of Alex Gordon, former Husker All American and top draft choice 3B with the Royals who, for whatever reason, couldn't transition his defense and offense together to the ML level. But he became a GG winner in LF, an All Star as I recall, a versatile offensive force, and a pain in the ass for the Twins for years. I believe Martin is going to the LF of the future. I believe he will play great defense, cover CF, maybe be able to cover 3B/2B as well if needed, and be a great hitter with contact and high OB% with speed. I don't know how much, or to what degree, but pop/power will come. (Larnach moves to RF eventually, FWIW). I just feel this is what is going to happen. And I think at least a partial position adjustment should start taking place.

My answer, for now, is a resounding no. People a whole lot smarter than me will eventually make the determination for Canterino as to whether or not he remains in the rotation or transitions eventually to the pen. And maybe that will be his ideal role. I have little doubt he'd be great in the pen. But I absolutely don't take one of the most electric arms in my system, who seems to have legitimate SP capabilities and projection and transition him at this time because he MIGHT be able to help the 2nd half of the year. There was belief for some time Alcala was going to be a RP. There have been bumps, but he's flashed, and finished 2021 looking awesome. Part of that was growing experience, and part was a 3rd pitch that was only decent, but helped him against LH hitters. I want to say it was a form of change, but not certain IIRC. (Man I hope he comes back healthy and ready to go in June)! Duran needed a 3rd pitch to remain a SP but also had the possibility of being a fine BP piece, with even better stuff than Alcala and a higher ceiling. Had he been 100% healthy in 2021 I wonder if he'd even be in the pen this year? But tremendous stuff, need and opportunity has placed him as perhaps the best arm in the entire pen for 2022. Ironically, it's maybe the development of his 3rd pitch, his power curve, that may be leading to his sudden rise and acclimation to his role. I can see a real argument for a return to the rotation at some point, but I think he's at where he's going to stay. Every single pitching prospect is different than every other pitching prospect. They grow and develop individually for a number of reasons. And it's really easy to predict EVERY pitching prospect to the pen. In fact, it seems at times, that virtually every profile or breakdown you read states a bullpen option for everyone. I don't recall if Canterino had any injuries while in college at Rice. But unless I'm mistaken, and I don't believe I am, his is not a case of multiple injuries. He was drafted in 2019 and had pitched an awful lot of innings in 2019, and his career. He was not hurt when drafted, just treated with kid gloves. Initially, the Twins reported he would report for instructional work, but might not throw in any games. They changed course and decided to give him a limited 25 IP. He then missed 2020. He was off to a great start in 2021 before having soreness and ended up shut down for the year, unfortunately, like many others, the Twins erring on the side of caution. Still only 24yo and off to a very good start this year, it would be grossly misguided, IMO, to do anything other than bring him along and stretch him out and nurture him as a SP. He might even reach AAA some time in the 2nd half. MAYBE, come the end of the year, he comes up in the pen to help. But there is no way I transition such a great arm this early when he has real potential as a SP.

And I agree with this take. Just looking at his 2022 numbers, recalling the milb reports, he's had more BB and HR than he should have considering his IP and his experience. It's lead to a huge ERA. But the hits and K per are good as well as his .217 BA against and 1.29 WHiP. Considering what he's done with the Twins the past couple of seasons, I'm optimistic he's going to be solid. I was pleased he came back and think he didn't make the roster out of ST had a lot to do with the 40 man and some younger arms they just wanted to keep. I do have to admit though, I remain surprised by others getting their shot, or second shots, vs Hamilton getting his first. It's not as though the guys they've brought up haven't shown OK with St Paul and didn't deserve a chance, but why not Hamilton? I can only surmise that they like him, think he has a future, but are afraid to play the 40 man/DFA game with him for fear he'd be claimed and so they are "nurturing" him along after all he's been through so that when he's eventually added to the 40 man, he might be ready to stay on it. I am hopeful, disappointed and confused by Moran. He just turned 25yo in April, missed 2020 like so many, so he isn't old. His FB and slider are OK, though nothing special. It's his change that is outstanding and allows his other pitches to play up. His AAA numbers this season are pretty mediocre, but the potential is there to be very good. And his 3 games earlier with the Twins this year were good. I'm really hoping this is the opportunity where he settles in and becomes a long standing member of the pen.

I almost selected "something else" simply because there were more than a couple good choices listed, and some not listed, such as Duran and Celestino having breakthroughs. So it was kind of hard to pick just one. Always the optimist, I actually thought the Twins would put 2021 behind them and have a winning season this year, and challenge for the playoffs. I selected Buston's BA at this point. Even if he was out or more banged up than he's been, etc, I never saw a slump that would take him that low. Granted, he's probably about ready to go on a tear and destroy the opposition and get that BA right back up again...hopefully starting today...but I'm still surprised by that number and his recent dip.

Arraez is absolutely one of my favorite Twins players and so happy none of the projected trade ideas with him the past offseason happened. I don't think it's hubris at all to say he's the best pure "hitter" that I've seen in 20yrs since Boggs and Gwynn were playing. History shows us the value of the HR in regard to scoring. Power, specifically HR power, WINS. But BANKING on HR rather exclusively doesn't always work due to feast or famine, plus, too many solo HR aren't always a good thing. But team Power and HR remain an important part of the game. However, in good baseball and good teams that WIN, your offense still need OB% and guys who can just HIT once in a while instead of only looking dead set for the HR. The hood news is we've actually seen the Twins just "hit" better in 2022, and Kepler is a prime example. I believe Lewis, when back up, will hit. Larnach, IMO, will hit. So will AK if and when he gets healthy. Just a short list/example. And then you have Arraez. One of the best pure hit and OB guys in baseball. And he's clutch! His power may still develop to some degree, but he never has to be a thumper to have value. I think he will hit a few more doubles and a few more HR as he matures, but that will only make him even more valuable as it happens. (His hard work to shed some bad weight and add good weight this past offseason will keep his knees and body more healthy, as well as potentially lead to a little more pop/power). I believe his defensive shortcomings have been greatly exaggerated. He pretty much learned 3B and LF at 22yo AFTER reaching the ML. Same with his learning 1B on the fly this year. And while I've seen mistakes and errors, again, his general defense is solid at both 2B and 3B, and I've been very pleased how well he's picked up and adapted to 1B. And if you want to break him down or apart for his defense, go ahead. I know what my eye test has seen 3+ years and the good outweighs any bad, IMO. You can make fun, if you want, but the term "gamer" used to be a compliment and not a ufemism to be made fun of because a manager used it too often. Arraez is a tremendous hitter, a young and important and versatile piece for the Twins now, and over the next few seasons as a dangerous presence in the lineup. And yep, the guy is a "gamer"!