DocBauer

So I called it?

Long as he doesn't over run the base again with all his speed, with 2 outs, do you run Gordon here? I think I would.

Hey gang, stopping in late to say howdy. Great for Smeltzer. Miranda will be fine! Slow start to 2022, called up still getting his groove on, should have been up late in 2021 to get ready for 2022, but will be just fine eventually. Might need a reboot at St Paul, but he'll be fine. Someone should have told Kepler Bauer was pitching and not Bieber. Game would be a blowout at this point.

No doubt Smeltzer's best role is as a long/mid bullpen arm. He was surprisingly solid as a backend arm in 2019. He had a bad disc in his neck that lead to loss of feeling in his left hand in 2021 and ruined his season. If I'm not mistaken, he made a comment that "something" popped up in 2020 from his previous cancer battle that affected his 2020. Sorry if I'm not recalling 100%. He had a healthy and quality ST this year. He's been pretty solid for St Paul thus far in 2022. He's about 8th on the current depth chart, but injuries happen and sometimes you have to dig that deep, even if it's one game. But I don't think he's exactly a sacrificial lamb in this game. The Twins need Thielbar to keep doing what he's been doing the past few seasons, and so far this season, for as long as he can. The Twins need Moran to establish himself ASAP for 2022 and beyond. There are a handful of LH arms coming up that are "interesting", and they need at least one to establish themselves as a quality BP piece to join Moran. But Smeltzer has a chance to stick for a season or two as a mid/long guy. With Coloumbe out for now, tonight could be huge for him going forward. Time may be running out for him.

Friday night's implosion after being sent out after such a long wait notwithstanding, I've been impressed with Jax in this new role as well as his "new" slider and higher velocity FB. I know different analytics can be used in different ways to break down a pitcher for both good and bad. But despite some pretty bad final numbers in 2021 as a SP, Jax was pretty good for 3 IP, or once through the order. I don't know if he can succeed, generally, as a 3 inning, 59 pitch pitcher or not. Maybe. My hunch though is he's best for 1-2 innings cranking up that FB to 94-95 and using that impressive new slider. He seems to have the temperament to handle a BP role. He's always had pretty good control. And he is pretty bright, meaning he can adapt and "figure things out" as he goes along. There is potential there as a possible setup man, but I think he's a SO 1-2 IP 5th to 7th innings guy. And there is real value in that. I sure wish we were talking about Duran, Jax, AND a healthy Alcala.

I don't think anyone has ever stated he's a 4th OF and that's all. I just think it's been accepted as being his floor and his role for now. I mean, healthy, pretty sure Kepler, Buxton and Kirilloff/Larnach will be the primary starting OF. I am so surprised this kid has come on as strong as he has. And not because of his inauspicious debut last year, but just being as young as he is and a half year at AAA...even though he looked good...I just figured he'd need a little more time to develop before settling in to a ML role. It's a little hard to gain experience and confidence sitting on the bench after all. But he's responded wonderfully. The defense is there, and his milb numbers suggest a solid bat and OB. The question as to his future as a starter, IMO, is how much pop/power does he really have? And while he has speed, is it transferable to SB? Answers to these questions will determine if he's eventually a starter or not. A good balance of everything but nothing exceeding "norms" would keep him as an outstanding and versatile 4th OF.

Lewis is one of the few healthy bodies on the 40 man. He's talented enough to play about anywhere and not embarrass himself. So there is a chance he sticks around out of necessity for a while. But if the roster gets back to ful strength over the next week, he absolutely should be back in St Paul playing ever day at SS. He will take this ML experience, use it, grow from it, and be all the better for it. Ditto for Miranda IF he's sent down. Right now I'm just not concerned with his BA. He's still a rookie with only 39 ML AB. A pair of good days and he's back to hitting .250 or better in such a SSS. Immediate, high quality hitting success doesn't often happen just 2 weeks time.

Obviously disappointed in losing all 3 games. I would have been OK with some sort of split. But 3 losses against a very good team even at home, doesn't spell doom and gloom going forward. It's baseball. Stuff happens. We weren't supposed to win in Tampa, remember? I didn't get to watch today, still, a few personal thoughts: 1] Ryan wasn't as sharp in the opener as he has been. Personally, while it was atrocious, I felt he got squeezed a lot by the ump. Disappointed in Winder today, but I have faith in him and a rebound. Bad games happen even for seasoned pitchers. You're going to, obviously, have a few bumps in the road here and there with rookie/young pitchers. 2] More disappointed in Archer Wednesday night. He just seemed tight or pressing and seemed to overthrow or miss constantly. I don't know if it was the weather or just a very bad day. I've been surprised and encouraged before that game and how the Twins have been handling him. But he's got to rebound next start in a big way. 3]I know we're playing a little short and banged up at the moment, but the offense was starting to click. And I know the Astros are a quality team with some good arms, but the offense has suddenly disappeared the past 6 games. Come on guys! 4] Arraez could fall out of bed every day and hit .300. He's an important part of this team and I'm glad he's still with us.. 5] Gordon's draft status will probably always mark him as some sort of "disappointment" no matter his career going forward. But he's starting to hit. His speed is a valuable asset. He can cover 6 positions at least "comfortably" defensively. That catch in CF today was OUTSTANDING and I just marvel at how quickly he has adapted to the OF, on the fly, pun intended, since being thrown out there in 2021. 6] In baseball, there is always tomorrow and the next series. Time to move on, get back in the saddle, and get back in the WIN column starting tomorrow. LET'S GO TWINS!

There is a real chance he could play a big role for the Twins the last couple of months of the season. Even with good health for the current staff, IP could be a factor. With no setbacks, Balazovic could be a real factor come August/September after 2 1/2 months to ramp up and iron a few things out.

I could have easily liked a dozen or more comments here, but didn't simply due to time, (hurrying to get caught up), and because I agree with both sides here. To Eris's point, unless I am mistaken, a sprain or tear of a ligament is the same thing. That's what a sprain is, IIRC. But any sprain/tear can be minor to major, meaning a complete tear. Minor tears/sprains can heal through therapy and time. Sometimes they never get worse. Sometimes they tear all the way. It would appear the Twins believed Paddack's risk was worthwhile. And I agree that IF he's hurt more seriously and needs surgery, it doesn't mean he can't be part of this rotation in '23-24 and potentially beyond. I remain mixed on the trade, to be honest. I applaud a number of the moves made for this year, and also applaud the FO for their belief in their young talent, pitching in this case, to be precise: Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran, Jax, and others that may yet make a mark before the year is done. The Archer move looks very smart and could pay huge dividends! I remain so-so on Bundy until I see how he responds. Any way you slice it, gaining a young SP with tons of potential, a decent BP arm, and an interesting prospect for a RP is a smart move at the end of the day. But while I generally like how this team was built, I still maintain a missed opportunity is the entire reason we're having this discussion to begin with. A $14-15M arm signed before the lockout would have helped stabilized the rotation, without breaking the bank, and have allowed the Twins to keep Rogers and the Paddack trade wouldn't have even been necessary. And I'm NOT blasting the FO. But if we're going to applaud moves and development, it's OK and fair if we also point out mistakes or missed opportunity. So, again, I'm split on the trade. It just wasn't a BAD trade. But it's a trade I feel didn't have to be made. We still have rotation depth, and more on the way. Paddack doesn't make or break the season, though things look better if he can rest and work and come back. But I don't think we're in desperation mode if he's out.

So Sano to the 60 day to make room for one of Cotton or Contreras. But who's gone to make room for the second? Godoy?

I agree "disappointment" is probably the word that best describes Sano's career, at least to this point for sure. But he's not a bust. How many top 100 prospects and high draft choices have failed to reach the ML level or wash out quickly with abysmal results? So the fact that he has played a "decent" 3B/1B and produced the OPS he has for his career might be disappointing for all that was anticipated/hoped for, but he's not a bust. I cant' explain his inability to be better than he has been, though I do agree he long ago seemed to disregard any attempt to just put the bat on the ball and let his natural strength do the work for him. I can't explain his slow starts every year. I do know that if you can live with him providing little value through mid May to the 1st of June, you get a POWERFUL and DANGEROUS hitter for the rest of the season that will carry your team for a week or two at a time even. And his final numbers will be very solid, though I'd still have a hard time batting him higher than 5th. But if you have a team that wants to challenge for titles, and has as much young talent arriving as the Twins have now, can you afford a streaky hitter who all but disappears the first month and a half to two months of the season? I've never been a hater, often a defender, of Sano. And while he will probably still play and contribute before the season is over, it's just time for both parties to move on after 2022. And that's disappointing.

Agreed it's way too early to look too closely at this topic. HOWEVER...to be fair, it's not an unreasonable question to be asked. And to me, any answer depends on health. And I don't mean the standard caveat of "well if this guy or that one suddenly gets injured what do we do?" I mean, I see a pair of concerns. 1} RHRP that we can use in a high leverage situation, preferably someone who's been there before and can be counted on. 2} A RH bat with pop/power to mitigate LHP. An OF might be preferred due to Larnach, Kepler and AK all being LH. And Miranda and Urshela help, but are INF. COUNTER: 1} If Alcala comes back healthy and Duran and Jax keep doing what they're doing, along with Lewis and Duffey suddenly looking more like his old, reliable self, is there still a need? Alcala's injury is a big question mark IMO. 2} What if Garlick comes back healthy and continues to hit like he was before his injury? He hit well against LHP in 2021 before getting hurt and losing the rest of the year. Will 2022 be a repeat or will he come back and stay productive? He doesn't have a long and storied ML career, but he's mature, has put up good numbers at the milb level, and seems to have begun a sort of limited "breakthrough" with the Twins as a LHP masher. These are the 2 areas I'm still worried about, as I was coming out of ST. But there's at least a chance the answer might already be on the 40 man with health.

I guess my answer is...yes...but not completely. I have been generally impressed with his defense, especially so in the OF where he never played until being tossed out there in desperation last year. Last season, he hit, then he didn't, then he hit again. The speed and SB ability is real. Despite his thin frame, the ball jumps once in a while and he has more pop than it looks like he should. When I read something like this OP, I'm not only reminded yet again of his consistent "second year" at a level progress, but just how good he was in 2018 at AA, and in 2019 at AAA, his "second year" there. In fact, had he not been injured, it's almost a certainty, IMO, that he would have been promoted instead of Arraez. I say "not completely" as I've been a little disappointed in him here in 2022, though I admit the SSS at this point. I really expected him to raise all his numbers to more or less average. And he might still. But that's why my answer is in 2 parts. (Note* While never a large dude, I think he's still lost weight and strength over the previous 2 ill/hurt years that has cost him. I'd really like to see him a good 12-15lbs heavier)

The key to any pitcher is to throw off a batter's timing, throw off his vision plain, and to keep him guessing in general. Columbe does all of that by changing speeds and mixing pitches and locations. And I think he's actually pretty "real" considering how he's looked, and the solid job he did last year. But he is not high leverage. He's a middle guy to fill and IP or 2. Eventually, he'll probably get timed up/figured out and begin to lose effectiveness. I do think it's just a matter of time until Moran is up for good and replaces him. But then again, a 3rd LH in the pen isn't a bad thing either.

Not only has Duran been pretty amazing, but so has Jax. And then Duffey and Thielbar have suddenly turned it around. Even with Pagan getting us on the edge of our seats lately, he's gotten the job done. I still feel the pen is probably one good, proven arm away from continued success. Other than that, my only concern is a Ying/Yang karma regarding injuries. We've had a bunch so far, but only Alacala and Sano appear long term at this point. C4 and Larnach back soon, Ober back soon, Arraez and Bundy off the covid list and Paddack OK, I'll breath a huge sigh of relief. But I'll breath even a little easier if AK's wrist feels good and he starts to hit again like he's capable of.

Despite the 2nd year option, I believe he was really signed for depth, and to be a place holder. If he does better than that and earns his option being picked up, it's a bonus for the Twins. Even in a good, healthy season you will need 7-9 SP over the course of a season, and the Twins have that right now. Bundy is a part of that, for the moment. In addition to injuries, there is a real innings concern this year due to young arms as well as Archer's comeback. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple "tired arm" IR stays here and there. Bundy had a really bad game. Then he had another in which he was probably ill, and the defense had a lousy game behind him, offering no favors. The game could have been very different with better play. You absolutely give him a few more starts to see what you really have. He's not the pitcher he was in his first 3 starts, and I think we all knew that. But I don't think he's as bad as his past 2 appearances either. I can't say exactly how many starts he gets because there are too many variables. But the good news is depth and upcoming depth will allow the Twins to walk away if necessary, unlike last year when they almost had no choice.

Buxton was Buck! Winder was again all we hoped for. In fact, he's been better than I expected as a rookie. He's going nowhere except his next turn in the rotation. Is Duffey the pitching version of Sano? Like last season, he suddenly seems to know how to get outs. Reminiscent of early 2021. Awesome first HR for Miranda! He looks good early, only the smallest of "deer in the lights" look, which might have been mitigated with a September fall up last season. But whatever. He will be at 3B soon, and for years to come. He's doing just fine right now with more to come. I can't wait for AK to be healthy and ready to go and be a part of the future of this team. But in the meantime, let's give a shout out to Larnach and how quickly he has adapted. And has Kepler FINALLLY become the player we hoped for? I'll take 2/3 . Lewis was a highlight. Saw at least one great defensive play and got his first ML hit in his first ML game. What's not to like right now?

To the OP, which was great, 2 points: 1] REAL is just too early after a month due to SSS, as well as weather. The batters will heat up with the weather. But then again, arms will get warm and loose as well. So the SSS works both ways. 2] Archer and Winder should have been included So let's get to the heart of the matter RYAN: He might have a rough patch here and there, but most pitchers do. Everything about him screams REAL, whether that means potential ACE or just very good top of the rotation SP is TBD. But he's good/very good and potentiallyspecial GRAY: He is a bona-fide top of the rotation SP with a quality history. I've been so impressed with his leadership thus far. I absolutely love how he's taken the lead with other pitchers to "force" them to watch one another in bullpens and the such to communicate and learn with one another. He and Ryan will, anchor this rotation all year long. OBER: He's exceeded all expectations after putting up video game numbers, despite injuries, in his milb career. He had a very good 2021 and adapted his stuff during the season. He doesn't have anything special, but he's just good overall and still learning. I don't know how good he can still be, meaning his ceiling, but he can be a quality part of this rotation for years to come. I feel he's downgraded by some only due to IP. But I think the staff has been brilliant in slowly building up his arm in 2021 and this year as well BUNDY: He had a really bad game but hung in for 6 IP to take one for the team. Then the Orioles game happened and I'm not sure how much blame you can put on him. For maybe the second time all year, the defense stunk. He didn't throw all that bad. And a pair of games, with defensive miscues, doesn't define him. He could easily be just as good as he was previously his first few starts. But to be honest, even IF he proves to be only OK going forward...NOT saying that will be the case...being a solid guy for half a season while others take charge wouldn't be a bad thing. But I'm not doubting him after one bad performance and a bad team play game. PADDACK: Did the Twins fleece the Padres? This kid has STUFF and potential STUFF. But he is an enigma. He had the great rookie season and then slipped. But he's got control, velocity, a great change, and suddenly a great curve. But for some reason, he couldn't put it all together in SD. The FO has liked him for years. Now they have him. Suddenly all the pitches are starting to work? Is this another example of our FO and staff, Johnson and others, making things happen? I still hate losing Rogers, but you don't gain if you don't give at times. Time will tell, but we might have burned the Pad's on this one. ARCHER: I have been blown away by Archer's health and stuff and looking like his old self. Kudos to the FO for taking a shot and ALL doctors, therapists and instructors who Archer worked with to get him healthy again. The guy is throwing as well or better than he ever has. This is the kind of "come back" story that happens every season or so. The Twins are treating him much like Canterino, baby steps to build up the arm for IP with a potentially great outcome. The difference is about 8yrs. Canterino is being nurtured, rightfully so, as a SP with a future in that role. Archer is being re-established as a MLB SP. This easing in could pay major dividends before 2022 is done. Let him play up and build up his arm and see what he can do. BUT...I could also see him take a different route and transition at 33y to take all of his health and stuff to be an outstanding RP. I wouldn't do that NOW. BUT as the next few months play out, and if for some reason he just can't go more than 4 or so IP, I think it's worth looking at. WINDER: Despite his early results coming in as a long reliever, when push came to shove, I thought he might go down to St Paul when the roster shrunk, because he had options. The I heard the FO never intended to send him down. The I saw a couple outstanding starts. And injuries and stuff happens to make room. But I think it's clear now Winder is going nowhere. Everyone healthy and ready to go, SOMEONE, not Winder, is going to the pen. Depth is amazing! But you don't sacrifice the future for ego. And these thing always seem to work out. .

Kirilloff played a lot of CF in HS but was projected to being a corner OF with growth, even though he continued to play some CF when the Twins drafted him. He lost a season due to TJ surgery early on, and while I never heard that he lost anything from his throwing, Larnach was reputed to having OK defense but a strong arm when drafted. When both were in the lineup in 2021, the Twins usually placed Larnach in RF and Kirilloff in LF. Now, that could be Larnach having the better arm, or it could be Kirilloff having a little better speed to cover the larger expanse of LF. Both are reputed to have decent to good arms and OK defense throughout their drafting and milb reports. Pay no attention to "can't play the OF" reports. They are both at least average in the OF. AK just has a gift to play a really good 1B.

I've been critical of some of the moves the FO made this off-season, or more to the point, some moves they DIDN'T make this off-season when I felt opportunity was in their favor. And I think that's only fair. If I'm going to be supportive of them, as I have mostly been, I think it's fair to me/us to be critical as well when we see things we either don't like or don't understand. I'd like to think most of us, myself included, are fairly intelligent in our opinions and critiques, But I've always maintained that being an amateur GM doesn't allow me/us all the perspective and information or perspective that those in charge have. And I stand by a few complaints/issues I initially had as a semi-intellegent fan, even though I stated I liked a lot of things about this team. But I have to tip my cap to the FO for what they have done thus far. I know it's a long season, but just about everything they've done thus far has been SMART. I can't help but break down a few points as discussed here. 1] The rotation has been crazy good, even with limited IP. Including Bundy's bad Friday, the rotation has what, one or two games that could actually be called "bad"? Can Bundy keep it up? He's never been the ML SP prospect hopes held in store after early injuries, but he's flashed good for some bad teams, and even flashed greatness in 2020 and part of 2021. Has he learned, grown, and been influenced by Johnson and the Twins to "level out" his abilities and just be a solid, quality SP yet again? Early results say yes. But what if it's a mirage for only part of a season? (NOT saying it is!). Then he buys time at the WORST. Archer has been a find! And credit to HIM and his handlers to get healthy and prepared as much as the Twins for taking a shot. He looks as good as he did in his heyday and only needs to continue to ramp up IP over the next few appearances. Paddack has me wondering what is going on in San Diego. Or, again, more to the point, how many kudos do we give to the FO, Johnson, and the rest of the staff to just be better/smarter to see talent and potential and work with it for the best outcome? Because the early returns are very encouraging. Ober has looked as good as last year before his groin issue. Hopefully he's back soon. Winder has looked good out of the pen and then had a tremendous 1st ML start today. Oh, BTW, Ryan looks like one of the top SP in the league so far. What in the world happened to early reports he was FB heavy and deceptive but his secondary stuff was in question? I'm NOT going to anoint him to some title this early in his career, but he's throwing 4 pitches consistently and getting results. Maybe the FO and staff are smarter than we thought? 2] I felt the offense had a chance to be very good. There were question marks to be sure. I was most concerned about Jeffers, Sanchez, Urshela and AK, but had hope for ALL 4. Jeffers has been flashing big time and getting in a groove. All I asked for in regard to Sanchez was to actually improve defensively as he claimed to be working on while just hitting .225-.235 with his customary power and .300 OB. Well, he's done that, if not better. Change of scenery? I never realized how good of a glove Urshela had. I can't wait for Miranda to be part of our future! But now I'm looking at how Urshela fits even with Miranda for depth and roster flexibility. AK, IMO, is huge to the future of the lineup as a fixture at 1B, who can still play a solid OF, and be a high quality bat in the middle of the order. I've also believed Larnach could be an important bat but honestly didn't expect him to look this good this soon after he tailed off last season and then lost the rest of 2021 due to injury. He looks like he's ready to stay, so I'm uncertain about AK, when ready, and how the roster looks going forward. And that's a GOOD kind of "trouble" to have to deal with. But I HAVE to make a special note about Kepler. What is happening with him? He's always been an enigma despite his talent. He's a great RF and good CF who has a good eye and sweet swing who has just never been better than "good" other than 2019. A couple of seasons, milb and MLB, he hit LHP, but other years he just flaild against them. I used to argue he was at least a full year behind other prospects, despite his results, due to his introduction to baseball coming from Germany. But he kept climbing and producing and then 2019 happened. And then he suddenly regressed. Suddenly, now, fully healthy and 29yo, has time, experience, and coaching suddenly taken hold? He's suddenly hitting LH again, and even hitting the ball the other way. Are we seeing a final maturation of Kepler? Man I sure hope so! 3] I understand and yet hate the Twins approach to building a bullpen. For the most part, they've been successful. But at some point, you HAVE to have the arms you can count on. And right now, this is the ONE part of this team and it's success that concerns me. Losing Alcala really hurts. Lewis has been a great addition. Duran looks like a potential stud and difference maker. Pagan has the ability and proven results to be a solid piece, despite a bad outing recently. But right now, despite a strong April and good start to the season, and some good games, we are still "sorting out" the pen. Duffey and Thielbar have the stuff and experience to rebound and be part of a playoff team. But they better figure it out soon. Rosters are going to be reduced soon. And unless something changes, there are a couple of guys at AAA that may force the FO to make a change. Because right now, despite "decent" BP production with a winning record, the BP is the one potential weakness of what could be a legitimate playoff team.

Thanks! Can't believe I missed this. Damn cold! So he gets well in warmth and sunshine, gets a few milb AB, and comes up as the weather turns ready to rake? I like the way you think!

Ober's not going anywhere if healthy. Being a pragmatist, Ober is still young/inexperienced at the ML level. It's still possible he hits a rough patch and needs a re-set at St Paul at some point. (Though I doubt it). As much as I like Winder and believe he's part of the future and is ready now, Ober isn't going anywhere. He's going to be in the rotation for the next several years. He's good.

Winder looked outstanding. His stuff Plays, but his composure and approach really catches my eye. Really, EVERYONE is starting to hit and contribute, and not just bombas. And even though Polanco has been a little late to the table, a stat today showed he has been hitting .280 with 7/8RBI with RISP despite his slow start. This is the offense I expected, with the exception of Larnach in AK's spot. Kudos to Rocco, IMO, for having faith/patience and not giving Sands a quick hook. It would be understandable, despite the lead, to do so considering facing a good team on the road and not wanting to take any chances. But once Sands got that first K he really settled down. He flashed the stuff that makes him a top 20 prospect and finished strong.

Can't believe it, but I was very "out of it" all week trying to work with a really bad cold bug, what happened to Sano? I completely missed it somehow.