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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Guardians 5, Twins 3: We've Seen This Ending Before
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To add to this, Rocco stated early in the season Winder was one of their best arms and wasn't going anywhere. Unfortunately, injury happened. He was brought up due to the double header. He's "unusable" for a couple of days and had to be sent down by rule. Unless they are determined to stretch him out further...which I doubt...he's probably up in a couple of days.- 103 replies
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- jose miranda
- tyler duffey
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Minnesota’s Return for Berrios Continues to Look Better
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm sure I'll get pushback on my opinion, but I largely agree with Ted on this one. And I'm NOT referring to Berrios. He's gone, that ship has sailed, and being a fan of his I hope he rights himself and gets untracked. Everyone, myself included, is tantalized and optimistic by a very talented prospect and really wish we would see those top prospects just fly through the system and make an impact in just a few short years. But, I'm sorry, development and readiness are part of a process. SWR is only 21yrs old and is at AA looking at least solid, if not good, overall. He didn't pitch in 2020 and had his 2021 weirdly curtailed with milb, Olympics, then some milb again at 20yrs old. Just how ready should he be to make a ML impact? As far as Martin goes, I'd like to make a correction from the OP that he was a SS. Unless I am simply mis-remembering, he played very, very little SS in college. It was the Jay's who moved him there to see and the Twins followed initial hopes. He's a 2B/3B with all the skills to be a fine OF...probably LF and can at least cover CF decently. The Twins have stated as much. And sorry, I don't care how good his college career was, or his draft status, he also missed all of 2020 after being drafted, was put at a mostly foreign position, and then put straight to AA after missing an entire season post college. Again, what was expected of him? No insult intended to anyone, but I found thoughts of him arriving in 2022 as pure fantasy fueld by hype and prospect status. It's OK for the Twins to just admit that despite being a very talented athlete, he's just not a SS! Let him continue to play some 2B and 3B, positions he's far more experienced and comfortable at to increase his versatility for the future, but otherwise, stick him in the OF and pretty much keep him there. Time, work, adjustments, natural ability, and far less pressure, he'll probably start to take off. Highheat referenced Martin as being a potential comp to Whit Merrifield. And I actually think that is, potentially, a very accurate evaluation. And I'd be crazy happy if that holds true. But I've always seen him as a comp to another Royal, former Husker Alex Gordon. (Go Big Red. Sorry, couldn't help myself). Gordon was an All American and top draft pick 3B who could pretty much do it all. For some reason I still don't understand or comprehend, he apparently couldn't "do it all" at 3B for KC so they moved him to the OF. I see Martin as another Gordon, a stud LF with maybe a little more speed, and able to cover CF at times. He should develop his power and the hit tool will improve. When you have that great of an OB tool, you know the zone. It's just learning to balance patience vs aggressiveness better. He's got everything to be very, very good in all phases of the game. Who cares if he isn't some monster 30HR basher. What if he never turns out to be a consistent 20HR performer? (Though I still think that's possible). How about a great AVG, keep his OB ability, stroke a bunch of doubles, steal bases, and play a great LF with the ability to help in CF. Wouldn't that make him a great ballplayer? Two very, very talented young prospects with a world of talent still developing at AA ball after missing an entire season and being pushed a good level above what "usually" happens in the normal course of development. Neither achieving greatness yet, but neither stinking. If hopeful impatience is a "thing" , then these kids are underperforming at this point. If hopeful patience is reality, each of these kids could explode over the next 12-18 months.- 69 replies
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- jose berrios
- austin martin
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Guardians 5, Twins 3: We've Seen This Ending Before
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm late, so anything I post is probably on deaf and frustrated ears. But it will make me feel better to vent a bit, lol. I liked Thielbar and still do. Three bad games have skewed his ERA and impressions, but he's been good otherwise. I had real hopes that Alcala, Duran, and Jax would help and maybe turn in to something good. I wasn't sure Moran was ready, but was crossing fingers foe him come the second hald. Two have done great, one is out, and we can only hope he will make a difference before the year is out, and Moran has actually pitched better for the Twins than the Saints. Having Minaya and Coulombe back on milb deals was gravy and depth. So I had hopes. But what was really needed was another quality, proven, dependable arm to join Rogers. They didn't get one, and then traded Rogers. And I fully understand the "value" of the trade, but still wouldn't have done it. The sacrifice for 2022 was too great. As someone who generally supports the FO, I believe they blew the assembly of the pen for this year. As to Rocco, he's a bit hamstrung by what he has. But I can argue his usage. Against Cleveland on Wednesday, despite it being a close game, I would have used Pagan before Jax. I understand "what if he stinks and the game gets away from us"? But I would have used him in a lower level situation and trust my lineup to do what they did. It would have saved Jax and Duran for an inning later. The same principal applies to the two blown games last week. Hope someone like Pagan can hold it together in a middle inning with less pressure. I know that's not always the right way to approach things, but with the pen the way it is right now, it's the way I would have gone. I think Winder's up in the next couple of days. I hope Megill is back, because at least he was looking decent. Thornburg is nothing special. But he's got experience and has had a decent career. He's pitched OK in his brief Twins tenure. But to sit him for a week and not let him pitch...letting Pagan implode over and over again in high pressure situations....I'm not sure what anyone could/should expect after he had to pick splinters out of his backside. And if you distrust him that much, then why is on the roster vs IDK...anyone else? Blows my mind to think a couple of OK journeymen in Minaya and a healthy Coulombe in the pen these past 7-8 days might have given us another 2-5 wins. (Heavy sigh)- 103 replies
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- jose miranda
- tyler duffey
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I also like Prielipp better than Rooker, partially because he's LH, as I have love to have one of your top rotation arms being LH. (Shades of Viola and Santana). They are quite possibly the hardest thing to find. And while I have no knowledge as to Rooker's medical, I still find it alarming the Mets, with all their financial resources, balked at signing him. And while it may be a foolish arguement, Prielipp has already undergone surgery. So if he's looking good, you've sort of dodged that bullet already. I also am not in favor of drafting HS RH pitching early. And it seems teams have begun to, generally, push those guys down the board unless they are really elite. Petty was a bit of a gift for the Twins at 26 last year. Five years ago, he's probably in the early to mid teens. But when you have a pair of HS arms like Lesko and Porter with a pair of pitches already 60-70, man, it's hard not to be tempted by "what could be". I think teams have to at least give pause in regard to risk/reward with those two I still think the Twins follow current MO and select a position player. But I really don't want a position less bat again, or a "toolsy" player who doesn't already exhibit a solid "hit" tool.
- 18 replies
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- kumar rocker
- dylan lesko
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Here is where it gets cloudy, and perhaps a little more interesting. Philosophically speaking, the FO is prone to position players/bats early as they feel the cream of the crop is a shallow pool, whereas there are many more arms capable of progression and improvement later on. Also, while this FO is not adverse to chances, they do seem adverse to big risk. While we're talking 2 very different FO's, they've selected a HS pitcher only 6 times in this century. But you have 2 awfully good ones in this class. Are they good enough for "risk" at #8? Could a healthy Lesko really be the #1 player available? Can you afford NOT to take hum, if you're the Twins or anyone else? Prielipp is very tempting post surgery, and Rocker might be even better. But is Rocker an injury just waiting to happen? I think the Twins follow normal MO and ger the very best position player they can. But I just have to wonder if this is the year they really surprise and take the big risk for a potentially big reward.
- 18 replies
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- kumar rocker
- dylan lesko
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Unfortunately, repeating comments I made a few weeks ago, there is this baseline belief he was seeking a 10yr deal. Was that because someone else got one? Was this his idea? Regardless, even if that was a benchmark, he's playing this year at $35M so we're talking about a 9yr deal now, theoretically. The world went FA SS crazy last year for everyone but Correa. Why? Not because he's not an outstanding player surely. Only one team was willing to go 10yrs, and they did, and for someone else. So this while 8-9-10 year debate may just be a moot point. I think the Twins would go 7yrs. But I dont know they could still afford those last 2-3yrs unless they front loaded the contract. They can afford to do that while maintaining greater flexibility down the road. I just done see it coming together. But I never saw this deal happening either. Were i a betting man, I'd bet Steer/Palacios/Gordon to begin 2023 and the question is if a 1yr place holder is brought in.
- 37 replies
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- carlos correa
- royce lewis
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6 Hitters the Twins Could Target in the 2022 MLB Draft
DocBauer replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
High 5er to Dman for stealing my exact thoughts. Great post! If the stars line up just right, Collier or Parada for me and I'm very happy. Assuming those 2 are gone, everything about Neto just scream "pick me". He just seems to have a great balance in all areas athleticly. Not going to be disappointed in Susac as a nice consolation prize for missing out on Parada, and I've come around a bit on Berry. I don't like a 1B that high, but if he reaches projections, he could be an All Star hammer for years to come. That's worth a #8 selection, 1B or not.- 20 replies
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- zach neto
- jacob berry
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Sooo many thoughts. But will have to bullet point them. 1] Every inning matters, as does every mistake or lost opportunity or grandeous moment. Game 1 was not lost by a lost fly ball in the sun. Crap happens for the other team as well as our team. And I absolutely don't mean to pile on, but let's face it, Pagan didn't perform yet again. Seriously, he's got a live arm. Does he have an options left? I doubt it. But if he does, he needs some kind of re-set because a live arm who can't perform is someone who can't perform. I'd rather give his innings to ANYONE ELSE in the system who also has a "live arm" who might perform and grow given a chance. 2] Smeltzer again performed. Do we finally dismiss SSS and just recognize that he's a solid #4-5 SP at this point? 3] Winder was OK the first couple innings and then outstanding. Rocco stated late April, early May that Winder was one of their best arms and was going to stick around. And he did. And he performed. Then he got hurt. And, IMO, there was a bunch of BS about service time as he was sent down to St Paul after his IL stint. I don't understand all the parameters of service time and promotions, but I think it was clear they wanted him 100% healthy and stretched out for today and going forward. I believe he's 100% in the Twins plans going forward, even if he has to be temporarily sent back to St Paul. 4] I'm just not going to post numbers or get in to some extended debate about adding a SP at this point. But a healthy Gray is a stud. So is a healthy Ryan. Ober is out, unfortunately, but he was throwing as well or better than 2021 before his groin injury. Archer keeps improving. Bundy was great, stunk pre and post covid, and has suddenly turned in his best couple of games recently. Then you have Smeltzer just "performing" beyond most expectations. And then Winder comes back with a super impressive outing today. Is the rotation an issue? I say no. 5] I appreciate Winder being pulled after 6 IP today. Don't push him if you don't have to his first game back. And I MIGHT argue letting Duffey pitch an extra inning on only 12 pitches. If there is ANY CHANCE that he's figured something out, with a big lead, I would have given him a shot at an extra inning. 6] Moran looked good. Why is it, not great but good, he's looked better with the Twins than the Saints? After a couple IP today, does he get sent down again? I sure hope not. Maybe he's just ready? 7] 5-4 against the Gaurdians. Should be 8-1. Should have won the Yankees series 2-1. The absolute mitigating factor is not the rotation or the offense, who will always have bad days. Its the pen. There ARE a couple good arms you can work with. But duct tape and bailing wire and not spending SOMETHING on the pen only gets you so far. This team is just a couple dependable BP arms from having another 4-8÷ wins to secure the ALC and be ready for the playoffs. I don't want to wipe out our milb talent, but we have enough depth to make a move ot two, hopefully soon.
- 41 replies
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- josh winder
- luis arraez
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One High-Upside Reliever Candidate for Twins to Target
DocBauer replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I just don't buy in to every single analytic or peripheral number that's available. I mean, how many are out there to prove so and so is great, or bad, or unlucky? I know there is real value to some of those numbers, BUT AT SOME POINT, there is STILL performance. Case in point, Thielbar has actually been as good as he's ever been except for 3 appearances, if I have it correctly. That's understandable for a RP. You have a couple really bad games, you look awful, it skews things like ERA or W-L and the such. So there is room, to be sure, for a guy who is good to very good 85-90% of the time, but who's numbers get skewed for those few bad appearances. I get it. But still, bad numbers are bad numbers and good numbers are good numbers. Trevino could be a steal on a cheap deal with real upside. But he's only a secondary thought, IMO. HIS team might stink, his defense might stink, but if he's really got good stuff, he should be able to overcome at least some of that. He's a 2nd arm in trade with upside that should come cheap or pass and look elsewhere. -
I am NOT being negative, only observant, in regard to some of the tremendous pitching at both A clubs. The Twins philosophy in regard to pitching is smart, and we've been seeing the results last year and this year. They HAVE drafted HS pitchers here and there early they like. They have been adverse to college pitchers in round 1, and they have explained their reasoning, which is, basically, unless there is someone they just can't pass on, there are college pitchers with projectible frames and at least one great pitch and the such, that they feel just aren't fully developed yet. But TOP bats disappear quickly. Said college pitchers SHOULD do well in low A ball quickly and it wouldn't be out of line to be pretty good at A+ as well. The key is how quickly they advance to A+ and how quickly they move to AA at age 22-23 and still perform well. Right now, from Winder at the ML on down, the question is how many of these young prospects are going to advance, and how quickly. When you have this many options, at least a couple will prove true. A couple will switch to the pen. And others will, of course, just not make it. But the quantity is there to create quality, and that's what excites me. And Wallner...sorry Wichita and your second half...but he needs to be in AAA really soon.
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- matt wallner
- michael helman
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I've actually defended Pagan numerous times when he had us on the edge of our seats at times because I saw velocity and some quality pitches and end results and I felt a little more time to settle in, work on his new split change, and we might just have a pretty decent "later" inning guy on our hands. But after so many disasters the past 20+ days....I just never want to see him pitch a high leverage situation again. How about 5th or 6th inning only. (At least until he's replaced by better sooner or later). And if I never have to watch this kind of disaster from a pitcher over and over agian, it will be too soon. I hate to sound harsh....but....damn!
- 45 replies
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- devin smeltzer
- jose miranda
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Are the Twins Brewing up Steals in the Minors?
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Remember, the slightly larger bag might give the runner an instant for time to slide in, but it works both ways. The defensive player and his glove for the tag is also that extra inch or so closer to the base runner. Still comes down to the pitcher holding guys on and a decent throw by the catcher. I think more attempts at SB is a reaction to the other forthcoming changes in the rules as well as the natural evolution of recognizing just ONE way of building and offense isn't going to be sustainable.- 16 replies
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- austin martin
- mikey perez
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Personally, I think Urshela is better than average. But that's not the point here. Just to be clear, I don't advocate Miranda replacing Urshela at this time. He has the better bat...period...and is part of the future while Urshela is probably not. And I think we agree on that. In a playoff hunt, I can understand not replacing a good player with one potentially better, but maybe less proven. And again, I'm not saying bench Urshela. I'm just asking for a better balancing act where Miranda gets a little more time at 3B. I mean, have we even seen enough of him to even make a fair judgement as to his defensive potential at 3B? To ramble and digress a bit, I can recall Gaetti and Koskie coming up back in the day, whom I've alluded to previously here and there, as being reported butchers with the glove. Turned out a little time, hard work and experience and they were excellent glove men as well as big bats. Plouffe and Cuddyer are similar examples, to a somewhat smaller degree. A pair of failed SS, one who turned in to a solid 3B for a few years, one who was OK at 3B, but became a much better OF. Of course, there are other examples and other positions. But the point is until someone plays a position and gets a real opportunity, we just don't know how good he might be there. (Or bad). Keep Urshela as the primary 3B for now as long as he's performing. But simply balance today and tomorrow a bit more and let the younger player and better bat Miranda get a few more opportunities at 3B. And keep putting a good bat in at DH, Miranda or anyone else, and not fill a name on the lineup card just because someone is a veteran.
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It's not Miranda on pace for 126 games played. It's the way in which he's being used for that 126 games that is being called in to question, IMO. I like Urshela a lot. I've seen him fail to make a few plays, but not that many. And I love the big time, standout plays he's made. And his bat is solid. Not great, but solid. And he seems well liked and a good guy. But Miranda is a top prospect. He has a much better bat and is actually part of the future. I'm all in favor of his continuing to learn and play 1B for roster construction and flexibility, but how does a top prospect develop and show how good they can be when they don't hardly play their primary position? Again, I like Urshela. If he can fit roster wise, I'd like to have him for 2023 playing across the infield, (though I know he's limited in experience at 1B/2B). But he's not good enough, special enough, part of the future probably, to just take up 90% of the time at 3B ahead of a top prospect who can only get better when allowed to do so. Don't even get me started on the catcher at DH scenario
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Are the Twins Brewing up Steals in the Minors?
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I've stated a few times over the past couple of years, here and there, that these things are cyclical in sports, baseball more so, IMO. I don't think the way of the HR is going to go away. It's still the biggest game changer. But you can't always count on the long ball. An ideal offense would still have a guy or two like Arraez who can flat out hit and get OB to a high degree. Said ideal offense would have a couple of guys who can steal bases on a successful percentage to put pressure on the defense and the pitcher, setting the table for mistakes and good hitters knocking in runs with singles. There are a lot of ways to score runs and win, and an ideal offense would incorporate a variety of ways to do so. I think the bygone days of the 80's Cardinals and other teams who lived on speed are just that, gone. But changes in defensive alignments, pitch clocks, robot umps, all of these things are going to have at least some affect on future offensive approaches. I'm not sure how deliberate the Twins are in this area, but they are certainly looking at players who have athleticism/speed and the SB ability. I wouldn't be shocked, with some more development to be sure, if we didn't see Martin in the OF and Julian as a super utility guy, as part of the regular lineup providing a mix of hitting, OB, pop/power and SB ability.- 16 replies
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- austin martin
- mikey perez
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Actually glad I was working today and couldn't watch the game. I don't think my nerves could have taken it after the last two games, LOL. Kudos to Gordon! Every once in a while that bat speed of his will send a ball to the gaps or over the wall. But my goodness, he really tattooed that ball! There's a reason he's on this team, he's very useful as the last man. I liked Smeltzer his rookie year and thought he had a chance. After a pair of poor/injured seasons he looks to be back, and maybe I wrong, but is his velocity up a tick or two? I'm not quite sure how he's doing the job he is with such low K numbers, but he's getting the job done for sure. Except for the AZ game he's throwing 6 IP+ and keeping the opposition at bay. With what's on hand, what's coming back next year due to current injury, what's developing/coming up in Winder, Balazovic, Varland, SWR, etc, plus potential trades and FA, I can't predict his future. But are we still at too SSS, OR, do we tip our cap at this point and just say: "yep, solid ML starting pitcher"?
- 49 replies
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- devin smeltzer
- nick gordon
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I haven't even read the OP or anything else at this point. I am beyond disappointed and incensed at the moment. I always try to be even keel and see the big picture. I believe in day by day in a 162 game season. And I have been a a believer in Rocco, even when I've disagreed with him at times. In fact, I've often defended him and shook my head at some of the vitriol sent his way that I think is unwarranted and misguided. But a 13yo little leaguer could have managed Wednesday's game better! Tell me I'm wrong? I actually kinda like Pagan and like the improvements he's made. I just want him in the 6th and 7th, not the 8th or 9th. And while I remain flabbergasted as to the pitch sequence that seemed to cause the lost lead on Tuesday, I give him kudos for coming out tonight and just dominating the 8th. Retribution! But who in their right mind believed Pagan should have been sent out for a 2nd inning after pitching last night? Especially when you had other options, including an already warmed up, veteran arm sitting on the bench presumably ready to go. Pagan is done. Jax is thrown in to an almost impossible situation. Rocco lost the game. He should be apologizing to his team, and the fans, for how obtuse he was. And he should be explaining to his bosses what the hell he was thinking. This is not a personal attack on Baldelli, especially considering it comes from someone who has largely believed in and supported him. But Wednesday's debacle of mismanagement deserves to be rattled out loud on top of a soapbox. (Heavy sigh)
- 80 replies
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- sonny gray
- emilio pagan
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Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022
DocBauer commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
Just adding my $.02. I really appreciate the work and the opinions presented. For the most part, I think your grading is largely fair, though, of course, arbitrary. Obviously a lot of thought and consideration is applied here. I do agree that ignoring drafting and development beyond the 3rd round is missing and important in the grand scheme, but also almost impossible to rank and quantify without making it a full time occupation, so I get that and recognize the structure of what you are looking at. I think your grade on Lewis is too low. There is nothing to predict his 1st knee injury vs his 2nd. In fact, he should almost receive "bonus points" for missing 2yrs of competitive play for what he's shown in 2022. I also think you are too low on Jeffers, as has already been discussed, debated, and argued at length, so I'm not going to go there other than to say...I see better defensive value than you do. College player or not, he was pushed up on 2020 and did great and is now a "victim" of his success that season. I never bought in to that year for 2021 when pundits speculated the Twins had the best catching tandem in MLB. I expected regression and future growth. Only 25yo and less than 600 PA, I still expect growth. Like Garver, he hit in college, he hit in milb, he's going to hit at the ML level. How well he hits is open to debate. But as a hitter, he is NOT a finished product yet. I never liked the Cavaco pick, despite helium and athletic talent. I thought it was a reach. Youth, covid, injury, still very young and talented, he might still harness ability at 3B or OF, but, he was a real reach/flier IMO. And I never got the Sabato selection. OK, I DO understand drafting BPA and projection. And his bat projected well. But IIRC, there was a collection of at least a few arms who projected as being at least mid rotation talent. I like a lot of the choices the FO has made, early and late. But I agree they reached on Cavaco and Sabato and may get burned by both. -
Not crazy about Wallner's proclivity for SO. But for the most part, I think you generally accept a certain amount of SO for a power hitter. But as Dman alludes to, there is a difference between SO vs also "accepting" the BB a pitcher offers you. In other words, don't swing at stuff out of the zone when being pitched around. As much as we question Wallner's SO and contact ability, he has a career OB of .370 before his .408 thus far in 2022. Career AVG is .264 vs .270 so far this year. I'm OK with the SO if he keeps walking when the BB is offered. I think the bat plays, and the power is certainly there. It's not so much the SO, but to keep hitting and still maintain the BB to the degree where you take what's offered and not flail. (Hello Mr. Sano). I confess to never having been able to watch him live or see his defense. I know from all reports he's got a gun for an arm, as a former pitcher. A large individual, I just don't know his range. And routes and reads are about as important as range. But even with pitchers not holding runners well at AA, or lesser arms from catchers, if a man as big as he is can steal/sneak 7 SB, I'd like to think he can move well enough to play the OF to an acceptable degree. He doesn't have to be Kepler to be a solid RF. He needs to read and react and move decently and use his arm as needed. Personally, I think Wallner is a part time OF and DH as Larnach will EVENTUALLY move to RF and Martin, or potentially someone else, will take over LF with AK being the primary 1B. But that's all so very fluid and at least one year away, if not two. But Twins or someone else, he's going to be a regular in a lineup by 2024.
- 3 replies
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- matt wallner
- cody laweryson
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Sorry, years and dollars are just too much for this to happen, much as it would be fun and I've turned in to a big Correa fan. But I can and will play along. I understand the whole 10yrs and $35M per since it's been handed out to a similar player. But I have to say, just because it's been doesn't mean someone will do it again. I mean, you only need one team, but that team might have been the team that did so last year. Plus, you may have your choice of 3 very good ones again this year. Regardless, Correa is already playing this season for $35M, so he's really looking at a 7-9yr deal if/when he opts out. If the market just isn't there for 8 or 9 years, the Twins could go 7 and not feel bad about themselves. And as Brandon addressed earlier, the Twins would be in a position the next few years to front load the contract. This allows greater flexibility down the road for extensions and signings, and doesn't handcuff the payroll in Correa's final seasons when he will inevitably begin to decline. That's about the only way, 7yrs and front load the first few years.
- 41 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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While not firing on all cylinders all the time...and I'm not sure anyone does...this Twins term IS a quality, winning, contending team. Health and injury has bogged the Twins down a bit in early June, but health is returning. And it will, hopefully, be that much better over the next week or two as guys ramp up to 100% and Polanco and Winder get healthy, though Winder MIGHT stick at St Paul for a little while to build his arm back up. Hopefully, we get a healthy Alcala back by the end of July. I believe this team is in BUY mode, for sure, with some caveats. Let me try to phrase this properly. I like this team an awful lot. They are a great mix of young and young-ish players, with only a couple exceptions, who are going to be around for at least a few more years to come. Contracts and payroll are largely under control, offering flexibility. The milb system is having an OUTSTANDING season, even as a few prospects have struggled, or are just getting it going. And yet, others have clearly jumped up as well. Kudos! Unfortunately, a couple, potential, important pieces have struggled a bit thus far. Balazovic hasn't gotten going yet, Canterino has has, hopefully, a mild setback, Lewis is done until mid 2023, Sands has only flashed a little, and 40 man Strotman has almost detonated. On the other side of things, Larnach and Miranda are growing up right before our eyes along with Celestino and Winder, before injury. Kirilloff SEEMS to be getting it together, and there is real hope he's past issues and is here to stay. All very good things! I believe the Twins are a very good team that is just about to put it all together. And yes, I mean even this year, despite having some holes. I still believe 2020 and some injuries...Lewis and AK to be sure...have slowed the development of a few very good young players that still impact 2022. You build the best team you can, and you NEVER FEAR anyone. The Yankees are on pace to maybe break W-L records? Maybe. But we blew their doors off in 1 game at home and nearly did the same, or at least win, if ONE BP arm stepped up that 3rd day. And who knows, maybe the Twins wouldn't face the Yanks in the playoffs this year. Anyone can beat anyone in a short series. Witness various Doger losses, and the Braves winning it all just recently. I feel the Twins, still building with so many talented young pieces, are a quality team that might not hit their peak until 2023-24, but are good enough to challenge that it would be a HUGE disappointment not to buy and augment the current roster! Barring a collapse that I feel could only happen due to mass injury, Correa isn't going anywhere. To do so would only open a HUGE hole and offer no immediate return. And we don't need prospects for one of the top players in all of MLB while we're contending. If not beyond, Correa stays for 2022. Unless you are trading youth and potential and control, there is no major offensive gain to be added by a trade for a position player on anything short term, Unless you are trading youth and potential and control, there is no major SP gain to be added by a trade for a short term addition, IMO. Are you really going to get someone better than Gray and Ryan to add? You'd better. And he better have at least another year, if not more, for what it would potentially cost in what you give up. So unless, unless some more, with all due respect to the guys who have held the pen together with duct tape and potential, what this team really needs is a pair of quality RP options for the pen. You can do like 2019 and trade for a couple short term, quality arms and trade from the back end up the prospect pool, OR, you can trade more from the front end of the talent pool and grab a couple live arms from losing teams that have at least one more year of control. If you do that, you potentially finish 2022 STRONG in the pen along with what you have, believe in your offense, trust in your rotation, and have a pen mostly constructed for 2023. Either could work. One way or another, the Twins need to be buyers. Anything can happen for a good and potentially dangerous team with a better pen. But I don't feel this is the year for any sort of MAJOR trading sell off to buy.
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Three Trade Targets That Fit The Twins Style
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Absolutely not on Hendricks. 32yo, expensive and pitching poorly with low velocity....firm NO. Rogers is very intriguing if the cost isn't TOO high. But young, LH, controllable and remaining options...why on earth would they even consider moving him unless they just think he's beyond fixing. Of course, being desperate for offense COULD motivate them to be sellers. I do have some interest in Marquez, but it's kind of midling. He was good...not great...in 2018 and 2020. I hadn't realized he was still only 27yo. If the Twins and Johnson see something to unlock in him, similar to Maeda and Paddack, I think he'd come relatively cheap prospect wise. There's certainly the potential to unlock more with him. But if you guess wrong, he's really no better than anything we already have. -
There's been a lot of recent conversations concerning the August trade deadline and what the Twins might need. And while any additions to assist the Twins in their drive to WIN, the Central and to advance in the playoffs to do well, if not challenge, are almost universally directed towards the bullpen and the rotation, there has been at least some talk about adding a position player to upgrade the offense, though that's clearly a distant 3rd on the list. Still, I think it's worth taking a look at. Further, there has been conversation about the number of shutouts the team has "zeroed up" thus far, and what it might mean. It's always great if your team adds an even better player than they had before at any position. But in this instance, we're not talking about a young rising prospect, we're taking about a trade option. And that means prospect capital and a debate as to "cash out" vs return and how much of a return you might receive, especially if there are other areas of greater concern. And while the idea of leading the league in something as negative as being shutout, context must be allowed. Let's say the Twins end up leading the league for the entire season in shutouts and continue to win 90+ games and are in the payoffs. First of all, all teams and all payers have good days, bad days, hot streaks, and cold streaks. To carry it further, let's just attempt a similar example of winning teams. For giggles, we'll just use the Blue Jay's. Let's say both teams win approximately 94 games and are in the playoffs. And let's say the Twins end up with...IDK...let's just say a dozen shutouts to lead the league. But a stat-head looks deeper and sees that the Jay's lead the league in losses while scoring only 1 run in 14 losses. Soooo...the Jay's have a better and more consistent offense because they were shutout less? Just saying, context folks. Unless MLB changes gears again and decides teams will be allowed to continue having 14 pitchers...or do something crazy and raise roster limits unexpectedly...rosters will soon be split 13/13 in regard to pitchers and position players. Let's examine a HEALTHY Twins player roster. OF:] Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, Garlick INF] Urshela, Miranda, Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Kirilloff, Gordon C] Jeffers, Sanchez That's 14 players, folks, and 1 more than they can afford to have on the roster. And there's not a player, IMO, that doesn't bring something to the table and doesn't deserve to be there. So cut, injury, or demotion, it's already a crunch. So barring that, who can you add that really makes a difference to the lineup, enough, to warrant losing someone or trading someone? And if someone is traded, I can't see doing so for a rental addition in order to weaken yourself going forward. So let's look at the Twins offense as it stands today, July 17th: BA. R. OB% SLG. OPS AL: T=3RD 4th T=2ND 5TH 4TH MLB T=8TH 10TH 8TH 7TH 8TH Honestly, some of these rankings are so close that 1 day can cause fluctuations. But what this shows is two things. #1, the Twins offense is one of the top 3/4 in the AL at this point. Period. #2, there is an interesting fluctuation when the AL is compared to the NL in overall MLB rankings. Considering that cross-divisional play is still a relatively SSS, I put little stock in the NL just being better offensively than the AL. There are many factors to be considered from pitching to ballparks to weather. IMPO, I think it's a combination of all the above, PLUS, the NL having the DH for the first time. There is bound to be an adjustment period. So there you have it. The Twins have one of the best offenses in the AL despite some bad days. IMO, the only "weakness" the Twins lineup has is a number of very talented but young players who haven't been through the playoff wars yet. I just don't see where improvement is provided by any deal that makes any difference that, well, improves the offense to a degree that makes a difference vs need in the pen, and maybe the rotation
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Is José Miranda a Deadline Trade Candidate?
DocBauer replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I honestly hadn't thought of Miranda being used in a trade. I guess in my head, he was part of the next wave and wasn't going anywhere. But he does make sense with Urshela around, Arraez able to play a solid 3B, Steer's development, as well as the possibility of Lewis changing positions if the almost unimaginable happens and Correa ends up sticking around. Miranda's bat is real. He's probably going to be a solid AVG hitter with decent contact and should give you 55-60 XBH every year. He's got the arm and enough athleticism to be a solid 3B, though he needs polish. Most young guys do, especially when they're swimming in the deep end for the first time. 1B is a fallback option. He's not going to bring a TOP SP without being paired with at lest one more top 10-20 prospect. Period. And I think he's too good with too nice of a future to trade for a RP unless you're getting a dynamite one with at least a couple more years of control. Even then, with the volatility of the profession, a toss in might be needed. So yeah, it makes sense to list him as a viable trade option. But either he's part of a great deal, or you probably keep him for now.