Jon Heyman has reported the Dodgers are interested in the 29-year-old left-hander while Gleeman and Hayes have reported the Twins are pursuing him.

At an expected total contract value of around $150m, Rodon will go for a premium this offseason.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/dodgers-twins-interested-in-carlos-rodon.html

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I say give him $35m for season 1 and 2 with $30m for 3 & 4 and a $25option for year five. Give him an opt out after each of years 1 and 2.

 

 

OK. So he's a Doger next year.

Time to focus on SS. Once that's done, focus on ONE really good arm to deepen the back end of the pen. Maybe two? Fulmer and Rogers on 1yr deals or 1 +1 offers? Add a quality RH bat and a 6th SP as good as what we have, and a catcher to pair with Jeffers. 

$145-150M payroll with infield defense, a nice rotation with depth, a potentially great pen, and improved offense.

Rodon is basically the one big FA I don’t want the Twins to get. He is a massive overpay. Never pay that much for pitching because it’s hard for any pitcher to stay healthy and keep up those numbers. 

I'll make this prediction and stick with it: Rodón will not get $150M.

I think he can beat the recent contracts for Gausman, Ray, and Wheeler, which were all between $110-$118M—maybe in part because teams spend more freely this offseason—but I think those deals will be a baseline for comparison. I'll bet he gets $120-125M if it's a similar 5-year deal, or a little more or less (adjusting the AAV accordingly) if the deal is shorter or  longer.

I'd rather get Bassitt for an extra year at the same total. 

Mod note: Please stick to the topic. Thanks.

On 11/25/2022 at 1:54 PM, Rosterman said:

I say give him $35m for season 1 and 2 with $30m for 3 & 4 and a $25option for year five. Give him an opt out after each of years 1 and 2.

 

 

I would be ok with this offer! Maybe remove opt out after year 1, we want him around for 2 years. Also we sign Correa to 10/325. With opt outs at 3,5, and 7 years.

We could free up money by trading Kepler, signing Sandy Leon for cheap 2nd Catcher.

Payroll under 160 million.

Print the World Series tickets.....

On 11/25/2022 at 11:21 PM, WhenWillWeBeatNY said:

Rodon is basically the one big FA I don’t want the Twins to get. He is a massive overpay. Never pay that much for pitching because it’s hard for any pitcher to stay healthy and keep up those numbers. 

what about Verlander?

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

what about Verlander?

Because we can't compete with the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Astros for his services

On 11/25/2022 at 1:54 PM, Rosterman said:

I say give him $35m for season 1 and 2 with $30m for 3 & 4 and a $25option for year five. Give him an opt out after each of years 1 and 2.

 

 

I'd be a big no an opt-out after year 1. really don't want to do this dance again after just one year? year two? ok, if it's what gets the deal done, but this structure almost guarantees he opts out if he's healthy and is extremely player-friendly for a guy who still has injury red flags.

But I would love to have Rodon at the top of the rotation. I don't have a very good feel on what he gets for a contract in terms of dollars. It kinda feels like $125M is more in the range where the team assumes he's going to be hurt for one year out of the 5, and hopes it doesn't come until year 4...

The Twins are in much better shape this off season than last year's off season, regarding pitching, even though some pitchers will remain/get injured this year. Last year The Twins needed bodies to fill the #3 #4 and #5 SP spots vs. this year the Twins are seeking a #1 SP, which will move each of the current starting 5 down a notch. The Twins will be OK with 2-5 coming from Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands. There is much less need for FA or trade bodies to fill a roster this year. And last year the Twins did not know that Duran, Jax and Thielbar would do so well in relief. Acala is returning and Moran and Lopez should be adequate. Plus the usual cast of characters will be available. This year the Twins appear to be actively seeking a long term, rock solid, All Star SS plus a lefty strikeout ace SP and a second catcher. And due to the good play of some promising young players, who don't cost much money, the funds are available to sign at least 2 super star FA's. Not bad when compared to last off season. 

$140 - $150M for 5 years is what it will take to get in on a legitimate ace that the Twins sorely need. 

I'm okay with that. I'm not okay with a 1-year opt out. Essentially, he'd be a free agent next season unless he develops an arm injury or loses a few ticks on his fastball. 

I don't want to see the team in the same boat next year with this Carlos as they are with the current one. If Rodon would take a 3 year contract with a higher base, that would be ideal. But he will get 5 from someone -- and $150M is easily in play if the Dodgers are at the table.

I hope that the Twins can get him on an affordable contract, but highly doubt that is possible with the Dodgers interest in him.  They need to be careful not to be drawn into a massive overpay after the Dodgers jack up his price.  I trust the FO here as this type of bidding process is typically not the MO.

On 11/29/2022 at 10:21 AM, Squirrel said:

Because we can't compete with the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Astros for his services

I know that lol. 

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I hope that the Twins can get him on an affordable contract, but highly doubt that is possible with the Dodgers interest in him.  They need to be careful not to be drawn into a massive overpay after the Dodgers jack up his price.  I trust the FO here as this type of bidding process is typically not the MO.

i generally agree, however he might be worth paying more for.  I think the Twins need him badly enough to pay a bit more than they would typically pay to get him.  I still don't think it will happen with the Dodgers in the mix, but you never know.  

Man, the Twins' rotation would look so much better with a legitimate ace.  Give the young pitching a chance to develop behind guys like Rodon, Gray, perhaps even Maeda if he has anything left. The jump to the bigs is stressful enough. Let them work their way into the rotation the way Johann Santana did years ago rather than getting thrown into the fire the way they have been so often since.

(Hello, Vance Worley, you're our Opening Day starter! Yeah, that sure went well...)

Twins badly need a lefty in their all-righty rotation. Rodon might be the most realistic high-level fit for the Twins over the past few offseasons. Consider this: their highest-ranked LHP prospect is Brent Headrick. If not Rodon, then Jose Quintana is possibly the next best lefty available this winter via FA. Stark drop-off after Rodon.

14 hours ago, talkintwins said:

Twins badly need a lefty in their all-righty rotation. Rodon might be the most realistic high-level fit for the Twins over the past few offseasons. Consider this: their highest-ranked LHP prospect is Brent Headrick. If not Rodon, then Jose Quintana is possibly the next best lefty available this winter via FA. Stark drop-off after Rodon.

Didn't the Twins just draft a LH starter phenom (Connor Prielipp) that according to reports will move up through the organization rather quickly?  I think he will become their highest-ranked LHP real soon.  He won't be ready this year but possibly in 2024.

22 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Didn't the Twins just draft a LH starter phenom (Connor Prielipp) that according to reports will move up through the organization rather quickly?  I think he will become their highest-ranked LHP real soon.  He won't be ready this year but possibly in 2024.

Fingers crossed - agreed, Prielipp could rise quickly if there are no setbacks. Wait & see, hope for the best.

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Didn't the Twins just draft a LH starter phenom (Connor Prielipp) that according to reports will move up through the organization rather quickly?  I think he will become their highest-ranked LHP real soon.  He won't be ready this year but possibly in 2024.

They did, and he's actually the top-rated pitcher on my own prospect list, but he also hasn't pitched (officially) since he had TJS, and only 28 total innings in his entire college career... An assumption that he'll be a quick mover is misplaced I think. He'll pitch with kid gloves on him in 2023, and I don't think it's a sure thing he's pitching with a full-season affiliate to start the year because of that.