Dman

I don't completely disagree and love your write up! Still I don't see much of an advantage playing Farmer in left or right. The current team is so left handed all they need to do is move Arraez to DH and there is room for Farmer in the infield or give Arraez the day off against lefties as he doesn't hit them that well either. Kirilloff could play first but he is actually listed as an outfielder and has played lot's of outfield on his way up. Why not use actual outfielders in the outfield? Who else is there to bat right handed in the infield or outfield? I think Farmer is it. I don't know what the righty\lefty splits are on Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Gordon are. Maybe Arraez does better against lefties than all of them. Still that leaves the DH spot open for a righty. I just think given the circumstances it makes more sense to play outfielders in the outfield. Farmer is 32 and while left field isn't all that difficult I'd try and keep him on the dirt where he has played most of his MLB ball. Farmer could be an acceptable\last resort bridge until Lewis returns but do we know when that will be? The one point you might have me on unless something changes is Farmer is likely better in the outfield than Garlick. Not having Garlick on the 40 man leaves room for other players. So I would say you are correct in that scenario. If they did bring Garlick back then yes I would most likely prefer Farmer in the outfield with Garlick in the DH spot as it adds another righty bat and hopefully Farmer would be better defensively in left. Still I don't think Farmer in the outfield is a "good idea" maybe "necessary" but hopefully the Twins come up with a better option.

Sorry!

No one would be concerned about a right handed hitting outfielder if the Twins OPS against left handed pitchers wasn't so poor. If the lefties could hit lefties it wouldn't be a concern. They can't thus the concern.

There doesn't seem to be much reason to play Farmer in the outfield that I can see. If you want more righty bats in the lineup then just move Miranda to 1st base, and put Farmer at 3rd or DH Miranda or Farmer. Why play him out of position in the outfield when it seems you can pretty easily find room in the infield for him? The Twins still need a right handed outfield bat and I wouldn't be surprised to see Garlick fill it yet again. Still a fair bit of the offseason left so things can change but I don't see the need for Farmer in Left baring injuries. Anyone else notice how much the Twins have inquired about centerfielder's this year? First Lauriano, then Taylor I think they are looking for backup potential for Buxton which would be nice. So far though no interest or prices high.

I don't completely disagree but remember the Twins will get two roster spots back when Paddack and Canterino go on the injured list so they they could replace those spots with position players. If the Twins Add a starter then one of the current starters might get bumped to the pen. At any rate they can still balance the roster if needed. In a perfect world you would carry 6 outfielders, 8 infielders and 2 catchers and maybe a DH for position players. That gives you a potential replacement player for each position for a total of 17 players. 40 Man rosters most always carry more pitchers than position players as pitchers tend to get injured more often and need options to be replaced. I don't think you would want more than 18 position players on the 40 man if you can help it but that is just my opinion.

I am not sure if you heard but Sano is no longer on the team. Maybe they should just bring Sano back and forget about Adell? That would be cheaper.

When hit tools are bad count me out. The Twins had tons of time to help change Sano and it never happened. That is why hit tool is the number one thing to go for in the draft without it you can't make the team. I guess if the price was nominal why not but more than likely he is who he is at the plate and that is why the Angels would be willing to move on. Twins need more pitching lottery tickets too so wouldn't be thrilled if that is what it took to get him. With the Twins this desperate for right handed bats I guess I could see it but I doubt it works out.

I haven't looked that closely at Max. I know he was dominant through the minors and looked like a top of the rotation starter but his MLB debut didn't go well and then TJ. He doesn't help the Twins this year, so you would have to factor that in. It is a bit more of a gamble as he has two elite pitches but could end up a reliever if his arm can't hold up. I would be tempted to do that but I think the Twins are in win now mode so probably a no for me as well.

I would never trade Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Trading Arraez for two years of a mid to back end starter seems like suicide to me. If they are going to trade Arraez at least make it for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential. If the Twins are not trading for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential I would just wait until the deadline and see what shakes out then.

I don't know what to think of Urbina just yet. There seems to be a fair bit of work to do. Until last year his K rate was under 20% and even last year it was only 23% so he is making contact just not solid contact. It feels like he might have a bit of Jose Miranda syndrome. Miranda was good at making contact, so good in fact he was able to hit balls outside the zone. The problem was he needed to swing at better pitches to increase his odds of better contact. Once he started walking more and being more choosey at the plate he had his breakout. I don't think that Urbina will ever have the power that Miranda has but I think if he wants to break out the solution would be to follow the Miranda plan. Make pitchers work and try and force them to give you your pitch. Urbina needs to be good in two strike counts. If Urbina can harness plate discipline I think he can be more Arraez like in that he has great contact skills always had and always will. By being patient he should find his way to solid contact and barrel more balls up. I think to breakout that is what it is going to take. Easier said than done. We will see if this is the year it all comes together. It seems like it took Miranda a while to get there so it might not be this year just yet.

I guess the FO knows what they are doing as they got Ortega, Enlow and Garlick through waivers. Nice to have all three off of the 40 man and if performing well enough available if injuries strike. I thought Enlow was gone for sure but I guess other teams saw what I saw.... a lot of hard hit balls. Hopefully things look better in year two after TJ.

Nice OP! The Twins don't "have" to trade Kepler they could play him or Gallo in left. I agree with this piece that Max has a good skillset but we have been waiting years now for the breakout after 2019 and it has been pretty much the same old, same old. He could still breakout and have an amazing season but generally old habits die hard. Still finding a right handed bat helps balance the roster. If the Twins can get an over pay then I think they should pull the trigger on a trade but I wouldn't trade Max just to trade Max.

I guess my main reason for wanting to keep Gordon is he can cover all three outfield spots. He has the arm for right, the speed for center and while not ideal in left, because he is not a power bat he can play there. I don't really trust Celestino as a viable bat at the MLB level just yet so I like knowing the Twins have Gordon there just in case. When\if the Twins get Lewis back then I think Gordon is more expendable. If Martin can prove is ready for the next step then I think Gordon is more expendable. Even last year I recommended trading Arraez or Gordon to remove the potential infield glut but after watching Gordon last year he really seems like a glue guy to me and the timing just doesn't feel right for trading him IMO. I think Farmer is a better option in the infield than Gordon and he brings a right handed bat which is important for this team but the one thing he can't do is play center and we have an injury prone center fielder on the roster. In the end if they traded Gordon I don't think it would be the end of the world and if it doesn't happen this year there is a good possibility it happens next year anyway. There isn't going to be room for everyone. Still the Twins like Gordon, his teammates especially Buxton like Gordon, so I just don't see them trading Gordon.

It seems there are a lot of different ways to approach international signings but I have to say this whole process confounds me. First taking a quick glance at most teams signings (don't have info on (LAD,MIA,PIT,STL,TEX) there are several teams (about 1/3) that just signed 1 player for about 3M to 4M or more (Cin,NYY,Oak,PHI,SD,SF,Sea,TB,Tor) and then a bunch of filler. So those teams are looking to essentially grab one highly rated player and a ton of lower level lottery tickets. So pretty much betting on the one player in a boom or bust scenario. The next most popular scenario appears to be to buy two or three 1M Dollar guys and supplement half a million dollar salaries or less and grabbing lots of players. (i.e. Ari,Bos,CHW,Cle,Det,KC,LAA,Mil,NYM,WSH). This spreads the risk to several athletes outside the top 20 but gives a team more chances to hit on athletes with good upside but maybe not showing elite talent at 16 years of age. Lot's of projection candidates in this range. The final scenario seems to be to get one guy in the 2 to 2.5M range and supplement another 1M player or several half million dollar players (i.e. Atl,Bal,CHC,COL,Hou). This is a scenario where teams seem to try to have their cake and eat it to. They sign an elite player and then an athlete or two with good upside and then a bunch of filler. The Twins fall in this range to an extreme this year as they appear to have signed 2 2M dollar players and third 1 million dollar player in an attempt to get two elite players in one draft and a solid player to boot. I like seeing the Twins going for the big talent this year but it is impossible to know how things will work out. One thing we know for sure is that no matter how much money gets thrown around only about 5% of these guys or less are going to make it. Not all the guys with the big signing bonuses are going to make it and not all the guys who got smaller bonuses are going to fail. It is way to hard to predict what is going to happen to 16 year olds over time but that is the system that is in place. The ratings are nothing more than somewhat logical guesses on current tools and body projection that could all change in a few years time. I had been told this quite a while ago but the Fangraphs article brought it to light again. Most of these deals are being made when these kids are actually only 14 years old. So my question is this. Do the various strategies above depend on the deals team were able to make when the players were 14 and let's say most of the player your team identified didn't quite turn out so you end up with lesser picks? Or do some teams muscle out other teams by spending essentially their whole international allotment on one player squeezing out other potential suitors? There seems to be a whole game with the game when it comes to international signings if you ask me. At any rate some of these guys are going to make it. I like the Twins picks this year though I wonder how they are going to fill out their team with so few picks this year since they blew most of their money on the first three picks. It might not be best for the players but it sure seems like a draft would be a better way to disperse international talent to MLB teams but that is just my opinion after looking into it.

Just an FYI things are lightning fast for me now. Thanks for all you do!

Have to agree pretty massive slowness for me so far. Certainly slower than the site used to run before. Delays are pretty significant for this day and age. They are sure they are not running on backup site or dial up? lol. This stuff can be tough but I can say I didn't expect it to be this slow.

Yeah I like this pick\signing for the Twins. He has one of the best bats in this years class. If you are going to take a guy with even just one good\plus tool I would make it the bat. Kid has a nice strong build to top it off and looks built for power so I like the odds. Still has to have a good eye at the plate and play defense and find ways to be the best of the best so as others have said a long ways to go. My first impression of this kid is a good one though.

Yeah that doesn't sound on the up and up does it. I have to agree with Boras which I am loathe to do but if that was what they were going to do then doesn't it follow that they were always gonna try and lowball Correa in some way? Why only half the contract value as well? They couldn't have done a deal like the Twins and pay for performance? Doesn't add up to me. Feels a little dirty but that is just my perception of it.

If he is willing to sign a minor league deal why not. He seemed to be getting better plate discipline but there is something off in his swing path or hand eye coordination as he swings through a lot of pitches. Also the umps do not seem to give him the benefit of the doubt on close calls. Maybe getting in line with the Robo umps could help him in the future. Twins don't have ton of right handed bats ready and no one coming up in the system for a while either. If Sano can perform at AAA then maybe he can thrive with a second chance?

I like the analysis but doctors have been right in the past especially Mets doctors as they nixed the trade for Paddack from the Padres and Paddack did end up needing TJ. Also a while back Houston got a ton of crap about trying to lowball Brady Aiken about likely needing TJ and he blew out his arm right away as well. As stated in the article doctors can be right and wrong we won't know for sure about Correa until the end of the contract.

With Garlick finally off the 40 man the Twins are down from 9 outfielders to 8 which is still too many outfielders to carry on the 40 man IMO. 6 would be ideal but 7 is fine. They really just need to trade Max unless they also want to bring in a right handed bat for the outfield. If they are fine with Farmer in a left field role then again they just need to remove one outfielder from the 40 man and they are fine. If the Twins do want to add a right handed bat to the outfield then they should probably look to trade Larnach or Wallner as well. They both appear to be similar players. I like that Larnach can hit oppo as I think that gives him a slight advantage bat wise but Wallner has the better arm. It is a tough call on that one but I think Larnach has more trade value and if they feel they want more 40 man room then I would look to trade him as well. Looking to next year as things stand they will likely need to add Rodriguez, Urbina, Martin and Maybe Severino so something is going to have give at some point. Personally I think they should move one of the outfielders and the only two that make much sense to move are Kepler and Larnach. We will see what Twins end up doing.

Wow If Paddack can return to form that is a huge get for the Twins. With 3 starters potentially gone after this year having Paddack for two more years should really help. If he doesn't return to form then that would be a bummer. Still I like this risk for the Twins. He was pitching really well before he went down and I think the Twins can help him regain his market value. Really need Varland and SWR to work out as the pipeline is getting thin on starting pitching, Paddack could help bridge the gap.

Yeah I went to Fangraphs and he seems to be rated their 2nd best shortstop. They have him with a 70 arm and like you said good foot speed and bat speed. I mean if you read between the lines the MLB writeup says he has a projected strong arm but they just give solid tools across the board description and they have him ranked 38th so not the ringing endorsement fangraphs gives Chivilli. After reading the fangraphs description you can't help but be super excited about the kid. It seems like the Twins have been going after some real solid young shortstops recently. Last year in the 2022 draft they grabbed Danial Omari who might have 4 out of 5 plus tools but there are questions about the bat. 2021 they grabbed Noah Miller who might not have a ton of plus tools yet but he is switch hitter and it looks like his defense is going to be good. The Twins are going to have some talented young players in the lower levels. Fangraphs is not quite as high on Castro as MLB.com. Looks like a more bat heavy prospect than one that is tooled up. Still he looks like a nice pick as I like bat first players. They seem to move faster. The catcher the Twins are picking does not seem to be on the fangraphs list but still nice the Twins are grabbing one. At any rate thanks for the info makes me feel better about Chivilli but all these guys have a long ways to go. Most of them won't get past the FCL or A ball. Those that make it past that have decent odds though. Pro ball is brutally tough as you keep going up against the best of the best.

Thanks for the info!! Recency bias has got me bit down on some of their SS picks. Really hope Chivilli turns out. The MLB article did say he has a lot of good projection but hard to judge at 17. Would have liked it more if they thought he had a plus bat but who knows he might have more plus skills as he develops.

Yeah Salas would have been a great get. Still Silva looks solid at least they are grabbing one of higher rated catchers for once.