Dman

Yeah I think most likely the Twins said last offer was it. I think they felt plenty uncomfortable offering that contract and with some new medical concerns I doubt they were willing to go higher. At any rate even if they had moved to 300M Cohen would have just upped the anti IMO. From what I have read he is a pretty persuasive guy and willing to put his money where his mouth is. The Mets will be in it every year and Correa just a cog there. If he went with the Twins likely a lot of losing in his future and very limited opportunities to be on the big stage for the world series. Seems like a no brainer to go to the Mets even if the contracts were equal to me. Even if the Twins paid more he might have gone to the Mets All Star team as the game is a lot more fun when you are winning.

Boy was I wrong. I thought the Giants would keep Correa for sure. Can't believe the Mets got it done essentially paying 52M per year for Correa. That is going to be one tough team I can see why Correa wanted to go there. The Mets will need to keep those arms healthy and they have some older arms but if they do they look World Series bound to me.

I don't know that I am convinced this is a deal breaker for SF. They might want to restructure with option years or something hard to say but I think at the end of the day this gets done. He was fine last year and he was never making it the full 13 years they gave him anyway. Not aware of his ankle being an issue more his back. We will see but I can't see SF backing out now.

I think you can depend on Gordon for a mid 700 OPS. He has been right around those numbers most of his career and as he adjusted a tick better at times. He is a solid defender at all outfield positions and a plus defender in left field. Probably plus at 2nd base as well but he doesn't get much time there. I was ready to trade him going in to last year but once truly healthy he had a really good year. Hoping for more of the same as he is an important part of this team now.

This is a good point. You definitely could argue they could have traded Kepler and been in better shape by getting something for one of their left handed outfielders and not even Signing Gallo. There are too many outfielders on the 40 man as it is. Adding another doesn't make much sense unless of course they have trades in place that involve more outfielder's than just Kepler. I am all for knowing what we have in Larnach and Kirilloff but the fact they Haven't been healthy even close to a full season makes it hard to trust they can\will make it. With Kirilloffs wrist issues he might never make it. Wallner's D in right is a definite step down from Kepler so I can see why the FO might have wanted something a little more solid there at least to start the season. Still in a vacuum I think you make a good point.

After looking into it more I gave this one a C. I get that he appears to be a fairly equal stand in if they trade Kepler. If he does rebound, and that is a big if, then my grade is likely too low. Also if they get something that helps the team by dealing Kepler that changes the perception of this trade some. With Gallo they have a vet bat to Bridge the kids (Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner) and make sure they can play at the MLB level. That is if we are not getting last years Joey Gallo. Still this move would have looked better if they had found a right handed bat for right field as we have none right now. The closest one in the system if he keeps things going would be Urbina who starts at High A next year. In a vacuum I hate this deal but I do want to wait and see how everything falls into place before going too negative on this one. All in all it just wasn't a deal I was looking for the Twins to make as I don't see how it really makes the team that much better. If what they get with Kepler or package with Kepler makes a big difference I look at this differently. Still wish he was a right handed bat.

I got to tell you I am starting to come around on your theory. These mid guys generally are not difference makers and at 11 to 15 mil per pop they are not cheap either.

It is most likely going to be Mark Contreras coming off the the 40 man, but I also see a Kepler trade in the future as well.

So you need a right handed bat in the outfield and you go and get another left handed bat with high K numbers. Just what we needed? Obviously this means Kepler is being traded for sure. Just a matter of time. Not the news I was hoping to hear. The Twins must see a rebound coming because his OPS was worse than Keplers last year and he isn't the defender Kepler is either. His career batting average is .199 so there is that to look forward too.

Lee would need a Monster AA start to the season and then conquer AAA for at least a month to get a chance. Not sure he is gonna be ready that fast. They both look more likely to get called up in August or September. Not sure how long until Lewis can get started this year but since he already proved he can handle AAA he still looks first in line to me. I do hope Lee is ready sooner rather than later. We need both of those players to be success stories ASAP or it is going to be hard for this team to compete in the short term.

Twins must have really believed they were going to get Correa to have gotten rid of Gio. Probably had Farmer pegged as the third basemen spelling Correa on occasion at short. Guess they should have waited as now they either need a SS or third baseman in Turner to make things work. Lewis and Lee have never been more important to the Twins future than right now. Really need both of them to step up into roles that will help this team now and in the future.

Almost 30M per year for 6 years? No Thanks. We will see how this one ends up but that Yankee rotation looks really, really good right now. They are going to be a team to be reckoned with if they stay healthy.

Really appreciate the insight! Thanks for the thoughtful analysis! As a fan\arm chair GM I wasn't enamored with even a ten year deal for Correa and yes I am one of those posters who didn't think 285M would get it done and it didn't. I don't know if you can call even 285M for 10 years disciplined as even that contract was not likely to age well and yet they offered it, but yes in general I believe this FO has been disciplined in there financial approach. Sticking with shorter term contracts and trading for the talent they need. I thought they were pretty aggressive trying to get starting pitching last year but they got burned by the pen early in the season and the offense never really did click all that well last season, Still they were in first place for the majority of the year but for as close as the club house was they never really gelled results wise on the field. I don't know if not getting Correa or Rodon are the be all end all for this team. They need better starting pitching and a more consistent pen and I think they can compete with anyone. Thanks again for giving your perspective! It is nice to get a feel for what it feels like inside a FO.

Very nice post! It is possible they were hoping he would take less to stay in MN and maybe in the end that is why SF needed to bump their offer 70M over the Twins offer. Still I think the Twins needed a way to get to at least 300M to have a chance. Every team has their limits and I am guessing the Twins felt they stretched as far as they could go at 285M. I have to believe that kind of money for that many years made them very uncomfortable as it was. Still they had to know SF was likely going to make him the highest paid shortstop. I don't think Boras was going to give in until he got that for Correa. IMO They needed to get closer to that mark for Correa to do an I like MN discount. An extra 70M is pretty hard to turn down no matter how much you like MN. If they "truly" wanted him they needed to do better than that.

I will agree the Front Office looks clueless if they thought 285 was going to get it done. Given Boras and Correa wanted 35.1 Million to get him the highest AAV for a shortstop should have been a clue to anyone not deaf or blind what it was going to take to sign him. 300 was the starting point and they didn't even make it to starting line. I think 325 might have gotten it done but we will never know as the Twins never got there and from the sounds of it never were going to get there. I will disagree on missing out on some of those players on the OPs list. Turner turned down more money to stay on the east coast he was never coming to MN. The Twins had no interest in Contreras for what ever reason and they got the catcher they did want. I don't believe they were in on Abreu either and all of the central passed on him as well. Maybe Boegarts but given his number was past the absolute max of 285 getting that deal done seems unlikely as well. I will give you Basset and Anderson who knows if that had anything to do with Correa or not. So yes I agree they were clueless if they were waiting on Correa given what they offered but I don't think I can agree they missed out on many of the names you mentioned above because of it.

If you are the Twins you had to know that to get Correa you were going to have to make him the highest paid shortstop in the sport. Anything under 300M would have been a slap in the face IMO. I can see why this dragged out now. He might have wanted to come back to Minnesota and waited to see if they would move off that number but they didn't. So off to San Fran who did what needed to be done. Technically I was fine with however this played out. Correa would have really helped this team especially by plugging the hole at short for the next 6 years or so. He also might have hamstrung this team from other moves as well. Given how poorly the team did with him he wasn't the "difference maker" I was hoping he would be. Also as he aged the last few years of that contract were likely to get ugly. If the Twins would have offered him 10\350 I am not sure the value would be there and still there was and probably never will be a player they could have felt this comfortable taking a chance on. Positive club house guy always interested in doing the right things for himself and his teammates. Pretty much rock solid numbers through his career. Maybe value isn't everything though as we are seeing other clubs look past it to try and field playoff type teams. So far no one in the central has offered that large a contract to a player yet so I guess they are not alone in that regard. Given what happened last year I don't think this is a make or break deal but I am a little disappointed the Twins didn't offer at least a 300M contract. IMO They were never "really" in this thing despite the reports.

If you are the Twins you had to know that to get Correa you were going to have to make him the highest paid shortstop in the sport. Anything under 300M would have been a slap in the face IMO. I can see why this dragged out now. He might have wanted to come back to Minnesota and waited to see if they would move off that number but they didn't. So off to San Fran who did what needed to be done. Technically I was fine with however this played out. Correa would have really helped this team especially by plugging the hole at short for the next 6 years or so. He also might have hamstrung this team from other moves as well. Given how poorly the team did with him he wasn't the "difference maker" I was hoping he would be. Also as he aged the last few years of that contract were likely to get ugly. If the Twins would have offered him 10\350 I am not sure the value would be there and still there was and probably never will be a player they could have felt this comfortable taking a chance on. Positive club house guy always interested in doing the right things for himself and his teammates. Pretty much rock solid numbers through his career. Maybe value isn't everything though as we are seeing other clubs look past it to try and field playoff type teams. So far no one in the central has offered that large a contract to a player yet so I guess they are not alone in that regard. Given what happened last year I don't think this is a make or break deal but I am a little disappointed the Twins didn't offer at least a 300M contract. IMO They were never "really" in this thing despite the reports.

I think you are pretty spot on. For an example look at Buxton and his speed and how he changes games just with his defense. Add in the fact that Ruiz could be a sleeper Buxton 2.0 as he had a .900 OPS in AAA and IMO you can see the appeal. He isn't necessarily "just" a speed guy he has good power for a center fielder as well. Can you imagine Pache and Ruiz in the same outfield? A's are on their their way to a great defensive outfield with two players that can put the pressure on the other teams D by beating out infield throws and stealing bases. I can see why the A's wanted him so badly. It is the same reason I want the Twins to take Bradfield in the draft. They could mix and match outfield with Buxton, Gordon, Lewis and Bradfield. That could be fun too.

Agreed. Tarnok is a K machine and at AAA so very close to his MLB debut. Muller is another AAA pitcher with good stuff and rated Oaklands number 5 prospect in a loaded system. Ruiz has 80 grade speed and 900 OPS at AAA and is rated number 6. His MLB debut did not go well but 80 grade speed can play well especially if he has a decent hit tool. Oaklands farm is loaded right now and they will draft high again this year so in the next couple of years they should be a young team and force to be reckoned with. The A's found the pitching they needed and a center fielder that can fly. They got what they needed to round out the roster.

Really Happy the Twins got a catcher. It was a major need and the price was right IMO. As someone else noted not all that far off from the Castro signing several years ago. This is a start now they just need to get Correa to sign on the dotted line and they can look for one more starter.

Some context is needed. Last year coming off the money losing pandemic season teams didn't seem as interested in handing out long term contracts. Other than Texas doing big money deals for Seagers and Semian. Correct me if I am wrong but I think Seagers was the only player last year to get a 300M contract in FA. All of last years contracts seem relatively modest compared to this year. Almost every trade rumors article about top Free Agents this year has the player making much more than predicted in total dollars and in years. So last year was a much different market and it looked like long term deals were a thing of the past until this year where a few teams are going past the penalties with indifference. Buxton's deal is light but he still hasn't made it through a full season. He might have gotten a better deal or he might have needed to bridge a new deal taking a one year higher AAV type deal to try and get past the injury issues. Given what happened last year that contract still looks fair to both sides to me. If Buxton was fairly guaranteed to stay healthy I might have a different view.

Don't forget the Twins have Austin Martin from the 2020 draft and there are other players like Severino, Urbina and possibly a few others depending on how they develop that might need to be added. Still to the OP's point with Sabato a likely bust and Solarie nothing to write home about the Twins should have an easier time not worrying about the rule V draft for the next several years. Remember they traded away most of their top 2021 draft picks so that could be a light year for adds as well. Depending on how things shake out a player like Lee and Prielipp and or anyone who excels from the 2022 class could find themselves on the 40 man sooner rather than later. The Twins still can make trades that net them guys that might need to be added sooner rather than later but will have to wait and see. At any rate as things stand we shouldn't have to worry too much about losing anyone important in the rule V for the next three years or so.

All I can tell you is they are all on the 40 man so if they aren't worthy of being depth then why do the Twins have them on there? Wallner, Larnach and Garlick all had 700 OPS's last year and Kepler had a 666 OPS so can those guys that haven't proved they belong do much worse than that? Even Kirilloff had a 650 OPS and he will get better in time if the wrist ever straightens out. Celestino has some work to do IMO but he is still depth as long as he is one the 40 man. Kepler has been injured himself over the years. It happens. Kepler was unproven at one time as well. Every player is unproven when they first start that doesn't mean they can't be good and won't make it or that they can't be better at the plate than Kepler. If you think they should just DFA the guys who haven't proved they belong then I might see your point otherwise yeah the FO believes they are legitimate depth. So I don't know that I understand your point.

Yeah Miami is very money conscious. More so that the Twins and Kep isn't exactly cheap. Betting they would prefer someone younger with more control at less cost. Maybe they could trade out salaries to get where need to be hard to say but I agree with you that Miami might be a tough sell for Kep.

He also plays infield though as well. He can play 2nd, 3rd and short in a pinch. That is all I meant he is not specifically outfield.