Dman

I think some of these decisions come down to if they sign Correa or not. The Twins have depth in the outfield with Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Wallner, Garlick and technically Gordon. I think the attractive thing for most teams with Max is he can be used as a centerfileder. He has the range and his offensive numbers play better as a centerfielder as well. Still his contract is almost up so not sure how much trade value he has? What can he realistically bring back that would make a difference? Not sure but something is probably better than nothing and given the young outfielder's we have there isn't really room for everyone as it is. We also have Celestino and Gordon to backup center at this time so the Twins can afford to trade him. I guess they would just need to find a return they can live with.

Yeah looking deeper if you trust the Trade Values site it would take Arraez and Larnach or Kirilloff to get that deal done. Or you could substitute Polanco for Arraez as he has more value somehow. Dang getting decent pitching is expensive.

I could see doing that for Polanco and some C level prospects in the 20 range in the system if needed. He is controlled for three more years and he had an 800 OPS in 2021 so both players had good 2021's and fell somewhat in 2022. Not sure Miami wants to take on Polanco's Salary so Twins might need to kick in some money. Still if they could build a package around Polanco I would be all for it. I would hate to trade Arraez for two years of Lopez because Arraez is fairly cheap and young and I think he might sign a reasonable extension. Still I can see why the Twins might do it as they have Lewis, Martin and Jullian pretty much ready to go next year with Lee not far behind. They also have Gordon who can be plugged in there. So they have a lot of second base depth and they need more and better pitching\pitchers. Still that only buys them two years and if he continues to be good there is no way they will sign him in Free Agency. If the Fish want Arraez the AL batting champ and controlled at a reasonable rate for three years. IMO they would need to kick in something on their end if they want the top bat in the AL.

I never liked the Rooker pick from the beginning. There were good pitching options there and he was so old for a prospect I was never on board. I talked myself into Sabato and Cavaco as being solid picks at the time. Although I wanted Carroll instead of Cavaco I still was willing to let it play out long term. In hindsight they talked themselves out of the better player. To keep things moving they need to not miss with that top 5 pick and they need to get more arms in the system. This is a strong draft pool they have a chance to reload. They generally always go bats with international signing so they should go with more arms in the draft IMO. Not saying they "have" to go arm at number 5 but then go arms through the top 10.

Well the Twins have missed on a fair number of hitters in the first round. Sabato, Rooker and Cavaco come to mind as some of their worst picks. I don't know why this FO doesn't like to take pitchers early but from what has been discussed on this board they seem to feel they can find workable arms in the later rounds but feel it is harder to find\develop bats from the later rounds. Since 2017 they have only taken one pitcher in the first round and that was Petty whom they promptly traded. I don't know what the stats are on pitchers taken in the top 5 versus hitters but given how analytically driven this FO is there must be some reason they prefer hitters versus pitchers in the 1st round.

All I have to go is what they have paid in the past. Last years 135M was the highest payroll they have ever had. Maybe that moves higher over time maybe not but right now they are just under the middle of the pack in MLB salary spending so they should be able to compete with bottom half of teams. Tougher to deal with teams that have the ability to spend 100M more though..

Yeah I tend to agree and now with Bogaerts going to SD he can create a bidding war with SF, Chicago and the Twins. I don't think he gets Judge money but Boras has put him in a good position to be the highest paid shortstop in the game. I don't know what the Twins plans for future payrolls are but if 130M is close to their max paying 35M per year to one player for ten years is probably fine short term (5 years or so) but after that it likely means not being able to sign some of the teams developed players that turn into stars or even very good players. I get the pressure to get Correa as they paid a price to get Gray, Mahle and to some extent Maeda and Paddock but I don't think that is enough pitching to compete in the playoffs and last year having Correa led to an under .500 team. Not sure the Twins "need" to take on that kind of risk but I know they really, really like the player and Correa enjoyed his time in Minnesota so who knows maybe the Twins are all in no matter what?

I do like Dollander best as I think he is a fast mover and the Twins need dominant pitching the thing is he seems unlikely to make it to number 5 with pitching needy Pittsburgh and Washington looking for ace level arms. The High School kid seems "Petty like" with better size and likely less reliever risk. He could fall to the Twins but there are some special bats at the top of this draft so there will be tough decisions to be made. Due to TINSTAPP There is not such thing as a pitching prospect) I see the Twins likely taking the safe route with a bat. They should be able to get a really good up the middle star type player (SS, CF) with less risk than banking on an arm holding up all the way to the Majors. Having said that the Twins are in desperate need of difference making arms and if they feel really good about a couple of these pitchers given the state of the farm now would be the time to take that kind of risk. I guess we will know more about what they decide to do after the draft but from what I can see they have excellent options picking at number 5 pretty much no matter how the board falls. IMO the top 9 to 10 of this draft looks pretty good and then starts to fall off a little. Twins just need to choose wisely in their spot. Even at 34 they should be able to get a very good player they just need to pick well and I feel like they need to replenish the pitching pipeline so would like to see more pitchers than position players selected this coming draft.

Not that it matters but no one else in our division seems to be in on any big names this year either. It's not an excuse for our FO to do nothing but there is steep competition for the high end FA players and if signing one means eating 30% of our payroll for 10 years that feels a bit risky to me. They are going after the same player that led the team to an under .500 record. I don't think he is enough of a difference maker to make a difference for the amount of money they want to invest. This team needs much better pitching to compete in the division and the playoffs. This is a team with lot's of potential hitters close to ready but little to no difference making arms on the farm. If they want to focus on something that will make the whole team better it should be pitching. I like Correa and certainly won't be upset if the Twins sign him but I also think there are other ways to get to where the team needs go without Correa as well. In fact IMO they might be better off without him in the end. At any rate I am looking at this either scenario as a win\win no matter the outcome.

Yeah gotta believe Correa is the highest paid shortstop in the league after this is over. San Fran can afford to pay and what's not to like about the west coast weather? Bogaerts and the Red Sox are still talking and I have to believe are the favorites to sign him as he is settled in there. Looking at the market they have to know what it will take. Guessing they were hoping to bridge to their shortstop draft pick to not have to spend money but if they want to compete this coming year they need Bogaerts. We will see what their appetite is for going long term with him. Otherwise it sure looks like the Cubs will grab him. It feels like the Twins will be on the outside looking in once again unless Correa really, really likes it here..

Yeah I think Dollander if he remains dominant has a good chance to go number 1. Pittsburgh can't play in FA for pitchers so will need to draft arms to get there. Nats could use pitching too but they are a wild card as they could use everything. I think they are more set at position players than pitching so they could go pitching with their top pick(s) as well.

I like the Shortstop with power the best even if he moves off of short the hitting profile looks really, really good. Call me crazy but I also really like 80 graded speed of the centerfielder even if he doesn't have a power stroke right now. We have seen with Buxton that even elite centerfield defense can be a real difference maker and this guy looks like he has a solid bat just likely not much power. I agree there looks to be lots of really good options for the top 5. There are a couple of pitchers who could move into the top 5 as well. This should be a really exciting draft for the Twins.

Wow, when does a MN sports team get lucky enough to move up 8 spots? That is crazy cool. So they get a top 5 pick in 2023 as well as number 34 or so. I was kind of hoping they would go pitcher at 13 and 34 but since they moved up it probably will be another bat at number 5. If they do take a bat again would really like to see the next three picks go to pitchers. They need to replenish the farm after trading some of their better arms at the deadline. Still hoping they go pitcher heavy in the 2023 draft but really, really nice to have a top 5 pick.

Kind of surprised there is this much movement this early in Free Agency. Past years it seemed like it took forever for the first domino to fall.

I can't see Correa signing until Judge signs but it sounds like the Giants have the money for Judge or Correa maybe even both if they want to stretch the payroll. Hopefully he likes Minnesota enough to work out a deal but the odds still feel long to me. I can't say I love the 10 year high AAV deals for players as they turn on the team faster than you would like but it would be nice to have short solved for the next five to 6 years. At least the Twins are actually in this one.

I can see another team taking him but I don't think he will stick. As noted by others the control just isn't there and while he can hit triple digits he can't seem to control his stuff and he has tendency to groove fastballs to stay in the strike zone which tend to fall for hits. So between giving up hits at about one per innings plus all the walks he seems like a long shot to go in Rule V to me. A team could take flyer to see if they can "fix" anything but unless he makes some significant improvements I don't see him in the majors now and maybe never.

I think given his size and the fact he has a fastball he can run into the upper 90's he looks like a much needed bullpen arm to me. This bullpen can use more high octane arms and if he is ready he could mix well with Duran and Alcala. If he does well in the pen they could throw him into a rotation spot in 2024 when Gray, Maeda and Mahle might no longer be with the club. Sale started as a bullpen arm so they could still work him in as a starter after using him in the bullpen if they think that makes sense down the road.

I think they might try for Correa but whatever numbers they throw up there another team will exceed them. This team doesn't do long term deals so I think the odds of one of the big name shortstops coming here is pretty unlikely. Personally I think they will try and follow the Cleveland Blue Print. Try to go young and hope a decent number of those young players hit. I think Plan A is most likely. Lewis and Lee are their top two prospects for goodness sake and they both can play short. Maybe not at an elite level but they can play it. I have to believe they will give them every opportunity to work out there. They also have Martin who could play there in a pinch. Jullien and Wallner are bats on the rise and Rodriquez could be a fast mover as well. That doesn't even include Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach and Celestino as young bats still trying to make names for themselves. Not everybody is going to make it but if 50% do that will put the team in a good spot. Correa liked it in Minnesota so there is always a chance I just don't like the odds. Also for as good as Correa is he didn't help this team make the playoffs. I just don't think I like the idea of a player that isn't "that" great a difference maker taking up 20 to 25% of the salary space on this team. Cleveland doesn't have a single player except Ramerez making much of anything and they took the division and have space to add if they want to. That is a position I would prefer to be in. I think Farmer is a decent compromise at this point. We need our young pitching to turn out some better than average arms or it won't really matter what the Twins do at shortstop. For proof just look at last year.

With Urshela pretty exclusively a third baseman I always felt like moving him made sense. Getting someone who can legit play short is an ideal swap IMO. They also get a younger pitching prospect from the Angels to replace the older Legumina and gain a 40 man spot. There is a lot of value in this trade for the Twins. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the offseason shakes out but I think this is a decent start. Hopefully more of the younger pitching prospects the Twins have on the 40 man show they can be difference makers next year.

Sorry 26 I must moved my finger over one.

The first three were no brainers to me. Jullien is everything you want in a bat and Canterino when healthy is very to tough to hit and gets K's in bunches. Headrick is big Lefty with starter potential who could also be a pen arm if needed. The team is short on Lefties so I can see why Headrick was appealing. I really liked what Sisk did last year. The stat sheet looked good and there wasn't much difference in performance between AA and AAA. He didn't give up a ton of HR's I guess I don't understand why they wouldn't make room for him? I would prefer him over any rule V guy they decide to grab. Lawyerson had a really good year stat wise as well he had a serious dominant stretch but his fastball isn't that fast so he would have to be a finesse starter and or reliever. So I can see the hesitation. Things could fall apart for him at AAA but he looks like someone with a chance as a reliever IMO. If you look on MLB.com though Legumina is rated at 26 and Sisk and Lawyerson are not in the top 30. Legumina has a legit 4 pitch mix and the potential devastating slider the Twins love so I guess it makes sense they added him. Still his stats from last year are ugly. I hope this isn't another Strotman type pitcher taking up space. I know position players generally don't get taken that often in rule V because teams just can't afford to carry those players all year and Severino isn't fast, doesn't have amazing power numbers and isn't a defensive wizard. The bat is his carrying tool but is that enough for another team to keep him on the 27 man? I would be hard pressed to say yes. I think you can wave goodbye to Evan Sisk as that is a risk I can see any bottom team taking. Possible that Lawyerson and or Funderburk get taken but I have to believe there are better arms out there to choose from but who knows. The power Chris Williams showed last year could get him picked by a bottom team but he had a pretty large drop off from AA to AAA. I might be alone on this but I really like Anthony Prato as a utility player and I think he could stick on a MLB roster and be valuable but that might be a reach. In summary I am OK with the 4 guys they chose. I like Sisk better than Legumina but I will trust they see more potential in the righty. As always it will be interesting to see what teams do in Rule V and I hope none of our guys get picked.

I like that they generally go high with outfield prospects in international Free Agency then they don't need to focus on that position as much in the Draft. Still the Twins could use more centerfield help in the system but speed seems to be an after thought tool for them. If those are the three guys they get it looks pretty balanced this year with outfield catcher and short. Last years high picks did well and I hope the guys they get this year do just as well or better.

IMO if it looks like he can handle AAA then just keep him in AAA. If he stops hitting then sure send him back down. It is a small sample size but he doesn't look lost at that level and as others have said if the Twins want him to be a legit prospect they need to move him fast because he is already 24. Happy to see him hit the ground running and maybe he turns out to be better than most of us gave him credit for.

Yeah I meant the series my bad.

Although SWR's numbers look slightly better Varland was the right choice as he pitched all year pretty much without interruption. His consistency along with a slightly better K rate makes him stand out more to me. SWR is right there with him though which is a good thing. It sure would be nice if those two could be front line starters along with Ryan. Congrats to Louie who has worked his butt off and taken the title again.