Dman

I think it is his job to lose at this point. Walking a couple an inning can turn into a disaster right quick. In the minors I have watched him walk the bases loaded. Not something you want to do against the best hitters in the world. The thing he does have going for him is HR suppression. I think that alone may allow them to live with his apparent natural wildness at times. It kind of feels like now or never for him anyway so they should just give him his shot and see how it all works out.

It is going to be interesting to see how Jullien adjusts with 2 strikes. I can't tell with any real accuracy but both calls looked close according to the gameday app. He has a reputation now so I think once pitchers get to strike 2 they are going to stay on the edges with him. Should be some good cat and mouse there once he see's the trend. I know the odds were a bit long with Megill to start with for a pen job as I wasn't convinced about him being consistent last year. I know it is just one game and guys can blow up in a game at any time in the season but that was far worse than I was expecting. To make matters worse Headrick literally faced the Phillies starting lineup and gave up no runs. Megill was essentially against AAA or lessor guys and blew up. I mean he had all offseason to get ready if this is "who" he is it doesn't look good right now. Still plenty of time to get back in the mix but he sure put himself in a tough spot this spring. Again super small sample size and none of these things are trends yet as guys are ramping up and working on things. However, Laweryson was pretty impressive with his lower 90's fastball striking out all three batters faced with no walks and no hits allowed. Granted against lessor competition but impressive non the less. Can't get too worked up about stats in spring but helps the confidence level when guys appear to be doing well.

He has a big fastball and a slider so not too surprised the Twins are going to see how he does or if they can pass him through waivers. Given the way Megill pitched today guys with control problems don't really excite me much. Lawyerson can barley get his fastball into the 90's. Three K's, no hits, no walks. Granted against the B or C squad but still he hit his spots when he needed to. You can throw it 100MPH but if it is straight or you can't get it over the plate when you need to it doesn't really matter. Hopefully Santana is a tweak away and the Twins get another power arm.

Loving the updates and the insight! Keep'em coming.

I don't know what his specific swing issues are but he has a good eye at the plate. Generally patient hitters get good pitches to hit he just seems to have trouble barreling up balls and or missing them entirely and striking out. I have been negative on the pick since they took him as I didn't like the pick of a bat only player in the 1st round. I am tired of being negative about Sabato and hoping he can find a way to better contact secondary pitches and not just need fastballs to be successful. There are some large holes in his swing but if he can narrow those he has the other skills to be a good hitter. Hoping for a breakout year and he will be in a hitters league so no better time to get things moving in the right direction.

I just hope the bat and eye at the plate translate well at the MLB level. He still K's a fare bit so I still have minor contact concerns. If he keeps up his current pace for yet another year he looks like an elite bat to me. His current level of patience\eye at the plate\power is pretty unique and valuable IMO. Defense is another story as I don't know if he can be average anywhere on the field but if he can again that makes him very valuable if everything translates to MLB. Hoping for a great year from him and that he gets some chances with the big league club.

There is a lot to like about Steer. He has a good eye at the plate. A good K rate. He hits for a decent average with power. His defense should be solid at 2nd or 3rd and he could probably play left if needed. He is a good player that could over achieve to great but will have to wait and see. Still Lewis's skills and ability to play premium positions makes him far more valuable than Steer could ever be. Lewis just has such a short track record due to injury there isn't much to go on except SSS. The hit tool has to work out for his value to increase right now and there isn't enough to go on to project it IMO. Still IMO Steer will never match Lewis's Speed, arm, defensive flexibility so Lewis will always be better unless of course he becomes so injured he can't play and or his bat goes belly up. In a perfect world Lewis would have enough time last year to be off prospect lists but alas here we are with the same uncertainty we have had with him for years.

Have to say I was surprised by his response in the article as it seems to me it would have been very easy to blame the Twins org for the poor year. I think you nailed it for the reason why he didn't blame the Twins. They do all know that teams want players with hitting skill and power. Those players move the fastest and make the most money. I am sure he welcomed what ideas might help him achieve that. He tried some things they didn't work out and he is back to who he is more traditionally as a hitter. I think with a few tweaks to his current approach he could find more doubles power but I don't know if he ever will hit many HR's. First things first he needs his swagger\confidence back and then maybe they can look at what more power in that approach might look like.,

FWIW Martin never once blamed the Twins for anything. He put the responsibility for the suggested changes on his own shoulders. It sounded like they will still look for ways to improve power but want him to be "who he is" as a hitter right now. He seems to be a reactionary hitter to me and my take on the article was he was thinking too much when selling out for power. It sounded to me like they will have to find another way for him to use power within that reactionary structure as what they tried just wasn't going to work. He mentions being a utility player with his approach and being pesky on the bases. it was a great article and I like his odds to do well this year.

If Rodriguez is still a prospect in 2025 I would go with him but I think he will be on the team by then. My pick is Mercedes. He could be a five tool player and those are hard to come by. Long way to go but he looks like the total package to me so he is my pick. I like Raya a lot as well. His pitch movement is crazy good. I can see why the Twins are so high on him but pitchers are hard to predict and I still am not sold the arm will hold up. If it does he could be number 1, but too many if's for me. Same with Prielipp haven't even seen him throw one pitch so nothing to base anything off of yet. He could be number 1, but again tons of unknown's. Not ready to commit to him yet. I really Like Salas but with the bat dropping off at high A and not much power I don't see him in the number one spot without some sort of huge breakout. Maybe he can do it but I like the odds for Mercedes and Rodriguez better.

FWIW I grabbed this out of the MLB Trade Rumors chat and the Arraez comparison is compelling. Arraez is better especially from a war perspective but Solano looks like a decent replacement for the lost Arraez production. Have to take those number with a grain of salt though as Arraez is ascending and Solano's Production declined last year. He is 35 after all. Still I think it helps us see where the FO was coming from grabbing him especially when he works so well in a platoon. Habeto 5 hours ago Well, let’s see. They both play primarily 2B, but they also can play 1B and 3B on a pinch. Pretty similar. Slightly below average runners. But let’s skip to the good part: Looking at career numbers after 2019 (ever since Arraez started and Solano suddenly regained his stroke), some interesting numbers: 1. Slash line: S: .301/.350/.421-18HR in 1079 PAs A: .314/.374./410-14HR in 1569 PAs 2. BABIP: S:.362 and A: .336. 3. WAR: S: 4.9 and A: 10.4 4. OPS+: S: 109 and A: 120 5. Solano has better platoon splits, while Arraez fares well against any hand. Although you can argue Arraez has yet to reach his peak and Solano is on his way out of the Majors, their last 4 seasons compared haven’t been that different.

Very nice! high quality content for caretakers. Other guys are missing out.

Yeah they might still move Kepler but it seemed they weren't getting the value they wanted earlier and if they do play Kepler, Gallo, Buxton against righties the defense in the outfield is plus, plus. So the return would have be something good to give that scenario up IMO. If they couldn't get someone to pay earlier not sure there has been enough time for things to change all that much. They can afford to move a left handed outfield bat if they want to, but I don't think they will sell for pennies on the dollar. I don't think they are in a place where they "have" to move somebody especially given all the injuries they seem to suffer through the year. Still moving a left handed outfield bat does better balance the roster and would give them more room to make further moves.

It is a solid depth move especially from a platoon perspective. I was advocating for one more right handed bat, but I guess I got stuck on it being a platoon 1st baseman in Guriel. So getting a guy who can hit lefties and play 1st, 2nd and 3rd probably is a better fit for a depth guy. Still I was kind of hoping to see Larnach this year and looks like he will be the odd man out to start the season. Probably not for long as someone will get injured at some point but I think there was collective surprise\disappointment with what this signing meant for Trevor. A trade could still be a possibility as well but seems like a long shot to me. It is a good move IMO just surprising is all.

Yeah this is puzzling, Solano was not on the radar at all. I thought they might sign Gurriel to platoon at first base and or DH but maybe the asking price was too high or the Twins like Solano's position flexibility better? Or maybe he is Polanco knee insurance, but I kind of thought that was what Castro was for with Jullien or Lewis as possibilities later in the year. I think this signing is fine for depth especially if they fear Polanco is going to need extra time off but it seems a bit off to me. I am guessing it will make more sense over time. They did add another righty bat that I was clamoring for and he is a contact hitter (career K% 18%) so I probably should be happy and yet somehow I am a little confused by this move.

Yeah Wilson would be a great Arraez replacement and he would be a better runner with a better arm and more position flexibility as well. Not sure why but right now most have Gonzalaz ahead of him. If Wilson shows more power this year he probably won't make it to number 5.

Jeremy curious if you know if this is a fairly deep class for pitching? Will have to see how the pitcher's do and if they get injured but those three appear to be the best at the moment. I am starting to be torn on what the Twins should do at number 5. If those 3 pitchers pan out there is a good chance one of them falls to 5. Still there are 5 to 7 hitters that are really good and I like the top 4 hitters a lot (Crews, Clark, Langford, Wilson for me). Beyond that Gonzalez, Jenkins Bradford. The Twins would have gotten a good player all the way down at 13 this year if you ask me they just would have had to have taken what was left. They need to pick well because I doubt they get back to number 5 anytime soon. I still think they will go with a bat as there are some really good ones at the top. Arms are just so tough to gauge but if you want an elite power arm the top is a good place to get one. I like Dollander's pitch mix but Skene's has had a monster start so far. Waldrep I am not sold on just yet but he has the pitches to change my mind. I still think one of the top two pitchers goes to Washington as they need pitching and it should be there for them at the top this year. Pittsburgh should go elite pitcher in my mind as it is the only way for them to grab an ace but they could grab Crews and then trade Reynolds for more established pitching from another teams farm. So they have options. Detroit could use more outfield depth in their system but if Dollander or Skene's is there that could be their next Verlander type pitcher. Texas took pitching last year and they could use more outfield depth as well. Still it is hard to say how this draft will fall. At any rate I don't envy the Twins as they will have about 6 guys or so worthy at number 5. Hopefully they grab the right one.

I still had Lewis as my number 1 prospect this year. He is a 5 tool player with incredible versatility. Last year he got me believing in his bat so I think as everyone has said it just comes down to Royce staying healthy at this point. If the Twins can get some of these younger players to break through at the MLB level this is gonna be a fun team to watch for a while.

You need a bit more context there as Gordons OPS+ versus Lefties is 53. Both Farmer 163 OPS+ and Taylor 90 OPS+ are better against lefties and that was the main reason they were brought in. Kepler's splits are pretty even and he plays excellent D in right field. Gallo was useless against lefties last year with a 27 OPS+. He was much better in 2021 and his 129 OPS+ against righties was OK but if he can't improve in lefty on lefty matchups he needs to be eliminated when Lefties pitch. That being said I don't completely disagree with you. I don't see a ton of room for Gordon this year but injuries could change that. Gallo will be gone next year and Kepler might be as well. Taylor might not be back. Things could open up for Nick just hard to say how it all plays out.. Otherwise I agree they should trade him. He is a good contact hitter and super utility player that can even cover centerfield. Lot's of teams would value that.

Yeah I think it was $20.00 extra and I paid it every year but I never watched a ton of games as I just don't have that much time. Still it was nice to watch some of the breakout prospects and especially pitchers to see how they looked live. I think you are right though they want everyone to pay for that service as I am sure it costs money to maintain it. Even if only $10.00 more this year it is a way to get extra money and sell it as a feature. I use it so no big deal either way to me but for those who would never watch MiLB games it just adds to the cost.

Wow that was a really nice piece! Really liked what you did there. Should share that with everyone! Not just caretakers as it is too limited a forum and that should be seen by more people.

Didn't see that coming but I guess when your slugging is 500 to 600 every year the shift doesn't seem to be as large a problem. Great analysis though. Like I said I never picked up on it. How great would that be if Buck upped his average a little.

I am going to go with Ben Ross. He had hit .400 pretty much everywhere he went (granted he didn't play D1 Ball) and he had a solid pro debut. I think he could be 1st round special but will have to wait and see, For someone who has been in the system at least one year I am going to go with Miller. He has the eye at the plate. He has great defense. He just needs to get more solid contact. I think he does that this year and vaults his way into the top 10 Twins prospect list. My longshot pick would be Daulton Shuffield. They threw him to the sharks at AAA last year and he hit the ball as well a lot of more seasoned guys there. Probably not room for him to start the season there but he could break out no matter where they put him. He looks like a legit bat to me even if he is an older first time prospect. This really is a crazy ask though as this system has lot's guys that could be poised for big breakouts. In Short season ball you have Nova, Chourio, Cruz, Acuna, Pena, Daniel and Ortiz not even counting Mercedes and Rodriguez who have had mini breakouts. At A ball Rosario, Olivar, Miller, Ross, Cossetti, Biaz, Shobel and Pena. On the pitching side Prielipp, Mcleod, Morris and Lewis. The list could go on and on and I didn't even include High A to AAA. There really are a lot of player with good potential to break out all over the system but baseball is hard. Injuries and weaknesses that slow players development (or kill it) can be hard to overcome. Will be fun to watch and see who has an Emmanual Rodriguez type of year. As you can tell I am bullish on a ton of players this year.

Loving the updates! Lot's of good questions being asked and it is cool to get players insight into things. Really appreciate the inside scoop. Thanks!

Looking back at his stats he never was a strike out pitcher he was more of a pitch to contact pitcher with batters driving it into the ground. The only problem he had IMO was he had no put away pitch. Guys would foul lots of stuff off and he could end up with high pitch counts and long innings. If he can't use the sinker anymore I have no idea who he is as a pitcher. Many players have reinvented themselves to great success in this game and Randy is a worker so I wouldn't count him out. If the finger holds up I like his chances in the pen. With his finger issue can't see him putting extra strain on it starting. As far as the money goes when he came in that spring he looked like he had found his K pitch and might be a dominant pitcher. The contract was a small risk for potential great gain for the Twins. Randy had beaten the odds all the way to MLB it didn't seem prudent to bet against him. Injuries happen to lots of players and this contract risked peanuts compared to most. I didn't think it was terrible at the time in fact I thought Dobnak might be selling himself short. So far it has worked out better for Randy than the Twins but that happens all the time in baseball especially with pitchers (just ask the Dodgers). I bet against Randy pretty much all the way up the ladder and ridiculed the Twins for using him so much in A ball and then he took off. One thing I learned was never bet against Randy Dobnak. This time I am betting on the comeback.