Dman

Yep I agree with you. I don't think he has great fastball velocity and I know literally nothing about his secondary stuff. I just thought it a bit odd that the numbers at the exact same level and same time could be so close and they are rated vastly different. If Seth reads this maybe he can fill me in. Thanks for the well thought out response!

It doesn't look like Miranda will be an elite defender at third but his arm can't be any worse than Arraez's was. Last I checked he checked in with a average (50) arm on MLB.com. He is a 40 runner so range is an issue though lot's of stuff hit to third comes in hard. Still hopefully the slimmed down version is ready for those slow rollers as well. I don't know how he will do at third but we are going to find out. I guess I still don't see the angst about Urshela. Farmer replaced him and he can play third if Miranda can't hold it down. Nice thing about Farmer over Urshela is he can hold down short, 2nd, catcher and left if needed. Urshela can't do that. Might lose a bit on the bat with Farmer but if he is platooned properly he can make up for some of that. Given the roster and the guys coming up Urshela didn't seem like a great fit to me and the Twins must have felt the same way. They might not be ready this year but Lewis and Lee are hopefully not that far away and could take over at third if Miranda can't hold it down. The Twins obviously feel Miranda can get the job done or else he would be at 1st base already likely in some sort of platoon role with Kirilloff between 1st and DH. They must not like that idea thus they are playing him at third. Like I said I don't see him as a plus defender at third but I think he can hold his own there and if the bat plays like last year or better he is fine there IMO. I don't think playing MIranda at third is a misstep but with so little to go on will have to wait and see.

Excellent article! Thanks!

I love Varland and what he has done. Absolutely amazing story and just a great man giving it everything he has to get this far. NIck that was a brutally honest assessment of Varland and I agree with it. Just for reference below are last years 2022 AA numbers for Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk. Their numbers are very similar with Varland having a better K rate and WHIP and Funderburk with the better ERA and FIP. One of these pitchers is rated in Minnesota's top 10 the other isn't even mentioned in the top thirty. What does that tell me? One of these players is either overrated or underrated. I am rooting hard for Varland even if he is a 5th starter as we need controllable pitchers that can take the mound every turn and provide Quality work. Here's hoping Louie is a Twin and in the rotation for a good long time.

He is pretty under rated. I know I don't always appreciate him as much as I should. Gonna be an interesting year this year to see how the players behind him do. Twins might need Polo one more year after this one but will have to wait and see. The Guardian's playbook would have him traded while he can return something of value. Have to wait and see how the Twins play it.

That first pic looks like a more open stance and with the bat close that looks like a good short to the ball all fields approach to my amateur eye. The second looks just a little more closed but not that much different to me. I can't say I have ever seen the stance in the third picture. It almost looks like he is cocking that foot back to make sure his hips gain some whip and the bat is further back so it seems like that would be more geared toward more power but again I am not a professional so just my personal questioning observations. Maybe we will see more power out of Martin in the future but to this point he has been more of an all fields slap hitter with a good eye at the plate. He hasn't cracked .400 slugging in full season ball yet but a power breakout would be nice. Still I am fine if he gets on base at his fairly normal .400 clip as well. We have seen how valuable that can be as well.

He could be a sort of Arraez type player with speed. A tough out who can take walks and makes contact as he only struck out at a 13% Clip. For teams looking for contact hitters along with working counts he is rock solid there. He also has been able to steal bases so his speed plays as well. He needs a good year at the plate as his value is now tied up in OBP IMO. Still we all know what a catalyst Arraez could be and while the current trend is power we are starting to see cracks in that line of thinking as contact seems to be making a comeback. He is a nice piece of the puzzle if he can put things together and just excel at what he does well which is get on base.

I was hoping for the Twins to double down on pitching with that pick but they went with a bat they all really liked. They saw that he could sell out for power when he picked his spots and he already had good contact skills and I think those are players they like to work with. They have to be betting on his hit tool to make this pick work. In time he might be a player that keeps his walks and K's pretty even and if he does tack on power to his solid contact skills I think he could be a solid MLB second baseman. That is a lot of hopeful projection on my part but that had to be the plan when they picked him.

If the Twins were keeping Kepler I can't see myself defending them grabbing Gallo. Most of the baseball world didn't understand that move without the Twins moving a left handed outfield bat. I guess I don't completely understand comparing Gallo to Urshela though. It should be a Gallo, Kepler comparison straight up if you ask me. I thought Urshela's replacement was Farmer who could actually play shortstop as well as other positions. he was a right handed bat just like Urshela with more positional flexibility at a cheaper cost. Gallo had nothing to do with that move IMO. While it might be nice to have Gio's right handed bat the cost seems high for a likely 1st base DH type player with Farmer likely getting first dibs in the field. I didn't care for the return the Twins got but I thought it was a solid decision to move on from Urshela if they used the extra money wisely. I don't know if signing Gallo would be considered using it wisely but obviously the FO thinks so.

I am already sold on Miller's defense so he has a utility role pretty much wrapped up with just slight improvement with the bat. Still he graded out with plus contact skills at the plate in the draft and while a 23% K rate isn't bad you would think a guy with plus bat to ball skills would be in the mid teens for K rate. He was only 19 and put on a show the first month with an .800 OPS so he can do it. I kind of wonder if they had him working on increasing his bat speed or something to gain more power and if that affected him or maybe he just got worn down. Hard to say but he will still only be 20 next year and I am bullish on his bat coming around. I got to see Festa late in the season at Beloit and he didn't look particularly dominant that night and yet when you look at the box score he did pretty well. I am not sold that thin body can hold up to rotation work but will have to wait and see. He is going to need more polish to make it up the levels IMO. Still you can't argue with the fastball speed and solid slider or his results from last year.. Another year should tell us whether pen or rotation I would think. I hate to get too worked up over DSL numbers as when most of those guys get to the FCL they really struggle. Still Mercedes offers a possible plus hit tool, plus power and plus run skills. If the arm improves maybe a plus arm so a borderline 5 tool player. That would be a nice get if he turns out. If he keeps somewhat similar numbers at the FCL then the Twins did well to find him as he will be a fast mover. Have to wait and see it could take a year or two to adjust to the better pitching he will face. I have been low man on Wallner for a long time. The K rate was too much for me to take. He is finally starting to make a believer out of me. He has been taking his walks and it seems that has helped him tremendously. He has brought his K rate down to 30% still not ideal but better than it has been and OPS up. He was an absolute monster at AA even after a horrid start. AAA showed there is still more work to be done. While his .840 OPS there was very good if he wants to make the jump to MLB it will need to better. Main thing to me is that he is improving and can be a viable MLB player whereas before I was getting concerned he might be a bust. Out of this list I like the two guys the farthest away. I think that if those bat to ball skills return Miller could be a standout player. I am hoping he come out hot and keeps it going this coming season. If Mercedes hangs around those DSL numbers he probably is going to be a star player. Even if he fails some at the FCL he is young for the level and wouldn't be a bust just maybe not quite ready yet. This is a good solid list but all these players have something to prove next year.

He was an amazing scout IMO. A big part of Twins history. He will be missed. R.I.P. Mike.

I still remember the article they put out on Buxton when he was the minors. Man that one had me in stiches and even though satire it seemed real enough and the comments were wild on that one. I can't remember what it said but something about coaches wanting Buxton to stop at second instead of taking third on doubles because it wasn't fair to the other team or some such thing. That had to be one of his best all time.

I would also add that I would like to see what he can do as a starter coming back. In 2020 wasn't he essentially in the conversation for the Cy Young award? That was a short year and I get we all are worried about his arm holding up but it seems prudent to see if he is the same or close to same starting pitcher as 2020 which would be better than Ober IMO. They both have questions about how many innings they can throw but I would give Maeda the chance first if it were me.

Our best two potential home grown starters Ober and Winder both seem like they might not be able to hold up to a starters load which is disappointing. On the other hand moving them could really strengthen the pen. Still not sure where our starters are going to come from then. Varland seems viable maybe SWR but he has been another arm that seems to wear down as the season goes on. From there you are hoping Balazovich and or Enlow can bounce back otherwise you are waiting on Festa and Raya with Prielipp a bit further behind yet. Hopefully things break the Twins way for starters at some point. They should start with 2023 draft by drafting more pitchers than position players. Looks like we have some pretty cool options for the pen if they can perform there.

I am not as sold on Urbina especially since there is talk that might need to move out of centerfield. The bat has been ok but no real breakout. Any chance you can fill me in on what you see to rank him at 15?

Some of the guys in the top 10 would have gotten knocked down here if we still had Petty, Povich, Hajjar, Steer and CES. The Twins needed\wanted MLB players so there went part of the farm. Seems like the system is still ranked around the middle of the pack so not too bad. We are going to need to have players step up out of no where to get back into the top 10 though. Hopefully this 2023 draft ends up a good one.

I don't necessarily disagree but I think Mike is right. Since no other team wanted to make it worth their while the Twins need to make sure Kirilloff is truly healthy. That Larnach is the same Larnach after coming back from injury. If Gallo doesn't rebound they have another player to use in right. Still lot's of things can happen between now and the start of the season. Guys go down in Spring training all the time. Kepler might look really good this spring and some other team might feel they really, really need a player like that. The Twins traded Rogers just before the season the same could happen with Kepler if the Twins decide Kirilloff, and Larnach look ready to go. In your worst case scenario if Kepler doesn't turn things around, then around June, Larnach or someone else will replace him anyway. At that point once his projection is a known quantity they can try and trade him for a bucket of balls or bench him. I think there is still time for the Twins to get a deal done before the season starts but a team would need to be willing to pay the price the Twins feel he should be valued at. If not I think they are doing the prudent thing especially given what happened last year. Roll with the extra depth and see how things shake out. It is likely 3 months of development time lost max.

I remember looking at the DSL box scores last year and thinking I don't remember guys hitting this many home runs there. I believe others echoed the same thing. I can't remember a guy with that kind of power right out of the gates in the DSL. Even Sano didn't start hitting them that often until he got to Elizabethton. I don't know how much projection is left but that is already really good power. While he had good plate discipline in the DSL I still think the FCL will set him back as the pitching is much better there. If he masters the zone though this kid could be a super star. Probably right there with Emmanial Rodriguez except from the other side of the plate. If those guys turn out having righty, lefty mashers would be really fun to watch. I think Nick is right when the Twins looked at Schobel they saw Brian Dozier. Likely a plus defensive second baseman with enough pull side power to make him dangerous. We will see if he can pull it off. Not horrible numbers for his first time out but I am hoping for bigger things next year. The guy I am rooting for the most in this list is Henriquez. If he can keep that fastball around 98 coming out of the pen with his two slightly plus secondary's he could be an 8th inning, 9th inning stopper reliever. He could really solidify the pen if he can stop giving up the HR balls. The Twins are finally getting some high octane bullpen arms and I think that could really help them become a shut down pen. Hopefully Henriquez finds a Santana like debut this year. Have to believe Jordon can come back and be better. Have no idea what happened last year but it does happen. Hopefully he takes the offseason to rework his mind and body to gain the control he needs to be successful. Canterino could be another big arm in this pen once he gets going again. Control will be key for him as well but really not much to say until next year.

Twins have room to keep him so not a huge deal other than the money at this point. I agree with others that there is no reason to trade him for a Michael Taylor return if that is all that is out there. He has more value than than that to his current team. If his offense returns that value could increase dramatically as well. Also agree that if he performs at an average level he should bring more back at the deadline than right now. If there is room why not just wait unless blown away by an offer?

Loved Smeltzer and he was perfect in a pinch but he isn't ever going to be dominant. He is an excellent get to stash at AAA but going to the Marlins seems a bit cruel as they are so deep in pitching it is hard to see him getting MLB chances there. Maybe they move him to the pen and hope he can be Thielbar like. Wishing him the best.

You look at it and they have Lopez, Duran and Jax as solid top end pen arms. Thielbar might be close to that group as well. Question marks with Alcala, Pagan and Megill. They could be good, bad or somewhere in between. That leaves them with Henriquez, Sands, and Moran which should be solid lower end options for 6th, 7th inning. If needed they can also use Winder in the pen. Off the 40 man they have Coulombe and Dobnak as possible pen arms and Schulfer or Laweryson might also be options if they start out well in AAA. So they have a fair bit of depth for the pen right now. If disaster struck they could use Varland and SWR in that role for a while as well. So I guess I can see Falvey's point. Unless they are going to add a top end arm which they don't like to pay for then they probably don't need to add unless a deal they really like comes along. They will use at least 2 if not all 3 of the roster spots that come available. Hopefully one for another right handed bat and the other two for waiver claims on borderline 40 man pitchers that get waived as teams pick up more players as spring training nears. Or maybe, just maybe they find a guy they like for the right price and they sign him.

Nice write up Doc!

I wasn't particularly happy with the Noah Miller pick myself but it is a bit early to label him as just a utility infielder or a bust. Right now if you go to MLB.Com you will see he is rated 17th and I don't think they are too embarrassed about it. Fangraphs has him ranked 4th in 2022 they don't have 2023 out yet so they have to be crazy embarrassed about what grade they gave Miller. I don't know if you got to see Miller in Spring training last year but his defense looked essentially MLB ready to me. He looked poised for 19 years old, gobbled up grounders and set his feet well for good solid throws. I don't think defense will be an issue for him. His bat was problematic in A ball last year with a .211 average quality contact was lacking. Slugging of .279 anemic. The .627 OPS far from ideal. Positives on Offense were his walk rate was excellent and having a good eye at the plate usually leads to better pitches to hit. His K rate at 23% was not a huge issue either so he can make contact unfortunately it was weak contact. His .348 OBP is really good for the league but with little to no power and lots of easy outs he didn't have a quality year on offense last year. Here's the rub though. A ball is generally where all the recently drafted college kids start out and they have had two years of college ball to help them adjust to that level. They are bigger and stronger and have more experience at higher levels of competition than Miller played against especially in a cold weather state. The odds of him hanging with those players was slim to begin with. He will only be 20 next year with a full year of pro ball behind him. I think we can expect better things from him next year. He should be stronger and there should be fewer surprises for him next year. He doesn't have contact issues and has a good eye at the plate. There is still reason to be bullish on his future. Yep I know Rodriguez killed that league at 19 last year and he has a bright future but that doesn't mean Miller can't come around and figure things out yet. It was his first year of pro ball and he was up against more experienced competition. Let's give him another year or two and see how much his offense improves before worrying about ranking him too high or too low. FWIW he has dropped in the rankings from around top 10 to lower teens so there is some concern among evaluators.

I am in the give Joey Gallo a chance bucket and am hoping he does well enough to turn down a QO at the end of the season giving the Twins an extra draft choice. Still I understand where several posters are coming from. Seeing the bases loaded and Gallo up next and he strikes out is tough to watch. When players don't even put the ball in play there is no chance to score runs. It is probably the ultimate downer to not even give your team a chance in that situation. But yes I am with you on your premise. If Arraez gets on with a single and no other player gets a hit or moves him over nothing happens. If Joey Gallo gets a hit and it is a HR his singular hit impacted the game significantly more thus OPS tells a more complete story. Still clutch hits are sooo important and so needed on this team that likes to find ways not to score with the bases loaded and no outs. There is something to be said for both the Contact and power approach. More teams seem to be building around contact. The Guardians would be the main team and it is why Miami wanted Arraez. Teams will need to blend approaches to be successful IMO.

A little surprised Chourio made the cut at 30. DSL numbers are hard to quantify as the competition is variable there. Still from what I have read at Fangraphs and a few other areas he could be a five tool player as he has the size\build to hit for power. Would be nice if he ends up the real deal. Given the low league OPS at the FSL Rosario didn't do too bad there. I agree that he should repeat the level. I am still excited by the power profile and hopefully those contact skills improve as we need more right handed power bats in the system. I don't know why but I have always been a big believer in Severino's Switch hitting bat. He has been a very up and down player and injured a fair but I think this is the year he makes that leap to consistency. Not sure what position he holds down but I still think the bat could be special. His best role might DH if can control the strike outs. I didn't think Acuna would make the top 30. For his age and noted his start to the season he had a solid debut but being one of the younger players at the DSL level I thought the Twins might have him repeat the level. The FCL has humbled many DSL players their first year and some never even make it to A ball from there. He has the pedigree and as noted was hot after the initial cold streak so he might be better than the overall numbers indicated. Would love to see him in the FCL and they might as well challenge him early. Was very impressed with what Headrick did last year. I still don't know if he is starter material but if he keeps that WHIP and ERA down at AA and AAA it sure would be nice to have a viable Left handed Starter at the MLB level. Here's hoping he moves up this list into the top ten after this years performance. De Andrade's bat hasn't impressed me but with only 13.5 K rate he is making contact. Hopefully he figures out how to square up more balls or be more patient waiting for quality strikes. I am not as bullish on De Andrade at this time. A mini breakout would change that for me but I think he should repeat the FCL as suggested in the article. A ball seems to be a really tough challenge he doesn't look ready to me. Sands and Enlow are enigma's. They have proven they have the stuff but they both fallen off in the results department. Just gonna have to wait and see what 2023 brings to figure out what they are for real. Same goes for Balazovich. Pretty hyped on Nowlin but then I always do go a little gaga over K rate. I had him pegged as a reliever but if he can be a starter that would be quite the find in round 19. Needs to find more control but he has the stuff to get guys out. A nice list of far away guys and guys ready to bust the door down. Here's hoping they all make it.