Parker Hageman

On this week's No Juice Podcast -- recorded from JL Beers in Northeast Minneapolis -- Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss the Minnesota Twins' struggles with their first round draft picks, the possibility of Joe Mauer never bouncing back and more. Click to listen.Other topics include super hot Super Bowl Media Day takes, revisited the Manziel vs Bridgewater scenario, talked Twins first round draft struggles and the Timberwolves trolling Kevin Love. Mike Evans from JL Beers joins the show to introduce the outstanding burger and beer bar in Northeast Minneapolis to the listeners. He also shares how you can get $10 Burger Bucks for free. Be sure to download their mobile app to help decide what to spend that on. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #41: SUNDAY AT JL BEERS Click here to view the article

Man. Would you look at all this sub-commenting...

That's the picture you guys use? Really?

Technically, the Twins could have taken anyone in the draft. You could argue that the Twins COULD HAVE drafted Wil Myers in the first round in 2009 or COULD HAVE drafted Tyson Ross in 2008. I understand what you are driving at but there are a lot of roads to travel if you are conducting your study in this manner. Right. Obviously if we were trying to gauge each pick you would take the position and see what the WAR value is on average, you could then see what each individual pick did in terms of under, over or simply achieve. No question. For a straightline analysis against other teams in that time, the Twins median selection was at 28. 12 teams drafted at a lower median position from them at that time and nine of those teams had higher WAR totals from those picks. The Cardinals are probably the most apt comparison in that time -- selecting at comparable slots in that time. They managed to milk 23.7 WAR out of there picks. On the other hand, Boston -- a well thought of analytical team who similarly drafted near the Twins but had more picks overall -- only got 3.4 WAR out of their picks. I wrote this in the article and I will reiterate it now: Draft position factors in quite a lot as to what level of talent is available, but having a high pick does not guarantee success either. Having a low pick does not preclude a team from not succeeding in the draft either. I'll say this one more time: The conclusion presented in the post isn't that "the Twins didn't draft well". The conclusion is that the first round picks have failed to perform.

Look, I don't know what you are thinking you have read and/or getting out of the original post but let me reiterate one final time before ending this conversation so you can continue to do research on this matter until you find a conclusion and methodology that are strong like bull: (1) Using WAR, how did the Twins fare with their first round picks compared to other teams between 2006 and 2011? (2) Conclusion. Poorly. Those of us who followed the team in that time recognize that the conclusion was already there. These numbers are just highlighting to what extent using WAR. There are teams that have drafted at higher positions who have fared better and there are teams with lower draft slots who did worse in that time. If you care to re-read the post, you will find that there is no definitive statement suggesting the team is doing anything wrong. Also, there is a statement saying that this study is complete considering there are still players who could make the major league level and provide more positive value. This was not intended to be an inch wide and a mile deep. If you felt misled, I'm sorry. That was not the intent. Again, it was a simple question and simple conclusion. The Twins have had one of the lowest success rates of first round picks based on WAR from 2006 to 2011 at this point. True story. If you care to continue to further your research in perfecting the methodology and conclusion to demonstrate to what extent the Twins underachieved, overachieved or just achieved, then I recommend contacting TD member Jay in assisting him in his blog post. Otherwise, I think this conversation has run its course. http://24.media.tumblr.com/55b2b8063859b27c9d04eaf739772082/tumblr_meqar76mwj1rmmshbo1_250.gif

No, the statement is the Twins have not had success drafting in the first round from 2006 through 2011. By the measurement of WAR, they have had the lowest returns. It is a factual statement. Everything you are pointing to are reasons why the WAR has been low. You are trying to explain why in the years between 2006 and 2011 they have been bad. Those points are valid but do not necessarily change the fact that the Twins have had one of the lowest producing first round selections in those years. Revere has been the bright spot (gaining 4.2 WAR in a spot in the latter round is good) but I will add that Gibson's track record is not long enough to be considered a "success" as of yet (particularly in comparison to the rest of his draft class). Injures account for his delayed production but it doesn't change the fact that he has not produced well *yet*. There is still time for players from 2011 to also rebound as well as Hicks or maybe even Parmelee in Baltimore. All of this is acknowledged in the post. As it stands right here and now -- based on WAR and to a lesser extent the ability to get their players major league ready -- the Twins have performed poorly with their first round picks. That is what it is telling you.

1) Yes it was... http://i.imgur.com/YARiOQO.png 2) That was the point. It was just a look at the first round picks.

No question. Mills, Garbe & Johnson all fizzled.

And, to me, that's the hardest part for an outsider to do a comprehensive analysis of the draft. We can certainly measure how the Twins (or any team did) versus each individual draft position but there are plenty of other factors that influence whether or not that player met expectations or why they did not meet expectations.

The Twins were fairly consistent with the signing bonus recommendations with the exception of Ben Revere. He signed for well below slot.

There's going to be plenty of unknown factors if we try to understand the process of a team's draft. On paper, Bashore seemed fantastic. But you wonder what a medical staff or someone analyzing mechanics may have advised. I'd love to hear from the Twins and see what they may have changed when preparing for the draft.

Again, if this were a comprehensive review of the performance of the entire draft, all of that would be valid. This is just a look at the shortcomings of the first round picks from 2006-2011. Is it because of the staff? Or luck? Or development? Or whatever? More analysis is needed to address that. If you want to do a more comprehensive analysis and dive into the why the 2006-2011 first round picks came up short, we would enjoy having a blog post on that subject at Twins Daily. I should add that the 2004 draft for the Cardinals was the year before Jeff Luhnow took over the drafting. Whether or not that was a factor -- or just coincidence -- the team's drafting improved greatly when they adjusted that system.

The Twins selected at 28th. Nine of the 12 teams selecting at a higher position did better in that time.

And I would have liked to have been paid for my work. We can't always get what we want. I completely agree with you though while running my analysis, there are plenty of questions raised that if one were to look at why things went wrong, they would want to take a look at. If I were on a research team, I would be doing that type of analysis. However, for just a story highlight the fact that the team has grossly underperformed, this will suffice. I will tell you that 12 teams had a higher median draft position in the first round during that time. Only three of those teams have had less success than the Twins.

For the Minnesota Twins, two events in this past week bookend a disappointing era for first-round draft picks. On Friday it was announced that the team’s 55th pick overall in 2011, pitcher Hudson Boyd, was suspended for 50 games for a second violation of a drug of abuse. Two days later, Chris Parmelee, who was drafted 20th overall in 2006, signed a minor league contract with the Baltimore Orioles after he was released by the Twins earlier in the offseason. Without much to show from their first-round picks from 2006 through 2011, how bad has it been for the Twins compared to other teams?When you consider the production provided from 11 first-round picks in those six years, the Twins are near the bottom of the league. The 6.5 wins above replacement (WAR) is the sixth-lowest return on investment among all the major league teams in that span. Only the Indians, Rockies, Padres, Red Sox and Phillies managed to get less value out of their first round picks. http://i.imgur.com/YARiOQO.png To make matters worse, it is not just the fact that first-round picks have failed to perform for the Twins, it is that they have had troubles even reaching the game’s highest level. Just four of the 11 picks have made it through the system. Only the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays have churned out a lower percentage of major league players than Minnesota. Draft position factors in quite a lot as to what level of talent is available, but having a high pick does not guarantee success either. For instance, in those six years the Kansas City Royals found themselves selecting at a median spot of fourth but wound up with 15.7 runs above replacement for seven players in what were highly coveted draft positions. On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds drafted at a median spot of 15 and had a return of 44.5 wins above replacement (the fourth best in that time) on their nine players. “You cannot go into the draft saying, ‘we’re going to take position players this year,” said Roy Clark, a former Atlanta Braves scouting director and recent national cross-checker for the Los Angeles Dodgers, in the book ‘Scouts Honor’. “And then all of a sudden, we’re picking seventy-first, and all of the position players are gone or all of the good pitchers are gone. You never know who is going to be there. I like picking thirtieth every year. I want to pick thirtieth every year.” Based on that, Clark surely must have been envious of the Reds’ recent draft positions which were huddled in his sweet spot of the first rounds. Those selections turned into major league contributors in Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal and resulted in the fourth most wins above replacement in that time frame. Meanwhile, in the same period, the Twins were drafting slightly lower than Clark’s ideal spot - and certainly further down the list than the Reds. **** It didn’t always used to be this way for the Twins. While sitting in Terry Ryan’s office earlier this winter, the topic of the 1989 amatuer draft came up. When reviewing the first four picks by the Twins at Baseball-Reference.com, one cannot help but be impressed by the fruit that that draft bore. It was a work of art in the scouting world -- probably something veteran scouts talk about over bourbon and cigars. That year’s draft provided the Twins with two vital components to their eventual World Series title in 1991: a top of the lineup catalyst and an excellent defender at a key up-the-middle position in Chuck Knoblauch (1st round, 25th overall) and a 20-game winner in Scott Erickson (4th, 112th overall). In between was left-handed pitcher Denny Neagle (3rd, 85th) from the University of Minnesota, who would later be flipped to Pittsburgh in 1992 so the Twins could acquire 20-game winner John Smiley, and go on to have a solid career of his own. Of course, in addition to noticing the noteworthy careers of Knoblauch, Neagle and Erickson, one cannot also help but be drawn to the one name on the Baseball-Reference.com list that does not include a hyperlink to a major league career: John Gumpf. “Gumpf,” Ryan said to himself in his office while reminiscing about the draft that helped lay a foundation for the organization’s second World Series title. He shook his head and seemed to be kicking himself all over again. He and his staff had gone three-for-four but swung and missed badly on that second pitch. As the team’s scouting director, Ryan was at the helm of his third amateur draft in 1989. They were looking to supplement the farm system with power and Gumpf’s name surfaced in the war room while the team was on the clock. Reports on the high school kid from Riverside, CA said he had plenty of pop in his bat. With the fifty-fifth overall pick -- the same spot in which the Twins would take high school pitcher Hudson Boyd twenty-two years later -- they added their slugger. Or so they thought. Gumpf’s professional career never amount to much. Over four seasons in the minors, he knocked out 15 home runs in 291 games and retired with a .329 slugging percentage over his minor league career. How did that happen? How did the Twins who were on a roll miss so poorly with their second pick? Ryan shrugged. Couldn’t make an adjustment here or didn’t make an adjustment there or maybe the reports were overblown. Either way, Gumpf was out of professional baseball and that year’s draft was a resounding success. Sometimes you just miss. **** Did the Twins scouting department lose its innovative edge from the era in which they were winning drafts? Have they since been outmaneuvered by other teams who have found ways to exploit the draft? Did the development system fail the players? Is this simply a case of bad luck in what is after all a small sample size? Going back to 2006 through 2011, teams with picks in the top ten -- the Rays, the Giants, the Dodgers -- were able to lock in marquee picks like David Price, Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw. Naturally they wound up getting plenty of value from those players. Those outside of that area either had to spend additional money (like the Tigers in landing Rick Porcello) or just simply had to be better than everyone else at evaluating talent. The St. Louis Cardinals seemed to exemplify that. With their lowest pick at 13th, much like the Minnesota Twins, the majority of the Cardinals' first rounders came on the wrong side of 25. Nevertheless, they were able to generate 23.7 WAR while graduating 72% of their first rounders so they could help the parent company. Part of it helps to be lucky but, like Branch Rickey touted, luck is the residue of design. As a team that was selecting players in the latter portions of the draft, the Cardinals found success by ensuring the lines of communication were open among all departments. “[W]e had a great interaction between scouting and player development,” former Cardinals scouting director and now Astros’ GM Jeff Luhnow told FoxSports.com in regard to what made his 2009 draft class so special. “[Cardinals chairman and CEO] Bill DeWitt’s responsible for that; it’s his vision. My first charter was to coordinate between different silos – there was a scouting silo, a player-development silo; it happens – so I took everyone on an international trip. Eventually there was a process in place. Analytics, scouting, medical, mechanics: Ultimately everything has to come together in a ranking. It’s not absolute, but a guide. Partly art, partly science.” **** Despite losing Parmelee for nothing, the Twins still have several players who could provide value to rescue their numbers. Kyle Gibson (22nd overall, 2009) is coming off a year where he became a stabilizing force in the rotation and could make big steps forward in 2015. Meanwhile, from 2006 to 2011, the highest the Twins drafted was 14th in 2008 and that resulted in Aaron Hicks. At his age, Hicks still has every opportunity to provide positive value but has plenty of adjustments to make in order to do so. Same goes for Levi Michael, Travis Harrison, Alex Wimmers and Boyd. But picks like Matt Bashore, Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt are forever filed under missed opportunities. The cyclical nature of the draft seems to have paved the way for a brighter future for the team. After several years of underperforming because of poor returns in the first round, the Twins were able to make selections when premium talent was still on the board. Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Luke Bard, Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon have the makings to provide a solid foundation. Of course, if and/or when the team begins to win again, learning from mistakes and ensuring that the draft continues to provide major league talent should be a top priority. Click here to view the article

Correct. Laudner was unable to make the Meltdown or TwinsFest due to a family obligation.

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman review, rehash and piece together what happened at the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown. Positive grades all around. But don't take it from us, check out these attendees thoughts below. Other topics include signing Brian Duensing, analytics in the NFL, Johnny Manziel ruining football and Dan being a terrible high school quarterback. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #40: WINTER MELTDOWN REVIEW Click here to view the article

I'm going to preface this by saying I want Trevor May to have the fifth spot in 2015. I think he has the tools and track record. I do agree with Nick's take here... ...but in speaking to evaluators, plenty will say they put the same weight in September performances as they do spring training performances. The one thing that plagued May throughout his MLB debut was his inability to pitch well from the stretch, which I outlined here: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/trevor-may-and-pitching-from-the-stretch-r3066 He never really solved for that: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=maytr01&year=2014&t=p#bases::none Certainly, I think it is something he can work to improve. Perhaps Neil Allen can help hasten that process. Either way, looking forward to May in 2015.

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman record from Christos Greek Restaurant in Minnetonka and discuss the recently released projections for the 2015 Minnesota Twins, Trevor Plouffe's improving defense, Phil Hughes' chances for regression as well as reminisce about the baseball card industry. Click to listen.Other topics include a review of Parker's birthday night out and being too optimistic about the Minnesota Vikings. Download attachment: Cards.jpg Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #39: PROJECTING THE TWINS Click here to view the article

Data versus the eye test is fun with Plouffe. Data at Fangraphs says he's 4th among qualified 3B in defense. The Runs Saved from Baseball Info Solutions says he's 12th. When run through SABR.org's SABR Defensive Index (which accounts for 25% of the Gold Glove vote), he wound up a top-4 defender in the LA. On the other hand, those that voted in Fangraphs' Fan Scouting Report had him as the 22nd defensive 3B overall. There clearly is a divide in the perception of his defense based on previous seasons versus what actually happened this season (created more outs, etc). Is he an elite defender? Probably not. Biggest takeaway should be that in 2014 almost every measurement was an improvement over the last season.