Parker Hageman

The average age of MLB pitchers is 28.5. 25 is younger than 28.5. 25 is young compared to the average. Your point is valid though. May has had plenty of experience and is probably on the older "young" side of things.

Most organizations might view 2015 as an opportunity to have a young starter who has little left to prove at the minor league level to build upon those numbers. Trevor May, however, will not be doing so for Minnesota. Not to start the season anyway. Are the Twins making the right decision?According to ESPN/TruMedia, May’s 9.8 K/9 in September was the ninth-best among all American League pitchers with four starts or more. In all of 2014, with the exception of May, not one Twins starting pitcher managed to eclipse that nine strikeouts per nine innings mark in a single month. His 12% swinging strike rate topped the rotation as well and ranked alongside brand name AL pitchers. On top of that, May was just familiarizing himself with major league opponents. The strikeout-poor Twins starting rotation should be thankful to have found that kind of contributor. READ: TWINS MAKE CUTS, NAME STARTERS Instead the Twins decided that the left-handed Tommy Milone made the most sense for the rotation to start the year and opted to have May begin the season in Rochester. While Milone will be tapped to be the fifth starter, general manager Terry Ryan was bursting with complimentary words when he told the media that he was not “displeased with Trevor May either.” May’s “not displeasing” spring was truncated by a bout with the flu which limited his innings at the beginning of the exhibition season. Nevertheless, in the ten innings of work he struck out nine and walked just two -- a much better K/BB ratio than either Milone or Mike Pelfrey. READ: TREVOR MAY STATES HIS CASE The news was a let down for the 25-year-old right-hander. After two consecutive seasons in camp with early reassignments this decision felt different for May. “It’s completely different because the first cut you feel like you are just there to get your innings and go get your work in. I felt like I have a chance. I feel like this is the level I am going to be at but it’s just not going to be right now.” Teams cannot make costly decisions based on a body of work that stretches for a month. The strikeout-filled September also contain plenty of issues when hitters did make contact. In addition to the robust strikeout rate, May also had one of the league’s highest hard-hit averages and owned the AL’s highest slugging percentage against. Missing bats is good but elevating pitches and allowing hard contact is not. In his final start against the Pirates, May was not as stretched out in comparison to his competition. Over 4.2 innings of work, he threw 33 pitches -- his highest total pitch count of the spring. That start also came with loud contact combined with wind-aided extra base hits. Despite the results, May felt good about the process but recognized when the kinetic chain broke down. “I got a little long sometimes and some things flattened out a little bit. Especially elevating,” May said after his final start. “When I was trying to elevate usually that’s has more life than it did. Things stayed a little bit flatter when I would more often than not get bad swings but they squared up pretty good. They got me a couple times.” After struggling from the stretch in 2014 and refining his mechanics this spring, May felt like he was headed in the right direction. His takeaway from his last start was positive. “For the most part my body feels under control and I’m definitely happy with the progress I am making in those areas and being able to get ahead of guys and keeping the ball down in the zone, for the most part, has been better than it has been in the past.” READ: TREVOR MAY AND PITCHING FROM THE STRETCH One area that May improved upon in 2014 was his ability to control the run game. After allowing 22 stolen bases on 28 attempts in 2013 in New Britain, he allowed just one stolen base in four attempts split between Rochester and the Twins. The attention to runners required additional focus on execution and location on his secondary pitches from the stretch -- something that he felt was progressing well in the spring. Manager Paul Molitor mentioned that May did not pitch himself out of contention for the spot this spring. It was different variables that played a role in choosing Milone. The message to May for the immediate future was simple. “Go down and keep working,” said May in regards to the instructions he received from the Twins. “I felt like I made a lot of steps and improved in areas that needed to improvement, composure-wise and poise and being aggressive. That’s how it shakes out sometimes.” Click here to view the article

That's clearly what happened. As he explained, in the ESPN interview he rattled off eliminating defensive shifts as a possibility to solve for offensive struggles but there was no research or in-depth study was performed on either the offensive struggles or the effects of defensive shifts. Created quite a tizzy.

The crux is as a timing mechanism but being able to engage his lower half better than he did before (see: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/can-aaron-hicks-be-fixed-r3262)

The Minnesota Twins made several significant moves on Saturday morning. Read all about them in the latest Report From The Fort.Twins Trim Roster To 31 The Twins trimmed their roster to 31 this morning with the announcement that Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario and Trevor May will be optioned, while Mark Hamburger will be reassigned to the minor league camp. Hicks acknowledged that players have to continue to show results but didn’t necessarily think his spring training stats played a role in the decision. “You gotta show that you are producing,” Hicks said. “You gotta show that you’re having good ideas. You gotta show that you are driving guys in and moving them along, you’re doing all that stuff. Whether it is spring training or not. They're looking to make the best team for this team. Every spot is not certain.” “You gotta prove that you are the best player at that position, at that time and that’s what it is about.” Hicks had made inroads towards improving his offense, incorporating a leg kick in his swing to generate more power. “I feel like I am making more aggressive swings, attacking in the zone and I feel like I was making good swings. I feel like I lined out a couple times and sent the ball deep and that’s the results that I want.” Molitor confirmed that the move was predicated on Hicks’ entire body of work in March. “I told him I appreciate his work down here and his desire to try to improve various aspects of his game. I think the bottom line was that he didn’t perform particularly well. There were times when we saw some good things obviously," said Molitor Molitor said his message to Hicks was clear: Work hard and there is a chance he will be back in Minnesota soon. "Let him know that the opening day roster isn’t critical to what his year can be about. He needs to be a good defender and a guy who knows how to score runs and consistency in the quality of at-bat.” When asked if some of the mental mistakes such as the base-running issues and forgetting how many outs there were in an inning were factors in the decision to go a different direction, Molitor admitted it did. “You take full consideration of how spring goes, obviously. I told him after that happened that the next day after we talked about it that I like to move on and wipe the slate clean. But when you look at the body of work you have to consider all things that happen down here that was part of that. He understands that he needs to be engaged in the game.” “He’s a guy who if he defends well and has good at-bat and stays aggressive on the basepaths he can be helpful up here. And not make mental mistakes.” Center Field Picture Becoming Clear With Hicks’ demotion, the Twins’ center field race has been won by Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson, who will share duties in the field. “We’re going to have to probably use more than one person out there in center field, at least in the short-term.” Molitor said this morning after cuts were announced. The Twins manager, however, stopped short of declaring the situation a platoon. “Because you have Hunter that needs rest, you have Arcia who you want to get better against lefties and some days you might feel that it is not a good lefty to do that one. That’s why I would say it is not a straight platoon.” The right-handed hitting Robinson does not have an overly impressive track record against left-handed pitching. Since 2011, he’s batted .248/.333/.296 in 142 minor league plate appearances and .220/.308/.283 in 237 major league plate appearances against southpaws In addition to Schafer and Robinson, Molitor said that Eduardo Escobar will be used to spell some of the outfielders on occasion but tiptoed around the idea of using Eduardo Nunez in the outfield, suggesting his role is on the bench. “For Nunnie, it is possible that he could see play out there,” said Molitor, “but realistically he’s gonna be a good guy and you want to use all your players at some point but he’s a guy who can pinch run and pinch hit and you want to get him some at-bat to keep him sharp.” Tommy Milone Named Fifth Starter With May’s demotion, the Twins announced that Tommy Milone would start the year as the fifth man in the rotation. Milone pieced together a spring performance that saw 15 hits and 7 runs over 14 innings but Molitor said that the staff was impressed by his ability to “minimize” damage. “Tommy pitched fine down here. He’s healthy. We saw glimpses that were really good. He never pitched poorly,” said Molitor. “He minimized, he’s experienced and when evaluating my options in the short-term here get him off to a good start from the left-side.” Milone’s edge over the other two candidates was not that significant. “I thought May and Pelfrey didn’t really pitch themselves out of that role and it wasn’t like Milone was way better than those guys but given all variables, it makes the most sense for Tommy to be our guy.” Mike Pelfrey To The Pen With Milone as the final member of the rotation, Mike Pelfrey was informed that he would be moving to the bullpen. The decision did not sit well with Pelfrey as he told reporters that he would be open to a trade if it would lead to a spot in a rotation. For now, Molitor said he would treat him as a member of his bullpen. “He’s stretched out, he can pitch multiple innings if we run into trouble early in the game. I told him in the short-term that I was going to stay away from bringing him in in the middle of an inning until he figures out his routine for getting ready out there. He’s gonna get some opportunities out there this week.” Molitor said he was aware that Pelfrey was disappointed but wouldn’t address his comments. “I’m sure he’s disappointed. He put in a lot of effort to get himself back to a competitive spot. He’s looking at a little bit of a crossroad with his career after his injury and contract and all those things. I tried to be as transparent and forthcoming as I could.” Danny Santana At Short It may have been inevitable but Molitor made it official: Danny Santana will be his opening day shortstop in Detroit. Click here to view the article

On Thursday against the Red Sox, Minnesota Twins’ third baseman Trevor Plouffe was station on the right side of second base. This is certainly a not uncommon alignment to use against David Ortiz but also becoming increasingly common in an era that has seen a massive proliferation in the use of the strategy overall. The Twins were late adaptors but they have almost gone all-in on the defense, deploying the shift more liberally with most of the credit given to now-manager Paul Molitor. The organization went from 66 shifts in 2013 to over 500 instances in 2014. Like seeing someone take a selfie, baseball’s defensive shifts went from being a weird practice to commonplace.There is precedent to embrace the shift. For example, according to Baseball Info Solutions, shifting has been rewarding to the teams who move their players around the most, those having “saved” an average of 8 runs per season or a rough translation of about one win per season. Data-driven teams saw this edge and were aggressive in placing their players in a position to maximize their odds of converting a batted ball into an out. However at the beginning of the year new commissioner Rob Manfred seemingly placed the shift on the endangered species list. Would he really kill the shift? In his tour around spring training facilities, the commissioner made a whistle-stop at the Lee County Sports Complex camp to discuss the state of Major League Baseball and the game’s future with the team’s ownership as well as providing face time with the players. Manfred fielded questions from the media that ranged from the early feedback on the new pace-of-game initiatives (“really been positive”) to a childhood memory of a Twins-Yankees series in 1968 (“everybody remembers the first time they went to a major league game”) to Scott Boras’ comments about the Cubs’ decision to send client Kris Bryant to the minors (“that really isn’t any of Scott Boras’ business”). When prompted to elaborate his stance regarding banning defensive shifts, Manfred had to laugh. “I’m so tired of this topic,” Manfred told the media scrum with a chuckle and then humored the internet writer with an explanation behind the charge he made on ESPN in January that a ban on defensive shifts was under consideration by his office. “My comment on defensive shifts came after a series of questions so without repeating them all, we are looking at the issue of offense in the game. We wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we’re not because there is a lot of conversation in the game about the fact that offense is down. Where we are on that issue analytically is we haven’t even decided whether we have an aberration or a trend that may require a remedy. I went through all that before I got to defensive shifts. As a follow, somebody said ‘If and when you decide you have a problem what might you talk about, what might you be willing to consider?’ In that context I mentioned defensive shifts. Nothing more serious than that.” There is no grand plan to build a fence between short and second or tethering the third baseman to the base. What Manfred made clear is that there is no imminent danger to the shift lifestyle and that all the blowback has him reconsidering that option. “Frankly, given the feedback that I’ve gotten since I made that comment I’m not even certain that I would even consider it anymore.” So defensive enthusiasts can rest easy knowing that there will be no restrictions placed on fielders in the foreseeable future. The Twins can continue to rearrange their infielders as they see fit to try to minimize the damage from their pitching staff. Click here to view the article

On the back fields of the Twins’ spring training complex, a relay throw away from the sparkling new minor league facility, starter Phil Hughes was putting the finishing touches on his preseason work against a group of Rays prospects. The outing went as expected. For the most part Hughes manhandled an inexperienced lineup save for a two-run home run by first base prospect Jake Bauers which Hughes claimed came on a curve that he failed to bury.“I threw him a good backdoor cutter that he fouled off, a good fastball that he fouled off and then I threw him a terrible curveball,” Hughes said. “I was a little ticked.” In their next meeting, Hughes provided the Rays’ hitter with an education in major league pitching and how to expand the strike zone, punctuated with his patent backdown cutter. Like a fair number of Hughes’ strikeouts with the cutter, the pitch skirted around the strike zone. Because he hit his target with such precision, catcher Kurt Suzuki barely moving an eyelash, the umpire punched him out looking. In disbelief, Bauers lingered in the box after the inning-ended strikeout, he mumbled “that’s not a strike” to the ump while shaking his head. The slow walk back to the dugout was followed with more disagreement. “He seemed like he had an attitude.” Hughes joked. In all, Hughes looked sharp and pounded the strike zone like business as usual. Hughes ripped out 70 pitches and threw another twenty in the bullpen to work on finishing his curveball and emphasizing his arm speed. The start also including several changeups and a few more in the bullpen session. One change prompted both pitching coach Neil Allen and Suzuki to let him know how good that pitch was moving. “I’ve never been a guy with great feel for it,” Hughes said of the pitch. “I just have to make sure that my arm speed is good and that I’m just releasing it out front. I threw a couple good ones in the bullpen afterwards just to mix it in and get a little feel.” Pitch data suggests that Hughes threw about a dozen changeups last year but the side work where he can focus on the feel rather than the results has helped build his confidence in the pitch. “It’s feel and confidence really,” Hughes said about progress of his change. “If I’m not confident enough I won’t throw it in a game and I’ll rely on the three pitches I used primarily last year. If the feel's there and I throw it and the results are there I’ll gain confidence and I’ll throw it more.” With one more start in spring between now and opening day, Hughes said he is not sure what the plan will be for the next outing. After 90 pitches on Friday, he believes that he may either ramp up to 100 pitches or throw fewer in preparation for the real games. “Ideally, Neil [Allen] would want to back us off on our last start before the regular season but he also mentioned he wanted to get us throwing 100 pitches so I don’t know if this next start is going to be backed off or (go) to 100.” Click here to view the article

ESPN/TruMedia (http://www.trumedianetworks.com/mlb-baseball-analytics/). I'm not certain what BaseballSavant is doing with their pitchf/x data for zone stuff but it doesn't seem to add up to what TruMedia (paywall) or to what Fangraphs.com's PitchF/x (51%) data is saying. Then again, the BIS's Fangraphs.com video scouted data says his zone rate was closer to 45% which would match the BaseballSavant data. I honestly don't have an explanation for the discrepancies. TruMedia is PitchFX-based but has video scouts (Inside Edge, I believe) verifying. Meanwhile BaseballSavant and Fangraph.com's Pitch F/X data should be the same feed. One might be adjusting the zone parameters differently. Another interesting case of data discrepancies. QUICK UPDATE: I emailed Daren Williams, the proprietor of BaseballSavant.com and he claims that he gets his data straight from MLB AM's feed and does nothing to manipulate it with. "All the zone data on Baseball Savant is taken directly from MLBAM," Williams said. "Every pitch MLBAM records is given a zone location by their PITCHfx algorithm. When you view the game day app it's the same as what they show. That's what I'm using."

Correct. From what I've been told, it is not because MLB wants to sit on the data but that the data set is significantly larger than PitchF/X-StatsCast that they don't quite know how to share it to the public.

That really wasn't the case. He actually saw more in-zone pitches in the second-half of the season (49% 1st half/51% 2nd half). His July/August BB/K are interesting. In July, he posted a 3/23 BB/K. In August, it was 25/18 BB/K. I'm not certain why the discrepancy either. In July, he often moved around the order batting leadoff, second and third. The person hitting behind him frequently changed as well -- instead of Mauer batting behind him like at the beginning of the year, it was Eduardo Nunez, Kurt Suzuki, Eduardo Escobar and Trevor Plouffe. In August he went back to batting second consistently and had Mauer hitting behind him again. Maybe it was mindset? His approach may have been that of a run-producer in July while he went back to approaching it as a table-setter in August.

No question. I thought the same thing. Interestingly enough, John Dewan, James' partner in the website as well as the president of BIS, responded to James' plea and left it available for all to see (read here). What it seems is that they believe James has a fundamental misunderstanding for how BIS's Defensive Runs Saved system works. Early in the stats' inception, James concocted the idea of the plus/minus reward but the stat has since evolved by weighting the play based on the situation and difficulty. It also has broken it down to "runs" for easier digestion. I believe the system is improved but still is lacking in areas that allows for easy comprehension. Technically, it is all available -- we would just have to watch the video all plays and log them like BIS or Inside Edge does. I'm holding out hope that FieldF/X will give that layer -- be able to answer the question of quickness and first-step and routes that we are only able to measure with our eyes or video scouts' account. It will be a brave new world, indeed.

As Terry Ryan rattled off the bullet points which led the organization toward signing Brian Dozier to a new four-year, $20 million contract that lasts through 2018, the Twins’ general manager cited his second baseman’s glove work. “He doesn’t get enough attention for his defense,” the Twins’ general manager said on Tuesday morning at Dozier's press conference. To put that in pop culture terms, his fielding is the baseball equivalent of Justified.Certainly Dozier’s new contract goes beyond his defense. As Ryan said, Dozier has been able to pop a few over the fence -- where his first-half totals landed him a Home Run Derby -- as well as steal bases (and baserunning in general). Beyond that, he also creates chemistry in the clubhouse and has a mane that just won’t quit. But Dozier’s defense seems appropriately appreciated for what it is: visually appealing but occasionally flawed. So let’s give Dozier’s defense some attention here. Let us start with the understanding that defense is the final frontier when it comes to finding a baseline of what constitutes universally good defense. Some will never be swayed from the trusty eye test while others will use a litany of defensive metrics to construct a profile. The problem with the former is that a human cannot watch, inventory and compare every play over the course of a season or multiple seasons. The issue with the latter is that several different systems with various methodologies are being used to measure a complex series of events. Even Bill James, the OG of metrics, recently threw shade at BIS’ defensive stats as well as other advanced fielding stats. “Fielding Statistics failed because they created no organized universe of data, thus no solid footing on which Direct-Inference Analysis could be conducted,” James wrote in January on his website, BillJamesOnline.net which houses the Plus/Minus system. In laymen’s terms, the common language of OPS+ is that 100 is average and anything above or below it is good or bad. Would saying Dozier was a -4.4 UZR/150 second baseman in 2014 mean something without context? Or that he had 0 Defensive Runs Saved? Or that he was a -16 in the Plus/Minus? These are three stats attempting to measure the same thing but are spoken in three different languages. The advanced metrics are good. They help inventory numerous plays that the mind will never be able to recall without a layer of bias. Where the system starts to be flawed is in attempting to compare one player against other players of that position as not all plays are created equal. Take this Dozier play for example. In it, the runner at second is going on the play and it is Dozier’s responsibility to cover the base. The batter manages to hit behind the runner at which point Dozier quickly changes directions, lunges back at the ball and makes the play to first. http://i.imgur.com/ZneGQ3S.gif How exactly is that type of play measured across the league’s stash of second basemen? On one hand a faster second baseman might have overrun that play because he would be covering the bag. On the other, a different second baseman might not have moved a muscle and made a routine at ‘em ball. How is there a way to appropriately weigh this play? There is no perfect method or one statistic that will be a magic bullet for a player’s defense. In determining where Dozier’s defense stands, it is best to take a little bit of everything into account. Mark Simon at ESPN Stats & Info forwarded some Baseball Info Solution raw data that would help add flavor to Dozier’s defensive abilities. According to Simon, Dozier finished the year with the highest “good fielding plays” by a second baseman with 74. That is one of these types of plays in which Dozier ranges to his left on a slow bounder and manages a quick release with enough on it to Mauer first: http://i.imgur.com/IpUTw1G.gif In that particular play, you see Dozier demonstrating his quick first step, range and rapid-fire release. Within Inside Edge’s statistical warehouse at Fangraphs.com that buckets these plays into categories ranging from “Almost Certain” to “Remote”, that particular play constituted an “Even Chance” or a 50/50 shot another second baseman would have made that same play. In addition to making the most “good fielding plays” for second basemen in 2014, Dozier also committed the most “miscues and errors” in the group as well (24). In these circumstances, Errors, as everyone knows, are made-up stats determined by a dictator in the press box while Miscues are plays that the dictators in the press box miss because they were refilling their soda at that time or the player missed a double-play opportunity, slipped or was temporarily blinded by the sun. Like these two on one play: http://i.imgur.com/BBcxEED.gif Or this one: http://i.imgur.com/YWGtrvg.gif Dozier led all second basemen with nine throwing errors in 2014, most of which appear to be of the rushed delivery variety -- trying to do too much. Dozier’s ownership of the most “good fielding plays” and “miscues” is a byproduct of simply having one of the highest number of opportunities. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, the Twins’ pitching staff allowed 440 ground balls in play to the right-center (second base) zone, the third-most in the majors. Meanwhile, Inside Edge’s Kenny Kendrena provided some additional data regarding Dozier’s fielding tendencies. According to their stuff, Dozier was 10th among all second baseman at converting “hard-hit” balls into outs. These are the low-flying missiles that leave the infield in a hurry. http://i.imgur.com/CA5Ohzh.gif Thanks to his pitch-to-impact staff, Dozier was on the receiving end of 31 of these balls, second only to Diamondbacks’ Aaron Hill (40). While he did not make all the “Almost Certain” plays (11 of 12), he did lead in turning most “Unlikely” plays into outs (3 of 4). In addition to handling hard-hit balls well, Kendrena revealed that their data shows that Dozier also was one of the most adept second basemen at making plays backhanded. Not plays to his backhand-side, actually having his glove turned around. Like this: http://i.imgur.com/p3q16Pb.gif And this: http://i.imgur.com/crQFWgB.gif Only Boston’s Dustin Pedroia was scored as better at plays in this manner than Dozier in 2014. This was the reason Dozier’s Plus/Minus while ranging to his right was strong. Putting all of these parts into a whole paints the picture of a solid but not spectacular defender. Based on Inside Edge’s video scouts, Dozier has the ability to make plays that were considered “Unlikely”. BIS’s data suggested the same thing. He has flash and leaves nothing on the table when it comes to stopping a moving baseball. There is no question that the effort -- the kind that make pitchers, coaches and eye-testers happy -- is there. But at the same time he also created several mistakes when trying to do too much. Dozier’s defense probably qualifies as above average. Not elite. Not yet. Is that enough attention? Click here to view the article

Mike Berardino posted story on Monday addressing this: Welp. I guess I won't be writing that story when I get down to cover the Twins. Thanks MIKE.

How many games will Kurt Suzuki catch? Which combination of pitchers will have more starts -- Ricky Nolasco/Mike Pelfrey or Trevor May/Alex Meyer? Will Joe Mauer have an OBP over .390? How many fastballs will Glen Perkins throw over 95 mph? On this week's No Juice Podcast Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman try to handicap these stats and more. Listen upOther topics include Dan's March Madness adventure, NFL doctors, Adrian Peterson's agent and Christian Laettner hatred. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #48: TWINS OVER-UNDERS Click here to view the article

Lookin fine, John. Lookin' mighty fine indeed. Be sure to watch the video and leave us some feedback.

Thanks for the reminder to buy #CheapSunglasses.

No, the arm slot is not an injury concern. Randy Johnson had a 3/4 arm slot. http://www.trbimg.com/img-54ac4047/turbine/la-sp-sn-baseball-hall-of-fame-20150106