Parker Hageman

Nothing for public consumption. Some teams will either gather their own data or outsource to an Inside Edge-type company to gather info. Aside for that, some organizations like the Twins have added Trackman systems in their minor league ballparks and could use some of that data for evaluation. Beyond that, it is just the good old fashioned eye test.

Point with Plouffe is that the Twins do have patience for players to work through some shaky play. Look at Danny Santana right now as well. Sano's got a high error rate but it doesn't have to be a position-killer. Corey Koskie - Age-22 season (A): 36 errors in 109 games Miguel Sano - Age-20 season (A+-AA): 23 errors in 120 games Again, errors are dumb in defensive evaluation. As the clip shows above, Sano has decent athleticism. Hopefully he can improve the decision-making/concentration in order to keep from making the routine errors.

Trevor Plouffe made plenty of errors in his first season at third. Above that, he also had to work on his first step. Developed into a very decent third basemen. Sano could wind up doing the same.

Over the past week Twins prospect Miguel Sano has laid waste to his Southern League competition, going 11-for-29 (.379) with four doubles, a pair of home runs and 8 RBIs with a .438 on-base percentage to boot. Because of his performance, the Twins anointed him their Minor League Player of the Week. The Twins general manager had made a trip through Chattanooga to evaluate the club recently and when asked about his thoughts on where Sano is at in his development stage, Ryan gave his usual straightforward remarks.“He’s doing better,” Ryan said. “As you see, the progression is going in this direction and that’s good. He’s got work to do as does every guy down there at the Double-A level. But they’ve got a good club. There are guys that carried that team when Sano and Buxton were struggling. Neither one of them are struggling anymore.” Sano is certainly doing better. In the season’s first month he tagged four home runs but compiled a line of .159/.303/.381 while racking up strikeouts at a near 30% clip. When the calendar flipped to May, he turned it on. His line drive rate went from non-existent to lasers around the ballpark, helping him achieve a .321/.406/.625 line over his last 16 games. That is the progression the Twins are happy to see from Sano. Far too often, Sano’s swing results in towering flies to the middle of the park. Some of those flies turn into no-doubters but a high portion of them turn into long fly outs when hit to the middle of the park. Mixing in the screaming liners would ensure he reached safely on a few more of those plate appearances. http://i.imgur.com/7Tcw94c.gif There’s no doubt that Sano has the type of power that makes a pitcher hang his head and, for now, Sano’s bat is the focus but the underlying concern is whether his defense will be major league caliber. The on-going narrative for Sano is that the big man with the big swing will eventually be moved out of that position. Now with nine errors in 32 games, Ryan was asked if his defense was a concern for the organization to which he shrugged off. “No. Never has been a concern for me. I’ve never had a concern over his fielding, still don’t.” http://i.imgur.com/ypMNDFr.gif “Everybody makes errors in the minor league,” Ryan reminded the reporters. While errors are an antiquated measuring stick for defense, a high total still raises the question regarding a player’s skill set. Is his glove work in need of improvement? Is his throwing hindered by the recent Tommy John surgery? Is it decision-making? “They are both fine,” Ryan offered about Sano’s arm and hands. “He’s a kid who makes some unforced errors. Some of them he makes phenomenal plays but the next one is routine and he’ll botch it. Like a lot of youthful mistakes. All he needs is time. There’s nothing wrong with him.” Fielding aside, if Sano continues to swing the bat the way he currently is, he will likely find himself in a major league lineup in no time. Click here to view the article

If that was his intent he's barely moved the needle.

I don't believe it is but it could be. All spring Hughes said that he wanted to add another dimension this season -- first it was with the change and now it is a two-seamer. I don't know if that is the influence of his coaches or something he felt he needed to stay ahead of the competition but it certainly wasn't broke to begin with.

That's an interesting suggestion but I'm not sure that is his issue this season. His deception in 2014 was spotting the ball down (with his cutter) and up (with his fastball). Compared to last year, he's throwing fewer in-zone pitches (albeit slightly). The biggest difference is the location -- now his two-seamer is middle/down. One of the reasons he didn't throw his curveball early is because of the split nail. That may have also played a role in his location of some other pitches as well.

Will Phil Hughes be able to quit giving up home runs? Did that ball that Miguel Cabrera hit off Brian Duensing ever land? Can Ricky Nolasco continue to spin all that filth flarn filth? Find out answers to these Twins questions and more.http://i.imgur.com/j8leLbg.gif If you are a traditionalist -- someone who focuses on wins, losses and ERA to measure a pitcher’s performance -- you might judge Phil Hughes’ first seven starts harshly. If you are someone who looks at peripheral stats and FIP to better gauge his output, you might say he’s underperforming. What has characterized Hughes’ second season in a Twins uniform is his inability to locate his fastballs as well as he did the previous season. He has not been wild, he’s simply failed to get the pitch to the intended target, like in last Saturday’s start against the Indians. Catcher Kurt Suzuki calls for a fastball down and in on David Murphy but the pitch stays middle-middle and Murphy is able to get everything behind it. This isn’t the first time he’s struggled to hit that particular spot. Here’s the thing: Hughes’ bread-and-butter is fastballs up in the zone. Opponents are hitting ,229/.243/.356 over the last two years when he locates in the upper third of the zone. Meanwhile they are hitting .335/.342/.518 in the lower portions. If he wants to get hitters out, he should be attacking up but that’s counter to what he is actually doing this year. According to Pitch F/X, Hughes has increased the number of two-seam fastballs this season. Last year he threw it approximately 159 times total but has thrown around 171 two-seamers this season. This explains why his fastball locations have been middle of the plate instead of in the upper-third as they are frequently when he throws his four-seamer. Along the same lines, opponents have figured out how to hit his cutter. After batting just .218/.248/.326 off of it in 2014, they are posting a healthy .300/.317/.575 line so far this year. Hughes will get the ball in tonight’s start against the Rays. http://i.imgur.com/PfCKOF3.gif Brian Duensing hit the disabled list in mid-April with an intercostal strain and since his return, it has been an uphill battle. In now 3.1 innings of work, he has surrendered nine hits. (Add in another four walks and the lefty reliever has been littering the bases with runners.) The nine hits also includes that towering bomb by Miguel Cabrera on Thursday afternoon. To Duensing’s credit, despite all the hits allowed, the Cabrera home run was just the first he had allowed this season. What’s more is that the slider’s location wasn’t bad. Not too many people are able to launch a pitch that is out of the strike zone for a home run. Unfortunately, Cabrera is one of the few hitters who can do it: Since 2011 Cabrera has socked nine home runs on pitches in that location, the most in baseball. http://i.imgur.com/Q1AuCJv.gif Speaking of home runs, since the beginning of May, Torii Hunter has hit five home runs. Outside of the freakish Bryce Harper (7), Marlon Byrd (6...wait, what) and Joc Pederson (6), Hunter is tied with Nelson Cruz, Logan Morrison, Stephen Vogt, Anthony Rizzo and Todd Frazier with five on the month. Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid.png Now with six on the year -- all pulled -- Hunter has shown he is locked in on pitches down-and-in. Not to mention, since moving to the second spot in the order on April 15, he is hitting .316/.370/.571 - a Top 25 OPS in that span. If you thought Ricky Nolasco threw filth flarn filth in his most recent start against the Tigers, you would be correct. Nolasco relied on his slider/curveball combination to strike out a season-high seven Detroit hitters, including Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler. Nolasco burned through pitches early by running the counts deep, walking three and ultimately exiting without completing his sixth inning of work. Still, the outing showed that the right-handed can make hitters look foolish with his secondary offerings. Opposing teams are hitting .366/.451/.488 off Nolasco’s fastball this year so a higher distribution of non-fastballs -- similar to Wednesday night’s outing at Comerica -- seems to be in order. http://i.imgur.com/U2vuNT1.gif There is a good reason this pitch was driven hard the other way: Trevor Plouffe was mentally well ahead of Detroit’s Kyle Lobstein. As discussed here last week, Plouffe has matured to the point where he knows that pitchers are trying to do. He said that he has found that pitchers will try to throw him hard inside then soft away. On cue, Lobstein tried to throw a soft slider down-and-away which Plouffe drove to the right center gap for a triple. Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (1).png http://i.imgur.com/w9lmSTt.gif After a really rough start to begin the season, reliever Blaine Boyer has strung together a series of nice outings. In fact, Boyer is one of just three relievers to not allow a run in their last ten innings or more. Boyer said in spring that he owed his time in Japan for helping him hone his command as he was forced to throw to a strike zone the size of a tennis ball. He has mid-90s heat which he claims is his two-seam fastball. While this seems to go against the science of pitching, Boyer swears that when he is hitting 94-95, it is the sinker that Cardinals’ pitching coach Dave Duncan taught him years ago. Without missing bats, Boyer’s success is likely limited but, for now, he has been able to help bridge the starters to Glen Perkins. Click here to view the article

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Not that I am aware of.

Pointed this out on the last No Juice Podcast: Will they regress? Sure, to some extent. You can't keep putting runners on base without allowing some run eventually. Now, the caveat as Nick pointed out is whether they can continue to avoid surrendering hard contact -- the home runs, the extra base hits -- with those runners on base.

Overall, I don't think he was as resistant to change as most people believe, it still took until the point of having multiple 90-loss seasons before playing the percentages in this case. Not that it would have changed the outcome of those seasons or his ultimate dismissal but I wouldn't consider him a champion of change.

When Paul Molitor joined the Minnesota Twins’ coaching staff in 2014, one of his biggest initiatives was to add a robust shift program for the defense. With experience at all the infield positions over his career, Molitor recognized the advantage gained by stacking his fielders. “He’s really big on shifts,” Brian Dozier said when asked about Molitor's penchant to play the odds. “He loves shifting. And it’s a part of the game now, you see it more than ever in the history of the game. I don’t know if a lot of people like it, dislike it, whatever it is, but Molly loves shifting and we’ve bought into that and especially this so you’re going to see a lot of different shifts.”In reality, the Twins were well behind the curve when it came to the use of the shift. As far back as 2004, Baseball Info Solutions was offering packages to teams to help them align their infields in shifts. Most organizations found it difficult to eschew tradition. It wasn’t until about 2009 that the Tampa Bay Rays began to see the value. More and more other teams joined the Rays. It took until 2014 for the Twins to throw their hats in the ring. With Molitor now in charge of the entire on-field operation, the question was raised if he would have time to focus on that aspect of the game as he did so well as a coach last year. After all, the Twins’ analytics team lauded Molitor for using both the available data and video necessary to implement a strategy that would include the use of defensive shifts. Overnight, the Twins went from using the three-man infield shift 31 times in 2013 to 327 times in 2014. Now the responsibility for positioning players in the field would be handed to third base coach Gene Glynn. Glynn is the person in the dugout charged with routing and re-routing his fielders. Sometime it is shading a bit here, bringing the outfield in or sending Trevor Plouffe on a short jog to the other side of the infield world. He is the guy at the pre-game and pre-series meetings reviewing the charts, data and scouting reports in order to help concoct a defensive game plan. Now in his 11th season as a third base coach, Glynn spent several years as a pro scout in the Rays organization during the height of their Extra 2% craze. Perhaps it was experience within an analytic-influenced organization that helped convince him of the benefits of playing the percentages but when Glynn took charge as manager of the Rochester Red Wings, he brought with him the tendency to employ the shift. It is a bold move, to be sure. Information on players in the minor leagues is often lacking. Some players have an extended stay but others make a brief appearance and are on to other teams or other leagues. Procuring the proper data is a challenge. “Mostly it was information done on the scouting reports that came through the office of the Twins. Then they did a lot of work to get us that information,” Glynn said of the distribution of knowledge. In addition to the flow coming from the front office, Glynn and his staff would keep diligent spray charts on the league’s players. If an opposing player happened to be still with the team on the next meeting, they would incorporate those findings and move their infielders accordingly. This is a more recent phenomenon in the Twins organization. When Dozier was ascending the system as a shortstop, he did not have any experience in the overshift situation. “When I was coming up we never shifted,” said Dozier. “We would shade guys. Step-pull, two steps pull, that kind of stuff. But as far as shifting we never did that.” Part of the reason was the parent club's long-time lack of interest. The other part is simply the archaic data available. Deciding to shift without the proper data is like choosing to hit on an 18 because you like the song that is playing in the casino. “We didn't have the statistical information or graphs that come out on where guys hit balls off righties or lefties or in two-strike situations,” Glynn said. Some of the decision to move guys around came from some gut modeling, Glynn admits, but even the basic data can help reveal a lot about a hitter. That, and truths he learned over a lifetime in the game. “If you are a pull hitter, you are pretty much a pull hitter. And you live with the one or two that they happen to spray that way because they are late or the velocity is greater with some pitchers but again, we try to make that adjustment because we have that knowledge.” Whereas the next generation of Twins infielders will have been exposed to the shift alignment at the minor league levels, the current crop of infielders had to get used to the new positioning in the majors. Was that a difficult task? Third baseman Trevor Plouffe just smiles when he thinks about his responsibility on the overshift plays. “You got a lot of time,” he said with the inflection of a man who appreciates the reprieve from ground rockets hit his direction less than ninety feet away from a batter. “So that’s a position where when I am over there just smother the ball and throw to first base.” But even as the Twins ramped up their use of the big shifts in 2014 -- using the three-man infield for 327 match-ups -- Plouffe said he never got to smother a single ball in live-game action. That changed earlier this season when the first ball came his direction at Target Field as he stood on the right side of the second base bag. The former middle infielder handled the play flawlessly. Several feet to his right and positioned midway between the infield and the right fielder is the usual spot for second baseman Brian Dozier. Of all the shift configurations, the second baseman may have to play the most out of position. Rather than grass infield-dirt, the batted ball now travels grass infield-dirt-grass outfield before it reaches the player. That’s just one more layer of things to go wrong. Plus, you have to make a throw from shallow right. http://i.imgur.com/llCnvXW.gif “The toughest thing for me is obviously you see a lot with big lefties and stuff and I’m back in shallow right field sometimes and your exact positioning is not always perfect but obviously we do it, everyone does it to get a better percentage.” There are plenty of other challenges to get used to when shifting, like responsibilities when there are runners on the bases. “I don't think everything is concrete when it comes to the shift,” Glynn said of the different roles of the infielders. “It's a team effort, really, some assignments might change. Is the catcher going to cover third when the shortstop goes or the third baseman help turn the double play with the ball hit to him but he's up the middle now.” “One of the main things is when you are shifting is ‘know your runner’,” said Dozier. “How much time. You see me, you take double play depth you are supposed to play in and over and closer to the bag. But if Victor Martinez is up I’m almost 90 feet from the bag. That means I don’t have coverage.” It takes some getting used to, said Dozier, but he has bought in to the strategy. However, as a guy who considers himself anti-sabermetrics, he acknowledges that the human element sometimes has to trump what the numbers say. “You gotta have a feel for the game,” Dozier said. “If we’re playing Big Papi in right -- I’m playing him in shallow right -- but I see he has slow hands on the day, you gotta go against odds and you gotta have feel for the game where I’m not going to play him deep.” Download attachment: Twins And Shift.png The Twins have now shifted 107 times in 31 games and are on pace to obliterate last year’s useage. Has it worked? In the early going, the shifting has led to a slightly lower batting average on balls compared to the rest of the teams. On the notion that the aggressive shifting is able saving a single, Glynn summarized the team’s position on the matter in a refreshing way. “If can give us an edge of saving even one hit, it's important. I'm all in when it comes to information like that.” Click here to view the article

On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman talk about the team with the best home record in the American League and wonder how long the good times with last. Listen up.Other topics include mother's day activities, the Vikings quarterback going to prom and the worst possible way to reheat a pizza. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #55: IS THIS TEAM GOOD OR WHAT? Click here to view the article

Good stats usage discussion topic out of this: I'm going to start with RBI is not worthless. It is just a counting stat. Certainly isn't predictive or provides any context to the performance but, like pitching wins (boo, hiss) it just tallies an event. Like those wins which requires a pitcher's offense to score more runs than the other team, RBI require teammates reaching base. Even with the factors out of a player's control, a pitcher or hitter still has to execute at some level in order to achieve those results. Don't use it as a predictive stat. Don't use it to say someone is good because they reached a certain milestone. Don't use it to compare one player to another. The Clutch metric, on the other hand, is good in a large sampling and puts less emphasis on a 3-run home run hit at the end of a 18-2 ballgame. Plouffe's positive clutch rating so far this year indicates that he's come through in some big spots. It's a great stat to use at a glace to see if a player's been contributing in key moments. However, say someone hits a well timed walk-off home run like the Cardinals' Kolton Wong did the other night, the Clutch metric shoots sky-high. Or take Adam Eaton of the White Sox. He is currently batting .200/.250/.267 with no runs driven in but he has a higher Clutch figure than Plouffe at this point. Like RBI, it too is not useful as a predictive stat. Hitters who were clutch one year are not the next and vice versa. RBI is just how often he's done it while Clutch is in what capacity he has done it. When it comes down to it in most cases, a pitcher is not treating any situation with a runner in scoring position any different from the 1st inning to the 9th. No one wants to let that runner score. Data shows that pitchers often change their pitch mix to favor breaking balls (swing and miss pitches) when runners are in scoring position. Hitters like Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas have struggled in those situations for a reason -- they swing-and-miss a lot and expand the strike zone. Good hitters are able to put those balls in play in a way that gets a runner home and better hitters are able to put those balls in play in a way that gets a runner home AND puts them on base. /stat nerd out

Good question. There is a minimum but I'm not entirely sure what that is.

Before the 2015 season began, Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor discussed his options for cleanup hitter. His first choice he said would be Torii Hunter. Based on Hunter’s experience, approach and ability to put the ball in play, Molitor felt like the veteran would be a sound run producer. Behind Hunter, Molitor listed Trevor Plouffe as another candidate for the meat-of-the-order role. Players like Kennys Vargas or Oswaldo Arcia, with their game-changing swings and imposing presence in the batter's box, have the appearance of an archetype cleanup hitter yet Molitor felt their approach did not match that of what should be a run producer's approach. Someday, sure, but their all-or-nothing swings would leave them tied in knots in valuable RBI opportunities.Yes, Mr. RBIs-Are-Overrated-Guy, RBIs are overrated and explain little toward a hitter's true abilities, plus require the players in the lineup ahead of him to get on base. Still, there are guys that fail to drive in runs for various reasons when faced with RBI opportunities. In 2014, the Twins lineup had several talented power-hitters that they viewed as trying to do too much -- swinging for the fences when a well-placed grounder would have done the trick. Instead, the at-bat would conclude in a strikeout. Once upon a time, Trevor Plouffe was that type of hitter. He would swing from his heels trying to drive himself and the run in on one pitch. Seemingly overnight, Plouffe improved his production and in 2014 he led the team in RBIs with 80. Now he is the guy you want at the plate with a runner in scoring position. Quick history lesson: early in his career right-handed pitchers had Plouffe's number like Tommy Tutone had Jenny's. From 2011 through 2013, he struck out in 22% of his plate appearances while chasing balls out of the zone at a near 30% clip against righties. His .673 OPS was well below the. 727 OPS that other right-handed hitters averaged when facing righties. Despite the disappointing performance against righties, his success against left-handed pitching helped buoy his overall numbers and kept him in the lineup continuously in that time. The young version of Trevor Plouffe figured that if you turned on an inside pitch, you could send the ball on a direct flight to the outfield bleachers the quickest. That philosophy helped him hammer out 46 home runs in his mid-twenties. Of course, pitchers and scouts recognized this trait and peppered him with a steady diet of offspeed offerings away which sent him into chase mode as he still tried to pull everything. His power binges were filled with spats of strikeouts. Last year, however, Plouffe began to understand what was happening and how pitchers were setting him up. He knew couldn’t survive taking the giant swing at every pitch. “I know for me they like to show me [fastball] in and then go soft away,” Plouffe said. He would have to look at the outer-half as his zone as well and he could no longer continue to turn that ball over. As a middle-of-the-order bat rife with RBI opportunities, he accepted that his approach had to be focused on putting the ball in play and get that runner to cross the plate -- even if it meant slapping a grounder to second or sending a can-o-corn to right field. “In those big situations where there are runners on base last year Bruno and I talked about using that whole field, just take what they give,” said Plouffe reflecting back on what he felt was the moment that made him a better hitter. “When you get up there you are going to want to get those runs in no matter what, any way you can.” The focus on covering the far reaches of the strike zone eventually translated into power the other way. “Once I got the hang of that it was alright, let’s drive some balls over there. I think that make you a more complete hitter.” As his career has progressed, his power numbers going to right have increased dramatically. In 2012 he posted a .333 slugging percentage to the opposite field. That dropped to .284 in 2013 but ramped up incredibly to .422 last season as he began to bang doubles off the wall. This season? He is posting a robust .556 slugging so far. There’s an element of respect when a hitter demonstrates he can use the entire field. Defenses are not able to shade or shift regularly. Pitchers are not as confident in where they should attack. Teams still adhere to the hard in/soft away tactic with Plouffe but now the Twins’ third baseman is ready. Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (1).png Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid.png The experienced Plouffe appears ready for whatever a pitcher wants to throw at him. Plouffe admits he still hunts for inside fastballs but he has hit five of his home runs on five different types of pitches (fastball, change, slider, curve and cutter) varying in speed and location. In contrast, 10 of his 14 home runs in 2012 came on fastballs. Beyond that, Plouffe has increased his walk rate over the last several seasons which has shown that (1) pitchers are more inclined to pitch around him rather than let him beat them and (2) he is mature enough not to expand the strike zone. When it comes to hitting, the Twins coaching staff stresses understanding the process: recognizing what pitchers are doing to you and what you are doing in response to that. Some players develop that early in their careers and some, like Plouffe in his late twenties, it may take a little bit longer. So far in 2015, it has been worth the wait. Click here to view the article

Do you have any links to that? I remember the narrative being that he might be a DH full-time right away but not that he wouldn't be able to hit.

113 mph according to the StatsCast data. According to BaseballSavant.com, he's managed to drive the ball over 110 mph three times -- only 20 hitters have done that this year -- one was the home run, the other two were double plays. He hit the ball hard last year too with the minimal movement mechanics, he's definitely strong.

It is an assortment of things that is leading to the swing-and-misses. Pitch recognition is one. His timing has been scattered. He gets his front foot down at different times on different pitches. His head moves a ton as well as he swings. Going back to the minimal movement would help reduce all that but it is about comfort for the player. If Vargas feels more comfortable with the leg kick, he's going to keep using it.