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Everything posted by Parker Hageman
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Article: On Danny Santana And Regression
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Interestingly enough, since 2009 line drive BABIP has the lowest correlation between the overall BABIP -- i.e. high line drive BABIP did not necessary equal a high overall BABIP -- and that ground ball BABIP was a stronger correlation. Liners obvious become hits at a higher percentage but it makes sense considering there are much more grounders vs liners in play. Just found that interesting when looking over the data. Going back to Santana's line drive%, I'm not certain it will remain that much higher than league average going forward. Since 2011, he's minor league line drive% was 13%. I would anticipate that his 2015 season has a line drive rate somewhere closer to 20%. There's an element of opponents adjusting to him. He struggled with breaking pitches but he didn't see a lot of them (pitchers tend not to throw switch-hitters a high percentage of breaking balls that go into the swing). Likewise for fastballs up-and-in when he is batting left-handed. I would expect him to see a few more of those in 2015. -
Article: Alex Meyer's Wild Ride
Parker Hageman replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins noted that last year Meyer's arm slot began to drop prior to having to be shut down. This is actually an improvement over what that was: Here's another capture of his arm slot from early 2014: One interesting difference from Meyer last year to Meyer in camp is that he is finishing differently. Last year, he was a pitcher who swung everything around to the glove side and fell off towards the first base line. In camp he seems to be trying to finish north-south/in line with the plate. Seems to be fighting the finish. I'll try to whip up some GIFs on that at some point. Overall, consistency always will be an issue for him. -
Paul Molitor recently shared the characteristics he is looking for in an ideal leadoff hitter: They enjoy long walks on the beach and an on-base percentage that is .370 or higher. While Molitor might have difficulty finding that type of player within the Twins’ roster -- just 19 players managed to produce OBP .370 or above last year -- his rationale behind that statement is a welcomed bit of logic in Twins Territory. After all, his predecessor fell in love with batting Jacque Jones first because “he can make it 1-0”, inferring the solo home run would put the Twins up quickly (to his credit, Jones did hit 20 career home runs as the first batter of the game). The former manager also had a penchant for placing speed above all when it came to filling out his lineup at the top. Hearing Molitor's preference for on-base abilities over speed was a breath of fresh air.Of course, Molitor also indicated that he is counting on Danny Santana to play a vital role at the top of the order. "I see Danny at the top for the most part to be honest with you,” the new manager told Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson recently. “Because I like the dimension he brings to that spot." Based on Santana’s rookie season, it is not difficult to see the reason to want to put him at the top spot but if the actual desire is to have a hitter with a .370+ OBP batting leadoff, Santana is probably not the right candidate. The Twins organization obviously expects regression. "Historically my gut tells me that it's not sustainable because he didn't put up those kinds of numbers in the minor leagues," general manager Terry Ryan said last fall regarding Santana's future. "If you're going to be true to yourself and what you know has happened with historically 95 percent of the players, you've got to expect a little bit of a back-off of those numbers, but that would be plenty good enough." Dating back to 1961* Santana has had the third highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Read that again: Dating back to the John F. Kennedy administration, Santana has been able to reach safely when putting the bat on the ball more frequently than all but two people. Given the amount of scouting, video, and data available in this era to figure out how to pitch to and defend against hitters, it is somewhat remarkable that there are hitters now who can put the ball in play and it winds up a hit 40% of the time. What is even more remarkable is that there were two last year who managed to do that: Download attachment: Danny Santana_BABIP.png Santana, of course, and Colorado’s Drew Stubbs were the two players joining Cincinnati’s Joey Votto (2012), Jose Hernandez (2002) and Manny Ramirez (2000) to achieve a batting average on balls in play over .400 since the turn of the last century. To contextualize: Since the 1961 season, there have been 33 occasions when a hitter with a minimum of 400 plate appearances has managed to produce/get blessed with a BABIP over .390 in a season. That is a small pool of players. The pool grows even smaller when you consider that four players managed to reach that milestone twice in their careers (Bobby Abreu, Derek Jeter, Roberto Clemente, and Rod Carew). Only Abreu managed to perform the feat in consecutive seasons (1998 and 1999). While there are legendary hitters on that list like the aforementioned Jeter, Carew and Clemente, there are plenty of other one-hit wonders that managed to catch lightning in a bottle. There’s Reggie Jefferson who had a breakout year with Boston in 1996. Milwaukee’s Hernandez reached the list by limiting the number of balls he put into play (he struck out 188 times that season). Shane Mack, Mariano Duncan, BJ Upton, Phil Bradley -- there’s no rhyme or reason to this list. The takeaway is that batting average on balls in play is comprised of some element of luck. You can be a great hitter with amazing speed like Ichiro Suzuki and manage to obtain a .390 BABIP just once in a 14 year career. Or you could be like Jefferson who, in 1996, figured out that if you can bang it off the Monster it won’t get caught and it will stay in play. This is all to say that repeating the numbers Santana posted 2014 feels virtually impossible -- like finding a place that serves decent unicorn burgers. (So hard to find in the western suburbs.) It takes an uniquely talented hitter with a special level of luck to repeat that sort of action. So the question is: Is Danny Santana a uniquely talented hitter? Ryan said his evaluators like Santana’s surprising power potential. “I think the one thing that people didn’t realize up here that hadn’t seen him, he’s got strength,” Ryan said after last season. “He can drive the ball. He’s not a banjo hitter, he’s not a singles guy. He can drive the ball from both sides. He can reach the fences so he’s going to keep the defenses honest.” Santana’s power is an interesting facet of his game. When you look over his spray chart, a high percentage of his extra base hits go down the lines rather than in the gaps. If outfielders/corner infielders hug the lines, this opens up the gaps and middle of the field more for the base hits. However, Santana has not demonstrated the consistent ability to reach the fences, which would entice the outfield to play back and give him more real estate just outside of the infield. His speed is clearly one of the biggest assets of his arsenal. This has given him the ability to take an extra base as well as get to first when others might not. According to Fangraphs.com, 12.7% of his hits did not leave the infield, meaning he had to turn on the afterburners and kick chalk in a hurry to reach safely. Like this: http://i.imgur.com/WmGjMV1.gif Both he and Stubbs excelled at having grounders find their way through the infield (or as mentioned above, beating the throw down the line). This trait correlates well with overall BABIP success and when you break it down, it makes sense. The ground ball is the most common method the ball is put into play (compared to line drive and fly ball) so having a high percentage that go for hits will bolster the overall BABIP: Download attachment: Santana_Chart.png Via ESPN/TruMedia. But counting on getting hits via ground ball is volatile -- since 2009 hitters have posted a batting average in play of .257 on wormburners. That being said, those with wheels have been able to produce consistently above average in that category. Danny Santana certainly fits that mold but his otherworldly ground ball BABIP is due for regression to the mean. In addition to being able to beat out grounders, Santana is a fairly skilled bunter when it comes to bunting for a hit. More likely to bunt from the left-side of the plate (17 of 18 attempts in 2014), Santana has both been able to deaden the ball in the third base-pitcher-catcher no-man’s land or take it with him like this: http://i.imgur.com/UaZIfqM.gif These are the finer points in Santana’s game that will help him gain hits within the margins but when it comes to his on-base percentage, with his above-average strikeout rate in conjunction with his below-average walk rate, he has little wiggle room to avoid regression. Without a robust walk rate, he lacks the stability that free passes provide. In summary, this was a lot of energy spent to say, yes, expect Danny Santana to regress at the plate in 2015. He still has a strong skill set that should help him continue to gather plenty of hits. *Arbitrary? Sure. Whatever. Finish your taco. Click here to view the article
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Of course, Molitor also indicated that he is counting on Danny Santana to play a vital role at the top of the order. "I see Danny at the top for the most part to be honest with you,” the new manager told Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson recently. “Because I like the dimension he brings to that spot." Based on Santana’s rookie season, it is not difficult to see the reason to want to put him at the top spot but if the actual desire is to have a hitter with a .370+ OBP batting leadoff, Santana is probably not the right candidate. The Twins organization obviously expects regression. "Historically my gut tells me that it's not sustainable because he didn't put up those kinds of numbers in the minor leagues," general manager Terry Ryan said last fall regarding Santana's future. "If you're going to be true to yourself and what you know has happened with historically 95 percent of the players, you've got to expect a little bit of a back-off of those numbers, but that would be plenty good enough." Dating back to 1961* Santana has had the third highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Read that again: Dating back to the John F. Kennedy administration, Santana has been able to reach safely when putting the bat on the ball more frequently than all but two people. Given the amount of scouting, video, and data available in this era to figure out how to pitch to and defend against hitters, it is somewhat remarkable that there are hitters now who can put the ball in play and it winds up a hit 40% of the time. What is even more remarkable is that there were two last year who managed to do that: Santana, of course, and Colorado’s Drew Stubbs were the two players joining Cincinnati’s Joey Votto (2012), Jose Hernandez (2002) and Manny Ramirez (2000) to achieve a batting average on balls in play over .400 since the turn of the last century. To contextualize: Since the 1961 season, there have been 33 occasions when a hitter with a minimum of 400 plate appearances has managed to produce/get blessed with a BABIP over .390 in a season. That is a small pool of players. The pool grows even smaller when you consider that four players managed to reach that milestone twice in their careers (Bobby Abreu, Derek Jeter, Roberto Clemente, and Rod Carew). Only Abreu managed to perform the feat in consecutive seasons (1998 and 1999). While there are legendary hitters on that list like the aforementioned Jeter, Carew and Clemente, there are plenty of other one-hit wonders that managed to catch lightning in a bottle. There’s Reggie Jefferson who had a breakout year with Boston in 1996. Milwaukee’s Hernandez reached the list by limiting the number of balls he put into play (he struck out 188 times that season). Shane Mack, Mariano Duncan, BJ Upton, Phil Bradley -- there’s no rhyme or reason to this list. The takeaway is that batting average on balls in play is comprised of some element of luck. You can be a great hitter with amazing speed like Ichiro Suzuki and manage to obtain a .390 BABIP just once in a 14 year career. Or you could be like Jefferson who, in 1996, figured out that if you can bang it off the Monster it won’t get caught and it will stay in play. This is all to say that repeating the numbers Santana posted 2014 feels virtually impossible -- like finding a place that serves decent unicorn burgers. (So hard to find in the western suburbs.) It takes an uniquely talented hitter with a special level of luck to repeat that sort of action. So the question is: Is Danny Santana a uniquely talented hitter? Ryan said his evaluators like Santana’s surprising power potential. “I think the one thing that people didn’t realize up here that hadn’t seen him, he’s got strength,” Ryan said after last season. “He can drive the ball. He’s not a banjo hitter, he’s not a singles guy. He can drive the ball from both sides. He can reach the fences so he’s going to keep the defenses honest.” Santana’s power is an interesting facet of his game. When you look over his spray chart, a high percentage of his extra base hits go down the lines rather than in the gaps. If outfielders/corner infielders hug the lines, this opens up the gaps and middle of the field more for the base hits. However, Santana has not demonstrated the consistent ability to reach the fences, which would entice the outfield to play back and give him more real estate just outside of the infield. His speed is clearly one of the biggest assets of his arsenal. This has given him the ability to take an extra base as well as get to first when others might not. According to Fangraphs.com, 12.7% of his hits did not leave the infield, meaning he had to turn on the afterburners and kick chalk in a hurry to reach safely. Like this: http://i.imgur.com/WmGjMV1.gif Both he and Stubbs excelled at having grounders find their way through the infield (or as mentioned above, beating the throw down the line). This trait correlates well with overall BABIP success and when you break it down, it makes sense. The ground ball is the most common method the ball is put into play (compared to line drive and fly ball) so having a high percentage that go for hits will bolster the overall BABIP: Via ESPN/TruMedia. But counting on getting hits via ground ball is volatile -- since 2009 hitters have posted a batting average in play of .257 on wormburners. That being said, those with wheels have been able to produce consistently above average in that category. Danny Santana certainly fits that mold but his otherworldly ground ball BABIP is due for regression to the mean. In addition to being able to beat out grounders, Santana is a fairly skilled bunter when it comes to bunting for a hit. More likely to bunt from the left-side of the plate (17 of 18 attempts in 2014), Santana has both been able to deaden the ball in the third base-pitcher-catcher no-man’s land or take it with him like this: http://i.imgur.com/UaZIfqM.gif These are the finer points in Santana’s game that will help him gain hits within the margins but when it comes to his on-base percentage, with his above-average strikeout rate in conjunction with his below-average walk rate, he has little wiggle room to avoid regression. Without a robust walk rate, he lacks the stability that free passes provide. In summary, this was a lot of energy spent to say, yes, expect Danny Santana to regress at the plate in 2015. He still has a strong skill set that should help him continue to gather plenty of hits. *Arbitrary? Sure. Whatever. Finish your taco.
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Article: Offense Is Springing To Life
Parker Hageman replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Part of me doesn't want to open this can of worms given the sample-size and spring training in general, but Joe Mauer has not done well at the plate in his 18 plate appearances. [18 plate appearances?! Geez. Now that I see it in print it seems even more absurd.] No one seems to be mentioning this from the team's perspective -- is he getting good swings? Hitting the ball well at people? Not swinging well? Be nice for an update in that regard. I'll hang up and listen to you guys. -
Article: Offense Is Springing To Life
Parker Hageman replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Is this in reference to his spring performance or his .288/.345/.383 line last year? If it's towards the .357/.429/.429 spring line, yeah, sure. Inevitable. But the 2014 numbers? Meh. I'm not certain it is "inevitable". Those 2014 numbers were definitely supported by the hot start -- and I've banged this drum a lot -- but the mechanical changes he made to his swing after his trade to Oakland gave him better plate coverage. Will his BABIP remain over .300? No, probably not. That might be inevitable. But if he continues to avoid fly balls like he did last season, there's no reason his BABIP has to regress too far below .270-.280. In my opinion, the drop off from August on seemed to be simply wearing down. Catching takes its toll, particularly when you are on the wrong side of 30. What would be beneficial is to mix in Pinto (or whoever) more frequently during the first-half of the season in order to keep Suzuki fresh throughout the season. Overall, I'd bet the under on his 2015 numbers but I'm not expecting a collapse. -
Will the Twins trade Eduardo Escobar? Does Eddie Rosario have a legitimate shot at center field? Would sending Alex Meyer down to Rochester to start the season be the smart decision? On this week's No Juice Podcast -- recorded at JL Beers in Northeast Minneapolis -- Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss these topics and more. Listen up and win $10 in Burger Bucks from JL Beers.After a chat with JL Beers’ Mike Evans, they introduce MinnCentric’s newest site, Northern Pitch — a soccer website that started off with a bang last week by breaking some big news — and give a farewell to Christian Ponder and Greg Jennings. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #47: TRYOUTS Click here to view the article
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After a chat with JL Beers’ Mike Evans, they introduce MinnCentric’s newest site, Northern Pitch — a soccer website that started off with a bang last week by breaking some big news — and give a farewell to Christian Ponder and Greg Jennings. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #47: TRYOUTS
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That was the statement Minnesota Twins outfielder Torii Hunter told MLB Network Radio’s Steve Phillips on Sunday. Hunter, a veteran of 18 years in the majors, made it clear that he had offers coming in from multiple teams that made it to the postseason or were contending to the end. The Orioles, Royals and Mariners were all reaching out for him. In the end, however, the lure of his original team proved too strong.“When I started talking to the Twins I had a relationship with [general manager] Terry Ryan and we just had a great conversation, man, and Eddie Guardado called me, he’s the bullpen coach now, and he’s talking about how much fun we can make this clubhouse,” Hunter told MLB Network Radio the reason why he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota rather than pursue pennants. “You know you’re talking about a place where I grew up and played 15 years in this organization and got to know everybody in this organization so this is where I learned how to be a Major League baseball player and not just that - to be a man and earn how to pay bills and financial literacy and all these different things. So I had flashbacks and I was thinking about all of that and I said ‘OK, I’m gonna come back and finish my career here.’” From the Twins’ perspective Hunter’s experience and ability to connect with the younger players played a role in their decision to target him. “We like his play but just as important we needed a presence and a little and I think guys like [byron] Buxton, [Eddie] Rosario and [Oswaldo] Arcia, those types of outfielders, will gravitate towards Torii,” general manager Terry Ryan told the show over the weekend. When asked if that career will be finished at the end of 2015, Hunter was coy. Performance and the Twins’ willingness to bring him back will be the determining factor. “If I go out and I hit .280-plus and put up 17 home runs like I been doing the last couple of years and do 80 RBIs or more, I’m coming back,” Hunter said. “I gotta get this out of my system. Who wouldn’t want those numbers to have on their team? And if I can come back and the Twins allow me back, I’ll come back again as long as I retire in a Twins uniform.” At 38-years-old, Hunter has experienced some declining defense over the past several seasons and has shifted to right field but offensively he has managed to stay above average in production while losing ground in the on-base percentage department. Even if Hunter does hit the milestones he mentioned it is difficult to see the Twins, who have a glut of outfield prospects, bringing him back in 2016. Click here to view the article
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“When I started talking to the Twins I had a relationship with [general manager] Terry Ryan and we just had a great conversation, man, and Eddie Guardado called me, he’s the bullpen coach now, and he’s talking about how much fun we can make this clubhouse,” Hunter told MLB Network Radio the reason why he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota rather than pursue pennants. “You know you’re talking about a place where I grew up and played 15 years in this organization and got to know everybody in this organization so this is where I learned how to be a Major League baseball player and not just that - to be a man and earn how to pay bills and financial literacy and all these different things. So I had flashbacks and I was thinking about all of that and I said ‘OK, I’m gonna come back and finish my career here.’” From the Twins’ perspective Hunter’s experience and ability to connect with the younger players played a role in their decision to target him. “We like his play but just as important we needed a presence and a little and I think guys like [byron] Buxton, [Eddie] Rosario and [Oswaldo] Arcia, those types of outfielders, will gravitate towards Torii,” general manager Terry Ryan told the show over the weekend.When asked if that career will be finished at the end of 2015, Hunter was coy. Performance and the Twins’ willingness to bring him back will be the determining factor. “If I go out and I hit .280-plus and put up 17 home runs like I been doing the last couple of years and do 80 RBIs or more, I’m coming back,” Hunter said. “I gotta get this out of my system. Who wouldn’t want those numbers to have on their team? And if I can come back and the Twins allow me back, I’ll come back again as long as I retire in a Twins uniform.” At 38-years-old, Hunter has experienced some declining defense over the past several seasons and has shifted to right field but offensively he has managed to stay above average in production while losing ground in the on-base percentage department. Even if Hunter does hit the milestones he mentioned it is difficult to see the Twins, who have a glut of outfield prospects, bringing him back in 2016.
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Article: Corey Koskie Comments On 2015 Twins
Parker Hageman replied to Lindsey Young's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Fun read Lindsey. Thanks. Did you guys talk about the concussion at all?- 11 replies
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No question. This could all collapse on him too -- we've only seen a few swings in spring. Pitchers could adjust to that and find a way to disrupt his timing there too. However, in my opinion, changing his timing mechanism and adding what could result in more power in his swing is a step in the right direction.
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Each time I post a video comparison I hope I don't have to provide a disclaim each time that, yes, circumstances are different. You are not going to get the situations to match 100% of the time. Both are fastballs. The first is middle-up. The second is away-middle. That said, in each project I study as much video as I can to provide examples of the overall differences in the swing. Here's the thing that you should take away -- he was unable hold up with the toe-tap far too often resulting in swings like the one above because of his front side leak (watch the action on his front hip open up): http://i.imgur.com/JHhf3Jt.gif The leg kick, in theory, should help him keep his weight back and provide a better timing mechanism.
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After a season and a half of floundering against right-handed pitching, Minnesota Twins’ outfielder Aaron Hicks made the decision to stop switch-hitting and bat exclusively from the right side. Several pitches later, the outfielder admitted he made a huge mistake and went back to swinging from both sides.With right-handed pitchers accounting for 70 to 75 percentage of all plate appearances each year, it was clear that in order to have success at the major league level Hicks was going to have to figure out a way to get hits off of them. The decision to stop hitting left-handed -- even for a brief stint -- was an acknowledgment that he was overmatched and lost at the plate. The brief experiment of hitting from the right-side only fizzled out not because his swing was bad but because Hicks realized that it is difficult to track professional-grade pitches from a perspective he had not seen since he was 15-years-old. The decision to return to switch-hitting was an admission that he would never going to be able to have success facing same-side matchups. If he was going to overcome this deficiency, it was going to be as a left-handed hitter -- which would be no small task. Earlier in the offseason Hicks’ shortcomings at the plate were highlighted at Twins Daily. His left-handed swing mechanics were such that he would open on his front side well before the point of contact, leaving him unable to generate power or handle pitches on the outer half of the zone. From both sides of the plate, Hicks has good bat speed. He has decent size and seemingly adds more muscle with each passing offseason. In theory he should be able to provide pop. In practice, however, he has not. According to ESPN/TruMedia, of all left-handed hitters with a minimum of 100 plate appearances, Hicks’ .078 hard hit average was the 7th lowest. For perspective, the light-hitting Ben Revere managed to post a .115 hard hit average. On the other end of the spectrum was Kennys Vargas whose .230 hard hit average from the left side was only bested by David Ortiz and Victor Martinez. It seemed obvious that if Hicks is going to provide even league-average level production at the plate, he was going to need to make some wholesale changes -- maybe a timing mechanism or a complete rebuild. Turns out, that is exactly what he is doing. During the first spring training game against the Red Sox, Twins’ broadcaster Cory Provus mentioned that Hicks had been working on incorporating a leg kick in his left-handed swing. Indeed, Hicks had swapped out the old toe-tap for the bigger leg kick: http://i.imgur.com/79XVELf.gif http://i.imgur.com/ZCwTyrE.gif For Hicks, the new model is a much better swing. What does that mean going forward? Hitters like Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson are the poster players for the argument for the pro-leg kick contingent. Donaldson, a hitter who used to have a toe-tap much like Hicks, found that the leg kick helped his timing and his ability to generate power. While productive if a hitter can master it, there are times when the leg kick can become a detriment if everything else is not working in unison. Cubs’ prospect Mike Olt felt his big leg kick was hindering his bat path so he has cut down on the height in order to make other aspects of his swing work. Likewise, Robinson Cano had a leg kick coming up in the Yankees system but eschewed that for his current model. There is no one-size-fits-all swing mechanics. For Hicks, there are still plenty of moving parts to his approach at the plate including the mental side. Confidence, or lack thereof, was cited by manager Paul Molitor as one of the reasons Hicks has struggled so mightily at the plate. And what about away from the plate? So far this spring Hicks, according to the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller, was picked off of first and second in the same inning (but the play at first was ruled a balk). Meanwhile on Tuesday, Hicks had another baserunning gaffe when he forgot the situation and stopped halfway on an inning-ending fly ball to the outfield. Molitor yanked him from the game. Hicks, to his credit, is putting in the work and demonstrating that he wants to improve his game. Nevertheless, Byron Buxton has looked the part of a MLB-ready center fielder but after the lost year that was 2014 the Twins will rightfully send him down for more seasoning. If the speedy footsteps of Mr. Buxton looking to take the position does not provide extra motivation for Hicks in 2015, who knows what will. Click here to view the article
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With right-handed pitchers accounting for 70 to 75 percentage of all plate appearances each year, it was clear that in order to have success at the major league level Hicks was going to have to figure out a way to get hits off of them. The decision to stop hitting left-handed -- even for a brief stint -- was an acknowledgment that he was overmatched and lost at the plate. The brief experiment of hitting from the right-side only fizzled out not because his swing was bad but because Hicks realized that it is difficult to track professional-grade pitches from a perspective he had not seen since he was 15-years-old. The decision to return to switch-hitting was an admission that he would never going to be able to have success facing same-side matchups. If he was going to overcome this deficiency, it was going to be as a left-handed hitter -- which would be no small task. Earlier in the offseason Hicks’ shortcomings at the plate were highlighted at Twins Daily. His left-handed swing mechanics were such that he would open on his front side well before the point of contact, leaving him unable to generate power or handle pitches on the outer half of the zone. From both sides of the plate, Hicks has good bat speed. He has decent size and seemingly adds more muscle with each passing offseason. In theory he should be able to provide pop. In practice, however, he has not. According to ESPN/TruMedia, of all left-handed hitters with a minimum of 100 plate appearances, Hicks’ .078 hard hit average was the 7th lowest. For perspective, the light-hitting Ben Revere managed to post a .115 hard hit average. On the other end of the spectrum was Kennys Vargas whose .230 hard hit average from the left side was only bested by David Ortiz and Victor Martinez. It seemed obvious that if Hicks is going to provide even league-average level production at the plate, he was going to need to make some wholesale changes -- maybe a timing mechanism or a complete rebuild. Turns out, that is exactly what he is doing. During the first spring training game against the Red Sox, Twins’ broadcaster Cory Provus mentioned that Hicks had been working on incorporating a leg kick in his left-handed swing. Indeed, Hicks had swapped out the old toe-tap for the bigger leg kick: http://i.imgur.com/79XVELf.gif http://i.imgur.com/ZCwTyrE.gif For Hicks, the new model is a much better swing. What does that mean going forward? Hitters like Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson are the poster players for the argument for the pro-leg kick contingent. Donaldson, a hitter who used to have a toe-tap much like Hicks, found that the leg kick helped his timing and his ability to generate power. While productive if a hitter can master it, there are times when the leg kick can become a detriment if everything else is not working in unison. Cubs’ prospect Mike Olt felt his big leg kick was hindering his bat path so he has cut down on the height in order to make other aspects of his swing work. Likewise, Robinson Cano had a leg kick coming up in the Yankees system but eschewed that for his current model. There is no one-size-fits-all swing mechanics. For Hicks, there are still plenty of moving parts to his approach at the plate including the mental side. Confidence, or lack thereof, was cited by manager Paul Molitor as one of the reasons Hicks has struggled so mightily at the plate. And what about away from the plate? So far this spring Hicks, according to the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller, was picked off of first and second in the same inning (but the play at first was ruled a balk). Meanwhile on Tuesday, Hicks had another baserunning gaffe when he forgot the situation and stopped halfway on an inning-ending fly ball to the outfield. Molitor yanked him from the game. Hicks, to his credit, is putting in the work and demonstrating that he wants to improve his game. Nevertheless, Byron Buxton has looked the part of a MLB-ready center fielder but after the lost year that was 2014 the Twins will rightfully send him down for more seasoning. If the speedy footsteps of Mr. Buxton looking to take the position does not provide extra motivation for Hicks in 2015, who knows what will.
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The Twins Should Have Drafted Mark Prior
Parker Hageman commented on Kyle Eliason's blog entry in Kyle Eliason's Blog
Man. I was hoping this was just a troll job but you've used data and facts to support your claim.- 11 comments
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On this week's episode of the No Juice Podcast, Twins Daily's Seth Stohs joins the show live from Fort Myers to preview the upcoming Report From The Fort. The guys discuss the pitching talent in the farm system, the catching depth, a possible Brian Dozier extension and tinkering with Phil Hughes. Listen up.Other topics include a Kevin Garnett update, Nickelback cancelling on everyone, topping the Mall of America, and stealing the Alary's shuttle bus. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #46: LIVE FROM FORT MYERS, IT'S SETH STOHS Check out this special No Juice presentation: Torii Hunter in VETERAN LEADERSHIP Click here to view the article
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Other topics include a Kevin Garnett update, Nickelback cancelling on everyone, topping the Mall of America, and stealing the Alary's shuttle bus. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #46: LIVE FROM FORT MYERS, IT'S SETH STOHS Check out this special No Juice presentation: Torii Hunter in VETERAN LEADERSHIP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN-iPar9s2I
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Article: Josmil Pinto and the Frame Game
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Speaking towards the point I made about refining the catcher framing statistics, there was apparently a study conducted by Baseball Info Solutions for the Sloan Sports Conference which added some of the elements like counts, pitchers, command, etc. The entire gory study is found here (http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SSAC15-RP-Finalist-Who-is-responsible-for-a-called-strike.pdf) but the biggest takeaway is that even with all the filters applied Kurt Suzuki was still one of the worst framers in baseball last year.- 27 replies
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Article: Josmil Pinto and the Frame Game
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
We highly encourage dissatisfied readers to do the research and post a blog themselves.- 27 replies
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Article: Josmil Pinto and the Frame Game
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Catchers are worthless pieces of skin anyway. I say Robot Umpires and a giant ratty old mattress behind the plate to stop the pitch. Who's with me?- 27 replies
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Article: Josmil Pinto and the Frame Game
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think the comparison should be between these two instances. The real separation is that d'Arnuad's pitcher hit his target. Same goes with Suzuki's strike. Pinto's movement (lowering and lunging) doesn't do his pitcher any favors but the fact is the pitcher missed his target. A better test would be to see how Pinto receives the same pitch in the same position as d'Arnuad or vice versa. Other than that... #RobotUmpiresNow.- 27 replies
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Article: Josmil Pinto and the Frame Game
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Catchers have said that this is actually a trait that helps in getting more calls. From the Brewers' Jonathan Lucroy: And the Astros' Jason Castro: In the particular case of Pinto above, I think that the pitch locations are causing his angles in how he receives it. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see in video that he is not angling like Castro/Lucroy/d'Arnuad in those situations.- 27 replies
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Hoping to secure the role of backup catcher, Josmil Pinto realizes that he has areas of his game behind the plate he needed to work on. Earlier this week, we discussed his inability to control the run game. Another element of his defensive game -- the framing portion -- has also come under considerable criticism. According to the catcher framing stat found at StatCorner.com, Pinto finished the 2015 season as a bottom-10 receiver. He was deficient at both getting out-of-zone pitches to be called strikes as well as from keeping in-zone pitches from being called balls. This fact did not go unnoticed by his pitching staff. Is Pinto really that bad at framing as well?To begin, we really have to understand what we are talking about when it comes to “framing” and how Pinto would be good or bad at it. In a 2013 interview with Baseball Prospectus, former MLB umpire Jim McKean made an excellent observation about the practice. “Everybody says, ‘Oh, he’s a good framer, he’s a bad framer,’ and that’s just an entertainment word. It’s just, he caught the ball correctly,” McKean said. “As long as the ball is received steadily with a strong hand, then it’s a lot easier to see the pitches. And every time they do that and they go ‘Oh, he’s a good framer,’ well, no, he’s just catching the pitch correctly. That’s just my interpretation. And I was in the big league for about 30 years, so I’ve seen all sorts of catching, and good catching will make it easier for umpires to call more strikes.” From an umpire’s perspective that makes total sense. Little noise, little movement. When Glen Perkins told 1500ESPN listeners that Pinto struggled with pitches below or at the bottom of the zone, his observations were correct. The rookie catcher finished 78 out of 79 catchers in getting low pitches called strikes and the two examples below show why some of it is on him and some is on his pitcher. In this example, Pinto calls for a 3-2 fastball on the outer-half from reliever Casey Fien. Fien obliges and throws heat that clips a hair of the corner: Download attachment: Pinto_PitcherEx2.png Though by definition a strike, the umpire says it is a ball. Part of it might be on where Pinto caught it (see below) as well as the positioning of the umpire. In the interview with Baseball Prospectus, McKean said that the umpire’s positioning can put some areas of the strike zone in a blind spot. Like in the instance below, if he’s lined up on the inside of a hitter, the outer portion of the zone might be harder to track. In that situation, a catcher’s ability to receive the pitch correctly can mean the difference between a ball and a strike. Download attachment: Pinto_Ball_9.5-2ex-Caught.png There are various reasons why a pitch’s outcome is considered a ball when it was actually in the zone. Believe it or not, some of it actually has to do with the pitcher as well. For example, while catching a Ricky Nolasco start against the Angels in early September, Pinto sets up on the outer-half calling for a slider. Nolasco misses his spot but manages to throw a decent slider that nicks the inside edge of the plate. Download attachment: Pinto_PitcherEx.png Data shows that the pitch crossed a portion of the plate -- albeit not by much. Still, Pinto is forced to shift back towards the inside and his reception of the ball does not do Nolasco any favors. “[T]he problem you run into is, when a catcher moves out there, you move out there a little bit with him,” said McKean. “Then they throw the ball inside, and it’s in the strike zone, and it looks like he’s diving to catch it. And that’s very difficult to call a strike on. You can do it, and most of the time the hitter’s going to look at you and say, ‘Jimmy, how can that be a strike? He’s diving back to catch it.’” While the umpire in this situation did not shift to the outside with Pinto, everything else mirrored what McKean described. Given the scenario it is hard to assign total blame on the catcher, yet the framing statistic would demerit Pinto in this instance. Download attachment: Pinto_Ball_9.5-Caught.png One takeaway about this pitch is that Pinto does not receive it that poorly. Yes, he tries to pull his glove up after catching the pitch but as McKean told Baseball Prospectus, catchers who fail to catch low pitches palm up (as seen in the image above) often will have that particular pitch called against them. In that regard, Pinto is probably not as technically bad as the Marlins’ Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The 29-year-old backstop earned the dubious honors of being the worst receiving catcher in 2014 based on the StatCorner.com’s pitch framing statistic (24.4 runs below average). Here is an example as to why he brings up the rear of the list. On a 3-2 count, his pitcher brings a knee-high strike which should end the at-bat in the Marlins’ favor. It is called a ball. Download attachment: Salty_Pitch.png Admittedly, the 95-mile per hour fastball has some sink to it, running the pitch back towards the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig but rather than grabbing it palm up, Saltalamacchia catches it, well, like this: Download attachment: Salty_Ball_Caught.png In this case, it is hard not to wonder whether if a different catcher had caught this middle-zone/knee-high pitch with minimal movement i it would have been called a strike. Let’s review another scenario. The New York Mets’ Travis d’Arnaud was considered one of game’s better receivers and well liked by his staff. "When the balls are down, he does something that makes them look like they're strikes," said the Mets’ Zack Wheeler in 2013. "It's ridiculous. I had a couple that I threw and I knew they were balls, but they looked like strikes after he framed them up." How ridiculous can he be? Take a look at the location of this pitch. Download attachment: dArnaud_Pitch.png There are several reasons that could explain why the umpire chose to expand his zone regardless of d’Anuard’s efforts. For starters, the Mets had just walked two batters in a row with the bases loaded. While umpires try to stay in the confines of the strike zone, they too are human and want to have the game end in under 17 hours. D'Anuard also caught the ball with minimal movement but his pitcher also hit his target making the reception less of a challenge than what Pinto and Saltalamacchia faced. Download attachment: dArnaud_Strike_Caught.png According to StatCorner.com, the Twins’ Kurt Suzuki remains one of the game’s worst framers as well. For whatever reason, Suzuki is unable to convince umpires that borderline pitches are strikes. That is, until two-strike situations. Whereas the average catcher was able to get a called strike on 3.7% of all out-of-zone takes with two-strikes, Suzuki coaxed strike three looking at a 5% clip -- only behind Boston’s David Ross and the Dodgers’ A.J. Ellis in that situation. Seems like that should count for a little bit more than a first-pitch strike. That said, Suzuki’s magic may simply be the skill of pitcher Phil Hughes. Hughes had a whopping 12% called strike rate on pitches out of the strike zone when there were two strikes. His cutter became an outstanding weapon that he deployed on left-handed hitters as such: http://i.imgur.com/hUtvBWn.gif Despite going around the plate, Hughes hit his target. Suzuki will receive positive points for framing even though the bulk of the work is done by Hughes’ pitching. “What a pitcher does has a lot to do with it,” Suzuki told me last spring training. “If he’s all over the place, he’s obviously not going to get those borderline calls, no matter how good you make it look. If you are around the plate consistently, you are going to get those calls. There’s definitely an art to it, you look at the Molinas, they are pretty good at what they do.” As McKean noted, the art of framing is actually the art of catching properly. In this context, Pinto has some work to do to become a better all-around defensive catcher. Umpires cannot be robots. The current catcher framing measurement system has plenty of flaws that give credit and punish receivers for mistakes of their pitchers. Umpires are influenced by reactions around them, positioning and because of biases. In a 3-0 count, a pitch out of the strike zone is likely to be called a strike 17% while a 0-2 pitch is likely to be called a ball 39% of the time. Until statisticians can factor in targeting and weigh the counts properly, catcher framing stats will remain imperfect. Click here to view the article
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To begin, we really have to understand what we are talking about when it comes to “framing” and how Pinto would be good or bad at it. In a 2013 interview with Baseball Prospectus, former MLB umpire Jim McKean made an excellent observation about the practice. “Everybody says, ‘Oh, he’s a good framer, he’s a bad framer,’ and that’s just an entertainment word. It’s just, he caught the ball correctly,” McKean said. “As long as the ball is received steadily with a strong hand, then it’s a lot easier to see the pitches. And every time they do that and they go ‘Oh, he’s a good framer,’ well, no, he’s just catching the pitch correctly. That’s just my interpretation. And I was in the big league for about 30 years, so I’ve seen all sorts of catching, and good catching will make it easier for umpires to call more strikes.” From an umpire’s perspective that makes total sense. Little noise, little movement. When Glen Perkins told 1500ESPN listeners that Pinto struggled with pitches below or at the bottom of the zone, his observations were correct. The rookie catcher finished 78 out of 79 catchers in getting low pitches called strikes and the two examples below show why some of it is on him and some is on his pitcher. In this example, Pinto calls for a 3-2 fastball on the outer-half from reliever Casey Fien. Fien obliges and throws heat that clips a hair of the corner: Though by definition a strike, the umpire says it is a ball. Part of it might be on where Pinto caught it (see below) as well as the positioning of the umpire. In the interview with Baseball Prospectus, McKean said that the umpire’s positioning can put some areas of the strike zone in a blind spot. Like in the instance below, if he’s lined up on the inside of a hitter, the outer portion of the zone might be harder to track. In that situation, a catcher’s ability to receive the pitch correctly can mean the difference between a ball and a strike. There are various reasons why a pitch’s outcome is considered a ball when it was actually in the zone. Believe it or not, some of it actually has to do with the pitcher as well. For example, while catching a Ricky Nolasco start against the Angels in early September, Pinto sets up on the outer-half calling for a slider. Nolasco misses his spot but manages to throw a decent slider that nicks the inside edge of the plate. Data shows that the pitch crossed a portion of the plate -- albeit not by much. Still, Pinto is forced to shift back towards the inside and his reception of the ball does not do Nolasco any favors. “[T]he problem you run into is, when a catcher moves out there, you move out there a little bit with him,” said McKean. “Then they throw the ball inside, and it’s in the strike zone, and it looks like he’s diving to catch it. And that’s very difficult to call a strike on. You can do it, and most of the time the hitter’s going to look at you and say, ‘Jimmy, how can that be a strike? He’s diving back to catch it.’” While the umpire in this situation did not shift to the outside with Pinto, everything else mirrored what McKean described. Given the scenario it is hard to assign total blame on the catcher, yet the framing statistic would demerit Pinto in this instance. One takeaway about this pitch is that Pinto does not receive it that poorly. Yes, he tries to pull his glove up after catching the pitch but as McKean told Baseball Prospectus, catchers who fail to catch low pitches palm up (as seen in the image above) often will have that particular pitch called against them. In that regard, Pinto is probably not as technically bad as the Marlins’ Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The 29-year-old backstop earned the dubious honors of being the worst receiving catcher in 2014 based on the StatCorner.com’s pitch framing statistic (24.4 runs below average). Here is an example as to why he brings up the rear of the list. On a 3-2 count, his pitcher brings a knee-high strike which should end the at-bat in the Marlins’ favor. It is called a ball. Admittedly, the 95-mile per hour fastball has some sink to it, running the pitch back towards the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig but rather than grabbing it palm up, Saltalamacchia catches it, well, like this: In this case, it is hard not to wonder whether if a different catcher had caught this middle-zone/knee-high pitch with minimal movement i it would have been called a strike. Let’s review another scenario. The New York Mets’ Travis d’Arnaud was considered one of game’s better receivers and well liked by his staff. "When the balls are down, he does something that makes them look like they're strikes," said the Mets’ Zack Wheeler in 2013. "It's ridiculous. I had a couple that I threw and I knew they were balls, but they looked like strikes after he framed them up." How ridiculous can he be? Take a look at the location of this pitch. There are several reasons that could explain why the umpire chose to expand his zone regardless of d’Anuard’s efforts. For starters, the Mets had just walked two batters in a row with the bases loaded. While umpires try to stay in the confines of the strike zone, they too are human and want to have the game end in under 17 hours. D'Anuard also caught the ball with minimal movement but his pitcher also hit his target making the reception less of a challenge than what Pinto and Saltalamacchia faced. According to StatCorner.com, the Twins’ Kurt Suzuki remains one of the game’s worst framers as well. For whatever reason, Suzuki is unable to convince umpires that borderline pitches are strikes. That is, until two-strike situations. Whereas the average catcher was able to get a called strike on 3.7% of all out-of-zone takes with two-strikes, Suzuki coaxed strike three looking at a 5% clip -- only behind Boston’s David Ross and the Dodgers’ A.J. Ellis in that situation. Seems like that should count for a little bit more than a first-pitch strike. That said, Suzuki’s magic may simply be the skill of pitcher Phil Hughes. Hughes had a whopping 12% called strike rate on pitches out of the strike zone when there were two strikes. His cutter became an outstanding weapon that he deployed on left-handed hitters as such: http://i.imgur.com/hUtvBWn.gif Despite going around the plate, Hughes hit his target. Suzuki will receive positive points for framing even though the bulk of the work is done by Hughes’ pitching. “What a pitcher does has a lot to do with it,” Suzuki told me last spring training. “If he’s all over the place, he’s obviously not going to get those borderline calls, no matter how good you make it look. If you are around the plate consistently, you are going to get those calls. There’s definitely an art to it, you look at the Molinas, they are pretty good at what they do.” As McKean noted, the art of framing is actually the art of catching properly. In this context, Pinto has some work to do to become a better all-around defensive catcher. Umpires cannot be robots. The current catcher framing measurement system has plenty of flaws that give credit and punish receivers for mistakes of their pitchers. Umpires are influenced by reactions around them, positioning and because of biases. In a 3-0 count, a pitch out of the strike zone is likely to be called a strike 17% while a 0-2 pitch is likely to be called a ball 39% of the time. Until statisticians can factor in targeting and weigh the counts properly, catcher framing stats will remain imperfect.
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