Parker Hageman

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman record from Christos Greek Restaurant in Minnetonka and discuss the recently released projections for the 2015 Minnesota Twins, Trevor Plouffe's improving defense, Phil Hughes' chances for regression as well as reminisce about the baseball card industry. Click to listen.Other topics include a review of Parker's birthday night out and being too optimistic about the Minnesota Vikings. Download attachment: Cards.jpg Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #39: PROJECTING THE TWINS Click here to view the article

Data versus the eye test is fun with Plouffe. Data at Fangraphs says he's 4th among qualified 3B in defense. The Runs Saved from Baseball Info Solutions says he's 12th. When run through SABR.org's SABR Defensive Index (which accounts for 25% of the Gold Glove vote), he wound up a top-4 defender in the LA. On the other hand, those that voted in Fangraphs' Fan Scouting Report had him as the 22nd defensive 3B overall. There clearly is a divide in the perception of his defense based on previous seasons versus what actually happened this season (created more outs, etc). Is he an elite defender? Probably not. Biggest takeaway should be that in 2014 almost every measurement was an improvement over the last season.

Trevor Plouffe’s 2014 was quietly impressive. With super prospect Miguel Sano out for the season with UCL surgery, there was little pressure on Plouffe’s job security. Some believed he would not be able to respond without the push but not only did the 28-year-old infielder make strides at the plate, supplying value in the lineup as a run producer, he turned a corner in the field as well.Lately the Twins have been lacking severely in the department of defense but Plouffe defensive capabilities were markedly improved in 2014 and the data backs that up. Mark Simon at ESPN Stats & Info passed along the critical defensive data that highlights in what areas the third baseman has improved: Simply put, Plouffe has increased the number of runs saved by reducing the number of errors and misplays (plays that don’t result in outs but are not necessarily errors), converting on more of the plays that are in a standard third baseman’s zone, and increasing the number of out-of-zone plays. According to BillJamesOnline.com, Plouffe finished ranked 12th among third basemen in runs saved. Ultimate Zone Rating says he was sixth. Inside Edge’s Fielding rated him 23rd in terms of making the plays right at him this season. While the last one might be a bitter pill, all of those stats show progress in his defense. He has come a long way since his inaugural season at third. What has led to this improvement? This first factor is better throws. Early in his career, a lot of misplays and errors were a product of his throws. He was coming off a season in which he made 11 throwing errors at short and continued that in 2012. In his first season at third, Plouffe demonstrated a side-arm slinging motion when throwing the ball across the diamond. That year, while playing 801 innings at third, he made eight throwing errors. That was the sixth most among third basemen with a minimum of 500 innings, yet the ones ahead of Plouffe found themselves with nearly twice as many chances. Additionally, after reviewing clips of his plays, opportunity for more errors were there had veteran first baseman Justin Morneau not saved some of his offline throws. Watch this play in which Plouffe makes a nice pick up only to throw wide and pull Morneau off the bag. Look at Plouffe's throw. He tilts his shoulders and delivers an almost submarine side-arm sling. http://i.imgur.com/qMylmpy.gif Here is another example of this in 2012. The Orioles have the bases loaded so the Twins bring the infield in. Plouffe makes a good play on a grounder to him but rushes the throw home, once again tilting and delivering a submarine side-armed throw that sails above Mauer's head. http://i.imgur.com/jlM1oYg.gif Now here is an example from 2014 of almost the exact same play. Notice how Plouffe sets himself and keeps his shoulders square on his throw to Suzuki at home: http://i.imgur.com/QJaFXXy.gif When asked heading into the 2013 season about his throwing woes, then manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters that Plouffe is “doing fine. He'll be fine. We all know about the throwing part and all those things. I know Plouffie worked his butt off out there trying to get better. That's half the battle. You've got a guy willing to go out and do extra work, tried a lot of different things.” The second factor for improvement is his position. There is an observable difference in his method that has led to fewer miscues and errors stemming from his throws. While he has made the same number of throwing errors this past season as he did in 2012, he put himself in position for more chances. Some are a result of still rushing throws or trying to make a play when he should have eaten the ball. In terms of playing the infield, where and how you field a ball will dictate how a throw will be made. Making a play deep down the line will necessitate a full overhand to get as much mustard on the ball as possible. Fielding a medium paced chopper towards the mound with a quick runner heading down the line may require a quick flip throw from whatever angle you can. A slow roller down the line might require a bare-hand and a submarine throw to first. What makes the difference is comfort and experience. In regards to the two plays at home, Plouffe had rarely been in that situation before and likely just rushed his throw. Meanwhile, in 2014, he had plenty of practice and was able to avoid making a hasty play. Another area that Plouffe has improved is his ability to get to more balls. No, he has not increased his speed but his instincts and his coaching have led him to putting himself in better positions to get to those balls. Take a look at how his plays made has expanded east-and-west from the two previous season: http://i.imgur.com/3LeKjjO.png There is a noticeable difference in the number of balls he has been able to get to to his left (towards short) than he had gotten to in the previous seasons. Some of that may be due to experience but positioning also appears to play a key role. "I think overall his confidence level in catching and throwing the ball is as high as it's ever been," Twins infielder coach Paul Molitor told reporters in September. "We still try to tweak different things about positioning and try to find ways to help him maybe get to a few more balls. I think everyone would like to do that if they could." It is no secret that Molitor played in significant role in the positioning of the Twins’ defense last year -- which likely was the reason behind Plouffe’s increased out-of-zone plays -- and now as the manager this year, there likely will be the same emphasis (if not more) on shifting and positioning to maximize coverage. Plouffe has shown improvement over his three seasons at third base for the Twins -- both statistically and through the eye-test. With the tantalizing bat of Miguel Sano putting the finishing touches on his major league preparation, Plouffe better continue to show that he can be a high caliber third baseman both offensively and defensively if he wants to avoid another position (or maybe even a uniform) change. Click here to view the article

Interesting note from an article on Arcia's return: Arcia was asked if the Minnesota Twins had contacted him when he was out of action. "They (Twins) have not called me, they always tell me to play far as it goes," Arcia said. "You're always waiting for a call, but so far has not happened." I find it interesting that the Twins did not reach out after Arcia became hurt. He's a starter. You would think you would want to know the situation.

Thanks Seth. She was terrific, simply a pro's pro. As a quick behind-the-scenes peek: AJ Pettersen -- who recorded stuff with us for a later podcast -- actually entertained Marney's kids while she chatted with us rubes.

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Add it to the law firm:

Eh...Parmelee likes the ball down. I feel like I have to address this every time I post two clips: they are representative of the sample as a whole. These two were chosen because of the same venue (providing the same camera angle) and situation (from the stretch). Both are excellent pitches. The first example is indicative of what clips show from his 2013 season -- erratic mechanics, pulling off line, dropping low with his body. The second clip shows a more controlled delivery as has been the case thorough the 2014 season and staying back/taller.

Suzuki's offensive demise seems vastly overblown. The changes he made to his swing increased his line drive rate significantly. Even as he hit .248/.290/.366 in his final 155 plate appearances after August 1st, he still had a high line drive rate. What is interesting is that his BB/K ratio went from 29/29 in April-July to 5/17 August-September. I would have to dig more to see if teams change their approach against him. I posted this theory on the Hughes thread: If he did breakdown the last two months of the year, this would definitely support the idea of working Josmil Pinto into the lineup more frequently and giving Suzuki more time off.

Where the hell did all the FIP talk come from?

That's definitely something I noticed as well reviewing video. He's lost weight/in better shape. A lot of his offseason time with the Yankees he was frequently rehabbing. Maybe he had more time this past winter to condition. Either way, it will be a good conversation for someone to have with him.

If you are trying to throw shade on Hughes' potential, by all means go ahead but if the only thing you are citing is his past track record then it is not a convincing argument for all the reasons listed in my article.

Yeah, that was in jest. The point of the entire post is that those things *won't* happen. It's not a huge difference when you consider what FIP is comprised of. First, he greatly reduced the number of walks (lowest in MLB). Second, he greatly reduced the number of home runs (HR/9 ranked 25th). Last, he had an improved strikeout rate (31st). All three of those things are the basis of FIP. FIP rankings don't tell the entire story of a pitcher but if he's doing those three things well, there is a good chance he'll have strong numbers in the future.

The outcome of Suzuki's mechanical change (http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/kurt-suzuki-makes-changes-at-the-plate-r2553) and Hughes' mechanical change are not comparable. Batters and pitchers. But to address Suzuki, he maintain that mechanics change all year. He didn't fall back into old habits. There really wasn't an explanation for the sudden drop in production in the second-half. If you look at his batted ball figures, he kept a line drive rate above 20% while having similar K%/BB% rates. I would have to dig in more to how pitchers approached him differently in the second-half but, at first blush, I wonder if he just wore down as the season progressed -- it was the 2nd most innings caught by a 30+ year old and Suzuki had caught 300 fewer innings. To your point about Hughes, yes, it is possible that he suddenly loses the feel for new mechanics. He has a new pitching coach who might tinker again. Teams might adjust to his cutter or attack his first pitch offering more. He might wind up with an injury. These things *could* happen. I don't think they will but they could.

All good points. To me, the idea of regression as it applies to Phil Hughes is because people look at his past track record and believe he will regress to that. Those who have paid closer attention to how Hughes has approached the 2014 season -- the repertoire change, the mechanics, etc -- should see that the peripheral stats that he put up -- the lowered walk rate, the improved K rate, the lowered fly ball rate, etc -- are a direct result of that. ERA and record will fluctuate but with the new approach the peripheral stats should remain consistent.

Phil Hughes’ first season with the Minnesota Twins was pretty damn good. So much so that the Twins tore up his old contract and presented him with a longer, more fruitful agreement; compensating Hughes closer to what his Fangraphs.com value suggests his performance was worth in 2014. Nobody forced the Twins into making that decision but they felt like they had something special.During the team’s conference call with the media, when asked about the additional years, general manager Terry Ryan said that there are always risks associated with pitchers. Signing a pitcher is like buying a used car -- eventually something is going to break and you just hope it is nothing major. Ryan, however, felt like the team was making a relatively safe investment in Hughes, citing his age (28) and his mechanics as reasons why the front office felt confident in extending the pitcher. When it was Hughes’ turn to speak, he began by offering up his thanks to his former pitching coach. “I would feel guilty if I didn’t thank Rick Anderson for all he did for me last year,” Hughes said. Hughes’ success in 2014 has been attributed to many different elements -- from his revamped repertoire to a more spacious stadium to remaining focused on the task at hand. Some of it may have been from Anderson, some may have been his own doing but all played a significant factor in his outcome last year: The remodeled arsenal, which featured the addition of a can’t-touch-me cutter, led to more strikeouts, the roomier configurations reduced the number of fly balls escaping the playing surface, and his regained confidence allowed him to attack the strike zone better than he ever did in New York. Even with the positive strides he made last season, it is hard for baseball analysts not to conjure up the r-word: regression. Career low in walks? Bound to increase next season. Lowest rate of fly balls leaving the yard? That will bounce back hard. When all the regressing is said and done, the Twins will rue the day they extended Phil Hughes. Hughes obviously disagreed. While there are elements of his game that might experience some regression, Hughes said on the conference call that he made enough tangible changes to his approach that 2014 was not an outlier but rather the new direction of his career. And the repertoire, reduced home runs and added confidence all stemmed from his improved mechanics. What is interesting about Ryan’s trust in Hughes’ mechanics is that it was his mechanics that were to blame for the the up-and-down seasons with the Yankees. As Andy McCullough wrote in The Star-Ledger in September 2013 “scouts observed the same flaws in his delivery this season. One talent evaluator referred to the motion as “herky-jerky.” Hughes lacks the sort of fluid arm swing that is easily repeatable.” One baseball executive called Hughes’ mechanics “high maintenance”. Meanwhile, in just one season Hughes is being well compensated for his mechanics. Upon arriving in Fort Myers, Hughes and Anderson consulted on his mechanics. There would be no major overhaul, just streamlining the process that focused on smoothing everything out. "I've just been trying to stay on my back side taller, because I have a tendency when I get over the rubber on my leg kick to just collapse and kind of drop and drive," Hughes told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger this past spring. "So I'm just trying to stay back. It puts me in a better position to throw the baseball in." The results of the tweaks is a more fluid, repeatable delivery. Reviewing clips of Hughes this year versus last, you can see he worked diligently to implement this into his delivery. Though the center field cameras are not the ideal shots (a better view would be from the side), this one example of Hughes’ motion in 2014 represents the overall changes he made in terms of being able to stay back and stay taller at his release point. In 2013 by dropping in his delivery, his mechanics had him often releasing the ball too far out front of his body. Watch his upper body/head in the two clips: http://i.imgur.com/CEt7cDC.gif http://i.imgur.com/RlbxTQU.gif The 2014 version is much more fluid, much more in control. Going forward, Hughes certainly may experience regression in 2015. When you set the standard for all-time highest strikeout-to-walk ratio the previous season, it will be difficult to top the following year. Yes, the home runs-to-fly ball percentage might grow and he may allow a few more runs to cross the plate. That being said, Hughes is simply not the same pitcher he was in New York. If he is able to maintain the consistent mechanics (while remaining healthy), there is no reason to anticipate any significant regression next season for Phil Hughes. Click here to view the article

I think UZR went through a same revamping process as BIS's Plus/Minus did around 2007. Per John Dewan of BIS:

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman are joined at Panino Brothers in Eden Prairie by Fox Sports North host/reporter Marney Gellner. They discuss the Ron Gardenhire era, how to deal with teams that are constantly losing, and Marney tells Twins Daily community members what to expect out of Winter Meltdown guests in Tim Laudner and Jacque Jones. Listen below.Other topics include North Dakota State football, the Minnesota Timberwolves and life inside the local media. Her kids made an appearance as well and we made some predictions for the National Championship Game. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #38: MARNEY GELLNER Click here to view the article

Another element that is not directly related to this -- but sort of considering Vargas had to apply for more time from the Twins -- is that at the beginning of the offseason Terry Ryan was opposed to having Vargas play a ton of winter ball:

Yes, question for Mr. Laudner? How badly did you want the next guy drilled after this? http://mlb.mlb.com/images/0/5/8/92771058/lawless_gif_twitter_heddgre3.gif

Again, I preface all of this by saying we don't know the whole story. These are just the details that are provided: Baerga did not start three players in the playoffs including his best player -- for some unknown reason. Could it have been because he pulled a Mr. Burns and had Homer pinch hit for Daryl Strawberry? Maybe. Could it have been that the three players did something on-or-off-the-field that caused their benching? Maybe. Could it have been because he just wanted to give the three a day off? Maybe. I tried to find any report on why those three were not played in the game and there did not seem to have any information available on that. To me, that's the smoking gun.