Parker Hageman

For three straight years now, the Minnesota Twins have been forced into tapping one of their position players to take the mound late in a blowout game. In 2011, it was Michael Cuddyer. Last season, the honors went to Drew Butera. This year's position player was veteran infielder Jamey Carroll. Had Aaron Hicks remained on the roster, he might have been the obvious position player to be called into mop-up duty considering he was a talented high school pitcher throwing in the mid-90s and multiple teams viewed him as a pitcher at the time of the draft. Nevertheless, Carroll retired his opponents with guile and not heat. <iframe class="vine-embed loaded " src="https://vine.co/v/hbdiDeMeX0J/embed/simple" width="480" height="480" frameborder="0"></iframe><script async="" src="//platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Carroll's nine-pitch eighth inning was not a thing of beauty, but it worked. He retired three consecutive Royals hitters and did not use anything resembling fastball, despite being his best fastball. MLB.com's PitchF/X system chatted all of his offerings are either a changeup or a knuckleball -- both reasonable assumptions for pitches thrown under 80 miles an hour. The [URL="https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/364586022610284544"]St Paul Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino tweeted[/URL] after the game that Carroll had not pitched at any level since his Babe Ruth League days as a fifteen-year-old. I’m guessing the velocity has not changed much since then. How does Carroll's outing compare to Cuddyer and Butera's? [attachment=6393:3081.attach] You have to wonder if Carroll’s grotesque fingers gave him an unfair advantage to put addition movement on each pitch that a normal, healthy-handed pitcher would not. Sort of like Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown. [attachment=6394:3082.attach] View full article

[attachment=6103:2629.attach]With the exception of one seasons in the early 1980s, Dick Bremer’s rich, jovial voice has been the definite sound of summer for Minnesota Twins fans in the Upper Midwest since 1983. His professionalism, knowledge and ability to entertain a wide audience for many years are the reason the [URL="https://twitter.com/BertBlyleven28/status/344584488694722561"]Minnesota Broadcasters Hall of Fame[/URL] recently selected him for induction. This honor, without question, was well deserved. It is interesting to think how people watch and understand the game of baseball has changed radically from his first days on the job. Back then the bulk of statistical analysis was being done covertly using computers the size and weight of a Kenmore dishwasher (and presumably in mom’s basement). In the same year Bremer began his Twins broadcasts, Bill James released the 1983 Baseball Abstract. In it he summarized the understanding of the game by writing that the walk was greatly undervalued as an offensive weapon and that it was viewed as a “random result of being at bat when a pitcher is stricken with control trouble” rather than a skill. In that same book, James wondered why baseball fans at that time focused too much on the results. Like wins and losses for pitchers, the RBI instead of the men who got on base to create the opportunity, and so on. “If the food is good,” wrote James, “you tip the waitress. Sabermetricians are an odd lot. We always want to know what the recipe was.” That’s the best definition I have ever heard for statistical analysis. Statistical analysis of baseball is wanting to know the recipe. Since then the publication of [I]Moneyball [/I]and the rise of websites like Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have given a broader appeal and understanding to baseball fans regarding the concepts that influence the game, like the importance of walks and beyond. The knowledge of what goes in the recipe has grown tenfold as well as the access to those ingredients too. On the mainstream side, thirty years have passed and baseball’s broadcasters are still wrestling with how – of even[I] if[/I] – they should communicate these findings to their audience. While there are some markets who have included some of the principles in their broadcasts, Minnesota has not been one of them. The Twins’ radio broadcaster [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/1797-twins-broadcaster-cory-provus-discusses-advanced-stats-booth.html"]Cory Provus suggested that his medium[/URL] is not designed to be able to properly inform without the visuals to drive it home. How about television? Dick Bremer shares his thoughts: [B]How do you see advanced stats as it relates to broadcast today? [/B] [I]“Stats have mushroomed into a completely different stratosphere. They call it “broadcasting” because you have to include as many people as you can. I think the new math in baseball tends to exclude a lot of people because a lot of people don’t comprehend it…yet. As we move forward, it will become more and more a part of the lexicon of baseball and it will be incorporated more into the broadcast.”[/I] [B]Should broadcasters discuss some of the statistical analysis and advanced metrics most teams use in some capacity for roster-building? [/B] [I]“I think it is getting to that point, I don’t know if it is quite there yet because I don’t know if our average viewer knows what WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is. When it gets to that point, then I think that our broadcast and other broadcasts will find it more mainstream subject matter to talk about. I just don’t think it is there yet. If we came on with Batting Average On Balls In Play, for instance, I think our audience – a significant portion of it – still would be, well, what’s that mean as opposed to batting average? Batting average is easy to explain though it is not the ideal stat to determine a hitter’s value in a lineup, but that’s something that everyone can comprehend. We still are in the business of trying to include people and not exclude them."[/I] [B]How have the numbers, stats and analysis changed in over your career in the broadcast booth? [/B] [I] “When I started this each team produced one sheet, front and back, for their press box. Now it’s five and you get the stat pack which is twenty-some pages and that doesn’t even begin to tell you the numbers you are speaking of, you know, what a player’s Wins Above Replacement is. That doesn’t even touch that and that is still so much more numerical information then we can give in a broadcast.”[/I] [B]Television is a medium that gives the opportunity to put visuals of stats on the screen. [/B] [I] “When we started giving more and more on the screen, the internal debate among play-by-play guys was now do we still need to give the count? Or do we mention that there are two outs? Or can people see the two dots on the screen? I think the consensus among most play-by-play guys is that we still need to do it because people are doing other things and they’re not locked in on the screen studying everything like some people are but most people are not so you still have to do the basics. Now, if information is given on the screen, the question is maybe the announcer should give other information then what we have to watch for is it becoming a mass of numbers. Even before sabermetricians became more common in baseball that was our great concern: What are we doing on television? We can do some things on TV that they cannot do radio. But are we giving people too many numbers? If you put up a screen full of numbers then you need to leave it on the screen so people can go ‘Ok, alright, ok I get it, this is what they are trying to say’ well then you are not watching the game.”[/I] [B]Len Kasper and the Chicago Cubs WGN broadcasts do a regular Stats Sunday feature to discuss the concepts to the fans. Could you see FSN doing something similar? [/B] [I]“Absolutely, to educate people, which is what we try to do and is one of our functions - to educate people about how the game is played and how decisions are made by people in the front office – absolutely I can see that happening. It hasn’t happened yet and maybe it is something that, to Len’s point, we should be adapting to or including in our broadcast. Anything that adds to or enhances the enjoyment of the game, that’s our job.”[/I] [B]You’ve been broadcasting with the Twins since before the Moneyball area. Have you noticed many changes in the game? [/B] [I]“Since then, you’ve seen it everywhere; you’ve seen it in the Twins organization. People are far more aggressive in analyzing the game mathematically. I think most baseball executives still need the new math to pass the eye test – what they see on the field. Are there numbers that support this? One thing that I saw years ago was that Wins Above Replacement was suggesting that Alexi Casilla was a really good middle infielder. I don’t know if anyone who saw him play the game believed that but yet you can find numbers out there that supported that. There’s been a change in that direction, there’s no question, and where it will lead I don’t know, but you still need scouts’ eyes and general managers’ eyes to see what the numbers might support." [/I] [B]How about having an analyst dedicated to talking about the statistical side of the game in the broadcast? [/B] [I]“If baseball’s new math becomes more mainstream, yeah, and it might very well be heading in that direction. What we have to do as broadcasters though is not talk over the heads of too many people and to the extent that most of our audience does not want to or can’t comprehend baseball’s new math, how much time would we spend trying to educate them over the course of an evening’s broadcast? What is Wins Above Replacement? I hate to keep using that one but that’s actually one of the more elementary ones in terms of explaining what it means. We’re still wondering once or twice a year if we should explain the Infield Fly Rule.”[/I] View full article

[attachment=5824:2276.attach]Catcher framing is extremely popular in baseball research circles right now. Go over to Fangraphs.com or BaseballProspectus.com and you will find several studies and articles on the subject. It’s Hansel hot right now. While we can determine which catchers are better at getting more out-of-zone pitches called strikes than others, we still do not have a full grasp on what it means to a team’s bottom line. In some ways, it feels like a butterfly effect. If a catcher is unable to get a borderline pitch for a punchout strike, it could mean an additional pitch for the pitcher, which could mean a base hit, which means another at bat, which means an additional four or five pitches, which runs up the pitch count and could mean going to the bullpen in the fifth rather than the sixth or seventh. One of the [URL="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20211"]more recent studies on Baseball Prospectus[/URL] found that Joe Mauer has a relative inability to coax the low strike. As Ben Lindbergh’s data shows, Mauer’s 19.5% strike rate low in the zone is well-below the average for catchers –in fact, 41.3% below average. By comparison, Milwaukee’s Jonathon Lucroy has excelled at getting this pitche called. His strike rate in the low portion is 77.1% (or 66.1% above average). On the other hand, because of his tall stature, Mauer has been much better at getting high strikes versus the smaller framed Lucroy. Much, MUCH better. According to Lindbergh’s figures, Mauer is 86.3% better than the average at coercing the high strike. Lindbergh provides a .gif that visually shows the difference between the two catchers’ called strike zones, note the bottom dark dots on Mauer’s chart that represent called balls: [CENTER] [attachment=5825:2277.attach] [/CENTER] As a real-life example, in Tuesday night’s game against the Angels, Anthony Swarzak was cruising through his first inning of work, retiring Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta on seven pitches. He was in the middle of doing the same to Angels’ third baseman, Luis Jimenez, up 0-2, and twirled off this exquisite curveball: <IFRAME class="vine-embed loaded " height=480 src="https://vine.co/v/bF9xhimDZwj/embed/simple" frameBorder=0 width=480></IFRAME> <SCRIPT charset=utf-8 src="//platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js" async=""></SCRIPT> Everybody in the ballpark had thought Jimenez would be rung up. Swarzak, Mauer, the fan sitting behind the foul pole in right field, Jimenez, heck, even Jimenez’s mom probably thought he needed to grab some pine. Home plate umpire Paul Nauert, the most important person in that decision-making process, did not believe it was a strike. Here’s the location via MLB’s Gameday: [CENTER][attachment=5826:2278.attach][/CENTER] That pitch -- pitch number 4 -- certainly falls within that area where Mauer has not had those pitches called strikes. In the grand scheme of things, this was a non-event. Swarzak would retire him on the next pitch – a curve in the dirt – and no damage would be done beyond the extra pitch. However, as I revisited the location of the pitch, I couldn’t help but think of Lindbergh’s study and how we have another incident to add to the collection of Mauer not getting the low strike call. Admittedly, this may have had nothing to do with Mauer’s framing or stature. After all, Nauert was having somewhat of a rough game – as evidenced by Chris Parmelee’s called third strike in the bottom of that inning: <IFRAME class="vine-embed loaded " height=480 src="https://vine.co/v/bF90VTmlqTL/embed/simple" frameBorder=0 width=480></IFRAME> <SCRIPT charset=utf-8 src="//platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js" async=""></SCRIPT> Here’s a thought: How does Mauer’s inability to get low strikes affect what is predominately a sinker ball rotation? In years past, Mauer’s height and tendency to get high strikes called would have played well for pitchers like Scott Baker who work mainly up in the zone with their fastballs. But with Vance Worley and Mike Pelfrey toeing the rubber, their arsenal is more reliant on getting low borderline pitches called strikes in order to get strike three. So far, both pitchers are well-below their career strikeout norms. Obviously, plenty of blame needs to be assigned to the pitcher, but how much influence does Mauer’s handling have? View full article

[attachment=5335:1571.attach][FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. [/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. [/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line.[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching.[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive.[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they [URL="http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-league-stay-dodger-20121031,0,1375200.story"]extended right-handed reliever Brandon League[/URL] with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game.[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told [URL="http://www.foxsportsohio.com/10/24/12/A-conversation-with-the-Indians-Mark-Sha/landing_indians1.html?blockID=809163&feedID=3652"]Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon[/URL] that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year.[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Per the interview:[/SIZE][/FONT] [QUOTE][FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3][COLOR=#252525][B]Q: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=#252525]How is that figure determined?[/COLOR] [COLOR=#252525][B]A: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=#252525]Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year.They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you're often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he's usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That's why free agency is never the best way to build. It's a good way to supplement but not build.[/COLOR] [COLOR=#252525][B]Q: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=#252525]So $8 million for one win?[/COLOR] [COLOR=#252525][B]A: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=#252525]It's $9 (million) now. It was $8 (million) two yeas ago. I think at the end of this year they figured out it was nine. And when those wins come in the win curve are important. What does that win mean if it's the difference between 80 and 81? Very little. But if that win's the difference between 89 and 90, that could be a meaningful win.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/QUOTE] [SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face.[/FONT][/SIZE] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. [/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. [/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. [/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. [/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry. [/SIZE][/FONT] View full article

What was interesting about Justin Morneau’s second home run of the game yesterday (and the walk-off winner which John Bonnes detailed [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1022-Justin-Morneau-Reminds-Twins-Fans-That-He-s-Still-Here"]here[/URL]) is that it happened to be just his third home run he has hit which was thrown over 90 miles per hour this year. On his second homer of the year back on April 18, he turned on a 91.7 mile an hour Hiroki Kuroda fastball. On July 6, he redirected a 96-mile an hour Tanner Scheppers fastball into the Rangers Ballpark stands. Yesterday’s walk off that came on Vinnie Pestano’s 91 mile an hour fastball marked just the third time this year that he’s managed to put a 90+ fastball into the seats. In 2009, when Morneau was a sure-fire MVP candidate before missing the last month of the year, 14 of his 30 home runs came on fastballs over 90 miles an hour. In 2008, eight of his 23 came on fastballs over 90 miles an hour. Now, just three of his 19 home runs have touched that velocity. The tendency may be to associate this with his concussion, however, during the 2010 season Morneau hit just two of his 18 home runs on 90+ fastballs as well. Perhaps it is a byproduct of aging, or the injured wrist, shoulder or other ailment. Consider his hitting zone against the fastball in the first half compared to the second half of the year: [attachment=5203:1382.attach] With the green-to-red colors representing the greater production, Morneau’s second-half performance (depicted on the right) shows that he has much better zone coverage against fastballs. Take note of the dramatic difference between his first-half production (left) when being thrown inside in comparison to the second-half (right), in which he was handling the inside fastball far better. Independent of what leaves the park, Morneau’s performance against fastballs overall has improved as the season has gone on. View full article

[attachment=5193:1374.attach]When the Twins front office begins to renovate this mess of a house in the winter, at the top of the list the highest priority has to be fixing the starting rotation. It is the home’s crumbling foundation and that needs the most attention. Afterwards, item number two could be repairing the all-important middle infield position. Offensively, over the past two seasons the Twins shortstops have hit a combined .241/.303/.326. It was this kind of hitting that had forced the 2009 team into acquiring Orlando Cabrera and the 2010 team to land JJ Hardy. In terms of OPS, just three other American League teams have extracted less production out of the position since the end of the 2010 season: the Mariners, Rays and Athletics. The difference is, while those teams’ shortstops struggled at the dish, they were all good with the glove providing them with some value. What’s more is that two of those three teams either changed direction or will likely change in the near future. In the past two seasons, outside of a geriatric doctor in Sarasota performing physicals, nobody in this country picked up more balls than Seattle’s Brendan Ryan, so it is easy to exchange offense for his defense. Meanwhile, Elliot Johnson in Tampa has been solid, doing more on defense in 2010 over 2011, but he will likely give way to one of the two defensive stalwarts in Tim Beckham or Hak-Ju Lee in the coming future. Over in Oakland, Chad Pennington has been average in the field however his lack of offense encouraged the A’s to grab the equally struggling Stephen Drew, who has yet to rebound after leaving the hitting-haven of Arizona’s Chase Field. In theory, the Twins thought they were getting a strong defensive player in Tsuyoshi Nishioka but realized that the bar for a Gold Glove in Japan was apparently set ridiculously low. For their part, recognizing the lack of depth at the upper levels, the Twins have nabbed a few additional shortstops including Pedro Florimon and Eduardo Escobar to go with the in-house Brian Dozier. Florimon, who has been up with the team for all of 19 games, comes equipped with plenty of range but an error-prone resume. We’ve seen some slick fielding plays thanks to his speed. Consider with a grain of salt based on the sample size yet according to Baseball Info Solution’s data in 158.1 innings he has made 11 out-of-zone plays at short. Compare that to Jamey Carroll - who had 150 more innings than him at short – and made just 18 out-of-zone plays. However, he’s been unable to make the plays within the standard zone. He’s had 42 balls hit into his zone and made just 27 plays (.643 revised zone rating). While Carroll could not touch Florimon’s speed, Carroll compensated by making the vast majority of plays that were hit near him (85 of 105 for a .810 revised zone rating). And although he has turned a corner and has made just 16 errors so far this year, the fewest E’s the 25-year-old shortstop has commitment was 21 in the low-A Sally League. If he does not find a way to harness all of his physical talent and smooth out his glove work, his minor league track record suggests will not contribute much offensively judging by his .249/.321/.354 batting line in just under 3,000 plate appearances. Escobar has proven to be a much more sure-handed individual over his development but does not necessarily project as a starting shortstop – more likely a second baseman or utility infielder. Even though the White Sox used him at third base, there is nothing in his minor league batting line of .267/.312/.348 that would be indicative of someone capable of hitting like a third baseman. Before they decided against recalling him in September, the accept belief was that Brian Dozier would be the frontrunner for the position in 2013 among all the internal options. For most of the year Dozier played decisively average defense. Compared to the rest of the league’s starting shortstops according to BIS, he made a less than average amount of plays in a shortstop’s zone. Some of that was blamed on lack of awareness of his competition. Upon his demotion, Ron Gardenhire [URL="http://m.startribune.com/sports/?id=158513705&c=y"]questioned some of his positioning[/URL] that allowed speedier guys like Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis and Kansas City’s Jarrod Dyson to reach on grounders. Improving his defense would require preparation and ability to position in the field to handle those types of situations. Then again, there are plenty of baseball minds who have believed Dozier to be more of a second baseman than a shortstop. And, offensively, he degraded into a Danny Valencia-like mess at the plate, chasing sliders out of the zone and putting a very high amount of those kinds of pitches in play (74% out of zone contact). To be sure, the gaggle of shortstops has improved the defense a smidge over the 2011 group. Last year the team had a .268 batting average on ground balls in play, well above the league average of .240. This year, that number has dropped to .258. Still on the high-side but an increase of grounders converted to outs, nonetheless. Based on what we know today, it would seem that none of these three players are close to becoming fixtures in the middle infield. They certainly all have skills and plenty of upside, although it is hard to envision a team interested in competing for a division title next year to roll forward with any of these three at the vital position. The point is, when the Twins brass sits down when the season ends on October 3, they should think critically about their plans for shortstop next year. Any one of these players may be able to get a team through a season and it is possible that one of these existing candidates figures things out either defensively or offensively. On the other hand, based on their prior experience, it is more likely that they do not and will leave the organization, once again, hunting for an answer at shortstop. View full article

Some of you may be aware that in addition to being a member of TwinsCentric, I also run an apparel company called [URL="http://diamondcentric.myshopify.com/"]DiamondCentric[/URL] where we provide sports-themed t-shirts. This venture has mostly focused around the Twins but has since branched into other local sports teams. If you are a follower of ours on [URL="http://www.facebook.com/DiamondCentric"]Facebook[/URL], you know that we often do Caption Contests, giving the winner who amuses us the most a free tee. I thought we'd bring the practice over to the Twins Daily community and rewards those of you who have visited our new site. So, for a free [URL="http://diamondcentric.myshopify.com/products/duenslinger"]Duenslinger t-shirt[/URL], give us your best caption for this picture:[attachment=4288:138.attach]**Winner will be chosen tomorrow (2/24 at 5 PM Twin Cities time)** View full article

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The [URL="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/twins-add-joel-zumaya-to-bullpen-mix.html"]Twins signed Zumaya[/URL] to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at [URL="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/"]Cot’s Contracts[/URL] and the Star Tribune’s[URL="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/135579343.html"] Joe Christensen’s[/URL] prior assumptions: [attachment=4224:61.attach] As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the [URL="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/130608298.html?page=2&c=y"]ownership’s desire to lower than figure[/URL], the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a [URL="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Terry_Ryan_estimates_100_million_payroll_Krivsky_coming_aboard110711"]few more details regarding the payroll number[/URL]: [QUOTE] “I think it's going to somewhere around 100 (million)." Ryan added, "There's nobody up here that wants to hide anything. If it's 95, if it's 100, if it's 90, we're going to make due (sp) with what Jim (Pohlad) and the family and (team president) Dave (St. Peter) give us.”[/QUOTE] At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of [URL="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/coffey-is-for-setting-up-closers.html"]intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms[/URL]. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few schillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff. View full article

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The [URL="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/twins-add-joel-zumaya-to-bullpen-mix.html"]Twins signed Zumaya[/URL] to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at [URL="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/"]Cot’s Contracts[/URL] and the Star Tribune’s[URL="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/135579343.html"] Joe Christensen’s[/URL] prior assumptions: [attachment=4222:61.attach] As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the [URL="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/130608298.html?page=2&c=y"]ownership’s desire to lower than figure[/URL], the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a [URL="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Terry_Ryan_estimates_100_million_payroll_Krivsky_coming_aboard110711"]few more details regarding the payroll number[/URL]: [QUOTE] “I think it's going to somewhere around 100 (million)." Ryan added, "There's nobody up here that wants to hide anything. If it's 95, if it's 100, if it's 90, we're going to make due (sp) with what Jim (Pohlad) and the family and (team president) Dave (St. Peter) give us.”[/QUOTE] At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of [URL="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/coffey-is-for-setting-up-closers.html"]intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms[/URL]. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few schillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff. View full article