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  1. Yup, he throws his changeup to both sides regularly. Over the past two years in the 'pen the reverse split has been even more pronounced: .237/.291/.314 vs LHB and .267/.342/.420 vs RHB.
  2. Shortly before Christmas break, the Minnesota Twins signed free agent pitcher Tim Stauffer to one-year, $2.2 million. If you happened to check Fangraphs.com on the 32-year-old righthander, gazing upon his average velocity may have been as exciting as unwrapping another pair of socks. Low 90s? Again? While the trend for pitching staffs has been to stockpile power arms, Stauffer’s flexibility as a starter and a reliever provides the team with various options. Beyond the low velocity, over his career Stauffer has combated an endless war against injuries that would have made Orwell proud. What exactly do the Twins see in him? **** When Stauffer was drafted out of the University of Richmond in 2003, Baseball America quoted one scout as saying Stauffer is “Brad Radke with a better fastball and breaking ball.” In his senior year Stauffer had thrown 146 innings while walking just 19 batters -- a Radke-ian feat by any measure. Still, insiders were concerned over the workload Stauffer shouldered in his final two years in college: He had amassed 250 innings with 28 complete games to boot. The Padres did not show much concern over the mileage nor the fact that he came from the University of Richmond -- a school that touts Sean Casey and Brian Jordan as themajor league contributors they had produced. The Padres saw a pitcher who not only dominated hitters in a less competitive conference but had also witnessed him doing the same to the nation’s best collegiate hitters in the Cape Cod League as well. Convinced, San Diego used their fourth overall pick in 2003 on Stauffer. According to Baseball America, the Padres noted that Stauffer’s superior character was one of the reasons he was selected at that point. That character was tested right away after being selected. In his last collegiate start against UC Riverside, Stauffer said he finished the game with some discomfort in his throwing shoulder. A “little more stiffness or soreness than usual” as he put it. An MRI revealed his shoulder joint was weakened from taxing the labrum and rotator cuff. Stauffer could have accepted the $2.6 million bonus from the team and not said anything but instead, he and his agent came clean. Rather than being a multi-millionaire, Stauffer agreed to $750,000. **** Baseball analysts like to try to find root causes of arms issues (such as shoulder blowouts or UCL tears) and assign various explanations (such as pitch counts, innings totals or mechanics). While all, some or none may be responsible, there may simply be genetics as an influential factor. Prior to being draft, Stauffer’s father Rick spoke to The Daily Gazette in New York about his son’s success and noted that he too played in college for a while and had professional teams inquiring about him as well. The elder Stauffer, however, ran headlong into shoulder problems in college that derailed his career. “I threw a little like Timmy does…I could throw in the low-90-mph range,” Rick Stauffer told the newspaper. “But, I decided to go to college at St. Joseph’s and hurt my shoulder during my freshman year. Rotator cuff injuries weren’t diagnosed back then. They sent me to Temple University Hospital in Philadelphia, where they worked with me for more than a year.” Like for his father, the weak shoulder would eventually falter for Tim. Attempting to win a spot in the Padres’ 2008 rotation during spring training, Stauffer said something did not feel right. He had pitched through pain and soreness before but this felt different. Tests revealed a partial labrum tear -- his weakened shoulder joint. “It happened over time," Stauffer told the Saratogan as he attempted to rehab his arm at his high school gymnasium in 2009. "It's not something that happened with one pitch or one game. Rehab wasn't doing it, so I decided to have it fixed and go from there." The shoulder surgery and recovery erased the 2008 season for him. 2009 was limited. In 2010, the injury bug bit again in the form of appendicitis that Stauffer diagnosed himself using an WebMD app on his phone in the middle of the night. That cost him 47 games. Most recently, in 2012 while recovering from more shoulder soreness Stauffer’s elbow began barking as well. More surgery. More rehab. More people calling him a bust. **** Stauffer had missed two of the past five seasons for the Padres. He was now on the other side of 30 and had a future shrouded in doubt. In October 2012 San Diego designated him for assignment. He cleared waivers when no other team was willing to claim him and elected free agency. Stauffer would remain a free agent until late January 2013 when the Padres -- perhaps out of respect for his character-- signed him to a minor league deal and offered him a major league tryout. Rather than return as a starter, Stauffer was converted to a reliever. After a run in Triple-A, Stauffer was recalled in May 2013 and completed his first season in the Padres’ bullpen. The results were solid. As a long reliever Stauffer worked in 43 outings but threw 69.2 innings while striking out 64 and walking just 20, leading to a healthy 3.55 ERA. Still arbitration-eligible because of his lack of major league service time, the Padres brought him back again in 2014. Again he worked lower leverage situations in the sixth and seventh innings and provided multi-inning support in blowouts. Like the Twins’ Anthony Swarzak, Stauffer was asked to make a few spot starts in the season as well (to mixed results). In all, Stauffer pitched 64.2 innings over 44 games, including three starts. Like in the season before, his numbers were respectable. He struck out 67, walked 23 and carried a 3.50 ERA. Not great, but respectable. Other than finally having a healthy arm, the biggest difference in his performance between the rotation and the bullpen was his use of the changeup. Download attachment: Stauffer_ChangeupUsage.png Stauffer said he was working on his changeup in 2011 but it did not seem to take hold until he reached the bullpen full time. Maybe it was feel or confidence but Stauffer threw his changeup more often and much more frequently in two-strike counts as his knuckle-curve gave way to a circle change. Download attachment: USATSI_7981390.jpg Over the past two seasons, among relievers who have thrown the pitch at least 150 times, Stauffer’s 22.4% swinging strike rate ranks ahead of Seattle’s Fernando Rodney (22.0%) and the Twins’ Jared Burton (20.3%), two of the more devastating changeups in the game, and 14th overall. http://i.imgur.com/2clvtXq.gif It is because of this pitch that he is such a Jared Burton-like clone. They both had relied on changeups -- Burton called his a splangeup as it was a split between his middle and ring finger instead of a circle change like Stauffer’s (as seen above). What makes it effective is the arm action and movement coupled with the deviation in velocity from his fastball. Although his fastball barely reaches 90, his change sits at 80. Having an above average secondary or out-pitch is good for a reliever when asking him to retire just three hitters a night. However, Stauffer’s primary pitch -- his fastball -- lacks zip and is often bombarded. His slider is above average but the fastball can be a liability at times. **** What the 2015 season holds for Stauffer is uncertain. Born and bred as a starting pitcher through his career, the Twins have said they will give Stauffer an opportunity to make the rotation. “He’s had some success as a starter, so we’ve told him we will give him that opportunity and see where it lands,” General Manager Terry Ryan told the Star Tribune after Stauffer’s signing was announced. Unless injuries appear or several of the younger arms appear ineffective in the spring, Stauffer’s immediate future with the Twins is likely as a reliever. Without Burton or Swarzak, the Twins need someone who can handle both short and long outings. Moreover, Stauffer’s experience as a starter provides the Twins with some additional insurance throughout the season rather than having to summon pitchers like Yohan Pino or Kris Johnson to fill starts. Of course, when talking about potential injury Stauffer is as likely as any to have arm issues. Likewise, his ability to retire American League hitters remains in question. That said, Stauffer appears to be someone with the drive and history to provide the Twins with multiple options. Click here to view the article
  3. **** When Stauffer was drafted out of the University of Richmond in 2003, Baseball America quoted one scout as saying Stauffer is “Brad Radke with a better fastball and breaking ball.” In his senior year Stauffer had thrown 146 innings while walking just 19 batters -- a Radke-ian feat by any measure. Still, insiders were concerned over the workload Stauffer shouldered in his final two years in college: He had amassed 250 innings with 28 complete games to boot. The Padres did not show much concern over the mileage nor the fact that he came from the University of Richmond -- a school that touts Sean Casey and Brian Jordan as themajor league contributors they had produced. The Padres saw a pitcher who not only dominated hitters in a less competitive conference but had also witnessed him doing the same to the nation’s best collegiate hitters in the Cape Cod League as well. Convinced, San Diego used their fourth overall pick in 2003 on Stauffer. According to Baseball America, the Padres noted that Stauffer’s superior character was one of the reasons he was selected at that point. That character was tested right away after being selected. In his last collegiate start against UC Riverside, Stauffer said he finished the game with some discomfort in his throwing shoulder. A “little more stiffness or soreness than usual” as he put it. An MRI revealed his shoulder joint was weakened from taxing the labrum and rotator cuff. Stauffer could have accepted the $2.6 million bonus from the team and not said anything but instead, he and his agent came clean. Rather than being a multi-millionaire, Stauffer agreed to $750,000. **** Baseball analysts like to try to find root causes of arms issues (such as shoulder blowouts or UCL tears) and assign various explanations (such as pitch counts, innings totals or mechanics). While all, some or none may be responsible, there may simply be genetics as an influential factor. Prior to being draft, Stauffer’s father Rick spoke to The Daily Gazette in New York about his son’s success and noted that he too played in college for a while and had professional teams inquiring about him as well. The elder Stauffer, however, ran headlong into shoulder problems in college that derailed his career. “I threw a little like Timmy does…I could throw in the low-90-mph range,” Rick Stauffer told the newspaper. “But, I decided to go to college at St. Joseph’s and hurt my shoulder during my freshman year. Rotator cuff injuries weren’t diagnosed back then. They sent me to Temple University Hospital in Philadelphia, where they worked with me for more than a year.” Like for his father, the weak shoulder would eventually falter for Tim. Attempting to win a spot in the Padres’ 2008 rotation during spring training, Stauffer said something did not feel right. He had pitched through pain and soreness before but this felt different. Tests revealed a partial labrum tear -- his weakened shoulder joint. “It happened over time," Stauffer told the Saratogan as he attempted to rehab his arm at his high school gymnasium in 2009. "It's not something that happened with one pitch or one game. Rehab wasn't doing it, so I decided to have it fixed and go from there." The shoulder surgery and recovery erased the 2008 season for him. 2009 was limited. In 2010, the injury bug bit again in the form of appendicitis that Stauffer diagnosed himself using an WebMD app on his phone in the middle of the night. That cost him 47 games. Most recently, in 2012 while recovering from more shoulder soreness Stauffer’s elbow began barking as well. More surgery. More rehab. More people calling him a bust. **** Stauffer had missed two of the past five seasons for the Padres. He was now on the other side of 30 and had a future shrouded in doubt. In October 2012 San Diego designated him for assignment. He cleared waivers when no other team was willing to claim him and elected free agency. Stauffer would remain a free agent until late January 2013 when the Padres -- perhaps out of respect for his character-- signed him to a minor league deal and offered him a major league tryout. Rather than return as a starter, Stauffer was converted to a reliever. After a run in Triple-A, Stauffer was recalled in May 2013 and completed his first season in the Padres’ bullpen. The results were solid. As a long reliever Stauffer worked in 43 outings but threw 69.2 innings while striking out 64 and walking just 20, leading to a healthy 3.55 ERA. Still arbitration-eligible because of his lack of major league service time, the Padres brought him back again in 2014. Again he worked lower leverage situations in the sixth and seventh innings and provided multi-inning support in blowouts. Like the Twins’ Anthony Swarzak, Stauffer was asked to make a few spot starts in the season as well (to mixed results). In all, Stauffer pitched 64.2 innings over 44 games, including three starts. Like in the season before, his numbers were respectable. He struck out 67, walked 23 and carried a 3.50 ERA. Not great, but respectable. Other than finally having a healthy arm, the biggest difference in his performance between the rotation and the bullpen was his use of the changeup. Stauffer said he was working on his changeup in 2011 but it did not seem to take hold until he reached the bullpen full time. Maybe it was feel or confidence but Stauffer threw his changeup more often and much more frequently in two-strike counts as his knuckle-curve gave way to a circle change. Over the past two seasons, among relievers who have thrown the pitch at least 150 times, Stauffer’s 22.4% swinging strike rate ranks ahead of Seattle’s Fernando Rodney (22.0%) and the Twins’ Jared Burton (20.3%), two of the more devastating changeups in the game, and 14th overall. http://i.imgur.com/2clvtXq.gif It is because of this pitch that he is such a Jared Burton-like clone. They both had relied on changeups -- Burton called his a splangeup as it was a split between his middle and ring finger instead of a circle change like Stauffer’s (as seen above). What makes it effective is the arm action and movement coupled with the deviation in velocity from his fastball. Although his fastball barely reaches 90, his change sits at 80. Having an above average secondary or out-pitch is good for a reliever when asking him to retire just three hitters a night. However, Stauffer’s primary pitch -- his fastball -- lacks zip and is often bombarded. His slider is above average but the fastball can be a liability at times. **** What the 2015 season holds for Stauffer is uncertain. Born and bred as a starting pitcher through his career, the Twins have said they will give Stauffer an opportunity to make the rotation. “He’s had some success as a starter, so we’ve told him we will give him that opportunity and see where it lands,” General Manager Terry Ryan told the Star Tribune after Stauffer’s signing was announced. Unless injuries appear or several of the younger arms appear ineffective in the spring, Stauffer’s immediate future with the Twins is likely as a reliever. Without Burton or Swarzak, the Twins need someone who can handle both short and long outings. Moreover, Stauffer’s experience as a starter provides the Twins with some additional insurance throughout the season rather than having to summon pitchers like Yohan Pino or Kris Johnson to fill starts. Of course, when talking about potential injury Stauffer is as likely as any to have arm issues. Likewise, his ability to retire American League hitters remains in question. That said, Stauffer appears to be someone with the drive and history to provide the Twins with multiple options.
  4. On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman kicked off their first ever holiday episode by discussing the Twins center field situation, Jose Berrios playing in the winter league, and then they had the Airing of the Grievances. Click to listen below.Topics also include worst MLB uniforms ever. Was this one your favorite? Download attachment: B5eCMInCAAAhDlt.jpg Or this? Download attachment: B5LJMP2CAAAD5nE.jpg Then you probably should listen and find out what was the worst uniform ever. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #35: THE FESTIVUS BASEBALL EPISODE Click here to view the article
  5. Topics also include worst MLB uniforms ever. Was this one your favorite? Or this? Then you probably should listen and find out what was the worst uniform ever. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #35: THE FESTIVUS BASEBALL EPISODE
  6. I think he is still has some things to work on but I tend to agree with Ryan's assessment of Hicks' defense in the Offseason Handbook "[H]is defense and his throwing and his range and his jumps and his angles are pretty good. In fact, a lot of people will tell you it is better than pretty good." I'm not confident the 480 innings in center this year tells us much in terms of UZR performance. Inside Edge's fielding stats are a little more favorable towards him. I would consider him a "good" defender. The problem is, the Twins need a "great" defender in the outfield to work between Arcia and Hunter.
  7. One of the more critical openings the Minnesota Twins will have this year is in center field. If all goes well, that job will be Aaron Hicks’ to borrow. What are the odds that he meets expectations in 2015?The offseason did not start off well for Hicks: In November he was released from his Venezuelan winter ball team after hitting just .220/.381/.280 in 16 games. The explanation from his team was that he was released because of the poor production but there were rumblings from local media that the Venezuelan team was also upset with his attitude. Whatever the case might be between him and Bravos de Margarita, earlier in the offseason general manager Terry Ryan was emphatic that the Twins organization had no concerns over Hicks’ drive and makeup. Meanwhile, during his introductory conference call with season ticket holders manager Paul Molitor reiterated his hopes that Hicks will be able to hold the center field job. That, of course, will depend on how much he can do with the stick. Since coming up to the Twins in 2013, Hicks has posted an OPS+ of 69 (heh) which is 79 out of 89 hitters who have played at least 25 games in center. Ahead of him? Sam Fuld (76), Jordan Schafer (82), Alex Presley (83) and Danny Santana (130). With the exception of Santana those other three players were readily available, making Hicks the epitome of a player below replacement-level. It is a shame considering Hicks has the requisite tools necessary to be a solid contributor. All that is, except hitting. If the baseball saying goes " Hit and we’ll find a position for you" is true, the opposite is certainly valid for those who cannot hit. There does not seem to be any reason to blame bad luck for the low offensive numbers, either. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, since 2013 Hicks’ hard-hit average has been at .115 -- well below the average of .155, and qualifies as 31 of 36 center fielders with 400 plate appearances. Because of this, it is easy to see why he wound up with the second lowest batting average on balls in play in that pool. Part of what makes him so volatile at the plate is being a switch-hitter who has not found comfort at either side of the plate -- particularly from the left-hand side where he will find the bulk of his plate appearances. Ted Simmons, the former switch-hitting catcher who eventually became the San Diego Padres bench coach, offered this up to ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian about hitting from both sides: It’s difficult. "Six percent of all players is a very small sample,'' Simmons told ESPN regarding having success when hitting from both sides. "And how many of that 6 percent are even capable of hitting .300? Now that 6 percent goes down to maybe 2 percent. So now we're talking about a very, very, very small sample. I also have yet to find a person that completely, totally, unequivocally has bilateral symmetry. One side is always dominant. People can't write right-handed and left-handed with the same physicality.” Hicks shares Simmons’ sentiments on switch-hitting as well. Even before his decision to drop the left-handed swing in 2014, he knew the sinister swing was his weaker side. “I play golf right-handed. I do everything right-handed,” Hicks told Alan Maimon and Chuck Myron in their book Hits and Misses in the Baseball Draft before the start of the 2012 season. “I think one of the main reasons I’m good at hitting baseball right-handed is because of the eye-hand coordination I developed playing golf. I never felt the same confidence hitting left-handed. And neither did my coaches. In high school, they’d say, ‘Hey, we’ve got the bases loaded. Can Aaron please hit right-handed, so we can win this game?’ [before the 2012 season], I fooled around with playing left-handed golf. I think it helped my left-handed baseball swing come along.” Beyond the strains of switch-hitting, what is happening in his swing that is hindering his ability to make quality contact? In 2012 Hicks said to the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller in a Baseball America article that he had been tinkering too much with his swing the previous season. “I never got any consistency last year because I was just tweaking my swing too much,” the Hicks said. “I tried my hands high, then tried them low. I tried holding my bat still, then I tried letting my hands move more freely. I was constantly changing it up.” Despite trying multiple swings along the way, it appears that the bulk of the modifications were focused on his hands. Judging from recent video, the problem could be a few feet lower. Watch his swing up to the point of contact from the left-hand side. http://i.imgur.com/JHhf3Jt.gif At the end of the clip, keep an eye on his front foot as it begins to turn and roll. For the majority of hitters, the process of turning over their front foot begins after contact, not before (with Jason Heyward being one of those outlying exceptions). While there are almost unlimited examples to compare to, below is a comparison of Hicks to teammate Joe Mauer before contact. Download attachment: AH_LHB.jpg Download attachment: JM_LHB.jpg When this was presented to hitting instruction Bobby Tewksbary, who has worked with Jason Donaldson and Chris Colabello, Tewksbary said he believes this to be the symptom of a larger issue with his swing. This is an indicator that his front side is pulling out. In the video clip above, it is clear that his front side is drifting well below the point of contact. The planted front foot ensures a strong leverage point and keeps the hips from opening up too soon. If the front side opens up, the swing as a tendency to lag through the zone and the outer-half of the plate becomes a safe haven for pitchers. This is why pitchers likely targeted Hicks in that location: Download attachment: strike-zone (6).png Perhaps even more disheartening is that pitchers threw plenty of pitches over the heart of the plate with which Hicks has been unable to produce. Hicks’ practice of turning over on his foot before contact happens from the right-side as well. As he stated before, he is a much more natural hitter from the right so he demonstrates better contact and more power. That said, he still drifts: Download attachment: AH_RHB.jpg Download attachment: AJ_RHB.jpg **** Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky has been credited with working wonders on a handful of his players. Hicks, on the other hand, has been a complete mystery. Gifted with the tools to succeed at the highest level, the ability to hit consistently has eluded him. To this point, Brunansky and the rest of the organization’s coaches have not been able to figure out that problem either. If the Twins have spotted this and have tried to get him to stop turning off his front side, then it would seem that he has not been unable to replicate the work in the cages into the game. It is also possible that he was working on it in Venezuela, hence the low yield at the plate. If they have not, it could pay dividends to attempt to have Hicks try to work on keeping his front foot firm up to the point of contact. Either way, progress needs to be made. As much as Hicks could use a good season at the plate, the Twins could really benefit from having a strong contributor at a key position. Click here to view the article
  8. The offseason did not start off well for Hicks: In November he was released from his Venezuelan winter ball team after hitting just .220/.381/.280 in 16 games. The explanation from his team was that he was released because of the poor production but there were rumblings from local media that the Venezuelan team was also upset with his attitude. Whatever the case might be between him and Bravos de Margarita, earlier in the offseason general manager Terry Ryan was emphatic that the Twins organization had no concerns over Hicks’ drive and makeup. Meanwhile, during his introductory conference call with season ticket holders manager Paul Molitor reiterated his hopes that Hicks will be able to hold the center field job. That, of course, will depend on how much he can do with the stick. Since coming up to the Twins in 2013, Hicks has posted an OPS+ of 69 (heh) which is 79 out of 89 hitters who have played at least 25 games in center. Ahead of him? Sam Fuld (76), Jordan Schafer (82), Alex Presley (83) and Danny Santana (130). With the exception of Santana those other three players were readily available, making Hicks the epitome of a player below replacement-level. It is a shame considering Hicks has the requisite tools necessary to be a solid contributor. All that is, except hitting. If the baseball saying goes " Hit and we’ll find a position for you" is true, the opposite is certainly valid for those who cannot hit. There does not seem to be any reason to blame bad luck for the low offensive numbers, either. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, since 2013 Hicks’ hard-hit average has been at .115 -- well below the average of .155, and qualifies as 31 of 36 center fielders with 400 plate appearances. Because of this, it is easy to see why he wound up with the second lowest batting average on balls in play in that pool. Part of what makes him so volatile at the plate is being a switch-hitter who has not found comfort at either side of the plate -- particularly from the left-hand side where he will find the bulk of his plate appearances. Ted Simmons, the former switch-hitting catcher who eventually became the San Diego Padres bench coach, offered this up to ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian about hitting from both sides: It’s difficult. "Six percent of all players is a very small sample,'' Simmons told ESPN regarding having success when hitting from both sides. "And how many of that 6 percent are even capable of hitting .300? Now that 6 percent goes down to maybe 2 percent. So now we're talking about a very, very, very small sample. I also have yet to find a person that completely, totally, unequivocally has bilateral symmetry. One side is always dominant. People can't write right-handed and left-handed with the same physicality.” Hicks shares Simmons’ sentiments on switch-hitting as well. Even before his decision to drop the left-handed swing in 2014, he knew the sinister swing was his weaker side. “I play golf right-handed. I do everything right-handed,” Hicks told Alan Maimon and Chuck Myron in their book Hits and Misses in the Baseball Draft before the start of the 2012 season. “I think one of the main reasons I’m good at hitting baseball right-handed is because of the eye-hand coordination I developed playing golf. I never felt the same confidence hitting left-handed. And neither did my coaches. In high school, they’d say, ‘Hey, we’ve got the bases loaded. Can Aaron please hit right-handed, so we can win this game?’ [before the 2012 season], I fooled around with playing left-handed golf. I think it helped my left-handed baseball swing come along.” Beyond the strains of switch-hitting, what is happening in his swing that is hindering his ability to make quality contact? In 2012 Hicks said to the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller in a Baseball America article that he had been tinkering too much with his swing the previous season. “I never got any consistency last year because I was just tweaking my swing too much,” the Hicks said. “I tried my hands high, then tried them low. I tried holding my bat still, then I tried letting my hands move more freely. I was constantly changing it up.” Despite trying multiple swings along the way, it appears that the bulk of the modifications were focused on his hands. Judging from recent video, the problem could be a few feet lower. Watch his swing up to the point of contact from the left-hand side. http://i.imgur.com/JHhf3Jt.gif At the end of the clip, keep an eye on his front foot as it begins to turn and roll. For the majority of hitters, the process of turning over their front foot begins after contact, not before (with Jason Heyward being one of those outlying exceptions). While there are almost unlimited examples to compare to, below is a comparison of Hicks to teammate Joe Mauer before contact. When this was presented to hitting instruction Bobby Tewksbary, who has worked with Jason Donaldson and Chris Colabello, Tewksbary said he believes this to be the symptom of a larger issue with his swing. This is an indicator that his front side is pulling out. In the video clip above, it is clear that his front side is drifting well below the point of contact. The planted front foot ensures a strong leverage point and keeps the hips from opening up too soon. If the front side opens up, the swing as a tendency to lag through the zone and the outer-half of the plate becomes a safe haven for pitchers. This is why pitchers likely targeted Hicks in that location: Perhaps even more disheartening is that pitchers threw plenty of pitches over the heart of the plate with which Hicks has been unable to produce. Hicks’ practice of turning over on his foot before contact happens from the right-side as well. As he stated before, he is a much more natural hitter from the right so he demonstrates better contact and more power. That said, he still drifts: **** Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky has been credited with working wonders on a handful of his players. Hicks, on the other hand, has been a complete mystery. Gifted with the tools to succeed at the highest level, the ability to hit consistently has eluded him. To this point, Brunansky and the rest of the organization’s coaches have not been able to figure out that problem either. If the Twins have spotted this and have tried to get him to stop turning off his front side, then it would seem that he has not been unable to replicate the work in the cages into the game. It is also possible that he was working on it in Venezuela, hence the low yield at the plate. If they have not, it could pay dividends to attempt to have Hicks try to work on keeping his front foot firm up to the point of contact. Either way, progress needs to be made. As much as Hicks could use a good season at the plate, the Twins could really benefit from having a strong contributor at a key position.
  9. Agreed. I think that their signing wasn't bad in and of itself. The problem was that depth quickly became an issue.
  10. On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman rehash the happenings that came from Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings, including the signing of pitcher Ervin "#SmellBaseball" Santana, exploring quotes from Paul Molitor and possibly saying farewell to Chris Parmelee. Click to listen below. NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #34: BASEBALL'S WINTER MEETINGS Other topics from this week's show include more payroll talk and lying to your children during the holidays. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #34: BASEBALL'S WINTER MEETINGS Click here to view the article
  11. NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #34: BASEBALL'S WINTER MEETINGS Other topics from this week's show include more payroll talk and lying to your children during the holidays. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #34: BASEBALL'S WINTER MEETINGS
  12. Here's some good insight on Allen and the changeup: Read the full article here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21043
  13. The Minnesota Twins appear to be on the verge of announcing the signing of 32-year-old Ervin Santana. Once he passes his physical, he will be a Twin for the next four years, for better or worse. If you are looking his recent track record, you may find similarities in his numbers to those of Twins' pitcher Ricky Nolasco in that same time span. Behind the pile of numbers is a slightly different story for Santana. After the dreadful 2012, over the past two seasons he has been an above average pitcher. Here is why this is a good trend.Like rock music’s Santana, Ervin’s delivery is now Smooth In 2012, Santana was a mess. His velocity was down, his command had escaped him and opponents were dropping dingers all over place (he allowed an MLB-high 39 home runs). While with the Angels, manager Mike Scioscia questioned whether Santana could maintain a consistent release point and often found his mechanics erratic. Whether his mechanics played a role, the right-handed witnessed a decline in his fastball’s velocity and the ability to regularly throw it for a strike. That year 23 of his league-leading 39 home runs came on his fastball. Tired of paying for more baseballs, Los Angeles decided not to pick up his option for 2013 and traded him to Kansas City. Somewhere between California and Missouri, Santana smoothed out rough spots in his delivery that had plagued him with the Angels. Most noticeably, in 2012 Santana had the habit of tilting his upper body towards the first base side while in the full windup before driving towards home. The result of this was a front side that would fly open (his glove side drifting towards the first base line prematurely) and creating issues for his command. http://i.imgur.com/DW5rEpk.gif At some point with the Royals, this was corrected and his upper body weight stayed above his back leg and tilted slightly towards the third base side while gathering. When driving towards the plate he remains on line and his glove side does not flip as quickly. http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif In these two examples both catchers are indicating they want a slider thrown down and on Santana’s glove side. Because of the mechanics in 2012, his arm drags and is not able to finish the slider properly. The slider stays up and in. (Although he misses his spot, Seattle’s Jesus Montero is flummoxed anyway as everyone knows his bats are afraid of balls that curve.) In the 2014 example, because of his fluid and smooth delivery Santana is able to place his slider in a much better spot. According to ESPN/TruMedia, Santana has shown a much better tendency of burying the slider and keeping it out of the middle of the strike zone: http://i.imgur.com/dM5yuzX.gif In addition to the slider, Santana’s fastball also lost some velocity in 2012. While not even one mile per hour on average, it still was a noticeable drop. Like the slider, he was unable to locate the fastball in the zone. Santana’s most significant improvement came at the apex of his delivery. He still lifts his hands over his head but rather than keeping his glove high and his arms away from his body, he now lowers his glove and keeps everything in tight. This may seem minor but it helps with his tempo. Whereas the Braves’ version is smooth, the Angels delivery feels like his lower and upper halves are playing catch-up throughout his delivery. Download attachment: Santana_2012_Balance Point.jpg Download attachment: Santana_2014_Balance Point.jpg In all, smoothing out his delivery has led to better execution and better command of his pitches. If Santana is able to maintain these consistent mechanics, there should be little concern for a repeat of his 2012 campaign. Adapt or die While his season in Kansas City could arguably be considered his best, it is hard not to envy the amount of defense he had behind him in Royals uniforms. Because of the coverage, Santana turned in one of the lowest opponent bartting average of his career. In Atlanta, he did not have the same luxury. Getting to face a pitcher in the batting order a few times each game certainly boosted the strikeout numbers but Santana made another adjustment to keep hitters off-balance. As Fangraphs.com’s Jeff Sullivan pointed out in April, Santana was suddenly unleashing a changeup that he had rarely used in previous seasons. After throwing it just 5.5% of the time from 2009 to 2013, with the Braves Santana upped that to 14%. The wrinkle gave opponents one more pitch to think about and wound up inducing a swing-and-miss nearly 30% of the time. Deployed mainly on lefties, the seldom seen pitch was making appearances in hitters’ counts and frequently thrown to set up a slider for the kill. In fact, according to ESPN’s data, Santana struck out 24 batters on sliders set up by changeups. In the previous four seasons, he had managed to ring up 12 batters combined using that method. Revisiting the GIF above, Santana’s strikeout of Washington’s Adam LaRoche came on a slider after he threw a changeup that stayed away for strike two. If you watch LaRoche’s reactions, he is clearly sold on another changeup only to make a foolish effort to make contact when the ball begins to bite. http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif Santana’s changeup seems to be an ever-evolving pitch for him. In Los Angeles, he displayed a split-change, something he picked up from split-fingered fastball specialist Dan Haren. Meanwhile, this past year Santana showed Fangraphs.com’s Eno Sarris his latest changeup grip which looks like a palmball thrown at the fingertips (man, does Santana have some long digits): But Santana seems to employ multiple grips on his change. There’s also a slight split version and a circle-change looking grip. The trick for Santana has been keeping his arm action similar to the fastball while shaving off some velocity. This past year he threwn it at 84 mph on average, giving him a solid six-to-eight miles an hour of difference between it and his fastball. Lefties overall finished decently against Santana. When all was said and done, they batted .291 but because of the new mix, Santana was able to strike them out in a greater volume and limit the number of home runs hit. The takeaway Over the course of his career, Santana’s hit some high notes. He has also been banged around. While his slider is a legitimate pitch, he still allows a hefty number of balls in play, most of which are in the form of fly balls. Target Field's pitcher-friendly environment should limit the home runs but the questionable outfield defense may allow more extra base hits. Based on the changes in his mechanics and his willingness to modify his pitch selection, Santana appears to be headed for a good year in the short-term. The real question is f he can remain healthy and productive in the latter half of his four-year contract. For now, Santana is a definite upgrade to the Twins rotation. Click here to view the article
  14. Like rock music’s Santana, Ervin’s delivery is now Smooth In 2012, Santana was a mess. His velocity was down, his command had escaped him and opponents were dropping dingers all over place (he allowed an MLB-high 39 home runs). While with the Angels, manager Mike Scioscia questioned whether Santana could maintain a consistent release point and often found his mechanics erratic. Whether his mechanics played a role, the right-handed witnessed a decline in his fastball’s velocity and the ability to regularly throw it for a strike. That year 23 of his league-leading 39 home runs came on his fastball. Tired of paying for more baseballs, Los Angeles decided not to pick up his option for 2013 and traded him to Kansas City. Somewhere between California and Missouri, Santana smoothed out rough spots in his delivery that had plagued him with the Angels. Most noticeably, in 2012 Santana had the habit of tilting his upper body towards the first base side while in the full windup before driving towards home. The result of this was a front side that would fly open (his glove side drifting towards the first base line prematurely) and creating issues for his command. http://i.imgur.com/DW5rEpk.gif At some point with the Royals, this was corrected and his upper body weight stayed above his back leg and tilted slightly towards the third base side while gathering. When driving towards the plate he remains on line and his glove side does not flip as quickly. http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif In these two examples both catchers are indicating they want a slider thrown down and on Santana’s glove side. Because of the mechanics in 2012, his arm drags and is not able to finish the slider properly. The slider stays up and in. (Although he misses his spot, Seattle’s Jesus Montero is flummoxed anyway as everyone knows his bats are afraid of balls that curve.) In the 2014 example, because of his fluid and smooth delivery Santana is able to place his slider in a much better spot. According to ESPN/TruMedia, Santana has shown a much better tendency of burying the slider and keeping it out of the middle of the strike zone: http://i.imgur.com/dM5yuzX.gif In addition to the slider, Santana’s fastball also lost some velocity in 2012. While not even one mile per hour on average, it still was a noticeable drop. Like the slider, he was unable to locate the fastball in the zone. Santana’s most significant improvement came at the apex of his delivery. He still lifts his hands over his head but rather than keeping his glove high and his arms away from his body, he now lowers his glove and keeps everything in tight. This may seem minor but it helps with his tempo. Whereas the Braves’ version is smooth, the Angels delivery feels like his lower and upper halves are playing catch-up throughout his delivery. In all, smoothing out his delivery has led to better execution and better command of his pitches. If Santana is able to maintain these consistent mechanics, there should be little concern for a repeat of his 2012 campaign. Adapt or die While his season in Kansas City could arguably be considered his best, it is hard not to envy the amount of defense he had behind him in Royals uniforms. Because of the coverage, Santana turned in one of the lowest opponent bartting average of his career. In Atlanta, he did not have the same luxury. Getting to face a pitcher in the batting order a few times each game certainly boosted the strikeout numbers but Santana made another adjustment to keep hitters off-balance. As Fangraphs.com’s Jeff Sullivan pointed out in April, Santana was suddenly unleashing a changeup that he had rarely used in previous seasons. After throwing it just 5.5% of the time from 2009 to 2013, with the Braves Santana upped that to 14%. The wrinkle gave opponents one more pitch to think about and wound up inducing a swing-and-miss nearly 30% of the time. Deployed mainly on lefties, the seldom seen pitch was making appearances in hitters’ counts and frequently thrown to set up a slider for the kill. In fact, according to ESPN’s data, Santana struck out 24 batters on sliders set up by changeups. In the previous four seasons, he had managed to ring up 12 batters combined using that method. Revisiting the GIF above, Santana’s strikeout of Washington’s Adam LaRoche came on a slider after he threw a changeup that stayed away for strike two. If you watch LaRoche’s reactions, he is clearly sold on another changeup only to make a foolish effort to make contact when the ball begins to bite. http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif Santana’s changeup seems to be an ever-evolving pitch for him. In Los Angeles, he displayed a split-change, something he picked up from split-fingered fastball specialist Dan Haren. Meanwhile, this past year Santana showed Fangraphs.com’s Eno Sarris his latest changeup grip which looks like a palmball thrown at the fingertips (man, does Santana have some long digits): But Santana seems to employ multiple grips on his change. There’s also a slight split version and a circle-change looking grip. The trick for Santana has been keeping his arm action similar to the fastball while shaving off some velocity. This past year he threwn it at 84 mph on average, giving him a solid six-to-eight miles an hour of difference between it and his fastball. Lefties overall finished decently against Santana. When all was said and done, they batted .291 but because of the new mix, Santana was able to strike them out in a greater volume and limit the number of home runs hit. The takeaway Over the course of his career, Santana’s hit some high notes. He has also been banged around. While his slider is a legitimate pitch, he still allows a hefty number of balls in play, most of which are in the form of fly balls. Target Field's pitcher-friendly environment should limit the home runs but the questionable outfield defense may allow more extra base hits. Based on the changes in his mechanics and his willingness to modify his pitch selection, Santana appears to be headed for a good year in the short-term. The real question is f he can remain healthy and productive in the latter half of his four-year contract. For now, Santana is a definite upgrade to the Twins rotation.
  15. I guess I'd prefer that to what is happening in Milwaukee with their debt service repayment program: http://www.jsonline.com/news/miller-park-stadium-district-increases-operations-budget-b99389028z1-282365821.html
  16. MLBAM's revenue capabilities is downright breathtaking. It truly is. I posted this comment originally over at Jon's blog post but here is a re-post: That's JUST TV REVENUE, not Target Field revenue. Here's the link to the 2013 article: http://awfulannouncing.com/2013/how-mlb-splits-your-tv-dollars.html Are the Pohlads just pocketing money? I don't think it is as malicious of a money-grab as some commentors like to believe. Dave St. Peter addressed some of this issue on our podcast a few weeks ago -- http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/podcasts/no-juice-podcast-27-dave-st-peter-r3169. I should also add that he is attending our second Twins Daily Winter Meltdown as a speaker again so you will be able to ask him payroll questions in person. https://twitter.com/nojuicepodcast/status/527468288511856640
  17. 1. I don't think they have ever directly used that line. It seems to be something that has been recited in the media echo chamber. 2. I don't think that has been the issue as of late either. Unless Dave St. Peter was blowing smoke, the Twins tried to sign Garza and Ervin Santana after signing Hughes/Nolasco. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/podcasts/no-juice-podcast-27-dave-st-peter-r3169 Other members of the front office had brought that up off the record as well. As it turns out, sometimes free agents just don't want to sign with teams for reason. It may say a lot about the status of the organization. 3. Also, if accurate, the Twins should be making an estimated $86M on TV revenue (their own + revenue sharing) in 2015. That would have covered their 2014 payroll. There is definitely money to spend this year. Depending on what their estimates are for revenue at Target Field this year, there should definitely be room for a payroll of $100-$130M without flinching. The one thing I do agree with the Twins on is avoiding long contracts. Those have a tendency of souring. I'd rather they overpay three times over for 2-3 year contract than try to sign a Jon Lester to a six-year deal. In the end, the Twins probably are in the situation where they may leave payroll money on the table that goes back to ownership. It is unappetizing but I do not think it is malicious or a money grab.
  18. Hi Jon. Big fan. Love your work. For people that always say SPEND! I just ask one thing: Outline specifically on who or what you would want that money spent on. I'm completely in agreement that I want to see them spend more but only to do so in the best interest of the team. You could give Kyle Kendrick a $15M a year contract to help spend that extra $30M the Twins will receive this year but I don't think that is in the best interest of the team. Kthxbai!
  19. When I spoke to Brunansky on the available data his take on it is that he needs to know all of it and be able to present it to the players in ways they can understand.
  20. http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/I-dont-get-it2.gif
  21. Part of Paul Molitor's appeal as a managerial candidate for the Minnesota Twins has been his willingness to embrace data and information in ways that his predecessor did not. Not only would Molitor be able to draw from his years of experience in the game but he would also add to it an analytical side that would provide an advantage for his players. As it turns out, not everyone on the team shares the same opinion on sabermetrics.“I think whoever believes in that sabermetrics stuff never played the game and won’t understand it. There’s no way you can measure playing outfield. Only eyes can do that,” the 39-year-old Torii Hunter told a room full of media onlookers, whirling recorders and broadcasting cameras last Wednesday. That would be only the fourth-most troublesome thing he said during the introductory press conference. Here’s the thing about Hunter’s opinion on sabermetrics: It doesn’t matter what he thinks. The stats community releases plenty of deep sighs whenever a player makes a reference to sabermetrics being nothing but a bunch of nerdery for Harry Potter enthusiasts to post on the internet between live-action role playing sessions. It doesn’t matter if Hunter thinks UZR stands for Untamed Zebra Riders and measures space lint; Hunter and other players do not need to know or understand the data, they just need to execute. Take Glen Perkins. Perkins might be the closest thing to a stathead in the major leagues. And though he will tell you he looks at fielding independent pitching numbers to help balance himself between outings, once he hits the field the numbers disappear. ‘‘The only thing I analyze when I’m out there is what stuff I have and what the hitter is doing,’’ he told the Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan in 2013. ‘‘All the numbers, all the stuff that I love, doesn’t play when you’re on the field. None of that stuff is a scouting tool for a player facing another player.’’ Like Hunter, Twins second baseman Brian Dozier wants little to do with the sabermetric fielding data and shares the same sentiment in regard to those who do use it. "Obviously that's part of the game now more than ever. I really don't (pay attention to it) because as far as defensively, sabermetrically, anything like that, I think it's people behind a desk trying to dictate how you play the game," Dozier told FoxSportsNorth.com’s Tyler Mason this past April. "That's not the way the game's been played. Nobody can see what's inside of you.” Haters gonna hate. Players gonna play. In spite of the fact that Hunter may think sabermetrics is on par with unicorn droppings, his new manager Paul Molitor “believes” in the sabermetrics stuff and had played the game a little bit himself. “My reaction to Torii’s sabermetrics declining considerably in the past few years, that doesn’t concern me,” Molitor told reporters in sunsoaked San Diego on Tuesday during the Winter Meetings. “Now you can measure range and all those things, but I’ll take his experience and knowledge and throw him out there with a couple of young outfielders and take my chances with no hesitancy whatsoever. Yeah, he’s 39. He’s not 29. We all get that, but I’m confident about what he’s going to bring to our team from many different areas including not being concerned about his defense.” In not so many words Molitor acknowledged that Hunter’s range has diminished, which is what the sabermetric stats were saying about him all along. The response was a diplomatic managerial answer. Ultimately, Molitor views Hunter’s defense -- at least the portions that are not measured by ultimate zone rating or Inside Edge’s video scouts -- as a significant upgrade over Oswaldo Arcia. “I watched how Scottie [ulger] worked with [Arcia] last year in the outfield, and they’ll go out there in right field and Scottie will hit balls in corner and say this ball is a double. Your objective is not to play it into a triple,” Molitor explained. “During the game someone will hit it down the line and he’ll try to slide and stop the ball before it gets into the corner and it turns a double into a triple.” Choosing to downplay Hunter’s defensive data does not mean Molitor is avoiding the statistical side of the game as a manager. Molitor credits his time around some of the game’s forward-thinkers at the helm, particularly former Brewers manager Tom Trebelhorn. “I was fortunate being around guys like George [bamberger], and Harvey [Kuenn], and a young Buck Rogers in his first time managing, and then a young guy like Tom Trebelhorn comes in and kind of innovative and a new thinker and you learn from that.” Trebelhorn was one of the early adaptors of statistical analysis in the dugout. According to his book “Behind-the-Scenes Baseball”, Doug Decatur recalls his time as a statistical consultant for Trebelhorn and the Brewers, writing over 200 stat reports that he would fax the then-Brewers manager. In 1991, Decatur would provide Trebelhorn with information for best bullpen deployment or batting order optimization, ideas that are almost standard now and available online but were groundbreaking at the time. “I’m learning more about sabermetrics all the time. Obviously, as a coach last year, I was exposed to them at a deeper level than I had been as a minor league player development person,” Molitor said. At the major league level, the available data can be enough to “choke a cow” as hitting coach Tom Brunansky tells it. Or it is like “drinking out of a firehose” as former pitcher Cole Devries described it. For Molitor, as a coach he was able to take it in at a slower pace. The exposure to data last year was something he sought out on his own, according to Twins’ manager of baseball research Jack Goin. When he was hired as a coach, Goin and his team briefed Molitor on what they could provide him and how he could obtain it. From there, Molitor was highly proficient at procuring information and implementing it into action, such as in the form of an increase in infield shifts. Now the team’s manager, Molitor is seemingly headed towards expanding the use of the information but with caution. “I’m going to try to learn what I think is valuable in assessing who plays, lineups, all those type of things. But I’m going to hopefully have enough confidence in myself to have a feel for players, and flow, and season, and momentum where I can trust some of that too. But I think with all the things that are out there, you can overwhelm yourself. But obviously some of it makes sense, and it’s proven to be successful in how managers integrate it into their system both defensively and offensively.” Click here to view the article
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