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Everything posted by Parker Hageman
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Sure but couple things -- Santana is at a position where his manager has stated he is his guy and, because the Twins used him in center field last year, the team is giving him a longer leash before making a switch. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/twins-to-let-santana-stick-it-out-at-short-r3578 Now with Vargas, he plays a position that is can be replaced with Josmil Pinto easily and allow him to make whatever adjustments the Twins feel he needs to make by playing regularly. Santana may be getting to the point where he's showing some better stick. Over the last 5 games, he's 8-for-19 (.421). Small sample size, to be sure, but he has a good swing from both sides. He won't walk but early in the year, teams pumped in-zone pitches and forced him to swing. He missed a lot and hit into outs a lot. Once he starts hitting, I would assume pitchers will give him fewer strikes and he may actually mix in a walk or two.
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There is no denying the fact that Kennys Vargas has been mired in an extended slump. The Twins watched as their designated hitter swung like he was in quicksand in Seattle, making the situation worse with every swing. For the next two games he sat. The starting lineup time-out was intended to recalibrate and get him to realize that he needed to refocus on his mechanics. Collect, gather and go. As the smoke cleared after Thursday night’s 12-2 drubbing of the Chicago White Sox, the only Twins hitter in the lineup to not reach base or score was Kennys Vargas. He struck out twice.When he takes a cut, everyone in a three block radius of the ballpark can feel it as the wind changes direction on the plaza. And it is not just dirty breaking balls that have been giving Vargas fits. He is swinging through fastballs in the zone regularly as well. For instance, last year he missed a fastball 17% of the time when he offered. This year that has ballooned to 32% of his swings. Only seven other hitters this season have a higher rate than Vargas. Trevor Plouffe, who battled through his own adjustments entering the league, recently discussed how the game of baseball is a progression for hitters. Pitchers will start a new player with fastballs in the four-spot of the strike zone and once they prove they can hit that pitch, they will start to pick at other weaknesses. For Vargas, that has been being pitches down in the zone and away. His need to hit the ball as hard as he can has resulted in empty swings or weak groundouts. In spring training the coaching staff made it clear that Vargas should focus less on hitting for show during batting practice and work on driving the ball where it is pitched. “I think that's a constant message we have with him and (Oswaldo) Arcia and some of the guys that have a tendency to want to have that home-run competition in BP, which doesn't mean a thing," Paul Molitor told reporters in March. "It's fun once in a while at the end of your rounds to go ahead and do some things that break up the mundane routine of having to perfect your craft, but in general it's not how you want to go about getting better as a hitter." It was stressed that the message was not to tone down the power but rather prepare for being attacked by major league pitchers with major league velocity. Eddie Guardado’s BP fastball would be no substitute for that of Chris Sale. As the Twins were ready to leave Florida, Molitor announced that he would be starting the year with Torii Hunter or Trevor Plouffe as his cleanup candidates despite the fact that the imposing Vargas was hitting balls into the gulf on the reg. The Twins manager recognized that the young slugger was not ready to assume the demands of batting fourth. As the first month of the regular season progressed, the question transitioned from where Vargas should hit in the lineup to whether he should be in the lineup at all. From the perspective of the coaching staff, Vargas continued to treat his pregame work as his own personal home run derby which affected his in-game performance. “You [should] try to take batting practice that is more game-realistic. Don’t become too concerned with how far you hit them when a guy is throwing 60 mph,” Molitor told reporters this week. “It’s about trying to keep it crisp, use your barrel, keep it short, see the ball first.” Vargas’ 2015 has been marred by not adjusting to how pitchers are approaching him. For example in the Kansas City series, Vargas was in a favorable 2-1 count against the left-handed slopper Jason Vargas (no relation). For most of his professional career, Vargas was likely used to seeing a high percentage of in-zone fastballs by minor league pitchers who were afraid of the count going 3-1. However, the pitcher Vargas threw an offspeed pitch down and away which hitter Vargas was not expecting and turned over. http://i.imgur.com/QH8PAx4.gif Like batting practice, the approach was all-or-nothing. He seemed to be thinking fastball the whole way and was only going to swing like it was a fastball. To be sure, Vargas’ big leg kick and loading process are sound power generators. The issue surfaces when his pitch recognition and anticipation are out of whack and the timing mechanism breaks down. Last season after using the leg kick for the season in the minors, the Twins convinced Vargas to reduce the leg kick and load in order to cover the range of speed and breaks that he would see. In comparison to the Vargas-on-Vargas action above, in this at bat against the White Sox Sale last year shows how balanced he was and not overcommitting to a pitch. http://i.imgur.com/qUmK1Zb.gif By the end of last season, with his confidence inflated, Vargas had returned to the big leg kick swing. Now hitting .172 and 21 strikeouts in 64 at-bats, is it time to return to the muted mechanics of 2014? Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky noted how difficult it is to get hitters who did well in the minors to revamp their mechanics - even if it is needed. “You can't come and change,” said Brunansky. “The hardest thing to do is tell a young hitter who has had success in the minor leagues who needs to change it at the major league level because they are going to say 'I hit like this'...but [the major leagues are] a different animal.” Brunansky stresses process. The process of making small adjustments outside the game and bring that over to the field following the national anthem. But convincing someone to make changes becomes increasingly challenging when the prep work becomes about seeing how far the ball flies. Then gain, Vargas did just fine last year with the reduced movement swing and was still able to hit the ball a country mile. http://i.imgur.com/ci1bG3X.gif The Twins know that Vargas is in need of adjustments and they sat him several games to drive the point home. There is an established track record for Vargas: tone it down or get the timing down. Clearly his potential is worth the trouble but with Josmil Pinto performing well with the bat in Rochester, it may be time to consider the swap. Click here to view the article
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When he takes a cut, everyone in a three block radius of the ballpark can feel it as the wind changes direction on the plaza. And it is not just dirty breaking balls that have been giving Vargas fits. He is swinging through fastballs in the zone regularly as well. For instance, last year he missed a fastball 17% of the time when he offered. This year that has ballooned to 32% of his swings. Only seven other hitters this season have a higher rate than Vargas. Trevor Plouffe, who battled through his own adjustments entering the league, recently discussed how the game of baseball is a progression for hitters. Pitchers will start a new player with fastballs in the four-spot of the strike zone and once they prove they can hit that pitch, they will start to pick at other weaknesses. For Vargas, that has been being pitches down in the zone and away. His need to hit the ball as hard as he can has resulted in empty swings or weak groundouts. In spring training the coaching staff made it clear that Vargas should focus less on hitting for show during batting practice and work on driving the ball where it is pitched. “I think that's a constant message we have with him and (Oswaldo) Arcia and some of the guys that have a tendency to want to have that home-run competition in BP, which doesn't mean a thing," Paul Molitor told reporters in March. "It's fun once in a while at the end of your rounds to go ahead and do some things that break up the mundane routine of having to perfect your craft, but in general it's not how you want to go about getting better as a hitter." It was stressed that the message was not to tone down the power but rather prepare for being attacked by major league pitchers with major league velocity. Eddie Guardado’s BP fastball would be no substitute for that of Chris Sale. As the Twins were ready to leave Florida, Molitor announced that he would be starting the year with Torii Hunter or Trevor Plouffe as his cleanup candidates despite the fact that the imposing Vargas was hitting balls into the gulf on the reg. The Twins manager recognized that the young slugger was not ready to assume the demands of batting fourth. As the first month of the regular season progressed, the question transitioned from where Vargas should hit in the lineup to whether he should be in the lineup at all. From the perspective of the coaching staff, Vargas continued to treat his pregame work as his own personal home run derby which affected his in-game performance. “You [should] try to take batting practice that is more game-realistic. Don’t become too concerned with how far you hit them when a guy is throwing 60 mph,” Molitor told reporters this week. “It’s about trying to keep it crisp, use your barrel, keep it short, see the ball first.” Vargas’ 2015 has been marred by not adjusting to how pitchers are approaching him. For example in the Kansas City series, Vargas was in a favorable 2-1 count against the left-handed slopper Jason Vargas (no relation). For most of his professional career, Vargas was likely used to seeing a high percentage of in-zone fastballs by minor league pitchers who were afraid of the count going 3-1. However, the pitcher Vargas threw an offspeed pitch down and away which hitter Vargas was not expecting and turned over. http://i.imgur.com/QH8PAx4.gif Like batting practice, the approach was all-or-nothing. He seemed to be thinking fastball the whole way and was only going to swing like it was a fastball. To be sure, Vargas’ big leg kick and loading process are sound power generators. The issue surfaces when his pitch recognition and anticipation are out of whack and the timing mechanism breaks down. Last season after using the leg kick for the season in the minors, the Twins convinced Vargas to reduce the leg kick and load in order to cover the range of speed and breaks that he would see. In comparison to the Vargas-on-Vargas action above, in this at bat against the White Sox Sale last year shows how balanced he was and not overcommitting to a pitch. http://i.imgur.com/qUmK1Zb.gif By the end of last season, with his confidence inflated, Vargas had returned to the big leg kick swing. Now hitting .172 and 21 strikeouts in 64 at-bats, is it time to return to the muted mechanics of 2014? Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky noted how difficult it is to get hitters who did well in the minors to revamp their mechanics - even if it is needed. “You can't come and change,” said Brunansky. “The hardest thing to do is tell a young hitter who has had success in the minor leagues who needs to change it at the major league level because they are going to say 'I hit like this'...but [the major leagues are] a different animal.” Brunansky stresses process. The process of making small adjustments outside the game and bring that over to the field following the national anthem. But convincing someone to make changes becomes increasingly challenging when the prep work becomes about seeing how far the ball flies. Then gain, Vargas did just fine last year with the reduced movement swing and was still able to hit the ball a country mile. http://i.imgur.com/ci1bG3X.gif The Twins know that Vargas is in need of adjustments and they sat him several games to drive the point home. There is an established track record for Vargas: tone it down or get the timing down. Clearly his potential is worth the trouble but with Josmil Pinto performing well with the bat in Rochester, it may be time to consider the swap.
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I am really impressed by his maturity as a hitter over the last several years. He has a very good understanding of how pitchers are approaching him which led to him going the other way more: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/for-young-hitters-the-struggle-is-real-r3561 Plouffe was as lost as anybody early on in his career. If he can pull it together to be an average major leaguer hitter, there is hope for the other young hitters in this lineup can at least do the same.
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On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman are joined at JL Beers in Northeast Minneapolis with MLB.com's Twins beat writer Rhett Bollinger to review where the Twins are at three weeks into the season. Topics include baserunning blunders, defensive lapses, starting pitching and roster moves. Listen up.JL Beers' Mike Evans joins the crew to talk about upcoming beer events that you can find more about on the JL Beers' app and explains to us why Minnesota restaurants can't sell Spotted Cow. In addition to Twins talk, Parker revisits his Tucker Maxx moment in Seattle, the Wild playoff run, getting busted with drugs in Vegas, possible Vikings draft picks and so much more. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #53: SUNDAYS WITH RHETT, VOL 2 Click here to view the article
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JL Beers' Mike Evans joins the crew to talk about upcoming beer events that you can find more about on the JL Beers' app and explains to us why Minnesota restaurants can't sell Spotted Cow. In addition to Twins talk, Parker revisits his Tucker Maxx moment in Seattle, the Wild playoff run, getting busted with drugs in Vegas, possible Vikings draft picks and so much more. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #53: SUNDAYS WITH RHETT, VOL 2
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Article: What To Make Of Mike Pelfrey
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pelfrey's stuff has been better this year (better velocity, better secondary pitch). Luck is the residual of design. Yes, he's been very fortunate that he has had players there but Pelfrey's had a lower hard-hit average on balls in play so far this year (weaker contact). Constantly adding baserunners is a bad program and playing with fire. Based on his FIP-ERA difference, if he does not shave his BB rate or increase his K rate, he's in line for regression. -
Don’t look now but the team’s ERA leader is none other than Mike Pelfrey. Is this performance legit or should we all brace for more impact? This post should come with a disclaimer in a big, bold font that screams out SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AHEAD but most people should realize that three outings is nothing to base any long-term projection on. That being said, in this small sampling Pelfrey has shown some indication that he may actually be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter.Wait. Serviceable? Yes, I know 4/20 was on Monday but believe me, I am not high. There are several reasons why maybe -- just maybe -- he might be able to provide decent innings for the Twins as a starter. For example, he has shown in his first three outings that he can miss a few bats on occasion. Pelfrey’s 2015 season has seen him hit double-digits in swinging strikes in two of the three starts. That’s mildly impressive since the last time he was healthy -- in 2013 -- he managed to induce double-digit swings-and-misses in just two of his 29 starts. Prior to his Tommy John surgery, he induced double-digit swing-and-misses in three of his 34 starts in 2011. Admittedly, even Pelfrey’s 9% swinging strike rate is still below the league’s average of 10% but it is a vast improvement from where it was. Missing bats means he is showing opponents a new wrinkle and hitting his spots just off the plate. This was something that he did not do in either of the last two seasons. During those two seasons, while recovering from Tommy John and battling a new injury, he throttled down on his mediocre fastball and opponents pasted it all over the field. In 2013, they posted an .801 OPS against it. Last year, it was at .972. The reality was that Pelfrey was unable to generate enough velocity to make the pitch effective. Over the last two years that average velocity has been 92.3 and 90.3 respectively. Now, in his first three games, he is averaging 93.4 with the fastball. Not only that, but he’s throwing it less frequently and mixing in more slow curves and introducing a split-finger that he has not used in quite some time. The change in velocity has helped keep hitters off his fastball. With the Mets, Pelfrey threw the pitch as a split-finger fastball with modest velocity. He abandoned the pitch with the Twins but has since resurrected it as more of a changeup-type offering, slowing it down some in the delivery. This has been a very effective pitch for him against left-handed hitters as he’s held that side to a .162 average. As you can see in this 2-2 splitter to the Royals’ Eric Hosmer and the 0-2 one to Kendrys Morales, this pitch has the potential to be a genuine swing-and-miss pitch against lefties: http://i.imgur.com/IAn9wzv.gif http://i.imgur.com/RUYN8uI.gif While he’s thrown the pitch in each of his three starts, he threw it 24 times against the Royals which led to three of his strikeouts including Hosmer and Morales. Oh, and the strikeout of the right-handed hitting Paulo Orlando as well. http://i.imgur.com/DOT4iSn.gif Keep in mind that although he is missing more bats on the season, he is not necessarily striking more people out. Until the game in Kansas City where he used his splitter more, he really lacked a put away pitch. If he can continue to locate this pitch like he did on Wednesday night, it could become a lethal pitch. All that is good for the Mike Pelfrey brand but there are also indications that this is all smoke-and-mirrors, such as the fact that Pelfrey has struggled to get ahead of hitters. His 56% first-pitch strike rate is well below the league’s average of 61% meaning that he is pitching from behind in the count more often than his fellow pitchers. From a deficit, it is more likely that bad things happen as he is forced to come into the zone. What’s more is that Pelfrey has continuously flirted with disaster when he puts runners on. From the stretch he hits the zone at a much lower clip and has ended up adding more base-runners via a walk. It seems like a miracle that he has been able to work out of the situations that he has created and to have a 2.65 ERA. If he cannot stop compounding the problem, at some point those base-runners will start to come home. The fact is that Pelfrey’s ceiling, based on his track record and pitch mix, is lower than most. Even with the improvements to his velocity and new pitch his upside feels like a fifth-starter in a rotation filled with fifth starters. If these improvements are sustained, the needle would move only slightly. Ultimately, he may serve better as a bullpen replacement for Blaine Boyer or Tim Stauffer. With Ricky Nolasco’s rehab start pushed to Sunday in Cedar Rapids due to inclement weather, Pelfrey should be allotted at least one more start against the Detroit Tigers to build on what he did to the Royals lineup before the team needs to make a rotation decision. The Twins will have an interesting decision to make when and if Nolasco is ready to rejoin the team, but there is one thing for certain, Trevor May should not be a casualty. Click here to view the article
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Wait. Serviceable? Yes, I know 4/20 was on Monday but believe me, I am not high. There are several reasons why maybe -- just maybe -- he might be able to provide decent innings for the Twins as a starter. For example, he has shown in his first three outings that he can miss a few bats on occasion. Pelfrey’s 2015 season has seen him hit double-digits in swinging strikes in two of the three starts. That’s mildly impressive since the last time he was healthy -- in 2013 -- he managed to induce double-digit swings-and-misses in just two of his 29 starts. Prior to his Tommy John surgery, he induced double-digit swing-and-misses in three of his 34 starts in 2011. Admittedly, even Pelfrey’s 9% swinging strike rate is still below the league’s average of 10% but it is a vast improvement from where it was. Missing bats means he is showing opponents a new wrinkle and hitting his spots just off the plate. This was something that he did not do in either of the last two seasons. During those two seasons, while recovering from Tommy John and battling a new injury, he throttled down on his mediocre fastball and opponents pasted it all over the field. In 2013, they posted an .801 OPS against it. Last year, it was at .972. The reality was that Pelfrey was unable to generate enough velocity to make the pitch effective. Over the last two years that average velocity has been 92.3 and 90.3 respectively. Now, in his first three games, he is averaging 93.4 with the fastball. Not only that, but he’s throwing it less frequently and mixing in more slow curves and introducing a split-finger that he has not used in quite some time. The change in velocity has helped keep hitters off his fastball. With the Mets, Pelfrey threw the pitch as a split-finger fastball with modest velocity. He abandoned the pitch with the Twins but has since resurrected it as more of a changeup-type offering, slowing it down some in the delivery. This has been a very effective pitch for him against left-handed hitters as he’s held that side to a .162 average. As you can see in this 2-2 splitter to the Royals’ Eric Hosmer and the 0-2 one to Kendrys Morales, this pitch has the potential to be a genuine swing-and-miss pitch against lefties: http://i.imgur.com/IAn9wzv.gif http://i.imgur.com/RUYN8uI.gif While he’s thrown the pitch in each of his three starts, he threw it 24 times against the Royals which led to three of his strikeouts including Hosmer and Morales. Oh, and the strikeout of the right-handed hitting Paulo Orlando as well. http://i.imgur.com/DOT4iSn.gif Keep in mind that although he is missing more bats on the season, he is not necessarily striking more people out. Until the game in Kansas City where he used his splitter more, he really lacked a put away pitch. If he can continue to locate this pitch like he did on Wednesday night, it could become a lethal pitch. All that is good for the Mike Pelfrey brand but there are also indications that this is all smoke-and-mirrors, such as the fact that Pelfrey has struggled to get ahead of hitters. His 56% first-pitch strike rate is well below the league’s average of 61% meaning that he is pitching from behind in the count more often than his fellow pitchers. From a deficit, it is more likely that bad things happen as he is forced to come into the zone. What’s more is that Pelfrey has continuously flirted with disaster when he puts runners on. From the stretch he hits the zone at a much lower clip and has ended up adding more base-runners via a walk. It seems like a miracle that he has been able to work out of the situations that he has created and to have a 2.65 ERA. If he cannot stop compounding the problem, at some point those base-runners will start to come home. The fact is that Pelfrey’s ceiling, based on his track record and pitch mix, is lower than most. Even with the improvements to his velocity and new pitch his upside feels like a fifth-starter in a rotation filled with fifth starters. If these improvements are sustained, the needle would move only slightly. Ultimately, he may serve better as a bullpen replacement for Blaine Boyer or Tim Stauffer. With Ricky Nolasco’s rehab start pushed to Sunday in Cedar Rapids due to inclement weather, Pelfrey should be allotted at least one more start against the Detroit Tigers to build on what he did to the Royals lineup before the team needs to make a rotation decision. The Twins will have an interesting decision to make when and if Nolasco is ready to rejoin the team, but there is one thing for certain, Trevor May should not be a casualty.
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There's little doubt that Santana can get to everything. He seems to lack the soft hands to make every play -- that's where he and Escobar differentiate. He's made some rushed throws -- there was one routine one last series in which Vargas bailed him out by scooping and there's the example above at second. He had another ground ball that he misplayed but was able to pick it back up and fire out the slow-footed Jose Abreu. To me, it looking like pressing. As Ryan said, he has all the tools. Whether it is consistent playing time to feel comfortable or just getting more exposure at short after the time off, the Twins appear set to give him development time.
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Fair point. The eye test tells me it is a strong play. How we measure it compared to his peers will certainly be up to StatsCast but even with all that data, I'm not sure it will provide an apples-to-apples comparison on that specific play. What we will be able to find is release time, velocity and maybe accuracy overall (which was lacking on that play) that will help define where Santana is at in comparison to other shortstops. Regardless of where he ranks among his peers, Danny Santana displayed a very strong arm on that particular play.
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There’s no hiding the fact that Danny Santana’s first few weeks as the Twins starting shortstop have been rough. ESPN’s stats guru Mark Simon tweeted out earlier this week that at -6, Santana’s defensive runs saved total was the worst metric among all qualified defenders. The fact is any defensive metric at this sampling size is not going to be able to give an accurate portrayal of a player’s true performance. After all, by another defensive rating system, total zone, Santana is an above average defender at short (+1). But wait, revised zone rating says he’s one of the worst at converting balls into outs so far this year.Do you see why it is hard to convince average fans to buy into the validity of defensive metrics? Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, whose defense has been considered an aspect of his game that doesn’t receive enough attention, doesn’t believe that those metrics -- good or bad -- tell the entire story of a player. “The big thing for me is that I know someone’s a good defensive player,” said the eye test advocate. Dozier is not alone. Most inside the game will tell you that they can say whether or not a player can play defense based on observations. For Dozier, his main criticism of the defensive metrics is the plays that are not included in the numbers. “As far as sabermetrics, it is mindboggling to me sometimes when I see that around the league when someone is the best fielder in the game and everyone knows he’s the best and he covers the most ground and always throws to the right bases,” Dozier said. “And some of those things don’t get factored into the sabermetrical stat that you are given at the end of the year.” Although “sabermetrical” is a made-up word derived from another made-up word, Dozier is right -- there are things that players can do defensively that will not show up in the UZRs or plus/minuses and may not give an wholly accurate representation of a player’s defense. In Santana’s case, that includes the recent relay play on Monday in which he threw the Royals’ Salvador Perez out from shallow center field. http://i.imgur.com/vdA1dol.gif Those intangible-type plays -- a play that Santana is able to convert because he is blessed with a legit GoldenEye N64 rocket launcher -- should be added to any discussion about his defensive capabilities. However when it comes to making the everyday plays a shortstop should make Santana has performed at a deficit this year. Revised zone rating, a metric based on video scouting that adds batted ball speed and trajectory, is straightforward in the sense that it categorizes if it was hit within a shortstop’s zone and whether or not the play was converted into an out. Simple. Thanks to his contact-oriented pitching staff, Santana has had 39 balls in his zone so far this year but he has only converted 27 (.692 RZR) into outs. That’s 25th of 30 shortstops. The Twins want you to take that early season production with a grain because they are convinced he is talented enough to be an everyday major league shortstop. “He can run, he can throw, he’s got range, he’s athletic, he can make the play in the hole,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan offered in regards to Santana’s ability to play shortstop. “It’s just a matter consistency, like a lot of our young players. He has all the tools to be a very quality-oriented shortstop.” Quality has been lacking in the season’s opening month both with the glove and at the plate. As Nick Nelson pointed out on Monday, part of that early season shakiness may be due to inexperience or rust from missing a year of development at the position. There may also be some issues on the field that he is carrying over from his at-bats. After eyebrow-raising production in his first season at the plate, the early returns in his sophomore season have been disappointing. As a leadoff hitter who is expected to set the table for the heart of the order, Santana has failed to get on base at even a modest clip and he has not drawn a walk in 45 plate appearances. What’s more is that his zone comprehension, while lacking to begin with, has taken severe steps backward. According to Fangraphs.com, Santana’s 52.4% out-of-zone swinging% is the highest among all qualified hitters. As a top-of-the-order presence, he needs to be able to command that zone at a much better clip. Does that poor performance with the bat get carried over to the field with him? It seems that he could be pressing in the infield. While blessed with the strong arm, he has also demonstrated that it can potentially get him into trouble, just like this throw to middle infield mate Dozier that sent him contorting in order to glove the ball. http://i.imgur.com/AcKw56X.gif Those types of plays make managers squeamish. If he continues to make these unforced errors and misplays will the Twins be quick to swap him with Eduardo Escobar who performed well in his service at short last year? “He’s basically a rookie coming up here at shortstop now,” said Ryan. “It’s not like he’s been out there four or five years. But we’ll probably have a little leniency with him because he hasn’t been up here playing shortstop on an everyday basis yet.” For the time being, the Twins will continue to roll with Santana at shortstop -- at least until either he cannot be trusted in the field or his bat never recovers from the early season slump. That being said, Ryan thinks Santana will come around and begin to impress with his raw tools. “He should make some of those plays or all of those plays that are routine, of course, but he’s capable of making some of those fantastic plays too.” Click here to view the article
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Do you see why it is hard to convince average fans to buy into the validity of defensive metrics? Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, whose defense has been considered an aspect of his game that doesn’t receive enough attention, doesn’t believe that those metrics -- good or bad -- tell the entire story of a player. “The big thing for me is that I know someone’s a good defensive player,” said the eye test advocate. Dozier is not alone. Most inside the game will tell you that they can say whether or not a player can play defense based on observations. For Dozier, his main criticism of the defensive metrics is the plays that are not included in the numbers. “As far as sabermetrics, it is mindboggling to me sometimes when I see that around the league when someone is the best fielder in the game and everyone knows he’s the best and he covers the most ground and always throws to the right bases,” Dozier said. “And some of those things don’t get factored into the sabermetrical stat that you are given at the end of the year.” Although “sabermetrical” is a made-up word derived from another made-up word, Dozier is right -- there are things that players can do defensively that will not show up in the UZRs or plus/minuses and may not give an wholly accurate representation of a player’s defense. In Santana’s case, that includes the recent relay play on Monday in which he threw the Royals’ Salvador Perez out from shallow center field. http://i.imgur.com/vdA1dol.gif Those intangible-type plays -- a play that Santana is able to convert because he is blessed with a legit GoldenEye N64 rocket launcher -- should be added to any discussion about his defensive capabilities. However when it comes to making the everyday plays a shortstop should make Santana has performed at a deficit this year. Revised zone rating, a metric based on video scouting that adds batted ball speed and trajectory, is straightforward in the sense that it categorizes if it was hit within a shortstop’s zone and whether or not the play was converted into an out. Simple. Thanks to his contact-oriented pitching staff, Santana has had 39 balls in his zone so far this year but he has only converted 27 (.692 RZR) into outs. That’s 25th of 30 shortstops. The Twins want you to take that early season production with a grain because they are convinced he is talented enough to be an everyday major league shortstop. “He can run, he can throw, he’s got range, he’s athletic, he can make the play in the hole,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan offered in regards to Santana’s ability to play shortstop. “It’s just a matter consistency, like a lot of our young players. He has all the tools to be a very quality-oriented shortstop.” Quality has been lacking in the season’s opening month both with the glove and at the plate. As Nick Nelson pointed out on Monday, part of that early season shakiness may be due to inexperience or rust from missing a year of development at the position. There may also be some issues on the field that he is carrying over from his at-bats. After eyebrow-raising production in his first season at the plate, the early returns in his sophomore season have been disappointing. As a leadoff hitter who is expected to set the table for the heart of the order, Santana has failed to get on base at even a modest clip and he has not drawn a walk in 45 plate appearances. What’s more is that his zone comprehension, while lacking to begin with, has taken severe steps backward. According to Fangraphs.com, Santana’s 52.4% out-of-zone swinging% is the highest among all qualified hitters. As a top-of-the-order presence, he needs to be able to command that zone at a much better clip. Does that poor performance with the bat get carried over to the field with him? It seems that he could be pressing in the infield. While blessed with the strong arm, he has also demonstrated that it can potentially get him into trouble, just like this throw to middle infield mate Dozier that sent him contorting in order to glove the ball. http://i.imgur.com/AcKw56X.gif Those types of plays make managers squeamish. If he continues to make these unforced errors and misplays will the Twins be quick to swap him with Eduardo Escobar who performed well in his service at short last year? “He’s basically a rookie coming up here at shortstop now,” said Ryan. “It’s not like he’s been out there four or five years. But we’ll probably have a little leniency with him because he hasn’t been up here playing shortstop on an everyday basis yet.” For the time being, the Twins will continue to roll with Santana at shortstop -- at least until either he cannot be trusted in the field or his bat never recovers from the early season slump. That being said, Ryan thinks Santana will come around and begin to impress with his raw tools. “He should make some of those plays or all of those plays that are routine, of course, but he’s capable of making some of those fantastic plays too.”
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The Minnesota Twins showed in their first homestand of the year that they are capable of winning, finishing the week 4-2 against Kansas City and Cleveland. On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss the their observations from the Home Opener, the week in review and other topics. Listen up.Other topics include Tinder’s endgame, Varsity Blues Fan Fiction, and hockey. Parker supplies some audio showing just how amazing Sid Hartman is during press conferences. Dan provides the teams in the TCMABL with some bulletin board material. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #52: ONE-YEAR ANNIVESARY Click here to view the article
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Other topics include Tinder’s endgame, Varsity Blues Fan Fiction, and hockey. Parker supplies some audio showing just how amazing Sid Hartman is during press conferences. Dan provides the teams in the TCMABL with some bulletin board material. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #52: ONE-YEAR ANNIVESARY
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"No offense to Parker but this is why we have a pitching coach and hitting coach at each level." Offense taken.
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Using Arcia's minor league track record as a gauge for future production is a bit misleading. When he was spending full seasons in the minors, he used a different approach that allowed him to use the entire field more but with less power potential. Brunansky said he did not want to change him from what he is now back to where he was but he wants to refine the approach so that he can have the power potential with a higher batting average. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/twins-trying-to-make-oswaldo-arcia-a-complete-hitter-r3045 http://i.imgur.com/AoaBdR0.gif http://i.imgur.com/4IOzAsG.gif
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And when the media and coaching staff are in the clubhouse the average age gets much older too. Way too literal of an interpretation of that line. But I understand your overall point -- the offense is young that the league's average but certainly not the youngest. Three players under the age of 25 are expected to play key roles in the lineup this year and there should be more up at some point before the end of the season.
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Tom Brunansky was recently asked what he saw as the biggest difference between handling veteran hitters and young hitters. “The young hitters put the horse before the carriage,” Brunansky said about the desire for hits. “The young hitters, they see success as the result. The veteran hitter knows that the result is something we can't control and it is about the process. So that's where we step in and let them know that it is process, process, process. We have to change that mindset.” With a clubhouse filled with hitters like Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia -- all under the age of 25 and all expected to play key roles in the offense -- Brunansky will be busy spreading that message.Of course the Twins have players who are not far removed from being where those hitters are now and have come out on the other side in good shape. Third baseman Trevor Plouffe discovered that trying to perform consistently at the major league level was a daunting task as an inexperienced hitter. After scuffling through several stretches of feeling overmatched, Plouffe would piece together a handful of at bats that would feed his confidence. It would be a fleeting feeling as opponents would introduce a new wrinkle that would send him back to the cages searching for answers. “You have to show you can hit the four-spot fastball,” Plouffe said. “Once you do that, then teams start to make adjustments on you. That’s how this game works. As a hitter, you have to make adjustments to counteract those.” The adjustments came easier after multiple seasons with steady playing time. The three-year stretch from 2012 through 2014 provided him with 1,500 plate appearances in which to learn what adjustments he needed to make. Plouffe’s results in that span showed an uptick in power and patience and a slight reduction in walks. Plouffe did not just ground to second or flare one to right, he was able to do more damage last year going the other way than he had in previous seasons. He collected 13 doubles when driving the ball to the opposite field. That, he said, was the result of knowing how pitchers were approaching him. “I know for me they like to show me [fastball] in and then go soft away,” Plouffe explained. “In those big situations where there’s runners on base, last year Bruno and I talked about using that whole field, just take what they give. When you get up there you are going to want to get those runs in no matter what, any way you can. If that means I gotta hit a groundball to second base or I gotta fly one out to right, that’s what I've got to do. Once I got the hang of that it was ‘alright, let’s drive some balls over there’. I think that makes you a more complete hitter.” On the right side of the infield, teammate Brian Dozier experienced a similar learning curve in the majors. His first season with the Twins was an exercise in weak contact and an overeagerness that led to the count often being in the pitcher’s favor. Dozier leaned on the teachings of Brunansky as well as the guys in the clubhouse that had seen it all. “One of the big things, especially coming up, a lot of different guys -- Morneau, Willingham and those guys -- that they could do a lot of good things hitting a fastball in this league,” Dozier said. “Always hunt the fastball.” Dozier, an avid hunter off the field of all types of game, has been quite the marksman with the bat on the field. Over the past two seasons he has compiled a .509 slugging percentage while smacking 32 of his 41 home runs versus the heat. In addition to repeated hard hit balls, Dozier also has increased his zone awareness and getting deeper into the count and drawing more walks as of late. “It might be geared towards pitchers tipping pitches or just knowing what’s coming,” Dozier said about his ability to ambush his opponent at the plate. “That’s another thing: a feel for the game. Knowing what the pitcher is trying do to you. Is he trying to elevate? Is he trying to come inside? Once you figure that out, it makes it a lot easier.” Plouffe and Dozier were once overmatched kids trying to maintain at the majors. Now the lineup is filled with similarly promising talent that is striving for consistency. Oswaldo Arcia is one such talent who has shown flashes of light-tower power interspersed in periods of prolonged droughts. It is early in the 2015 season but the Twins left fielder is leading the league in striking out and faking like he is going to break his bat over his knee. But Brunansky believes the outfielder has made significant improvements to his approach and mechanics that will allow him to avoid those extended pitfalls. “Cleaner. Cleaner is a good word,” Brunansky said of the left-handed power hitter’s current swing. “Any young hitter that comes up and has the ability to be here, there's always kind of movement that goes on that they're going to have to clean up a little bit once they get used to the league and the pace of the league and the league shows them as hitters what they need to do. That's where we are at right now.” When he first arrived barely old enough to enjoy an adult beverage, Arcia displayed impressive power promise. In 2013, he launched 14 home runs including four to the opposite field. It was difficult to not envision a world in which a mature Arcia could mash two or three times that number over a full season. Of course, it didn’t take long for opponents to begin to use his aggressiveness against him. “The first time he came up he was swinging at everything and we talked and worked on cleaning up the zone,” said Brunansky. “I didn't even talk mechanics to him. It was more about pitch awareness. That helped, he did better. And once he got that under control then we went to the next part. We went to the hands that got too low and never got back up in the zone which helped promote the uppercut so now we're trying to clean the bat path.” Dropping his hands played a key role in how teams began to adjust to Arcia. As it became increasingly apparent that the Venezuelan could not handle pitches up in the zone, that became the target for pitchers to exploit. In his first season, Arcia did a lot of his damage in hitter’s counts. Now when pitchers fell behind, they would just go upstairs and avoid his powerful swing. Brunansky said that he did not want to change Arcia’s swing to counter the attack but rather instill the notion that he should simply lay off those pitches. As appetizing as a high fastball looks coming in, Arcia’s game is down in the zone. To correct Brunansky would occasionally flip him a high pitch in their front toss drills. If Arcia chased, the Twins’ hitting coach would remind him that that is not his real zone. Arcia’s ability to perform against left-handed pitching was another deteriorating skill set that needed attention. After hitting a serviceable .254 against the sinister in 2013, he turned in a .198 batting line last year. Brunansky said the issue is pitch awareness. Pitch awareness and the point of contact. “I think his bat path that we see against the left side it is kind of long and he pulls off just because he thinks he's going to hit the ball out here,” Brunansky said while gesturing to an imaginary location well out in front of himself. “And by the time the ball and bat should meet he's long gone.” For a solution, this spring, Brunansky had Arcia do tee work and toss drills while using a fungo bat. The longer and end-loaded bat helped create a better feel for the barrel path for Arcia which Brunansky said he sees as much improved. One of the more frustrating examples of a player unable to break through on the field has been the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks. Over the last few years Brunansky said the pair would drill endlessly during spring training or during practice on things that they felt needed to be fixed. In those conditions, Hicks would appear strong and ready. Once in the game, he would move back into bad habits that they spent so many man-hours to correct. “The first couple years it was inconsistent,” Brunansky said about Hicks’ swing. “He couldn't find and then he'd find it and lose it and then he'd get frustrated. I think he's more mature and he's got an idea both right-handed and left-handed what his swing feels like and what it should feel like -- which should help make it repeatable. Which he has been in the cage. It's just the consistency in the game.” Brunansky believes that they may have finally found something that could give Hicks sustained success: the leg kick. “Hicksy moved his head a lot,” said Brunansky. “What's going to stop your head movement is a strong base. What's a strong base is your legs and core. So you have to get that under control to keep everything strong here which will stop your head from movement.” In a small sample size at Rochester, Hicks has collected six hits so far this year, four of which went for extra bases. It is still too early to tell if the improved swing is paying off for Hicks but the takeaway for Brunansky is that those types of returns help a hitter trust the process and believe in themselves. It may sound cliche but Brunansky and the Twins emphasize trusting the process with their young hitters. And Brunansky will be busy spreading that message. Beyond Arcia and Hicks, the lineup features rookie Kennys Vargas and Danny Santana in his sophomore season. Behind them, Josmil Pinto, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. They will come up, fail at some point and that is when it is time to go to work. As Brunansky said, process, process, process. Click here to view the article
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Of course the Twins have players who are not far removed from being where those hitters are now and have come out on the other side in good shape. Third baseman Trevor Plouffe discovered that trying to perform consistently at the major league level was a daunting task as an inexperienced hitter. After scuffling through several stretches of feeling overmatched, Plouffe would piece together a handful of at bats that would feed his confidence. It would be a fleeting feeling as opponents would introduce a new wrinkle that would send him back to the cages searching for answers. “You have to show you can hit the four-spot fastball,” Plouffe said. “Once you do that, then teams start to make adjustments on you. That’s how this game works. As a hitter, you have to make adjustments to counteract those.” The adjustments came easier after multiple seasons with steady playing time. The three-year stretch from 2012 through 2014 provided him with 1,500 plate appearances in which to learn what adjustments he needed to make. Plouffe’s results in that span showed an uptick in power and patience and a slight reduction in walks. Plouffe did not just ground to second or flare one to right, he was able to do more damage last year going the other way than he had in previous seasons. He collected 13 doubles when driving the ball to the opposite field. That, he said, was the result of knowing how pitchers were approaching him. “I know for me they like to show me [fastball] in and then go soft away,” Plouffe explained. “In those big situations where there’s runners on base, last year Bruno and I talked about using that whole field, just take what they give. When you get up there you are going to want to get those runs in no matter what, any way you can. If that means I gotta hit a groundball to second base or I gotta fly one out to right, that’s what I've got to do. Once I got the hang of that it was ‘alright, let’s drive some balls over there’. I think that makes you a more complete hitter.” On the right side of the infield, teammate Brian Dozier experienced a similar learning curve in the majors. His first season with the Twins was an exercise in weak contact and an overeagerness that led to the count often being in the pitcher’s favor. Dozier leaned on the teachings of Brunansky as well as the guys in the clubhouse that had seen it all. “One of the big things, especially coming up, a lot of different guys -- Morneau, Willingham and those guys -- that they could do a lot of good things hitting a fastball in this league,” Dozier said. “Always hunt the fastball.” Dozier, an avid hunter off the field of all types of game, has been quite the marksman with the bat on the field. Over the past two seasons he has compiled a .509 slugging percentage while smacking 32 of his 41 home runs versus the heat. In addition to repeated hard hit balls, Dozier also has increased his zone awareness and getting deeper into the count and drawing more walks as of late. “It might be geared towards pitchers tipping pitches or just knowing what’s coming,” Dozier said about his ability to ambush his opponent at the plate. “That’s another thing: a feel for the game. Knowing what the pitcher is trying do to you. Is he trying to elevate? Is he trying to come inside? Once you figure that out, it makes it a lot easier.” Plouffe and Dozier were once overmatched kids trying to maintain at the majors. Now the lineup is filled with similarly promising talent that is striving for consistency. Oswaldo Arcia is one such talent who has shown flashes of light-tower power interspersed in periods of prolonged droughts. It is early in the 2015 season but the Twins left fielder is leading the league in striking out and faking like he is going to break his bat over his knee. But Brunansky believes the outfielder has made significant improvements to his approach and mechanics that will allow him to avoid those extended pitfalls. “Cleaner. Cleaner is a good word,” Brunansky said of the left-handed power hitter’s current swing. “Any young hitter that comes up and has the ability to be here, there's always kind of movement that goes on that they're going to have to clean up a little bit once they get used to the league and the pace of the league and the league shows them as hitters what they need to do. That's where we are at right now.” When he first arrived barely old enough to enjoy an adult beverage, Arcia displayed impressive power promise. In 2013, he launched 14 home runs including four to the opposite field. It was difficult to not envision a world in which a mature Arcia could mash two or three times that number over a full season. Of course, it didn’t take long for opponents to begin to use his aggressiveness against him. “The first time he came up he was swinging at everything and we talked and worked on cleaning up the zone,” said Brunansky. “I didn't even talk mechanics to him. It was more about pitch awareness. That helped, he did better. And once he got that under control then we went to the next part. We went to the hands that got too low and never got back up in the zone which helped promote the uppercut so now we're trying to clean the bat path.” Dropping his hands played a key role in how teams began to adjust to Arcia. As it became increasingly apparent that the Venezuelan could not handle pitches up in the zone, that became the target for pitchers to exploit. In his first season, Arcia did a lot of his damage in hitter’s counts. Now when pitchers fell behind, they would just go upstairs and avoid his powerful swing. Brunansky said that he did not want to change Arcia’s swing to counter the attack but rather instill the notion that he should simply lay off those pitches. As appetizing as a high fastball looks coming in, Arcia’s game is down in the zone. To correct Brunansky would occasionally flip him a high pitch in their front toss drills. If Arcia chased, the Twins’ hitting coach would remind him that that is not his real zone. Arcia’s ability to perform against left-handed pitching was another deteriorating skill set that needed attention. After hitting a serviceable .254 against the sinister in 2013, he turned in a .198 batting line last year. Brunansky said the issue is pitch awareness. Pitch awareness and the point of contact. “I think his bat path that we see against the left side it is kind of long and he pulls off just because he thinks he's going to hit the ball out here,” Brunansky said while gesturing to an imaginary location well out in front of himself. “And by the time the ball and bat should meet he's long gone.” For a solution, this spring, Brunansky had Arcia do tee work and toss drills while using a fungo bat. The longer and end-loaded bat helped create a better feel for the barrel path for Arcia which Brunansky said he sees as much improved. One of the more frustrating examples of a player unable to break through on the field has been the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks. Over the last few years Brunansky said the pair would drill endlessly during spring training or during practice on things that they felt needed to be fixed. In those conditions, Hicks would appear strong and ready. Once in the game, he would move back into bad habits that they spent so many man-hours to correct. “The first couple years it was inconsistent,” Brunansky said about Hicks’ swing. “He couldn't find and then he'd find it and lose it and then he'd get frustrated. I think he's more mature and he's got an idea both right-handed and left-handed what his swing feels like and what it should feel like -- which should help make it repeatable. Which he has been in the cage. It's just the consistency in the game.” Brunansky believes that they may have finally found something that could give Hicks sustained success: the leg kick. “Hicksy moved his head a lot,” said Brunansky. “What's going to stop your head movement is a strong base. What's a strong base is your legs and core. So you have to get that under control to keep everything strong here which will stop your head from movement.” In a small sample size at Rochester, Hicks has collected six hits so far this year, four of which went for extra bases. It is still too early to tell if the improved swing is paying off for Hicks but the takeaway for Brunansky is that those types of returns help a hitter trust the process and believe in themselves. It may sound cliche but Brunansky and the Twins emphasize trusting the process with their young hitters. And Brunansky will be busy spreading that message. Beyond Arcia and Hicks, the lineup features rookie Kennys Vargas and Danny Santana in his sophomore season. Behind them, Josmil Pinto, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. They will come up, fail at some point and that is when it is time to go to work. As Brunansky said, process, process, process.
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A 1-5 road trip through Detroit and Chicago have put the Twins firmly in the basement of the AL Central. On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss what has gone wrong, how to fix it and other observation’s from the first six games. Listen up.They also answer your Twitter questions, get envious of the Minnesota Wild and other things. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #51: OPENING WEEK IN REVIEW Click here to view the article
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Article: Twins Drop Ball, Home Opener
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He definitely pitched well. He attacked the strike zone and managed to get some big strikeouts. May got shorted a bit by his defense. He needed better. Molitor was right that he was getting hit a bit in the sixth but probably doesn't have the pitch count he did at that point if more plays were made behind him earlier in the game.- 24 replies
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