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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Love this analysis. It’s nice to see the data proving what you think your eyes are telling your brain. A couple of observations: 1. Love to see improvement in OPS RISP. But as the saying goes shouldn’t some key Twins players should learn to walk before they even try to run? There should be a new stat: MRO - Moving the Runner Over (with less than two outs). We scored an incredibly important run last night because Polanco moved the runner on second over to third on a groundout behind the runner followed by Arraez’s bleeder through a drawn in infield. That, my friends, is called BASEBALL. Buxton’s and Correa’s MROs are probably about 0.100 each. It’s actually fairly pathetic. Forget OPS - this team could improve dramatically just by raising their MRO. 2. Think about the data above. Now think about this: Correa, Kepler, Sano, and, yes, even Buxton - $67MM.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Observations from last night’s game: 1. Correa will not opt out unless he takes something along a 5 yr $100MM deal. Nobody is paying him $30MM+ on any sort of a mid-long term deal. Up four times last night with at least one runner on (three times with no outs!) and couldn’t even move the runner over except once with a weak grounder off Kimbrel’s foot. It was pathetic. 2. First it was the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, where we didn’t have the horses. Now it’s the position players. The lineup card is brutal to look at each night now and yet we sit bona fide big leaguers (Arraez and Urshela on back to back nights). 3. We want to beat the big market teams? We have to play excellent, flawless FUNDAMENTAL baseball. That means no errors, dumb base running mistakes, grooving 0-2 pitches, throwing to the wrong base, managerial missteps (almost nightly), etc. This is how we’ve won in the past under TK. Sorry, touching the third rail here, but good fundamentals starts at the top. We have NEVER played good fundamental baseball under Rocco.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    No. The question will be managing the pipeline given the understanding and reality that the current list of projected starters is still not good enough and will require augmenting So, when unfortunately, Correa opts out, and, along with Sano and Sanchez departing, an additional reliable #1 or #2 starter would be a good use of some of the cash (with enough left over for a really good platooning catcher and a couple of solid BP arms. Some of our supposed “starter” depth could be used in the pen (can you imagine a pen of Lopez, Duran, Fulmer, Jax, plus another great FA and two of our excess starters) or break glass in the case of injury role. Going into ‘23 ideally we would have a starting corp of: FA, Mahle, Gray, Ryan, and Maeda with Winder, Ober and others ready to fill in with the inevitable injuries and poor performance. With the pen described above, that staff would be enviable.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    I guess we stick with the analytics….. I fully understand and respect your rationale and I see the reasoning. Arraez can theoretically play four positions: 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH. Miranda, Polanco, Urshela, Buxton and Arraez are your five players for those four spots. Miranda plays vs. a lefty. Check. Polanco plays for sure as a switch hitter. Check. So we are down to Urshela, Arraez and Buxton. Urshela is probably a better 3B than Arraez and Miranda. So the best defensive lineup, on the margin, is Urshela at 3B and Miranda at 1B, beating out the next best choice of Miranda at 3B and Arraez at 1B. Plus, Urshela has a higher OPS vs lefties. Urshela starts. Check, And Buxton has to be the DH, right? Can’t leave him on the bench. Check. Heck, maybe the next five games are scheduled against right handed starters - so best rest Luis for use the rest of the week. Check, Check. All that makes tremendous sense. Yet, I still disagree. There is no one on the Twins that I’d rather have hitting 4-5 times a game or with a runner on base (in scoring position or not), regardless of the lefty/righty matchup, than Arraez. Analytics, shmalytics. Arraez in the lineup with his bat and energy simply gives us a better chance. That’s what the eyes and gut may suggest. But the arguments against that are good and understandable. The data and AI say sit Arraez. It’s an analytics world.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Missed the game - 3rd of the year. Was Arraez hurt last night? If not, I’m wondering in what universe is Arraez batting against a left handed pitcher still not better than sending up any of our right handed batters other than maybe Miranda? That’s right, I’m including our two “superstars” in that comparison. Are we playing to win or are we still sticking with the “analytics”? Sure, we were thoroughly outclassed so it might not have mattered; however, doesn’t his bat in the lineup regardless if a lefty is starting still give us a better chance to win? Please disregard this comment if Luis was injured.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Aaron Sanchez - don’t sleep on him. I’m thinking he is going to play a role for this team down the stretch possibly as both a spot starter and in the pen. Today I’d love it if he were the first off the bench once Archer is pulled after 3 or 4,
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Q. How do you know the Twins won’t score a run in an inning? A. They get a lead-off double. LOL
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Rec this - I agree 100%.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Actually, it might be better for us if he opts out. Here’s the thinking. We save $35MM. With Sanchez and Sano gone, we would have a total of about $50MM extra to spend. What does that get us? Let’s say a solid starter plus three relievers and a decent back up catcher. The roster in ‘23 might look something like this: OF: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, and Celestino (Wallner and Martin on deck) IF: Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Palacios, Miranda, Urshela, and Lewis (2nd half). Catcher: Jeffers, FA SP: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and FA (SWR, Winder and Ober on deck for injuries) RP: López, Duran, Jax, Megill (yes, I still have hopes for him), Fulmer (resigned as a FA), two more FAs, plus one player within the organization. That’s a pretty darn good lineup led by a really good starting staff, a solid relief corps, and good overall depth. So, if Correa does opt out, things will still be ok and possibly better.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Based on his play this year, the odds of him securing a truly attractive long term deal - 7-10 years at $30MM + - have diminished. So what are his logical choices? A. Stay with the Twins for $35MM and look to improve upon his performance so to get a better long term deal in ‘24. B. Opt out and get something around 5 years at $30MM. C. Twins add an extra year at $35MM and give him another opt out option after ‘24. I think the Twins maybe do C. but I don’t see them offering B. Having said that, $35MM buys A LOT of relief pitching and we still have Palacios and Lewis manning SS with Miller and Lee on deck. It very well could could just come down to Correas’s choice and the Twins accept it either way.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Keep an eye on Sanchez. He may become a very interesting option for us in the pen as the year finishes up.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    I feel bad for Bundy - he gets the Pagan, Megill, Sands, Thielbar relief squad rotation tonight. Like Gray had two nights ago (except, he had Duffy, of course). Basically, Bundy has very little chance of a getting the win tonight unless he miraculously pitches into at least the 8th and the Twins are up at least 5 runs when he departs. Poor guy - must be rough to be a starting pitcher knowing that there is very little chance to get a win because your manager will yank you no matter what before the third time through the order and your relief corps is very likely not up to the task.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    At least we were playing a team that played more little league baseball than us for a change. Your point about our fundamentals, or lack thereof, is spot on. The primary responsibility for that lies with the coaching staff. It is unlikely we will ever seriously contend unless our fundamentals are better than the teams that have bigger budgets.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Pagan, Megill, and Duffy. 3IP, 9R, 11h, 1W Well, that hasn’t changed…
  15. Nashvilletwin
    The FO did a great job solving for the holes that were apparent for quite some time: namely relief pitching and a quality starter, They did their research on both sides of the trade market prioritising whom they wanted and whom they were willing to deal. Yesterday’s win was a textbook example of how a relief corp should operate. It just hasn’t felt we’ve had that all year. Hopefully, we now have some defined roles in the pen with Jax in early high leverage relief, Fulmer and Duran in the set up roles depending on matchups, and López closing. Resign Fulmer and a solid relief corp is on hand for at least a couple of years. That’s been our biggest hole and it was solved. The Mahle deal is saved by the extra year of control. Outside of injury risk, he is a solid upgrade to Archer and Bundy giving us three solid starters joining Ryan and Gray. Assuming we get to playoff baseball, that’s a good starting point to be able to compete (especially when coupled with the new core in the pen). The cost definitely hurt a bit, but none of the players given up were likely to contribute in ‘23 and maybe even ‘24 - both years being projected open window years. Importantly, the core of our young, controllable, and relatively cheap position players were not touched. Drafting Lee and Miller, along with Lewis, takes the sting off of losing Steer (let’s be grateful he played so well this year driving up his value). CES is a masher - and will have to continue to be as a likely DH in the bigs. Again, assuming health, would we rather have Miranda, Kiriloff or Larnach? Yes. Re filling position player holes, the FO had enough time to fill Jeffers’ spot, especially given the backup nature of the need. The injuries to Kepler and Kiriloff were a bit late in the game, and hopefully, transitory enough that quickly developing a plan and spending more capital to fill the bigger (i.e more expensive) need those injuries created just probably didn’t make sense. Overall, the FO gets an A for their reactive actions in filling the biggest holes and positioning the team for a bit of a run this year as well as building/not damaging the future for the next couple of years. However, they don’t get as much commendation for their actions in the off season creating the pitching staff leading to the needs. One final thought - given his solid, but not spectacular, performance this season to-date, Correa might just stick around next year for $35MM and a team better poised to compete. Just wondering….
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Rec. this! Exactly how I felt today. Wow.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Well, if everyone is healthy and hitting at or near their best, I don’t have Urshela or Sanchez in my starting eight position players or at DH. I guess you could argue about Urshela vs. Larnach for the final position player start.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Essentially missing five of our nine starting position players (including DH): Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach and Jeffers. That list includes our entire starting outfield folks. Are Arraez, Correa, Polanco and Miranda - plus our second stringers at 3B (Urshela) and catcher (Sanchez) - enough to carry this team to a playoff win even with the pitching additions today? It’s a tall order. Especially if we can’t field weak ground balls to the first baseman or sustain developing rallies. After all, even the best pitching could use a clean defensive game and a little better consistent production at the plate. Lets go get a win tomorrow,
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Nice win - the team showed lots of heart to keep at it to produce a W. The bottom of the 9th though was classic Twins lack of fundamentals baseball. 1st and 2nd with no outs is followed by a K on three failed bunt attempts, a long fly that would’ve won the game if the bunt had been successful, and Gordon getting picked off 3rd on ball four which would have loaded the bases for baseball’s best hitter. Hard to make that up. Oh well, let’s get ‘em again today!
  20. Nashvilletwin
    A lot of good, thoughtful comments on this thread. Personally, I’d hate to see us move Miranda, Arraez, Kiriloff, Jeffers or Larnach. We shouldn’t sacrifice any of them for the mistakes the FO made re the pitching staff this year. They, along with Lewis and Steer, and possibly Wallner, should be the core solid major leaguers who are controllable and cheap. With Buxton and, hopefully Correa, that would make nine solid position players with only two costing essentially above league mandated/arbitration minimums (based on service year). Celestino and Gordon plus Palacio are cheap utility players. If Correa leaves, we still have Palacio and Lewis (and Miller and Lee) and save a boatload of cash to apply to the mound. Correa alone is probably worth 3-5 solid RPs to augment Duran and Jax. Relief pitching is the key. A shut down pen is the most important need. Next year with Maeda back, a healthy Ober and Winder, plus Ryan and Gray we should hav a solid SP core. So, if we moved Correa, well so be it. But I would understand if he, Kepler, Urshela, Sano, Sanchez (unlikely now), and, even, Polanco, we’re traded.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Nice bounce back win! Now let’s take the series tomorrow.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Your points are well taken. Going into this season, there was much hope that we had some developing depth among our prospect starters. Outside of Ryan, has that really occurred? Catching is an issue. It’s too bad Jeffers got hurt as his bat was just coming around. I think he’s a solid major league catcher. Assuming we can’t get Correa to stay, the Lewis injury really hurt. He’s a special young man. Assuming he returns and can perform as he was, I’m quite content with an infield of Arraez/Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis and Miranda with those five essentially playing everyday in some capacity (including DH, but we have to slot in Buxton as DH as well). Btw, outside of Polanco - who is on a very attractive contract - all of those players are cheap and tied up for a while. Buxton, Larnach, possibly Kepler, and/or some combo of Martin, Wallner and Celestino in the outfield are solid enough. Gordon and Steer are our utility players. Buxton (notwithstanding Kepler if we keep him but his salary may be better utilised applied to pitching), is the only one of that group who costs money. So plenty of money to throw at building/rounding out our starting staff, rebuilding our relief core around Duran and Jax, and adding catching depth. Just my opinion, but I like our core of controllable youngsters and financial flexibility over the next several years. That is why I’m a seller of anyone not likely to contribute and/or is expensive if we can add to this core and build our staff. This would sadly include Correa if we can’t lock him up (which I’d love to see happen). One other thing though - Rocco’s performance needs to be seriously evaluated. I’m not convinced he’s the right manager (there, I touched the third rail).
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Did we all see what the M’s gave up for Castillo? We’d have to completely gut our prospect list to get to that level - and we need 3-4 Castillo types to realistically have any chance to contend. The data points are there. It’s ok to take a step back and reevaluate where this team truly stands with a clear mind and open eyes. Sure - we are clinging to a rapidly evaporating division lead. But we are obviously more than one or two players away. Our window should be more open next year and then the following year than it is now. Any moves we make should be to enhance that realisation, not jeopardise it. Watching last night’s game, I was dumbfounded and saddened to see Rocco leave our top young starter in to give up 10 runs. After Machado it was perfectly clear to everyone it was not Ryan’s night. Rocco leaves him in to get battered for four more runs to get one more out. That was inexcusable. I hope Ryan can either forget or learn from that. Psyche’s in young pitchers can be tricky. Looking for a strong rebound game today!
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Your point is a good one, but it’s a tough call. After all, we still lead the division. But there are enough data points now to suggest that your supposition is accurate. Re trades, I’d focus on moving anyone who is not going to be part of a ‘23-‘25 window. Move as much salary as possible. Keep anyone, big leaguer or prospect, who is viewed as more than likely to be part of that window. Anyone else - move if possible. The downside is we might not get much of anything in return (I mean, can we get anything for Sanchez, Urshela, Kepler, Sano or even Correa other than some salary relief?). Therefore, maybe we just end up playing it out with whom we have. I actually think that is where we could end up - we won’t do much at the deadline because we don’t want to part with any “muscle” (just too many holes to fill to make this a good risk/reward choice) and the “fat” won’t get us anything in return.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. And let’s not forget the two walks. That’s inexcusable. But we shouldn’t let Duran off the hook either. He had a walk fest going in the 8th and came within a cross up of walking in the go ahead run (given how things are going, I’m surprised that pitch didn’t go the backstop lol). Really just more of the same mental mistakes that we’ve come to expect - yesterday it was relievers walking multiple batters late in the game and a base running error that likely cost us at least one crucial run. It’s like little league out there sometimes. But sadly getting to be so typical.
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