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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Apologies upfront if this post may be TLDR for many. Nick, this a well written post that describes in great detail the enormous hurdles that injuries put in front of this team. Thank you. Your post raises two questions for me. The first, were these enormous hurdles in fact insurmountable? The second, what does this mean in terms of the future leadership of the team? There are many, and it appears you are in this camp, that would answer yes to the first. There are many other TDers, perhaps the minority, who are tremendously sympathetic with the argument, but cannot out of hand dismiss the managerial, player and front office blunders that certainly contributed to many victories being left on the table. But, IMHO, the question is moot from a “blame” standpoint; we are where we are and what matters is where we go from here. The Twins are a well-positioned mid market organization. We have excellent owners, facilities, farm system, and tradition. We have access to capital, albeit not unlimited, to acquire the occasional high priced FA player. We have a tremendous roster of young, up-and-coming players. So, specifically, what does it take for a mid market organization such as ours to consistently and realistically compete with the big market teams and the smart/shrewd/well-run small-mid market teams for the Pennant. Here are a few thoughts re the criteria: 1. Consistent development of big leaguers through the system. 2. FO excellence in trades, FA acquisitions, and player retention. 3, Strong fundamental baseball from players and coaches in all aspects of the game. 4. Maximizing the potential of the players who make it to the Show. 5. Health - keeping the players on the field (and it’s all not just luck). 6. Team culture of confidence, camaraderie, accountability and commitment. The small-mid market teams that do these things well will be the ones competing for championships against the larger market clubs. If you don’t do these things well, teams like the Twins will be destined for mediocrity. So to address the second question, perhaps it makes sense to open-mindedly evaluate how our FO and coaching staff have performed, and realistically could be expected to perform, in these areas. Perhaps other than the first, one could argue that the Twins owners should seek substantive improvement from existing or new leadership if these are truly criteria for success.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    You nailed it. It’s one thing to have the players, it’s another to get them to maximise their potential. Hopefully, we find the right leadership and system to make that a reality.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Looking ahead to ‘24, could our core starting four infielders be Miranda, Lewis, Lee and Arraez? If so, who plays what position? Let’s assume Lewis is at SS. Could Lee play 2B with Miranda at 3B and Arraez at 1B? Or is Lee at 3B, Arraez at 2B, and Miranda at 1B. Regardless, that’s a strong (and pretty cheap) starting core infield. (Just for kicks, Larnach, Buxton and Kiriloff in the outfield. Jeffers at C. Gordon, Wallner, Isola and maybe Martin as core backups. Not too shabby. Lots of money left over for FA pitching and whatever hole we need to fill, i.e. catcher, etc.).
  4. Nashvilletwin
    The Pohlads are smart people. You don’t get to where they are by being too hasty in your actions or by buying “bad luck” as an excuse. Like any successful business leaders, they will provide opportunity, but also demand accountability. Despite the late season swoon (actually, the inevitable has been pretty obvious since June), the Twins are well positioned with both players and available salary space to be much better next year. However, as has been pointed out before, to truly be a contender as a mid market team, the team will need to stay healthy, play consistently excellent fundamental baseball, and make the right calls on free agency and trades. The sad fact facing the Pohlads is that the current FO and coaching staff have not demonstrated an ability to maximise the team’s potential in these areas of demonstrable underperformance. So, do we think the 2023 Twins under current mgmt/leadership can improve enough in these areas to make a run for a Pennant? What evidence would indicate that possibility is strong, or even exists? The Pohlads will decide. They are smart people.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    …..too bad we aren’t built for April through September.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    …..and we wonder why we haven’t won a playoff game in forever….
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Perhaps the best stat posted all year to demonstrate why this team really is not as good as we all hoped/thought they were. You want to actually win the Pennant, let alone the World Series? Well, you’d better figure out how to beat the best teams more consistently. Sure, the power 5 are comprised mostly of the biggest spenders, but we are being outperformed by every single team. This destroys the old, lame excuse “well, we don’t spend enough and those teams have an unfair advantage because they have bigger markets and better owners”. Nope - our pathetic record against the best teams is about leadership, culture, confidence, and getting the most out of your players, Our players are plenty good enough to be much more competitive against these teams. I sure hope the Pohlads read the TD.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    We all know the old saying: “You pay your money and you take your chance”. But this pattern goes beyond “bad luck”. Maybe we somewhat knew what we were getting with Paddack. Maeda produced for a while - we’ll see if and how he comes back. But as trade deadline deals, the Mahle and Dyson trades were beyond terrible. So sorry, but not all of us believe in “bad luck”, particularly when it happens over and over. Our owners are savvy people and won’t/shouldn’t fall for the BS excuse of “bad luck” if that is what the FO is offering up. Someone has to be accountable. BTW, it looks like zero wins vs. the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees over the last three series with them this past month or so. Do we blame that on “bad luck” and all the injuries as well? Bottom line: If you believe in “bad luck”, your organization will be mired in mediocrity in perpetuity. It doesn’t matter if it’s the Twins, your business, hell, even your love life. If want your “luck” to change, you do something about it. Period. The Pohlads didn’t just fall off a turnip truck - they understand that.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Wallner should be able to provide as much value right now vis-a-vis Kepler. At least he could play in the field even if he k’d looking each time up.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Or Mahle may never be any good again. Who knows? The point is that based on current expected value, we have lost this trade. It can’t be argued otherwise. Yes, I agree - we traded for a pitcher to help us now and next year. But he can’t help us now and his expected value next year has decreased substantially. Meanwhile, the assets sent are performing at or above expected levels at the time of the trade, At this point, based on expected returns, we have lost this trade, potentially big time. I hope it turns out differently. But the bigger picture is the pattern of our FO getting fleeced for injured arms. Fool me once, shame on you; twice shame on me; three times is an absolute joke.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Re the jury, it’s back. Sure, he returns next year (but I’ll take the under on Mahle next season as well - hope I’m wrong). But, the bigger point is that Mahle was a trade deadline acquisition in order to help this year. That is why we gave up so many assets for him. If we wanted to trade for him in the off-season, the price would have been much lower (especially now that he’s shut down with unclear expectations for the future). The trade was a disaster. Yes, we got fleeced. Again. For the third time. The egg on the face of our vaunted FO is getting hard to wash off. Lopez will be part of the pen next year, but expectations should be tempered - expect an every other day 6-7th inning type role behind Duran, Jax, Thielbar and the two other relievers we’d better add in the off-season. Fulmer may or may not be resigned - it’s beginning to look less likely.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Nice win today, but I’m having a hard time getting over how badly we have been fleeced on the Mahle, Paddock, and Dyson trades. It’s crazy how bad our FO did on those. I can’t believe the Pohlads fall for the bs excuses the FO must be offering up - the owners should be livid.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Fleeced again. What is that - 3 times now in the past couple of years? To all of us who say “Hey, we have him next year though”, I’ll take the under next year too. Honestly, how can anyone defend these trades? We spend years developing young talent, then ship it off in exchange for damaged arms. It’s embarrassing, pathetic, and inexcusable. Who is accountable? Anyone? First time, you get the “hey it happens” excuse. Second time, “guys, seriously now, bad luck or not, we need to be more careful”. Third time, hell, they’ll probably fire an intern.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    This includes 4 games against Cleveland with a WE% of 89% and above and 6 games overall. Geez.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Nice night down on the farm for some of our top prospects, et al. Don’t look now, but some of them could be major leaguers next year.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Gordon’s progress is an incredibly important development for the Twins - not only this season as we enter the stretch run with lots of injuries, but also next season as we look to continue to build our roster cost effectively. The silver lining of our injuries (particularly Larnach, Kiriloff and Buxton) has been the emergence of Gordon. Without those injuries, we might never have known what we have in Gordon - which is an everyday starting calibre position player. Gordon now provides great flexibility in terms of roster construction and budget management. In particular, if we are looking to reposition a few dollars into the pen or a starter, Gordon’s emergence allows the FO to have frank discussions about Urshela and Kepler if desired.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    All great comments on this thread. Bottom line: Bundy has been at least satisfactory in his role and at his cost. He’s done his job. Well done. However, as a 4-5 inning guy, he’s not worth his option cost next year. Ideally, we’d find a better option at #5 offering similar results but with greater length and lower cost. We shall see how the other options develop. If somehow he ended up as our #5 at $5-6MM, and repeated his performance this year, well, things could be a lot worse. In fact, that would be pretty darn good. Pagan is gone. Period.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Aaron Sanchez has filled in admirably and was a solid mid year addition by the FO. He could still play a meaningful role down the stretch and may be a better bet in a must win start than Archer. BTW, feel free to add a couple of runs to any starter’s ERA with that home plate ump yesterday. Talk about a tight strike zone - it looked like you basically had to throw it in a thimble to get a called strike. Tough to get the start when that ump is behind the plate.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Best all around game in a long time, maybe all year. Played like pros tonight in all facets of the game. Could also have been Correa’s best game as well. Love to see more of that going forward.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    And what did we do with those division wins……
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Yawn - not sure I really care either way. The intrigue is fun to talk about, but, in reality, wake me when he decides. If he opts in, super - he’s a pretty darn good player and maybe rebounds a bit from this absolutely disappointing season. If he opts out, we can roll with the $35MM and Polacios and Lewis next season at SS and beyond. $35MM would go a long way to improving our pitching staff - say a solid #2 starter and two really good relievers. Who’s to say which model wins more games? Either way, we have a strong enough young core and enough FA budget to put together an interesting team with or without Correa. Having said that, I’m not convinced anyway that with Rocco at the helm, they will get over the hump and make the playoffs, let alone win a playoff game or series. Doesn’t matter much too me. Six of one or half dozen of the other - I’m still going to watch every game and cheer for the Twins
  22. Nashvilletwin
    1. Gray is not part of the trade discussion. We will see how healthy Mahle is over the next 14 months. 2. Like I said - tongue in cheek, but Lopez just seems to get hit hard. 3. Rocco is who Rocco is. FWIW, and it ain’t worth much, IMHO he’s not taking us to the promised land. 4. Injured or not, I would still never throw Buxton a strike. He’s still too good when the ball is in the zone and too undisciplined when it’s not. 5. My bad on Arraez. So our best two hitters are making less than $3MM. Point is still valid. Agree that theoretically Larnach and Kiriloff are not among our best five hitters - but they both were performing as such when they went down. Correa is hitting .182 with RISP. He needs to produce like Lee Majors x 6, but is more like x 3 with the benefit of inflation. Kepler is really struggling and, except for one year with lots of HRs, he is who he is. I’d never trade Larnach, Kiriloff or Gordon for Kepler and if all four were healthy, Max would be riding the pine.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Observations (somewhat tongue-in-cheek) from last night: 1. The Reds fleeced us just like the Giants did a couple of years ago. 2. You need to pay attention if you are sitting anywhere near the field when Lopez is pitching. 3. Rocco is like modern America - not willing to manufacture anything. 4. By now, the league should have discovered the best way to pitch to Buxton - basically just don’t throw him a strike and let him get himself out (occasionally he may walk, but that’s no big deal because he won’t steal and if he does happen to get a hit, it’s almost never a single anyway). Literally, I’d never throw him a strike. 5. $65MM for our #2-5 hitters last night. Meanwhile, our best two hitters are making a grand total under $1.5MM. Add in Larnach, Kiriloff and Gordon, and arguably our best five hitters (before the injuries, granted) are making under $5MM.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Thank goodness for Sandy Leon. Walks up to the plate and calmly (and perfectly) executes a safety squeeze. Honestly, how many other Twins could do that as well as he did? Also gets a runner to 2nd for Arraez to drive home. Good for Sandy and good for Rocco to put the play on. We should not underestimate how important that first run was given the penchant for this team not to show up offensively. These little “baseball” plays matter a lot.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Dick Bremer in the bottom of the 11th with Ward at the plate: “Pagan is averaging one and a half strikeouts per inning pitched.” I turned to my wife and with much sarcasm said: “Yeah, ok, so that’s the good news. The bad news he’s averaging giving up one dinger per inning pitched as well.” Two pitches later - LOL. So hard to waste an outing like that by Bundy - he pitched his heart out. Claps for him. Btw, here’s a riddle. How do you make sure the Twins don’t score a run in an inning? Answer: have them get a man on second with no outs.
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