Nashvilletwin

To my fellow DNers who believe Rocco should be back, I respectfully ask if you might respond to the following questions: 1. Is Rocco a better than average in-game manager (i.e. do his in-game decisions, involving pitchers, substitutions, base running, field positioning, etc. etc. result in more net wins or losses vis-a-vis other managers)? 2. Would you say his Twins are well known for playing strong fundamental baseball in all aspects of the game? Even some aspects? If so, please identify. 3. Would you say that Rocco and his staff have consistently developed young players once they joined the big club to the most of their potential (it would be helpful if you could cite some examples other than Miranda and Gordon in their rookie seasons)? 4. How have Rocco and his staff performed in terms of keeping his players on the field vis-a-vis other teams? Above average or below average? Or is this irrelevant because injuries are all bad luck anyway? 5. Would you say that Rocco’s teams have demonstrated the confidence or “swagger” to perform their best against stronger competition? Do his Twins teams (perhaps outside of the clear outlier “Bomba Squad” year) ever really look like they belong in the conversation as true contenders? 6. Would you agree that for small-mid market teams to truly compete against big market teams attracting better hitters and pitchers, they must have a strong in-game manager, play better fundamental baseball than others, develop their young players to their potential, keep the talent they do have on the field, and develop a confidence that allows then to compete against stronger teams? If not, please identify the areas of performance that are more important for a team like the Twins to contend. Truly, I’m just trying to understand the basis/criteria for evaluating the job performance of the Manager, Minnesota Twins. Objectively, how has he performed against the criteria and can you realistically point to anything that might hint at substantive improvement (if any is sought) in the future? Rocco’s performance should be evaluated just like any senior executive - against the goals of the organization and his specific job description criteria and responsibilities.

Agree, but that’s not really going to move the dial.

Kind of a shot across the bow perhaps? A bit of - “it’s all of us or none” maybe? Pohlads are too smart - they must see Rocco is not the right leader for their type of ball club - mid market and young. To win, they know the team has to play better fundamentals and have a stronger in-game manager. Rocco’s skill base might be better with a high priced slugging team with lots of veteran leadership and maybe some big egos. That’s not the Twins. Regardless, expect more throwing the ball around, endless base running gaffes, not moving base runners over, poor pitching management, etc, etc. Why would it change? Every team under Rocco has exhibited these traits.

Ted, your points are solid and it will likely be the case that the FO and Rocco are back. Here are a few thoughts though. First, there will (should) be a “massive” lineup shakeup before Opening Day 2023. Correa, Sanchez, Urshela, Kepler, Sano, Bundy, Archer, Pagan plus maybe one or two more will in all likelihood be gone. Those are eight players that were essentially “starters” when the season began. These departures open up a lot of cash for FAs and opportunity for younger players. Second, what exactly has our manager and coaching staff done to build confidence in our ownership that they are the right people to lead a new, substantially revamped lineup? Do they have exhibit the in-game strategies/decision-making to “steal” more wins than they lose? How are they at getting the team to play solid fundamental baseball (a must for any mid-market team)? What’s been their ability for keeping players on the field (or is that just luck anyway)? What is their track record for developing young major leaguers (Miranda, Gordon and Arraez seem to have positive momentum, but Kepler, Sano, Berrios, and others stagnated badly and the jury is still out on others like Kiriloff, Larnach, and Jeffers)? Is a good clubhouse enough and are we certain that is even the case (I have no reason to doubt it’s the case). Any objective analysis would conclude that the coaching staff has underperformed, perhaps significantly, in these areas. Unless some massive improvements occur (and, again, what evidence is there that is possible), there is little chance that a mid-market team like the Twins led by Rocco can realistically contend. If it’s a package deal - the FO and Rocco together - then you are probably correct: they both stay and we should not expect anything other than another “wait ‘til next year” in 2023, But if I’m the FO (and certainly the Pohlads), I’m not sure I’d want to hitch my wagon to the current coaching staff - remember, they have careers and a business to run too.

Excellent point re acquiring a “big bat”. I wrestled with that in crafting my comment and agree with you that such a bat is missing. It actually becomes more important given the lack of speed in the lineup and the inability of this team to move runners over. If we could keep Correa on a 5 yr/$150MM, I’d probably go for it and add one starter, two relievers, and a cheaper backup C. So your plan is a good alternative as well and very possible. Re Rocco (and his staff) it could be that he is (they are) pretty “average”. However, Rocco and staff have clearly underperformed in the four key areas I mentioned. Again, for a mid-market team comprised of mostly younger, developing players to compete, an “average” coaching staff will never cut it. Can Rocco and crew improve? Maybe, but where is the evidence to support that? The focus of the post was hope for 2023 and it’s a big ask to think Rocco et al will improve enough to turn that hope into reality.

Great comments on this thread - both pro and con re optimism for next season. Here’s another two cents if the Pohlads truly want to contend next season: 1. The starting staff will need at least one solid (i.e. reliable #3 type - sorry we don’t get #1’s or #2’s) FA addition. Not sure who that will be, but there are too many ifs among the nine players mentioned to be comfortable. Mahle and/or Maeda were/was supposed to be that guy, but both should only be looked at as pleasant upside at this point until proven otherwise. FA Budget: $15MM if they go with one addition, $20-25MM if two additions. 2. Same essentially with the relief staff, where I expect at least two, hopefully three, additions to the core of Duran, Jax and Thielbar. Lopez was supposed to be in that group, but obviously cannot be included. This is the most important area for additions: a deep shutdown pen given the way the starting staff is built is a must. FA Budget: $15-20MM. No reason to layup here. 3. Re position players, expect Correa, Sanchez, Urshela, Kepler, and Sano not to be back, leaving us with three holes: SS, C, and RH OF. Don’t expect big bucks to be spent on any of the three as SS is a one year hole at most with Lewis and Lee in the wings and Polacios a cheap stopgap option, C is viewed, rightly or wrongly, as a 40-50% job, and the overall OF depth (even with Kepler gone) is solid. Of the three, the biggest need, and where the most money could be spent, is probably C and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Sanchez is brought back. FA Budget: $10MM - $25MM depending on the SS approach and the depth of the C market. 4. With the lineup described above and a mid-market budget of $125MM give or take, significant improvement in four areas will be required to contend: playing consistent strong fundamental baseball, young players continuing to improve, health, and above average in-game coaching (i.e. managerial decisions lead to net more wins than losses). Any objective assessment of our current coaching staff would lead to the conclusion that substantive, wholesale changes need to be made. Of all the moves ownership could make, this is the most important - if the current staff starting with Rocco is left in place, expectations should be tempered significantly. So, in sum, there is certainly reason for optimism given our current core players and available FA budget. A handful of key additions and a new coaching staff could make this team fun to watch into October next season.

Trade Kepler for a bag of sand if that’s all you get. The salary savings will net us a great reliever or two possibly. The turnover coming is going to be huge: Sano, Max, Sanchez, Urshela, Archer, Bundy, and probably Correa - who am I missing? Polanco might not even be safe (but I think he will be). Think of the cash savings from this group that could be redeployed. Wallner is on the big club next year playing RF.

The premise of the article is correct. The Twins were in a position to contend for the division and (commendably) made moves at the deadline to bolster a weak pitching unit. There are risks involved in making those moves and that’s part of the game. We all (should) get that. However, the two points the article misses are: a) the ability of the FO to assess the true level of risk prior to making the moves and b) the decisions made to put the team in the position of need to have to make such moves. Re the first, over the past several seasons, it’s pretty clear the FO has systematically underestimated the level of “risk” (injury and performance) of the pitchers acquired at the deadline. Can that really be debated or do we just always chalk it up to bad luck? Re the second, the poorer the construction of the pitching unit (and its hard not to argue that at this year’s deadline our pitching unit was in pretty bad shape), the more likely it will be that the FO’s ability to properly assess the risk will be impaired. Sorry, but bad moves upfront most certainly contribute to bad moves (i.e. poorer, less accurate risk assessment) later on. Risks exist - everyone understands. But shrewd FO’s are better able to assess the true levels of that risk.

Little league…..sheesh

Not sure, but I’m cheering for Arraez to win the batting title.

Agree - not a pattern for the franchise - just this FO (you just listed four happening in the last couple of years, three of which could result in actually no benefit at all to the organization). Actually, I was just being a bit facetious, but I will admit I’m not a fan of the “bad luck” excuse - despite our bad luck on the injury front, this team was capable of much more this season.

If I had a nickel….. Seriously, thanks for that. Hope he has a speedy and complete recovery.

And you know this because…….? Obviously, nothing is certain, including any player’s health or extent of recovery from injury. A career ending injury would be tragic for the young man. Pray that’s not the case. Let’s hope he’s back better than ever; of course, starting next year at the top of our rotation (as opposed to 2024 at the top of another team’s rotation).

Are we certain Mahle will be healthy next year? I’m not sure we know enough to slot him in the rotation, let alone at the top, quite yet. The entire situation just feels like classic Twins: big trade, immediate arm issues, il, rest, try to avoid surgery, come back to pitch a bit, reinjury, surgery, out for year, blah, blah, blah. Hope I’m wrong. Regardless, Ryan will be a big part of the rotation next year - deservedly.

Agree. Ryan has had a very fine rookie year. Take out just a handful of big innings, and it was exceptional. Well done Joe!

Rec this. But would insert “a new manager and” in front of “full healthy…”. We’ve won one game vs. the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, and Guardians in the last 20 during a so-called pennant race. A single game (granted that’s one more than the playoff games we’ve won in about as many chances ….lol). Many of us TDers blame that on health. Not I. Nor should the Pohlads. Until we play better fundamental baseball than those teams, we will never be competitive - regardless of our health. And this team has never played consistent, solid fundamental baseball under Rocco whether in the field, at the plate, on the bases, or coaching from the bench. Not in a single facet. And there is no evidence to suggest that we will in the future. You want to get to the next level? Sure, better health is an important start. However, this team must perform better in all the little things that add up to multiple wins over a season and that only starts with new leadership in the dugout. I have confidence the Pohlads will see that.

Don’t get me wrong though. Max is a superior defender and one of my favourite Twins. He has value for sure. I’m just not sure at the price he fits our needs best. But, you are probably right - back next year.

Great question. Probably not much. Now cue the TDers who think Max will bounce back with the outlawed shift. Still, $9.5MM is a lot of capital to have available to fill holes. Sano, Kepler, Polanco. Three great signs at the time, but really only one looks like it might pan out over the full life of the deal, let alone on a follow-up deal. Sad.

Sorry to ask the tough, but legit, question: will we see Kepler in a Twins uniform again?

This. Sorry if the truth hurts.

Fundamentals - mistakes. Both by our players and manager. It’s our Achilles Heel. Has been, and always will be, under Rocco. And we will never win unless we are better at the fundamentals than the other teams. It’s not rocket science. Why can’t our ownership see that?

Fundamentals. Our Achilles Heel. All season long.

Great catch by Cave. Ok, let’s stay hot. It ‘ain’t over ‘til it’s over.

#1 Frustration: playing poor fundamental baseball virtually day-in and day-out, especially when we know that, with our roster and injuries, superior fundamentals - from both the players and coaching staff - is our best chance to truly contend. Sure, we’ve had more than our share of injuries. Get it. But there are no excuses for bad fundamental baseball. None. Zilch. Nada. If this team had been fundamentally sound, we’d be winning the division - injuries or not. That is what is so frustrating. Figure out how to solve that in 2023 and see where that gets us.

We are a mid market team. To compete with the larger market teams, we must do some things under the manager/coaching staff’s areas of responsibility extremely well and, hopefully, much better than others. Those include: 1. Playing/managing strong fundamental baseball day in and day out. 2. Have strong team chemistry - confidence and camaraderie. 3. Continue to develop young players once they make the big leagues. (A number 4. is health - keeping your players on the field. I’m not sure whose responsibility that is - coaching staff or FO. Either way, it’s been a disaster obviously). Objectively, how has the this staff under Rocco performed in these areas? 1. We have never played strong fundamental baseball under Rocco. Never. Also, no one would ever call Rocco a strong in-game manager. Sure, he’s had his moments, but overall, it’s not his forte. 2. No playoff victories. We just went 1-13 vs. the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, and Guardians over the past month or so in the midst of a pennant race. Camaraderie? Perhaps. Confidence? None. Rocco has not been able to get his teams past the mental block of being able to compete with the better teams. 3. Which young Twins under Rocco have developed to their potential? Certainly the jury is still out on a couple, notably Miranda and Gordon (trend is positive). But how many more have stagnated or failed? If you want to consistently win, you must have your young talent continue to improve and get the most out of them - I’m not sure I see the track record of that under Rocco. Rocco has won more games than lost. No doubt, he has done a lot of good things. The question is: is he the guy to deliver a consistent contender for a Pennant? Unless he substantively improves in key areas managing/leading a well-positioned mid-market club, the answer is likely (and objectively) no.