Nashvilletwin

RC, I like where you are headed here and disagree with TopGunn that this wouldn’t sell to the fans. Buxton/Correa and new rookies will sell at the beginning. These are Minnesota fans - winning will keep selling later in the year; losing won’t sell regardless of who’s on the team. A couple of thoughts: 1. Kiriloff instead of Garlick, lefty bat notwithstanding. He could start in RF with Larnach in LF. Martin and Gordon are the primary RH bats off the bench or against a lefty starter. 2. There is room still for Lewis and Lee later in the year. In fact, I think with those two and no Garlick and Celestino, your position player lineup is pretty much how this team is going to look come late August. 3. Maeda starts - SP3. So it’s Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan and Ober with SWR, Winder, Varland, Dobnak, etc. waiting in the wings, 4. I like Fulmer, but even with him we still need two more really good, reliable, non-injured RPs to add to this group to replace Maeda and Winder. 5. Are there really no better C options than Sanchez at $8MM? 6. I’d like to see whom we could get for Kepler, Polanco, and Urshela - maybe one or two SP4/5 types, one or two RPs, or a C to address some of points 3-5 above. Good job.

Prediction: Given good health, Julien, Martin, Lewis, Wallner, and maybe even Lee (for Lee it’s just timing as he has the biggest upside of this group) will be on and contributing to the big club by the the end of August. That means Kepler, Polanco, and Urshela will be gone. Celestino will be in AAA.

Although torn, I hope we sign Correa. $300MM/8 years. A couple of reasons: 1. The old saying rings true: a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. Meaning Correa > Lewis and Lee. 2. However, when Lewis and Lee turn out to be exceptional major leaguers, and I fully expect they will, we have room for them at 3rd and 2nd, respectively (which may be their optimal positions anyway). 3. A 2024 infield (including a backup) of Correa at $37.5MM with Arraez at $5MM and Lewis, Lee, and Miranda at $700k each is not too expensive and has great positional flexibility as needed. 4. By the second half of the contract, the numbers won’t hurt much at all given salary escalation, inflation, etc. 5. Buxton is the only other position player making any serious coin - some combination of Larnach, Gordon, Kiriloff, Wallner, Jeffers, Julien and Martin will likely comprise most of the remaining position player slots and all will be on league minimum and under team control for a while in 2024. 6. We have the money; in fact, points #3-5 above indicate we still have plenty of cash to add quality players on the mound and perhaps behind the plate. We will need pitching to win, but there is still cash available. 7. With the way the team is currently comprised and the outlook for the next several years, right now is an excellent time to pull the trigger on Correa. 8. Oh, and he’s really, really good and a strong leader (which this club truly needs).

I agree on the Gray request if Rocco and he can’t come to an agreement on pitching deeper into the game. However, I don’t think it will be granted per se. Re my predictions, I’m not saying I’m necessarily hoping for them. Nothing would make me happier than Mahle is a stud, Buxton plays every game in CF, Kiriloff is healthy all year, we sign a stud catcher and #1 starter, and Polanco and Urshela play like all stars all year.

Great post - yes, it looks like a busy off-season. Probably starts with a decision on SS. My sure-to-be incorrect predictions: 1. Gordon has proven he is the backup CF. 2/3. Kepler, sadly but rightfully, gets traded. Gordon, Larnach, Kiriloff and Wallner are the two corner outfielders. 4. Urshela is resigned and splits 3B with Miranda. However, Urshela is moved at the deadline when Lewis and Lee arrive. 5. Polanco starts the year and Julien finishes it. 6. Arraez is your everyday starter. Miranda is primary backup. Kiriloff not as much. 7. Yes. Whoever isn’t in the field. 8. Lewis returns strong. Larnach too. Buxton and Kiriloff struggle to consistently stay on the field (oh how I hate writing that). 9. Maeda is a starter. Mahle struggles with his arm health and is a disappointment. Paddock does not meaningfully contribute this year. Grey is a stud. Ryan improves and is also a stud. Several young SPs become solid 3-4 types by September. One mediocre signee is added (could be Bundy). 10. Duran stays in the pen. Lopez, Alcala, Jax and Thielbar are solid. Pagan is gone. We add at least two really good FAs (please dear lord). Three additional predictions: 1. We resign Correa. 2. No big splash made at C. 3. Lewis, Lee, Julien and Martin are all on the club and contributing by the end of August.

Rec this. The Twins are basically quite poor at all of Martin’s best attributes: OBP, base stealing, not striking out. The game is headed in that direction. He will be a valuable RH bat at the top of the order along with Arraez, Lee, Lewis. and Julien. Or he could be that spark in the 9th spot. There are lots of potential fielding spots for him - even as a super utility playing 4-6 times per week. Of course, we could just trade another one of our leading young prospects for a starter or reliever with an injury history…. Keep him for now for sure.

Mahle was supposed to be the Woodruff of ‘23, right? So do we now need Woodruff too because we have have no confidence that Mahle is going to be even close to what we thought we paid for? Or do we need to trade away more young talent because we are just one strong starter to complement Mahle away from competing for a pennant in ‘23? So let’s just keep gutting the future to cover up the FO’s pitcher developmental weaknesses and trading mistakes. The Brewers can have Mahle, Paddock, and Pagan back instead - two front line starters and a high leverage reliever should get it done, no? Sorry, it’s Friday morning and I should be in a better mood. But the Brewers are not taking option #2 and that was the only option listed even remotely worth considering from our perspective.

Glad you like “being by the water” Brooks - we’ve got lots of water here in Minnesota and we hope you enjoy our lakes and rivers for a long, long time.

The previous “young core” - Sano, Polanco, Kepler, and Berrios - couldn’t get it done outside of one really fun, special year. I’ve truly enjoyed watching them so much over the past several years. Thanks gents. The Twins moved on from Berrios obviously (and smartly) earlier, but it’s now time to transition away from the other three. All are descending players with none having reached their true potential (Polanco being the closest). Their resignings were prescient, but the inability of the organization to continue to build upon their performance trajectory is what is most disappointing. For a mid-market team like the Twins, ongoing player development must become a source of differentiated competitive advantage. Hopefully lessons were learned and we do better with the new “young core” of Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Jeffers, Miranda, Gordon, Arraez, Wallner, and even Celestino. Each of those players has a solid, if not very high, ceiling.

Rec this. Sage words from an Old-Timey TD member.

Love Max - one of my favourite Twins. But he doesn’t appear to be an ascending player at this point. Instead, the hitting data would suggest the opposite. Max trade value for Max is probably more near term than mid-term. Pull the trigger on a trade, redeploy the capital, and provide space for the new young core. The old young core - Kepler, Sano, Polanco, and Berrios - will likely all be gone by the trade deadline at the latest. Leider Max, aber es ist Zeit “Auf Wiedersehen” zu sagen. Viel Glueck mein Freund.

Agree 100%. There has been a lot of angst on the TD about whether any of our up-and-comers (Lewis, Lee, Martin, and even Miller) can stick at SS. So, why would we want to spend upwards of $30MM for someone to play mediocre SS for a couple of years and them move to 3B? If that’s the case, we’d a) be way overpaying for our 3rd baseman, b) still have to solve SS, and c) be blocking one of our top targets (who’d be making 700k). Sign Correa. We have the money and in 8 years $30MM will only really be about $15MM. Besides, with our new young core manning lots of roster spots, we’d have plenty of cash left over for pitching FAs - a SP and a few quality relievers.

Agree. The Twins have seven solid young infielder prospects/major leaguers: Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Martin. You could throw in Jeffers as well behind the dish. This should be our next, new young “core” (replacing Sano, Kepler and Polanco) arriving at different times but all together as a unit probably in ‘24. Hopefully Kiriloff, Larnach and Wallner are part of the gang too. This group has a strong mix of pop, speed, OBP, and interchangeability/positional flexibility (for example, Gordon and Martin could be highly productive “super utilities”). Cheap too. Add Correa and get 100 games out of Buxton in CF and this looks like a strong lineup with enough cash to build a pitching staff to maintain a true open window for at least a couple of years. The key is to get these young players the coaching, training, and innings to keep (and continuously) developing their potential. We can’t afford Sano and Kepler type plateauings.

Would this be a contending position player lineup in ‘24 (and the next few years as well) from both a competitive and realistic budget perspective? Interchangeable Infield and DH as Needed (Total: $47.1) Correa SS ($35). Lewis 3B ($0.7). Lee 2B ($0.7). Arraez 1B ($5.0). Miranda DH ($0.7) Interchangeable Outfield and DH as Needed (Total: $17.1) Buxton CF ($15). Larnach LF ($0.7). Kiriloff RF ($0.7). Wallner RF/LF ($0.7). Backup CF/Super Utility and DH as Needed (Total: $1.4) Gordon CF/Other ($0.7). Martin CF/Other ($0.7) Catcher (Total: $1.4) Jeffers ($0.7). Backup - TBD ($0.7) 13 Position Players (Total: $67.0) This lineup has speed, power, BA, OBP, fielding, throwing, flexibility, depth, RH and LH bats, vets and youth at a very reasonable price. And it wouldn’t need to change much for several years. Lots of cash ($75 give or take) available for pitching as well. Conclusion: sign Correa if we can.

A couple of questions: 1. How many of the 10 year deals for 28-30 year old players look good after year 7 or so? There must be data on that, right? 2. Having said that, how much is $35MM/year really worth in years 8-10 anyway? With inflation, tv revenue growth, etc., that $35MM may only really be $15-$20MM equivalent. 3. If we win one WS in that time frame, do the Pohlads really care? The FO? 4. Sure we have some solid SS talent in the organization (Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Miller), but isn’t, as the adage says, a bird in the hand better than two in the bush? 5. Signing CC is not incongruent with many, if not all, of those prospects playing huge roles on the Twins. In ‘24 would we not be thrilled with the four infield spots and DH covered interchangeably by Correa, Lewis, Lee, Miranda and Arraez? And with Martin and Gordon in the super utility roles, specifically backing up Buxton in CF with a combo of Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner or a new RH bat in the corner OF positions? 6. With Urshela, Kepler, Sano and Polanco gone, and with all of the essentially league minimum young talent among the position players, isn’t this the time to spend? Even more so if we believe in our young SP talent? 7. Isn’t signing CC the message you want to send to your fan base in a tough economic environment? Conclusion: Aggressively pursuing CC makes sense. Even if the last few years are a disaster, the deterioration of the true dollar cost over time coupled with matching the high CC salary with the low salaries of our young core over the near to mid-term makes the risk worthwhile. But let’s not be disappointed if we don’t land him - there are still many alternative, compelling strategies for pursuing a title we can pursue.

Not saying he will get one. Just saying he might seek one. He opens the season with the Twins and will stay probably up to the deadline at least depending on if we are contending. On the margin, I’d prefer to have players committed to both individual and organisational success. I’d think Gray would satisfy both of those preferences with a little more of an open mind from the manager.

The Urshela trade decision might be independent of the SS sweepstakes. Regardless of how that transpires, it is more likely than not he remains a Twin to start the year. If we nab a top SS, it indicates we are going for it and he likely stays (and if we are contending at the deadline, he might stay the entire year). If we don’t acquire a SS, he likely stays to help platoon at SS until one or more of Lewis, Lee, and/or Martin are ready. In this case, he might get moved at the deadline as we prep for ‘24. He’s a solid ballplayer for sure. The question is how do you maximise value for him if it does not appear that he is part of the equation in ‘24 and beyond. This FO will not openly (nor decidedly) choose ‘23 to be a transition year to an infield (and plenty of DH) comprised of Lewis, Lee, Martin, Arreaz and Miranda - even though if all goes well that could/should be the case.

May need to be patient. Could be a trade solution. But, I think organisationally, big bat RH corner OF is our biggest hole from a mid-term perspective. I love Gray, but not convinced he won’t seek a trade if our 5 inning starter strategy stays in place. He will be in a contract year and (deservedly) eager to show that he’s more than a two times through the order guy in order to get the big bucks. Unfortunately, I have the under on Mahle ever really contributing. I so hope I’m wrong.

Yes, I’d trade both. Ultimately Urshela too. All before the deadline. I’m not expecting a ton, but RP would be my target. But this was an incomplete exercise in looking at ‘23 as a transition year to ‘24. The biggest hole in ‘24 from a positional player basis is probably not SS, but more likely a big RH corner OF bat. That’s where I’d be looking to spend the big FA dollars on a multi year deal. Just thinking a bit more about it. In ‘24, we could have these five players comprising our starting IF and DH: Lee, Lewis, Martin, Arraez, and Miranda. Those five could essentially play every day, provide excellent interchangeability options and should offer a strong mix of fielding, OBP, power, and speed. Also, other than Arraez, four of those five are essentially on league minimum. That’s pretty darn good. With our existing big bat RH CF limited to 100 or so games and depth at LH corner OF (Wallner, Kiriloff, and Larnach), the real need is a power RH corner OF bat. That’s the FA I’d go get. Add in Gordon (CF mostly) to that group and you have six really good options in the OF with three RH and LH bats. Two players are relatively expensive and four are essentially league minimum. Throw in a quality backup C with Jeffers and that’s my plan for the 13 position players in ‘24. This leaves lots of $ for the pitching staff.

Great points. There are options (Urshela, Polanco, Gordon) for covering SS until one of Lewis, Lee or even Martin is ready. As an aside, I actually think it’s possible that those three are our starting SS (Lewis), 3B (Lee), and 2B (Martin) in 2024. With Miranda and Arraez, those five should be a solid fielding and hitting (average and power) interchangeable starting infield and DH. Which leads to the question: is SS really our biggest position player hole where we should spend big FA dollars? I’d suggest the answer is no. Assuming a dial moving FA would require big dollars over multiple years, then I’d say our organisation’s biggest hole is a high quality, big bat RH corner outfielder. That’s where I’d spend the money - especially given our existing big bat RH outfielder is probably a 100-120 games per season player.

We shouldn’t sleep on Martin. He’s always been a top OBP guy, even when struggling at the plate. With next year’s rule changes, the Twins need more (actually, a lot more) speed and he has it. I’m seeing a future top of the order of RH Martin and LH Arraez (think of the pitches he would see with Martin on base). The question may be: can Martin play 2B? The new “young core” may actually be Lewis, Lee, Wallner, and Martin to go along with Miranda, Arraez, Jeffers and Gordon. I’m hopeful that Kiriloff and/or Larnach can be part of that too. With Buxton and adding one really good position player FA and a decent backup C - that’s not a bad top 12/13 heading into 2024. 11 of those players are already in the system and 9 (other than Arraez and Buxton) are essentially at league minimum.

I was just seeing what a complete rebuild could look like and this was posted accidentally. When I x’d out of the site, it just posted. No biggie. I’m not advocating this plan and don’t think it will be put in place. Having said that, a position player team somewhat like this by year end could be possible if we get off to a slow start. Also, I’m not confident Gray will not ask for a trade - good starters in contract years don’t want to be seen as 5 inning guys and if Rocco won’t give him much more of a leash, he might leave. Mahle, is of course, a wild card as well - might be moved with a slow team start or based on his health. What this does show is that if the FO sticks with the current starting staff, there is plenty of cash to acquire two good FA position players, a backup C, and a couple of relievers.

It posted without my approval. I was just starting to look at what a complete rebuild might look like just for fun. I clicked out and it posted. No biggie. I don’t like it and am pretty sure no one else will. Clearly this is not the direction we will head. Having said that, it’s not that unrealistic to think something like this - with Lewis back, Urshela, Kepler and Gray traded (might happen this off season - no high quality starter going into a contract test wants to be thought of as a 5 inning guy only), Mahle gone (injury or trade), and a number of younger SP/RP prospects in the line up - if the season goes south early. The good news is that this shows there is obviously plenty of capital available for at least two really good FA position players plus a backup C assuming we stick with the starting staff and only add one or two relievers.

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.70M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Austin ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 54.07% under budget

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.70M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Austin ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 54.07% under budget