Which Frontline Starter Should the Twins Go Get?

I don't think the Twins sign or trade for any starter with less than 3 years team control. They currently have 3 of the 4 starters named above with only 1 year of control. If the #5 spot is not used to develop an in house starter, then next winter could easily look as bad as last winter.  They may focus on trying to sign Gray and Mahle to multi year deals with the #5 spot going to Ober to start with.

Personally, I would sign the 2 best relief pitchers on the market and focus on developing the best pen in baseball. Go with our current starters and dominate the later innings with the pen. We're already 70% of the way there and relief pitchers are less expense on long contracts than starters and easier to turnover year after year.

As has been mentioned in other comments, it would not surprise me if the Twins stood pat on their SP for 2023.  Three potential quality SP coming back from injury, 2-3 guys on the cusp in the minors.  Their is always risk, but this feels a little mitigated.

I believe the Twins were not expecting to compete this year.  I think all of the moves they made were for 2023, and the first half of 2022 was just exceeding expectations.  Correa was just a bonus.

Correa walking gives the team some flexibility here.  They may make a FA move on a top(ish) guy if the price is right, but I do not see them moving any of their high-end prospects.

There are some names in this article that really make me nervous - no to Kluber, for example.  No to Clevinger, please.  If we want to upgrade we may have to trade one of the pitchers we have plus something.  I would think Maeda would be a perfect move quickly candidate. 

Kodai Senga

Maeda has never been a work horse, coming back from an injury, I don't expect much. You hope we don't get another Chris Archer, well we have one in Maeda. If Maeda can produce as many innings as Archer, I'd be satisfied. If Maeda is profiled as SP and used as one, I wouldn't be surprized if we lose him as soon as we get him back.

There'll be a lot of competition for high end SP both FA & trade. I have my wish list but I'm not holding my breath. I just hope we have some one that some one wants, that FO is willing to deal.

He doesnt, but to get Lopez or Alcantara it will take Kepler And some top level pitching prospect

Most of the Twins internal pitching options come with significant risk.  They may or may not pan out in 2023.  Like pre 2022 too much of hope it works out attitude doomed the staff.  We have guys coming back from injuries, some guys who haven't pitched much over the past two- three years,  and young prospects who may or not pan out.  Relying on questionable prospects is very risky as well.  Twins created this mess with their annual dumpster diving for pitchers.  Let's see how they work out of it.

Rodon is the one who moves the needle in the FA pool. He's worth the risk, i think.

Syndergaard is kind of interesting, but more likely raises the floor than elevates the ceiling. I'm having trouble figuring out what his market is, since he's been essentially dropped from the playoff rotation, but didn't have a bad year overall. Really hard to know if he might find another gear a full season past injury, or whether this is who he likely is as a pitcher from now on. Not sure he's better than say, Joe Ryan any longer. 

There's some interesting names listed on the trade group, but why would the Padres move on from Snell? Gallen would be a great fit, but a) would take a metric truckload to pry him loose, and b) not sure AZ is really interested in moving him.

I just posted my plan for next year and included Bassitt.  I like Rodon better, but I am still a little concerned about his injury history and we have too many "ifs" already in Maeda, Mahle, and Winder.  Bassitt will give us some innings.

38 minutes ago, FrankQuilicy said:

He doesnt, but to get Lopez or Alcantara it will take Kepler And some top level pitching prospect

The MLB trade simulator show to get Alcantara the Twins would have to give up Duran, Larnach, Lee and Ryan. You might be able to swap in Lewis or Miranda for Lee or possible Ober and Polanco for Ryan.

Lopez would cost way less, something that has Lee/Lewis/Miranda and a Varland or SWR. Maybe Polanco/Arrez and a Ober with a throw in or two.

If it were up to me, I would:

-Go head first for Rodon 5/140 (Saves about 7 mil from Correa fall off)

- Extend Gray for 2/28 mil: He's a solid #2 and I think he would appreciate stability as he goes further into his 30's and doesnt change the cap too much from his current hit long term.

- Extend Mahle 4/64 mil: This is a gamble but we have to gamble on the upside which is a very good #2 pitcher

- Put Kenta in long relief or stacked starter role until June

-Trade Kepler (won't return much) and retain Gio

At this point, the Twins have the team on paper to seek an ace who can change there fortunes. They will have to outbid everyone though. This would frame the Twins up with a Top 7 Rotation in MLB with depth:

Playoffs: 

1) Rodon- rock-solid ace who can pitch against Verlander, Cole, etc. 

2) Gray- rock-solid #2 pitcher who could go head-to-head with Nestor Cortes or Framber Valdez

3) Mahle - A #2 pitcher who would be pitching out of the 3 slot. Would beat most teams #3's.

4) Ryan- A solid #4 pitcher who would be in his correct role. Hopeful for continued offspeed pitch growth

5) Ober/Maeda - Wildcards who provide good upside and depth.

That is a rotation that can win in October and would give us close to our current cap hit for the next few years.

Offense would be:

C- Jeffers- Slightly below average catcher overall

1B- Arraez- Above Average 1B

2B- Polanco- Above Average 2B

SS- Gordon until Royce is ready- Below Average overall

3B- Gio -  Average 

DH- Miranda - Above Average with opportunity to shine (will take over 3B full time in 2024)

LF- Larnach - Average

CF: Buxton-Elite when he plays

RF: Kiriloff or FA who can provide some power

I would be surprised if this didn't amount to a Top 12 offense. Top 7 Pitching Staff + Top 12 offense = opportunity for a playoff run.

Bullpen

CL: Duran

SU: Jax

SU: Lopez

High Leverage: Theilbar

Medium Leverage: Fulmer (retain for 2/8 million) but would be happier with a better addition.

Long Relief: Maeda

Low Leverage: Moran (it's time to give him a shot)

Last spot: Josh Winder - I think he could be a multi-inning threat out of the pen and he doesn't stay healthy while starting. 

This group would probably be middle of the way, which would be huge for the Twins.

A left handed starter in the rotation would be nice  ...

We all know who , take the risk ...

Rodon is a gamble that the Twins should take because the need is there. Miami is an interesting trade partner, potentially. I want Pablo Lopez and Edward Cabrera and would send them a ton in return. Guys like Larnach, Jeffers, Mahle, or others; some combination that the Marlins find useful. Gray pitched reasonably effective innings for the Twins but he also threw less than 120 innings. Ober and Winder are guys I like but they will be doubtful for significant innings going forward and maybe more useful in the pen. Adding talent at the top of the rotation will cost the Twins and I'm hoping it can be done while holding onto their best athletes/defenders. Just because the Twins gave up a bundle of guys to get Gray, Mahle, and J. Lopez is not a reason to hang onto them in the future when it may be possible to improve the staff with new additions. Falvey needs to be open and take some risks.

If the intent is to add as good as Gray, and I'd include a healthy Male, there are some FA out there that I like as possible options at least close if not as good for, what I would expect, in the $14-18M per range. Bassitt, Tallon, Wacha, Walker, Eovaldi are just a handful of names at 30yo plus that could provide solid, mid-rotation production and reliability. Quintana saw a huge resurgence in 2022 and could be very interesting on a short deal considering his career and his 2022. None are top of the rotation arms, but all have the ability to challenge for the #3 spot and throw better than that at times. And while many, if not all, have some question marks, they all offer a lot more potential than Bundy or Archer.

I am NOT opposed to making a trade. Not in the least. Even with moving a lot of milb talent last year, the Twins system is NOT decimated. While not all are rookies any longer, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Ryan, Ober, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Duran, Jax, Moran, Wallner, Lewis, Martin, and Julien are a collection of arms and position players who are all generally young and have either reached the ML level or are very close and should be part of AAA in 2023. And there are a few other "interesting" guys I'm forgetting or leaving out for the moment. And not everyone is going to reach their potential or make a difference. 

But the "problem" in the system is that so many are at the highest level, or very close, and then there is a major drop off...with a few exceptions...until we get to A and rookie ball. Prospects are there to build your team and to also be traded to build your team. But unless there is just a really smart deal to be had whereby we can acquire a really quality arm that doesn't "rob" the ML roster or "decimate" the system, I'm just tired of trading away young talent right now. So again, I'm OK with a trade if there's a really good deal that makes sense. Maybe it would be a pair of deals where we get said SP and trade someone else for a couple prospects. Maybe a 3-way trade. 

But, IMO, Rodon is the almost perfect addition to be added via $, and dispense with the whole trade idea. He will still only be 30yo in 2023. He's coming off a pair of quality back to back seasons. Being LH sure doesn't hurt. There ARE injury risks associated with him. I get that. But he's a risk worth taking, IMO. He's not the proverbial ACE SP, but so few are, and they're not usually available. Verlander, DeGrom and even Nola, aren't coming here for 2023. And while you/we can argue at length about the Twins and modern baseball throwing pitchers only 5-6 IP per start, the Twins are good at "managing" IP for their starters. A quality BP that has some middle relievers is paramount, but I think they are very close to having a really nice 2023 pen with depth and versatility with what they have at their disposal, while adding at least one more reliable, proven arm.

And when you are a mid-market team, some proverbial ACE doesn't just drop in to your lap very often the way Correa did. Or the way Morris did back in the day. You need to build the pen, have depth everywhere on your staff, and TAKE A CHANCE. Rodon IS that chance. The Twins wanted him for 2022, but the Giants got him. The Twins called the Giants in case they were in "sell" mode because they wanted him again. 

He's the perfect choice, even with risk, as the books are mostly clean, and will be again in 2024, even with an extension or maybe two. Give Rodon 3 or 4yrs at $25M and make it happen. The payroll can afford it, he fits a need, he can make a difference, and even at 26-28GS and 160 IP, and no more, he can make said difference. The risk/reward quotient, to me, just leans heavily towards the reward side.

7 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Two thoughts in response to this post. 1) The best athletes/defenders for the Twins were pretty good on defense. That would include Kepler, who most people are ready to jettison and would also include retaining Correa. Despite metrics that put the Twins slightly below average in pitching, they were slightly below the mean in allowing runs. 2) Falvey can and maybe should get lots of criticism, but he has been willing to take risks. The trades for Kiner-Falefa, Paddack and Gio and Sanchez were bold and contained risk.

Maybe fair ... I might have said that Falvey should be willing to take even more risks.

I thought the trades for Gray, Mahle, and Lopez displayed risk. I liked the Mahle trade because I thought the Twins had an outside chance. We don't really know how the Twins missed the severity of his shoulder issue. The Twins wanted a shortstop and IKF for Garver was a simple trade, not really a big trade and both players have finished 2022 with their status declining. The trade with the Yankees was to rid the team from Donaldson's salary. Three Yankees, most notably Cole, wouldn't throw to Sanchez. Gio is a nice complementary player. I think the Yankees took on all of the risk there. I also still do not understand the San Diego trade because we paid for Rogers' contract and took on a guy that was likely to be released and a guy with a specific injury diagnosis. I didn't mind moving on from Roger but it would have saved $11 million if the Twins had just released Rogers. 

So I agree that Falvey has taken some risks. We may just disagree on what trades were risky-no problem. Mainly, it is important for Falvey to continually evolve (I'm sure he does to some extent) and not get tied to players he traded for. 

I still like Kepler but sometimes wonder if he is sick of playing for the Twins.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Two thoughts in response to this post. 1) The best athletes/defenders for the Twins were pretty good on defense. That would include Kepler, who most people are ready to jettison and would also include retaining Correa. Despite metrics that put the Twins slightly below average in pitching, they were slightly below the mean in allowing runs. 2) Falvey can and maybe should get lots of criticism, but he has been willing to take risks. The trades for Kiner-Falefa, Paddack and Gio and Sanchez were bold and contained risk.

A good post!

If I interpret your post correctly, like me, you aren't sure about jettisoning Kepler at this point? To me, he's worth keeping for his defense and league average production while hitting lower in the lineup. They need a RH hitter who is not the "not quite ready" Celestino for an important part of the lineup. 

I think, when we talk about risks, we have to talk about calculated risks. I'm still very confused and conflicted about the Rogers trade. I wanted to keep him and add another quality RH RP to allow Rogers to just fill his role. Instead, they ended up with TWO holes in the pen with the flier on Paddack being healthy.

Obviously it didn't turn out well. But after Rogers was pushed in to a role in which he shouldn't have been placed, he imploded. And Paddack imploded. And do we have to yet again rehash how the FO just falls in love with players? Ugh!

I would have literally taken ANY other pitcher than Pagan against Cleveland at one point. As would we all at some point.

BUT, can you imagine a still young, and health Paddack in 2024 looking really good and everyone screaming to re-sign him? May not happen, but I could see it.

Risk? Maeda had some risk, but he was amazing in 2020 with some tweaks. He looked DOMINATE in ST 2021 before his arm gave out when the season started. Would we give up that amazing 2020? 

Mahle looked normal, went on the IL, looked fine, was acquired, looked fine, and then he didn't. He has no chronic history. He looked good when gotten. Then all hell broke loose. Doctor exams and 2 MRI's say nothing is wrong. Mahle says he's fine, feels good, and just had a tired arm because he didn't have time to ramp up correctly and over extended himself early. Is he right? Did the FO take a risk? Maybe so. And MAYBE Gray is in a similar situation due to his hamstring bothering him so much in 2022. 

I do believe the FO DOES take chanes here and there. But as a mid-market team, you have to at times, don't you?

But man, with a normal offseason and some mean included, you have to wonder/speculate what those "chances" might produce with a healthy Gray and Mahle taking their normal turn in the rotation. Either or both could be extension candidates, especially Mahle. And again, what IF Paddack looks good in 2024?

I get taking chances doesn't always work. But sometimes it does. Maeda in 2020. And sometimes it pays off later. But smart chances are what you have to try at times. Pineda is an example. Paid to do nothing for a year and then provided positive results.

The FO has to do better, and be RIGHT! But sometimes risk DOES pay off and I agree they aren't afraid to take chances.

BUT, there is a difference in risk. When your books are mostly clean now and near future, with talent on hand, you need to take the risk factor up another notch.

"You can expect Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Joe Ryan all to be in Pete Maki’s Opening Day rotation for 2023"

These are the type of assumptions that are going to get us in trouble. Mahle and Maeda are still question marks until they prove their health and after proving their health that they can return to form. Winder needs to prove health. Varland needs to prove that he can maintain success now that the MLB has seen him and has tape to study. SWR needs to prove himself at the MLB level. Ober needs to prove that he can stay healthy and on and on...

If we are being honest with ourselves, we only have two clear reliable starters going into next season.

If we don't want to be honest with ourselves, then we will have a fantastic offseason full of false hype followed by a disappointing actual season

The Twins don't need a(nother) front line starter--at least not right now.

For this off-season, the Twins need to strengthen the bullpen and perhaps the back end of the rotation. 

I believe the analytics regarding starters' effectiveness when facing the top of a batting order for a third time. The numbers don't lie. That, and how many times did the bullpen roll over and die against Cleveland last summer? My dog doesn't "Play Dead" that well.

Two or three more quality bullpen arms should be a priority. There may already be a Duran-esque candidate within the organization. 

Re-sign Correa as much for his defense behind our pitching staff as much as anything else. Put the darn ring on his finger. He dated Minnesota for a year. Go to the jeweler and buy the engagement ring. Don't waste it on a free agent pitching floosie.

See how the marriage works, until mid-summer. If the Twins are in contention, then go get the best frontline starter on the market. 

C'mon. We all know the Twins are going to go out there and sign Mike Minor and Wade Miley. After the initial letdown, we're going to spend a couple months trying to convince ourselves that it was a "savvy" move. Alas, by May, after watching them give up 5 runs over 3+ innings in consecutive outings, we're going to start the "Should the Twins Release Mike Minor"? headlines here on Twins Daily and start arguing with each other about whether or not Balazovic is ready to be called up. Regretful things will be said, warning points will be given......but then Buxton will get hurt and thankfully distract everyone from the miserable pitching situation until the trade deadline rolls around. 

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

He's the perfect choice, even with risk, as the books are mostly clean, and will be again in 2024, even with an extension or maybe two. Give Rodon 3 or 4yrs at $25M and make it happen.

Gausman and Ray signed 5/110 and 5/115 and Rodon make 22 last season. Can't see him settling for a 3 or 4 year contract.

17 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Easy to argue

The Marlins while absolutely needing OF production improvement already have 3 OF guys (De La Cruz, Soler, Sanchez) on the roster with a higher OPS than Max Kepler plus Avisail Garcia under contract for the next 4 years plus 2 decently ranked prospects on the 40 man roster (Bleday, Burdick). 

How does Max Kepler move the needle for them? 

 

Only if they have a turntable with instructions in German

19 hours ago, gman said:

I don't think the Twins sign or trade for any starter with less than 3 years team control. They currently have 3 of the 4 starters named above with only 1 year of control. If the #5 spot is not used to develop an in house starter, then next winter could easily look as bad as last winter.  They may focus on trying to sign Gray and Mahle to multi year deals with the #5 spot going to Ober to start with.

Personally, I would sign the 2 best relief pitchers on the market and focus on developing the best pen in baseball. Go with our current starters and dominate the later innings with the pen. We're already 70% of the way there and relief pitchers are less expense on long contracts than starters and easier to turnover year after year.

I wish I could more than 'like' these comments, gman.  

I don't know why Rocco removes starters when he does.  What I do believe, however, that if this is his game plan they need to rework their entire pitching plan.  If starters are going to only pitch 4-5 innings, max, then they should transition to a four man rotation.  As I read here yesterday I think, develop at least three relievers who are able to pitch 2-3 innings.  Then, turn the game over to the late inning guys in the 7th or 8th innings.  If they don't develop those long guys, they will again burn out the bullpen and games will be lost in the late innings.

Thanks for a good topic Ted, this really got the comments rolling!!  I'm pretty much in the tony&rodney/Doc Bauer camp on this one.  First, you can never have too much pitching, especially at the rate our pitchers get hurt.  But I think much like last season with Buxton the #1 issue needing to be settled, Correa is the #1 issue this off season and nothing much could or should happen until that is resolved.  

I think the Twins have a pretty decent idea what the price for Correa will be, but you just never know.  I certainly didn't expect him to land with the Twins last off season.  While I understand the idea of Urshela playing some SS before Lewis is healthy I'm not one to go that direction.  I like Gio at 3B for one more year.  If Correa doesn't work out, I'm O.K. with kicking the tires on Bogaerts, or possibly settling on Kiner-Falefa or either Mondesi/Lopez from the Royals.  

With the exception of the Rogers trade to San Diego (which still could be a plus if Paddock can get healthy and return to expected form) I thought the FO did a pretty good job.  I like the acquisitions of Mahle, Gray, Julio Lopez.  Each has a meaningful spot/role on our team going forward.  The pitcher I would target is Carlos Rodon for all the obvious reasons and he's actually LEFT-HANDED !!  

Kepler's trade value is just too low and at this stage of his career he's a perfect fit for a 4th outfielder and late inning defense.  I've been saying that with Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Max something has to give.  If the Twins fail to land Rodon (but maybe even if they do) I package Larnach and other pieces to Miami for Pablo Lopez and maybe a bullpen piece they are willing to part with.  We have an overabundance of LH hitting OF'ers and Miami has an overabundance of pitchers.  Let's make a deal !!  

We still need a dependable catcher.  I'm sorry, Jeffers is a backup.  Toronto has top prospect Gabe Moreno, Jansen and Kirk.  Make a deal for Jansen or Kirk.  Maybe Atlanta wants to make William Contreras their #1 catcher.  What would it take to get d'Arnaud ?  Please, just fix the catcher position.