Doctor Gast

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato
THE GOOD
In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup.
Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. 
But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently.
We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing.
Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence.
Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first.
Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline.
Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects.
THE BAD
As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. 
 
Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages.  
Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons.
Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff.
It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong.
The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year.
Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer.
Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. 
The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. 
"We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” 
They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.)
Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash.
The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect.

Gilberto Celestino was acquired from Houston in the July 2018 Ryan Pressly trade. The Twins saw a raw but physically gifted outfielder who has steadily made his way up to the majors since. The fact that Celestino was able to do so speaks to his raw athletic ability above all else, as the last few years have included some difficult obstacles. Unfortunately, it appears he’s hit yet another significant roadblock this spring.
Celestino is a tiring topic for many fans. He hasn’t hit at the big-league level and has a history of mental mistakes, which has resulted in him being written off by some despite the fact that he’s still just 24 years old. As with all struggling players, there’s context.
It’s easy to look back and forget that Celestino was promoted directly from Double-A early in the 2021 season. He had played just 21 games at the level. Of course, that was after the 2020 season in which he played no games. And in 2019? He ended that season with eight games at High-A Fort Myers. 
The Twins had a need for center field depth, and Celestino was the best option available. For what it’s worth, he looked every bit the part defensively and has continued to do so. Unfortunately, he paired his defensive value with a .136/.177/.288 slash line in the MLB in 2021, which eventually led to a demotion to his first Triple-A stint. It was then that Celestino flashed his offensive upside, slashing .290/.384/.443. It earned him another shot in the big leagues to begin 2022. He started out hot before falling off a cliff at the plate. In 122 games, Celestino was 18% below the league-average hitter.
Despite his defense remaining pristine, the Twins had made up their mind that Celestino had to try to make up for lost development time not only from his rushed debut but from his missed 2020 COVID season in the minors. They traded for Michael A. Taylor to be the primary rigright-handedckup in center field. It was a welcomed development because of the prospect of Celestino finding his bat again in Triple-A and possibly developing into more of a solid future MLB player. 
Because of the development Celestino clearly needs, his recent injury hurts despite the fact that he had little to no chance to begin 2023 with the Twins. Taylor is a one-year rental and it was likely Celestino would again take over that role in the coming years. While this is still possible, Celestino will be behind to start the season after tearing the UCL in his thumb and likely missing 6-8 weeks. The hits just keep coming for the Twins young center fielder. 
Celestino may very well still play a role in the 2023 Twins season at some point. Injuries or just flat-out performance by the center fielder in St. Paul could force the issue down the stretch. The Twins are still hopeful that he can develop into a quality Major League player, but more seasoning is needed and the recent injury has put the possibility on hold. 
Before looking at his surface numbers and deciding Celestino isn’t a piece of the Twins future, just consider the path he took to get here and how much of a testament it is to his raw talent that he could still right the ship. Here’s hoping that Gilberto Celestino catches a break in 2023.
 

Projected Starter: Christian Vázquez
Likely Backup: Ryan Jeffers
Depth: Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, Chance Sisco
Prospects: Chris Williams, Noah Cardenas
THE GOOD
Acquiring a veteran catcher was a top priority for the Twins this offseason, and they got their guy, signing Vázquez to three-year, $30 million deal as arguably the second-best free agent at the position. The 32-year-old could hardly be described as a star, but that's not what the Twins were seeking: they wanted stability following a season where they enjoyed very little of it behind the plate.
Vázquez has had a few standout seasons, highlighted by a 2019 campaign where he slashed .276/.320/.477 with 23 home runs for Boston, but the Twins would be perfectly content with a repeat of 2022: average offense (99 OPS+) and steady defense combined with reliable availability. 
The Twins continue to believe in Jeffers as their future behind the plate, but the presence of Vázquez means they don't need to entirely plan around that scenario in the short term, which is probably wise given how things have gone for Jeffers over the past two seasons. 
While the righty-swinging Vázquez doesn't provide a platoon advantage, he's much more capable against right-handed pitchers and should allow the Twins to play Jeffers more to his strength against lefties, against whom he's slashed .263/.344/.450 in his career. 
Both are considered very solid receivers who pitchers like to work with, giving the Twins a more consistent level of quality behind the plate after Gary Sánchez (still unsigned) caught 714 innings mostly out of necessity last season.
THE BAD
The Twins really need to hope Vázquez can maintain his record of staying healthy, because an injury could put the Twins right back into a familiar spot of grasping for answers behind the plate.
Their depth was so sparse last year that when Jeffers went down for an extended period, they were forced to run out Caleb Hamilton for a few games and eventually acquired no-hit veteran Sany León from Cleveland's Triple-A team. He became more or less the primary starter.
Minnesota has built out its experienced upper-level depth a bit with Wolters, Greiner, and Cisco, but those three combined to play four games in the majors last year. Meanwhile, there's no position in the Twins organization with less in the way of immediate pipeline impact. As discussed in this year's top prospect recap, catcher continues to be an area of extreme scarcity in this system.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The front office desperately needed to strengthen the catcher position this past offseason, and while they did, it could still hardly be described as a strength. Although I guess that depends on your assessment of Jeffers. 
In some eyes, he could be viewed as one of the best backup catchers in the game – a still-developing impact starter who now has the luxury of coming along slowly with an established vet splitting time. If both guys stay healthy and Jeffers takes that next step, the Twins will have a catching setup that is the envy of the league. 
The thing is, it's hard to count on that. Jeffers has seen his OPS drop from .791 in a strong rookie campaign to .670 in 2021 to .648 last year, and has struggled to stay healthy. You don't have to squint to see the potential of a two-way asset – I was reminded of his raw power while watching him repeatedly hit absolute tanks in BP last week – but the 25-year-old is already inching toward arbitration without even a 1-WAR season to his credit.
Losing either of their top two backstops would force the Twins to delve into their murky depth, and while Vázquez has thankfully been pretty durable in the past, he also turns 33 this season.

Last month, Twins Daily posted our Top 30 Twins prospects. You won’t find Travis Adams ’ name in it. Of the 10 Twins Daily writers that provided their Top 30 Twins prospects, Adams appeared on just one person’s list, and that was at #28. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 30 Twins prospects. His name does not appear among the Top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. MLB.com posted an article that mentioned 11 players to follow outside of the Top 30. No, Adams wasn’t mentioned. 
Adams was not a huge prospect growing up in southern California and attending Palm Desert High School. Several of his teammates from high school are playing pro ball, and more played college baseball too. In a tournament, his team played one game against Royce Lewis and his JSerra teammates. 
 
He didn’t have many scholarship offers coming out of high school, but he was thrilled when Sacramento State offered him because he loved that part of the state and had family there. Adams grew up a Giants fan and enjoyed watching Barry Bonds, Buster Posey, and some of those strong San Francisco teams. 
“They were my first and only offer. I wanted to give the opportunity to them. I was still early in my development. I was still small. I was only throwing 85. They believed in me at a young age.” 
However, he matured, got bigger and stronger, and went to a school with an opportunity to pitch right away. As a freshman, he pitched in 15 games which included nine starts. He made four starts in 2020 before Covid canceled the season. He went 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. 
Following his sophomore season, Adams played in the Northwoods League for Wisconsin Rapids. 
“That was super fun, getting to travel and go out to Wisconsin and be with a host family. It was my first time playing summer ball and being with a host family, so it was totally different for me. I had an absolute blast. I enjoyed playing every day. It felt like minor-league baseball.” He continued, “The atmosphere and the fans we had there were great. It was a blast with all the guys I got to play with from all over the country and from different schools.” 
He made 14 starts in his junior season and went 6-3. In his three seasons at Sacramento State, Adams tossed 151 innings. He had 130 strikeouts with a remarkable 25 walks (1.5 BB/9).  
The scouts attended most of his games with their radar guns behind home plate. He also went to the combine and met with a lot of teams. He recalls going through a physical with the Twins there, but in general, the Twins didn’t show more, or maybe even as much, interest as other teams. 
“I really didn’t talk to the Twins very much. I was actually shocked on draft day when I got the phone call from them. There really wasn’t much contact between me and them prior to the draft.” 
He was at his parents' home in southern California, surrounded by family, some friends, and his girlfriend. When he got the call from the Twins and heard his name on the online draft, his phone started to blow up with calls and text messages. “It was just a great and blessed day,” he recalls. 
Adams quickly reported to Fort Myers, did some physicals, signed, and then began life as a professional. While he pitched in one game toward the end of the 2021 season, that draft year is used to let those college pitchers get some rest and learn about how the Twins work, the stats and technology they use, and develop relationships with players and coaches. 
He noted that he appreciated the value of the Trackman system over the Rapsodo system he had used in college. 
He specifically liked using the Force Plate Mound to see how his body moves and handles various stresses. Some of the things he has worked on throughout the offseason, mechanical improvements to increase velocity and consistency, are based on lessons learned from that technology. 
He began the 2022 season in Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and went 4-5 with a 3.50 ERA. In 69 1/3 innings, he walked 15 batters and struck out 69. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids to end the season and made seven starts. In 31 1/3 innings, he walked 11 and struck out 39 batters. 
To do the math for you, Adams had 108 strikeouts and 26 walks over 100 2/3 innings. He was one of seven pitchers to reach 100 minor-league innings in 2022. His 22 starts were tied with Simeon Woods Richardson, just one behind the 23 starts made by Louie Varland and Brent Headrick. 
Level-headed, the 23-year-old right-hander said, “I learned that you just have to take it start by start. If you have a bad start, you can’t get too low on it. If you have a great start, you just have to be even-keel throughout the entire season. If you get too high on the highs and too low on the lows, it’s going to be very hard on you and stressful.” 
With a solid first full minor-league season under his belt, he entered the offseason with some things to work on. There were a couple of mechanical things that he focused on to help him as he moves forward in his career. 
He throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He says the fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” 
Minor-league camp officially opened on March 1st, but he has been in Fort Myers since mid-January getting himself ready for the 2023 season. 
And now that he has that great control and command, and a fastball that hit 97 mph late in the season in Cedar Rapids last year, don’t be surprised when you see him rise up the prospect rankings at Twins Daily and other places too. 
For more Twins Daily content on Travis Adams, click here.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)
So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.
(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Larnach   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor   RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Moran Bench  Gordon   RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.
Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.
Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.
Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.
Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.
This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.
And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.
So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.
So here’s the new chart.
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Solano   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor   RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Alcala/Megill Bench  Gordon   LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 
So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.
Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)
Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. 
 
The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?
Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.
For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.
Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)
In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. 
 
Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:
Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.
The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:
Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field.  In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.  
While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.
How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."
"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."
Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.
At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.
"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler  ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."
You don't say?
 
Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."
While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. 
As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.

The Twins triumphed over the Atlanta Braves, 10-7, in Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers on Tuesday afternoon. It was Tyler Mahle's first game since shoulder fatigue shut down his 2022 season, but his stuff looked great, with velocity exceeding last year's average fastball velocity. The Twins jumped on an early lead thanks to two infielders - Edouard Julien and Willi Castro - who are likely slated for St. Paul. But the postgame talk with manager Rocco Baldelli revealed some injuries that were reflected in the game's lineup. John Bonnes has the details from the game.
twins-braves-landscape.mp4  
 

Gone are the days of Terry Mulholland. At least in Minnesota, you will rarely see a strange man sitting at the end of the bullpen bench who will, five times a month, run in to pitch four or five innings of low-leverage relief, only to retreat into the shadows until the next week, when his arm is needed again.
The Twins tried to employ such a pitcher in 2021 when Randy Dobnak broke camp with the club as a long reliever. However, the team struggled to find him regular work, which had two adverse effects—it used a bullpen spot, and Dobnak (who was very much in their plans fresh off his five-year extension) could not continue to develop with the erratic schedule.
That is not to say that the team doesn’t send guys out to eat innings occasionally; it simply works differently in the modern game. Instead of retreating to the end of the bench, they typically ride the green line back to St. Paul in favor of a fresh arm.
The bullpen seems set in most people’s minds, with some hierarchy featuring Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill—each of whom has seen a good deal of Major League work. However, all are considered short relievers to one degree or another.
This concentration of short relievers became a point of consternation in 2022, as the bullpen was stretched to cover four to six innings most nights. The team tried not to throw players on back-to-back games either, and you don’t need to be a math major to understand why that’s untenable with an eight-man bullpen.
Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli doesn’t want to face that again this year, and a long reliever is a big part of that. “I personally think our best bullpen has, and always has, one option that can give you 50-75 pitches out of the bullpen. I’d like to carry someone like that at all times.”, Rocco said Friday to Twins Daily’s John Bonnes and the other Twins beat writers.  “Is that going to be the case? No, we probably won’t be able to do that in all 162. But I think having someone like in the vast majority of our games will be very helpful. I also think we have those guys.”
Given that, we may see the likes of Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, or Brent Headrick called up to do something similar. Sands, Winder, Henriquez, and Headrick may be prime candidates, as they seem most likely to be relievers eventually (though Henriquez is also dealing with a sore elbow.). Calling a player up like this is more the exception than the rule when it comes to divvying up innings, though.
Although the Twins could roster someone like Dobnak or Sands to be a-low leverage option, it’s debatable whether that will happen practically. I’m interested in speculating on how the Twins might get bulk work from this group—even if that doesn’t mean employing a true fulltime long reliever. I dug through 2022 usage patterns for Twins relievers with more than 15 innings and five relief appearances.Four types of usage profiles emerged in doing this. 
Short Relief
The first is true short relief. Players like Joe Smith, Thielbar, López, and Michael Fulmer rarely threw more than an inning, and none had an appearance of two or more innings. They were also the most likely to be used on back-to-back days, with each over 20% of their appearances on zero days’ rest.
Long Relief
On the other side of the spectrum were pitchers predominantly used in long relief. There were two of those guys—Sands and Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez threw five relief outings, pitching 5, 3.1, 3, 3, and 1.2 innings. Had he been on the roster all season, he would have been a true long reliever, but he only filled this role in September after rosters were expanded. However, the Twins signed him as a minor league free agent this winter, so he is another option to fill this role at least partially.
Multi-Inning Relief
Then we get to the guys who were used somewhere in the middle, which is probably the modern version of a long reliever. Some of these guys were green line regulars, like Moran and Jharel Cotton. They threw more than one inning between 25% and 50% of the time, often when ahead by more than four runs or trailing.
Although Moran and Cotton were sent down after multi-inning appearances several times, Trevor Megill remained on the roster after his initial call-up in 2022, despite having options remaining and throwing more than an inning 30% of the time. Megill’s usage was a bit all over the place in terms of leverage, and he may present the biggest question mark regarding his role for the 2023 bullpen, assuming he breaks camp with the team.
Role Changers
Finally, we have a group of pitchers that fluctuated between groups. The most pleasant surprises last year were Durán and Jax. Both players began the season as freshly-converted starters pitching multiple innings in the middle innings, but they transformed into predominantly one-inning guys.
Both threw more than an inning about a quarter of the time, but most of those appearances came at the beginning of the year. For example, Jax recorded more than three outs just thrice in the last 100 games of the season.
In the opposite direction, Emilio Pagán and Tyler Duffey began the season as single-inning options. They were converted into Cotton-esque innings-eaters by the end of the season due to performance reasons. Pagán, in particular, was an interesting case, as he took on more innings but was also relied on to throw in back-to-back games quite often. If there is one positive trait most can agree on, it’s that Pagán possesses a rubber arm.
So What Will We See?
At the beginning of the season, at least, the betting money would have to be on Megill, Moran, and Pagán being run out for multi-inning appearances. Suppose Pagán continues his improvements from late in the year (ironically in his new, low-leverage role). In that case, he may be in line for a hybrid role, lower on the bullpen hierarchy, but still trusted in some close games, depending on the rest status of other arms.
Many fans are clamoring for Moran to be used as a second lefty rather than a long reliever, and if he develops control, he may be more suited for that role. Similarly, if Megill stops leaving balls middle-middle, he can ride his 100 MPH fastball a long way.
Bulk innings may be given to whichever arm is freshest from that group, and if one emerges as a primary or secondary setup man, they may actually lead the bullpen in innings, taking the Griffin Jax path.
There may be a rotating cast of waiver claims, semi-prospects, and minor league veterans at the end of the pen, soaking up innings before returning to St. Paul, or being jettisoned into the sun, never to be seen or heard from again. However, between Pagán, Moran, and Megill, the Twins may have a group who can fill multiple innings at a time while also seeing a moderate amount of medium-to-high-leverage innings.
 
 

If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. 
There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring.
His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark.
1: My first impressions of the pitch clock
The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. 
To me it seemed like ... not a big deal?
It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact).
I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 
2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches
Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with.
Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup.
Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well.
3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff
The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways.
Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two.
For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game.
4: Big bases come in handy
The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday.
Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. 
I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last.
5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily
Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. 
There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly.
Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. 
The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). 
On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one.

Throughout the next five months, we'll be doing all we can to help keep your informed on the player pool for the MLB Draft. The Twins were the biggest movers in the new lottery system and are now bound to select a player that should immediately become a Top 100 prospect in baseball. Last year's draft was especially hitter-heavy at the top as only four pitchers went in the top 19 picks, which included a huge surprise at #3 (Kumar Rocker) and another huge surprise at #7 (Cade Horton). This year's draft has a better mix. And that should be a lot of fun for Twins fans.
Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Dollander enters the season as most pundit's top collegiate pitching prospect and a likely Top 5 pick. As we've seen repeatedly in the past, trajectories of college pitchers can change in a hurry.  In his debut this past weekend, Dollander threw 81 pitches (only 47 strikes), but recorded seven strikeouts. His numbers weren't great in 4 2/3 innings, as he allowed two runs (including a home run) and walked and hit a batter. His impressive fastball was reportedly in the mid-90s consistently but never hit triple figures like it can. It's only his first start, though, so there is plenty of time left.
"Time" has been a huge friend to Dollander. As a 6' 3", 180 pound high-schooler, Dollander went undrafted and pitched his freshman year for Georgia Southern. That time as an Eagle taught Dollander how to eat and lift weights properly, improving his body (adding 20 pounds) and striking out 64 in 49 innings. He did walk 28, but got plenty of interest in the transfer portal, including from the team he shut down in his collegiate debut, Tennessee. 
Now entering his second season as a Volunteer, Dollander is considered by some to be the college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg and that's high praise. The comp list beyond that is impressive: Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Jack Leiter. Any time you have the ability to add a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, you have to strongly consider it.
Paul Skenes, RHP LSU
Like Doogie says below, Skenes struck out 12 in six innings in his season debut.  Skenes (6'6", 235) also has a big mid-90s fastball which nearly reaches triple-digits. Since arriving at LSU, Skenes has changed his slider by working with noted slider-guy Wes Johnson (sound familiar?) and it's getting rave reviews.
Skenes, like current Twin Griffin Jax, attended the Air Force out of high school. While Jax remained at the academy through graduation and his commitment to the military delayed and interrupted his professional career, Skenes will not have any extenuating commitments. Cadets are allowed to leave before beginning classes their junior year without penalty. 
His professional future is brightest on the mound, but Skenes is also pretty good in the batters box. In those two years at Air Force, Skenes hit .367 while smacking 24 home runs with 81 RBI. You're probably thinking, "oh, so he plays first base too" and you're not completely wrong, because he's only done a little bit of that. Aside from pitching, he's been primarily a catcher(!) who committed to college to do just that. 
There is no doubt it will be interesting to follow Skenes through this season at LSU. If all goes well, there's no reason he wouldn't be in the conversation for the 5th pick (or the 1st pick for that matter). 
Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
The final pitcher that will be mentioned today struck out six in five innings over the weekend, while allowing two runs on four hits and two walks. Waldrep transferred to Florida from Southern Miss and has an electric fastball (96-99 mph), a high-80s slider and a mid-80s 12-to-6 curveball.
Waldrep helped lead Southern Miss to the Super Regionals before fleeing to the SEC. An All-American, Waldrep struck out 156 in 106 1/3 innings in two seasons (one as a starter) as a Golden Eagle. Slightly smaller than Dollander and much smaller than Skenes, Waldrep still has good size (6' 2, 205) and hails from the noted hot-bed state of Georgia. 
Pitching for a Top-10 team, there's no reason to think that Waldrep won't get plenty of opportunities to pitch in front of big crowds, lots of scouts and in big games for the Gators this year. We could certainly see his trajectory trend upwards.
While these are just three names to follow for the season, there will be many, many more. The SEC, specifically and as seen above, is littered with potential top-10 picks. 
Dylan Crews, OF, LSU and Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida are largely considered to be the two best draft-eligible college hitting prospects. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss is arguably the top shortstop prospect. Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt is the most exciting prospect in all of college baseball with elite speed and the ability to put bat on ball, but Ben Revere-type power. (Heck, that might not be a terrible floor comp for Bradfield). The whole conference seems abnormally loaded (and not just for the 2023 draft either).
Twins Daily will keep pumping out draft content through the spring and into the summer leading up to the mid-July draft.

When Austin Martin was drafted fifth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2020 MLB First-Year Player Draft, it was considered one of the steals of the draft. Martin was viewed as  the best pure hitter in the draft, and most people thought he would go number two overall behind Spencer Torkelson.
Fast forward to July 2021. The Twins were having a disappointing season at 43-61 and decided to sell off some talent at the deadline. They accomplished this task by trading starting pitcher Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays in exchange for Simeon Woods Richardson and Martin, the number 16 overall prospect then, according to MLB.com. When Martin entered the organization following the trade, he immediately became the Twins top prospect, jumping everyone in the farm system including Royce Lewis. Martin was considered by all an elite prospect as recently as last spring, so it’s difficult to give up on him following just one down year.
Martin's ups and downs are well documented, and he has tumbled off most top prospect boards, but does he have the ability to re-enter the conversation of future Twins infield studs with Lewis and Brooks Lee? Can he use spring training to prove that he belongs?
For the most part, we won't talk much about the past, but Martin did finish 2022 on a high note, attributing an .827 OPS in September. Another encouraging area for Martin happens to be an eerily similar high note experienced by Lewis in 2019 when he was seen as a failing prospect, which was his performance in the Arizona Fall League.
 
 
The Arizona Fall League takes place after the standards season in the minors wraps up and  allows prospects to get extra games before the winter. In 2019, Lewis participated in the AFL and won the league MVP award with a slash line of .353/.411/.565 (.975). His performance was exciting for Twins fans because he struggled at the plate in the minors that season. As he started to slide down top prospect boards, there was worry that the once number-one overall pick might be a bust. In the AFL, Lewis experimented with eliminating his high leg kick, and the results were promising.
With the 2020 minor league season canceled and Lewis tearing his ACL in 2021, the AFL was the last action we saw from him leading into the 2022 season. 
Although Lewis was limited to 46 games due to another tear in the same ACL, he mashed in 2022. Whether in Triple-A or the MLB, Lewis was explosive at the plate, putting to rest the doubt that he could live up to the lofty expectations that come with being drafted number one overall.
In 2021, Martin experienced similar success as Lewis once had in the AFL. In 21 games, Martin put together a .374/.454/.482 (.936) slash line and added 10 stolen bases. He adjusted his approach at the plate and hitting mechanics, and although the sample size was small, the results showed immediately.
 
 
Martin is undoubtedly riding some positive momentum heading into spring training. Still, a quick look at the future outlook of the Twins' defense shows a rather crowded group that may make it difficult for Martin to find a permanent spot. His top two positions are shortstop and center field, but those two spots are held down at the major league level by Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the next six years.
Lewis, Lee, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff also have to have assumed roles in the Twins' plans, but there is something that Martin possesses that could make him more valuable to the team and give him a place should he prove he belongs.
Martin is a phenomenal athlete with enough versatility to play anywhere on the field. If he can get himself back on track and force the Twins to find a role for him, he would excellently fit the mold of a super-utility man, just as Marwin Gonzalez did for the Twins in 2019 and 2020. Finding a defensive home for Martin may be easy, as he possesses the athleticism and versatility to play almost anywhere on the field.
Spring Training 2023 will be a very interesting and important one for Austin Martin. He is a supremely talented baseball player with plenty of tools that could make him an above-average everyday player at the MLB level. Martin has the opportunity over the next two months to prove that his adjustments in the AFL were legitimate and that he possesses defensive versatility. If he can do so, he could force himself back into the Twins' plans and re-enter the conversation of top prospect with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee.

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.
The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 
There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.
Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.
 

 
 
Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 
The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  
 
 
While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 
His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

The purpose of these rankings is to take stock of the Twins farm system leading up to the start of the season. This year we asked 10 different Twins Daily writers, all of whom follow the minors closely, to share their choices for the current top 30 Twins prospects. Then we aggregated them into the list that's been gradually rolled out here over the past few weeks. 
This is a snapshot in time. Prospect rankings are never static, and in order to better follow the movement that occurs over time, last year we launched the Twins Daily Prospect Tracker. It's updated monthly throughout the season with new stats, insights, and re-rankings. I recommend bookmarking that page and checking back often if you love to follow the next generation of Twins talent.
For today, we're going to dive deep on that next generation and how it's shaping the future of the franchise. First, here's a rundown of this year's top 20 rankings – you can click on each player's name to find a profile on him from one of our writers.
Minnesota Twins 2023 Top 20 Prospects

20. Misael Urbina, OF: Has come along slowly since signing as a top int'l talent out of DR in 2018, but still 20 with big tools.
19. Jose Rodriguez, OF: Opened eyes with a spectacular and rare power display in the Dominican Summer League.
18. Tanner Schobel, 2B: 2022 second-round pick saw his college power spike evaporate in pro debut, fading his hype.
17. Ronny Henriquez, RHP: Slider-slinging 22-year-old seems destined to break through in full-time relief role.
16. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Stellar track record keeps him on the radar following a disastrous year at Triple-A.
15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Maybe the best raw stuff in the organization, but TJ surgery will sideline him again this year.
14. Noah Miller, SS: Outstanding fielder needs to find some semblance of offensive game other than drawing walks.
13. David Festa, RHP: Former 13th-rounder's domination of Single-A sparks hope for another deep-draft pitching find.
12. Yasser Mercedes, OF: Club's biggest int'l signing last summer flashed all five tools in highly impressive rookie-ball debut.
11. Matt Wallner, OF: His off-the-charts raw power will play in the bigs if he can stay relatively disciplined at plate.
10. Austin Martin, SS: Huge dropoff after topping this list a year ago, but the speedy OBP specialist can rebound.
9. Louie Varland, RHP: Continues to outperform his stuff, but also, the stuff continues to get better for hard-working SP.
8. Jose Salas, INF: Twins picked up a dynamic young athlete via Arraez trade in this versatile switch-hitting infielder.
7. Connor Prielipp, LHP: Slid to Twins in second round of latest draft coming off elbow surgery, but has frontline SP traits.
6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP: Reached majors at age 22 following lights-out campaign between AA/AAA.
5. Edouard Julien, 2B: He has raked in the minors with an ultra-patient approach, and is knocking on MLB door.
4. Marco Raya, RHP: Word is out on the best-kept secret in Twins system, who dazzled in pro debut at Fort Myers.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF: Flashed superstar talent and production during full-season debut cut short by knee injury.
2. Royce Lewis, SS: Cemented legitimacy during a convincing return to action before being struck by another torn ACL.
1. Brooks Lee, SS: Drafted eighth overall with a bat that pretty much looked MLB-ready as soon as he reached the pro field.
A True Deadlock at the Top
The most fascinating dynamic of this year's rankings was the choice between Lee and Lewis for number one. I cannot possibly overstate how accurate the word "deadlock" is in describing the lack of separation between these high-end talents in our ranking process.
The results from tabulating our panel of 10 voters placed the two in an exact tie: five voters picked Lewis, five picked Lee. In order to try and swing things one way or the other, we reached out for off-the-record opinions on the matter from a variety of trusted sources: scouting contacts, prospect analysts, baseball people inside the Twins organization and out. 
You know what came back? Pretty much a 50/50 split exactly. Almost everyone expressed a variation of the same sentiment: It's really hard to compare the two directly, because it all comes down to the upside & risk versus safety & floor equation. "If I had to choose, I guess I'd go with X."
We all want to dream on the lofty upside Lewis still possesses: the potential for an electric power/speed combo from shortstop or center field, combined with character and charisma on the Jeter Scale. But no one can ignore the realities of a career that's been sabotaged by injuries, the latest of which undeniably clouds his future outlook.
How do you properly account for this in projecting him as a major-league player? And how do you compare him to someone like Lee, who probably has a lower overall ceiling but also has one of the highest floors you could ask for in a prospect? Lee looked so polished and adept during his pro debut after signing last year that he found his way to Wichita for the Double-A playoffs and was up to the task.
Lee makes it look really easy, and that's the highest compliment you can pay a 21-year-old barely out of college and facing experienced pro competition.
Ultimately, we went with Lee as our choice for as the top Twins prospect of 2023, because the feedback we received seemed to tilt ever-so-slightly in that direction and because the majority of publications we chart our rankings against – MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic (both Keith Law and Aaron Gleeman) – have Lee in front of Lewis.
But if there's a strong consensus to be found around these two it's this: the Twins are very lucky to have them both.
Restocking the Low Minors with Upside
Lee and Lewis both contribute to a robust top end of the pipeline, joining the likes of Julien, Woods Richardson, Varland, Martin, and Wallner as quality prospects who could essentially be ready to make an MLB impact at any time. But a number of breakthroughs from recent draft classes and recent high-profile international signings have populated the lower levels with promising young talent.
This was missing last year, when essentially all 10 of our top prospects were in the high minors and approaching MLB-readiness, save for Chase Petty who got traded shortly after we published. The emergences of teenaged players like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Raya, and Mercedes – bolstered by the acquisition of Salas in the Luis Arraez trade – have done wonders for the lower levels of this system, and the franchise's long-term talent landscape.
Still Lacking Catcher Talent
The lack of standout catching prospects in Minnesota's system is something I noted last year, even before Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt were traded away. It's now even more conspicuous. The Twins have sought to backfill at the MLB level with veterans like Gary Sánchez and now Christian Vázquez, but the future of this position continues to hinge on Ryan Jeffers, who has proven little at age 25.
Not only were there zero catching prospects in our top 20, but if you zoom out to the top 30, none are found in the 21-through-30 range either. The highest I've seen a catcher ranked by anyone is Noah Cardenas, who was 25th on Gleeman's top 40 list, but Cardenas was profiled there as a "future backup with some starter upside." 
Another tough year for Jeffers, with Vázquez under control through 2025 but turning 33 in August, would leave the organization's outlook pretty flimsy behind the plate unless new names emerge.
Rebound Scenarios Present X-factors
Aside from some of the big risers, the most stark movements from last year's rankings were the dramatic downfalls of Martin (#1 last year, #10 this year) and Balazovic (#4 last year, #16 this year). Those are tough blows for the system and help explain why it's generally viewed as middling compared to the league. (Law ranked them 19th out of 30 organizations at The Athletic earlier this month.)
The flip side is this: it's only one season, and these players are not far removed from being viewed as viable (and imminent) difference-makers with convincing track records. Martin and Balazovic are legit talents, and both will be 24 this year with ample experience in the high minors. A turnaround for either could quickly thrust them into the big-league picture.
Who's Your Pick to Click in 2023?
I asked this at the conclusion of last year's recap article, so I'll send it your way again. Who is your pick to click and make a huge jump in the rankings in 2023? 
Last year I the name I submitted was Marco Raya, and he went from Honorable Mentions to #4 on our list, so that went well. This year I will go with Keoni Cavaco, who was merely an Honorable Mention this year having fallen off the radar in three unproductive seasons since being drafted 13th overall in 2019.
Cavaco wasn't good last year, but he did seem to take a step forward and he remains an athletic and toolsy infielder. I like him to escape the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and put together a strong age-21 season that vaults him back into the top 20. 
How about you?
Past Rankings
Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2017 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2016 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2015 Top Prospects Twins Daily Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS. 
Baseball-Reference Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS. 

I'll be honest, it sucks to write articles like these. When analyzing the impact players are likely to have, I much prefer to talk about guys with something to prove performance-wise, because it feels more actionable and controllable.
Alas, it's impossible to talk about this year's team without addressing all of the cascading injury concerns that carry over from a 2022 campaign besieged by heath issues. One of the reasons we've all been so adamantly looking forward to the start of spring training is because we actually get some insight into these players' statuses, as opposed to endless speculating and hoping.
Granted, the insights we're gaining at this very early stage of camp, with players still arriving and settling in, are very limited in their significance. But they're something. And for what it's worth, there's been a considerable amount of reporting and updates around these topics because – like we said – everyone understands the magnitude of importance.
Here's what we we've learned so far about several pivotal players with injury concerns.
Alex Kirilloff
Situation: Kirilloff's rookie season in 2021 was cut short by a wrist injury that required surgery, and his 2022 season was again cut short by issues in the same wrist, requiring a more invasive and serious surgery.
We start with Kirilloff because he is, in my opinion, the single most impactful health question mark for the Twins this year. The variance of outcomes here is wild: Either the second surgery doesn't take and Kirilloff is forever doomed to be a mere figment of his true potential, or he finally gains comfort at the plate and blossoms into the MVP-caliber hitter we've all envisioned.
We're not going to be able to draw any kind of substantive conclusions until Kirilloff actually starts getting some game action and taking competitive swings – even then, we might not know a ton, since he seemed to feel OK around this time last year – but for now, the news is positive. Rocco Baldelli told reporters there was "no setback, no concern" attached to the 25-year-old at this point and he's "probably in as good of a spot as they've seen him coming into camp."
Even if things are going smoothly, I would expect the Twins to take things very slowly with Kirilloff, holding him out of exhibition contests until there's full confidence he's in a good place. It wouldn't shock me if he was held back from the MLB roster at the start of the season, even without setbacks, to be totally honest. The club seems committed to a very cautious approach in these situations, as we'll see. 
Trevor Larnach
Situation: Larnach's second season in the majors showed the similar promise he showed in his first season, but also ended in injury like his first season. A core muscle strain suffered in late-June required surgery, recovery was slower than anticipated, and then a rehab assignment led to a cascading core injury that ended his season.
Larnach is also looking to establish himself, and also penciled into a big role for the Twins this year. He spent the offseason rehabbing a core injury with input from several doctors and trainers, and reports that he is at 100%, and hasn't even needed to see the trainer this year so far. In addition, the Twins also report him entering camp without any limitations.
Tyler Mahle
Situation: Mahle was plagued by ambiguous shoulder issues throughout the 2022 campaign – described at various junctures as soreness, weakness, and fatigue – and they shut him down shortly after he was acquired by Minnesota at the deadline. 
The unexplained nature of Mahle's 2022 shoulder malady is what makes it so hard to feel confident in a clean rebound. Each time the righty took the mound with diminished velocity and results, he expressed minimal concern. And yet, he threw only two innings after exiting his third Twins start early on August 17th, ending the season on IL.
So far this spring, the vibe around Mahle is very similar: no problems, all systems go. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the 28-year-old felt good enough at season's end to put in work at Driveline, an esteemed performance training center for pitchers.
Much like with Kirilloff, the proof will very much be in the pudding for Mahle. Can he get out on the mound and throw in the mid-90s? Can he sustain that over increasingly long starts this spring? We'll see. But for now, all signs are positive, and customarily chill.
Kenta Maeda
Situation: Maeda missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2021, and is now coming back from all the missed time at age 35, with a baseline of only 175 total innings thrown since 2019.
Maeda's inability to make it back onto the mound late last season was largely treated as a formality – the team faded from contention, why bother – but his early comments in camp suggest that he still wasn't feeling ready, one year removed from the surgery. 
The 2020 Cy Young runner-up reportedly threw 40 pitches in the bullpen on Thursday, and indicated that he already felt much better compared to where he was last September.
Topping out at 89 MPH is not a bad sign for Maeda, especially this early in the process. He's less reliant on velocity than Mahle, and in this case the real questions are around stamina and command. We'll have to see how the spring progresses to get a good read on those factors.
Royce Lewis
Situation: Lewis missed the entire 2021 season after suffering an offseason ACL tear, then made a brief but electric return to the field last year before re-tearing the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. 
It was a beautiful sight. Eight months removed from undergoing his second reconstructive right knee surgery (with a twist), reporters caught video of Lewis opening up with a relatively high-intensity sprint on the grassy side fields of Lee County Sports Complex.
Lewis still has a long way to go before he's in game shape, and his spring training activity will likely be limited to these kinds of on-the-side rehab drills, but the fact that's running comfortably at this stage is very encouraging. 
The estimated timeline for Lewis to return to the majors is "late June or July," but we'll see if a productive spring revises it on the shorter side.
Chris Paddack
Situation: He looked good in a handful of starts after being acquired from San Diego just before the 2022 season, but tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in mid-May. 
Paddack raised some eyebrows when he told reporters late last season his goal was to return to the mound in August of this year, establishing a notably longer rehab window than the 9-12 months now considered customary for TJ.
Of course, undergoing the operation for a second time already at age 26 casts recovery in a very different light, and in Paddack's case there seems to a special emphasis on taking things slow and steady.
"Because this is his second elbow surgery, Paddack is taking a conservative approach and performing each step in his rehab three months later than normal at the advice of Dr. Keith Meister," wrote Hayes for The Athletic. Indeed, Paddack shared with the beat reporters that with a second surgery, the timetable is generally moved back three months from the first Tommy John surgery. 
In the article, Paddack's quotes gave the impression that making it back at all this year is a stretch goal more than anything. “We made that clear at the beginning of this whole thing is like, ‘Hey, don’t tell me I’m not pitching,’ because I want to have some drive,” he said. “I want to have something to look forward to and then if September rolls around and we’re not ready to go, then we can address that situation when it comes.”
You wonder if the Twins players, coaches, and trainers have basically committed to setting unambitious expectations after a year where every timeline seemed to drag past initial estimates, leading to criticisms being leveled at all parties involved. 
Wouldn't be refreshing to have a few players actually beat their estimated return timelines for a change?
Jorge Alcalá
Situation: The hard-throwing righty made two April appearances for the Twins last year before being shut down due to elbow discomfort. The issue was initially deemed minor, but setbacks in recovery led to arthroscopic debridement surgery in August. 
He's been billed as fully healthy coming into spring training and was seen throwing early bullpens with no apparent inhibitions. I'll be curious to see those in-game velocity readings. However, Falvey put Alcala into the category of "starting camp with limitations" meaning they'll be careful in bringing him along slowly.
Randy Dobnak
Situation: Dobnak's Cinderella Story was disrupted by multiple pulley ligament tears in his middle right finger, preventing him from throwing effectively or without pain over the past two seasons. Since signing a five-year contract extension ahead of 2021, he's thrown 50 MLB innings with a 7.64 ERA, and is now off the 40-man roster.
Once viewed as a heartwarming success story, Dobnak has fallen off the radar due to his relentless struggles with a recurring finger injury that wreaks havoc on his ability to execute the trademark slider/sinker combo. He's no more than an afterthought in the Twins pitching plans at this point, but one that's easy to root for.
Phil MIller had a great profile on Dobnak in the Star Tribune, relaying that "his finger, though not as flexible or strong as it once was, has been pain-free all winter." The caveat there looms large, given that Dobnak was a fringy overachieving talent to begin with, but he's proven doubters wrong plenty of times before. 
"I think we're way over the hump now," Dobnak said. "I've been slinging it fine."
Jorge Polanco
Situation: Polanco went on the injured list in late August, and – despite repeated indications that his knee issue was not severe and his return was near – he never made it back before the end of the season.  
Rocco Baldelli was conspicuously reserved when asked to share where things stand with the second baseman. 
"He'll be on a slightly different schedule," Baldelli said. "We'll slowly work him back into all facets of the game ... I think he's going to end up getting a lot at-bats on the back field. I think we're going to keep it controlled for a little while until we cut him loose in these games."
On the other hand, Polanco met with reporters Saturday and said that there is no pain any more in his knee. However, he also admitted that the rehab work this offseason was extensive, that the recovery took more time than he hoped, and that he still needs to be conscious of it both on and off the field to make sure he takes care of it. 
It's likely that the next big step for him will be getting into a spring training game. That will indicate that they trust it enough for him to be full go for defensively.
Byron Buxton
Situation: Buxton was once again plagued by multiple injuries in 2022, costing him almost half the season, and the most significant was a persistent knee issue that required surgery after the season. 
He's the central storyline heading into this season and will be a primary player to follow in coming weeks. Unfortunately, we have the least information so far on Buxton, who arrived in camp on Friday and is just beginning to ramp up this weekend. Falvey address Buxton's condition, saying "There's nothing he's coming in with that's an issue" but also saying it will be a slow ramp up, similar to Polanco. 
It will be interesting to see how he's feeling and how he's moving around as the action picks up. Additionally, how will he be managed? The Twins walk a fine line between ensuring he's fully game-ready by Opening Day, while also limiting his exposure enough to minimize early wear and injury risk.
John Bonnes is in Fort Myers following closely (and I'll be making the trek down there in a week to join him) so stay tuned as we track all of these crucial spring storylines.

The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. 
There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. 
Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt?
Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. 
 
Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? 
Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. 
 
If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard.
The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. 
Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. 
After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen.
Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. 
The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. 
But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

Terry Ryan hired Mike Radcliff from the Major League Scouting Bureau in 1987 as an area scout around his home in Kansas City. A year later, he became the team’s Midwest Supervisor. In 1994, he became the Scouting Director and remained in charge of the draft through the 2007 season. Since then, he has been involved in all Player Personnel decisions. 
In short, over his 36 years with the Twins, Mike Radcliff has worked with a lot of people, a lot of area scouts, supervisors, cross-checkers and front office personnel. I asked Twins scouts what they have learned over the years from Mike Radcliff, and while they each have their own stories and memories, the themes are often the same. 
To summarize: Mike Radcliff was one of the most respected people inside the Twins organization but also around all baseball circles. 
John Manuel certainly has a unique perspective as it relates to Radcliff. Manuel was a long time writer and editor at Baseball America. He has been in the Twins pro scouting department for about the past five years. He recalls a survey that they sent out around 2006.
“I ranked the Twins prospects for the first time after the 2006 season, and that was just after Jim Callis conducted a survey of scouting directors, and 17 of the 28 voted for Mike as the best scouting director in the game.”
Manuel continued, “So I knew that when I got to do the Twins’ list, first I needed to call Mike and I knew that he would be helpful. But I didn’t know just how helpful he would be and how much I would learn from him. He talked about scouting terms not as jargon but as a way to understand baseball and players. A specific example was when he explained an “uphill” swing to me with specific examples to watch, such as Mark Teixeira, and also the downside (and upside) of such swings. It was eye-opening, and I was jealous of Jim Callis because Jim insisted on keeping Mike as a draft source, meaning that I had to keep him just as a Twins source. I would sneak draft talk into my Twins calls with him, sandwiched around Roy Williams talk after he left Cliffy’s Kansas Jayhawks for my North Carolina Tar Heels.”
Manuel had a ton of respect for Mike Radcliff and his opinion that he reached out to him before applying for the Twins scouting job. “When I stumbled into discussing a pro scouting job with the Twins, I literally gave Mike veto power over whether or not I would apply for the job. I called him the day after I had my first contact with Derek Falvey about the job and told him I would not actually apply unless he thought I would be a good fit for the organization, but he encouraged me to apply. I’m forever grateful that he thought I was worthy of being part of the organization. Now it's up to those of us who are still here to live up to the standard that he set, to get to the park early, to be last to leave, to know as much about the players involved as possible and to help the Twins acquire championship-caliber players.”
In the days following the announcement of Radcliff’s death, I reached out to scouts. One of the first I heard back from was Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting, Tim O’Neil. He joined the organization in 1994. 
Of course, I heard from him late in the evening because he had what he referred to as a “Cliffy-type day.” He scouting a 9am game that morning, then went to an alumni game at a Division I college, and then a national workout featuring “all the best high school players in the West.” 
Of Radcliff, he noted, “Mike was the smartest guy in the room, the most talented scout in the room, the hardest worker in the room, and the humblest guy in the room.  He was incredible Seth.  Died with zero enemies - zero.“ 
O’Neil continued, “No one could accurately describe Mike's work ethic and passion for the Twins. He was in a hotel 320+ nights a year, sometimes 2-3 months straight, 2-3-4 games a day, if possible. Every decision, every acquisition, every hire, promotion, release, divorce, birth, death, etc went through Mike. He genuinely cared about everyone and treated everyone with incredible respect. One interesting fact - he didn't like to shake hands, I never saw him hug anyone. But he offered more love and kindness than anyone I've ever met.”
Freddie Thon joined the organization 10 years ago as an area scout in Puerto Rico and South Florida. He is now an amateur cross-checker. 
“I knew Cliffy for a long time, but not as long as many others. I was fortunate enough to work with him on the draft side as well as on the International side. I am pretty sure that everyone will repeat this sentiment, but it’s just undeniable that his work ethic and his commitment to the Twins was A+.It simply can’t be topped.” Emphatically, Thon added, “Aside from that, I have wanted to share with people how great of a guy he was, how genuine he was with all of us younger scouts, how well he treated every single person he came across, and the fact that he was truly one of the funniest people I knew. He will be missed, but I know this group will continue to honor him for many many years.”
Mike Ruth joined Radcliff and the Twins in 1989. After years as an area scout, he has been the Midwest Supervisor for many years. He described what Radcliff meant to so many in the organization. 
“I’ve been thinking a lot about all I learned from Mike these past few days. He hired me as a young area scout 35 years ago, and I can’t begin to tell you what a privilege it has been to work with him and see up close his unfailing dedication to the Twins and more importantly the scouts, players, coaches, and staff who make up the Twins. He drafted and signed so many Twins icons (Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Perkins, etc) but his real legacy is the way he poured into so many people’s lives and the bonds he built to connect and elevate everyone in the organization and in the entire baseball world. To the scouts and the staff he was our Puckett; a guy who gave everyone around him such energy and optimism no matter what the circumstance and would carry the day in the toughest of times. If you remember as a fan what a blow it was the day Puck retired that’s how all of us are feeling today times a thousand.”
Ruth continued, “The two lessons that really stand out to me really don’t involve baseball, just how to author a life that honors the people around you and lets them feel appreciated and heard while making sure every success was shared and that his role in those successes was seen as secondary to everyone else. When you have a leader that sees life that way every day you work with them is a joy.  
When I was a young scout I was initially  impressed with all the “famous” people he knew. You couldn’t go anywhere with him that a GM, ML player or coach, national writer or broadcaster wouldn’t come up and start talking with him and he was always so generous with his willingness to introduce me and allow me into the conversation. It was very heady stuff for someone just breaking into the business and he never did it to impress, only to be inclusive. But as I got older what really impressed me and taught me the most was all the “non-famous” people he knew around the game. It would have been easy for him to isolate himself among the elite and live in that world exclusively like many do. Instead he built relationships with the first-year scouts, not only with the Twins but anyone who just wanted to talk about the game and learn. With the interns and people just breaking into the game. The college assistant coaches. The office staff at the minor league affiliates. The beat writers and bloggers. The people who cleaned the offices at Target Field. If you wanted to talk and learn, he always made time and job title or status in the game was never a barrier to building a new friendship. Mike never took from relationships, he added to everyone he touched and the stories of his generosity and kindness are legendary.  
The second thing was his love of eating in groups. He had his favorite places and meals but for him eating was more about fellowship than food. At the table, everyone was equal and all ideas were worth consideration. Debate was encouraged without fear of embarrassment or retribution. All opinions had weight and worthiness and laughter was plentiful. I learned more about scouting and life during the hundreds of meals I had with him than anywhere else in my life. It was a Master course not only in every facet of baseball but in building a life well lived.”
Billy Milos joined the Twins organization in 1994 as an area scout. He has spent time on the amateur side of scouting, in pro scouting and has been quite involved with the Twins signing players from independent leagues. The two worked together and watched a lot of baseball together over the past several decades.  
“He was my boss for decades. Even when he wasn’t my boss, he was still my boss. The number of lessons and “teachings” are too numerous to count. But the one that stands out is learning how to listen from him. It was something I needed as a young scout and something he excelled at with ease. He didn’t try to teach it, it just rubbed off on you by watching him.”
He referred to Radcliff as “the hardest working person I’ve ever met in my life! A Hall of Fame scout, Scouting Director, Baseball Executive, and human being. He can not be replaced.” 
He continued, “Highly intelligent. A photographic memory. He could think and respond swiftly but yet in such a calm manner. Such great people skills, and a great sense of humor too. He was the type of leader that let you do your job. Never hovered over you. He loved having his work plate overflowing at all times. For him, that was comforting. He was so organized you would never know how much information passed through him each and every day until you listened to him. He could cover six completely different current events in one 10 minute conversation and be completely up to date on all six. It was dizzying! How did he keep up like this every single day of his life? An amazing individual that excelled in every single aspect of the human spirit. 
Mike knew everything going on in baseball. Here is a man fully immersed in the draft. That was his love. But he knew all the best players for the next two drafts as well. But more amazing, he knew everything going on across the big leagues, minor leagues and the world of International prospects. It was just plain scary that he could sit there and have a discussion with you that spanned across all the different segments of baseball. Organizations have different departments for each aspect of baseball, and many people working within each department. Well, he had all that stuff in his head at any one time and could talk to you about any of it without looking at his phone or opening up his tablet. That's the truth. And if that wasn’t enough you could start talking about college basketball, or some random current event in America, or finance.You name it, and he was on top of it. He somehow crammed 36 hours into every day.” 
Brad Steil joined the Twins organization as an intern and is about to begin his 23rd year in the organization. He has been involved in scouting and baseball operations. He was the Twins Director of Minor league League Operations for five years and is now in his sixth year as Director of Player Procurement. 
He said, “When I started with the Twins, I worked closely with Mike on a daily basis. So I owe a lot to him for teaching me as much as he did early on. On a personal level, Mike was truly a phenomenal human being and a great friend. His kindness, empathy, and integrity really set him apart. In the baseball world, nobody was more respected for their evaluation skills and work ethic. It was a true privilege working with him for over 20 years, and I will always be grateful for his friendship.”
John Wilson joined the Twins in the early ‘90s. He can be seen in ballparks from North Carolina to Maine and everywhere in between. 
“Mike was my scouting director for 14 years. That's just not the norm anymore, but then again, Mike wasn't about ‘norms.’ One of Mike's strengths was that he supported and trusted his scouts. In my opinion, this allowed us to thrive and gave us confidence to create our own style and give our own opinions. Mike didn't teach us what to think, he taught us how to think. To look beyond the game, the field or a particular play. As a scout, you did your homework because you knew that is what he wanted, and you didn’t want to let him down. He led by example with his work ethic, so you followed his lead. One thing about Mike that was both challenging and humorous was that it was impossible to beat him to the ballpark, no matter how hard you tried.  When it came to evaluating players, Mike was like your junior high math tutor. He'd let you work through and solve a problem, even though he knew the answer all along.”
Wilson shared one story that illustrates his eye for talent. “One story that I'll always remember is at our organizational meetings in October 1996, Mike came up to me and told me ‘get to know Cuddyer, he’s gonna be our guy at pick 9’ (in the 1997 draft). This shows the depth and skill he had to be able to predict which guys would be available to us, even though the draft was eight months away.”
Wilson also shared a story to illustrate one of Radcliff’s best traits. “A great example of his humility and how he preferred to stay behind the scenes, was when Michael Cuddyer was put into the Twins Hall of Fame. The Twins brought me out to Minnesota. Mike Radcliff was there but wouldn't go onto the field for the ceremony. I think he just preferred to sit back in the shadows and let others be recognized, even though so much of what was accomplished was because of him. Mike could have beat his chest with all he accomplished. He could have postured for GM jobs, but I believe Mike loved the Twins. He loved the people he worked with and enjoyed helping us grow. He was famous for starting a discussion and letting us run with it.” 
You may know Jack Powell from his cameo on Trouble with the Curve, but when he’s not acting, he is an area scout for the Twins in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and in the Florida Panhandle. 
“I learned to be patient and let the process work. “Know before you go” equals ‘gather up as much info about the player you are about to see so you can have an idea about him, especially on one you have never seen. Love God, your family, your friends, and job. Treat each other with the same respect you expect them to return to you. Mike was someone I respected for 40 years working across the aisle from him. I was blessed to have worked side-by-side with him over the past 15+ years. He will be missed and thought of forever.”
Ken Compton is a professional scout with the Twins and has also learned a lot with and under Mike Radcliff. He said recently, “Not enough can be said about this amazing man, leader, and scout. I’ve learned so many things from Mike; preparation, work habits, humility, the list goes on and on. But the one that probably stands out the most is how to treat people. He treated everyone the same regardless of their position or status. He “genuinely” cared about people and made everyone feel special and validated. It’s hard to call it a leadership “style” because it wasn’t an act or something he learned in a book. It’s who he truly was.”
Radcliff was the Twins Scouting Director for 14 years. When he was promoted, Deron Johnson took over the position and held it until late in 2016. Sean Johnson was named the Director of Amateur Scouting in 2017, and was promoted to Vice President of Amateur Scouting in January. He joined the organization as an area scout in 2002. In 2007, he became the West Coast Supervisor and remained in that role until 2017. Royce Lewis became his first, first-round pick.
Sean Johnson has had a strong relationship with Mike Radcliff over the past 22 years. “Hard to boil down all of the things I learned from Mike, as he was the greatest teacher I’ve ever had in my life.” 
He noted four things in particular that he learned during his time with Mike Radcliff. They are as follows: 
1 - Lead with Humility 
“Mike was a father figure to some, a mentor to many, and a friend to everyone who crossed his path. The way he handled people was remarkable. He had this unique way to make scouts feel comfortable and confident with their scouting opinions, even though you knew he probably knew more about the player being discussed than you did. You always walked away from Mike feeling like he valued your opinion and the work you had done coming up with that opinion. He treated everyone the same from first-week-on-the-job interns to hall of fame executives. He worked every single day for four decades with zero ego.”
2 - He was a Great Listener 
“Mike spent far more time listening than he did talking. His ability to build consensus on a baseball decision was masterful. He was the best at getting people to pull in the same direction in an attempt to make the best decision possible. He loved creating these spaces where lengthy, in-depth baseball conversations happened. He wasn’t afraid to stir the pot or side with the unpopular opinion. During player conversations in the draft room he would always say, 'Well, I hate to play devil’s advocate here…' - which we all knew was a lie. Mike believed healthy debate and discourse would help guide our group to the best version of our opinion on a player.”
3 - He Defined Consistency 
“When we start to mold and develop our new scouts, we preach a lot about consistency being the key to being a great area scout. Preparation, organization, communication, getting to the ballpark early, gathering more information about a player than the other 29 teams are, etc. Mike defined consistency. I never once saw him less than 100 percent prepared for any situation.”
4 - He Believed in a Player’s Makeup as a Separating Tool 
“Mike believed that knowing as much as we could about a player’s makeup and ability to compete was the separator in the draft room. If we knew how a player was wired and how that player was as a person away from the ballpark, we had a much better chance of making the right selection when it was our turn to pick. When Mike would ask you about a specific player on your draft list, it was a rare occasion when he wouldn’t ask you about what you knew about that player’s makeup.”
A week ago, I shared my thoughts and experiences with Mike Radcliff, and we followed that up with comments from former Twins players such as Brian Dozier, Josh Rabe, and several others.
Today I hope you have enjoyed the stories shared by some of the scouts that he worked with. Even more, it is fun to read what these scouts learned from Mike Radcliff on the baseball field, as a scout, and just in life. I’m sure there’s something in there that we all can learn from. 
John Wilson concluded by saying, “I think what I’ll miss most is the friendship. The ability to just call him up and hear him answer ‘Howdy,’ and we just talk about whatever; Players, children or just life, Mike had insight into all of it. I am extremely grateful for having Mike Radcliff in my life.”
Finally, Mike Ruth shared, “His passing leaves a giant void in the lives of so many who he touched over the years. He was the greatest scout most of us ever saw but he was even better as a friend and leader.”
Radcliff’s visitation and funeral will be on Wednesday, February 15th,at Lee’s Summit Christian Church in Lee’s Summit, Missouri. It is a suburb on the southeast side of Kansas City. 
Mike was passionate about the game of baseball and the Minnesota Twins. If anyone is interested, the family suggests any donations be made to the Minnesota Twins Community Fund or the Kansas City MLB Urban Youth Academy. These memorials will be used to promote and support youth baseball and soft-ball programs in honor of Mike’s passion for the game.
 

Age: 22 (DOB: 9/27/2000)
2022 Stats: (AA/AAA): 107.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 8

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
 
What's To Like
The 2021 season was a slog for Simeon Woods Richardson. Pushed aggressively to Double-A at age 20 coming off the lost COVID season, he struggled to find his rhythm, finishing with a 5.91 ERA in 53 1/3 sporadic innings. Spending several weeks abroad with Team USA for the Olympics (where he didn't actually pitch) and getting traded at mid-season for the second time in two years surely didn't help.
The young right-hander took it in stride. He committed to a smoother ride in 2022 and made it happen. After giving up six earned runs in eight innings spread across four appearances at Wichita following the trade in '21, Woods Richardson got off to a much better start in his second tour, going four full turns on the mound before allowing his first earned run of the season. He turned the hot opening into a strong run with the Wind Surge before a bout with COVID in June knocked him out of action for six weeks. 
This time, he wouldn't let the time off derail him. Woods Richardson returned in late July and was lights out. He made five more starts for Wichita, striking out 10 over five innings in the last one before a promotion to Triple-A, where he was consistently excellent through the end of September. 
By the time Woods Richardson got the call to start at Detroit in one of the last games of the Twins season, he had posted a 2.15 ERA while holding opponents to a .188/.255/.266 line in 54 ⅓ innings over his past dozen outings between Double-A and Triple-A. Not much more you can do to earn the opportunity.
He made the most of that opportunity, holding the Tigers to two runs on three hits over five innings. Granted, it was a meaningless game between two eliminated teams eager to close up shop, but still it was a big and impressive moment for Woods Richardson, who was the youngest pitcher to throw in the majors last season. He showed all the polish and poise that got him there.
There are some limitations to SWR's game, as we'll discuss, but his youth gives you the ability to dream on further evolution of his talent. He's still only 22 with room for growth yet. (For comparison, he's about two months older than our #7 prospect Connor Prielipp, who was drafted out of the University of Alabama last summer and hasn't yet thrown a professional pitch.)
What's Left to Work On
Woods Richardson saw a big velocity spike during his senior year of high school in Sugar Land, TX, prompting the Mets to draft him 48th overall and sign him to a $1.85 million bonus.
His advanced stuff played well in the low levels of the minors and Woods Richardson moved fast, reaching High-A by the age of 18. But the trouble is, his stuff sort of stagnated over the next few years. SWR's fastball velo hasn't picked up any added oomph and is now solidly below average in the low 90s range. He hasn't developed a true putaway pitch, although the changeup has emerged as star of the show and helped him decimate lefties last year with an extreme reverse platoon split.
To his great credit, Woods Richardson got the job done everywhere he went in 2022, averaging more than a strikeout per inning, but he wasn't overpowering hitters based on the raw caliber of his pitches. 
Part of what helps him succeed is a funky over-the-top delivery with good extension that routinely keeps hitters from jumping on his pitches. (He allowed only six home runs in 107 innings last year, and has a 0.6 HR/9 overall in the minors.) But Woods Richardson's quirky mechanics can also become a source of inconsistency, leading to occasion command issues that never seemed to surface in the low minors. This was an especially big problem during the 2021 campaign, but he was able to tighten things up last year.
If the lanky 6-foot-3 hurler can further refine and orchestrate all the moving parts in his delivery and find a way to juice up his fastball, he still has the potential to reach another level as a starting pitcher. If not, the Twins will need to decide if they want to keep pushing toward a future in the lower part of the rotation, or potentially bigger things in the bullpen.
What's Next
Woods Richardson reached the majors alongside Louie Varland at the end of last year, so these two stand as the most readily available depth in the prospect pool should a need arise. However, Varland is three years older and seems like more of a finished product, so he's firmly ahead in line.
The Twins will be inclined to show patience with Woods Richardson, giving him ample time and seasoning in Triple-A before they feel ready to promote him for good. They should hopefully have that luxury with at seven starters lined up ahead of him on the depth chart. 
Feel free to discuss SWR as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF
Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Prospect #5: Coming Monday!
 

Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. 
Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split  - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: 
Sonny Gray
Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9
Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9
Joe Ryan
Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9
Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9
Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. 
Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9
Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9
Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin?
Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. 
All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. 
But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage.  
This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. 
Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium. 

MLB teams need players to fit different roles on the roster, from the big bat off the bench to a fireman reliever out of the bullpen. Jorge Polanco is entering his tenth big-league season, and he has quietly become one of Minnesota’s most consistent presences in the line-up. Multiple traits make Polanco underrated as he has developed into one of baseball’s best second basemen before entering his age-29 season. 
Minnesota originally signed Polanco as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in a strong signing class that included Max Kepler and Miguel Sano. Kepler and Polanco agreed to contract extensions leading into the 2019 season to add to their years of team control. He signed what turned out to be a very team-friendly deal for five years and $25.75 million. There is a vesting option for 2024 ($10.5 million) if he reaches 550 PA in 2023. Minnesota also holds a $12 million team option for 2025, with escalators based on All-Star Games, Silver Sluggers, and Gold Gloves. He’s earned over $18.3 million in his career, but his value to the Twins has been much higher than his earnings. 
Polanco has outperformed his contract nearly every season since becoming a big-league regular. He was limited to 104 games last season, and FanGraphs pegs his value at $14.6 million. His best season was the 2021 campaign when he provided 4.2 WAR, which equals $33.4 million in value. In 2019, he was the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game, and he was worth $26.2 million. Overall, he has been worth 13.9 WAR and $111.3 million. 
Every winter, MLB Network ranks the top players at each position. Polanco improved by one spot in the rankings, moving from seventh to sixth overall. Fans did not think as highly of Polanco as he didn’t make the top-10 fan list from MLB Network, with players like Ozzie Albies and Jazz Chisholm Jr. jumping over him into the list. Polanco isn’t a household name, so it’s easy to see why he might be forgotten about in fan voting. 
Among AL second basemen, Polanco has the third-highest WAR over the last two seasons behind Jose Altuve and Marcus Semien. He ranks sixth among all second basemen in the same period. Altuve is the only second baseman with a higher wRC+ over the last two years. Last season, he ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in xwOBA, Barrel %, xSLG, Chase Rate, and Sprint Speed. His best category was BB%, as he ranked in the 98th percentile after drawing a career-high 64 walks. He is clearly among baseball’s best second basemen in many offensive categories. 
Defensively, Polanco struggled in 2022, but a knee injury might have impacted his defensive value. Only three AL second basemen ranked lower than Polanco according to SABR’s Defensive Index. Baseball Savant ranked him in the 14th percentile for Outs Above Average and in the 25th percentile for Arm Strength. It will also be interesting to see how MLB’s shift rules impact his defensive value. Defensive metrics have been hard to trust the past couple of seasons, with the second baseman regularly standing in shallow right field. His ankle and knee issues may have slowed him down, which might impact his defensive value without being able to play on the grass. 
Polanco missed the last month of the season after a knee injury, but the team is reporting that he should be ready for spring training later this month. Minnesota also has multiple top prospects behind Polanco on the second base depth chart. Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien , and Austin Martin look to impact the roster in 2023, and second base might be their path to playing time. If Polanco’s injuries reemerge, the Twins might turn the position over to a younger player. 
Since the start of 2019, only Byron Buxton has provided more value to the Twins than Jorge Polanco. Some fans might have yet to fully appreciate that value, which is one of the biggest reasons he is underrated. Do you feel Polanco is an underrated player? Is he the most underrated player on the Twins roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

Adding a right-handed bat has been a talking point for the Minnesota Twins all off-season. They somewhat addressed it by trading for Michael A Taylor, who hits right-handed but doesn't hit left-handed pitching exceptionally. With five left-handed hitters currently on the 26-man and switch hitter Jorge Polanco being better from the left side, this might be an issue for the Twins. Fortunately, I think this weakness might be overstated. 
Of the five left-handed hitters projected to get significant playing time, only two have a clear need for a platoon partner - Nick Gordon (career 54 wRC+ vs. LHP) and Max Kepler (career 73 wRC+ vs. LHP). Of the remaining hitters, Joey Gallo was abysmal against left-handers last season (23 wRC+ in 2022) but has handled them well throughout his career (104 wRC+ vs. LHP).  Both Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have even splits between lefties and righties, albeit small samples. The Twins should see if either former top prospect can hit southpaws at the Major League level before condemning them to platoon roles. 
Given some big-time moves this off-season, it would be easy to forget the Twins' first acquisition, Kyle Farmer. Perhaps it was undersold as a skill, but Farmer is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitchers.
In 2022, per FanGraphs, among hitters with 150 plate appearances versus left-handers, Farmer ranked 13th with a 157 wRC+ (ahead of Trea Turner, whom Tony La Russa intentionally walked in a 1-2 count vs. a lefty), 7th with a .948 OPS, 7th in wOBA at .404, and 9th in batting average at .309. There is a very strong case that Kyle Farmer is one of the ten best hitters in all of baseball versus left-handed pitching. 
So what would a potential lefty-killing lineup look like for the Twins? I mentioned that Kyle Farmer might be a top 10 hitter against lefties, but they also have two other hitters on that list in Byron Buxton (159 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022) and Carlos Correa (168 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). If he had enough plate appearances, Ryan Jeffers would also be on there (161wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). Against a left-handed starter, a potential lineup could be:
 
Byron Buxton CF 159 wRC+ vs. LHP Carlos Correa SS 168 wRC+ vs. LHP Kyle Farmer 2B 157 wRC+ vs. LHP Jose Miranda 3B 132 wRC+ vs. LHP Alex Kirilloff 1B 99 wRC+ vs. LHP (career) Ryan Jeffers DH 161 wRC+ vs. LHP Joey Gallo RF 104 wRC+ vs. LHP Christian Vazquez C 130 wRC+ vs. LHP Trevor Larnach LF 108 wRC+ vs. LHP (career)  The Twins' front office has also stated Farmer could see some time in the outfield. You could sub out either corner outfielder for Jorge Polanco (career 93 wRC+ vs. LHP), move Farmer to the outfield, and move Polanco to 2B. 
Michael A Taylor was also left off this lineup but figures to see most of his plate appearances against lefties. If the Twins wanted to DH Buxton or not have two catchers in the lineup, Taylor slides into CF. Taylor could also play in either corner outfield spot and spell any left-handed bats in the lineup. He would be a one-for-one swap in either LF or RF, but if Kirilloff needs a rest day, Gallo can cover 1B for that day.
If things start to fall apart, the Twins also have Kyle Garlick stashed in AAA, who's made a name for himself mashing lefties. The front office certainly thought that a right-handed bat would be useful, being mentioned with names like Yuli Gurriel, A.J. Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen . Still, I feel good about the current roster construction's ability to hit left-handed pitching and don't see this as something that needs to be addressed. 

It is fairly easy to remember how long Mike Radcliff has been in the organization. He joined the Minnesota Twins as an area scout in 1987 after four years as a scout for the Major League Scouting Bureau. A native of Kansas City, he became the Twins Midwest Supervisor in 1988. In 1993, Radcliff was named the team’s Director of Scouting and was in charge of all of the area scouts, regional supervisors, and cross-checkers. 
It was in that role that he was ultimately responsible for the Twins draft picks. While no Scouting Director bats 1.000 with their picks, Radcliff had many successes during his tenure. He is the guy who drafted Twins first-round picks such as Torii Hunter (1993), Todd Walker (1994), Mark Redman (1995), Michael Cuddyer (1997), Joe Mauer (2001), Denard Span (2002), Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins (2004), and Matt Garza (2005). He found other good players in later rounds as well. 
In 2007, he was promoted to the team’s Vice President of Player Personnel. It was a step up. He continued to work in the scouting group with new Scouting Director Deron Johnson and his staff, but he also worked more with the international scouting and the pro scouting departments. He traveled all over the world to watch baseball talent. He worked with Fred Guerrero in scouting the Dominican and Venezuela. He played a big role in that 2009 international signing class that included Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano. 
He has been fighting pancreatic cancer for the past few years but was still involved with Player Personnel decisions. 
Mike Radcliff was always really nice to me. During the early years of SethSpeaks dot net, I would send him questions for Q&As on players, and he was always generous with his responses. He didn’t just give the short answer to get it done with. He always replied. 
From those responses, I learned a couple of things about him. First, he was obviously very knowledgeable about every player in the organization. I get that is his job, but he could provide detail on over 200 players plus past players and players from other organizations that he had watched. 
The other thing I learned from those interactions was that he could be brutally honest. Just because I was a blogger from Nowheresville, it didn’t matter. 
One example from probably 2006 or 2007. There was a prospect who had experienced several ups and downs in his minor-league career. Frankly, his numbers were not great. There was a second minor-leaguer who played the same position and had consistently outperformed the ‘prospect’. So, one of my questions was about the two and if the second player could be better than the higher-profiled prospect. 
Radcliff’s response was basically to say that the prospect was clearly the better player, much more highly thought of, and definitely part of the Twins' future. Brutal honesty, but after I posted the article, I got an e-mail from the second minor leaguer's dad just saying that isn’t what he wanted to read from someone whose opinions carried so much weight in the organization. 
Also, the “prospect” went on to play more than a decade in the big leagues. The other minor leaguer spent parts of three seasons and around 100 games in the big leagues, still a tremendous accomplishment. 
Remember back when Twins Fest was in the Metrodome? Back then, there was a ‘Down on the Farm’ area where fans could get in line and get autographs from Twins minor leaguers. I would primarily stay right around there and talk to some of the players I’d communicated with. But a lot of times, Radcliff was there too. He was just standing in the area, observing the players and interacting with fans that might have a question. 
I would always find him there and stand with him and talk about baseball things but also just other things. But I would come up with questions about prospects and he would answer, again, pretty honestly. 
At Twins Fest 2010, we were standing there talking as one group of players was leaving and a new group was entering the area. Radcliff was observing and said to me, “Danny Valencia... Who would have thought he’d be added to the 40-man roster?” 
Valencia had mashed throughout the minor leagues, but despite a solid college career at Miami, he fell to the 19th round of the 2006 draft. 
Oh, and just try to give him credit for a draft pick he made making it to the big leagues, or becoming a star. Radcliff would stop you short and make sure to credit the area scout who was convicted in his belief in the player. 
I would see Radcliff most years down in Ft. Myers. Not at Hammond Stadium. Not in the press box. But on the back fields watching the minor leaguers. For those familiar with the back fields, there is an observation tower in between the four fields that are together. Radcliff would be up there at times, but usually, he was positioned at ground level, where he would see two fields and a bullpen. 
Radcliff was quiet, and again, just observing, taking it all in. You could tell he loved it, being at the ballpark, watching young players. He had scouted many of them and was now seeing them going through the development process. It’s not an exact science. He always understood that these are people. People with flaws, and people who have a lot of talent. He understood how difficult the game can be. 
Again, standing by him, watching him watching ballplayers was interesting. Trying to figure out what he was observing. But again, I could ask him questions, and he would respond thoroughly. 
It was always funny when a member of the Twins front office staff would throw out a name to him, and without hesitation, Radcliff would respond with “6th round, 2004.” And he was always right.
In 2011, Mike Radcliff was named the Scout of the Year in the Midwest. In 2014, he was inducted into the Professional Scouts Hall of Fame. In September 2021, he was elected to the Killebrew Root Beer Professional Scouts Hall of Fame. You can see his plaque at Hammond Stadium in Ft. Myers. 
In 2016, he was given the George Genovese Lifetime Achievement Award in Scouting (given by the Professional Baseball Scouts Foundation). Finally, in 2021, he received the Herb Carneal Lifetime Achievement Award at the Diamond Awards. 
“The Minnesota Twins today mourn the loss of Mike Radcliff. Mike was the heart and soul of our scouting department for over 30 years, a man who was beloved and respected by staff, players, fellow scouts, agents, and his peers alike. One of baseball’s most revered talent evaluators, his character, work ethic, kindness, and sense of humor set the tone for our player development and evaluation processes. His baseball legacy lives on in the number of Twins Hall of Famers, All-Stars, and great teams that bear his fingerprints, while his impact as a person will be forever felt by those that knew him. In the words of his trade, Mike was the epitome of a five-tool player, and he will be greatly missed across Twins Territory. Our deepest sympathies are with his wife Sherry, son Brett, daughter Erin, and the entire Radcliff family during this difficult time.”
In the Twins' 60+ years in Minnesota, few have had as much of an impact on the organization as Mike Radcliff. Best wishes to his family and all his friends in the Twins organization.
 

Yes, gone is Eddie Rosario, and maybe Max Kepler will be jettisoned at some point as well. What stands as truth either way, however, is that Rocco Baldelli should lay claim to having baseball’s best outfield.
As always, Byron Buxton needs to stay healthy. That has been the case forever and will continue to be as much. His 92 games last season was the most he has played since 2017, and that was the last time he won a Gold Glove. We aren’t just hoping for a guy to contribute in the field anymore either, as when Buxton is out there, he’s among the best in the game. Now having developed into a Mike Trout or Aaron Judge type on a per-game basis, Buxton represents the gold standard in centerfield.
When the Twins brought in Joey Gallo, it immediately made more sense for them to move Kepler. With Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach vying for time on the corners, and all being left handed, the glut had to be reduced somehow. Still, Kepler being parted out for nothing makes little sense. Although the offensive profile is nowhere near that of Buxton’s he contributes to a very similar level on defense. Rating highly by both defensive runs saved and outs above average, Kepler is among the premier players in right field.
Gallo is traditionally seen as the slugging bat that is home run or bust. That simplifies his game far more than should be warranted. He is also a strong on-base contributor, and among the best outfielders in the game by his own right. Able to play any of the three spots on the grass, Gallo is quicker than you’d expect given his size, and the arm strength is notable as well. He has two Gold Glove awards to his credit, and neither are simply a byproduct of what he did on offense.
Behind the starters is where Minnesota has also made massive strides. Rather than needing to play Jake Cave, or ask Tim Beckham to learn a new position, Michael A. Taylor represents the next man up. His bat has never been anything to write home about, but he represents a Gold Glove caliber centerfield talent, and could start on nearly any other team in baseball. With a desire to keep Buxton off his feet on occasion, filling in with that level of defensive talent is beyond impressive. From there the Twins could turn to either Nick Gordon, who filled in admirably last year, or Gilberto Celestino. Gordon showed a consistent level of development as he worked to acclimate himself in centerfield. His arm strength has been a question at shortstop, but his speed and closing ability played well in the outfield. Now more of a utility talent, being capable on the grass gives him plenty of opportunity. Celestino has always looked the part of a strong defender, and the growth he showed during year two in the big leagues was substantial. There is probably more to unlock with him, and Minnesota should continue to find ways to do so.
At the end of the day there won’t be a surefire way to replace the production lost by either Buxton or Gallo if either miss time. Dealing Kepler could hurt should Minnesota need to replace injured bodies. When Spring Training commences though, it’s hard to think of another roster in baseball that can lay claim to the same level of defensive talent.
One would hope that Royce Lewis can return this summer and play on the dirt. He found his way to the outfield last year with guys missing time and the roster needing help. The latter part should no longer be an issue, and with Target Field having an expansive amount of space to cover, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have given their pitchers the best players to do it.
A season ago Minnesota was a top five unit in the outfield defensively. For 2023, the focus should be 1st or bust.

Griffin Jax got a look as a starting pitcher down the inconsequential stretch of 2021. It didn’t go great as evidenced by his 6.37 ERA in 82 innings, but when his bright spots popped up, they were typically driven by a slider-heavy approach. 
While it can be rash to judge a starting pitching prospect when they struggle in their rookie season, the Twins opted to allow Jax to play to his strengths. In shorter stints, he could feature his wicked slider and complement it with a middling fastball that played up with a three mph increase in velocity. He went on to be a staple of the Twins bullpen, posting a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. Could we see another Griffin Jax-type reliever in 2023?
Cole Sands
Sands became an afterthought to many in 2022 after being used to fill innings in several spots where the Twins were struggling to field a team. Never a prospect with a particularly high pedigree, it’s easy to see his ERA over 5.00 at both the Triple-A and MLB levels in 2022 and consider him as nothing more than a fringy fill-in type. The Twins however haven’t exhausted all of their options with Sands yet.
Sands’ carrying tool as a prospect has always been his huge breaking ball which received an excellent 70 grade by Fangraphs. He doesn’t excel in any other department, but there’s a world where the offspeed is good enough to make him a legitimate weapon if he can go out and throw it as much as he wants for an inning. The pitch was in the 88th percentile in spin rate in 2022 and stymied opposing hitters even as he was often used for multiple innings. With several other starting pitching prospects graduating into the depth chart, it may be time for Sands to make the switch.
Ronny Henriquez
Henriquez is listed at what has been described as a generous 5’10. Regardless of his size, he’s shown the ability to run his fastball into the mid-to-high-90s with impressive spin. In addition, he features a well-regarded slider and changeup as well. Despite these tools, Henriquez just didn’t show what he needed to in Triple-A, posting a 5.66 ERA in 2022 due to issues with the long ball. He made his MLB debut working as a multi-inning bullpen arm for 11 innings.
Henriquez could follow a similar path to Jax if converted to a traditional one to two inning reliever. He already featured his slider in his debut, throwing it about 46% of the time and drawing a 32% whiff rate. Like Jax, his fastball got absolutely pummeled. In a condensed role, it’s possible the fastball which debuted at 93.3 mph could gain a few ticks to help him get away with a few more mistakes. Unlike Jax, Henriquez appears to already have a solid left-hander equalizer in the changeup. If the Twins commit to the move for Henriquez at 23 years old, he has the tools to excel in short stints.
Bailey Ober
It may seem like a longshot for Ober to wind up in the bullpen, but he may be closer than many fans would like to believe. When it comes to the body of work for the 6’9 right-hander, it’s hard to complain about his performance. Ober has a sub 4.00 ERA across his first two MLB seasons and a legitimate four-pitch mix, making him a painful consideration to ever be moved to the bullpen.
It’s more about quantity than quality in Ober’s case, however. He’s had an injury-riddled career and has surpassed 100 innings just once in his five professional seasons. His lack of reliability likely played a big part in the Twins acquiring Pablo López, which appears to have pushed Ober out of the Opening Day rotation. Many would be surprised to know that he’s already 27 years old, and at this point, another multi-week IL stint will likely push prospects like Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson ahead of him on the rotational depth chart.
With his age, Ober not only becomes more of an injury risk every year, but his projectability becomes an issue. The idea of building up to even 140-150 innings is almost unfathomable following a 2022 season where he threw just over 70. At some point, the Twins may just decide that if Ober’s cap is 100 innings, he may be better off throwing 50-60 innings out of the bullpen and giving those bulk innings to younger starters who are still capable of reaching a starter’s workload. Ober’s already-sufficient pitch would most certainly play up in the bullpen, and it may even help keep him on the field.
Do you think the Twins have any more starting pitching prospects who could be headed for a successful bullpen job? Let us know below!
 
 

In the past, we have presented our selections for the Top 20 Twins prospects before each season. In 2022, that list was the starting point for the Prospect Tracker which we updated at the beginning of each month and after the trade deadline, and then at the end of the season. 
Since the season’s end, there have been several changes. Several players became free agents. The Twins lost a couple of pitchers in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. They made a couple of trades to bring in new talent from the Angels and Marlins while sending two upper-level relievers to the Royals. In addition, our minor-league writers have learned more and more about several prospects, particularly those drafted or signed most recently. 
With all that said, this year, we are moving to a Top 30 Twins prospect rankings for a couple of reasons. First, ten of our minor-league writers provided a list of their Top 30 Twins prospects. Second, why not recognize another ten Twins prospects at this time of year? Now, we are going to do that by adding just one more article. Tomorrow, we will share our choices for Twins Prospects 21-30. With the current schedule, starting next week, we will be jumping into the Top 10 prospects. 
However, today, we will be starting this series by sharing a list of Honorable Mentions, or Also Received Votes, if you prefer. Even within this group, which could make up our prospects from around 31 through around 45, there are several future big-leaguers in the group, a couple that we could see in 2023. 
I’ve really enjoyed writing this Honorable Mention article because it can show the organization’s depth. If we are being honest, it can also show the limitations of prospect ranking. This can be former prospects coming off of bad years. It can be recently-acquired players (via trade or draft) that may not be the top picks but there is something intriguing. There may be players who have never been looked at as top prospects but continue to consistently get moved up and keep themselves in the conversation. 
In 2019, Luis Arraez and Jordan Balazovic appeared in this range of the list. The 2020 Honorable Mention article named players such as Jorge Alcala, Bailey Ober, and Akil Baddoo.) 
Last year’s Honorable Mentions were quite interesting. It included 2021 picks that have been traded in key trades such as Cade Povich and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. It also contained 2019 pick Sawyer Gipson-Long who was traded to the Tigers at the deadline. Casey Legumina was traded to the Reds for Kyle Farmer after being added to the Twins' 40-man roster. Oh, and wait until you see which players jumped from Honorable Mention last year into the Top 10 this year. 
Before we start, the following players are no longer “prospects” according to Baseball-Reference: Jose Miranda, Gilberto Celestino, Joe Ryan, Jovani Moran, Josh Winder, and Jhoan Duran. 
FIRST-ROUND FEATURE  
2019 first-round pick Keoni Cavaco fell out of the top 20 last year and this year, out of the top 30. Honestly, the tools, speed, power, and arm strength are all still there. He returned to the Mighty Mussels in 2022 but made the move to third base. In 99 games, he hit .231/.275/.397 (.672) with 18 doubles, five triples, and 11 home runs. He missed a little time. He should move out of the Florida State League, so don’t give up on him yet. 
UTILITY TYPES IN UPPER LEVELS 
They may not be top prospects, but you have to have noticed that this organization places a lot of value on versatility and being able to play multiple positions. That becomes more valuable as guys reach the upper levels.  
Michael Helman’s ‘stock’ soared in 2022 when he split his season between Wichita and St. Paul. In 135 games, he hit .258/.337/.432 (.769) with 23 doubles and 20 homers while stealing 40 bases in 45 attempts. Drafted as an infielder, he has played all three infield and outfield spots over the past two seasons. 
Anthony Prato was a 7th-round pick from UConn in 2019. He split 2022 between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. Combined, he played 60 games in left field, 34 games at second base, 22 games at third base, and 12 games at shortstop. He also made starts, and first base and in right field. He played a combined 132 games and hit .285/.383/.444 (.827) with 30 doubles, eight triples, and 10 homers. He also stole 22 bases. 
Will Holland was the Twins 5th round pick in 2019 from Auburn. While he was drafted as a shortstop and made 15 starts at that position in Cedar Rapids, he has made a pretty clear transition to the outfield. He is arguably the fastest player in the organization and has played a lot of center field. After a late-season promotion to Wichita, he played solely in the outfield, playing more in the corners with DaShawn Keirsey in center. In 116 games, he hit .227/.339/.366 (.705) with 13 doubles, six triples, and nine homers. He also stole 32 bases in 38 attempts. 
BACKSTOPS  
The Twins added Christian Vazquez this offseason to team with Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. They have also added several veteran backstops, including Tony Wolters , Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco, to play in St. Paul along with David Banuelos. While the Twins don’t have any high-ranking catcher prospects, there are a few intriguing guys who can catch if needed. 
Chris Williams was the team’s 8th-round pick in 2018 from Clemson. He played 117 games between Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .246/.343/.500 (.843) with 21 doubles and 28 home runs. While he made 81 starts at first base, he continued to get time behind the plate with 21 starts. 
A 29th-round pick in 2019 from TCU, Alex Isola, missed time in 2022 with an injury. However, he made 17 starts at first base and 17 more behind the plate. He got a few at-bats and continued to work in the Arizona Fall League where he caught three times and played 12 games at first base. 
Noah Cardenas was the team’s 8th-round pick in 2021 out of UCLA. He was the Twins Daily Minor league All-Star catcher in 2022 when he hit .261/.421/.413 (.834) with 18 doubles and nine homers. He started at first base 25 times and at catcher 56 times. He has thrown out 29% of would-be base stealers. 
WE HARDLY KNOW YE, YET
There are several players that we just need to learn more about, and they fit in this category. 
Alejandro Hidalgo is the 19-year-old right-hander that the Twins received in the Gio Urshela deal. In Low-A in 2022, he made ten starts and went 0-3 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In 39 innings, he walked too many (19) but had an impressive 58 strikeouts (13.4 K/9). He currently has a low-90s fastball, but a changeup that can be really, really good. He is definitely one to watch in 2023. 
Brayan Medina was part of the Opening Day trade between the Twins and Padres. The 20-year-old pitched in just 10 games for the FCL Twins in 2022. It didn’t go well. In 23 2/3 innings, he struck out 24 batters, but he also walked 20 batters. 
Ariel Castro signed with the Twins about two weeks ago as a 16-year-old from Venezuela for $2.5 million. He hits left-handed, and he’s from Cuba. He’s got a sweet swing, but it’ll be fun to start following his career, which is likely to start in the DSL this year. 
Players from the 2022 draft to get some Top 30 recognition include right-handed pitcher Andrew Morris (4th round, Texas Tech) and Cory Lewis (9th round, UC-Santa Barbara), and infielders Ben Ross (5th round, Notre Dame College, OH), and Omari Daniel (14th round, The Walker School in Georgia). The reports are very interesting on both Lewis and Ross. 
INTERESTING ARMS
Cody Laweryson’s 2022 season started a little late, but it ended spectacularly. The 2019 14th-round pick from Maine played in the Arizona Fall League in 2021. He began with 16 games (2 starts) in Cedar Rapids and posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He finished the season with 19 games, including eight starts, in Wichita. He dominated to the tune of a 1.06 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. In 94 2/3 innings, he had 111 strikeouts. He doesn’t throw really hard, but he’s got a funky delivery and hides the ball well.  (See Laweryson's episode of Twins Spotlight.)
Sean Mooney had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and the Twins selected him with their 12th-round pick that year. Since his return, he’s struggled to pitch consistent innings, but he has been a strikeout machine. In 2022 in Cedar Rapids, he posted a 3.30 ERA, and in 60 innings, he walked 30 but struck out 82 batters. 
Travis Adams split the 2022 season between Ft. Myers (15 starts) and Cedar Rapids (7 starts). He went a combined 6-8 with a 3.93 ERA. He had 108 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings and had just 26 walks. While the numbers don’t jump out, the 2021 sixth-round pick is incredibly intriguing and could jump into the Top 20 a year from now. 
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That is a lot of talent, and those are guys who rank outside of the Twins Daily Top 30 prospects. Check back over the next two weeks to see who our 2023 Top 30 Twins Prospects are.
 
 

The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer. 
Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? 
Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. 
However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. 
Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. 
In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. 
The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. 
I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere