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ashbury reacted to Parker Hageman for an article, What Happened to Jose Miranda's Swing During the 2022 Season? (Full Version for Caretakers)Nevertheless, Miranda’s performance began to cool in August and leveled out for the remainder of the year. He hit .262 over his final 136 plate appearances with far less power production.
How did teams adjust to him and what does it say about his potential going forward?
Before we start disparaging Miranda’s late season performance, let’s consider some of his strengths.
His 117 weighted runs created plus – a rate stat that takes into consideration park factors and current run environment of the league – was the seventh best by a Minnesota Twins rookie and tied with notable legend Rod Carew.
From June through August, he led the team with 49 runs driven in and collected 74 hits (behind the eventual AL hit king, Luis Arraez). He was anointed the AL’s Rookie of the Month in July. He carried the Twins offense as best he could through a stretch in which the team was preparing for a late season nosedive.
In that time Miranda showed a keen ability to hit non-fastballs well. His .325 average against non-fastballs during that stretch was the 5th best in major league baseball. This is noteworthy considering how often rookie hitters struggle with spin: Over the last ten years, rookies have posted a .230/.270/.378 line against non-fastballs.
Unsurprisingly, pitchers adjusted their game plan to Miranda after he showed the propensity to wallop non-fastballs left in the strike zone. In August, teams started to shift to throwing him more sliders and locating them off the plate. Miranda began to swing more often and chased more frequently and so teams continued that trend throughout the rest of the season.
Miranda did an exceptional job of ambushing pitchers early in the count and this coincided with his ability to hit in-zone breaking balls hard. As pitchers tried to use get-me-over breaking balls to work ahead early, Miranda would attack. Spotting this trend, teams adjusted their approach and began to throw him breaking stuff away rather than risk catching too much of the zone.
Let’s acknowledge here that the division of the data is not as clean as simply turning the calendar. Teams did not wake up on September 1st and decided to throw Miranda more sweeping sliders off the plate – they started to phase those in more in August. But that strategy proved fruitful and likely enticed other teams to follow suit.
Miranda’s success may have prompted another strategy for the opposition. Earlier in the year, he held an average platoon advantage rate against relief pitchers. Meaning that teams were not necessarily ensuring they would gain an edge with a right-handed pitcher on the mound. This year, right-handed hitters in baseball had the platoon advantage against relief pitching in 23.6% of the plate appearances. From June through August, Miranda was at 21.6% (but he held a 27% advantage in June and July alone).
Platoon Advantage %
MLB Platoon (RP vs RHB)
24%
Miranda RP Platoon (June-July)
27%
Miranda RP Platoon (Sept-Oct)
10%
There are two reasons why teams began to make sure they had a right-handed pitcher on the mound when Miranda came to the plate.
The first is simple lineup construction. In June and July, Miranda often hit behind left-handed sluggers like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff. Opponents were more likely to use a lefty reliever against Larnach and Kirilloff while rolling the dice for an at bat with Miranda. Meanwhile, in August and after, Miranda was hitting behind Correa and Buxton.
Once Larnach and Kirilloff were out of the lineup, teams were able to use a nasty righty reliever against Miranda – especially considering he was positioned with Correa ahead of him and Nick Gordon (who hit .190 against all relievers from June onward) following him. Miranda’s percentage of plate appearances with the platoon advantage fell from 21.6% to 10.4%.
Similarly, like the blobby heat map above suggests, teams realized that they could stymie him with sliders and they would dispatch relievers to do just that. In his hot stretch, he saw sliders 27% of the time. During the last month and change, he got sliders 47% of the time out of the pen.
Miranda Vs Relievers (Pitch Selection)
Date
Slider%
June-July
27%
September-October
47%
So those factors explain some of the decline in the latter portion of the season. The other element was how Miranda slowly incorporated bigger movements into his swing.
Take a look at the video below:
What started to happen in August is that Miranda’s barrel tip – a rhythm mechanism during the load process that some hitters use to time up a pitcher – got more pronounced. His hands got lower and further away from his body as he would tip the barrel further toward the left-handed batters’ box.
Why this happened is unclear. It’s possible that the movement slowly got bigger as Miranda felt the need to add more power to his swing. After all, his home run totals sagged later in the year and as someone in the heart of the order, he may have felt the need to press.
Similarly, Miranda may have also been aware that pitchers were throwing him more offspeed and breaking balls and the added movement was meant to keep him back for a split second longer. However, it is hard to subscribe to the latter theory since he was so successful against breaking stuff previous to the late season issues.
Admittedly, Miranda would get to the same launch point (which some would argue is more essential than anything else) at roughly the same time but it’s hard not to conclude that the additional movement is mucking up the system in his timing and swing pattern to some degree. Fractions of inches and seconds matter a lot when trying to get to a round ball on time.
The combination of the two – a change in how teams were attacking him as well as the small adjustment in his swing pattern – may have been a reason why his late season performance dipped.
There is a lot to like about Miranda’s future based on his recent past. You have to appreciate how well he was able to hit spin as well as fastballs. The key will be to adjust to that outside slider and stay locked in on spin middle-in. His flatter bat path allowed him to maintain optimal launch angle better than most rookies (31.7% of his balls in play were between 10 and 30 degrees – 3rd highest rate among rookies) and allowed him to spray the ball to all fields with strength in the barrel (his 93 MPH average exit velo to center was the 2nd highest among rookies).
As hot as Miranda was for the two month stretch in June and July, it is difficult to envision him maintaining that pace over an entire season. Likewise, with his offensive tools and consistent ability to perform at every minor league level, it’s hard to see him replicating the September/October performance for a long stretch, too.
Based on his swing and his tendency to adjust, Jose Miranda will continue to find success at the plate. Look for him to be an offensive force in the middle of the order.
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ashbury reacted to RandBalls Stu for an article, Twins Place Entire 40-Man Roster on Injured ListInjuries are having a major impact across baseball, as teams scramble to field healthy rosters and make constant transactions with their minor league affiliates. No team has been more affected than the Minnesota Twins, who announced Thursday that they are placing their entire 40-man roster on the 10-day injured list.
“We were almost halfway there already,” said manager Rocco Baldelli. “And given how banged up our quote-unquote healthy guys are, it felt like the right move.”
To take their place, the Twins are relying on a forgotten World War I-era rule that allowed teams to backfill rosters with “strapping farmhands, eccentrics, spinsters, and gifted children from the area as our stout young lads take it to the Kaiser” in an emergency.
Sources say Major League Baseball leadership is furious, but their hands are tied.
“It was only meant to apply when players got drafted or volunteered for military service,” said a source close to MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred. “We now realize the vague wording gives teams like Minnesota some wiggle room. Unfortunately, the rule is very specific about the only person who can nullify the rule: Woodrow Wilson, who has died.”
The Twins are said to be scouting local high schools, rec centers, and playgrounds for “big kids” who could handle the physical rigors of professional baseball and give Minnesota a chance to compete in the wide-open AL Central.
“One of our scouts saw a kid named Cotter playing pick-up basketball at a park in northeast Minneapolis,” said Baldelli. “He was a good 4-5 inches taller than all these rickety dad types he was playing against. Just dominating them. Long story short he’s playing first base Friday and Saturday. He has Confirmation at his church on Sunday so we might build in a rest day, we’ll see how things develop.”
As for why the team is not using their own minor leaguers, Baldelli was uncharacteristically blunt.
“Fuel costs make all these call-ups crazy expensive, and a lot of these kids already have bus passes or a parent with a Honda Odyssey for carpooling. Also, the rest of the month we play Cleveland, Oakland, Kansas City, and Detroit. If we fielded a team of dogs in people clothes, we might go .500.”
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ashbury reacted to RandBalls Stu for an article, Dog in Christmas Sweater Urges Twins to Sign Byron BuxtonRoxy, a 5-year-old dog in a festive Christmas sweater, has two messages this holiday season.
“I would very much like a treat, and the Minnesota Twins should sign Byron Buxton to an extension,” said Roxy.
The dog, a Staffordshire bull terrier, hopes the gaudy garment draws attention to her message.
“Everyone sees a dog in an ugly sweater and they lose their damn minds,” said Roxy. “Now that I have their attention, I can get them to see the golden opportunity of a long-term deal for one of the game’s dynamic talents. Make no mistake, I hate wearing people clothes and go to great lengths to avoid it, including carpet urination and defiling stuffed animals. But this is important.”
Roxy said Buxton’s extensive injury history, while a concern, was outweighed by the center fielder’s overall game.
“In the field he saves your starting pitcher a run every game,” said the dog, pausing to bark at the doorbell for 45 seconds before continuing. “And his offense has finally caught up to his elite defense. He hit 19 home runs in 60 games last year. This is the rare chance for a team like Minnesota to retain a superstar in his prime oh my god A BUNNY RABBIT!”
Roxy observed a rabbit in the backyard, tore out the doggy door, and unsuccessfully chased it around the backyard. She wandered back into the house.
“As I was saying, Buxton’s health actually affords the Twins a chance to get him on an affordable, incentive-laden deal,” said the dog, catching her breath. “If he had been healthy and producing like he did for 162 games in 2021, the price tag would have given the Pohlads a nosebleed.”
Roxy noted that she also “did her business” while protecting the household from the bunny threat, and said you should clean it up before one of the kids stepped in it. She ended the interview to go nap in a sunbeam for three hours.
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ashbury reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Get Ready for the Opposite of Joe MauerIn March of 2010, Minnesota inked hometown hero Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184 million contract extension. He’d played in 699 games to that point and tallied three batting titles along with an MVP. With free agency looming, the Twins did the right thing and signed him to a deal that kept him from being paid by the Boston’s or New York’s of the baseball world.
Because we know that we can’t have nice things as Twins fans, Mauer’s career would be forever changed due to injuries. He’s still a Hall of Famer, and he was still underpaid, but what could’ve been is something we can always wonder about. Due to those injuries changing production Mauer’s contract was long a point of consternation for fans. Working through revisionist history, detractors will often suggest a desire to have let Mauer walk and watch larger markets pay him more. As luck would have it, those same people may now have their day.
Coming into 2022, Byron Buxton will have played 493 games for the Minnesota Twins. He’s owned an .897 OPS over the past three seasons and has a Platinum Glove to his credit before turning 28-years-old. An expected prime still ahead of him, this is a player that’s one of the ten best in the sport when he’s healthy. That’s where we pick up this story. Unlike Mauer, Buxton has experienced injury issues early on in his career. Also, unlike Joe, those injuries are the only reason Minnesota has a chance to sign the superstar in the first place.
Reportedly offering an $80 million deal, Minnesota has not yet pushed to the $100 million asking price even with a valuation that would far exceed that number with an average bill of health. Instead of being asked to pay $250 million or more to keep their home-grown talent, the Twins are being asked to pay pennies on the dollar to factor in the availability, or lack thereof, that comes with Buxton. Instead of jumping at that chance, they are said to be leaning in the opposite direction.
This isn’t a scenario in which history can be aligned to Terry Ryan’s ultimate gaffe regarding David Ortiz. No one is getting released, and the Twins will undoubtedly get something in exchange for Byron. The problem is that no player as valuable can be had for the same dollar amount, and a move regarding someone so intertwined with the fan base will forever cause ripple effects that only Mauer could’ve mirrored.
We should know soon how the front office is going to play this situation. Maybe they’ve purposely been leaking misinformation to increase their negotiating stance. However, time is running out on wondering what may happen as we are less than a year from knowing what will.
Byron Buxton might not be from St. Paul, Minnesota. Still, the Baxley, Georgia, native is every bit as Twins Territory as it gets and there isn’t an opportunity to put the band-aid back on this bullet wound once the trigger is pulled. Target Field was sold as an opportunity to keep the internal stars. That rung hollow when flipping Jose Berrios, and it hits rock bottom in moving on from Buxton. Whether he stays healthy or not isn’t the question for now. It’s whether or not you are willing to keep your best talent or continually recycle it.
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