TopGunn#22

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.
The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 
There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.
Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.
 

 
 
Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 
The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  
 
 
While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 
His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

Let’s first start by relieving pressure from new trainer Nick Paparesta. I don’t think anyone in the Twins organization views him as a savior of sorts, but there is no denying that his addition comes on the heels of a 2022 that saw a ridiculous amount of injury. Introducing new training techniques, the hope for Minnesota would be that players remain on the field more.
No one is more important in that endeavor than Byron Buxton.
On April 7, the Twins seventh game of the season in 2022, Buxton led off the game with a double against the Boston Red Sox. When sliding into second base, he jammed his knee, pounded his fist, and it looked as though his season may be over. Surprisingly, he missed just six games and returned on April 21 against the Kansas City Royals. Two days later, against the Chicago White Sox, he was 4-for-4 with a homer and looked like a superhero. The problem was that he never felt the same.
Routinely, Buxton found himself on the trainer’s table. He was getting fluid drained from his knee frequently. There was fear of infection. There were countless hours of rehab. In short, the superstar from Baxley, Georgia, was doing his best impression to look like the Superman from Smallville, Kansas.
From the point  he injured the knee against the Red Sox through his ultimate shutdown in August, Buxton played 85 games for the Twins. A good portion of those came as a designated hitter, attempting to keep his bat in the lineup while removing some pressure from his legs. Unfortunately, that also substantially saps the value such a great defender brings to the field, and Buxton had to feel less than ideal by providing only half of his value.
Getting into a total of 92 games last season, something Buxton noted as the most he’s played in since 2017, the Twins saw him produce 4.0 fWAR. On a per game basis, he has been right there with the likes of Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, or Paul Goldschmidt. The question for years has not been whether the talent was real, but how often it could matter.
Turning the page to 2023, Minnesota is hoping the fluke injuries end. There is no way to predict a knee going into the ground harshly on a slide. A hit by pitch shouldn’t always break a hand, and a dive forward into grass shouldn’t always result in a concussion. There was a time that Buxton’s style of play put him in harm's way, but even there Minnesota has worked to keep their talent healthy. Looking at projections for the upcoming season, Fangraphs’ Steamer has Buxton launching 32 homers across 130 games. Last season, he put up 28 in just 92 games. ZiPS projections have the Twins centerfielder at 22 home runs, but that system has him registering just 90 games. The total could conceivably be somewhere in the middle, but if Buxton plays anywhere close to 130 games, he may double the 3.6 fWAR seen for him in that time by Steamer.
As a whole, baseball does a poor job marketing its stars. Trout is hidden in Los Angeles as is his teammate Shohei Ohtani. The East Coast teams often get their due, and Mookie Betts has recently been the darling of the Dodgers. Although Minnesota will never be on that level, for Buxton to be in any national conversations, he must remain on the field. Fans wanting to see what that looks like over a near-162 games could be treated to something special.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put a strong foot forward for Rocco Baldelli with this club. Carlos Correa is here to stay. Byron Buxton being healthy and amazing is something everyone is waiting to present itself.

After the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa last week, it quickly became apparent that there was a logjam in the infield and that a move would have to be made. Logically the name that made the most sense for a trade was Luis Arraez. After rumors swirled for weeks about the mutual interest between the Twins and Marlins, the two teams finally came to an agreement.
Luis Arraez is no-doubt an elite contact hitter, one of the best to ever put on a Twins uniform. Arraez’s elite contact skills helped to prop up a slumping offense all summer for the Twins in 2022. The Rod Carew comps, while lofty, are not exaggerated when it comes to Luis Arraez. He is a hitting savant who will always put together a good at-bat, and almost never strike out.
Arraez isn’t without his flaws, though. While an elite contact hitter, Arraez lacks much of any power at all with his left-handed bat, which severely limits his overall upside as an elite player. Additionally, Arraez has consistently struggled with knee issues and has gone from an all-around utility player to a first baseman/designated hitter.
Because of the flaws noted above, it has been a question of how much value Luis Arraez could bring back in a trade. Over the countless weeks of trade speculation between the Twins and Marlins, there was talk about López for Arraez being an even swap trade, or even that the Minnesota Twins might need to toss in prospects to make the deal work. As the trade details came in, though, the trade was much more favorable to the Twins than anyone imagined, with the Twins not throwing in prospects of their own, but instead receiving multiple prospects. 
Pablo López isn’t a perfect pitcher by any means. His stuff doesn’t look like the stuff of an ace, and he has tended to wear down in the second half of seasons, but at 26 years old, López will slot right into the top of the rotation with Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle heading into 2023. A young (26 years old), affordable (set to earn $5.5M in 2023) and controllable (under team control through next season) starting pitcher is the exact kind of pitcher that Derek Falvey likes to go after (think Tyler Mahle). 
In addition to López, the Twins acquired a fringe top-100 prospect in José Salas and another prospect in Byron Chourio. (For more on Salas and Chourio, click here.) 
This trade was a slam dunk trade for the Twins’ front office for three reasons. 
First, they are doing what you always want to do in trades, selling high on their player. Luis Arraez just won the American League batting title, appeared in the most games in his career, and posted a career high in fWAR. There’s a good chance that Arraez’s value will never be higher than it is right now and cashing in on that value is really smart.
Secondly, the Twins traded from a position of strength (infield bat) and acquired a position of need (starting pitcher). They managed to find a trade partner that had a weakness in the Twins’ area of strength and thus dealt from a position of power. With rumors swirling for weeks about the framework of an Arraez/López trade, it's easy to connect the dots and see that the Twins knew they were holding the better hand and could hold out for the Marlins to toss in more assets, like they ultimately ended up doing.
Finally, the Twins made a slam dunk trade because they were able to recoup some of the value that they lost in 2022 when they traded away prospect depth in Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, among others. With this deal, the Twins have added a B and C-level prospect to replenish the farm and give them more trade ammo for down the road.
It’s impossible to write a Luis Arraez trade reaction piece without talking about how big of a bummer it is to lose Luis Arraez. While I write about baseball in an era of advanced metrics and numbers, it’s impossible for me to not get caught up in the emotion of baseball and no player on the Twins encompassed the emotion of baseball and love of the game quite like Luis Arraez. Luis was a true throwback player who was a joy to watch and had more fun than anyone and losing a player like that is hard.
How would you assess the Arraez trade? Leave a comment and start the conversation! Be sure to keep coming back to Twins Daily for lots more trade reactions and content over the coming days.
 

It’s common knowledge that the Twins will have to make significant additions at the trade deadline if they want to contend down the stretch and into October. The offense, which ranks top-5 in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), needs help from the pitching staff. The holes are apparent and reasonably wide. 
Even then, the Twins won’t go anywhere without solid performances from players on the roster. In other words, who has the most upside?
3. Sonny Gray
Before the lockout, the Twins were to rely on a pair of rookies (and Dylan Bundy) to lead the rotation. They had confidence in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who have pitched pretty well when healthy this year but the rotation required a high-performing veteran who could anchor the group. 
The Twins made Sonny Gray that anchor, trading their 2021 first-round pick in Chase Petty to acquire him. Gray has made 14 starts and thrown 69 innings, a limited amount due to injuries. He’s posted a 3.52 ERA and 0.9 bWAR. It’d be fair to label his season as lukewarm, at least to this point. 
From 2019 to 2021, Gray was 35% better than the league average in terms of ERA. His 3.57 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ranked 18th among 79 starters who started at least 50 games. Gray followed up a similarly-mediocre first half of 2019 with a tremendous second half, posting a 2.12 ERA with 102 strikeouts in 85 innings. 
The Twins need pitching help, but the frontline starter version of Gray would be massive. He’s off to a good start, allowing just one run in six strong innings with seven strikeouts in Detroit on Sunday. 
2. Carlos Correa
Correa finished fifth in MVP voting in 2021 with 7.2 WAR in 148 games. He’s on pace for ~4 WAR in 122 games this year. There’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll eclipse that number. Correa got off to a plodding start, thanks to the lockout and an even-shorter spring training. Correa also missed 24 of the Twins’ first 96 games due to COVID and a finger injury. 
Offensively, Correa is posting nearly identical numbers to his outstanding 2021 season. He’s hitting .280 compared to .279 in 2021, and his OPS+ of 131 is the same. His season has been different defensively, where FanGraphs says he’s saved only two runs compared to a whopping 20 a year ago. 
Correa is a superstar, and Twins fans have seen flashes of him to this point. It’d be hard to argue he’s been the MVP-caliber player, primarily for reasons out of his control. He’s now healthy and geared up to produce at a very high level in the second half. 
If the Twins can hold off the Guardians and White Sox for the divisional crown, they’ll get to exploit a primary reason for acquiring Correa. He’s driven in 59 runs in 79 playoff games, already one of the best postseason performers ever. 
1. Byron Buxton
Buxton’s age-28 season has been unique. He’s hit 23 homers and produced 2.8 WAR, but he’s been in and out of the lineup with right knee problems, contributing to prolonged slumps. Buxton has started only 43 games in centerfield and recently received a PRP injection to help heal. 
Having confidence in Buxton remaining healthy enough to perform in the second half is difficult. He’s unlikely to reach 100% for the rest of the campaign. Buxton is also an undeniable talent, capable of changing games (and seasons) with his world-class defense and newfound power. 
A relatively healthy Buxton alters the scope of the Twins. This has remained true in 2022, even through his difficult stretches. Despite logging less than 400 innings in center, Buxton is tied for the league lead with seven Outs Above Average. Buxton has saved five runs, good for 5th in the AL among those who’ve spent 350+ innings in center. He's been incredible, as usual. 
One could argue that a healthy Buxton is the ultimate X factor in MLB. Since 2019, the Twins are 143-97 (96-win pace) when Buxton starts and 119-121 (80-win pace) when he doesn’t. That’s evidence enough to give the electric All-Star the top spot. 
What do you think about these rankings? Is there another X factor you feel was missing? Comment below!
 

I’ve watched countless veterans get a shot to wake up the echoes of past glory for the Minnesota Twins. In a tale as old as time, those veterans simply didn’t have it anymore, be that “it” talent, youth, conditioning, anabolic steroids, some cocktail of all these things, you name it. I’ve watched Steve Carlton and Sidney Ponson and Rondell White and Butch Huskey and Bret Boone and Joe Crede and Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco and Ramon Ortiz and Steve Howe and Roberto Kelly and Greg Myers and Pat Borders and Ruben Sierra and Greg Swindell and Mike Morgan and Todd Jones and Mike Fetters and Jesse Orosco and James Baldwin and Phil Nevin.
I’ve talked myself into Brian Fuentes as a possible closer. It feels good to admit this in a public forum. My shame is yours now.
Given all that I’ve learned, and knowing that for every Paul Molitor there are 145 Shane Rawleys, I want you to know what I think about Chris Archer.
I think he’s going to be just fine.
Given all the names I’ve listed without even mentioning John Candelaria, not even once, you are likely wondering why I think Archer will be perfectly adequate.
Because I need it very badly.
I could really use a good, solid Twins season in 2022. I say this knowing extremely well that 40% of the starting rotation are veterans trying to prove something after a bad year or years, 40% are just kids, and 20% is Sonny Gray. It’s challenging to be optimistic!
And yet. It’s going to be alright. Do I have proof of this? Of course not. But the fact remains, I’d really like for it to happen, and it feels like the universe owes us a kindness. Might that feeling just be a breakfast burrito repeating on me? Absolutely.
But this time, it’ll be different.

During the 2021 season, the Twins shifted 33.8% of the time, which ranked 11th in baseball. Only four AL teams shifted more than the Twins, with the Tigers being the lone AL Central team with a higher percentage of shifts. This compares very similarly to the last full season (2019), when Minnesota shifted 35.5% of the time, corresponding with Rocco Baldelli’s first year as manager. 

Compared to 2020, Minnesota shifted less often (down 7.5%) as they shifted the seventh-most of any team. These changes in shifts are likely tied to the regular defensive players. Andrelton Simmons is a significantly better defensive shortstop than Jorge Polanco, so the Twins needed to move infielders around more regularly in 2020. There were also changes in statistical data, with a shortened schedule due to the pandemic. 
Last season, only two teams ranked higher than Minnesota (68.2%) when it came to shifting against left-handed batters. The Astros shifted an eye-popping 81.5% of the time versus lefties, while the Dodgers (68.6%) were just fractions ahead of the Twins. Minnesota ranked 19th when it came to shifting against righties which was down over 23% compared to 2019. The Twins shifted the second most of any team during that season against right-handed hitters. 

Shift rates across baseball have dropped when facing right-handed hitters while shifts against lefties continue to rise. Minnesota had the second-largest shifting decline when facing right-handed hitters, but the team’s defensive players likely played a role in this downturn. Offensively, right-handed hitting Miguel Sano pulls the ball over 75% of the time, and teams shift against him close to 69% of the time. This was the highest shift rate for a right-handed hitter in 2021 with over 400 pitches. If teams feel like they are gaining an advantage, shifting will continue to happen no matter the handedness of the batter.  
Moving forward, Minnesota’s shifting tendencies in 2022 will be dictated by who the team adds at shortstop and who is in the starting rotation. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are the two biggest free-agent shortstops available, but there is no indication Minnesota is in the market for either of those players. However, a Simmons reunion may provide the best defensive alignment to help the team’s pitching staff.

Royce Lewis and Austin Martin, the team’s top two prospects, also fit into the defensive discussion for 2022. Lewis is coming back from a knee injury, and there’s hope he can at least begin his big-league career as a shortstop. Few believe Martin can stick at short, and his eventual defensive position will likely be second base or in the outfield. Both players can debut during the 2022 campaign, and Minnesota may shift more regularly to put them in the best defensive position.

Major League Baseball is also discussing banning the defensive shift in some capacity, which will have long-term ramifications on offensive and defensive numbers. As recently as this summer, baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke on why the shift could be banned. 

“Let’s just say you regulated the shift by requiring two infielders on each side of second base. What does that do? It makes the game look like what it looked like when I was 12 years old,” he said. “It’s not change. It’s kind of restoration, right? That’s why people are in favor of it. And they do believe, I think front offices, in general, believe it would have a positive effect on the play of the game.” 

Not everyone will agree, but the Twins may have to shift their strategy if there are rule changes for the coming season. Do you think MLB needs to ban shifts? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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Bobby Darwin was the first of these successors to Tony Oliva, having his breakout season with the Twins in 1972. Darwin was initially signed as a pitcher to start his professional career. Born and raised in Los Angeles, Darwin lucked out being born in 1943 as he was at the ripe age of 18 when the newly-formed Los Angeles Angels expansion team entered MLB in 1961. 
Shortly after signing a contract with the Angels before the 1962 season, Darwin made his MLB debut on September 30, 1962, starting the game for the Halos. His first MLB start was not how Darwin likely wanted to break into the big leagues at 19 years old, only going 3 1/3 innings and giving up four runs on eight hits and four walks to Cleveland. 
His pitching woes continued throughout the 1960s. He had some success and several struggles on the mound. Consistency was certainly an issue in the minor leagues. Darwin returned to the majors briefly in 1969, seven years after his debut, for six games.
It went so well that in 1970 he became a full-time outfielder in the Dodgers system. He had always been a good hitter for a pitcher, so it was worth trying. In 86 games that year in the minor leagues, he hit .297 with 23 home runs and 70 RBI. In 91 games in 1971 in the minors, he hit .293/.342/.517 (.859) with 17 homers and 55 RBI. He returned to the big leagues for 11 more games. He went 5-for-20 (.250) a homer in 11 games.
Darwin landed in Twins territory following that 1971 season in a trade with the Dodgers for center field prospect Paul Powell. The newfound success for Darwin in the minor leagues as an outfielder was enough for the Twins to give him a chance for his first entire MLB season in 1972. Darwin didn’t miss a beat on that opportunity. 
Now 29, 1972 was Bobby Darwin’s breakout season. Twins manager Bill Rigney found a way to get Darwin in the lineup almost every day, leading the team in games played with 145 (out of 154 games).
Darwin hit .267/.326/.442 (.769) with 20 doubles, 22 homers, and 80 RBI. He also struck out 145 times which remained the Twins single-season record until Brian Dozier struck out 148 times in his All-Star 2015 season. A year later, Miguel Sano struck out 178 times, and last season he topped that mark with 183 strikeouts. 
In 1973, Darwin again played in 145 games. He hit .252/.309/.391 (.701) with 20 doubles, 18 homers, and 90 RBI. Despite 52 more plate appearances, Darwin struck out 137 times. 
For the third straight season, Bobby Darwin led the Twins in strikeouts, this time with 127 strikeouts in 630 plate appearances. In 152 games in 1974, he hit .264/.322/.442 (.764) with 13 doubles, seven triples, 25 homers, and 94 RBI. Only Rod Carew played in more games than Darwin, and he played in 153 games.
He began the 1975 season with the Twins. In 48 games, he hit .219/.307/.343 (650) with six doubles and five homers in 48 games. He was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in mid-June for outfielder Johnny Briggs.  
The quick three-season peak of his career was entering its decline in those 48 games, but Darwin turned his season around with his chance in Milwaukee. Following the 1975 season, Darwin split time his final two seasons between the Brewers, Cubs, and Red Sox, retiring after the conclusion of the 1977 season. 
Darwin was one of the fortunate Twins from 1970 to 1972 that had the chance to be teammates with five future Hall of Famers; Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew, Bert Blyleven, Tony Oliva, and Jim Kaat. Darwin found himself as the successor to Oliva and started a lineage that would see an African-American player starting in right field for the Twins almost every day from 1972-1980. 
Those at Twins Daily would also like to wish Bobby Darwin a happy 79th birthday today!

The international free agent signing period will get underway on January 15th. After being delayed by the pandemic, the current crop of IFAs can sign with MLB teams provided they turn 17 before September 1st, 2022. This week at Twins Daily, Cody Christie and I will look at the Twins history in International Free Agency, dating back to 2009. What were the Twins' biggest swings and misses? Where did they acquire or miss out on value? Later in the week, we’ll provide offensive and defensive profiles for three prospects likely to sign with the Twins.
Note: The current MLB lockout WILL NOT impact international free agent signing as this period has been delayed since last summer.
2009 - The 99th Percentile Outcome Year
In 2009, the Twins had a defining year in international free agency. They signed:
Miguel Sano to a $3.15 million signing bonus Max Kepler to an $800,000 signing bonus Jorge Polanco to a $700,000 signing bonus  The majority of international free agents don’t make it to the majors, let alone have multi-year MLB careers, let alone get extended by the teams that signed them. To have signed three players which fit that description in one signing cycle is a remarkable outcome. It’s not melodramatic to suggest that the IFA period in 2009 changed the trajectory of the Twins franchise.
In 2021, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco formed core pieces in the Twins lineup. Kepler and Polanco, in particular, are signed to owner-friendly long-term deals. Last season, the three combined for 6.2 fWAR, just south of $50 million in value. Not bad for a $4.6 million investment.
2013 - 2017 - Twins Find Value, Miss on Big Names
In 2013, the Twins signed a diminutive Venezuelan infielder to a $40,000 signing bonus. For an international free agent, this money is an afterthought, a lottery ticket. Throughout six MiLB seasons, he managed a .310 AVG, and .385 OBP. He already had a nickname when he came into the Twins system, ‘La Regadera’ (the sprinkler) due to his ability to spray the ball all over the field. His name? Luis Arraez. Arraez is a great reminder that international free agency is a lottery. Often the biggest name prospects underachieve, and players signed to middling or small bonuses can become superstars.
In 2014 the Twins signed Huascar Ynoa for an $800,000 bonus. He was later traded to Atlanta for Jaime Garcia. Ynoa put up 1.4 fWAR in just 17 starts for the Braves in 2021, managing a 27% K%. Another significant free-agent signing in 2014 was from the Diamondbacks organization. Jhoan Duran, a lanky, hard-throwing RHP, signed for just $65,000. He’s now the #5 overall prospect in the Twins organization.
In 2015 the Twins went bigger, signing Wander Javier, the #8 overall prospect, to a $4 million bonus. Javier’s career has been largely derailed by injuries. He struck out 34% of the time and managed just a 86 wRC+ at A+ Cedar Rapids in 2021.  
Gilberto Celestino was also signed by the Astros in 2015. The #7 prospect came to the Twins by way of the Ryan Pressly trade. Lastly, of note, two prospects further down the MLB Pipeline rankings in 2015? Juan Soto (#22) and Fernando Tatis Jr (#27). 
2018 - Current - Too Early to Tell
It’s difficult to draw conclusions from 2018 onwards as prospects have had limited time in the minors, particularly when considering a lost 2020 season. In 2018, Misael Urbina was signed to a $2.75 million bonus. The Venezuelan OF struggled at A ball last season, but with time on his side at just 19 years old, is an extremely promising prospect and ranked #12 overall in the Twins system.
Emmanuel Rodriguez was the big get in 2019. He was signed to a $2.5 million bonus. The left-handed OF is currently the Twins #20 overall prospect, after being ranked #8 in his international free agent class. Rodriguez’s professional career began in earnest in 2021, where he managed a 124 wRC+ and slugged 10 HR in just 37 games. Rodriguez is one to keep an eye on in 2022.
Finally, in 2020, the Twins signed Danny De Andrade, another diminutive infield prospect, who currently sits at #24 in the Twins system. Ranked as the #16 IFA in his class, De Andrade projects as a strong hitter for both average and solid power and has the defensive chops to remain at shortstop. De Andrade managed a .340 OBP in his first season with the DSL Twins.
What’s Next?
International scouting, and free agency, is a complex, challenging lottery. For a mid-market organization like the Twins, it’s critical in adding organizational talent, and potentially, adding impact MLB level talent. Throughout the week, Cody and I will have offensive and defensive profiles of the three major prospects linked to Minnesota, starting tomorrow with the younger brother of an MLB superstar.
 

The Minnesota Twins pitching staff was 24th in baseball when combining all arms, and the starters alone were a spot lower at 25th. There’s no denying that the group needs to be much better, and right now, the group is made up of three arms. There’s more depth behind them, and there’s a man in charge that once led a strong rotation. That’s where much of this focus should come.
 
Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober
These two need to establish that they are solid major-league starters. They looked the part a year ago, and continuing that growth in 2022 is a must. Ryan made just a handful of starts but held his own, even looking dominant at times. Ober saw teams multiple times and was able to make adjustments. When looking at the farm last winter, both would have been unexpected contributors, and that’s the kind of breakouts any organization loves to have.
 
Dylan Bundy
Proving he’s not 2021 bad would be a great start. The former top prospect is not the 3.29 ERA he posted in 2020, but he’s also not the 6.06 ERA he had a season ago. For what Minnesota paid him, and where the Twins need him in the rotation, Bundy being a low 4.00 ERA guy is a must. The strikeouts need to move back up over one per inning and allowing two longballs per nine can’t continue to be a thing. There’s a solid pitcher here and maybe a very good one in terms of a mid-rotation arm. Find that.
 
Wes Johnson
Back to the overall numbers of this starting staff. Johnson coached his group last season to the fifth-worst finish in baseball. In 2020, the Twins staff was the third-best. In 2019, the rotation came in fourth. Johnson has shown an ability to work with pitchers and get the most out of them. Michael Pineda became arguably the best version of himself, Kenta Maeda took steps forward, and something was made out of nothing in a couple of situations. Johnson is seen as a velocity savant but can impact much more than that. Minnesota may have the least talented group they’ve had during his tenure when 2022 starts, but Wes getting more out of each of them remains a must.
 
Randy Dobnak
You don’t make it to the majors by mistake, and you certainly don’t start a Postseason game by luck. Dobnak’s 7.64 ERA last season was as much his ineffectiveness as it was Minnesota’s indecisiveness. Having worked entirely as a starter during 2020, Dobnak was used as one in less than half his appearances a year ago. The talk of velocity boosts and missed bats in Spring Training was never present, and I’d imagine his confidence was consistently shaken with no set role. Work him back as a starter, implore him to get the job done, and utilize him the same way that bore fruit previously.
 
Stay tuned for the next installment, where the bullpen comes under fire.
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ZiPS is a computer projection system that was created by senior writer at Fangraphs, Dan Szymborski in the early 2000s. ZiPS uses a mixture of past performance, similar player comparisons as well as aging curve to project out how a player will perform that next season. Important to note, ZiPS does not project playing time for each individual player, but rather gives numbers for what a player's statistics would be if they were named the starter on the team.
1. Miranda Mania Coming?
2022 ZiPS Projection: .272/.316/.432
No. 1 Player Comp: Mike Lowell

Jose Miranda had one of the best Minor League seasons in Minnesota Twins history in 2021 and the hype for his 2022 season is starting to pick up. While it’s no sure thing that Jose Miranda will start the season with the Twins, these ZiPS projections seem to think that he could hold his own in the Big Leagues. Szymborski’s projections have Miranda projected with an OPS+ of 103, which would have been the 6th best OPS+ on the 2021 Twins. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t even a top-10 prospect heading into last season.
Miranda’s number one player comp will definitely draw some looks as well, Mike Lowell. Lowell was a four-time all-star and also won a gold glove during his time with the Marlins and Red Sox.
2. Keep an Eye on Kerrigan
2022 ZiPS Projection: .221/.272/.373, 14 DRS

A prospect name that hasn’t been included in many Twins conversations over the past year has been outfielder prospect, Jimmy Kerrigan. In Szymborski’s 2022 projections, Kerrigan was pegged with a defensive projection of 14 defensive runs saved. In the 2021 season just four players in all of baseball accumulated at least 14 defensive runs saved.
Kerrigan’s glove is real, but the X-Factor in Kerrigan’s development as a prospect will be his bat. ZiPS only pegs Kerrigan as a .645 OPS batter, however that is a number higher than Willians Astudillo, Jake Cave and Andrelton Simmons produced in 2021. In 398 plate appearances with the St. Paul Saints in 2021, Kerrigan posted a .814 OPS with 19 home runs.
3. Projections Don’t Love Royce Lewis
2022 ZiPS Projection: .227/.270/.342
No. 1 Player Comp: Jhonny Perez

While the ZiPS projections are excited about the potential of Jose Miranda and Jimmy Kerrigan, they are equally down on the potential of Royce Lewis in 2022. Szymborski’s system has Lewis pegged for a lowly .612 OPS and a negative defensive contribution. Royce Lewis is in for a pivotal season in 2022, as he has not truly played baseball since 2019 and hasn’t played well since 2018.
4. The Computers Are Just As Pessimistic about the Twins’ Starting Rotation as You Are

Much has been said and written about the Minnesota Twins lack of action on the free agent starting pitching market this offseason. The front office’s lack of activity has left the Twins with a starting rotation featuring Randy Dobnak, Dylan Bundy, and a host of rookies. As a result, the projections for the Twins’s starting rotation are quite poor. While ZiPS is fairly optimistic on both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober (4.11 and 4.22 ERAs, respectively), not a single pitcher in the Twins’ rotation is projected to eclipse 2.1 WAR in 2022. By comparison, the 2019 Twins had four different pitchers produce an fWAR above 2.1.
5. Fangraphs Doesn’t Think Jorge Polanco’s 2021 Season Was a Fluke

The MVP of the 2021 Minnesota Twins unquestionably was Jorge Polanco. In a season where almost nothing went right, Polanco completely dominated the season and put up the best numbers in his career. While it’s natural to think that Polanco might regress in 2022, the ZiPS projections think that Polanco will actually improve at the plate next season. These projections peg Polanco for pacing the Twins in fWAR and posting the second best OPS on the team after Byron Buxton.
What stands out to you from these ZiPS projections. What player projections are the most promising and worrying? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

The show was taped earlier this offseason, but until today Park has been forbidden from admitting he was a contestant, and is still bound to secrecy about how the episode turns out. He prepared throughout spring training and the season for the competition, and even coaxed the producers of the show to delay his appearance until after the Twins’ season ended.
Park will compete against “Jeopardamy”, Amy Schneider, who has dominated the competition recently. She has already won $536,400 during her 13-game win streak, moving her into 4th place in Jeopardy! all-time winnings list for regular players. TheJeopardyFan.com predicts a 24-game win streak for her, which would give her a 91.956% chance of continuing her streak through 14 games, which would of course mean a one-and-done for Do.
But don’t count our guy Do out. Park graduated in 2017 from Stanford with both a master’s and bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering and another master’s in computer science. He also graduated from St. Paul Central early . The kid has some serious game. Can he perform a Twins-vs-the-Yankees level upset?  Tune in this Monday (locally) at 4:30 PM on KARE11 to find out.

As we begin the dead period induced by the end of the current CBA, the rest of the AL Central continues to improve while the Twins stand pat. The Tigers and Javy Baez agreed on a six-year, $140 million contract Tuesday, frustratingly adding a premier shortstop to the division, in a position of need for the Twins.
In spite of the understandable pessimism with which Twins fandom has greeted the beginning of free agency, the Byron Buxton extension still provides a spark of optimism for me. I simply cannot see a team extending an MVP-caliber center fielder and not continuing to build around him.
Earlier this week, I looked at the Reds as an ideal trade candidate in the Twins search for playoff-caliber starting pitching. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the Oakland Athletics, who appear to be on the cusp of a rebuild after a disappointing 2021. The A's off-season got off to a disastrous start when manager Bob Melvin was coaxed to San Diego. Long-term stadium troubles and the exit of premier players like Mark Canha may make for a long winter in northern California. So who does Oakland have? Why should the Twins want them? And what might it take to acquire them?
Chris Bassitt

If the Twins want to contend for the AL Central in 2022, Bassitt should be their number one target from Oakland. Despite his season being derailed by a facial fracture sustained in August, Bassitt had a memorable season. He amassed career-highs in fWAR (3.3), K/9 (9.1), and managed a 3.34 FIP over just 157 innings. The primary downside to Bassitt is he’s a free agent in 2023, so the Twins would only be acquiring one year of Bassitt, which would make him a little cheaper than other options.
Potential trade: Twins trade OF Trevor Larnach to Oakland for RHP Chris Bassitt
Frankie Montas

Montas really put it together last season with the A's. In 2021, he managed 4.1 fWAR, 9.96 K/9 and a 3.37 FIP while throwing a 97 mph heater and an exceptional slider. Montas is under contract until 2024, and at 28, has age on his side. Consequently, his price would be more expensive than other starting pitching options with two years of team control.
Potential Trade: Twins trade INF Luis Arraez and INF Keoni Cavaco to Oakland for RHP Frankie Montas
Sean Manaea

Manaea comprises the left-handed prong of Oaklands top three starting pitchers, and similarly to Montas and Bassitt, had his best season to date in 2021 (which Nash Walker recently covered). Manaea managed 3.3 fWAR, 9.7 K/9 and a 3.66 FIP over 179 innings of work. Manaea also has some injury history and less explosive stuff than Montas or Bassitt, his fastball sitting at around 91 mph. Manaea is a free agent in 2023 and unless the asking price is cheaper than my trade proposal, I wouldn’t pursue him strongly if I were the Twins as there are too many orange flags.
Potential trade: The Twins trade C Mitch Garver to Oakland for LHP Sean Manaea
What would you offer in a trade with Oakland? Which of their starting pitchers appeals to you the most?
 

The New York Post’s Joel Sherman also listed the Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Rangers and Angels as suitors for Ray’s services, and previously the Red Sox and Blue Jays had been mentioned. However, it’s worth noting that several of these teams have already signed free agent pitchers this offseason, perhaps limiting their interest. For instance, the Blue Jays reportedly now have an agreement with another of the other four premier pitchers on this list, Kevin Gausman. 
On the other hand, who wouldn’t want to add Ray? Last year he posted a 2.84 ERA over 193.1 innings, striking out 11.5 per nine innings. Most importantly, the 30-year-old’s career struggles with his control completely disappeared: he walked only 2.4 batters per nine innings, after averaging 5.1 per nine from 2018-2020.
If the Twins want to play, they’ll need to pay. MLBTradeRumors predicted Ray would receive a $130M contract, 5-year deal on the open market. Given some of the other contracts we’re seeing, that estimate may be a little high, but any deal would certainly exceed $100M. 
What’s more, they’ll also likely need to move fast. The two premier pitchers who are at least very close to greements - Gausman and Max Scherzer - have done so in in the last 24 hours as teams and players scramble to get something done before MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on Wednesday. It is widely anticipate that event will lead to a work stoppage, effectively killing the offseason market for both sides. That urgency is further heightened by concerns that normally mundane details, like getting physicals done, will need to be completed by then for contracts to be valid. 
The Twins entered the offseason with at least three spots in their starting rotation to fill, and as of yet have not signed any free agents. They did, however, reach an agreement yesterday with star center fielder Byron Buxton on a 7-year extension. But starting pitching remains the team’s biggest need, and the available arms are dwindling fast. Even beyond the top four arms, other highly attractive targets like Noah Syndegaard, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony Desclafini and many others have signed within the last two weeks. 
 

On Tuesday, Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal bylined a report in The Athletic with the headline: Byron Buxton’s future with the Twins remains in limbo as team gauges trade interest, potential extension offers. The article depicts a team struggling to decide whether it should trade its best player with one year remaining under contract, or hold him for the 2022 season.
The option that seems most obvious and desirable — striking a long-term extension with this generational talent in his prime — doesn't really seem to be on the table, even if it hasn't been ruled out.
"Chairman Jim Pohlad, according to major-league sources, is reluctant to move Buxton, knowing such a decision potentially would upset a fan base tired of seeing the team part with homegrown stars," per The Athletic. 
Pohlad's absolutely right in his assessment of how trading Buxton will be perceived by Twins fans, who just watched Jose Berrios sign an extension with Toronto. Fortunately, it would seem nobody is in better position than he to ensure Buxton sticks around. Pohlad and his ownership group have the power to greenlight an offer that keeps Buxton in Minnesota long-term, and such a framework — from all indications — is extremely achievable under team-friendly terms.
The article from Hayes and Rosenthal reiterates that a 7-year, $80 million offer was extended in July, which we've heard before, but later offers up this detail: "Sources said talks about an incentive-laden extension in July broke down because of the Twins’ unwillingness to push the potential total value to $100 million."
Back in July, reports indicated Buxton's side was amenable to that guaranteed amount of $80 million (which surprised me), but that an agreement couldn't be reached over the incentive structure. In my mind, I figured Buxton's camp must have been demanding some extravagant bonuses that could've done something like double the base amount.
Yet, the wording of this new report — talks about an incentive-laden extension in July broke down because of the Twins’ unwillingness to push the potential total value to $100 million — well, that sure sounds like the team was not open to a contract that would maximize at $100 million.
And if true, that's nothing short of embarrassing. Shameful. And egregiously foolish.
I mean, come on, that would average out to about $14 million per year. That's Ricky Nolasco money, for a homegrown MVP-caliber player in his prime years. 
I'm having a really hard time connecting the dots here. If Twins ownership is adamant about keeping Buxton, and the center fielder's side is open to a reasonable deal, then what is the hold-up? 
Why are the Twins mired in internal debate over whether to trade Buxton or let him leave as a free agent, rather than opting for the best choice, which is neither of those?
Here are a few possibilities I can conjure. If you have others, I'd love to hear them in the comments.
The reported numbers are inaccurate. Hayes and Rosenthal are two of the more respected writers in the biz, and I trust they're providing a realistic view of the overall dynamic, but that doesn't mean every single detail is spot-on. Perhaps there are some specifics getting obscured in the communication loop. Or maybe they're receiving false info from a biased source with an agenda. (Ostensibly, this would be Buxton's agent, but I'm not sure what their end-game would be in leaking a low-ball offer?) Also: the numbers that've been reported would have be a loooong ways off to not make sense for the Twins.
The Twins front office doesn't believe in Buxton. Or at least doesn't have enough confidence in his durability and aging regression to feel that a long-term extension is in their interest. I find this kind of hard to believe, but when you look at the evidence available to us — an owner expressing his desire to retain a player who is seemingly open to reasonable terms, and a front office that isn't making it happen — it's a plausible explanation. 
Buxton has no interest in signing an extension in Minnesota. This would run contrary to what he's said publicly, but it'd hardly be the first time a pro athlete gave lip service to appease fans. Maybe the bridge truly was burned when the Twins held Buxton in the minors in September of 2018. Or maybe Buck has a yearning to return to the South where he was raised. Or maybe he simply recognizes an opportunity to earn a much bigger payday one year from now if he can deliver in 2022. Sadly, I think this is probably the most likely answer behind everything, and also the only one that completely ties the Twins' hands.
Pohlad is bluffing, and doesn't really want to pay up. It's the favored explanation for many, I'm sure. Maybe it's true, and Pohlad is portraying himself to media as the good guy who fought for Buxton before an inevitable trade. But if the reported number he's targeting is anywhere close to correct, there's no reason that Twins shouldn't be able to keep Buxton while building a quality team around him under the payroll parameters that have become standard under this ownership. 
One thing I will say: if Pohlad is pushing to prevent a Buxton trade solely to mitigate fan blowback, knowing the team won't be able to re-sign him (which is one way to read the opening in the Athletic article), the front office needs to shut him out and not listen. Team strategy cannot be dictated by such factors. 
Trading Buxton will be a bitter pill to swallow, but it may result in making the best of a bad situation. A totally self-inflicted bad situation, if reports around these negotiations are to be believed.
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Luis Arraez is one of the most fun players on the Twins roster. Everything from his unmatched ability to get the barrel to the ball to his aggressive head shaking after taking a pitch is entertaining to watch. He wasn’t much of a top prospect, but has made the most of his opportunity after being called up in 2019 due to injuries. Little has changed with Luis Arraez the player, but the Twins’ perception of him may have.
Arraez appeared to be the second baseman of the future when he arrived in 2019. The energy and variety he brought to a record-setting power team made it easy to imagine slotting him into the middle infield for years to come. Amid all of that excitement, however, it was easy to overlook his defensive shortcomings. 
Fast-forward two years. Luis Arraez holds a .313/.374/.403 batting line. He’s more than held up his side of the bargain offensively. In those two years however, so much around him has changed. Jorge Polanco made the permanent switch to Arraez’s home position, pushing him into a rotation between second, third, and corner outfield. The Twins have also signed Josh Donaldson, and now Jose Miranda appears to be the future of the hot corner in Minnesota. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach debuted and will get solid MLB time in 2022 with several corner outfielders shortly behind them in the minors. 
Having too many quality players is far from a problem, but the real concern comes from the quickly mounting injury history. At 24 years old, he’s suffered significant injuries to both knees, the side effects of which can commonly be seen on the base paths or following awkward swings. In 2020, injury cost Arraez 28 games out of the 60 game season. In 2021, Arraez missed 41 games and looked to be fighting through some kind of injury a good amount of the time.
Unfortunately the game of baseball is unforgiving, and it’s rare to see such long standing recurring knee issues improve with age. Is it possible the Twins see more value in shopping Luis Arraez on the trade market?
Regarding highly sought after defensive positions (and positions the Twins have a need at), Arraez can’t fill in at shortstop or center field. He’s also not particularly strong at the positions he does play. In Outs Above Average per Statcast, he was worth -1 in left field, -1 at third base and -3 at second. His defensive flexibility consists of positions that are easy to fill on the market if the Twins already emerging long term solutions there don’t work out as planned.
This is not to say the Twins should necessarily actively look to dump Luis Arraez. Heading into 2022 with him platooning and spelling starters to get his bat in the lineup would be far from a bad thing. That being said, everything good about Luis Arraez makes him a valuable trade asset. His bat is special, he’s incredibly cheap and controllable, and he isn’t locked into one single position. In regards to assets the Twins have on their roster to trade, it may not get any better than Luis Arraez.
 
It would be a difficult decision, but someone like Max Kepler or Miguel Sano wouldn’t bring in any kind of impact arm the Twins will certainly be looking for. It may be easy for them to look over the roster and see Arraez as a solid bat in the lineup that’s buried at several positions. They may also weigh the long term health gamble on his knees which could continue costing him significant time.
Should the Twins trade Luis Arraez? That question likely has a lot to do with what they can get in return. It’s safe to say the idea has crossed their mind however, and possibly could be looked at more closely this winter for a roster that needs a significant shakeup. Should the Twins even consider it? Let us know below.
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Twins Daily usually stays between the lines as regards content. However, when the best catcher in team history sends a movie review to our Friday correspondent, we disregard the baseball aspect. What follows is Joe Mauer’s review of the 2021 film Dune, now available on HBO Max and in theaters nationwide.
Hey guys. I watched the movie Dune at mom’s house. She usually gets sore when me or Jake (Mauer, Joe’s younger brother) watch HBO there because they show S-E-X stuff at night, but I told her this was more like the Star Wars so she let it slide.
I wasn’t even telling stories to Mom there, I really thought this was a Star Wars movie. Remember when Luke Skywalker was just driving around the desert with his cool grampa and the robots from England? It was a whole bunch of dunes! Easy mistake to make if you’re asking me.
I was wrong. No funny robots or Han Solo, I tell you what. I guess this movie involves Timothy Huggybear or whatever and the one young woman from Shake It Up on Disney Channel and they’re trying to find a bunch of spices and get into adventures? I’ll be honest, it was real tough to follow.
The thing is, I knew it was going to be a real weirdo beardo, because my friend Glen (Perkins, former Twins pitcher) told me there was a Dune that came out when I was born with the guy from Twin Peaks and the Police rock band and it was super cool. The thing is Glen always mixes his lies with the truth to mess with me so I knew he was busting my chops lol. Also he might be the devil? Mom’s kinda on the fence about him.
Anyway, when Timothy Chandelier and Shake It Up Chicago go on their adventure, it’s pretty fun. I couldn’t follow it all that closely because Jake kept hucking wiffle balls at me while I was trying to watch the ding-dang movie. But the parts I could watch before Jake put Bob Seger on the Bluetooth speakers looked really fun.
Anyway, I guess I’d watch this again. Have a great weekend, guys.
Stay golden,
Joe

Let's just be upfront about this. The utilityman market isn’t incredibly ripe with players this winter. This is directly referencing Dodgers star Chris Taylor. After years in the October spotlight with Los Angeles, yet another standout postseason performance in 2021 has Twins fans dreaming, and for good reason. It’s a fun idea and Taylor is a great player who would make any team better, but the Twins shouldn’t be chomping at the bit to bring him in.
Taylor was a marginal minor league player in Seattle before being traded to LA for a guy who wound up throwing 12 MLB innings. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto later called the trade “clearly the worst deal I’ve ever made”, as Taylor’s current career line sits at .261/.337/.443, 11% above average offensively. That doesn’t even tell the story of Taylor’s ability to play just about any position on the diamond as needed. So why shouldn’t the Twins plan to bring in such a player?
To state the obvious, the team is an absolute mess. I do believe their needs can be addressed this winter in a way that returns them to contention, but a utilityman is far from the top of the list. There are currently two starting pitchers in the 2022 starting rotation. I’d guess the Twins want to bring in at least 4 candidates to fill those vacancies, which is going to cost a decent amount of money if done correctly.
In addition, they’ll likely also want at least a proven bullpen arm or two. Taylor Rogers will be a question mark if brought back due to his finger injury and Tyler Duffey’s 2021 made him a much bigger question mark than in years past. You’d have to hope they plan on signing legitimate pieces this winter rather than cheap bounce back candidates and players all 29 other teams have passed on. That’ll cost a good bit of cash as well.
It could be argued that the vacancy at shortstop could be filled by the versatile Taylor. He was fine defensively there in 2021 to be fair although at 31 he’s nearing a point where shortstop defense tends to decline rapidly. Taylor has surely earned himself a long term deal, however, which may not be in the Twins best interest in the future. The hope is for someone like Royce Lewis to take the reins at shortstop relatively soon, and what becomes of Taylor then? Sure, he can cover most other positions, but that kind of versatility may be less valuable to the Twins than other teams.
People already raise the concern of Luis Arraez getting enough at bats across a full season due to not having a full time spot. He gets his starts spelling Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco or one of the corner outfielders in order to get into the lineup regularly. The only other position Taylor would be truly needed at is backing up in center field, a job that can be filled for much cheaper in free agency.
To be clear, Taylor would absolutely make the Twins better. They would likely prefer a stopgap type shortstop, but he would be useful at other positions if their plans with Royce Lewis come to fruition. After all, having too many options is a good problem to have. That being said, I think now is the wrong time to sign a player like Chris Taylor. Nobody can say exactly where this team is in their contention window and there are significant question marks around highly impactful players like Byron Buxton. There are gaping holes across the roster and unless ownership is truly willing to throw down some dollars, it’s not worth shortchanging themselves elsewhere for added versatility.
If they run into a 2019 Marwin Gonzalez situation where come Spring Training he’s still looking for a place to go, there would be nothing wrong with being opportunistic if it’s in the budget. The Twins have bigger needs to address on the front end of free agency, however, and Chris Taylor should be nowhere near priority number one. Now just isn’t the right time.
 
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Before we get into those three items, here’s a video that takes a bit of a deeper look at where the Giants and Red Sox were the past couple years and how they re-emerged after quiet offseasons.
You Don’t Need A Rebuild
All that recent success makes it easy to forget neither the Giants or Red Sox made the postseason the past two years (four years for the Giants). That’s especially noteworthy since 16 teams qualified for the playoffs in last year’s shortened season.
With aging rosters and former stars on bloated contracts, both orgs were in the type of position where rebuilding had to have been considered. Yes, Boston traded away Mookie Betts prior to last season, but they never turned it into a full-on tear down, throw in the towel type situation.
Meanwhile, several of the league’s bottom teams repeat their place in the standings year after year. Some organizations like the Houston Astros have made rebuilds work in the not-so-distant past, but they are looking more like the exception than the rule.
Re-tooling can work.
You Don’t Need A Flashy Offseason
The Twins spent more on free agents this past offseason than both the Giants and Red Sox. The Twins shelled out $41.75 million while the Giants spent $41.35 million and the Red Sox were at $38.95 million. On the flip side, those teams actually acquired a greater number of players (10 signed for the Giants and eight for Boston), choosing to spread the wealth more than the Twins (six players).
Meanwhile, the top two spending teams last winter (the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies) and three of the top-five spenders (adding the New York Mets) all missed the playoffs. And if there’s any team that “won” the 2020-21 offseason it was the San Diego Padres. That’s where their winning streak ended.
The offseason most definitely matters — the 2021 Twins are as much proof of that as any team — but big splashes and flashy signings (or lack thereof) still don’t guarantee anything.
You Don’t Need A Lavish Bullpen
There are some expensive, big-name bullpens among this year’s playoff participants but Boston and San Francisco are not among them. 
The Red Sox have a couple of highly-paid members of their bullpen, but Garrett Richards isn’t there by design (he was signed as a starter) and Adam Ottavino was acquired as a salary dump. It’s not as if either of those guys is exactly a difference-maker, either.
In fact, the Red Sox bullpen leader in WAR was Garrett Whitlock, their Rule 5 pick. They had eight different pitchers record saves in the second half alone, including former Twins great Hansel Robles.
The Giants have done even more with a great deal less invested. They signed Jake McGee to a modest two-year, $7 million deal, just $2 million of which was paid this season. Oh, and he was their highest-paid reliever. McGee ended up as one of only nine pitchers to save 30 games this season. 
San Francisco had a handful of underpaid studs in their pen including Tyler Rogers, Jarlin Garcia, Jose Alvarez, Zack Littell (ouch) and Dominic Leone. When McGee went down, however, it was rookie Camilo Doval who stepped up and was the National League reliever of the month for September. He had a 4.99 ERA and a 7.0 BB/9 in 28 games at Triple-A this season!
Sometimes a reliever just happens. That’s exactly the kind of thing the Twins need next year.
The Giants ranked sixth in bullpen WAR (per FanGraphs) and the Red Sox were ninth, a spot ahead of the Mets, who ended the year with four of the top-20 paid relievers in baseball (Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Trevor May and Edwin Diaz). The Mets also only won four more games than the Twins this year.
The Twins have a long way to go from 89 losses back to contention, but they don’t need to tear it down, have an extravagant offseason or spend big on risky bullpen arms to do so. The Giants and Red Sox are proof of that.