DocBauer

‘In these rounds, you’re looking for something special, something unique’, Sean Johnson, Scouting Director for the Minnesota Twins offered, reflecting on day 2 of the 2022 MLB Draft. Johnson went on to highlight the organization's focus on unique tools coupled with breakout performances as two elements used to hone in on talent. In Ben Ross, the Twins landed a prospect with plenty of interesting clay to mold. 
With the 144th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins selected Ben Ross, a shortstop out of Notre Dame College in Ohio. The school only started its baseball program in 2005. In 2013, they jumped from NAIA to Division II. Hence, Ross was not ranked in Baseball America’s Top 500 prospects heading into the draft. He signed for the Twins for $220,000, significant savings on the $398,500 draft slot. The savings from Ross and others were later applied to talented shortstop Omari Daniel, who the Twins pried away from a commitment to Oregon, in the 14th round.
Scouting Notes
Ross is a 6’1 shortstop and an exceptional athlete. While Ross may not have been highly ranked on draft boards, he’s exactly the kind of breakout athlete the Twins target on Day 2 of the draft. Ross has a compact swing and is short to the ball. Ross had an all-around breakout in his final season at Notre Dame College, putting together 14 home runs, 60 RBI, a .747 SLG, and 15 stolen bases in 17 attempts in 52 games. Not bad.
Ross’s breakout continued in the summer in advance of the draft after playing in the Northwoods League (a college wood bat league). Ross hit .421/.502/.649 with 10 HR, 27 BB, and 28 K. Ross has a plus run tool and is an intelligent base runner and successful base stealer. He has an above-average arm and an athletic profile that could play all over the diamond. Ross’s swing is such that he should be able to continue his power breakout with a short, powerful stroke.
Ben Ross debuted in late 2022, playing two games of Rookie ball before being promoted to Low-A Fort Myers. In his first 22 games, Ross managed a .371 OBP (.817 OPS), with three homers and 13 RBI. Ross was also 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts, an impressive debut for the 21-year-old.
Likely to Start At: Low-A Fort Myers
It’s likely Ross begins 2023 with a deep group of young prospects at Fort Myers. He will have a whole season to show he can continue to translate his exceptional athleticism into tangible developments on the field. Some fans might grumble at Ross’s low ranking or placement on pre-draft lists; I’d argue he’s a name to watch in the low minors in 2023. 
What did you think of the Ben Ross pick? What do you think his ceiling is with the Twins?
For more Ben Ross content on Twins Daily, click here. 

Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco
Likely Backup: Donovan Solano
Depth: Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Tanner Schobel
THE GOOD
In the 2021 season, his first spent playing second base, Polanco ranked fifth among MLB players at the position with 4.2 fWAR, instantly establishing himself as an elite player at his new infield home. 
He launched 33 homers, drove in 98 runs, and was an easy choice for Twins Daily MVP. Polanco provided middle-of-the-order production from a middle-of-the-infield spot, which is a recipe for huge value. The Twins will hope to get him back there in the season ahead.
Polanco's absence in September last year was jarring: he's one of the few Twins players who has been able to avoid the injured list in his career, ranking second only to Max Kepler in plate appearances for the franchise since 2017. 
If Rocco Baldelli can reliably write Polanco's name into the lineup on a regular basis, he'll feel confident in what they're getting from second base. Polo's been a good if not great hitter almost every year, including 2022 when he was 17% above average, and he's still not yet 30. His switch-hitting ability makes him an everyday staple.
The loss of Luis Arraez during the offseason subtracted a key depth piece at second, but the Twins backfilled with a couple of veterans in Farmer and Solano, who would both be capable if uninspiring regulars at the position should Polanco miss time. 
Adding to their depth here, the Twins have a handful of near-ready infield prospects who could factor at second base in the short term – most notably Julien, who's seen plenty of time there this spring while really impressing with the bat. Martin and Royce Lewis are also realistic candidates to see time at second this year.
THE BAD
Polanco's lengthy run of durability came to halt in the latter part of the 2022 season. He didn't play after August 27th, plagued by a nagging knee tendinitis issue he couldn't shake. According to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Polanco spent much of his offseason rehabbing the injury. 
He's been noticeably slow to ramp up in camp. The 29-year-old still hasn't appeared in a spring game, and while that's not quite yet a red flag, it will be a week or two from now. As with so many other players on this Twins team, it is the ambiguity and lack of information around Polanco's health situation that makes it so inscrutable.
What was true at first base is also true here: the Twins have enough credible depth to sustain losing their starter, but such a scenario would also entail a huge drop-off in upside. The idea of Alex Kirilloff and Polanco holding down the right side of the infield is exhilarating. Alas, we've yet to see either of them on the field this spring.
THE BOTTOM LINE
A healthy Polanco is an excellent piece to have at second base. He has played at an All-Star caliber level in two of the past three full MLB seasons and could easily be one of the team's most critical fixtures this year.
But the lower-body injuries have clearly taken their toll on Polanco, who's undergone multiple ankle surgeries in the past. He's in his last guaranteed year under contract, and as mentioned, there are several young middle infielders in this system on the rise, so the coming season could be a pivotal one for the longest-tenured Twin's future with the franchise. 
Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:
Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base

Jaylen Nowlin grew up in Atlanta, Georgia. His parents encouraged him to play many sports and keep busy, so he did, and in doing so developed some great friendships. Once he reached high school, his focus turned solely toward baseball. That decision appears to be the right one for the talented lefty. 
At Westlake High School, he teamed with Lawrence Butler, one of the top prospects in the Oakland A’s organization. He had committed to West Virginia, but the A’s selected him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He had a solid season in the High-A Midwest League in 2022 and a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Butler was added to the 40-man roster last November and has a chance to debut in 2022. Through seven spring training games, he is 8-for-14 (.571) with three doubles, a triple, and a home run. 
With a few players who are now pros and several who played in college, how good was their team? Nowlin admitted, “Shockingly, not that good. We had the talent, but we definitely lacked the discipline. We had a lot of fun, but discipline was probably our weakest point.” 
In the summers, Nowlin and Butler played on a local team in regional and national Perfect Game tournaments and did very well. Former Atlanta Braves outfielder Marquis Grissom led the team. His son, Marquis Grissom, Jr., was on the team. He went to Georgia Tech and was drafted by the Nationals in 2021. Also on the team was 2022 National League Rookie of the Year, Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris. Harris was called up to Atlanta from Double-A at the end of May, and he went on to use an incredible toolset to hit for average, showed his power, and showed great speed on the bases and in center field.  
Marvin Freeman spent parts of 10 seasons in the big leagues. He was the pitching coach on the team. Along with Grissom, they provided some much-needed mentorship. “Those two have really pushed my career along since I was like 14 years old. Marvin Freeman is the best pitching coach I could ever ask for. He is just a guru with it. He knows how to make everything make sense, help out, and have all the cues. Without him, I would be a different pitcher right now.” 
Nowlin recalls, “There was a lot of competition on the team and a lot of competition that we placed against.” He later said, “We did some damage in those Perfect Game tournaments. We were a deep team, pretty much an all black team. A deep team too. We had a lot of talent.” 
Jaylen Nowlin has been around excellent players for a long time. He was putting up a quality resume in his own right. He had committed in high school to Jackson State but instead went to Chipola College in Florida, one of the best junior colleges nationally every year. In 2021, Nowlin pitched in 16 games and 42 innings. He walked too many (24), but he struck out an incredible 59 batters (44% of batters faced). 
Nowlin said of the experience, “That’s where my development really took off. I struggled early on, but the pitching coach got to me, and that’s when we started hammering down on just  throwing strikes.” 
He committed to pitching at the University of Alabama-Birmingham in 2022. But then came the draft. He was at home with his parents and a few friends. It took awhile, but finally, in the 19th round, he heard his name called as the pick of the Minnesota Twins. 
He quickly signed and got to work. He pitched in just one FCL game during the season. It was during Instructs that Nowlin started to make his name known. Reports were that the lefty was hitting 97 with his fastball and showing a sharp slider. 
The southpaw started his first full minor-league season in Fort Myers. He pitched in 19 games, including 11 starts. He was part of one of the two Mighty Mussels no-hitters. 
David Festa started it. Nowlin pitched in the middle, and Hunter McMahon finished it off. “Once I came in, I just came in and threw. I had no idea that they had no hits at that point until I came out and Hunter came in. I was just going in there, doing my job, like normal. Once we finished the game and they started throwing the water everywhere, I was still pretty much confused.”
 He ended the season with three starts for Cedar Rapids before their playoff run. “I was happy to be able to make that step, just to reach another level. I just want to be able to continue to progress every year, get better as much as I can, and move up as fast as I can. So moving up to Cedar Rapids was a great experience for me, and I was very appreciative of it.” 
Nowlin has a three-pitch mix primarily. His fastball sits in the mid-90s but has reached 97 at times. He’s got a good, sharp slider, and he also throws a changeup. He says he also likes to throw a two-seamer every once in a while too. Along with stuff, Nowlin thinks he’s got the right mentality. “It’s me throwing every single pitch I have with conviction. It’s just trying to let everything eat, throw it down the middle, and see if they can hit it. I like to test batters to see if they can hit it. I try not to do too much. Keep everything simple. Shove it right down the middle and see if they can beat me.” 
Combined, he threw 71 innings and had a remarkable 111 strikeouts (14.1 K/9). He also had 36 walks, which is more than he would want and something to focus on in the offseason. Lowering that walk rate is just one of his goals heading into the 2023 season. 
And in the offseason, he spends a lot of time with his friends. “We’re a tight group. Me, Mike, Marquis, Lawrence. We’re a tight group. We work out together in the offseason. We’re always with each other, playing a game together, working out, or just chilling at each other’s houses.” 
Nowlin says he is ‘definitely a goal guy, highly goal oriented. Keep progressing. Get to Double-A as fast as I can. Move up as much as I can this year. Get better every day.” 
Jaylen Nowlin has been in Fort Myers preparing for the season since mid-January. His strikeout rate and stuff have him entering most Top 30 Twins prospect rankings. He and fellow 2021 Day 3 draft pick David Festa are two Twins pitching prospects to move up most in 2022. Can Nowlin take another big step forward in 2023?
For more Jaylen Nowlin content on Twins Daily, click here. 

After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. 
What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season.
Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration
One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team?
Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs
Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs.
Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential
When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial.
Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline
When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025.
A Star is Born
While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox.
Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. 
One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins!
What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins!

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 
3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7
Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million.  
Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 
2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1
Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 
1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9
FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. 

Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. 

Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato
THE GOOD
In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup.
Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. 
But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently.
We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing.
Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence.
Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first.
Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline.
Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects.
THE BAD
As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. 
 
Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages.  
Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons.
Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff.
It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong.
The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year.
Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer.
Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. 
The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. 
"We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” 
They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.)
Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash.
The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect.

After originally planning to play for Puerto Rico, newly re-signed superstar Carlos Correa will be out of the tournament. He will miss some time this week however as his wife Daniella is scheduled to give birth to their second son. It’s the second time Correa will have missed an opportunity to play third base alongside countryman Francisco Lindor. In his place, Jose Miranda could have been the option at the hot corner, but he too will stay with the Twins as he rehabs a sore throwing shoulder.
Miranda and Correa aren't alone in stepping away from the tournament. Star reliever Jhoan Duran also opted out despite already touching 102 mph during live at bats. After signing with Minnesota, Donovan Solano decided he would take the time to acclimate with his new team rather than play in the tournament as well.
It appears as though Minnesota still has seven players on rosters for the tournament, and that’s where the focus should be as the action gets underway. Jose De Leon and Edouard Julien are probably the two players least likely to be on the Opening Day roster, but they join the likes of Pablo Lopez, Jorge Lopez, Christian Vazquez, Jovani Moran, and Emilio Pagan as participants.
With respect to those playing, here’s some things you should be looking for:
Health
First and foremost, the Twins don’t need to see injury for any of their players competing in the tournament. The expectation will be that players and managers operate with a focus on the regular season. Although there is a certain desire to win the tournament, each player knows their season ahead is most important. Having already seen Nick Gordon and Austin Martin fall injured during Spring Training, Rocco Baldelli certainly doesn’t want to see more issues for any of his potential players.
 
With Vazquez slated to be Minnesota's Opening Day starter behind the dish, him remaining healthy throughout the tournament is paramount. Minnesota has seen Gary Sanchez be ineffective while both Mitch Garver and Jeffers have missed time in recent seasons. Vazquez isn't expected to be an offensive juggernaut, but he's a reliable talent defensively and the depth in the organization below the Major League level is not ideal.
 
Quality of Pitching
The pitchers representing Minnesota in the World Baseball Classic are a very intriguing bunch. Pablo Lopez is the headliner having just come over from the Miami Marlins, so seeing how he looks early against some real competition should be more than exciting. Depending on how De Leon is utilized, it’s Lopez that will be the only starter.
From a reliever standpoint, there couldn’t be more to monitor. Pagan did not show well in his spring debut, and tightening things up is a must if he’s going to instill confidence when he takes the mound. Jorge Lopez struggled after joining Minnesota last season, and returning to an All-Star level would be more than nice to see. Moran is certainly battling for a spot in the bullpen, and while he could have an inside track as a lefty, starting strong on a big stage could certainly do wonders.
Next Step for Julien
Thus far we have seen no reason to suggest that Julien’s bat isn’t legit. He raked everywhere last season in the minors, and then continued to do so during the Arizona Fall League. He has started nicely for the Twins this spring, and carrying that over to elite levels of competition for Team Canada is a must. Given his lack of defensive flexibility, the quality of his bat will be what plays, and if he can showcase it during whatever action he sees now, it could help to influence the timeline he sees in 2023.
Team USA is led by Mike Trout and a host of other superstars. The Dominican squad is absolutely stacked. The tournament itself should be a fun one, and there will be plenty of high intensity action to watch alongside the Spring Training games taking place down in Fort Myers.

Gilberto Celestino was acquired from Houston in the July 2018 Ryan Pressly trade. The Twins saw a raw but physically gifted outfielder who has steadily made his way up to the majors since. The fact that Celestino was able to do so speaks to his raw athletic ability above all else, as the last few years have included some difficult obstacles. Unfortunately, it appears he’s hit yet another significant roadblock this spring.
Celestino is a tiring topic for many fans. He hasn’t hit at the big-league level and has a history of mental mistakes, which has resulted in him being written off by some despite the fact that he’s still just 24 years old. As with all struggling players, there’s context.
It’s easy to look back and forget that Celestino was promoted directly from Double-A early in the 2021 season. He had played just 21 games at the level. Of course, that was after the 2020 season in which he played no games. And in 2019? He ended that season with eight games at High-A Fort Myers. 
The Twins had a need for center field depth, and Celestino was the best option available. For what it’s worth, he looked every bit the part defensively and has continued to do so. Unfortunately, he paired his defensive value with a .136/.177/.288 slash line in the MLB in 2021, which eventually led to a demotion to his first Triple-A stint. It was then that Celestino flashed his offensive upside, slashing .290/.384/.443. It earned him another shot in the big leagues to begin 2022. He started out hot before falling off a cliff at the plate. In 122 games, Celestino was 18% below the league-average hitter.
Despite his defense remaining pristine, the Twins had made up their mind that Celestino had to try to make up for lost development time not only from his rushed debut but from his missed 2020 COVID season in the minors. They traded for Michael A. Taylor to be the primary rigright-handedckup in center field. It was a welcomed development because of the prospect of Celestino finding his bat again in Triple-A and possibly developing into more of a solid future MLB player. 
Because of the development Celestino clearly needs, his recent injury hurts despite the fact that he had little to no chance to begin 2023 with the Twins. Taylor is a one-year rental and it was likely Celestino would again take over that role in the coming years. While this is still possible, Celestino will be behind to start the season after tearing the UCL in his thumb and likely missing 6-8 weeks. The hits just keep coming for the Twins young center fielder. 
Celestino may very well still play a role in the 2023 Twins season at some point. Injuries or just flat-out performance by the center fielder in St. Paul could force the issue down the stretch. The Twins are still hopeful that he can develop into a quality Major League player, but more seasoning is needed and the recent injury has put the possibility on hold. 
Before looking at his surface numbers and deciding Celestino isn’t a piece of the Twins future, just consider the path he took to get here and how much of a testament it is to his raw talent that he could still right the ship. Here’s hoping that Gilberto Celestino catches a break in 2023.
 

Projected Starter: Christian Vázquez
Likely Backup: Ryan Jeffers
Depth: Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, Chance Sisco
Prospects: Chris Williams, Noah Cardenas
THE GOOD
Acquiring a veteran catcher was a top priority for the Twins this offseason, and they got their guy, signing Vázquez to three-year, $30 million deal as arguably the second-best free agent at the position. The 32-year-old could hardly be described as a star, but that's not what the Twins were seeking: they wanted stability following a season where they enjoyed very little of it behind the plate.
Vázquez has had a few standout seasons, highlighted by a 2019 campaign where he slashed .276/.320/.477 with 23 home runs for Boston, but the Twins would be perfectly content with a repeat of 2022: average offense (99 OPS+) and steady defense combined with reliable availability. 
The Twins continue to believe in Jeffers as their future behind the plate, but the presence of Vázquez means they don't need to entirely plan around that scenario in the short term, which is probably wise given how things have gone for Jeffers over the past two seasons. 
While the righty-swinging Vázquez doesn't provide a platoon advantage, he's much more capable against right-handed pitchers and should allow the Twins to play Jeffers more to his strength against lefties, against whom he's slashed .263/.344/.450 in his career. 
Both are considered very solid receivers who pitchers like to work with, giving the Twins a more consistent level of quality behind the plate after Gary Sánchez (still unsigned) caught 714 innings mostly out of necessity last season.
THE BAD
The Twins really need to hope Vázquez can maintain his record of staying healthy, because an injury could put the Twins right back into a familiar spot of grasping for answers behind the plate.
Their depth was so sparse last year that when Jeffers went down for an extended period, they were forced to run out Caleb Hamilton for a few games and eventually acquired no-hit veteran Sany León from Cleveland's Triple-A team. He became more or less the primary starter.
Minnesota has built out its experienced upper-level depth a bit with Wolters, Greiner, and Cisco, but those three combined to play four games in the majors last year. Meanwhile, there's no position in the Twins organization with less in the way of immediate pipeline impact. As discussed in this year's top prospect recap, catcher continues to be an area of extreme scarcity in this system.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The front office desperately needed to strengthen the catcher position this past offseason, and while they did, it could still hardly be described as a strength. Although I guess that depends on your assessment of Jeffers. 
In some eyes, he could be viewed as one of the best backup catchers in the game – a still-developing impact starter who now has the luxury of coming along slowly with an established vet splitting time. If both guys stay healthy and Jeffers takes that next step, the Twins will have a catching setup that is the envy of the league. 
The thing is, it's hard to count on that. Jeffers has seen his OPS drop from .791 in a strong rookie campaign to .670 in 2021 to .648 last year, and has struggled to stay healthy. You don't have to squint to see the potential of a two-way asset – I was reminded of his raw power while watching him repeatedly hit absolute tanks in BP last week – but the 25-year-old is already inching toward arbitration without even a 1-WAR season to his credit.
Losing either of their top two backstops would force the Twins to delve into their murky depth, and while Vázquez has thankfully been pretty durable in the past, he also turns 33 this season.

Coming into spring training, it seemed that Trevor Larnach might serve as the Twins most regular designated hitter. With Joey Gallo looking to handle left field, Alex Kirilloff slated for first base, and Max Kepler still on the team, that was a fair thought. Things got murky when Donovan Solano was added to the mix. Kyle Farmer may take the first crack, but there will still be at-bats to go around.

Is it crazy to give some of them to Canadian prospect Edouard Julien?

Coming off an excellent season for Double-A Wichita, Julien went to the Arizona Fall League and continued to rake. He posted a .931 OPS across 113 games in the Texas League, and his 1.248 OPS during 21 Fall League games went on to beat it. Since being lured away from Auburn, and the Twins had to entice him plenty, all he has done is hit.
That is a good thing for Julien because he leaves plenty to be desired in the field. Mainly playing second base, he’d need an injury to starter Jorge Polanco for an opportunity to open. Even then, Solano, Farmer, or the now-injured Nick Gordon could stand between him and that chance. If his bat is going to carry, though, then maybe that is all Minnesota needs to play.

Rocco Baldelli’s bench should consist of backup catcher Ryan Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and a healthy Gordon. That group gives the manager plenty of flexibility. Should Gordon miss Opening Day due to his high ankle sprain, the spot may need to be taken by an outfielder. Neither Solano nor Farmer is an ideal fit on the grass, and Gordon has all but transitioned to being one. If there is a way for the final spot to be somewhat position-less (or multi-positional), then Julien’s spring isn’t slowing his chances.

Prospects aren’t expected to skip Triple-A entirely, and it usually happens with top-tier types such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, or Jose Berrios. Still, with Julien’s game being somewhat one-sided, he may need less refinement than those in a traditional scenario.
The power has already played this spring with the Twins, and Julien can further substantiate his results by showing well for Team Canada during the World Baseball Classic. As a high on-base guy, his 8/1 K/BB this spring seems abnormal, but we’re also dealing with a tiny sample size. When the dust settles, it’s probably too insignificant to extrapolate much from the results, but that won’t discourage Julien from putting his best foot forward.

It remains unlikely that there is an avenue for Julien to break camp with the Twins and head to Kansas City for Opening Day, but plenty of crazier additions to the 26-man roster have worked their way out. Julien has already been added to the 40-man roster and wouldn't need any back-of-the-napkin gymnastics to find his way into a big-league clubhouse.

Even if it doesn’t happen to start the year, betting against Julien in 2023 seems unwise. He’ll be right down the street in St. Paul, and you’d probably be best served to get your tickets early if you want to see him there. A strong start at Triple-A could force Minnesota’s decision-making process in a hurry.

At some point, the Twins will need to decide how much the hit tool can carry Julien, and if it’s enough to let him do nothing more than that in their lineup, then he’ll find a great position as a consistent designated hitter this year.

As I looked at numbers for Jose Miranda's stellar rookie campaign, something about it seemed quixotically familiar. This gap-to-gap line-drive hitter with a below-average walk rate and a below-average league strikeout rate reminded me of a season another young third baseman had several years ago, 2013 Manny Machado.
This may initially seem bewildering, but give me a chance to explain, because while similarities exist, it’s the (somewhat hidden) differences that highlight the contrast between the two players. But they also point out why Twins fans can be so optimistic about Miranda.
Miranda was never the prospect that Machado was, but they did end up having similar hit and power grades. On Fangraphs in 2012, Machado was given a 60-hit 50-power, and Miranda had a 50-hit 50-power. The difference in the overall ranking had much to do with other tools Machado possesses that Miranda does not. We will get to that later.
For now, I want to focus on the similarities between 2022 Jose Miranda and 2013 Manny Machado. While not identical, Machado and Miranda were aggressive, quality bat-to-ball hitters in their first full seasons. Machado posted a 4.1% BB rate and 15.9% K rate, and Miranda had a 5.8% BB rate and an 18.8% K rate. Their BB/K was 0.26 for Machado and 0.31 for Miranda, so while the rates were slightly different, the ratios were very close. 
The approach of Machado and Miranda wasn't the only similarity. Their line drive rates and power numbers are what stuck out to me. Let's take a look at some categories where Miranda and Machado performed similarly:
2022 Miranda vs. 2013 Machado 
HR: 15 vs 14
OBP: .325 vs .314
SLG: .426 vs .432
OPS: .751 vs .746
ISO: .158 vs .148
wOBA: .329 vs .325
LD%: 20.3% vs 20.6%
Fastball RAA: 2.5 vs 2.3
Machado logged over 700 plate appearances in 2013, while Jose Miranda had fewer than 500, so volume totals will look significantly different. Still, this was a fun thing to research, given what Machado has developed into as a hitter. 
The differences in the seasons are relatively obvious, but we should look at them anyway. First, Machado played his 2013 season at age 20, whereas Miranda played in 2022 at age 24. That doesn’t mean anything in the value of that year, but it means a tremendous difference in what that year means to their future projections. So to be clear, the fact that their years were similar offensively, doesn’t mean that the players should develop in a similar manner. Jose Miranda is not on pace to become Manny Machado.
There is another glaring disparity between these seasons that does affect the value of that particular season: their defense. Miranda's defensive struggles at first base have been well documented, and it seems to be deemed a success if he turns into an average third baseman. 
On the contrary, Machado is one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of baseball. In that 2013 season, Machado netted 27 defensive runs saved, tops among all third baseman and fifth among all positions. His 20.8 UZR ranked first among all third basemen and first among all positions. 
Machado also finished first among all non-catchers in defensive runs above average at 23.2, a defensive stat that takes into account position value, which is a particularly impressive accomplishment given third base is not considered a premium defensive position. For some context, Miranda had -9.3 defensive runs above average last season. He was penalized for being a below-average defender and additionally penalized for playing most of his innings at first base. 
The differences in defensive value, along with the volume disparity, were enough to give Machado a 5.0 fWAR season compared to Miranda's 1.1 fWAR. Still, it should also be noted that Miranda's offensive production came in a much unfriendlier run-scoring environment. Not only was Camden Yards one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, but changes to the baseball and the progression of pitchers also played a part. 
The difference in these factors is shown in wRC+ and OPS+, which consider the hitter's environment. For both of these stats, the league average is 100. Miranda's and Machado's OPS were nearly identical, but Miranda performed much better in wRC+ at 117 than 2013 Machado at 102. OPS+, which compares a player's OPS to the league average, shows the same with Miranda at 116 and 2013 Machado at 102. 
Jose Miranda most likely doesn't have the talent to become the player Manny Machado has developed into. Still, there are enough parallels in their early career hitting performances that there might be more upside in Miranda's bat than initially perceived. I don't want to imply that Miranda will match Machado as one of the premier players in the game; even in Miranda's highest standard deviation of outcomes, he doesn't become the player Machado is. But as someone who began writing this piece a little lower on Miranda than public perception, I am more optimistic about the Twins' starting third baseman for the years to come.

Last month, Twins Daily posted our Top 30 Twins prospects. You won’t find Travis Adams ’ name in it. Of the 10 Twins Daily writers that provided their Top 30 Twins prospects, Adams appeared on just one person’s list, and that was at #28. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 30 Twins prospects. His name does not appear among the Top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. MLB.com posted an article that mentioned 11 players to follow outside of the Top 30. No, Adams wasn’t mentioned. 
Adams was not a huge prospect growing up in southern California and attending Palm Desert High School. Several of his teammates from high school are playing pro ball, and more played college baseball too. In a tournament, his team played one game against Royce Lewis and his JSerra teammates. 
 
He didn’t have many scholarship offers coming out of high school, but he was thrilled when Sacramento State offered him because he loved that part of the state and had family there. Adams grew up a Giants fan and enjoyed watching Barry Bonds, Buster Posey, and some of those strong San Francisco teams. 
“They were my first and only offer. I wanted to give the opportunity to them. I was still early in my development. I was still small. I was only throwing 85. They believed in me at a young age.” 
However, he matured, got bigger and stronger, and went to a school with an opportunity to pitch right away. As a freshman, he pitched in 15 games which included nine starts. He made four starts in 2020 before Covid canceled the season. He went 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. 
Following his sophomore season, Adams played in the Northwoods League for Wisconsin Rapids. 
“That was super fun, getting to travel and go out to Wisconsin and be with a host family. It was my first time playing summer ball and being with a host family, so it was totally different for me. I had an absolute blast. I enjoyed playing every day. It felt like minor-league baseball.” He continued, “The atmosphere and the fans we had there were great. It was a blast with all the guys I got to play with from all over the country and from different schools.” 
He made 14 starts in his junior season and went 6-3. In his three seasons at Sacramento State, Adams tossed 151 innings. He had 130 strikeouts with a remarkable 25 walks (1.5 BB/9).  
The scouts attended most of his games with their radar guns behind home plate. He also went to the combine and met with a lot of teams. He recalls going through a physical with the Twins there, but in general, the Twins didn’t show more, or maybe even as much, interest as other teams. 
“I really didn’t talk to the Twins very much. I was actually shocked on draft day when I got the phone call from them. There really wasn’t much contact between me and them prior to the draft.” 
He was at his parents' home in southern California, surrounded by family, some friends, and his girlfriend. When he got the call from the Twins and heard his name on the online draft, his phone started to blow up with calls and text messages. “It was just a great and blessed day,” he recalls. 
Adams quickly reported to Fort Myers, did some physicals, signed, and then began life as a professional. While he pitched in one game toward the end of the 2021 season, that draft year is used to let those college pitchers get some rest and learn about how the Twins work, the stats and technology they use, and develop relationships with players and coaches. 
He noted that he appreciated the value of the Trackman system over the Rapsodo system he had used in college. 
He specifically liked using the Force Plate Mound to see how his body moves and handles various stresses. Some of the things he has worked on throughout the offseason, mechanical improvements to increase velocity and consistency, are based on lessons learned from that technology. 
He began the 2022 season in Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and went 4-5 with a 3.50 ERA. In 69 1/3 innings, he walked 15 batters and struck out 69. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids to end the season and made seven starts. In 31 1/3 innings, he walked 11 and struck out 39 batters. 
To do the math for you, Adams had 108 strikeouts and 26 walks over 100 2/3 innings. He was one of seven pitchers to reach 100 minor-league innings in 2022. His 22 starts were tied with Simeon Woods Richardson, just one behind the 23 starts made by Louie Varland and Brent Headrick. 
Level-headed, the 23-year-old right-hander said, “I learned that you just have to take it start by start. If you have a bad start, you can’t get too low on it. If you have a great start, you just have to be even-keel throughout the entire season. If you get too high on the highs and too low on the lows, it’s going to be very hard on you and stressful.” 
With a solid first full minor-league season under his belt, he entered the offseason with some things to work on. There were a couple of mechanical things that he focused on to help him as he moves forward in his career. 
He throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He says the fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” 
Minor-league camp officially opened on March 1st, but he has been in Fort Myers since mid-January getting himself ready for the 2023 season. 
And now that he has that great control and command, and a fastball that hit 97 mph late in the season in Cedar Rapids last year, don’t be surprised when you see him rise up the prospect rankings at Twins Daily and other places too. 
For more Twins Daily content on Travis Adams, click here.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)
So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.
(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Larnach   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor   RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Moran Bench  Gordon   RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.
Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.
Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.
Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.
Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.
This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.
And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.
So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.
So here’s the new chart.
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Solano   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor   RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Alcala/Megill Bench  Gordon   LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 
So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.
Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)
Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. 
 
The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?
Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.
For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.
Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)
In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. 
 
Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:
Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.
The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:
Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field.  In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.  
While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.
How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."
"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."
Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.
At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.
"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler  ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."
You don't say?
 
Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."
While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. 
As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.

Saints fans can be excited about the amount of talent projected in St. Paul to start the 2023 season. Many of the team's top prospects are closing in on the big-league level, including multiple starting pitchers that debuted in 2022. Here's a look at who could populate the Saints' pitching staff on Opening Day. 
Trio At the Top: Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson
Ober was potentially pushed out of the Twins rotation after the team acquired Pablo Lopez from the Marlins. However, he is only one injury away from being back at the big-league level. Last season, Ober made 11 starts (56 innings) for the Twins and posted a 3.21 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 51-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He missed a large chunk of the season with a groin injury and has pitched fewer than 100 innings in all but one professional season. Ober will be in St. Paul for a short time with injury questions surrounding multiple starters on the big-league roster. 
Varland is the first Twins pitcher to win back-to-back Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year since Jose Berrios. The St. Paul native changed his arm action after joining the Twins organization, improving his entire pitching repertoire. As a 24-year-old, he dominated the upper minors with a 3.06 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 in over 126 innings. He got a brief taste of the big leagues at the end of 2022 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in five starts. Varland might not profile as an ace, but the Twins believe he can fit into the middle of the team's rotation for the majority of the next decade. 
Woods Richardson has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on this list and is coming off his best professional season. The Twins sent him back to Double-A, a level he struggled at in 2021, and he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. He performed even better after his promotion to Triple-A, lowering his ERA to 2.21 and posting a 38-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His walk rate had been a concern in 2021 (5.7 BB/9) but returned to form with a 3.0 BB/9 last season. Only one pitching prospect ranks higher than SWR in the Twins Daily Top Prospect Rankings. 
Options to Fill Out the Rotation
The Twins have a variety of directions to go when it comes to filling out the rest of the starting rotation. Some of these decisions will be based on health and injuries, while others will be based on the team's long-term role for the pitcher. Are they a starter or a reliever? 
Josh Winder is in the mix for a starting role, but he just started throwing bullpens this week after dealing with shoulder issues in the offseason. His shoulder has bothered him for multiple seasons, so it might be time to move to a bullpen role. Ronny Henriquez is one of the youngest pitchers on the 40-man roster, and the team likely wants him to continue to start games. Last season, Cole Sands split time between starter and reliever, so his best path back to the big league might be a multi-inning reliever.
Randy Dobnak, Brent Headrick, and Jordan Balazovic are also interesting names to consider at Triple-A. Dobnak missed time over the last two seasons with a finger injury, and he is no longer on the 40-man roster. Expectations don't need to be high for him, but there is a good chance he will return to the MLB level if his finger injury is behind him. Balazovic is currently recovering from a broken jaw after being punched at a Fort Myers bar. His build-up to the season will be behind other pitchers while he waits for the injury to heal. Headrick had a breakout season in 2022, and the Twins hope he can continue to build on that success. 
What are your thoughts on the Triple-A rotation? Which players fill the final spots? Who will have the most significant impact on the Twins in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

It’s not exactly a bad thing that the Twins will be looking to usher in a new look given they are coming off back-to-back seasons missing the postseason. Last year, the club was decimated by injuries and the year prior, performance left plenty to be desired. Neither of those teams truly had an identity, and it’s something Rocco Baldelli would probably prefer they get back to.
If you’re hoping that Joey Gallo’s signing means Minnesota will blast bombas once again, you’re likely to be disappointed. Sure, the Twins are hoping he can find his swing, but there is positional flexibility and defense to fall back on for the slugger. Carlos Correa returns at shortstop, and while he can manage the lumber, his game is an all around one as well.
Nelson Cruz is going to moonlight as a baseball player for the San Diego Padres, and Miguel Sano is still unemployed. The Bomba Squad was a one-time thing, and looking at this roster, the Twins want their strength to be pitching.
Luis Arraez was sent to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez, not because the pitcher is an ace, but because he lengthens the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has looked the part of a top arm when healthy, and Tyler Mahle could be more than ready to break out if he’s healthy. Kenta Maeda has previously competed for a Cy Young award, and last year’s Opening Day starter in Joe Ryan may be slated to bring up the rear of the rotation.
For the first time in quite a while, the Twins rotation is where much of the investment has been made. Yes, there isn’t a massive free agent contract in the group, but prospect capital such as Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were all utilized to acquire it. Moving on from Arraez wasn’t an easy choice, but the lineup has enough potential to withstand that sort of blow.
You can bet that Baldelli is not hoping to win every game 2-1, but this shouldn’t be a Twins team that needs five runs in order to hold things down. Last season, the difference between scoring three or more runs was drastic, and the hope is that tweaks to the defense can help as well. The outfield may be able to lay claim as baseball’s best defensively, and that will only further help whoever is on the mound.
Bringing back Correa at shortstop was a must, and while Jorge Polanco is not great in the field, Jose Miranda should be better at the hot corner with Alex Kirilloff possessing Gold Glove ability at first base. Fielding will continue to be an area the Twins look to improve in an effort to help the entire pitching staff.
Down the stretch last season, the Twins bullpen made significant strides. Jhoan Duran got all of the praise, but Griffin Jax has emerged as a force, and Jorge Lopez returning to his All-Star form would be a massive high-leverage boost.
Both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, Pete Maki is going to feel confident running arms to the mound. Derek Falvey became synonymous with pitching when working within the Cleveland Guardians organization. This may be the first time since he has been with Minnesota where he can feel confident in what the group on the mound has been built as.
Not every team is going to have an ace, and although the Twins still don’t, they have as good of a group as anyone could hope for. There are different styles that will trot to the mound, but it would not be at all surprising to see that Twins have the best staff, top to bottom, in the division. Start thinking of nicknames if you must, but this group is going to rely on pitching and defense.

The early talk of Minnesota Twins spring training is not the return of Kenta Maeda or the leg of Carlos Correa, but rather the blistering start from Edouard Julien. The infield prospect put a bow on the chatter by belting two home runs against Atlanta in Tuesday’s 10-7 pretend game victory.
Jason Kornhaber is already mad about it.
“Edmond [sic] is a monster talent,” said Kornhaber, who found out about Julien’s existence on Friday, February 24th, when two-time Jeopardy! also-ran Do-Hyoung Park interviewed him for MLB.com. “It’s unconscionable that this team would hold him back. Are they playing to win or playing with Edwin [sic] ’s service time?”
Julien, an 18th-round pick out of Auburn in 2019, led the minor leagues with 208 walks over the last two seasons. This is just one of the recently acquired facts that Kornhaber has marshaled in Julien’s defense despite not knowing his entire name yet.
“Juilliard [sic] is a generational talent, and the Twins are throwing it away,” said the Farmington beekeeper. Per sources close to Kornhaber, he has also said this about Kohl Stewart, Alex Burnett, Michael Restovich, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Slama, and Matt Moses. In addition, a former roommate said Kornhaber vowed to get a tattoo of MTV’s Dan Cortese on his thigh if J.D. Durbin didn’t record a 20-win season. Durbin finished his MLB career with six total wins. Kornhaber denied the story.
“He’s going to lead Team Canada to a World Baseball Classic title and come back to Fort Myers with a ticket to (home of Twins Triple-A affiliate) St. Paul,” claimed Kornhaber, who discovered Julien’s nationality on Monday.
The Twins have made no indication on their plans for Julien in 2023, but Kornhaber’s anger is already at a fever pitch not seen since his misguided advocacy for Joe Webb as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback of the future.
“I can’t believe they’re doing this to Erwin [sic],” said Kornhaber.

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

"He makes it look easy" is one of the highest compliments you can pay a person when it comes to something so immensely challenging as playing baseball at the highest level. 
And yet, that's Brooks Lee in a nutshell. The 2022 first-round pick has handled everything thrown at him with such a sense of grace and nonchalance that it's easy to see why the Twins keep throwing more.
Selected eighth overall out of Cal Poly, Lee impressed the organization enough with his smooth transition to the pro game that they advanced him rapidly over a two-month span. Following a brief opening stint at rookie ball, where he batted .353 in four games, Lee skipped right past Low-A and went straight to Cedar Rapids. 
In 25 games with the Kernels, the switch-hitter slashed .289/.395/.454 with four home runs and an 18-to-16 K/BB ratio. His performance was so impressive that he received a late promotion to Double-A, where he went 11-for-26 (.423) in six contests, including four playoff games.
This spring, the Twins are showing a ton of faith and belief in Lee. Oftentimes when a prospect drafted nine months earlier is invited to big-league camp, it's used as an opportunity to soak in the experience and acclimate to major-league surroundings. 
Not in Lee's case. They're throwing him right into the fire. Through the first four days of spring training games, Lee made three starts and handled the assignment with aplomb, notching four hits in nine at-bats.
"He’s clearly not overwhelmed with the situation," observed manager Rocco Baldelli after Lee went 2-for-3 against the Braves on Tuesday. 
For his part, Lee says he wasn't quite expecting to get this much early-spring action ... not that he's disappointed. "It's pretty surprising, but I signed up for it. I'm having a lot of fun."
For those familiar with Lee's background, his ability to take it all in stride and enjoy the moment shouldn't come as a huge shock.
The Coach's Kid 
The narrative about a coach's kid with supernatural baseball aptitude can be an overplayed trope, but in Lee's case it is impossible to deny. After starring for San Luis Obispo High School in California, he was considered a top name in the 2019 draft, but withdrew his name the day before, informing teams he intended to play at Cal Poly for his father Larry, who'd served as Mustangs head coach for nearly two decades. 
A 2020 season lost to injury and COVID was followed by an excellent 2021, where he batted .342 with a 1.010 OPS, and then an even better 2022, which featured a .357/.462/.664 slash line and cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick. 
Growing up as a coach's kid creates a deep and unique connection to the baseball field, and the fundamentals of the game. It's apparent to Lee's current manager, who himself was coached by his father as a youth. Rocco has credited Dan Baldelli with developing his love for the game, so he can relate to this special aspect of Lee's makeup.
"He’s a very relaxed guy when he’s at the ballpark," Baldelli said. "He gives off the impression that he is a coach’s son and he spent many, many, many years of his life at a baseball field, and he knows everything that goes on at the baseball field. It doesn’t feel like there’s a ton going on here that he’s completely unfamiliar with."
In particular, Baldelli has been impressed by Lee's ability to process information and adapt on the fly.
"The at-bats look good. He makes really good adjustments during at-bats, he finds a way to get his barrel kind of on a good plane. Depending on what’s going on in the count, depending on the pitcher he’s facing, he’s not a one-trick pony at the plate, that’s pretty clear from watching him."
This crucial quality helps explain why Lee emerged as a top 2022 draft prospect – MLB.com had him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect ahead of time – and why the Twins were so delighted to get him with the No. 8 pick. 
So far he's been everything they could've hoped, with his initial performance standing out so much that Lee managed to sneak (ever-so-slightly) past Royce Lewis to claim the No. 1 spot on our latest Twins prospect rankings. 
Now all he has to contend with is a troubled history for those who've been in this position before.
Breaking a Pattern of Top Prospect Letdowns
I wrote recently about the track record for Twins prospects who've topped our rankings over the past 10 years. It's a list that includes:
Most recently, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, who are both grappling with potentially career-threatening health issues as we head into this season.  Austin Martin, who plummeted in the rankings following a tough encore season at Double-A in 2022. Fernando Romero, who fizzled out and never came close to reaching his high-end starter potential. Byron Buxton, whose career thus far has epitomized the disruptive power of uncontrollable forces impacting elite athletes, even when their on-field play matches their promise. Can Lee break the spell? His skill set is so advanced, balanced, and resilient that it feels almost impossible to envision a Martin-esque performance drop-off. Injuries are of course less predictable, and Lee hasn't been able to totally avoid their grip – he suffered a hyperextended knee in 2020 that required surgery – but he's fully healthy and without any restriction this spring.
That differentiates them from so many other players in camp, and has probably contributed to the number of opportunities available to him here in the first week of games.
The natural question now, for The Natural, is what comes next.
What's Ahead for Brooks Lee?
I'm assuming Lee will open the year at Double-A. That's a semi-aggressive assignment on its face, but so send him back to Single-A would feel almost unfair to the pitchers there.
Once he's settled in Wichita, Lee is instantly in range of a big-league promotion, and his showing this spring helps build confidence he'll be ready for the call whenever it comes. "Offensively, defensively, everything we’ve thrown at him, he’s handled it, done it, excelled at it, and he looks good," said Baldelli.
Assuming he picks up where he left off in the minors, it becomes a matter of when and where Lee's opportunity will arise in the majors. The Twins are hoping it won't come anytime soon at shortstop, where Correa is penciled in for years to come. 
The more imminent opportunity figures to come at third base, and it sort of feels like the organization is planning around such a scenario, maybe sooner than later. Playing third would be a relatively new experience for Lee, who played shortstop exclusively in college and has yet to appear anywhere else defensively as a pro. 
He said short is his favorite position, but added, "I love third too." Maybe it's meant to be. After all, Lee was named after legendary Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. In the past, he's set his sights on an accordingly ambitious career path.
"Honestly, I think I should be a Hall of Famer when I grow up and be in the talk for one of the greatest of all time," Lee said back in 2021 as a redshirt freshman at Cal Poly. 
These days, he's a little more subdued in his goal-setting. Asked what he hopes to accomplish this year: "Just be satisfied with how I did at the end of the season, that’s all I care about. Haven’t really thought about stats or anything like that, or where I’m gonna be."
Sounds like a coach's kid. And while he doesn't have his dad in the dugout anymore, Larry is never too far away – Brooks says he talks to him "every day." Upon reaching the big leagues, Lee will have the luxury of a more contemporary mentor close at hand.
After Correa exited his spring training debut on Wednesday, I asked for his impressions of Lee thus far. 
"Man that kid is a stud," Correa said, with an added emphasis on the last word. "I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year, he’s very, very good man. Everybody I talk to about him, it’s high praise. I don’t get impressed very easily. That was definitely a great pick by the Twins."
Just a couple of first-round shortstops who make it look easy.

It's not uncommon to hear that a pitcher's velocity is up early in spring training - right up until we actually see in-game radar readings. But we are seeing those now, and the velocity is sticking around. What's going on, and it a positive sign for the future? John Bonnes reports from Twins spring training.
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Entering last season, Jhoan Duran had been a starting pitcher for his entire career. A lengthy injury history made the Twins reconsider his long-term role with the club. He was shifted to the bullpen and became one of the team's most valuable assets. Only some players can be as successful in transitioning to the bullpen, but there are multiple players the Twins may consider shifting to a bullpen role during the upcoming season.
Josh Winder joined the Twins organization as a seventh-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Virginia Military Institute. He made nine starts (38 1/3 innings) in rookie ball after signing and posted a 3.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. During 2019, he spent the year at Low-A and lowered his ERA to 2.65 with a 118-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 125 2/3 innings. Winder led the Midwest League in ERA and WHIP during the 2019 season. He was putting himself on the prospect map, but then the pandemic took away a season. 
Winder added strength during the shutdown and saw his velocity jump coming into 2021. The Twins had Winder skip High-A coming out of the pandemic, which meant he split time between Double-A and Triple-A. Due to injury, his season started in May, but he dominated for Wichita. In 10 games, he had a 1.98 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with 10.7 K/9. The Twins promoted him to Triple-A, but shoulder fatigue ended his season after four starts at that level. It was a disappointing end to what could have been a breakout season. 
Season in Review 2022
Last spring, Winder was in the running to win a spot in the starting rotation before the team signed Chris Archer at the end of March. He still made the Opening Day roster to help add depth out of the bullpen. His first five appearances were strong as he limited the opposition to four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. However, he struggled in his subsequent two appearances and ended up on the Injured List with a right shoulder impingement.
He worked his way back to the big-league level, but his shoulder continued to bother him throughout the season. He went on the Triple-A Injury List in July with right shoulder impingement syndrome and didn't throw a bullpen until the middle of August. He returned to the big leagues in September, but the Twins had already fallen out of the division race. Overall, he made 15 appearances with the Twins, and four were out of the bullpen. He posted a 4.70 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a 47-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Projections for 2023
Winder is coming off a somewhat eventful off-season. His name popped up in trade rumors because he was the initial trade piece requested by the Royals for Michael A. Taylor. Minnesota balked at that request, and Kansas City lowered its asking price to two relievers, Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz. Both pitchers are considered relievers, and this might point to the Twins believing Winder can still be an asset as a starting pitcher.
Winder also dealt with shoulder issues as he started ramping up for the season, which means he's a little behind entering camp. Early in his career, Winder's fastball sat in the low 90s, but he averaged 94 mph last season and can hit in the upper-90s. His slider velocity sits in the mid-80s, and he throws this pitch a third of the time. His changeup and curve have helped him to keep big-league batters off-balanced, and his increase in velocity makes those pitches more of a weapon. He pounds the strike zone and limits walks, which can be ideal for a starting pitcher. 
Summary
For 2023, the Twins need to find a way to keep Winder healthy no matter what role he fulfills for the organization.
The Twins have worked to alter his mechanics, but his shoulder has been problematic for multiple seasons. During instructional league play in 2020, his velocity was even higher than what he has showcased in big-league action. These totals were in smaller sample sizes, which might indicate the bullpen being his long-term role. His college experience means he will be 26 years old for the entire 2023 season. Winder will start the year on track to be a starter, but his shoulder concerns mean the team should shift him to the bullpen in 2023. 
Can Winder's shoulder hold up to the rigors of being a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-Ronny Henriquez

In 40 ⅔ innings in 2022, Jovani Moran indicated he is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins in 2023. He posted a 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022, driven by a high strikeout rate and ground ball rate. Beyond the topline numbers, Moran was great against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He gave up a .554 OPS against lefties and a laughable .458 OPS against righties. His terrific changeup drives the reverse splits. 
While his strong 2022 performance leaves the Twins optimistic, Moran's severe lack of control throughout his career remains a question mark. He has had mammoth walk rates for most of his career, but the similarly eye-popping strikeout rates have allowed him to remain effective. 
The Twins seem to trust Moran as the second left-handed reliever on the roster behind Caleb Theilbar, and they chose not to add a lefty in free agency. To pay off that trust, Moran must maintain strikeout rates well above 30%, which he has maintained throughout his professional career. He will also need to find a way to keep walks as low as possible, but he has consistently had a walk rate above 10%, which falls comfortably in Fangraphs' "awful" categorization for that statistic. 
Digging deeper into Moran's 2022 with the Twins, he had an elite 32.9% K% and a dreadful 11% BB%. Those are extreme numbers on each end of the K/BB spectrum. He also had a 48.9% ground ball rate, which is above average and a good sign when the ball is put into play, as ground balls are less likely to do damage than line drives or home runs. The high ground ball rate has been consistent throughout his career, almost as consistent as the walks and strikeouts. 
Assuming he maintains the strikeout rate and ground ball rate, Moran is likely to be a very solid option out of the bullpen for the Twins and likely to be trusted in medium and high-leverage situations regularly. However, lowering his walk rate could alter the perception of Moran within the Twins organization and amongst their fans. Bringing it below 10% could help make him an elite reliever and a real weapon in an already talented and deep bullpen.  
In September and an appearance in October, after spending most of August in Triple-A, Moran showed signs of improving his command and control while maintaining his elite strikeout numbers. In 14 ⅓ innings, he still had an elite K/9 of 11.3 and a very good 1.88 BB/9, leading to a minuscule FIP of 1.78. 
The 1.88 BB/9 is entirely inconsistent with any full season he's had. He has averaged 4.6 for his career. However, if he can land in a middle ground between those points, Moran would force himself into the mix for high-leverage appearances and even put some pressure on Caleb Thielbar for the lefty matchups- despite his reverse splits. 
The Twins are relying on Moran being at least a reliable middle reliever. But he can be more than that if he carries his command and control from September into 2023. Then, Rocco Baldelli would have a strikeout monster who keeps the ball on the ground to utilize against both lefties and righties, with minimal downside.
What are your thoughts on Jovani Moran and his role with the 2023 Twins? Can he turn into the dominant reliever we would love to see, or would the Twins be wise to add some lefty reliever depth to go with Danny Coulombe, Locke St. John, Tyler Webb and other minor-league signings? Leave a COMMENT below. 

Kyle Farmer knew he was going to get traded this past offseason. It was only a matter of where. 
"I'm happy I'm here," he said, looking around the bustling Twins clubhouse ahead of Tuesday's game against Atlanta. 
Maybe a little bit less happy than he was at the time of the move. It's no secret that he loves playing shortstop, where he was Cincinnati's primary starter for most of the past two seasons. Farmer was reportedly "blindsided" when the Reds moved him to third base last August, favoring prospect Jose Barrero at short.
“It sucks,” Farmer said at the time. “I love short. I’ve loved short my entire life. It’s part of the game, I guess, and they see me at third. Hopefully I play well enough to maybe play third here next year.”
Well, Farmer won't be playing third in Cincy this year, but he should see plenty of action there for the Twins. He started at the hot corner against Boston on Monday after making his spring debut at his beloved shortstop in Saturday's home opener at Hammond Stadium. He'll get the nod at second base on Wednesday against the Phillies.
Farmer was lined up as the de facto starting shortstop when the Twins acquired him from the Reds in exchange for pitching prospect Casey Legumina on November 18th, and as the offseason progressed, it looked increasingly like Farmer would indeed assume primary duties as at least an interim fixture. Free agent shortstop options came flying off the board while Minnesota's pursuit of Carlos Correa appeared doomed.
As it turns out, this pursuit was in fact not doomed. Correa signed with the Twins in January and just like that, Farmer's hopes of a full-time return to the shortstop position were dashed. But for his part, he doesn't express too much consternation about it.
"Love short, love second, and I also love third," he said. "I feel more comfortable playing second probably over anywhere besides short if I had to choose, but third base comes naturally to me too." 
Farmer also has experience at first base, which seems relevant in light of the uncertainty surrounding Alex Kirilloff's situation, but it's clear he fundamentally enjoys playing around the two-bag. "Playing up the middle it’s like, I’m having fun in baseball, it’s not like a job."
 
He will have a job to do for the Twins, and an important one. Farmer has a pretty good idea of how the team plans to use him. 
"Someone needs a day off or a lefty’s pitching or maybe they put me in certain situations but I expect to play all over the infield."
What about the outfield? There's been some chatter about that possibility, given the need for righty-swinging depth in the corner spots, but Farmer's MLB experience in the outfield is extremely scarce, amounting to total four innings in left field back in 2020 and 2021. That said, he's open to the possibility.
"I haven’t done it yet in spring training but that option’s open," Farmer shared. "As long as I’m in the lineup hitting it doesn’t matter where I play defensively."
And that's what it really comes down to: is he hitting? Farmer's strong splits against lefties are an obvious point of appeal after the Twins scuffled versus southpaws last year, but he might struggle to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis if he's not at least holding his own against righties. Last year he slashed just .235/.291/.320 against them.
Offensively, Farmer said he's focused this spring on using his hips and lower body more in his swing, gaining more consistency with his load move. The 32-year-old admitted that as he gets older, it takes him a bit longer to find his timing and get in a groove. Luckily (for him, not us), there's still plenty of spring left.
Under control for two more seasons, Farmer has the ability to impact the Twins in a range of different ways, especially if his work at the plate leads to an improvement upon his sub-par overall career OPS+ of 85. (For comparison, Max Kepler finished at 93 in a career-worst 2022 season.)
One intriguing tool in his defensive versatility kit that hasn't yet been discussed? Farmer originally came up as a catcher, and played more than 80 innings there as recently as 2019. The Twins are a little iffy on catching depth beyond Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers, so Farmer's experience there feels somewhat relevant, separating him from your standard "emergency catcher."
To be clear, the Twins are still treating him as such. Rocco Baldelli was assertive in stating that Farmer is only a break-the-glass option as opposed to a third catcher – "He will catch in an emergency and that’s it." Still, it's awfully nice to have someone in that role who is a legit backstop, and it takes away any level of hesitation about carrying only two catchers on the roster, or DH-ing one of Vázquez and Jeffers against lefties.
Compared to catching, Baldelli was a bit less rigid on the idea of Farmer getting some time in the outfield, although it doesn't sound like he's planning around it. 
"I don’t think so," the manager said when asked if he anticipated any appearances from Farmer in the outfield this spring. "We generally will make adjustments the last couple weeks of spring training depending on what the roster looks like or any injury concerns around the team, and then if someone has to get some extra work or go play some positions they haven’t, we’ll do that at that point."
Incidentally, Trevor Larnach was scratched from Tuesday's game with lower-body soreness. Meanwhile, the third baseman Miranda has only been able to play DH so far this spring due to a throwing shoulder issue, and we still have yet to see second baseman Jorge Polanco in a spring game as he works back from a knee injury. Carlos Correa is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut at shortstop on Wednesday, serving as Farmer's double-play partner, but injury concerns will inevitably loom over him and his ankle. As we've discussed, the first base and catcher positions have their own question marks.
Given all of this, it's easy to see how the flexible Farmer – who's been very durable (he would've ranked third on the Twins in plate appearances last year, and fourth in 2021) – is an extremely nice piece of have on hand, with improved offense almost feeling like a bonus on top of what he can provide with his glove all over the field.
For a team that was so often forced to use players out of position or push them beyond their station last year, Farmer is a fantastic roster fit. A floor-raising player like him might not be the most exciting, but following a season where the bottom fell out, it's a vital necessity.

The Twins triumphed over the Atlanta Braves, 10-7, in Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers on Tuesday afternoon. It was Tyler Mahle's first game since shoulder fatigue shut down his 2022 season, but his stuff looked great, with velocity exceeding last year's average fastball velocity. The Twins jumped on an early lead thanks to two infielders - Edouard Julien and Willi Castro - who are likely slated for St. Paul. But the postgame talk with manager Rocco Baldelli revealed some injuries that were reflected in the game's lineup. John Bonnes has the details from the game.
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When the Twins signed Donovan Solano to the major-league roster last week, it shuffled things a bit. Nick Gordon is out of options, and the rest of the bench is largely set. Kyle Farmer could find himself as the Opening Day designated hitter, and everything points to Trevor Larnach beginning the season at Triple-A St. Paul.
On one hand, Larnach failing to crack the 26-man roster is representative of depth behind Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. On the other, it’s suboptimal to see a polished college hitter still yet to establish himself in the majors at age-26. The Twins have a concerning string of draft picks, and it starts with Larnach for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.
Taken 20th overall from Oregon State during the 2018 Major League Baseball draft, Larnach’s selection was largely rooted in his hit tool. Capable of lots of loud contact, Larnach generates significant bat speed and produces very high exit velocities. He is a guy that should hit for plenty of power, and he doesn’t whiff substantially in doing so. At the big league level, we have seen that, but it has come in short bursts as he has struggled to stay healthy.
Larnach has played just 130 major-league games, and his .687 OPS is not close to what he has flashed in small sample sizes. He did show off his arm in left field last season but then was shelved with a significant core muscle injury. Finding a way to force his addition to the 26-man roster this season is a must, and raking at Triple-A may be a start. To stay there this time, he’ll need to be healthy.
Following the selection of Larnach, 2019 top pick Keoni Cavaco was cut from an entirely different cloth. As a late riser and helium pick, Cavaco may have been a reach at 13th overall. He was a shortstop with tools and projection but potentially wouldn’t stick there. Now 187 games into his pro career, he has missed time with injury, missed a season due to the pandemic, and not produced at all.
Cavaco played the hot corner for Fort Myers last season as Noah Miller took over at shortstop. His .672 OPS across 99 games was a career-high, and he showed some power by hitting 11 homers. His 138/22 K/BB at Low-A doesn’t bode well for his future. Cavaco will likely start at High-A Cedar Rapids this season, but it’s not necessarily production warranted. He still will only be 22 years old, but something has to give in order for this pick to turn in some future promise.
Rounding out the group is another loud college bat, Aaron Sabato. A first baseman at North Carolina, Sabato was taken 27th overall in 2020. Like Larnach before him, the draw was a power bat that produced strong exit velocities. That’s not a skill you can teach, and he did a pretty good job of showing plate discipline as an amateur as well. Unfortunately in pro ball, the wheels have all but fallen off.
Across 210 professional games, Sabato owns an ugly .209/.355/.424 slash line. He has hit for the expected power, and he’s done a decent job drawing walks, but he also punched out 142 times last season in just 103 games at Double-A and lower. The strikeout problems aren’t going to get better as the competition increases, and it’s looked more and more likely that he may only be a designated hitter. Finding a way to show some level of plate discipline could go a long way toward avoiding this being a bust pick. Minnesota didn’t wait around with Brent Rooker, and the results there were much more manageable on the farm.
None of these three players are done with their time in the Twins organization after this year, but what their futures look like could largely be influenced by it. Larnach needs to force his way into a crowded picture, and the pair of Cavaco and Sabato need to show there is a reason why they were taken so high.
Not all first-round draft picks pan out, but Minnesota is definitely eyeing better things from this three-year stretch as soon as possible.