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Last month, Twins Daily posted our Top 30 Twins prospects. You won’t find Travis Adams ’ name in it. Of the 10 Twins Daily writers that provided their Top 30 Twins prospects, Adams appeared on just one person’s list, and that was at #28. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 30 Twins prospects. His name does not appear among the Top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. MLB.com posted an article that mentioned 11 players to follow outside of the Top 30. No, Adams wasn’t mentioned. 
Adams was not a huge prospect growing up in southern California and attending Palm Desert High School. Several of his teammates from high school are playing pro ball, and more played college baseball too. In a tournament, his team played one game against Royce Lewis and his JSerra teammates. 
 
He didn’t have many scholarship offers coming out of high school, but he was thrilled when Sacramento State offered him because he loved that part of the state and had family there. Adams grew up a Giants fan and enjoyed watching Barry Bonds, Buster Posey, and some of those strong San Francisco teams. 
“They were my first and only offer. I wanted to give the opportunity to them. I was still early in my development. I was still small. I was only throwing 85. They believed in me at a young age.” 
However, he matured, got bigger and stronger, and went to a school with an opportunity to pitch right away. As a freshman, he pitched in 15 games which included nine starts. He made four starts in 2020 before Covid canceled the season. He went 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. 
Following his sophomore season, Adams played in the Northwoods League for Wisconsin Rapids. 
“That was super fun, getting to travel and go out to Wisconsin and be with a host family. It was my first time playing summer ball and being with a host family, so it was totally different for me. I had an absolute blast. I enjoyed playing every day. It felt like minor-league baseball.” He continued, “The atmosphere and the fans we had there were great. It was a blast with all the guys I got to play with from all over the country and from different schools.” 
He made 14 starts in his junior season and went 6-3. In his three seasons at Sacramento State, Adams tossed 151 innings. He had 130 strikeouts with a remarkable 25 walks (1.5 BB/9).  
The scouts attended most of his games with their radar guns behind home plate. He also went to the combine and met with a lot of teams. He recalls going through a physical with the Twins there, but in general, the Twins didn’t show more, or maybe even as much, interest as other teams. 
“I really didn’t talk to the Twins very much. I was actually shocked on draft day when I got the phone call from them. There really wasn’t much contact between me and them prior to the draft.” 
He was at his parents' home in southern California, surrounded by family, some friends, and his girlfriend. When he got the call from the Twins and heard his name on the online draft, his phone started to blow up with calls and text messages. “It was just a great and blessed day,” he recalls. 
Adams quickly reported to Fort Myers, did some physicals, signed, and then began life as a professional. While he pitched in one game toward the end of the 2021 season, that draft year is used to let those college pitchers get some rest and learn about how the Twins work, the stats and technology they use, and develop relationships with players and coaches. 
He noted that he appreciated the value of the Trackman system over the Rapsodo system he had used in college. 
He specifically liked using the Force Plate Mound to see how his body moves and handles various stresses. Some of the things he has worked on throughout the offseason, mechanical improvements to increase velocity and consistency, are based on lessons learned from that technology. 
He began the 2022 season in Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and went 4-5 with a 3.50 ERA. In 69 1/3 innings, he walked 15 batters and struck out 69. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids to end the season and made seven starts. In 31 1/3 innings, he walked 11 and struck out 39 batters. 
To do the math for you, Adams had 108 strikeouts and 26 walks over 100 2/3 innings. He was one of seven pitchers to reach 100 minor-league innings in 2022. His 22 starts were tied with Simeon Woods Richardson, just one behind the 23 starts made by Louie Varland and Brent Headrick. 
Level-headed, the 23-year-old right-hander said, “I learned that you just have to take it start by start. If you have a bad start, you can’t get too low on it. If you have a great start, you just have to be even-keel throughout the entire season. If you get too high on the highs and too low on the lows, it’s going to be very hard on you and stressful.” 
With a solid first full minor-league season under his belt, he entered the offseason with some things to work on. There were a couple of mechanical things that he focused on to help him as he moves forward in his career. 
He throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He says the fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” 
Minor-league camp officially opened on March 1st, but he has been in Fort Myers since mid-January getting himself ready for the 2023 season. 
And now that he has that great control and command, and a fastball that hit 97 mph late in the season in Cedar Rapids last year, don’t be surprised when you see him rise up the prospect rankings at Twins Daily and other places too. 
For more Twins Daily content on Travis Adams, click here.

"He makes it look easy" is one of the highest compliments you can pay a person when it comes to something so immensely challenging as playing baseball at the highest level. 
And yet, that's Brooks Lee in a nutshell. The 2022 first-round pick has handled everything thrown at him with such a sense of grace and nonchalance that it's easy to see why the Twins keep throwing more.
Selected eighth overall out of Cal Poly, Lee impressed the organization enough with his smooth transition to the pro game that they advanced him rapidly over a two-month span. Following a brief opening stint at rookie ball, where he batted .353 in four games, Lee skipped right past Low-A and went straight to Cedar Rapids. 
In 25 games with the Kernels, the switch-hitter slashed .289/.395/.454 with four home runs and an 18-to-16 K/BB ratio. His performance was so impressive that he received a late promotion to Double-A, where he went 11-for-26 (.423) in six contests, including four playoff games.
This spring, the Twins are showing a ton of faith and belief in Lee. Oftentimes when a prospect drafted nine months earlier is invited to big-league camp, it's used as an opportunity to soak in the experience and acclimate to major-league surroundings. 
Not in Lee's case. They're throwing him right into the fire. Through the first four days of spring training games, Lee made three starts and handled the assignment with aplomb, notching four hits in nine at-bats.
"He’s clearly not overwhelmed with the situation," observed manager Rocco Baldelli after Lee went 2-for-3 against the Braves on Tuesday. 
For his part, Lee says he wasn't quite expecting to get this much early-spring action ... not that he's disappointed. "It's pretty surprising, but I signed up for it. I'm having a lot of fun."
For those familiar with Lee's background, his ability to take it all in stride and enjoy the moment shouldn't come as a huge shock.
The Coach's Kid 
The narrative about a coach's kid with supernatural baseball aptitude can be an overplayed trope, but in Lee's case it is impossible to deny. After starring for San Luis Obispo High School in California, he was considered a top name in the 2019 draft, but withdrew his name the day before, informing teams he intended to play at Cal Poly for his father Larry, who'd served as Mustangs head coach for nearly two decades. 
A 2020 season lost to injury and COVID was followed by an excellent 2021, where he batted .342 with a 1.010 OPS, and then an even better 2022, which featured a .357/.462/.664 slash line and cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick. 
Growing up as a coach's kid creates a deep and unique connection to the baseball field, and the fundamentals of the game. It's apparent to Lee's current manager, who himself was coached by his father as a youth. Rocco has credited Dan Baldelli with developing his love for the game, so he can relate to this special aspect of Lee's makeup.
"He’s a very relaxed guy when he’s at the ballpark," Baldelli said. "He gives off the impression that he is a coach’s son and he spent many, many, many years of his life at a baseball field, and he knows everything that goes on at the baseball field. It doesn’t feel like there’s a ton going on here that he’s completely unfamiliar with."
In particular, Baldelli has been impressed by Lee's ability to process information and adapt on the fly.
"The at-bats look good. He makes really good adjustments during at-bats, he finds a way to get his barrel kind of on a good plane. Depending on what’s going on in the count, depending on the pitcher he’s facing, he’s not a one-trick pony at the plate, that’s pretty clear from watching him."
This crucial quality helps explain why Lee emerged as a top 2022 draft prospect – MLB.com had him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect ahead of time – and why the Twins were so delighted to get him with the No. 8 pick. 
So far he's been everything they could've hoped, with his initial performance standing out so much that Lee managed to sneak (ever-so-slightly) past Royce Lewis to claim the No. 1 spot on our latest Twins prospect rankings. 
Now all he has to contend with is a troubled history for those who've been in this position before.
Breaking a Pattern of Top Prospect Letdowns
I wrote recently about the track record for Twins prospects who've topped our rankings over the past 10 years. It's a list that includes:
Most recently, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, who are both grappling with potentially career-threatening health issues as we head into this season.  Austin Martin, who plummeted in the rankings following a tough encore season at Double-A in 2022. Fernando Romero, who fizzled out and never came close to reaching his high-end starter potential. Byron Buxton, whose career thus far has epitomized the disruptive power of uncontrollable forces impacting elite athletes, even when their on-field play matches their promise. Can Lee break the spell? His skill set is so advanced, balanced, and resilient that it feels almost impossible to envision a Martin-esque performance drop-off. Injuries are of course less predictable, and Lee hasn't been able to totally avoid their grip – he suffered a hyperextended knee in 2020 that required surgery – but he's fully healthy and without any restriction this spring.
That differentiates them from so many other players in camp, and has probably contributed to the number of opportunities available to him here in the first week of games.
The natural question now, for The Natural, is what comes next.
What's Ahead for Brooks Lee?
I'm assuming Lee will open the year at Double-A. That's a semi-aggressive assignment on its face, but so send him back to Single-A would feel almost unfair to the pitchers there.
Once he's settled in Wichita, Lee is instantly in range of a big-league promotion, and his showing this spring helps build confidence he'll be ready for the call whenever it comes. "Offensively, defensively, everything we’ve thrown at him, he’s handled it, done it, excelled at it, and he looks good," said Baldelli.
Assuming he picks up where he left off in the minors, it becomes a matter of when and where Lee's opportunity will arise in the majors. The Twins are hoping it won't come anytime soon at shortstop, where Correa is penciled in for years to come. 
The more imminent opportunity figures to come at third base, and it sort of feels like the organization is planning around such a scenario, maybe sooner than later. Playing third would be a relatively new experience for Lee, who played shortstop exclusively in college and has yet to appear anywhere else defensively as a pro. 
He said short is his favorite position, but added, "I love third too." Maybe it's meant to be. After all, Lee was named after legendary Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. In the past, he's set his sights on an accordingly ambitious career path.
"Honestly, I think I should be a Hall of Famer when I grow up and be in the talk for one of the greatest of all time," Lee said back in 2021 as a redshirt freshman at Cal Poly. 
These days, he's a little more subdued in his goal-setting. Asked what he hopes to accomplish this year: "Just be satisfied with how I did at the end of the season, that’s all I care about. Haven’t really thought about stats or anything like that, or where I’m gonna be."
Sounds like a coach's kid. And while he doesn't have his dad in the dugout anymore, Larry is never too far away – Brooks says he talks to him "every day." Upon reaching the big leagues, Lee will have the luxury of a more contemporary mentor close at hand.
After Correa exited his spring training debut on Wednesday, I asked for his impressions of Lee thus far. 
"Man that kid is a stud," Correa said, with an added emphasis on the last word. "I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year, he’s very, very good man. Everybody I talk to about him, it’s high praise. I don’t get impressed very easily. That was definitely a great pick by the Twins."
Just a couple of first-round shortstops who make it look easy.

Caleb Thielbar just had his best career season in the Major Leagues. If you were unfamiliar with Thielbar's journey to the Big Leagues, you may think he would be a failed starter that figured things out in the bullpen or perhaps a young pitcher with a live arm that learned how to get MLB hitters out. However, as Twins fans, we know he is neither. Caleb Thielbar pitched 2022 as a 35-year-old that should have been seeing the twilight of his career in view but instead had his best season and made several improvements. You don't typically see that from someone at age 35. 
Thielbar broke into the Majors as a sinker-slider lefty specialist, a role that is becoming obsolete in MLB. He didn't strike out many hitters, and his fastball mainly sat in the upper 80s. He had an eephus-like curveball that would range into the mid-60s that was always fun to watch hitters buckle at, but it was more of a gimmick pitch. 
Thielbar was far from that pitcher in 2022. He ditched the sinker in favor of exclusively four seamers, ramped up the velocity, and transformed his fluttering curveball into a bat-missing machine. Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 
In 2022 Thielbar saw career bests in fastball, slider, and curveball velocity at 92.8, 81.3, and 73.0 MPH, respectively. Compared to his age 28 season in 2015, the first year Baseball Savant had spin rate data, Thielbar also has seen his spin rates in his fastball jump from 2,091 RPMs in 2015 to 2,298 RPMs in 2022. He made similar progress in his breaking pitches: his slider went from 1,963 RPMs in 2015 to 2,368 in 2022, and his curveball went from 2,127 to 2,455. 
As a result of these pitch improvements, Thielbar's strikeout rate in his most recent two seasons is more than 10% higher than that of his first two seasons. These are not typical improvements from someone entering their mid to late 30s. 
This data is nice, but how has it resulted in his pitching? I mentioned earlier that Thielbar was a premier left-handed reliever in 2022, and here is why. According to Baseball Savant, Thielbar completed 2022 in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity against, 100th percentile in hard hit%, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 89th percentile in xSLG. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in limiting hard contact. His improved pitch physicals also helped him miss bats; Thielbar finished 93rd percentile in K% and 80th percentile in swing and miss%. 
While batted ball data is valuable, it only tells part of the story. Sometimes results can still be underwhelming despite excellent peripherals. (Shoutout, Max Kepler). Fortunately for Thielbar, this is not the case. Using Fangraphs' splits tool, we can see Thielbar finished top ten among left-handed relievers that threw at least 50 innings in FIP (4th 2.42), xFIP (7th 3.07), K% (5th 32.7%), and K%-BB% (4th 25.3%). He also finished in the top 20 in batting average against (20th), OBP against (11th), SLG against (14th), and wOBA against (11th). 
Potential is a tricky thing to figure out. So many factors go into player development; we only see a small percentage of those as a fan. Perhaps Caleb Thielbar can help us change our perception of youth and potential. You don't have to be 22 years old to get better at baseball, and just because you hit age 30 doesn't mean you have to get worse. Maybe Caleb Thieblar can be a lesson for us when projecting a player's upside because, in 2013, I don't think anyone saw this coming from him.

Black baseball existed separately from white baseball back in the early 1900s, mainly at the regional level. Twin Cities businessman Phil "Daddy" Reid met future Hall of Famer and founder of the first professional league for African-American players, the National Negro League—Rube Foster. The two formed a friendship that led Reid to start his own ball club.
This club, however, would not be a regional team, gathering players from around the Twin Cities. Instead, Reid wanted to build a team that could compete with the best teams in the Midwest, so he hired Walter Ball to scout the country to find the best players willing to relocate to Minnesota. Many of these players had recently been released by the Leland Giants of Chicago, a team recently taken over by Rube Foster.
Among those players were team captain George Taylor and pitcher Clarence "Dude" Lytle, who led the team to astounding success. Although reports differ, the team played approximately 110 games that year with a winning percentage of around 85%, including a stretch of 36 consecutive wins. 
The team played any challengers willing to take them on, whether Black or white, including the St. Paul Saints of the American Association. Foster himself—a great pitcher who earned his nickname "Rube" after besting the legendary Rube Waddell in a 1903 exhibition—took the mound for the Gophers in the deciding game of the series against the Saints. Roster rules were a bit laxer in those days (except for the whole not-allowing-Black-players-to-play thing).
Foster would return again in 1908 to pitch for the Gophers in a game against the Hibbing Colts, throwing a no-hitter. The team brought in a few notable full-season players, including George "Rat" Johnson (he also went by "Chappie"; please, George, save some good nicknames for the rest of us) and Bill Gatewood, who joined Lytle in the rotation. The team experienced similar levels of success, winning about 75% of their approximate 120 games, though they did lose their season series to the Saints.
The Gophers were reaching the peak of their popularity. Teams from around the Midwest were lining up to take their shots at beating the juggernaut of a team—and paying good money to Daddy Reid for the privilege of losing to them, more often than not. The club also drew large crowds at their game, but not just because of their ability.
At that time, Minnesota was 0.3% Black, and although the percentage was higher within the Twin Cities, many people had never seen a Black man, let alone a Black ballplayer. Some of these players had parents who were born in slavery. There was a novelty to the game, and although the players were not allowed in "organized baseball," the average person wanted to watch these young men play.
In 1909, the team continued to grow, as the Gophers and Foster's Leland Giants took a scouting trip into the South to find adding star brothers "Candy" Jim and "Steel Arm" Johnny Taylor and a three-fingered pitcher named Julius London. Also among those joining the team that year were a spit-baller named Archie Pate, veteran Bill Binga—a defect from the cross-town rival Minneapolis Keystones—and Minnesota legend Bobby Marshall.
That year, the St. Paul Colored Gophers, at the pinnacle of their talent and popularity, would take on their greatest challenge yet—the Leland Giants. Since Foster's control of the team began, the Giants had been widely regarded as one of, if not the best, colored baseball teams in the country. Behind Foster on the mound, the team was nigh unbeatable.
The series was to be five games, held in St. Paul, with the winner declared as the "Black National Champions," as proposed by Foster. There was no tournament to be played, just the team widely considered the best in the country, squaring off against one of the most popular teams in the area. Notable and respected people from Chicago made the trip by train to see the two talented teams face off.
Unfortunately, the Gophers could not use Foster as a ringer for this series. Fortunately, he did not pitch for the Lelands, either. The series went all five games, and the Gophers clinched the series in a nail-biting 3-2 Game Five victory. Foster, always gracious in defeat, was quoted saying, "No man who ever saw the Gophers play would think of classing them world's colored champions or would think the playing ability of the other teams was very weak."
The Giants handily won Game 2 and Game 3 by scores of 8-1 and 5-1, but the Gophers' wins came in 10-9, 4-3, and 3-2 games, meaning the Giants outscored the Gophers 26-19. (Of note, the Gophers won Game 1 on a walk-off home run by St. Paul's Bobby Marshall, who would go on to become the NFL's first Black player.) Still, Foster's calling the games "exhibition contests" after the fact was probably a bit too far. Arguably the greatest player to don a Colored Gophers jersey became the team's most prominent critic.
Other teams around the country also objected to the Gophers being declared Black National Champions—given that there was no tournament or governing body. Still, such was the state of baseball at the time. Eleven years later, Foster would go on to found the Negro National League, the first step in officially organizing Black baseball. In the meantime, if Major League Baseball was crowning a World Champion every year while preventing Black players from playing, maybe the term had no meaning anyway.
The Colored Gophers would play the 1910 season before many of their key contributors moved on. In 1911, the team played under the name Twin Cities Gophers, then the St. Paul Gophers in 1913, and the Minneapolis Gophers in 1914 and 1916. Daddy Reid died of a heart attack in 1912, combined with the difficulty keeping young men in the Twin Cities, opposed to other, more favorable, US cities. The organized Negro Leagues were beginning, but an official team never laid roots in Minnesota.
Between the 1920s and 1950s, when the Negro Leagues ceased to exist, Black teams called the Gophers popped up in the Twin Cities from time to time, though none as successful or long-lasting as Daddy Reid's club. Still, notable players would come to the Twin Cities to play against the Gophers, such as Ted "Double-Duty" Radcliffe in 1942, who earned his nickname by pitching in one game of a doubleheader and catching the other.
Like many similar teams at the time, the Colored Gophers ended with a whimper, but they were instrumental in furthering the game. They brought Black baseball players from around the country to build a talented and entertaining team in Minnesota. Their existence was intimately tied to one of the most significant figures in baseball history, the Godfather of the Negro Leagues, Rube Foster. One of the biggest plays in their history was courtesy of the first Black player in the NFL, Bobby Marshall. And they were champions.
 

Yesterday, we poetically delved into the romanticism and joy that accompanies the first few days of spring training. That is appropriate; optimism is the primary characteristic of the first phase of spring training. Talking with folks on Day 1, the participants make that clear.
The Players
It’s time to shake off the rust. That starts with pitchers because they take more time to build up their arm strength. Catchers join them because nobody wants to chase the ball to the backstop after every throw. Four days later, the rest of the position players join camp, because they need less than a week to find their groove. 
Except this year, most guys are way early. It’s not totally clear why. Factors include the World Baseball Classic, optimism about the team, make-or-break years, the lack of COVID, or the fact that last year's lockdown-shortened camp. 
Whatever it is, most can’t wait. This is funny because this first part of the year has a very first-week-back-to-school feel. Players are excited to see each other again. The new kids are making friends; finding a lunch table at which to sit. 
There’s excitement in the air. Goals are fresh in mind. Some are eager to show they’re healthy. Some are eager to test whether or not their offseason workouts will pay dividends on the field. At the very least, those workouts are over. Baseball is the fun part of the season. 
Coaches
The first week of school comparison also applies to coaches, trainers, management, etc. Yes, they are also excited to reconnect with each other and players. But the teachers are also sizing up their students' potential - both for greatness and for trouble. They also get a chance to see younger players whom they have only heard about in the minors. Glimpsing the future in those newcomers fires up everyone who loves the game. 
By definition, the coaches love the game; they wouldn’t have chosen their career if they didn’t. So if you think the players are excited, you can only imagine the spring in the coaching staff’s step. 
Reporters
For reporters, this is the best part of camp, too. Players are ready to talk, partly because they’re excited, but also because we haven’t worn them down with the same questions repeatedly. So this is an opportunity to interview players, transcribe the interviews, and then tuck them away to be referenced in a future story.
The Love of the Game exhilaration applies here, too. Being a beat writer for baseball is a grind, even compared to other sports beats that grind. It’s basically every day or night, for eight months, and the opportunities often require relocating. Again, nobody who isn’t obsessed with baseball subjects themselves to that, especially for what they are paid.  
Plus - I won’t lie - the days are shorter in this phase of spring training. No afternoon games, and no trips across the state. It’s easily the best and most productive time to attend as a reporter. 
Fans
It’s the best time to attend as a fan, too, at least if your goal is to have more interaction with the players than you’re likely to ever have again.
There is a path to the practice field where the players walk early each morning and back late each morning. It has barriers to separate them from fans, but the barriers are waist high, and, as mentioned, the players are generally excited. They will often stop for selfies, autographs, high 5s, etc., especially on the way back. 
Plus, batting cages and the bullpens are both somewhat viewable as well. Want to see Jhoan Duran’s velocity up close? Or see Nick Gordon working with Torii Hunter in the batting cage? There are no guarantees but you’ll see something if you peer long enough through the fences and screens.
There is one day in particular when excitement is at its peak, and the Twins announced that today. The day after position players report, the Twins have an open house, where they open up Hammond Stadium (including concessions), have some special events (especially for kids), and provide even more chances to interact with players. This year, it’s Monday, the 20th. 
But mostly any day before games start, you’ll have access you can’t quite believe - provided you show up in the morning. Timing is the biggest obstacle to all these experiences - they happen in the morning. This is by design: Florida can get pretty hot in the afternoons. 
Players are often in the fields  By 9 AM. (Some much earlier.) they’re often back by 11 or 12.  The camp can be a ghost town in the afternoon. You’ve been warned. 
Am I trying to convince you to come to spring training? Yes. Yes, I am. If you care enough to seek out Twins news on Day 1, you probably care enough to enjoy yourself. And if you are reading this because you’re excited about watching grown men play catch, then you’re going to fit right in, right here, right now. 
 

It would not at all be fair to suggest that patience was a key reason Carlos Correa will be a Minnesota Twin for the bulk of his prime. Certainly, that is how things worked out, but it took both the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets backing out of deals in order to make it happen. It doesn’t matter to Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, however, as both are simply ecstatic it got done. With that deal, Minnesota was able to turn the tide.
Without Correa, and leaning on the likes of Kyle Farmer, it was worth wondering if impending free agents such as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, or Tyler Mahle made sense to keep around. The Twins have a solid amount of pitching prospect depth, and while none of them currently look the part of an ace, they all carry a fairly high floor.
The notion that Minnesota’s front office may have needed to pivot on its strategy of competitiveness changed in an instant. With Correa, the future becomes clear.
Coming off two straight losing seasons, Rocco Baldelli and the Twins are angling to again be atop the AL Central. Chicago’s offseason was not a good one, and although Andrew Benintendi was a fine signing, Mike Clevinger is looking like a non-factor. The Guardians went out and got both Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, but it remains clear that the bulk of their production will need to come from internally-developed options.
For Minnesota, Correa anchors an infield that now sees both Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee turn into supplemental talents. With both being Top 100 prospects, there is plenty of reason to believe they can contribute in a big way wherever they find opportunity. Byron Buxton is here for good, and although Joey Gallo is currently on just a one-year deal, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and even Austin Martin all represent long-term outfield options.
Jose Miranda looks the part of a fixture on the infield, and with a healthy wrist, Alex Kirilloff can be in a similar situation. Joe Ryan isn’t going anywhere in the rotation, and Pablo Lopez brings team control with him. For the first time in quite a while, the narrative isn’t about a window or a fleeting opportunity.
For a front office, this should always be the goal. While winning a World Series is obviously the ultimate pinnacle, finding a way to sustain relevance is key. Attendance dipped lower than it has in decades last season, but fans will come back to the ballpark for a winner. They may immediately be mad that Luis Arraez is gone, but when the team has a lead in August, none of that will matter anymore.
Before the Twins can look at putting another ring on their fingers, they’ll need to slay the giant that is the postseason losing streak. Putting themselves in a position to be a yearly participant was the goal, and it looks as though they have achieved that as a baseline. Consistency is now something that both Buxton and Correa can preach to youth, and it’s something that can be sold to free agents in the coming years.
The front office will continue needing to change out parts, but that is a yearly process in baseball. The core of this roster is here to stay, and much of it looks to have talent worthy of starting on a nightly basis. It’s not as though the Twins are all of a sudden some sort of juggernaut, but the bones of the 26-man roster look better than they have in a long time.
It was a weird way to get here, but Twins fans should be excited about this promise for years to come.

Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. 
Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split  - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: 
Sonny Gray
Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9
Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9
Joe Ryan
Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9
Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9
Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. 
Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9
Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9
Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin?
Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. 
All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. 
But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage.  
This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. 
Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium. 

Age: 23 (DOB: 3/23/1999)
2022 Stats (AA): 406 PA, 241/.367/.316, 2 HR, 35 RBI, 35 SB
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 1
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
What's To Like?
Austin Martin was brought into the Minnesota Twins organization, along with Simeon Woods Richardson, when the front office traded Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays. It was Martin that was the headliner of that package, and that’s not a surprise given he was taken 5th overall in the 2020 Major League Baseball draft.
 
Martin debuted in the Twins system last year playing just under 40 games at Double-A Wichita. He brought an .807 OPS from the Blue Jays stems, and finished the year with a .779 OPS for the Wind Surge. It was clear that Martin’s best offensive skills included a strong on-base ability, and utilizing significant speed on the basepaths.
Sent back to Double-A in 2022, Martin struggled. His 90 games resulted in just a .683 OPS and it was clear there was an emphasis being put on tapping into power. The Twins made adjustments to Martin’s swing in hopes of recording more doubles and home runs. That didn’t work, and the results spoke for themselves.
Martin then went to the Arizona Fall League and ended his season on a very high note. Putting together a .936 OPS across 21 games against the best prospects in baseball, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a big-league regular. Across the action in Arizona, he hit just one homer but racked up six doubles. The power probably isn’t ever going to come, but that could make his path to the big leagues more straightforward.
What's Left to Work On
It’s questionable at best as to whether Martin can remain at shortstop. He has played some second base and outfield however, and could morph into a guy that has utility all over the field. His speed plays well on the grass, and while his arm strength is nothing to write home about, it works at other positions. With Minnesota having seen so many debuts a season ago, it’s entirely possible that Martin makes it to the big leagues this year. Pushing him to Triple-A St. Paul makes a good deal of sense, and allowing him to be an on-base machine while simplifying the approach could right the course in a big way. He had almost neutral strikeout to walk numbers last season, and slotting in as a traditional leadoff hitter makes a lot of sense.
After his 2022 Martin fell off all national prospect lists, but the year ahead could be a significant one for him. He’ll be 24-years-old in March, and going back to what made him so desirable out of Vanderbilt may be enough to trend his stock back upwards. It’s difficult to see a perennial All-Star or high ceiling type of talent with the power potential so limited, but there can be a regular in this type of profile and that should make the Twins happy.
What's Next
Depending on how the Twins roster shakes out with injury and performance this season, Martin could find himself contributing at second base behind Jorge Polanco. Maybe he debuts in a Nick Gordon utility type of role, and he could assume whatever playing time Kyle Farmer currently has ticketed for himself. No matter what, there is a multitude of ways in which Martin could factor into Rocco Baldelli's plans.
The sooner Martin begins to hit for average at Triple-A, and uses his on-base skills to generate runs, he'll be seen as a potential option for promotion. He's not yet on the 40-man roster, but a little juggling could certainly take care of that. Assuming the organization has all but moved on from forcing him into power potential, Martin is very close to a finished product.
Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15

The human brain is fantastic, but it doesn't have the power to consider everything. For example, before you read this sentence, you ignored that you could see your nose. Your mind had been ignoring that because it's not essential.
Cognitive psychologists refer to our brains' shortcuts as heuristics or cognitive biases. There's nothing wrong with them, but they're important to remember. They play a part in the way we watch sports.
There are popular shortcuts that many people know about, such as anchoring, where we tend to base our opinions on something more in a first impression than information we learn later. I won't name names, but some schmucks may still think Miguel Sanó could be an MVP based solely on his 2015 rookie campaign.
Confirmation bias leads us to latch on to evidence that supports our preconceived notions over evidence against them. Perhaps another person supports their disdain for Miguel Sanó because of his many strikeouts, ignoring his 500-foot moonshots.
If this stuff interests you, check out this very approachable list of a few dozen different biases and heuristics). There's a well-known bias that explains what I'm going to discuss, so I'll dip into developmental psychology for this discussion.
Two episodes from the last year or so stand out to me when I think about how our brains consume sports, not so much because of what happened, but because of people's reactions.
1. After a disappointing 73-89 2021 season, owner Jim Pohlad gave the front office an A+ grade. 
2. During the 2022 season, the Twins were not completely transparent about Byron Buxton 's schedule as he worked through knee pain.
In both episodes, fans and media were in the streets wailing and gnashing their teeth. Both instances were frustrating, but were they worth the consternation they received?
One of the points in an infant's growth that developmental psychologists have identified is the development of object permanence. If you've ever played peek-a-boo with an infant, you will have seen it in action. When the adult's face hides behind the hands, then reappears, the infant gets excited because, before the face reappears, they didn't think it existed anymore.
Infants struggle to understand that things they don't see can still exist. It is a bit wild to think about. Sometimes I'm, as an adult, convinced that I don't own buffalo sauce until my wife points out the bottle in the fridge and the bottle next to it from the last time I didn't think we had any.
But enough about buffalo sauce, how does object permanence pertain to what I'm talking about here?
In the first example, many fans took Jim's comments to mean that he genuinely had no issues with how the season went and was perfectly pleased. Because this was, for the most part, the amount of information fans had to go off of, it seemed like his complete thoughts on the topic.
We, as fans, are not privy to the conversations behind closed doors between an owner and upper management of the team. Heck, others in baseball operations aren't made aware of every conversation. We can forget that.
Instead, we latch on to the soundbite and forget that the group is constantly communicating for the other 364 days a year, working toward their shared goals. Because we don't see it, though, it doesn't exist.
Please don't read this as me saying that there shouldn't be criticism of the group. We sometimes pay too much attention to the tiny bits of interaction with which we are privileged.
The second example, regarding Bryon's knee, is a bit more egregious. Following his knee flair-up in Boston last April, his presence in the lineup was a bit scattershot, which was obviously frustrating for fans—if for no other reason than that fans want to see the best players play.
However, there was a common attitude that Byron's seemingly haphazard presence in the lineup was evidence that there was "no plan" for him to play. Why? Because the team did not make any statement on his status on a day-to-day basis.
In reality, the team was monitoring his knee and its pain and range of motion daily—adjusting whenever needed. It makes sense that no team personnel would make an official statement regarding his expectations because the situation was developing.
This lack of information led some fans to see the handling as incompetent, and they believed that the team lacked a plan for getting him back out there.
Instead, behind the scenes, Buxton spent hours every day working on getting his body ready to compete. His situation was fluid, and the team was adapting to new information daily. But we, as fans, had no explicit information telling us this, so instead, because we couldn't see it, our brains told us that nothing was happening.
Perhaps there's an argument that teams should be more forthcoming with information so that fans can make more informed reactions. Still, we would have blind spots that our brains would fill in.
It's important to remember that pro sports are filled with professionals working full-time jobs. The people on the other side of the glass spend their entire days making decisions about the team that we watch for four hours a day with a rain delay. They want to win more than you want them to (with minimal exceptions).
If we fall into the trap of believing that what we see in press conferences or public statements is the entirety of the situation, our opinions can become relatively uninformed.
Some people may be incompetent at their jobs and worthy of criticism, but that criticism should be based on what we can observe rather than the gaps our brains fill in. Remember that even if we don't see it, things are happening.

Joe Ryan seems like a cerebral individual, especially regarding the art and science of pitching. 
"I love talking pitching," Ryan told Fangraphs.com's David Laurilia in April. "I love messing around with the baseball, manipulating it in the dugout, just getting that feel. Then I get back on the mound with all of that. It's a good time."
"Messing around with the baseball" makes it sound like his pitches happen by a cosmic accident, but as you can glean from his back and forth with Laurilia, Ryan's approach is far from accidental. He cites vertical approach angle and horizontal break, reviewing video of his recent outings and those of his high school days when he pitched from a higher arm slot (he tried to emulate Tim Lincecum). While there is some experimentation in pitching, Ryan's practice is very much deliberate. 
Ryan was a unicorn in that his fastball, while thrown at a very average velocity, piled up swinging strikes at the rate of a much harder thrower. As I detailed after he arrived in 2021, Ryan's low arm slot and riding fastball were thrown at the upper third of the strike zone, turning hitters into pretzels. 
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Rewind a year or two and the likes of Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff were seen as foundational pieces for Rocco Baldelli’s future lineup. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had put together an organizational structure allowing such young talents to thrive, and the pair looked the part of potential superstars in the not-so-distant future.
When looking at the Minnesota lineup this year, plenty has been suggested about a team that struggled to score runs in 2022 and not a substantial amount of addition. What that unfortunately negates is a belief in youth that had once been there. Yes, Carlos Correa is back, and Joey Gallo could rebound. Christian Vazquez is probably better than Gary Sanchez, but the overhaul hasn’t been substantial. It shouldn’t need to be though, if the power pair can produce.
For the past couple of seasons, we have seen Kirilloff struggle with a wrist injury that has had him nowhere near his best. Playing in just 104 games at the big league level the past two seasons, Kirilloff has compiled a mediocre 94 OPS+. The on-base skills are hardly what they were in the minors, and his power production has been all but sapped. At least we have answers as to why.
It was clear at different points over the past two seasons that when Kirilloff’s wrist wasn’t nagging him, the bat was as expected. He’s not the prototypical slugger that sells out for power. When right, Kirilloff should possess the ability to be a .300 or better hitter while driving the ball to all fields. With his wrist nagging him, follow through at the point of contact was non-existent, and a rare double seemed to be as good as it gets.
Having undergone a much more aggressive wrist surgery late last season, the hope is that Kirilloff can put the injury behind him. He is trending well, and there has been no shutdown similar to the one we were made aware of last offseason. He’s hitting, working on baseball activities, and being anywhere near full health should strike fear in opposing pitchers on a daily basis. For Larnach, the injury history is not as substantial. A core muscle surgery sidelined him for the remainder of last season following a strong start. He wound up playing in just 51 games, but tallied a 104 OPS+. The power spiked a bit more than we saw during his 2021 debut, and it was starting to look like he was settling in as a big leaguer.
Although the bat has long been lauded as his calling card, Larnach also fared incredibly well in the outfield. Team’s continued to run on him in left field, and he racked up assists while routinely nailing runners at the plate. Although not as athletic as some of Minnesota’s other outfield defenders, Larnach proved far more than just a bat-only type of player.
Having taken time to fully heal, the expectation should be that he can hit the ground running and produce in a big way this year. The Twins have a significant amount of lefty bats they may need to balance in the lineup, but Larnach could certainly get run at the designated hitter spot. If he can hold serve anything like he did on the farm, and has shown in brief stints at the highest level, Baldelli will have plenty to be excited about when putting him in the lineup.
Maybe the Twins could have done more to add ability into the lineup this offseason. That said, banking on the development they have always been encouraged by is hardly a misstep either. This pair of prospects have topped charts and been highly anticipated for some time. Still young, and now healthy, breakouts for both could be on the horizon.

Yes, we all know that health uncertainty is the banner headline for the 2023 Twins. "If they're healthy" is the rallying cry for even the most optimistic fan. 
As pivotal as they are, these situations just aren't very fun to analyze or talk about, because they feel so beyond anyone's control. Much of the team's outlook hinges on whether Tyler Mahle can pitch without shoulder weakness, and Alex Kirilloff can swing without pain.
These things either will happen or they won't, and if they don't, it's not necessarily anyone's fault. The human body is fickle.
Today I'm going to look at five critical points of uncertainty for the Twins that have nothing to do with injuries. (Well, almost nothing.) Instead, it's about these players proving they can deliver in areas where the club really needs them if they're to achieve their goals.
1. Can Joe Ryan excel against good teams?
Hidden in Ryan's very good overall numbers last year (13-8, 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts) is the fact that his success was largely buoyed by beating up on horrible AL Central opponents.
In eight starts against the Royals and Tigers, the two teams he faced more than any other, Ryan went 8-0 with a 0.94 ERA. He won every start, allowing just five earned runs on 26 hits (one homer) in 48 innings.
Look: that's an absurd level of dominance against any major-league lineup. Ryan certainly deserves a ton of credit for being absolutely automatic in those match-ups. But the flip side is that against all other opponents, he went 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA. 
The 26-year-old has already established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who can take care of business against lesser lineups. But with so many question marks elsewhere in the rotation, the Twins are really leaning on him to be more. 
Showing he can up his game against better offenses than Detroit and KC will be key, both because he'll face less of each in the rebalanced schedule, and because the Twins will (hopefully) need starters they can count on in the postseason.
2. Can Jorge Polanco fill Luis Arraez's OBP void?
There's no question that Arraez's ability to get on base will be deeply missed, and his departure raises questions about how a power-driven lineup will fare without his penchant for creating opportunities. There's reason to hope Polanco can make up for some of what the top of the order just lost.
You might look at Polanco's career .334 OBP and say, eh, nothing special. Even his .346 mark last year was quite ordinary. But here's the thing: he posted it while batting a career-low .235, thanks to DOUBLING his walk rate from 2021. Polanco's 14.4% BB rate last year would've ranked fifth-best in baseball if his at-bats qualified. 
If the newfound patience sticks and Polanco is able to sustain a similar walk rate while his batting average rebounds to somewhere in the range of his .270 career benchmark, you've got the recipe for an Arraez-like OBP, or better.
To wit: if Polanco walked at same rate in 2021 – when he batted .269 with a .323 OBP – as he did in 2022, he would've had 92 walks and a .395 on-base percentage. 
3. Can Nick Gordon make himself essential?
Gordon is coming off a breakthrough season that earned him Most Improved Twin honors and saw him accrue nearly 450 plate appearances. In many cases, a campaign like that for a former first-round draft pick would open the door for a big opportunity, if not a starting role. But the circumstances of the offseason leave him in a spot where he'll be scrapping for playing time from the start, and potentially buried on the depth chart.
He's not their top backup center fielder (that's Michael A. Taylor). He's not their best lefty-swinging backup corner OF or DH option (that's Trevor Larnach). He's not their top backup anywhere in the infield, and in fact, I'd be somewhat surprised if the Twins view him as anything more than an emergency option on the dirt.
Injuries can of course change the equation here, but as things stand, Gordon will have a hard time finding his way off the bench with any regularity. That is, unless he can force the issue. At times last year the former light-hitting shortstop looked like a game-changing offensive force, like in August when he slashed .321/.360/.531 with three steals and 17 RBIs in 26 games. Gordon was electric.
Bring more of that to the table, and Rocco Baldelli will find a way to get Gordon into the lineup as much as he can.
4. Can José Miranda play third base effectively?
The viability of Miranda's bat is not in question after a convincing rookie campaign that saw him handle everything MLB pitchers could throw at him, thanks to high-contact swing that generated power to all fields. 
Now he needs to define his defensive future.
If he's able to hold on as a capable third baseman, at least for a few years, as opposed to switching to 1B/DH duty, it'd be a boon for the team's planning and lineup-building. An early slide down the defensive spectrum diminished Arraez's value in the front office's eyes, but Miranda can still avoid that route.
Thus far, I would say the signs are less than encouraging. His defense at third base checked out pretty poorly last year, by almost any measure or metric, and scouting reports were hardly glowing in the minors.
But plenty of third basemen who looked rough as rookies went on to establish themselves  at the hot corner (calling Corey Koskie), and Miranda's still only 24. His offseason efforts to slim down have also notably resulted in a body that, per Carlos Correa, "looks sexy." We'll see if the defense can follow suit.
5. Can Jorge Alcalá get lefties out?
Coming off a season where he made only two appearances due to an elbow injury that ultimately required debridement surgery, Alcalá is obviously a health question mark. Can his arm hold up, much less get back to pumping the upper-90s heat that led to big results in 2020/21?
The Twins seem to be counting on it, because they have yet to make any significant additions to their bullpen this offseason. Unless that changes, they're banking largely on Alcalá's return to provide depth in the mid-to-late innings, setting the table for Jhoan Durán and Jorge López at the back end.
Even assuming he's healthy, Alcalá needs to turn one more corner to be the kind of weapon the Twins need him to be. He needs to overcome his susceptibility against left-handed pitchers, who have pummeled him to the tune of .275/.358/.508 in his MLB career. That .866 OPS is 354 points higher than his mark against righties.
Baldelli will have the ability to strategically deploy Alcalá in favorable match-ups to an extent, but if the righty wants to truly be relied upon as a key late-inning weapon, he'll need to show he can handle the lefty sluggers and pinch-hitters that come his way.

Following a .973 OPS across 124 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, Jose Miranda found his way into the Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect lists coming into the 2022 season. Even as he tore up the two levels previously, there just wasn’t room for him on the Opening Day roster.
Last season, Rocco Baldelli broke camp with Miguel Sano as his first baseman and Gio Urshela manning the hot corner. Luis Arraez was a utility defender factoring in both places, and Nick Gordon was even further insurance. As much as Miranda did the year prior, he was going to need to force his way in or wait for an opportunity.
It was an incredibly small sample size for Miranda before making his May 2nd debut with the Twins. Playing in only 21 games for Triple-A St. Paul last year, he posted just a .737 OPS during a cold month of April. His 10 doubles were promising, as were the two blasts, but everyone knew what they saw a season ago was real.
When the dust settled on his rookie season, Miranda wound up playing in 125 games for the Twins. His 116 OPS+ was a very promising start, and he rocketed his first 15 homers while still contributing a .325 on-base percentage. Through his first 80 games Miranda had an extremely impressive .811 OPS, and it wasn’t until pitchers began to figure him out and make adjustments that numbers slipped late.
Entering 2023, plenty more is known for Miranda. Urshela and Arraez are both gone. He will play the hot corner, a position he has more traditionally called home. Despite being lackluster defensively at first base last season, it’s at third where he shines a bit brighter. He’ll again have veteran Carlos Correa to guide him on the left side, and their friendship has only strengthened since the Puerto Rican descended upon Spring Training last year.
Knowing where he stands within the organization should provide some level of comfort this spring. Miranda is projected to be worth 2.6 fWAR per Steamer, which would more than double his 2022 value. A .269/.324/.449 slash line reflects a nice jump in overall OPS, and 20 homers would be a good boost from the power production a season ago. Steamer also has these numbers derived from just 133 games, which would only be slightly more than Miranda played at the big league level last season. Barring an untimely injury, he should be expected to cruise past that number. While it looked as though Correa may head to New York and play third base alongside fellow Puerto Rican Francisco Lindor, his return to Minnesota keeps him at shortstop and still has him playing alongside a countrymen. Miranda has already established himself as a substantial part of the Twins future, but it’s in 2023 that he could break out to an even higher level.
For a guy that is not at all unaware of success in this sport, seeing growth in year two of the majors would be a substantial boost for all involved. Plenty of the Twins lineup will be reliant on youth doing the heavy lifting, and for a team that isn’t old by any means, there is no reason why the 24-year-old Miranda can’t be right in the thick of it.
The rookie debut was a fun one, but a breakout similar to that of which we saw on the farm in 2021 would carry the Twins youngster to new heights.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer. 
Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? 
Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. 
However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. 
Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. 
In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. 
The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. 
I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere
 

There have been points this winter where we were waiting for a Max Kepler trade announcement within the coming hours, such as when Joey Gallo was signed. Here we are at the end of January, however, and not only is Max Kepler still a Twin, it appears that may not change after all.
When Disco Dan Hayes makes such a statement, it’s wise to listen. The Twins still see value in Kepler, at least more than other teams appear to on the trade market. It’s a fair stance. It’s hard to trade a player for less than a team feels they’re worth. That being said, if Max Kepler stays in Minnesota another year, the Twins need to get realistic about what they have in their homegrown corner outfielder.
Max Kepler was seen as a breakout candidate for years before finally doing so in 2019. His 122 wRC+ that year made him appear to be a future star player, slugging 36 homers and crushing lefties, his biggest weakness as a hitter. We now have about 1,500 plate appearances prior to 2019 and over 1000 after saying that Max Kepler is not the player he was in 2019, and it’s time the Twins stop pretending he is.
The realistic description of Max Kepler is that he’s a defense first strong side platoon player with a plate approach that should keep him out of the everyday lineup. In about 1,100 plate appearances since 2019, Max Kepler has slashed .220/.314/.392. His 98 wRC+ is 2% below league average for that time period, but playing the premier offensive position of corner outfield means that he’s even further below average than that relative to his positional peers. 
The Twins roster is ripe with reasons for Max Kepler not to have right field locked down everyday. Trevor Larnach nearly had as many Defensive Runs saved as Kepler in far fewer innings defensively in 2022, and there’s still a chance he hits left handed pitching and becomes a legitimate everyday player. Joey Gallo, for as much hate as he gets, is a legit plus player in the outfield defensively, and his career wRC+ is over 30 points higher against left handed pitching while his splits against right handed pitching are nearly identical to Kepler. Newly added outfielder Michael Taylor, who is known for being a non contributor offensively, blows Kepler away against left handed pitching for their careers.
 In 2022, Max Kepler took 60% of his plate appearances in the 1-4 spots of the lineup and about 43% of his plate appearances in the cleanup spot. There’s simply no justification for the Twins to continue this moving forward. With a career .744 OPS, Kepler hasn’t even reached the .720 mark since the shortened 2020 season. Even against right handed pitching Kepler has been surpassed by players such as Nick Gordon, who performed considerably better offensively as a platoon player in 2022. The Twins have assembled enough depth to keep Kepler from hitting in the heart of the lineup, and from playing in same-handed matchups at all. At 30 years old it’s time to recognize that this is the caliber of player that Max Kepler is.
All of this to say that Max Kepler is a fine player… as a depth piece. There will be times where his defensive value is needed, and given the Twins recent injuries, he'll be a fine everyday fill-in for short periods if need be. In terms of 2022 calculated value per WAR, Kepler was still a value as he was paid $6.75m and was worth a bit over $10m by 2022 free agency measures. His $8.5m salary in 2023 and $10m team option for 2024 become much more in question however.
If Kepler plays less in 2023 and/or his defensive value declines even slightly, he becomes less of a value and a prime candidate to have his 2024 option declined. This is why it’s still somewhat puzzling that the Twins don’t appear to be determined to trade him. With the shift ban on the horizon, it’s not a stretch to call it likely that Kepler’s value may never be higher despite the fact that it doesn’t look like he’ll benefit all that much from the rule change.
The Twins may still very well trade Max Kepler. If they don’t however, they need to use him in an appropriate role. He’s not a player whose performance demands at bats. He’s not part of the core of the lineup.
 

After coming to terms with the Twins earlier today on a one-year $2.4M deal to avoid arbitration, Chris Paddack agreed to a contract extension that will allow the team to keep him pitching for the Twins for 2+ more years when he returns from Tommy John surgery later this season, Twins Daily has learned. Financial details of the contract have not been disclosed, but it is expected to be worth $10-15M in total value. 
Remember Chris Paddack? Of everything that went wrong with the 2022 Twins, Paddack’s early-season promise and immediate surgery happened so quickly that an adept gaslighter could convince one that he never existed in the first place. 
Paddack’s career arc is well-documented. The 27-year-old former starting pitching phenom traveled to San Diego from Miami in a trade for—you're going to love this—Fernando Rodney. From there, he shot up prospect lists and became a popular pick to become a major league regular. His 2019 rookie season proved promising, as the youngster made the opening day roster by surprise and accrued 140 ⅔ quality innings. The future seemed bright.
The future is also mean. Paddack’s fastball/changeup combo went from electric to the little shock that emanates from one of those fake gum gimmick toys. Paddack's numbers dropped with no useful third pitch in sight; however, his home runs continued to stay high, and both 2020 and 2021 were a wash.
Feeling the itch to trade someone, A.J. Preller moved Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Brayan Medina for Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker, announcing that it would be someone else’s problem to fix the former future ace.
Minnesota may have done that. Paddack carried a hilarious 1.72 FIP through five games—not giving up a homer will do that—and even appeared to have worked in an adequate slider to pair with his fastball and changeup. Then the elbow started barking. the Paddack now enjoys company in the double Tommy John club. No one wants to be a part of such a gathering.
Three members of the Twins' projected starting rotation will be free agents at the end of the year. The Twins are gambling that, in an age where high schoolers undergo the operation, a second Tommy John surgery simply means a pair of scars, and Paddack can return to being a promising pitcher on a staff in need of younger blood.
John Bonnes contributed to this story.

Jovani Moran is far from a Twins top prospect. He’s slowly worked his way up the system since being drafted in 2015 and will be 26 years old in 2023. He averaged just a bit above 93 mph on his fastball and lacks the nasty wipeout slider to truly dominate same handed hitters as you normally see in left handed relievers. He’s not currently an impactful part of the 2023 Twins pitching staff, but he could be.
By now we all know the deal with Jovani Moran. He walks too many hitters and his main out pitch is a changeup, making him almost more of a right handed reliever due to the pitches harsh splits against right handed hitters (.458 OPS allowed in 2022). He’s a bit of an enigma due to his lack of velocity and pitch mix that still resulted in an incredible 32.9% K rate. With being somewhat of a unicorn, can Moran continue succeeding at the MLB level if he’s given a true opportunity in 2023?
We’ve seen the worst of Moran, at times appearing to have no idea how to find the strike zone. This is easily the number one concern, as on occasion we’ve seen him walk the bases loaded and look completely uncompetitive. It’s always been a part of his game and his 11% BB rate in 2022 was a bit of a tightrope act. Consider however that that 11% rate was his best since 2019 in AA, and was a significant improvement on his 18.4% BB rate in 2021. Moran appears to have improved, and while his career has been up and down, it’s at least encouraging to see.
Some would argue that Moran’s 2.21 ERA in 2022 was unsustainable not only because of his walk rates, but because he performed much worse with a 6.00 ERA in AAA which could be the true indicator of his abilities. Consider however that the 6.00 ERA in AAA was backed up by a 3.01 FIP and 2.75 xFIP. Moran had an unsustainable 65.4 left on base % and 16.7 homer to flyball rate. While he walked more batters with the Saints, it looks like what could go wrong did. Furthermore, his 2.21 ERA with the Twins was backed up by a 2.28 xERA, 1.78 FIP, and 2.88 xFIP. These aren’t predictive stats, but looking at his ERAs in AAA and at the MLB level, it sure seems the latter was the more legitimate outcome.
It’s hard to call Moran the second lefty in the Twins bullpen, and he certainly shouldn’t be trusted in high leverage immediately. Moran has earned an opportunity to be a bullpen regular however. Any pitch with a near 50% whiff rate should immediately earn a pitcher an extended look, and Moran’s changeup has posted this mark in both of his MLB seasons. In 2022 the pitch allowed a .101/.158/.139 line, and his fastball was a great pitch as well. He also gets a decent amount of ground balls and he’s allowed just 14 homers in his entire 200+ professional innings. With such standout characteristics in his profile, Moran should easily be ahead of relievers such as Trevor Megill for low leverage spots.
This isn’t a call to make Moran a featured reliever out of the Twins bullpen in 2023. He has several elite skills however and if he can improve on his walk rate just a bit more, he’s flashed the ability to thrive in a high leverage role. Being used as he was in 2022 however will certainly not bring that possibility to fruition. As a home grown talent on a team that doesn’t invest in the bullpen, there’s simply no reason to continue bouncing him in between the majors and minors while giving fringe MLB pitchers opportunities.
2023 should bring opportunity for Jovani Moran who arguably should’ve earned more of it in 2022. If he even hits his 60th percentile, the Twins would have a unique weapon out of the bullpen and would make playing the matchups an absolute nightmare for opposing clubs. It’s time for Jovani Moran to get some respect.

If you like, you can quickly catch up on the ground rules for this exercise in the first installment. The short version is this that we're attempting to rank Twins players and prospects through a big-picture lens in asking: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?
Here in this third installment, breaking down my picks for #6 through #10, we find a couple of great hitters with defensive fit question marks, two top prospects with sky-high potential, and an elite reliever who made his mark as a rookie in 2022.
First, a recap of the list as it stands, from Part 1 and Part 2 of the series:
20. Matt Wallner, OF
19. Louie Varland, RHP
18. Sonny Gray, RHP
17. Jorge Lopez, RHP
16. Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B
15. Ryan Jeffers, C
14. Trevor Larnach, OF
13. Austin Martin, SS/OF
12. Connor Prielipp, LHP
11. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023: 6 through 10
10. Luis Arraez, 1B
2022 Ranking: 11
Part of the challenge in these rankings is removing emotion and personal bias from the equation. The idea is to attempt an objective evaluation of players as assets, and that means taking factors like popularity and likability – which of course work strongly in Arraez's favor – largely off the table. What are we left with?
A great hitter, to be sure. Arraez had a career year in 2022, earning an All-Star nod, batting title, and Silver Slugger award. He's a premium bat and a rare breed in today's MLB. 
But it also seems telling that such a core fixture wasn't even in Minnesota's Opening Day lineup. Arraez is an odd fit. The team never seemed comfortable with his defense at second or third – certainly not the outfield – and now he's basically become a 1B/DH type with no power. His offense still stands out at those positions, just not to the same degree.
Descending so far on the defensive spectrum, and already experiencing recurring leg issues, by the age of 25 portends a tough aging curve for Arraez, who has three years of team control remaining. 
The impact of his bat and elite OBP skills cannot be downplayed, and his presence on the team is electric, but the lack of power, speed or defensive impact limit has value as an asset.
9. Jose Miranda, 1B/3B
2022 Ranking: 15
In terms of player profile, Miranda is not too dissimilar from Arraez: a bat-first corner infielder in his mid-20s, probably better suited for first than third. The difference is that he's younger, cheaper, and could offer more impact both offensively and defensively.
Coming off a breakthrough campaign in the minors, Miranda verified his hitting excellence with an impressive major-league debut. In 125 games he slashed .268/.325/.426 for a 116 OPS+ as a rookie. With outstanding strike zone coverage and ability to drive to all fields, the 24-year-old was never an easy assignment for even the most experienced big-league pitchers.
He's not quite the overall hitter Arraez is yet, but thanks to his budding power, Miranda has the potential to be a better one, and a much more prototypical corner slugger. He also has three extra years of team control.
8. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
2022 Ranking: NR
This ranking might be considered a leap of faith: a 19-year-old who hasn't played above A-ball, coming off a major knee injury, ranked ahead of an All-Star in Arraez and stud rookie in Miranda?
Maybe it is, but I'm that much of a believer in Rodriguez, the system's breakout star of 2022. Prior to suffering a meniscus tear in July that ended his season, the center fielder was spectacular in Fort Myers, slashing .272/.493/.552 in 47 games. 
Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2019 for $2.5 million, Rodriguez showed in his first turn at full-season ball that he's the full package: great defense, power, discipline, speed.
Among players to make at least 100 plate appearances in the Florida State League, Rodriguez's 1.024 OPS ranked second only to Jacob Gonzalez, a 24-year-old 1B/DH. Nobody else was within 80 points of the transcendent E-Rod, who generated huge buzz inside and outside the organization and will surely appear prominently on preseason global top prospect lists when they start to roll out soon.
He's got a ways to go, and the knee injury slowed his ascent, but Rodriguez is one of the crown jewels in this system and undoubtedly one of their most coveted, valuable trade chips.
7. Jhoan Duran, RHP
2022 Ranking: 14
We knew at this time last year that Duran had an amazing arm. The big question marks suppressing his perceived value: could we count on that arm to stay healthy, and did he have any chance of sticking as a starter?
It turns out, no, he wasn't going to stay in a starting role. Instead he transitioned to the back of the big-league bullpen and immediately put forth one of the most dominant, impressive, impactful seasons ever for a Twins reliever. Duran lit up the radar gun, blew away opposing hitters, thrived in the highest of leverage, and set new franchise and major-league records with his jaw-dropping velocity.
Perhaps most importantly, Duran remained healthy and strong all year long, with nigh a peep heard regarding elbow or forearm soreness. This inspires hope he can hold up physically in the new role, and so long as he does, it's hard to envision him being anything other than one of the most overpowering late-inning forces in baseball.
6. Bailey Ober, RHP
2022 Ranking: 6
It's no secret that controllable, established major-league pitching is in short supply for the Twins, and also desperately needed in order to fulfill their vision of sustaining contention while completely eschewing the free agent starter market. 
That's essentially why Ober ranked so highly on the list last year, and why he remains in the same spot this year. True, he struggled with a vexing groin injury that limited him to 11 starts and 56 innings, pitching very little while accruing a full year of major-league service. But on the flip side, he took a real step forward performance-wise, building on his strengths (pinpoint control, efficiency, consistent bat-missing ability) while improving on his weaknesses (allowing hits and home runs) to produce legitimate frontline numbers in the small sample: 3.21 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 4.64 K/BB ratio. 
Working in the mid-to-low 90s with his fastball and lacking standout secondary stuff, Ober is no ace, but he's got a sustainable recipe for mid-rotation success with his extension, command, and unique release point. Under control for five seasons, and very cheaply for the next several, the 6-foot-9 righty is a critical and underrated asset for the Twins.

During the Winter Meetings, baseball organizations spent over $2 billion on player contracts Minnesota sat out on that frenzy, but it’s not as though they won’t still dole out dollars. What they do have going for them is a very clear blueprint as to what type of talent is needed.
Last offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a pact with mid-level starter Dylan Bundy, and then picked Chris Archer off the scrap heap late in the offseason. The hope was that they could provide a level of consistency behind the likes of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, effectively making them mediocre veterans. Coming into this year, the Twins have a stable that includes Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and a few others. They don’t need to clog the back of their rotation with 'mediocre' veterans.
The good news is that those types are costly. Taijuan Walker just got four years and $72 million from the Phillies after posting his first sub-4.00 ERA in a full season since 2017. Former Yankees starter Jameson Taillon was given four years and $68 million by the Cubs following his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2018 and having missed the 2020 season. Zach Eflin, despite his 3.57 FIP the past three seasons, has a 4.49 career ERA and the Tampa Bay Rays handed him $40 million over three seasons. The mid-level pitching market has truly gone bananas.
All of those names could certainly be argued as better than both Bundy and Archer, but the reality is that in recent seasons the Twins front office has needed those types just to get to five arms. In being able to avoid that group entirely, the refrain has been an arm at the level of Sonny Gray or better. There are only so many of those types on the free agent market, but a few remain.
There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities. Each of the types Minnesota now need will come with a price tag, but at least they aren’t paying pennies on the dollar for innings rather than performance.
This is a different scenario for Falvey and Levine to navigate. They pulled off the Gray trade prior to Opening Day last offseason, and they swung big for Tyler Mahle at the deadline. Both of those arms advance the overall ability of the starting rotation, and they have a clear picture of the talent level they must acquire.
We have yet to see the Twins pitching pipeline develop something like a number one starter, although Joe Ryan may someday get there. What it has done is provide a considerable amount of depth with respectable floors for a team that has often churned through arms. Knowing how many different starters took the mound a season ago, the reality is that Rocco Baldelli’s club is going to need at least 10 guys capable of throwing something like 50 innings in 2023.
Sure, the Twins have money to spend, but it is a relief to not need to overspend on a veteran that likely won’t move the needle.

Turnover in the Twins front office continued Thursday, as recently-appointed executive chairman Joe Pohlad resigned effective immediately, just three days after accepting the role. No reason was given for his departure. Taking his place will be the next Pohlad in line, 6-year-old Zachary, great-grandson of the late Carl Pohlad.
“Great teams have a next man up mentality, and that applies to all levels of our organization,” said former executive chairman Jim Pohlad. “Zachary has the enthusiasm, engagement, and age-appropriate grasp of math and reading concepts you’d want in a leader.”
Twins CEO Dave St. Peter and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey will both report to Zachary. If they need to reach him during naptime or all-day kindergarten, team sources say Pohlad’s nanny Brigitte will handle all inquiries.
“He likes chewing gum, laughs at bodily function humor, and gets owly when he’s tired,” said a member of the coaching staff who requested anonymity. “That’s, like, half the bullpen. Just another guy we have to remind to wash his hands and limit his screen time. He’ll fit right in.”
Zachary’s teachers at Little Learners Montessori in Deephaven characterize the most powerful person in the Twins organization as “bright, energetic, and super into truck and dinosaurs.”
“That little guy loves Go-Gurts,” confirmed one instructor.
The team said Zachary was in a timeout for not sharing at recess and would address the media at an undetermined future date when he started making better choices.
Image license here.

Emilio Pagán has not only been bad this season for the Minnesota Twins, but has been one of the worst relievers in baseball going on three seasons now. Our friend Aaron Gleeman said it best:
Continuing to trot out Pagán every few days is actively harming the Minnesota Twins. He continues to harm the team and his upside is certainly not high enough to warrant the catastrophic performances we see from him on a weekly basis. Additionally, the Minnesota Twins have plenty of players just 15 minutes away from Target Field who could fill in for Pagán. There’s a great chance that these players would perform better than Pagán, and would give each of them valuable experience with an eye toward sticking in the bullpen for years to come.
These four players are better options for the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen than Emilio Pagán:
Jovani Moran
Jovani Moran should be a familiar name for Minnesota Twins fans as he has been up with the Twins many times this season. In his time with the Twins, Moran has been more than solid, owning a 1.93 ERA in 23 1/3 innings in 2022. Moran is a left-handed pitcher who possesses a nasty changeup that can neutralize right-handers. Moran is certainly a pitcher who has a future in this Twins bullpen and the fact that Emilio Pagán is getting more play than him isn’t right.
Ronny Henriquez
Ronny Henriquez was acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Mitch Garver/Isaiah Kiner-Falefa swap early in the 2022 offseason. Henriquez has not been amazing for the Twins in 2022, owning a 5.90 ERA for the AAA affiliate, but he has been better as of late. In 26 innings since June 21, the right-hander owns a 3.12 ERA with a 29/8 K/BB ratio. What makes Henriquez an intriguing option for the Minnesota Twins bullpen is that he has yet to be tested in a true 1-2 inning bullpen role. Henriquez can get to the upper 90s with his fastball and his pitch repertoire might just be one that thrives in a bullpen role rather than the 4-5 inning stretches that he has been pitching with the Saints this season. Henriquez is currently on the 40-man roster with the Minnesota Twins.
Evan Sisk
The Minnesota Twins acquired Evan Sisk in its trade with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2021 for J.A. Happ. Sisk performed extremely well this season in Wichita and was moved up to the St. Paul Saints where he has continued his great pitching out of the bullpen. In 14 innings with the St. Paul Saints in 2022, Sisk owns a 2.57 ERA with a K/9 of 9.6. Sisk is not currently on the 40-man roster for the Twins so would need to be added if he were to be called up to the big-league club.
Drew Strotman
Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in the Nelson Cruz trade last summer, Drew Strotman struggled mightily as a starting pitcher with the Minnesota Twins in 2021. Coming into 2022, the Twins opted to convert Strotman into a reliever and he continued to struggle in the early months of this season. Over the past month and a half, though, Strotman appears to have turned a corner and become somewhat of a weapon for the St. Paul Saints. Over his last 10 appearances, Strotman has a 1.32 ERA and opponents are hitting just .180 off of him. On the season, Strotman has demonstrated the ability to miss bats, boasting a K/9 in the double digits. 
Control can be an issue for Strotman, but when he’s able to locate his pitches, he can be really solid. Strotman is already on the 40-man roster, so no roster finagling would need to be done with a Strotman call-up. 
Do you agree that these options would be better for the Twins’ bullpen than Emilio Pagán? How would you rank your confidence in these names? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!
 

The return of baseball has been a welcome sight to fans. No, we’re not talking about Major League Baseball (yet), but we are talking about the rest of baseball. College seasons have started, with many northern playing teams having flown south for the spring. High school seasons are getting underway in some parts of the nation, while the Midwest will have to wait - for the most part - until the snow clears up. The season is upon us and there has been plenty happening already.
Carlos Collazo of Baseball America dropped his weekly draft stock watch. Collazo was in Florida for the weekend where he was able to see one of my favorite prospects in this year’s draft, prep outfielder Elijah Green. He followed that up with another piece of rising and popup prospects. 
The Athletic took a very thorough look at shortstop Brooks Lee of Cal Poly. Lee, who many consider that top collegiate bat, would be a welcome sight if he were still available when the Twins come on the clock.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel put out his first draft ranking of the year. As exclusive ESPN+ content, it’s behind a paywall. The story of this draft is in both the prep-hitting class and how many of those top prospects - Druw Jones, Green, Jackson Holliday - are sons of former professional athletes. 
With the return of college baseball, the dudes over at Fangraphs posted their first-weekend update. 
The Twins are set to pick eighth, so I’ll leave you each week with my Top 8 Prospects. At this point, it is a baseline only based on who I like and less on anything else. As the draft approaches, I’ll try to make this reflect how I think the Twins will stack their board with some explanation.
1) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit)
2) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
3) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit)
4) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 
5) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU
6) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 
7) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech
8.) Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison
MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS
Baseball America - v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 100 (1/17/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21)  Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/24/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
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As much as I’d be a proponent for Gordon seeing continued reps in the role, there’s reason to believe it could be recently signed Daniel Robertson. While former first-round pick Tim Beckham is the more prominent name of Minnesota’s minor league contracts signed of late, Robertson is younger and could make more sense.
 
Last season Robertson played in 50 games for the Milwaukee Brewers. It was his worst season as a big leaguer, and he posted just a .164/.303/.274 (.577) slash line. Robertson has never hit for power, with nine longballs being his most in a season coming back in 2018. Like Beckham, Robertson made his debut with the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s played six different positions in a single season and can play shortstop.
Similar to Beckham, Robertson is stretched defensively almost everywhere. The utility aspect allows him to fill in anywhere, but his glove isn’t likely to be the first option anywhere. The 816 innings at second base would qualify for his greatest at any position, and he’s compiled a -1 DRS in that time.
 
Unlike Beckham, Robertson has some strong plate discipline skills. Even with the ugly .164 average last season, he still reached base at a .303 clip. That’s mainly due to a chase rate of just 25% and a career whiff rate under 10%. Robertson’s hard-hit rate is not impressive, and he puts the ball on the ground a ton, but the ability to make contact could be something the Twins opt for off the bench.
 
In an interesting comp for Robertson, Baseball Savant has former Twins backstop Chris Gimenez (during the 2017 season) as a similar batter. That year, Gimenez posted a .731 OPS being a low average but high on-base guy. Gimenez also played a more premium position but contributed as a veteran across 74 games. That Twins squad won 85 games and would seem comparable to the current group, depending on how pitching works out.
 
Personally, the inclusion of either Robertson or Beckham on the Opening Day roster would be less than ideal. Gordon likely presents at least the same amount of utility, and I think his speed should be a differentiating factor. That said, Minnesota will go lighter somewhere on the roster to accommodate the pitching needs, and the last bench spot certainly isn’t a bad place to do it.
 
What do you think? Is Daniel Robertson on the Twins Opening Day roster? Does Tim Beckham get that look? Maybe Nick Gordon keeps his role from 2020?
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Bill Smith was in a no-win situation. After taking the reins as the Twins GM, Torii Hunter left via free agency, and he faced trading away baseball’s best pitcher. Rumors swirled about potential prospect packages from the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets. Eventually, the Twins settled on a package that included Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber.

Gomez had the longest Twins career, but the club traded him to Milwaukee, where he made back-to-back All-Star appearances. He played his final game in 2019. Humber pitched just over 20 innings in Minnesota, but his most significant mark on baseball was pitching the 21st perfect game in MLB history. His final big-league pitch came in 2013. Mulvey pitched fewer than 30 big-league innings and only appeared in two Twins games. He is about to start his sixth season as the head coach at Villanova. That leaves one man standing.

Like many pitching prospects, Guerra didn’t follow a linear development path. He pitched his first two professional seasons in the Mets organization, where they were aggressive with his level. Baseball America ranked him as baseball’s 35th best prospect at the time of the trade, while Baseball Prospectus had him ranked 79th. Of course, he had yet to throw an inning above High-A, but evaluators considered him one of the game’s best pitching prospects. 

Guerra pitched seven seasons in the Twins organization but never got the call to the big league level. He switched to a bullpen role in 2011 after posting an ERA north of 6.00 during the 2010 season. His strikeout numbers improved with the switch, but he still allowed too many runs and gave up too much hard contact. Following the 2013 season, he left the Twins organization and went on quite the professional journey.  

Pittsburgh signed him for 2015, and he made his big-league debut. Unfortunately, he allowed five home runs in 16 2/3 innings, but he struck out more than a batter per inning. The following winter, he re-signed with the Pirates on December 7, and three days later, the Angels selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. Los Angeles had to keep him on the big-league roster for the 2016 season, and he got his first extended look in his age-27 season. In 53 1/3 innings, he compiled a 3.21 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 36-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio. 
From 2017 to 2020, he bounced around from Los Angeles to Texas to Milwaukee to Philadelphia. During those stops, he made 29 appearances and had a 6.55 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP. He had posted some substantial numbers in the high levels of the minors, but those numbers weren’t translating to the big-league level. Entering his age-32 season, it looked like his career might be coming to a close. 

Oakland gave Guerra one last chance, and he slid into their bullpen for the entire 2021 season. He posted a 4.11 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP across 65 2/3 innings. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story as he ranked in the 85th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit %, wxOBA, xERA, and xBA. Even without eye-popping strikeout numbers, batters cannot make solid contact against his offspeed offerings. In fact, only his four-seam fastball allowed a batting average over .245 and a slugging percentage over .392. He uses five pitches out of the bullpen, which is a rarity in today’s game. 
Oakland kept Guerra on their 40-man roster this winter, so it looks like he may be part of the team’s plans for the 2022 campaign. Either way, his journey to this point in his career is one of determination and resilience. He’s the last piece of the Johan Santana trade, and he still has something to prove. 

What do you remember about the Santana trade? Did you think players tied to the trade would still be playing? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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A 7th round pick in 2018, Josh Winder didn’t break into professional baseball at the top of Twins prospect lists. It would be understandable, in fact, if you hadn’t even heard his name until he really raised some eyebrows last spring.
Winder reportedly made a lot of good progress during the canceled 2020 Minor League season, but it’s entirely possible he would have debuted long ago without the interruption. After totaling just under 40 innings pitched in his debut 2018 season, he topped 125 innings in 2019 at Cedar Rapids with decent strikeout numbers as well as an impressive avoidance of walks and home runs in A ball.
2021 showed Winder was far from what you’d expect out of a 7th round draft pick. In 54 innings at AA his strikeout rate eclipsed 31%. He walked under 5% of his batters faced and posted a 0.82 HR/9. His ERA was under 2.
Upon his promotion to AAA, his strikeouts dropped a bit and home runs increased dramatically in a small sample before his season was cut short with shoulder fatigue. It was a disappointing end to 2021, especially for those hoping to see the 6’5 right-hander at Target Field by season’s end. Still, Winder showed enough to keep your eye on him in 2022.
Winder has built up his prospect status since his selection in the draft. Scouts give him a 55 future grade fastball with 50 grades for his slider, curveball, and changeup. His pitch mix shows a lot of promise when it comes to sticking in a rotation. He may not have quite the fastball command of Joe Ryan, but the depth of his pitches doesn’t make future bullpen arm concerns quite as obvious.
In regards to pitch mix, Winder matches up quite well with Bailey Ober who is deservedly receiving quite a bit of buzz headed into 2022. Winder has a superior fastball and slider, while Ober has a plus changeup and impeccable command as Twins fans saw in his 92 innings pitched last season.
Where Winder undoubtedly bests Ober, however, is his past body of work. The 125 innings in his second professional season were very encouraging. It’s a benchmark that Ober has yet to reach after throwing a career-high 108 innings in 2022 across AAA and the majors. Winder’s season-ending shoulder fatigue was likely just a result of so many innings after a year off, and his injury/durability concerns moving forward shouldn’t be as significant as Ober’s who’s dealt with his fair share of injuries already throughout his career.
Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober get a lot of love from Twins Territory, and rightfully so. There isn’t much substitution for watching a young arm succeed at the Major League level. It is important to remember that we were right on the edge of Josh Winder possibly being in the same conversation. For as good as Ryan and Ober might be, one could argue that Winder could be the more well-rounded of the trio when it comes to a future in an MLB rotation.
I’d put my money on Winder spending Opening Day in St. Paul. That being said, depending on how the Twins address the rest of the rotation it’s not impossible that Winder could win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. He’s the next man up when it comes to the Falvine pitching pipeline, and we likely won’t have to wait too long to see him in Minneapolis. 
He may not receive the attention of the Chase Pettys of the world, but Winder deserves a lot of credit for his meteoric rise from being a 7th round pick where even decent Minor League careers are far from the norm. Regardless of how the season goes, 2022 will be a fun year when it comes to the pitching pipeline. Expect to see Josh Winder as the first of many to stake their claim in the Twins future rotation.
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