Three thoughts:
1. If he gets, say, 180 hits a year for four more years, and at least one well-deserved Golden Glove, those would help.
2. Unfortunately, post-season success (as opposed to mere appearances) has a weight as it increases national exposure. Perhaps his next contract will be with a quant based (that is, one that values OBP) perpetual playoff team.
3. How does he compare with Gary "Worst Perm Ever" Carter?
My best guess? Maybe a third ballot.