
Tomj14
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Everything posted by Tomj14
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Funny we are talking about giving a starting pitcher that started 30 games and didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title 19 million dollars. "carried the pitching staff during September"? He pitched less than 2 more innings than with a higher ERA than Dobnak. He pitched about 10 less innings than Berrios, yes Berrios had a higher ERA but what would his ERA if he pitched 10 more innings? If the Twins are going to give him 19 million, what is Berrios going to ask for? Also if you are Cole and you see Odo get 19 million aren't you thinking you are worth close to double that? (just in September he pitched 42 innings and gave up 5 earned runs in 6 games.
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I think there is a big difference between 15 - 19. I am fine with bringing Odo back, but he is who he is, a 5 inning pitcher, and if the front office really understands that and realize a team with a bunch of 5 inning starters needs a damn good bullpen and stock and spend wisely on that as well that can work. But if they think going 5 innings and bringing 4 guys for 1 inning every night is going to work, they are probably wrong unless they plan on doing the shuttle to triple AAA all year and have room for an extra few relief pitchers with options on the 40 man.
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you're absolutely correct, you asked "What three relief pitchers that have had good seasons in EACH of the last two seasons are free agents?" It was my bad to assume you meant three pitchers that have good seasons in EACH of the last two years that will sign for 5 - 6 mil per year, I have no idea how I could have missed that in your post. I could have said Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen,Yusmeiro Petit are three relief pitchers that have been pretty good and would more than likely cost less than Odo. But then I probably would have missed that you were really asking for 3 relief pitchers that were good the last two years, that will accept the money and be smart for the Twins to sign. Not my job to figure that out, that is for the high priced front office employees, I was suggesting they probably could get three guys (that average about 5 - 6 mi a year) for that cost to coverage more games and innings.
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Will Smith, Will Harris, Steve Cishek, and a few others. There are also others that may not have been great last year but have been pretty good in the past. Also getting relief pitchers aren't only acquired in FA. My point really was I think 19 million could be better budgeted then on a pitcher that pitches one out of five games and only give you 5 innings in that game. I will say this, if they told Odo we will give you a QO, the expectation is that you average at least 6 innings and we don't care how many pitches it takes to get there. I would back that. Maybe him only pitching 5 innings isn't on him, I mean they only let him get to 100 pitches 9 times. Maybe that is on Rocco or the front office and if that is case, that completely justifies not giving him that type of money.
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I understand the days are gone of going 6, what I am saying is the smart teams are going to figure out you don't pay Odo 19 million a year to go 5 innings and leave the rest of the game up to rookies, has beens and never will be's. I assume they are paying good money to analysts to figure out what the right price is to pay for an inning of pitching, then figure out how to fill those innings in a budget. And paying Odo 118K an inning is probably not the best money spent. And if they aren't paying somebody this I have back ground in Data and will happily accept the job.
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I have be believe smart teams will not pay Odorizzi 15 million plus for more than 3 years. Once in his 6 year career has he average more than 5 2/3 of an inning. And his two with the Twin he has average less than 5 1/3. How can you justify spending that much when on average he is only going to pitch about half the game. It seems like a better idea to go out and get 3 relief pitchers at 5 - 6 million a piece and for about the same price you get more innings and pitchers that pitch more than once every 5 days.
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Actually the game was 1 - 0 when Duffey came into pitch on Saturday. He gave up a Sac fly, single, hit a batter than a grand slam and boom 7- 0. So depending on how tonight goes, the Twins could finish a playoff series and never use arguably their pitcher. But they did use Littell, Stashak and Duffey twice in a 1 run game.
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If that is the case he should never have started him. Or started him and gave him 1 or 2 innings only. If you send out a rookie (or even a young guy) and tell him this is your game, you must be almost perfect or we will pull you at the first sign of trouble, these are the kind of results you end up with most of the time.
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Can some one please explain if they think Thorpe should start or even be on the playoff rosterwhat are the expectations from him? He has pitched in 10 games in the majors and only once didn't give up a run. For me it would be hoping to get though 3 innings only giving up two runs. I like Thorpe and think he has a bright future, but the biggest game of his life he walked 4 and gave up 7 hits in 3 2/3 against Cleveland. Dobnak and Smetlzer have both been better at this point. Sadly the front office left the team short of quality starters pitchers but not going out and getting somebody else.
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Front Page: The Future Value of Luis Arraez
Tomj14 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pat Mears played 8 years and had less than 5 total WAR, if he ends up as Pat Mears I think that would be considered a disappoint after this year, now going into the year I think most would have said that would be great. Also the some want to extend him right away, that would be a huge mistake if he ends up as Mears. But yes he doesn't have to be awesome to be valuable. -
Front Page: The Future Value of Luis Arraez
Tomj14 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have harped on the front office, but I think that is one of the strengths, playing players at different spots in certain games so they don't get exposed defensively. I think if they put Arraez out in left field for 140 games people would have a much different option of him then putting him out there when a certain pitcher is pitching or against a certain team. (Grossman didn't look that bad either in the outfield in spot starts) -
Front Page: The Future Value of Luis Arraez
Tomj14 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just went over the list again, they have him as the 5th or 6th or 7th (if you include Senzel and Chavis) at 2B in the list with 3 of them being in the American league. It might be much harder than I initially thought of him making the all star team with Altuve and Torres as well. -
Front Page: The Future Value of Luis Arraez
Tomj14 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
lets not get too far ahead of ourselves, Mauer was 23 (kind of cool their birthdays are 10 days apart) when he was an all star, won a batting title and was 6th in the MVP voting and Altuve was an all start at age 22. (both were better base runners and had a bit more power) With that being said I think he has a chance for a batting title or two and maybe a couple of all star games, I don't think his future is yearly all star games because he doesn't hit the homers everybody loves, but a really high batting average could sneak him into a couple. If he doesn't keep a high batting average and on base percentage he could become a liability, but it looks like the Twins have a low cost starter for a few years to come. -
Front Page: The Future Value of Luis Arraez
Tomj14 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You want to make the Gonzo signing look terrible, stick him at first for 140 games. He is a great super utility player, but playing him at one position for a whole season unless forced to by injury is a huge mistake. On Arraez, I love watching him play and probably even more importantly to me my son loves watching him. IMO the plan should be for him to be the starting 2B next year, but also to have some plan in place for a replacement in case he is hitting .250 and the walks go down, and I hope the plan isn't just Gordon because odds of hit stepping up right away are low. -
IMO, that game eliminated Perez from the playoff roster, if Rocco can't trust him to get one out in the 5th against the white sox with a two run lead, how can he trust him to get any outs against a playoff team? I am not a Perez fan, but it seemed like the first time ever (I am sure it wasn't) that he was trying to be economical with his pitches, he only had 64 pitches in 4 2/3 innings. The hits he was giving up in the 5th were not pounded besides Engel. (Garcia rolled it though the shift on the right side, Abreu hit a bloop to right on a really good pitch low and away, and Moncada hit a single to right. Kind of a double edge sword for the starters, run up your pitch count and get pulled early or try to keep the pitch count down by throwing strikes and giving up some hits and get pulled early, it is no wonder why Ordo and Gibson nibble all the time.
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- twins vs white sox
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Front Page: Is It Time for a New Bullpen Paradigm?
Tomj14 replied to Patrick Wozniak's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
On TV the other day (I think Morris) said he talked to Romo and Romo said he told the other relief pitchers not to waste all their bullets in the bullpen, they get 8 warm up pitches. (seems like good advice)- 25 replies
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- taylor rogers
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Front Page: Is It Time for a New Bullpen Paradigm?
Tomj14 replied to Patrick Wozniak's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree there really aren't any pitchers that can average 7 innings a start only being allowed 90-100 pitches. To pitch 7 innings and have 105 pitches you need to average 15 pitches an inning. When pitchers like Ordo and Gibson (and a ton of others in the league) get to 0 -2 and it takes 3 or 4 more pitches to get the guy out, that isn't happening. On top of these pitchers (IMO) feel like anytime after the 5th if they get into even a little jam they will be taken out, so they nit pick and run up their pitch count. In the past if a pitcher got somebody 0 - 2 they didn't have to waste close pitches because the batter was in a protect mode, now they batter doesn't care what the count is they are freely swing for the fences.- 25 replies
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- taylor rogers
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I was trying to be fair to the front office giving them credit for the guys they brought in and for putting guys they inherited into potions to succeed. They brought in the guys you mentioned that have done well. But don't forget they brought in Morrison, Lynn, Reed, Belisle, Kinley, Austin, and others. Also if you want to give them credit for players doing better, don't you have to give them credit for players that haven't done better, or the implosion of the starting pitchers in the second half? Finally you asked - "That's minimal to you?" and my answer is absolutely, IMO besides Cruz and Gonzalez that is the definition of minimal. I love what they have done with Littell (and they should be given tons of credit for getting him and moving him to the pen), I really liked getting Dyson and Romo (both guys I think they should have gotten weeks earlier even if it meant paying more) but when you have one of the greatest offensives ever in the game they needed to shore up the starting pitching. As of right now it looks like Berrios game 1 and bullpen games for the next 3 or 4 starts. (sure Odorizzi will probably start game 2, but if they or anybody are expecting more than 5 innings will that is terrible planning) Does anybody feel comfortable with Gibson or Perez starting against a good lineup right now?
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True they didn't inherit a good your team, they inherited a young team (organization) with a ton of talent. They minimally surround that talent with some good signings and a some good trades. They have also did a great job of keeping the minor leagues filled with talent. And I agree if you do or don't give them credit for improvement you can't or shouldn't blame them for failures.
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We aren't really giving them credit for two time minor league hitter of the year (Garver) or developing Polanco, Arraez or Kepler are we. We could give them credit for lineup placement or even playing them but developing them? Yes they acquired Pineda for 146 innings and was suspended for PED's. Dyson (who I wanted) has been hurt and has an ERA over 7.00, Romo has been good but also has an ERA higher than May. They can IMO be given credit for Duffey and Littell, but lets not forget about Parker, Romero, and a host of others that haven't gone so well.
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No how, now way would "I" pay Odorizzi 18 million a year to pitch an average of 5 innings a game. that basically means you need 3 to 4 pitchers more pitchers every game he pitches. (and yes I get that is what happens with most pitchers, but not at 18 million a year) I was completely against the starter strategy or stacker but I think that is the only solution for the Twins, basically nobody in the minors throws more than 5 innings so to expect them to throw more in the majors is a joke. if they aren't going to sign Strasburg or Madison or pitchers that average at least 6 innings a game, then they should go out and get as many pitchers as possible that have options and just run them up and down all season and spend their money on out slugging the other teams.
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