nicksaviking

This post is wrongly attributed to nicksaviking. He did not write this post so stop throwing rocks at him, everybody. A report has surfaced over the past week indicating that the Cincinnati Reds are exploring trading outfielder Jay Bruce if the right deal were to surface. With the Hot Stove season inching closer with each passing day, it should come as no surprise that trade rumors are floating at increasingly a rapid rate. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins have yet to be linked to any big name free agents or potential trade candidates. This should not come as a surprise to most Twins fans as Terry Ryan and the front office have given little indication that they are willing to go out and add any pieces to improve this team, beyond a posssible Black Friday special on the free agent heap toward the end of winter.The Reds are in a precarious position after a disappointing 2014 season that saw them finish 76-86, their worst season since 2008. Injuries could be pointed to as a reason for their ineffectiveness and failure to live up to expectations, but that is an excuse used for many teams across baseball each and every season. Whatever the reason, if the Reds are hoping to turn the tide and return to contention for the 2015 season, they will need players like Bruce to lead the turnaround. The fact that he is potentially being shopped makes little sense on the surface. In his career, Bruce has hit .251 with a .790 OPS, 182 home runs and 551 RBI. His best season was 2013 when he hit .262 with 30 HR and 109 RBI. Acquiring Bruce will not be easy and it will not come cheaply. However, looking more deeply at the situation in Cincinnati, one might be able to understand the spot the Reds are potentially facing and be able to comprehend the rationale of trading one of their most dynamic offensive weapons who is entering the prime of his career. According to Sports Illustrated, the Reds are facing an unsettled situation after next season in regard to bringing back the majority of their 2014 starting rotation. Last season, the Reds signed Homer Bailey to a long-term contract. Outside of Bailey, the other four pitchers in the starting rotation—Johnny Cueto, Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos and Mike Leake—aren't signed past next season, nor is closer Aroldis Chapman. For a team hoping to remain in contention within a division that boasts the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, and the rapidly improving Chicago Cubs, having a solidified starting rotation and quality depth at the position is something of a necessity. The Reds boasted one of the best starting staffs in all of baseball last season and though their 3.60 team ERA ranked in the middle of the NL, Reds pitchers held opposing batters to a league-best .239 average. Those numbers were largely credited to the starting rotation, whose collective 3.37 ERA ranked third in the NL. Needless to say, the reason the Reds were competitive had a lot to do with their quality starting pitching. If they wish to remain competitive, it will be via starting pitching and an offense centered around Joey Votto. The window for playoff contention may be closing if the team fails to keep this staff intact, so trading a player like Bruce may be a way to free up payroll and also improve the team in other areas of weakness. This is where the Twins come in. No, I have not started putting down the eggnog quite yet and yes, I am of stable mind when I stand behind this thought: The Twins should, can, and need to cash in on some of their young talent in order to acquire an established player this offseason. If there is one thing we know, it is that the Twins’ biggest area of weakness is their starting pitching and, to some extent, portions of their bullpen. So why would the Twins want to invest in an area that is in less dire straits than their starting pitching? Because they have enough assets to do so and a move like this would significantly improve a lineup, and an outfield, that drastically needs it. Not to mention, a blockbuster trade like this would create a necessary buzz around the team that would hopefully keep dangling fans interested and buying tickets. In addition, the Twins have a general manager who is willing to take a risk when it comes to adding talent. The main questions that Ryan and his staff must ask themselves, and what many fans reading this article are probably wondering is: What would it take to bring in Bruce and is he worth the price? Reports out of Cincinnati indicate that the team is looking to add a left fielder and pitching depth to their rotation and bullpen. If they were to trade Bruce, they’d also have a vacancy in right field as, so that must also be factored into any potential equation. If I were in Ryan’s seat, I would begin the discussion by offering a package of Phil Hughes, Aaron Hicks, and someone from the duo of Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone. I know many fans may scoff at trading Hughes after his brilliant 2014 campaign, but his track record does not offer a lot of stability and if the Twins are serious about acquiring a talent like Bruce, it will likely cost them one of their best arms. In Hughes’ case, why not sell high on a pitcher with an unpredictable future? He seems like exactly the type of pitcher the Reds would be looking to add to their already solid rotation and he would come with two years remaining on his deal and a payroll-friendly contract. Hicks has enough potential that the Reds may view him as a reclamation project and could plug him into an outfield spot with many years of control left at a cheap price. The inclusion of Nolasco would be a bit more difficult due to his poor 2014 season and the approximately $36 million left on his deal. But, like Hicks, the Reds could view Nolasco as a reclamation project with a solid track record in the National League who could be had at a reasonable price. Another potential deal I believe the Reds might strongly consider would revolve around Brian Dozier. I’d be willing to part with Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks straight up for Bruce because he has the talent to transform a lineup and is signed through 2016 with a team option for 2017 to a payroll-friendly deal. There is no guarantee that Dozier will continue to perform at the level he had this past season and his value may be at its height. Also, he is due a hefty pay raise in the coming years and with suitable replacements potentially coming up through the minors (Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario), the Twins could use this as a perfect opportunity to flip Dozier for maximum value. A package of Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks could even fetch a lower level minor leaguer or two in the deal, but Bruce would be the centerpiece for any such deal. In addition, the Reds have been rumored to be shopping Brandon Phillips over the past few seasons and could be looking for his long-term replacement in the near future, which would make Dozier the ideal fit in this deal. So why do I believe this would be a great deal for the Twins and their future? For one, in either deal that I have presented, the Twins would not be sacrificing any of their prized prospects such as Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, J.O Berrios, Kennys Vargas, etc. Whether or not the Reds would be willing to trade Bruce without the inclusion of at least one of those prospects remains to be seen, but there is no guarantee that any of these players will ever live up to the hype that has been bestowed upon them throughout their minor league careers. With that in mind, why not trade for a proven commodity who is entering the prime of his career? If these stud prospects are kept, Bruce would be a cornerstone in place when the majority of these players make it to the majors. This may be one of the only times that the Twins have enough assets to get a player of his caliber without sacrificing numerous talented prospects. With Bruce in the fold, the Twins could trot out a lineup that looks like this as early as next season: 1. Danny Santana SS 2. Joe Mauer 1B 3. Kennys Vargas DH 4. Jay Bruce RF 5. Miguel Sano 3B 6. Oswaldo Arcia LF 7. Trevor Plouffe/Eduardo Escobar/Nunez 2B 8. Kurt Suzuki C 9. Eddie Rosario/Jordan Shafer CF And still have a pitching rotation of (in no particular order): 1. Kyle Gibson 2. Trevor May 3. Alex Meyer 4. Nolasco/Millone/Pelfrey 5. Free Agent starter (Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson, etc.) Under this scenario, the Twins still will be waiting on Buxton, Berrios, etc. to be making their way to the majors. Much like the Twins of the early 2000s, the time has come where if the Twins are unwilling to spend money via free agency to bring in top-flight pitchers and if they are confident in the prospects that they have coming up, they should bring up the young pitchers (with a few veterans thrown in) and grow with them as they learn to pitch at the big league level. The Twins will then have the best evaluation information as to what they truly have with these kids and it will allow the front office to take the next step into turning this franchise around as the youngsters gain experience and learn from their mistakes. Maybe the prospects crash and burn when they get to the majors and the team is back to losing 100 games again every season. At this point, who really knows for sure? At the same time, if the Twins were to begin losing 100 plus games every year because of the youth movement, they’d at least be doing it with players who are young and hopefully improving instead of cheap veterans who are on the last legs of their career. Trading for Bruce would not solve the Twins problems overnight. If anything, it would likely make the situation worse in the short-term. However, if the Twins are ever again to become a serious contender in this league it will rest on the arms of their young starting pitching that is developing in the minors and the bats of a productive lineup that can provide the starters with run support. Bruce improves the potential of any future Twins lineup immensely upon arrival and gives new coach Paul Molitor a masher who can anchor the lineup while the youngsters develop and provide stability at a position of great current concern. All that is needed now is for management to be willing to step outside their comfort zone and take a risk by making a blockbuster deal. Until then, we sit and wait as the Hot Stove adds one more coal to the fire. Click here to view the article

Perhaps the bids were the same and they're trying to sort out how to go about solving that issue.

Well to be fair, usually we hear who won the bid long before the bid is accepted, even if the selling club isn't required to disclose this information. No surprise this situation is more covert seeing as the Twins are involved.

I don't get the impression that Molitor is the type of guy who needs his hand held by a "mentor" type guy. He seems more like the kind of guy who would cut off said hand with a lightsaber and confidently tell the other guy, "No, I am YOUR father!" I for one have no problems with a novice (sort of) coaching staff. I would be just fine if there wasn't someone always telling the rest how things need to be done because that's how they've always been done.

Pretty cheap. Twins may have just thrown out a low ball offer never thinking it would win. Anyway, if the KBO ERA is a concern, it was still lower than Albers, so he must be better than the Canadian! Cheaper too, at least the posting fee portion.

It could mean small ball parks or small strike zone. Or maybe that's where all the old aluminum bats from the NCAA went after they became illegal.

The troubling thing is that this seems to be the theme with nearly every prospect the Twins have called up in the last year, and will be the same for almost all of them called up in the near future.

It should have been the strategy in 2011-13. Pelfrey and Harden were both good lotto tickets, the Twins just made the mistake of doubling (tripling) down on Pelfrey. Why would we want to sign more guys for 2-3 years now though? We don't need 2-3 year bridges, we need 1 year bridges, maybe two month bridges. The prospects might not pan out, but we at least have to find out. Pitchers on guaranteed multi year deals aren't going to get benched or released. Pitchers on one year deals may though. Which pitchers would you even need to offer 3 year deals to anyway? Jason Hammel, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy and Edinson Volquez look like the only guys who might demand three but won't be able to get more. Not much there I want.

Well Cleveland got a pretty good prospect for him despite his down season. If he's looking for a make good deal, I'd love to take the chance that the Twins get an improved performance and get an even better return for him mid-season.

Good stuff Parker. I like Masterson, largely based on the belief that he'll get a short term deal. I love ceiling and could care less about floor as should the Twins considering there is some credible pitching depth in May, Meyer, Milone, Gilmartin, et al.

Not to mention that if he didn't have the injury concerns, he likely would cost more than the Twins would be willing to pay.

Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Gilmartin, Michael, Wheeler and they'll surprise us with one, I'll say Tyler Jones. Thompson, Fryer, Herrmann and Colabello lose their spots.

Jerry Crasnick says Masterson is finding a very active market for his services. https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/534361908334587905 Mark Polishuk at MLBTR extrapolates a bit about the known suitors: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/multiple-teams-interested-in-justin-masterson.html My favorite line: "The six teams Crasnick lists present an interesting array of suitors, incorporating the two pennant winners, three teams looking to return to contention in 2015 and the rebuilding Twins..." For the record, one of the "three teams looking to return to contention in 2015" is the Cubs. The Twins can't even keep company with the Cubs these days!

Well the assumption is that Masterson will only get/request a 1-year deal. That says two things. First, Ryan has had no problem cutting bait on players on the final year of their deals, so if he stinks, I don't think he'll block anyone, he'll go to the pen, get released or traded. Second, it says that Masterson and his camp don't believe his damage is irreversable. A truely damaged goods pitcher would probably take even a low AAV in exchange for multiple years. Otherwise I agree with you. I don't want any more back of the rotation, multi-year contracts blocking May or Meyer.

I like Masterson, as I'm a "high ceiling, I don't give a damn about the floor" kind of guy. I actually think Hunter may have been a good sign the previous years under Gardy. There seemed to be a leadership void, and I would have taken him just for his clubhouse presence. Some may argue that his leadership skills tend toward the selfish side, but hey, Hitler sure as hell made a fine army out of those Germans. I don't think there is as much of a leadership void now though. Dozier seems to have taken the reigns and who knows what the dynamic will be with a new manager. I liked seeing the young Latin players at the top of the dugout most of the games, I think Vargas, Santana and/or Arcia may turn into a field general. I hope it's not Rommel, but he did get results.

No need to get antsy, I'm sure the Twins are considering bringing back Tyner.

It's safe to say the Royals are one of the "unlikely" teams that are going after Tomas. They are currently working him out at a number of positions. After they beat the A's in the play-in game I said I was torn. I wanted to cheer for the underdog, but I was also jealous that a team that has historically been a doormat was going to put my favorite team's futility in an even brighter light. If they gave out a large contract to an external player, that light would shine even brighter.

How about a Delmon?

If Tomas and the rest of the Cubans that follow turn out to not be as good as their predecessors, then the Twins need to look themselves in the mirror and finally decide they can no longer afford to follow trends but instead create them. At minimum, Oakland was instrumental in these transactions, there should be nothing Oakland can do that the Twins cannot unless resistance to innovation is insurmountable.

It would be great it he developed like Brady Anderson, however in today's MLB, that production would be accompanied by an ensuing 50 game suspension. Schafer looks an awful lot like Alex Presley to me.

Well that's not the majority of the scouts. Abreu wasn't supposed to be anywhere near the hitter than Puig was and Puig wasn't supposed to have talent anywhere near what Cespedes had. It's all a leap of faith at this point. Someone's going to have mud on their face eventually with these Cubans, and with the Twins luck, it will be them if they finally take the plunge, but so far, the success rate of these guys is leaps and bounds ahead of every other means of procuring talent.

Tim Dierkes Tweeted that Yasmany Thomas is meeting with four teams and that three of those teams would typically be considered "very unlikely" to sign him. https://twitter.com/timdierkes/status/533010714697666560 Logic would say that the fourth team, or the non-unlikely suitor will win out, but I say it's time to get our hopes up unreasonably high and open ourselves up to the possibility that he's coming to Minnesota. Screw our internal defense mechanisms built to protect us from crushed dreams! Let's get the rampant speculation machine rolling!

Who's got the most trade value in July? That's who I want on a 1-2 year deal. And I don't want to sign anyone to platoon with Schaffer. If you can't find someone who can push Schaffer to the 4th OF spot completely, you might as well stay out of free agency all together.

Great stuff Parker, I'll bet this one gets picked up by national sites that enjoy knowledgable baseball analysis. This kind of research shows why analytics are important. Not so much because of the data they produce, but more so to demonstrate that traditional long-standing philosophies are not always accurate or no longer accurate. This game is always evolving, every assumption made earlier than a week ago should be re-evaluated.

Yeah, well people here last year were saying the same thing when the Twins would have virtuallly been trading Nick Burdi for a washed up and useless Stephen Drew.