nicksaviking

I wasn't sure about how he would adapt to US culture and the nature of American interviews, but I guess Crash Davis taught him well: "I was seeing the ball well," Kepler said. "I'm getting my knocks and doing what I can." The must have left out: "I just wanta give it my best shot and, Good Lord willing, things'll work out." I wonder if a good AFL might make some of the scouting wonks re-consider him for top 100 lists.

I disliked John Moses and did so vehemently. Mostly it was unfounded as it was because he simply replaced Tom Brunansky in RF when Bruno was traded for the human puddle of vomit. Side note, I also disliked the human puddle of vomit. I loved Bruno and no one was going to replace him, I would have felt better if the team had run only eight defenders out each inning and just asked Puckett and Gladden to cover the entire outfield. I did enjoy one thing about Moses; he was the first position player that I remember coming in to pitch in a blowout. It wasn't a new practice but it was novel to me. The Twins actually asked him to pitch three times, though Cuddyer, Butera and Carroll laugh at his 9.00 career ERA.

"Early returns have the parade starting in 2015." Which early returns? Are you talking about the success of the youngsters that are supposed to help bring this team back to contention, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson and Parmelee. Something is broken and it needs to be fixed. I think it is complacency, time to clean house. Do some people deserve to get the boot? Probably not but they are supposed to be in the business of winning so if it is not clear which part is broken, why not replace it all? Your post is one long contradiction. He's only been back in charge for 21 months so we need to show patience yet you for some reason assume to know his goal, which you state is to avoid a long rebuild. How do you come to that conclusion? Especially when you are also preaching patience?

I'd like to see them a little more active also, though to be fair, they did get Jose Berrios and Luke Bard in exchange for losing Cuddyer and Kubel. They probably could have gotten better than Bard for Kubel, but Berrios for Cuddyer isn't a bad swap. That system is long gone though so a more active trade deadline is probably more justified.

This is MLB not the NFL, I don't think championship rings mean a whole lot to the voters, but even if they do, he's on a contending team now. I've made this arguement before, I think Nathan will end up getting in after some Blylevenian wait and SABR debate. I think he'll get in due to his dominance during his peak years. Considering the innings pitched, closers generally don't produce a ton of WAR. I know, WAR sucks, blah blah, but considering how few variables there are for a closer, it actually matches up well for this position. A 2.0 WAR is a pretty good season for a closer. Joe Nathan is in the middle of what looks to be his 6th 2.8 WAR season. Mariano Rivera is far and away the best closer ever, but HOF'ers Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersly have a total of four 2.8 WAR years. Combined. Trevor Hoffman only had 3. The aforementioned Billy Wagner had 3. Other contemporary top closers Jonathan Paplebon, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde have six years with a 2.8 WAR. Combined. This of course this isn't an end all be all arguement but I think it shows how much more dominant Nathan was than his contemporaries save Rivera. He'll likely still need to pitch well a couple more years to pad his stats, as HOF voters like traditional stats too, but only 14 more saves from the top 10 is a big number. I think 72 more saves to get to 400 would be hard to argue against and barring a complete nose dive in 2014, I think he's a shoe in to get there in 2015. 4th all time in saves is well within the realm of possibility.

Great interview, regardless of if these two make it or not, we should be seeing them in the system for a long time barring trade. They both seem to be good enough ballplayers for the orgainzation to give long leashes. I like that Melotakis acknowledges that he needs to continue to work on the change up and I'm not surprised he said they are starting from scratch with that pitch but I'm a little surprised they are doing so with the slider. I'd think that would be a big reason why his K numbers are down. Rebuilding two pitches has to be pretty tough at this point yet he's still pitching well enough. I'd imagine if the changeup develops those K numbers will rise quite a bit. Hicks is my adopt a prospect and after the draft I took him last year too. I remember looking at the college numbers and thinking, wow, this dude is not a 17th round pick, especially in a day and age of profession baseball where the strikeout is not nearly the stigma it once was.

Great write up. I don't know why I didn't read the previous ones but I will certainly go back and check them out now. Trading up for Verlander sounds like an awesome idea, but it would have required the Twins to open up the wallet. San Deigo drafted Bush over Verlander surely because they weren't going to pay Verlander's price tag. The Twins always were in the same boat as the Padres, they too were known to avoid paying large draft signing bonuses back in the day when that was more relevant. Besides, Ryan has always seemed to prefer the rare quantity over quality approach.

Well sure, but does anyone actually have faith that the Twins have this ability? Tampa drafts hard throwers and molds them into hard thowing pitchers who are able to man the front of a rotation. The Twins haven't shown this ability. Ever. Hopefully Berrios and Gibson are the first in a long line of exceptions but that remains to be seen. Though they have little practice at it, I do have faith that the Twins know how to write a check. Everytime I go to the grocery store I seem to end up behind two little old ladies who are able to manage this feat.

I think the short term solution is just to give Doumit regular bench duty. His bat is better than most of the bench options the Twins typically have, but hasn't that been a concern? It would seem to me that Arcia's bat in the lineup is an improvement and Doumit's switch-hitting, multi-positional bat on the bench is an upgrade. Win on both fronts if you ask me.

A very similar situation occued for this team just over 20 years ago. Kent Hrbek was the beloved Twins 1B but they had promising prospect Paul Sorrento lurking. Hrbek was also 31 and Sorrento was putting up some exciting power numbers in the minors. The Twins chose to move Sorrento instead of Hrbek. It didn't work out well for the Twins as Hrbek had difficulties staying healthy and retired early but that was largely due to his poor conditioning. (I forget, did you write that great article a month or so back about Hrbek Cody?) If Morneau looks healthy and productive perhaps history repeats itself; the Twins haven't been shy about trading last decades 1st round picks this off season. I haven't heard the Hrbek/Sorrento parallel drawn yet but I'm sure it will come up often as the trade deadline approaches.

Great article, it's cathartic to read eloquent articles that properly sum up our collective frustration. Mike Illitch and the Tigers spend money on the team and field a competitve product to prove their loyalty to the fans, and as expected, the fans buy tickets and spend money at the stadium. Contrarily, the Pohlads and the Twins ask the fans to prove their loyalty to the team in the form of buying tickets and spending money at the stadium before they'll spend enough money to put a competitve product on the field.

I'm a total strikeout rube, and he has strikeout material, but you'll notice by his meager 6.5 K/9 last year that he didn't get nearly enough of them. That's because he's so "ineffectively wild" the batters don't have to take the bat off their shoulders. When your control is so bad that every batter can be Mauer-like selective, you have to go back to the drawing board.

Jackson should be a prime target for a risk terrified team like the Twins. Say he signs for 3 years at $39 million. Even if he's not pitching at a $13 million level, his track record says he's not likely to completely crash and burn. He'll give reasonable innings and limit BB while having the actual ability to strike a guy out if the situation is desperate for it. Will he pitch to a $13 million level? Maybe not, but there's little chance he'll pitch below a $10 million dollar value either. He's safe and besides, he's proven to be a very tradable commodity.

Andrew Friedman, but only on the condition that he has full control over scouting/development. He oddly doesn't work under a contract, you'd think at some point a team would come along and make him an offer he can't refuse. If the GM's salary was a big deal to St. Peter, I'd have no problem if it came out of the expected payroll. A good GM is better than an extra $5M or so to spend on the free agent market if you ask me.

Another great article, which is why I hate to point out that Mark Trumbo is holding the other outfield position and is putting up MVP caliber numbers. The Angel's are always after pitching though, and Liriano shouldn't be out of the question. They could trade for him with an eye toward offering him arbitration next year. If their current choices for their #3 pitcher next year are Liriano at arbitration value or the disappointing Ervin Santana at $13 million or Dan Haren at $15.5 million, Liriano may be the more attractive option.

The list is a great point of referrence regardless of any potential debate on the order.

Any chance the Twins hang on to Dalton Hicks? I didn't know anything about him until the draft, but his size is awesome and he was named to HS All Star teams with the biggest names from the 08 high school class.

Nice work. These are a little more depressing than one would hope, not due to your writing, just due to the scouting and developing. The 2009 version is particularly troubling. Thanks for putting these together.

I'd love Greinke, but I think a deal to remain with the Brewers is pretty close to a lock. They seem to be willing to spend the money and he seems to like it there. He even requested to be an off season scout to check out college arms for the up coming draft. Cole Hamels is probably also going to be resigned but I think he has a better chance of hitting the market. In 2014, Tim Lincicum, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza and Johan Santana are all free agents. They all have question marks but who knows what their values will be in 2 years. Twins certainly need an ace or two, and if they don't get one with the #2 pick in this draft, I think it's fair to say they will never develop one themselves. Trade or free agency are really the only options then.

In response to the question regarding a .500 record or trading for vets for 'specs, I think there's no debate. Fans are already on the ledge, a .500 record isn't going to appease anyone, might as well try to reload with some near MLB ready arms that actually have some upside and a K/9 rate north of 7.5. Won't happen though. The front office is pretty stubborn, they hold onto hot players, wait for their stock to cool then let Gardy declare them to the league as a clubhouse cancer. If TR was wise, he'd tell Gardy his next negative comment about his potential doghouse trade chips (Valencia? Revere? Liriano? Baker?) will be his last. The organization can give Gardy slack for poor play now, but only if he plays ball and stops denigrating anyone the team might like to move. Other clubs praise their players before trying to move them. It's a no-brainer business move, however, Gardy instead has helped to torpedo Young, Slowey, Hardy, Bartlet and Lohse's trade values, it can't happen again.

Dumatrait is the kind of guy who may ask to be released from his minor league deal seeing as he has big league experience and could hope to catch on with another club. I kind of thought Hicks would be playing CF at New Britain. I really don't know much about their skill sets but I suppose it's possible Mastroianni and Dolenc don't have the arm for RF. Dolenc is a big guy though, you'd think he profile for it.

That looks pretty plausible. One thing I notice is that the line between New Britain and Rochester is becoming blurred. Obviously it's due to the fact that many positions have multiple players that are quite similar in skill level. There are probably ten names on this list that should be in Rochester, there just isn't any room for them. There are quite a few guys here that have recently made an appearance at the MLB level as well. Last year the Twins demonstrated that they weren't afraid to call guys up from AA, that could happen again with several of these arms, Florimon or Matroinanni.

I guess if Nishioka is hitting there is good reason to keep him around. I retract my criticism. Still the real test is going to be if he can figure out how to play defense. That's going to be tough if Dozier gets the nod at SS and he's stuck at 2B.

It's unfortunate to say, but The Twins should really consider cutting the cord on Nishioka. The Twins don't have much infield talent, but Florimon, Chang and possibly Holliman shouldn't be given reduced playing time in favor of the already failed expirment. None of those three will ever be more than a utility player, but they still look to be more useful than Nishi.

If his control is back, New Britain is a very modest goal. Lord knows there isn't enough pitching talent in the system that will block him from multiple promotions. It will be interesting to hear everyone's plans for him once he reaches AA, but it's still hard to get too excited about a 1st round arm that only hits the low 90's on the radar gun. I know the Twins are late to this theory, but even they must acknowledge by now that strike outs are a far more efficient way of getting off the field than letting the other team put the ball in play and praying it doesn't find a hole or land over the fence.