nicksaviking

BB in college are probably something to be more skeptical about. I'd guess once the pitcher gets to full season ball however, the BB rate is probably a decent baseline for future projection. Seems to me the numbers start to become a little more guessable by that time, assuming we're not dealing with a small sample size issue.

Not to mention that after Hoey's shoulder surgery he had huge control issues. Aside from his first start, that doesn't appear to be a major concern for Burdi.

Why not? If he was, the team could just trade him for a top SS.

Low velocity wouldn't bother me if they still generated strikeouts.

Sorry if you folks have heard this one from me before, but I hate the rotation projections. Meyer does not project to be a #3 starter; #3 starters don't throw 98 with ++ strikeout potential. Meyer projects to be a #1-2 starter or back of the bullpen arm. I'm sorry if their rating criteria doesn't match the real life model of a MLB rotation, but that doesn't change the fact that their evaluations are misleading. Fireballing relievers have a repertoire and velocity more in common with front of the rotation arms than they do with the traditional command concious mid-rotation arms.

Nope. I merely brought it up because it seems that guys with a strong pedigree get many more chances to prove they can be useful. I'm not sure a Luke Hochaver, Jason Isringhousen, Zach Britton or Glen Perkins gets as much leeway if they previously weren't a high draft pick or highly rated prospect. Their stuff was well respected at one point so these guys likely get more chances as there likely is hope that the positives scouts saw at one point can still be salvaged. Sometimes it can.

This is where I have issues with keeping him down. You're not going to make him more durable by throwing extra pitches in Rochester. If he may not be durable, get as much as you can out of him before his clock strikes midnight.

As far as his pedigree is concerned, he was the 9th overall pick in 2005 and was BA's 20th ranked player in 2007, but he's not really living up to expectations as a starter. He hasn't been good with men on base, but Perkins, Nathan and Guardado were much worse with men on base before they were converted to the pen as well (full disclosure, Aguilera was better with men on base as a starter). So unless there is an actual issue with pitching from the stretch, and there may be, the issues with runners on base is most likely related to repetoir or some mental issue. We've seen many times that many problems can be fixed by turning a 93-95 MPH fastball into a 96-98 MPH fastball. Maybe he can't increase velocity, but I don't think there's anything to lose by trying to find out.

And sadly that was the correct assessment. Time to start refreshing our Bill Smith apologies.

I don't see an attack. Another poster previously said something I agreed with but instead of looking through all the posts again I instead anomalously paid him or her a compliment. I don't like WHIP, and because of the discourse I now am questioning my belief in OBP, so there has been some progress here I guess. I never felt any hostility from my counter part, he seemed civil from my perspective. I apologize if I somehow didn't sound the same.

OPS isn't nearly as useless, as it includes slugging percentage which weights the type of hits. A useful WHIP should be the inverse of that. Maybe OBP should take a back seat to more comprehensive stats, but I just don't see much value in a stat that says a guy who gives up 25 HR and 1 BB is the same as a guy who gives up 25 BB and one HR. As noted earlier by a wise poster, BB should be much less of a concern for a strikeout pitcher as they aren't nearly as susceptible to runners moving over on routine grounders and sac flies. If Meyer is going to strike out batters at twice the percentage of, say Gibson, the tolerance for him letting guys get to first should be much, much higher.

Right, WHIP is a terrible measurement. Anything that gives a silly little walk the same weight as a HR probably shouldn't be taken too seriously.

I think some are underestimating how difficult and perhaps even rare it is for a guy going on 20 to develop a third pitch almost from scratch and that pitch actually becoming useful.

Yes. I want Pelfrey nowhere near the rotation, but he certainly has the pedigree and the velociy (and lack of secondary pitches) that has turned many highly rated or drafted busts into solid if not exceptional relievers. The Twins should already be well acquainted with this concept, they've basically gotten their closers for the past 2 1/2 decades using this idea.

It won't matter how he hits with men on base, he's never going to get called up if he doesn't start taking walks. A lot more walks. He'll never get a chance to prove critics like myself wrong except perhaps for some token September call up when he's 26 when fans look at his minor league HR numbers and call to see him just for the hell of it. Bernardo Brito part II.

I wasn't comparing which arms they threw with, just comparing what appeared to be their lack of upside and ability to pitch well in the minors even when all evidence points to them not having the stuff to be effective at the MLB level. If his velocity is really as you say and he can start missing a good deal of bats, I'd be thrilled to change my opinion on him.

Hardly any HS arms make it out of the Midwest League for the Twins without putting in a full year. Things have changed though, let's hope Gonsalves gives the decision makers a lot to think about. I really do hope Gonsalves velocity is "developing." The numbers look great, but I thought he was throwing harder in HS. If anyone has info on the history of his velocity I'd love to hear it. I guess otherwise we'll have to assume it was a case of pitcher friendly radar guns. Speaking of...I'm going to have a hard time considering Rogers an actual prospect. I guess any player that can make it to the majors should be considered for these lists, but I don't recall Cole DeVries or Matt Fox ever making these things. I guess he's got the whole "crafty lefty" bit going for him, I just don't buy into that like I used to a decade ago. Lots of people probably will argue with the Walker ranking. Not me, it looks about right to me. I have hopes he can figure out how to take a walk, but at this time, his odds of making the MLB seem to be much less than the three pitchers on this list and due to his inability to get on base, I'd give the German the edge too.

If he put up those numbers, I'm not sure Suzuki would even need to get hurt for him to get a call up seeing as how much the team loves his defense. I don't assume he would hit anything near that though, he has never profiled to be much of a hitter. I'm not a big Duffey believer either, he looks an awful lot like the other high-contact AAAA arms that have come through the system in the last half decade. Hopefully there becomes a big enough log jam of talent for the rotation that he can go back to the pen where he can put more juice on his fastball.

I want to play too! I see it as so: Det 85 - 78 Chi 84 - 79 Twins 79 - 85 KC 79 - 85 Cle 72 - 90 The math on Chicago and Detroit is not typo, the AL Central gets another game 163. Twins finish ahead of KC due to head-to-head matchup. Cleveland is going to stink. Well the whole division is going to stink, just Cleveland stinks more than most.

Wait until the All-Star break at the earliest. There's no rush and we need a larger sample. I'm not big on players much older than their early 30's anyway. Additionally, what if the team gets lucky and some combinaiton Santana/Escobar/Polanco/Rosario end up showing they are good if not better options? Dozier and his 4 years of arbitration will be a lot more enticing for other teams than Dozier and a 6 year firm contract no matter how he performs.

I agree with the fast start, this team needs confidence. I don't think the Twins will contend, but I also think the AL Central is going to stink this year. KC played over their head last year, I don't think they play at that same level if they continue to have a below average offense. Detriot's bubble is ready to burst any minute, though if their vets hang on they could stretch it out another couple years. Chicago really improved this year and if all their free agent parts play around their expectations, they could be good, but that doesn't usually happen. In other words, I think a 78 win team may be able to contend for much of the year and I don't think 78 wins is that overly optimistic for the Twins.

No, Plouffe was yo-yoed around too. He got three games here, sat for a week, would get demoted, then called up for an injury replacement, play every other day, then start for a month when he got hot and benched again as soon as he got cold. He was used very similarly to Parmelee. This team, or perhaps more so Gardenhire, was not patient enough to develop young guys. I don't want May and Meyer up and down all year. I don't care if they struggle, they're wet behind the ears so the odds are they will. When they finally get their shot, let them ride out their problems at the majors all season long.

Agreed. The bottom line is we need to find out about the guys with a higher ceiling and the sooner we find out, the sooner the path to winning will become more clear. Maybe they aren't the answer and free agency is the best route. We just have to know. Let's see if we can get a usable assesment on them in 1.5 - 2 years as opposed to the four years we saw with Parmelee or even the three years we are about to see with Hicks and Pinto.

This is surely what the Twins will say, regardless of what actually transpires. To play devil's advocate though, what if the options are "take the 12 best guys" in an effort to get to 80 wins or so, or "take the ten best guys plus the two guys who have higher potential" because their development plan now requires them to be challenged at the MLB level?

Clearly the Twins love his ability to minimize BB, and his dedication to the game. Should Meyer struggle early or get digned up, I wouldn't be surprised if Berrios gets a call up before our giant fireballer.