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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    I get your point and it's valid, but if you are just looking at average starter ERA compared to his, that isn't taking into account ballparks or run environment. That's why I look at ERA+ instead of looking at average ERA. I mean, if I have to talk ERA.
  2. jimmer
    And we also have to take into account ballpark, which ERA+ does. It's not just about what the starting pitcher's average ERA was across the league compared to his because they all pitch in different parks too. So when just comparing ERA across the board, a key component of ERA+ is missed. 'For instance, if the average ERA in the league is 4.00, and the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark that favors hitters, and his ERA is 4.00, then his ERA+ will be over 100. Likewise, if the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark favoring pitchers, then the pitcher's ERA+ will be below 100. As a result, ERA+ can be used to compare pitchers across different run environments. In the above example, the first pitcher may have performed better than the second pitcher, even though his ERA is higher. ERA+ can be used to account for this misleading impression.' It's why I took into account ERA+ and not ERA. And, to be honest, I'm not a big fan of judging pitcher by ERA anyway, but I know many are, so I showed that and also WAR. I was going to break out FIP, you know.
  3. jimmer
    When looking at ERA+, he was a below average starter last year and has been a below average starter two of the last three seasons. When looking at WAR, he averaged around a 2.8 WAR the last two seasons but if you go back another year he's been below a 2 WAR pitcher on average over the last three seasons. ZiPS projected him to have a WAR under 1 this year before the suspension. Not sure how much we are really losing by having him gone for 1/2 a season. His best attribute is that he normally pitches a lot of innings, which is valuable but more valuable when you are really good.
  4. jimmer
    Overall team defense was a huge factor the last couple seasons, especially OF defense, and made the pitching look even worse than it is. We have done nothing to address that.
  5. jimmer
    'It's almost funny how so many are getting worked up about the opening day roster.' Every game in the season counts the same. Wins in April count the same as wins in September. Losses do too. I don't think it's surprising that people prefer to have the best team possible right out of the gate. Now whether or not a consensus could be reached between 20 fans on what the best 25 man roster would be, much less the whole fan base, is a question to which the answer is almost assuredly no.
  6. jimmer
    Maybe. Not sure about his body type though. He seems more, um, filled out than Magglio was in his younger days. But maybe his style of game. Not sure.
  7. jimmer
    Ah, those :-)
  8. jimmer
    I am, as always, looking forward to the season as much as I always have. Took Monday off to watch a bunch of games. Used to be a tradition for me, but with all the deployments and such, kind of got away from doing that. But I'll have the grill going and I'll be enjoying the game with a burger and a beer this year. Three Days till our season starts. GO TWINS!!!!!
  9. jimmer
    speaking of new uniforms, which ones did we say goodbye to?
  10. jimmer
    Not sure about this year, but I could see it in a year or two. There's something about this guy that intrigues me for sure.
  11. jimmer
    Hey there! I don't think he reaches 3000. either. If he somehow could, he'd be the first guy who was primarily a catcher to get over 2637 hits. There are only 7 guys in history who were primarily catchers to reach 2000. He could exceed the 2637 though. And yes, I get the frustration over seeing him have that big year in power and then not ever do it again, but I also get players have years that are just so out of whack in some areas in relation to the rest of their careers that what I do is enjoy that year for what it was. An extreme outlier. And that's what Mauer's HR power was that year. Some of those doubles/outs went a bit further than normal in a climate neutral environment we no longer play in.
  12. jimmer
    I admire your optimism and wish I could agree with your overall point of view on the state of our team. I am hoping you are right.
  13. jimmer
    What would be ideal (and somewhat doable) is that we go half the season the way it is, Rosario takes over CF at the break and then moves to a corner next season whenever Buxton joins us. Around the ASB.
  14. jimmer
    Meyer was auditioning for a spot in the rotation the same way Pridie and Span were auditioning for the CF job in ST 2008 :-) That being, there's no way in heck you're getting this spot.
  15. jimmer
    If they had realized he couldn't play shortstop a lot earlier and, therefore, moved him to 3rd base earlier, he might have turned out better sooner.
  16. jimmer
    you're right, though it's much less funny now. buzz kill :-)
  17. jimmer
    'Two of the biggest success stores on our team right now are Dozier and Plouffe. I looked at minor league baseballs top prospects from 2009 to 2011 and neither was listed as a top 20 prospect. Both came up around 25.' Yeah, but then again Plouffe was a first round pick who spent the max time he could in the minors before finally sticking by beating out Hughes. He's finally figured it out and that's great. I'm not a basher of him, but we shouldn't be like, 'Wow, out of nowhere came Plouffe, what a pleasant surprise' either :-)
  18. jimmer
    And this was my guess. .270/.315/.400. So we aren't too far off on the OPS.
  19. jimmer
    yeah, nobody wants to see that. :-)
  20. jimmer
    With his speed, he's normally going to sit higher than average on BABIP, but even if he drops down this year to a very good .320-.330 BABIP, that kills his OBP. Having a BABIP over .400 is just crazy.
  21. jimmer
    If Buxton is up 1 May I will streak through my town :-)
  22. jimmer
    I think he ends up back in CF after our less than inspiring CF platoon fizzles and then Escobar slides back to shortstop. .270/.315/.400
  23. jimmer
    'It's hard to make sense of what he did in 2014.' His BABIP explains those numbers. Over 100 points better than league average
  24. jimmer
    A normal Mauer is a run creator. But he doesn't do it in the ways everyone can easily point to like the HR. But he creates them, His OBP has value in the TEAM scoring runs. His ability to put bat on ball a lot and move runners over, is valuable. You would surely get more HR from the others, but you'd also lose like 60 points or so in OBP and 50 or so in BA and add Ks and so on. And lose on D too. The HRs would look pretty, but there is more to creating runs than that. So, now, until these guys prove they can score a wRC+ in the 130s-150s, I still believe that a regular Mauer will help our offense more because we'll have more opps to score runs based on his skills. Having said that, I think it'd be best for Mauer to waive his no trade and let the Twins move him if they actually want to.
  25. jimmer
    Did that price paid make the Twins continue to drop payroll? No? They continued to underspend anyway. They could have spent more, they chose not to. Mauer's salary didn't stop them The Twins almost doubled their worth this past offseason. Did it really hurt them? No. In 2012 and 2013 combined he was worth a hair over 46M based on what 1 WAR would cost on the open market. The assumption that the Twins would have gone and spent his salary on some great player from outside the organization just doesn't float. It's not in their nature and his salary hasn't stopped them from keeping anyone else in the organization who deserved what he got. His salary has not hurt this team at all. And by the time any of these supposed stud prospects we have hit the time in their career where they require big money, he'll be off the books. And that's before we talk about what signing the hometown guy means outside the lines in PR and other value, like ticket sales etc. His salary doesn't hurt this team a bit. If he continues to play like 2014, which I doubt, that would be bad for sure. But since he's only had two seasons like that and 2012 and 2013 were pretty darn good, i imagine he'll be much better than 2014 Joe.
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