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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    And to continue on with that, I'm not sure how good of an idea it is to just figure that a guy who had his best OPS+ at age 30 is going to continue to do that well, but some people like to believe that a player's last season, even if it's a career season, is the best predictor of his next season no matter how much history he has to the contrary. I've never found that to be very true, but I'm sure it's worked out before. It can be a comfy blanket of an idea as we find ourselves extending/signing players like that though.
  2. jimmer
    that was very funny!
  3. jimmer
    He didn't give the team a chance to win regardless of the stats or metrics. The metrics/stat tell us that he did just that.All the metrics/stats tell us is how well he was able to do that. It's not like the metrics/stats say he was horrible but he still somehow managed to keep us in the games so there's really no conflict there. If anything, I'd say some of the simpler stats, like quality starts (and quality start percentage) didn't do him justice when talking about how well he kept us in games, even though many point to that stat when determining whether or not a SP gave his team a chance to win.
  4. jimmer
    ZIPS is the most accurate projection model for baseball out there. I look forward to seeing theirs. And, I need to note, I said Steamer 'predicts' in my previous post. These models don't actually predict. They project. It's a subtle difference. I've seen projections for next year where no team is projected to win 90 or more games in the AL. I really don't think that the people who do the projections are really predicting every AL team to fall short of 90 wins. So, yeah, grains of salt for sure.
  5. jimmer
    Well, as a young padawan, you should know that having a beard was the reason Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon were so confident :-)
  6. jimmer
    Steamer predicts Hughes to 3.89 FIP and a 2.5 WAR.
  7. jimmer
    Exactly, FIP isn't predictive. We shouldn't be using that to predict next year. xFIP is better for that and it had last year at 3.18 Somewhere in between last year and what he's done before is where I was saying we should expect him to be. And that I hope people won't view that as a negative. Look at it this way, he had the 6th best FIP and that resulted in like the 42nd or so best ERA due to our defense. Imagine what happens to his ERA if he even goes to a 3.50 FIP (which is still quite good), with the defense behind him, he's looking at a mid 4.00 ERA and some people will freak.
  8. jimmer
    If that's what it takes to have Hughes have another season where his FIP is better than Kershaw's (the only current SP with 1000 IP or more and a career FIP under 3.00), King Felix's, and Pedro's career FIPs, then DO IT! :-)
  9. jimmer
    Again, I hope you are right.
  10. jimmer
    I know all about FIP, and you seem convinced past the point of any chance of convincing you other-wise, so I hope you are right.
  11. jimmer
    Hughes FIPs this decade: 4.25 4.58 (half season) 4.46 4.50 Then last year 2.65. That's a huge difference. More than a run and a half lower than his BEST season this decade and almost 2 runs better than his past couple years. I think it's unlikely that we can expect to see such a huge difference in performance from the rest of his performance this decade. We all want that to continue but that FIP ranked him like 6th in the majors. He's not the 6th best pitcher in the majors. He can continue to be very good but what would be sad is if he went to somewhere in the middle of what he had done prior to this year and what he did last year and people got disappointed because they were convinced he'd maintain that level of awesome based on one season.
  12. jimmer
    The question is, can he sustain these new mechanics and approach? I heard the same kind of comments about Suzuki's approach to batting last year and he went right back to having the same kind of results he had been having. In fact, we get these same kind of comments any time a player suddenly significantly improves upon his career norm. Most of the time, players fall back into old habits. So, I don't think believing he'll regress is unwarranted or due to not paying close enough attention. We'll see if 2014 was an outlier or the start of a new trend for Hughes. I'm guessing he regresses some if only for the fact his season was so awesome, it'd be hard for too many pitchers to repeat that. That includes pitchers who have a longer track record of very good than him.
  13. jimmer
    'Baseball Prospectus has developed metrics that measure, in essence, the extent to which catchers are responsible for the calls that go their way. When you consider how many times a good framer influences at-bats, and how many runs that can save during the course of a season, you see how truly valuable he is to his team. Now that's a great catcher.'--http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/11127248/how-catcher-framing-becoming-great-skill-smart-teams-new-york-yankees-espn-magazine
  14. jimmer
    Suzuki was rated as one of the worst framers in baseball last year and his unsustainable first half hitting predictably came back down to his normal poor level in the last couple months. I would hope his job isn't secure in the least.
  15. jimmer
    Without digging too deep, perhaps because it's a comparable stat and, most of the time the worst OF are in LF (even moreso when he was playing) so his competition for comparison was worse? Nowadays Alex Gordon is a nice exception, as was Trout when he played there. Plus, if I remember correctly, his arm wasn't great, at least not what you would expect from a RF. I often wonder how losing the ball in the Metrodome ceiling effected his LF numbers. That was often comical :-)
  16. jimmer
    Unless I'm reading it wrong, seems to me that ball hit high on the wall wouldn't negatively affect the RF UZR, since it's not catchable, UZR would just not account for the play at all, like it never happened. Like walks don't affect a BA.
  17. jimmer
    From Fangraphs: The data also tells us if a ball hits off an outfield wall (on the fly) and whether, in the judgment of the “stringer,” it was catchable or not. If not, then the play is ignored. If a “wall ball” was catchable, it is treated like any other batted ball at that distance, with no regard for whether it hit the wall or not.
  18. jimmer
    So you're saying that after acquiring the worst defensive RF in baseball over the last two years, we should expect his numbers to be even worse because of TF's RF wall? :-)
  19. jimmer
    People like to compare Raines to Rickey, but there's another person who might be a better fit for comparison. Raines finished his career with a .385 OBP, a .425 SLG and a 123 OPS+ in 10,359 PA Gwynn finished his career with a .388 OBP, a 459 SLG and a 132 OPS+ in 10,232 PA Raines scored 1,571 runs and drove in 980 Gwynn scored 1,383 runs and drove in 1,138 Raines stole 808 bases and was caught 146 times Gwynn stole 319 bases and was caught 125 times B-ref WAR has Raines at 66.2, good for 97th all-time. It has Gwynn at 65.3 wins, 102nd place all-time. the one real difference between him and Raines was hits. Raines had 2,605 hits and Gwynn had 3,141. That’s a difference of 536. However, Raines had 1,330 walks to Gwynn’s 790, a difference of 540.
  20. jimmer
    Well, he was better than Tommy John and Kaat. Those two are comparable to each other, with John beinga little better and Mussina being quite a bit better than both. Problem is when you let lesser pitchers in, some even first ballot, it makes it harder to say a guy like Mussina shouldn't be in. That's what has happened. Mussina's biggest problem is that he was never flashy, he just went about doing his job professionally and didn't push for the spotlight, but he was as good as Smoltz if not better, better than Glavine and better than many others that are in.
  21. jimmer
    yeah, here’s a guy who finished in the top 10 in ERA+ 11 times in a 17 year span ’92-’08. 7 of those 11 times, he was top 5. All this while pitching in the AL East against the best offenses in the game.
  22. jimmer
    I agree with most of that. Not the dominance part in regards to Morris, or Oliva being deserving, but overall I agree we want it to be the Hall of Fame. Problem is, everyone has their view on where the line of very good and great meet. Mussina, IMO, belongs. I don't even care about the Wins/Loss stat for pitcher, so, for me, it has nothing at all to do with that.
  23. jimmer
    Mauer had an off year for sure, but his OBP is normally very high and the last thing you want is that kind of OBP buried down in the lineup. The guys that get on base the most should be the ones that have the most plate appearances. Not only that, but he normally hits very well with RISP. And the idea that he hits into way too many double plays, well that's not really true based on amount of opportunities he comes to the plate in those situations. Nor is it a lot based on overall times batting into a DP.
  24. jimmer
    Schilling ERA+ 127, his WAR 83.2 Mussina's ERA+ 123 (exclusively in the AL...and not only that, the AL East), his WAR 82.5 Smoltz ERA+ 125, his WAR 78.7 Glavine's ERA+ 118, his WAR 64.3 Morris ERA+ 105, his WAR 52.5
  25. jimmer
    There isn't one.
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