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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    This is a serious question - do the Minnesota Twins pay TwinsDaily writers? The Twins had arguable their worst pitching staff in decades and we're claiming they're ahead of the curve because of one silly definition of a pitch? We're so behind the curve, the curve is a dot to us.
  2. gunnarthor
    If the Twins think his bat is going to stay around a 79 OPS+ bat, then they should move on. I like what else he gives us but his bat needs to improve. He really struggled in July and August (limited at-bats) but his bat heated up a bit at the end of the year, with more consistent playing time. With 26 man benches, his speed and versatility makes sense but you have to be Nick Punto to get away with such a low OPS+.
  3. gunnarthor
    Been thinking about that one. Looks depressing but amazing cast. Speaking of HBO, because I now have HBO MAX, I'm watching "Carnival" from the early 2000s. Surprisingly good, so far.
  4. gunnarthor
    Michael Cuddyer. Solid pro.
  5. gunnarthor
    Ryan - he's 26 next year. Generally, you know what you have with a 26 year old. Now, COVID changed things and he was a nice get, but he's likely a backend starter, at best. That's not really his "low-end potential." I like Ryan a lot but my guess is that the Twins will move annoyingly slow with him next year - he pitched only 90 or so innings last year (not counting the Olympics) and the Twins will probably aim for him to pitch somewhere near 130-150 next year. That's not really a front-line starter. My guess is the Twins would happily take a 30 start, 135ip 105-110 ERA+, 2 WAR season from him next year and call it a win. I do think Jax can be a solid relief pitcher but not an elite one. He gives up to many HR but at an inning or less at a time, he could be an arm. Kiriloff - I think this is the most likely of the ones but still not likely. I think (barring injury) he'll be a solid middle of the order bat and occasional all-star. MVP contender might be a bit much but he'll be a big offensive weapon for us. Lewis - he's missed two years of baseball and struggled with the bat. His minor league numbers are just bad. He had trouble getting an OBP over .300 in A+. I'm really surprised prospect gurus ranked him as high as they do. Hopefully they are right and I'm wrong but I think the Twins would be crazy to rely on Lewis at all next year.
  6. gunnarthor
    I think it's two different questions but generally, no, the Central doesn't have a problem. The Sox did ok, as most good teams do, against other good teams and beat up really bad teams. That's pretty usual. I think the Sox don't stack up well against Houston in particular but that has more to do with those rosters. I do think that playing a generally soft schedule (like Chicago got this year b/c of how bad the central was) isn't good for a team over the course of the year but it probably doesn't impact the final records that much.
  7. gunnarthor
    I think he wants multiple years and the Twins probably just want one. His agent will shop him around to see if he can find that second year somewhere. I like Pineda as my fifth starter but I'm really worried that the Twins view him as their opening day starter. We need several pitchers better than him and we have none in-house, which means we have to trade or sign them in free agency. So I would wait on signing Pineda to try and get the better pitchers first.
  8. gunnarthor
    I don't want to derail the topic but the Twins said back when payroll was lower than it had to be that they weren't going to spend money just to push payroll up when they had the young guys they wanted to play anyway. They've also said that there wasn't any reason to spend big when we were rebuilding or retooling and we could plug those holes from inside. So we have decades of the team admitting they kept payroll lower than it had to be, even when we were making the playoffs. We've never had a corresponding era of ownership pushing payroll above where it "should" be because it was time to move all in. Right now, we have an MVP-type player in his prime and a strong offensive nucleus around him. This was the time for ownership to step up and say, "pitching sucked this year, we'll figure it out next year and bring in the arms this team needs to compete." But they didn't. They traded the one good pitcher we had. So payroll should be high enough to keep the window of opportunity open and if FO and ownership mistakes mean that number is raised even higher, so be it. I've spent 30 years listening to this small payroll crap. Until MLB opens their books to the union, cries of poverty are BS. Next years payroll should be big enough to sign at least two of Rodon, Gausman, Thor, Stroman, Ray, Scherzer. Plus a guy like Matz and Dylan Bundy. They can go overbudget for a few years, if that's even over budget.
  9. gunnarthor
    I'm just finishing Haunting on Hill House with my daughter and will go onto Bly Manor next. Is Midnight Mass scary? I thought it looked more like a depressing drama.
  10. gunnarthor
    We need to create a pitching staff that will be able to cover 1500 or so innings. He can solidly cover 60-70. He's a pretty obvious arb guy and an asset they'll move at the deadline next year.
  11. gunnarthor
    Is Buxton going to go somewhere and load up on PEDS? Also, isn't it great how ownership has completely persuaded the fan base that low payrolls were so natural that no one blames the Pohlads for not paying to keep Ortiz and are willing to accept payroll as a reason to not pay Berrios or Buxton?
  12. gunnarthor
    I'm not as worried about catching. We have three capable catchers of varying quality. Rortvedt's bat is always worse than I thought but I still have some faith in him turning into a quality catcher. Garver's bat is good enough that I might now be ok with him moving to full time DH if it keeps him the lineup more. Jeffers has shown signs although if any were traded, I'd vote for him. Of all the holes we have for next year (every spot on the pitching staff), we have enough internal options to make this work.
  13. gunnarthor
    It really depends on what the Twins plans for 2022 are. My guess is that they'll trade Buxton and "retool" rather than a rebuild. So they'll keep Sano and trade him at the deadline.
  14. gunnarthor
    2011. I remember arguing that the 2010 team didn't have any obvious "career seasons" and there was room for some improvement. Sure, Morneau's 187 OPS+ wasn't sustainable over a full season but a full season of his prime would be better than 2010. Cuddy and Kubel both had lower OPS+ than expected. Young was finally breaking out and we should expect more to come. I expected a little regression from Valencia but he was a solid MLer at that point and Hudson was going to be replaced by an MVP! And it looked like Liriano was finally back and Pavano was a solid vet behind him in the rotation. -sigh-
  15. gunnarthor
    I think the problem is, again, while nearly every move is defensible, and so is their draft strategy (at least, arguably defensible), it's not working. The list of "didn't work" is growing pretty long with this FO.
  16. gunnarthor
    While I like the returns for Cruz and Berrios, that's obviously not a "what went right" discussion since we had to flop to move those two. I'd put Polanco and Donaldson on the what went right from our lineup guys. And Garver looked good when healthy as has Buxton. In the minors, Miranda looks great, as Bean noted, and I'm a little excited about Cabbage's play, admittedly, I've always overvalued him but I really hopes he makes it. Balazovic continued to look good as did Winder when healthy. And on the young guys side, Ober looks like he can pitch in the majors and while Jax doesn't, it was impressive what he was able to do with all the time lost over the years. Kiriloff will be a solid MLer. Maybe not a constant all-star but he should be a solid, middle of the order bat for years to come.
  17. gunnarthor
    The Yankees won the trade but that doesn't necessarily mean it was a "bad" trade for us. Unless the prospect flames out, usually you lose a trade where you send a guy with more years of control for a vet. But were there better internal options or low value free agents? Cave was cheap, was this a cost based move? But the number of defensible but didn't work out as envisioned moves by this FO is certainly growing.
  18. gunnarthor
    Nice article! I've mentioned this before but I have a friend who is an international scout for the Royals. He pushed heavily for them to sign Whitefield but they didn't. He sent me a text the day he signed with the Twins telling me that we got a nice little player with upside. When he made the majors, he told me his bosses sent him a congratulatory note as well.
  19. gunnarthor
    That short video of Petty was something. Long ways to go but no reason not to be excited about him.
  20. gunnarthor
    In this last season, Miranda and Balazovic have really been exciting for us. I'm a bit surprised miranda isn't up yet. Hopefully, Balazovic and Ryan are solid ML starters for us for a long time.
  21. gunnarthor
    There's a different thread for stock tips!
  22. gunnarthor
    I think Mike and Bean are about right. He's a real ML quality pitcher, which is in tragically short supply around here. He'll have some great games and some duds. He's not as good as Berrios but in his career season, he could be an all-star. COVID pushed back his debut so that's a big problem, he's still got to go through the ups and downs of adjusting to the majors. I love that he pitches quickly. As to how valuable he'll be, I think that depends on the Twins pitching philosophy. It seems like he could be a 200 inning pitcher but the Twins might want him to be a 130-150 inning pitcher.
  23. gunnarthor
    I think Nick's plan is probably something we will likely see and mean that we're a 70 win team next year. 1) Ober and Pineda have combined for 33 starts, about 160 innings, and 1.6 WAR. Unless we expect a significant improvement and health from both of them next year, those are back of the rotation pitchers. 2) I can see why Nick suggested the names he did, it sounds like a very Twins move. Corey Kluber (36 next year, 1.2 WAR in 11 starts this year), Charlie Morton (38 next year, career year this year), Alex Cobb (34 next year, 1.2 WAR in 15 starts this year), Andrew Heaney (80 ERA+ this season) are not #2/3 pitchers. They are 4/5 type pitchers and there's a lot of risk. Twins can't win if the best they have are 4/5 type pitchers. 3) I'm all for trading Kepler and Arraez to get pitching. I'm not sure the Twins are good at identifying pitching but we pretty much have to do this. Also, I think it's time for TD to stop fawning over Maeda's 11 random starts for the Twins in 2020 in a weird season. He's now given us 32 starts at 109 ERA+, 173ip, 1.8 WAR. That's solid but those aren't numbers you want from someone you expect to be a 2/3 starter (which he isn't). 4) Dobnak. For the life of me, I cannot understand this FO's infatuation with Dobnak. Great story and all, and I'm glad he will make millions off the Twins, but he's a really bad pitcher. Playoff teams don't rely on Dobnaks.
  24. gunnarthor
    I meant better career from the trade date. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Graterol surpassed Maeda's career WAR (either b-r or fangraphs). It's mostly a question of innings. But as you know from this past off-season, I was the low man on Maeda even before this season. Still, I think the trade made sense for both teams. (I also see that someone remembered that we threw in a draft pick. I had forgotten that. That's two picks this FO has traded away. I hate that.)
  25. gunnarthor
    My guess is that Graterol will have the better career. He's also the better talent. So in that regard, the dodgers probably will "win" the trade. But the trade made sense. Certainly not the worst move the FO made.
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