gunnarthor

Hello everyone. Sorry I'm late. Seems like Ryan is doing ok?

That's usually a bit better than your normal PTBNL.

I've complained about that before as well. That was one thing Gardy always advocated for - even when he rested Mauer, he would put Redman in the same spot. (As did Leyland when Redmon was playing for Rodriguez). He said that players need consistency, even when they are struggling. It's interesting to see how much batting orders change. If you look at 2006 - 6 players got 90+ starts in the same batting order spot. Last year, the Twins had one. And almost every spot was pretty fluid. No consistent middle of the order.

I think this team is slightly better constructed then last year's team, so it should be slightly better. And everyone is at or under 50 PA, so we have a huge sample size issue. But if you construct a high slg, low obp team, you'll get dry spells. I thought adding Kiriloff and Correa full time would improve that. I didn't have high hopes for Kepler, he's underperformed his stats for years now. And, obviously, Buxton's injury isn't good (1-4 without him in the lineup). There's no obvious fix, the players will have to play their way out of these slumps. I expect most will. It's also worth remembering that the AL is pretty blah this year. As bad as the Twins are, we're only 3GB of the best record in the AL. So we haven't been knocked out of the playoffs yet.

The offense will get better - if healthy. And I wish they'd push Martin to AAA at this point. Team is getting a bit thin. I don't like the staff but it is what it is. Best case scenario is the offense blows up and carries the team for a long stretch. Not sure if we will get back to .500 this season but I'm still hoping. It's really early and if they can win a few series, things will look better.

I enjoyed Murderville. I have to say, I'm slowly watching Mythic Quest with my son and the episode that showed CW's origin - that he took credit for Isaac Asimov's work - was the best show I've seen in a long, long time. I didn't expect an episode that serious and emotional from them. On a stupid note, there is a show called "Beforiegners" on HBO Max. The premise is beyond stupid but they play it straight. It's also in Norwegian. But it might be worth a look.

Agreed, 1000x.

This is a pretty ugly team right now. I was afraid of the pitching staff and our refusal/inability to get starters who can throw 200 innings is going to really expose this pen. Arraez at first, Gordon hitting fifth ... I thought our offense had some depth but early injuries are really testing it. I don't think we're this bad (102 loss pace right now, SSS) but we might have less room for error than I thought.

Man, the anti-Sano **** on TD is getting a bit toxic. Let's dial it back a bit, ok?

He's fine. I liked Torii and Morneau better, but he's fine. Bremer is starting to become a problem for me.

Nice play by both Sano and Bundy there.

It's been six games. His babip is .000, it's usually over .300. If he had those three hits, he'd be closer to Kepler's line. Relax. His line will probably be very similar to last year.

In a crazy world where the ND safety falls to the Vikings, anyone think they take him? Or do they have more pressing needs? Also, who is the top 10ish player who falls this year on draft day?

That may happen but I doubt it. Smith was given 4 years and he made the playoffs in two of them, went to a game 163 in the other, had one total system failure year. His teams set attendance records as well. Ryan was given 5 years and was fired during his total system failure season which was one year after the waive of youngsters came up (Buxton and Berrios spent less time in the minors that the new FO's equivalent picks - Lewis and Enlow). And attendance was good until his TSF season. This is the sixth season for Falvey. They haven't had much production from their minor leaguers yet and they've made a number of bad trades. Attendance has been bad under them (not all of that is their fault, obviously, but they had attendance issues before COVID). And they've had two dumpster fire seasons already. I don't know that we need another three years.

Again, we don't set the payroll, the Pohlads do and it's low. Again. 17th in baseball right now. That's just something we have to accept. As for Larnach, I doubt the FO blindly assumed anything. I'm sure they had offseason plans for him, spoke with coaches and doctors, looked at metrics of other similar players, etc. But they invested a lot in him already (and Kiriloff. And Rooker and Vanimal noted). LF wasn't an obvious need. Conforto is a big resource requirement. I'm not surprised they didn't (and won't) go after him. He turned down a deal for 120 and is seeking a bigger deal than Castellonos' 5/100 deal. And he's apparently hurt, too.

It's too early to revise my ST prediction. Despite the slow start, the offense will be good but the pitching staff won't be good. Not a huge fan of Rocco. Of the players struggling, I'm most worried about Kepler actually. 2019 is looking far away and we have some potential bats to replace him with. Sano has been ok in the field to my naked eye but might be better suited for full-time DH at some point. I think both Correa and Buxton are truly great players, so I'm not going to worry about them and just enjoy watching them play. I'm really impressed with Duran and I think Bundy will be good. If the staff really can maintain a 115 ERA+, they'll make the playoffs. But I don't think they can or will. We just lack the horses.

I don't like this FO and I think they'll be gone at the end of the year but I can't say they made a mistake on planning that Kiriloff and Larnach take a step forward. This was a solid offense (if a bit unlucky) last year while they struggled. Using their very limited resources to block those guys would have been a mistake. Low budget teams need to see highly regarded prospects develop and they need to give them those chances. As for Conforto, he not only costs serious $$, he also would cost the team a draft pick. He was never a realisitic option. Smith, Ryan, Levine. We have 30 years of evidence that the Pohlad family isn't going to push the payroll. Even with the Correa signing, we're in the bottom half in payroll. I won't blame the FO for those restraints. They have to learn how to work better in them though.

Honestly, I'm a bit pessimistic. The FO has to know they are on a short-leash at this point so maybe they do some "win-now" trades but I think our pitching staff is just so bad that we could see a fire-sale at the deadline and then see the youngsters coming up.

That's not because the plan, apparently, is to start Larnach.

If his ceiling is 4th OFer, he shouldn't be our starting LFer.

Because his primary position seems to be CF. We have some good players at that position and highly rated prospects that might be able to play it as well. It could be better to trade him for a real starting pitcher.

Sano has been a solid player, even with his defensive liabilities. So the reason I picked Cuddy was because 1) he was a well regarded prospect (#17 his last year on the lists) and 2) defensive stats hated him (-15 dWAR for his career)*. I compared the two through Sano's age 29 season. Cuddy, through the same year (meaning his full season v. 6 games for Sano), was a solid player but not as good as Sano. Part of that problem is that pitching has dominated hitting the last few years so good hitting isn't as obvious. Sano posted a .778 OPS last year, which is a 118 OPS+. Cuddy posted a .779 OPS in 04 which was only worth 100 OPS+. Heck, Sano's stat line last year was very close to his stat line in 2016 but his OPS+ that year was only 108. Dozier was a better player in his prime years (ages 27-30, two of which Sano hasn't played yet) but I would disagree that people didn't classify him as a power hitter. They very much did. I'm not sure why people are always so anti-Sano. Some of it was because he was supposed to be the next Cabrera and win HR titles and he hasn't done that. Part of it is because he strikes out a lot. There are other reasons. But, from a baseball standpoint, he's been an above avg bat. And by the end of the year, his 2022 will probably look a lot like his 2021 - 30+ HR, solid OPS+, bad defense, 130 or so games. * How much you want to credit defensive stats in both accurately measuring and accurately valuating defense is up to you. I tend to ignore dWAR except for up the middle defenders and third and ignore UZR for OFers but to each their own.

I disagree. Remember how Rosario struggled in 14 and 15 at AA and AAA? His prospect status plummeted and folks wrote him off. But he comes up and in 15 and took off. Maybe Larnach will be similar. But I want to see. I like both Gordon and Celestino but he's a utility player. Celestino should be in AAA getting at-bats, improve his prospect stock, and be a trade chip.

I think if the Twins had a more competitive team, more people would show up. I agree with the general premise that the game has become less fun to watch but I don't know what to do about it. I don't really mind all the homeruns and walks but high strike outs and low OBP teams are not fun to watch.

Larnach is 25. It's time for him to play at the ML level. Either he can or he can't but the Twins need to give him the opportunity to find out. He was a first round pick. Let's see what he can do.