DocBauer

Agreed. But look at the talent and untapped potential still.. And despite some pedestrian numbers, a huge improvement over 2019. And he's had some good streaks and shown his power potential. How much more could we be seeing if he had 2020 to start this rebound? I'm not sure the Twins will have the room to protect him this offseason. And maybe they shouldn't. But it could be a dangerous decision not to. Again, I think he and the Twins "lost" more on/for him than any other prospect with the lost 2020 season.

Said it before and will say it again, of all the prospects in the Twins system, Javier may have been most affected by a lost 2020 season. The Twins are going to have a tough time regarding him and the 40 man this offseason. Imagine how much further along he might be and how much easier the decision might be if he had played last year. Another good day for the system!

I dare to say this because the risk can't be avoided. But could Buxton be a Puckett kind of face of the franchise? His talent and his potential is game breaking. Could he languish in the unfortunate hall of "what Could have been"? Absolutely! And the Twins could have a burn that lingers for a few years. But how do you ever "go for it" unless you take a risk once in a while? Despite being a frustrated fan, I can easily get why the Twins are trying to play things safe. I mean, realistically, how can you commit 10% plus of your payroll to a guy you don't even know can be on the field for 100 games or more? But how can you not ignore what he does when on the field and HAVE to believe that bad luck HAS to even out at sometime? That's the rub. $15M per with decent, honest incentives for 100 games and then 120 games that raise the annual value to $25M. Toss in an opt out after 4yrs if you need to. If he rejects that, I'm not sure what you are supposed to do at that point.

On the surface, this trade makes sense in return value and I would strongly consider it with a potential overpay of Peraza and Gill, even if it helps the Yankees. His overall ability offensively, his defense, CF flexibility and cost control gives him a value that is underappreciated. Even if he just never adjusts his approach whatsoever, he has great value as a primary starting OF with quality defense and can play a solid CF over 120-140 games as a starter who you sit against a LHSP but can come in to a game when the SP is out. But these are also the reasons for the Twins to keep him and just make sure you have a quality RH OF to give him, and Larnach, some days off. There is an illusion the Twins have a glut of power hitting corner OF. Larnach and Kirilloff have graduated and have bright futures. Wallner is the next big bat and he's in A+ with some potential. Rooker is a virtual clone of Willingham, a guy who should be a DH but won't kill you in the OF or 1B. There are also a couple guys who aren't big bats, but have the potential to be solid starters or 4th OF options who have a sort of "overall" ability to contribute at the ML level. And I'm not saying there isn't value for that kind of player. Think Hatcher, Lawton, or Cave when he was healthy and actually hitting. Potentially, some solid guys who could carve out a nice niche, maybe even as a starter. But right now, today, the depth of the OF in the system is a collection of young, talented CF who are at AA and below. And this includes Celistino who should be at St Paul. A return for Kepler should be pretty big because you have to look at a lot more detail other than "he never turned out to be a star". I wouldn't move him unless there was a nice overpay I couldn't turn down.

The Twins have questions at SS. Palacios is having a fine year in his return from the Rays where he just couldn't hit AA pitching previously.. How is he not at AAA at this point to see if his bat is even close to being real? Another good day in the system overall.

Just a couple quick comments besides "we won!" 1] Happ still has SOME value as a trade chip with his career and some good games this year. He may not bring a lot back, but I would be willing to bet someone would offer of a decent AA player or A+ flier for a veteran LH to make starts and hope for a couple months re-surgance in their drive. 2] I was always concerned that everyone seemed convinced that Jeffers was going to suddenly be a STUD after such a SSS to end 2020. Which is why I hoped for a cheap veteran LH catching option for depth. But in a lost season, and with inconsistency that I expected, I'm still seeing enough in Jeffers that I think he's going to be OK. And his continued development may allow Garver to spend more time at 1B and DH as well as being the #2 catcher to keep him in the lineup daily. 3] Gordon FINALLY got to play as a call-up. He showed a spark. Then he struggled. Surprise for a rookie with limited AB! He has also been transitioning to a position he has never played before on the fly. So he sits. And then he has a good game. Etc. I have no idea if Gordon will turn out to be a quality starter at any position or turn out to be a NICE utility player. I strongly lean toward the latter at this point. But in a lost season, again I say, let the kid play! You've protected him for 2yrs because you see potential. Then let him play, here, there, everywhere but let him play in a lost season and see what you might or might not have!

Hey, so a quick Google search about Ryan should bring up a very interesting article about him from Sports Illustrated. There is also a link to the article concerning the original trade, so I won't attempt to provide the link here. Probably the most common frame of reference regarding a "deceptive fastball" is the way a pitcher "hides" the ball for a moment longer than others. This can come in various forms, but think someone like Ober, for example, and regardless of his new-found velocity. Tall and long, the batter doesn't see the ball coming out of Ober's hand as quickly as he would out of most pitchers. What Ryan does is release his pitch a fraction later and "lower" than most pitchers. Regardless of where he is "sending" the pitch, his release point is lower above the ground, literally, than the height at which most pitchers release the ball. Now, we're not talking about a sidearm or underhanded delivery, but in a similar fashion, the ball is coming in at a different "level" than a batter is used to seeing, creating deception. He developed his release after years of playing water polo and the article at SI can explain it better than me, but that is the jist of it.

Decided to post this year, being slightly more recent of an OP, and forgive me if someone also posted previously elsewhere. Drew Strotman was drafted higher than Joe Ryan initially. Reports have him consistently throwing in the mid 90's with some quality secondary stuff. He is ranked behind Ryan now not due to ability/potential but because he had TJ surgery in June of 2018. (I believe my time frame is correct). Strotman then returned to the hill in 2019 for 4 games in the old GCL and 5 games in the A+ FSL following his rehab. He then missed all of 2020, as virtually everyone did, with time spent at the Ray's alternate site. He was added to the Ray's 40 man this year and jumped over AA to pitch at AAA this year, 2021. Control is always the last thing to come following TJ surgery. What his future may hold, and Ryan's for that matter, is to be determined. But Strotman is NOT some "throw in" arm on this deal. His 2021 numbers are solid across the board except for a slightly elevated BABIP and his BB numbers. Again, getting all of his control back after surgery, a missed season, and skipping over AA. Not being able to watch Nellie finish the year stinks. But father time IS going to catch up and sooner rather than later. He was going to be a FA after this year and the Twins are in the same place now as they will be when the season ends, a potential bidder if they want to be. To acquire a pair of arms with this much potential for a half season rental, no matter how good Cruz is, was a tremendous return that I never saw coming.

What am I missing here? I mean, Cruz could be a real difference maker for the Rays, but a top pitching prospect and another good pitching prospect, both at AAA and from an organization known for finding and developing arms for a half season rental? Intrigued and excited! But this just seems too good to be true.

Bingo! A change in philosophy, team wide or personal, along with, PERHAPS, a change in coaching, might still see some improvement from Max to unlock his talent/potential. I DO NOT want to label Kirilloff as a 1B only at this point as I think he's fine as a corner OF as well. Even without raising his game to another level, a RH hitting OF of decent quality allows Kepler to semi-platoon and help cover CF as well. (I dismiss defensive metrics for this season due to his hamstring issue). Think Refsnyder being real or a RH version of Cave to be added. (No snark needed, I'm making an example). The Twins have graduated Kirilloff and Larnach with real promise and potential shown. Celistino has been promoted way early, which we all recognize, but has nice potential in CF with a little more time, or as a versatile 4th OF. But as it stands today, the majority of OF talent in the minors is mostly at A ball. A lot of teams in contention could get real help from Kepler. And you have to listen if they call. But he is young enough, talented enough, proven enough, and cost controlled to be a viable, quality part of the Twins for the next few years. The offer to move him would have to be pretty damn good.

JMO, with Berios still here in 2022, I've believed the Twins will, obviously, make a trade or sign a FA to add to the top of the rotation. The smart thing would probably be another inexpensive Shoemaker-like signing as a flier for competition and depth. But I also firmly believe that the final 2 rotation slots will be opened wide for Ober, Dobnak, Winder, Duran, and Balazovic. Barnes and Jax may get looks but are probably a notch behind along with Sands who I hope gets to finish with some AAA time yet this year. So I think there is a 50% chance that at least one of Winder or Balazovic break with the Twins. Both should be part of 2022 regardless.

Just want to echo the other various comments about Jordy Blaze. I can see not rushing him too hard. I can see another game or two at AA to continue to build confidence, momentum, sharpen something, but he needs to be up in ST Paul really soon. The only concern about him, Winder, Duran, Miranda, etc getting ML time this year is the very limited September call-up option that MLB so "wisely" put in to place. You don't get to bring up 6-10 guys like you used to be able to for auditions and getting their feet wet. Nope, that would ruin the integrity of the final month for contending teams. (eyeroll). So you have to have enough room on the 26 man to even be able to get all these guys time. A lot will depend on the deadline probably.

Whether you believe in Sano or not, like Sano or not really isn't relevant. What is relevant is paying him to sit on the bench and not play. While not doing great, he's has hit reasonably well since May, as chronicled. You can't get value from him sitting on the bench and nobody is going to give much value to a guy just sitting on the bench. Also agree whole heartedly on watching as many young arms as we can, Winder, Duran, Ober and Balazovic being among the most important.

How crazy is this season that I want Farrell to get healthy to prove he's worth maybe keeping around? I think, unfortunately, that its time for a healthy Thorpe to just transition to the pen full time and see what he can do. Might be good. But he's got to be healthy first. Winder is just about ready for his ML debut and take lumps if necessary. Barnes gets a deserved shot, but really? Get Winder up after a few more "adjustment" starts. IF Duran is OK health wise soon, he also needs a shot! Getting your feet wet is important, whether you look great or mediocre. It's part of the process. Not going to lie, I just didn't see Balazovic being THIS GOOD THIS SOON after starting the season late. Get him to AAA SOON! Get Sands to St Paul as well. For some reason he's been a forgotten SP prospect. He shouldn't be. Vallimont, IMO, was an absolute steal. But he missed early time this season. He has stuff to work on. But we also see a lot of good thing, He's not a fast track to the ML level, but get him to St Paul ASAP, Really, what journeyman would you want to keep over him? Jax has a shot as a middle man unless he surprises at some point, it's just too bad he had to wait so long to be a full time pro. I think Dobnak, healthy, still has a real shot. I have been so surprised by Ober! I see so much potential if just allowed to learn and grow in a lost season, I get monitoring his IP, but I've seen enough to know I want to see more. I think this kid has a real shot to be at least a backend SP. Canterino should never have been at A+ but I guess the Twins were being conservative early, He comes back soon, get him some IP and move him up ASAP! So far, right now, injuries have been a big bite for a lot of our pitching prospects. The good news is that, so far, oniy Enlow is out. Seems that everyone else is back or nearly back. Let's keep hoping for the best! You can't just promote every single pitcher you want to as a finish to 2021. MLB, in it's "wisdom" decided you can only bring up a couple extra additions. BUT, with trades and the such, there shoukd be a few more open spots to promote and audition at least a few arms. Baseball has changed in regard to the value of RP. And a bullpen doesn't have to be made up of converted SP exclusively. If there is room, and there may be, get a couple of the milb arms up for a shot. At worse, get Neff, Moran and others at least to St Paul to get ready for the future.

The one thing I like about this pick will sound silly on the surface but I believe has real merit is that most of BASEBALL in general, from recruiting to ML scouting, is that the Midwest and especially northern schools get far less attention than CA, TX, and any other warm climate state, including SEC and ACC territories seem to receive. There is real talent available outside the warm weather states. Not everyone wants to spend the time to look. Too many teams want to look at kids who have spring, summer, fall and travel roster games to audition and show themselves. Not every Midwestern kid has time and money to show themselves off the same or join a travel team, Some come from smaller schools and teams, like Miller, and also play other sports. I have no clue how good Miler could be. Nobody does, including the Twins. But good on them for trusting good scouting to watch an undervalued and under appreciated kid with real talent that has big potential. The ML draft reminds me a lot of college football recruiting. So much hype about a 4 star kid when a 3 star, or 2 star....occasionally a WO....was undervalued and turns out to be a STUD.

Were I a little smarter with multiple quotes or just not feeling tired and lazy, lol, and remember/play with how to do it, I would list Dman, Indiana and Vanimal here. ALL great posts. And I HATE playing the "what if I was a player in this situation" game because it's a ridiculous exercise. BUT, here I go. First, I see no way Buxton is traded NOW while recovering from a broken hand, I think we can all agree on that. Secondly, I absolutely agree he and his agents would LOVE for him to prove himself over a full season, or at least close to one. Third, NOBODY can deny the talent and potential. But FOURTH, NOBODY can deny the injury and missed time factor. I can absolutely see how Buxton and his agents would bet on a healthy and productive, maybe amazing, 2022 season. And the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc just line up to sign him to a 6yr $180M deal. But let's be honest for a moment. As crazy as the $ still is for TOP talent, would any team even with deep pockets, put that kind of $ on the line for ONE season? Or more to the point, only the SECOND season where he played more than 120 games? IDK, maybe someone would. But then I am FORCED to put myself in Buck's position, as I grudgingly stated. The Twins offer me say $15-18M with incentives that can bring me up to $20-22M and maybe $25M after year 3. But they offer me an opt out at 30-31yo where I am still young enough to sign a larger deal IF I have in fact suddenly found better luck/health and I'm ready to roll! I have BANKED for myself and my family for 2-3yrs even if my injury history persists. And if it doesn't, I have the option of taking the rest of my deal with the Twins, re-negotating, or choosing the FA route. How do the Twins or Buxton lose on something like this? I HATE playing GM or player roles, but I did it.

Grudgingly I agree. But I have seen enough of Ober that I think there is really something there. And I have no problem with limiting his IP considering past limitations and no 2020, I think the Twins really like him and see something. I keep recalling his first mediocre start where Smalley stated it was one of the best 4IP and 4R allowed start he had ever seen, because he saw a lot to build on. Whether the Twins employ a 6 man rotation or do some piggybacking to finish this year, I could easily see at least 6 SP needing and deserving work after Happ is gone. The Twins are going to stretch Ober as much as they can and build him up for 2022 as a real option. I agree with this approach. I think this kid has a real shot. I think Barnes deserves a shot, Just being honest, I wasn't crazy about his selection so early when drafted. And I have a love affair with LH's! LOL. I just didn't see the potential and still not sure I do. His milb numbers are solid but not great, But he's been promoted fairly aggressively and got a late "second site" look late in 2020. It just feels like he's missing an "it" factor that doesn't allow him the ability to succeed at this point at the ML level. Don't get me wrong velocity isn't everything. And a wicked change is, well, wicked. I just don't know that he has that 3rd or 4th offering to really succeed. You give me him or a healthy Thorpe to transition to the pen...once the "dead arm which really turned out to be injury related" situation gets re-habbed...Im leaning toward Thorpe. But I'm excited and hopeful for the kid. I hope be does well.

Thank you for this! I don't subscribe to the Trib any longer so this was very interesting to hear. I object to any opinion that Buck's statements are just "player speak". If so he could have easily worded his comments differently with something like "it would be great to play with one team your whole career but we'll see what happens." He went way beyond that. And he's NEVER been dishonest in his comments or shown any signs of being a primadonna. And IMO, he's never held anything against the Twins for his "shut down" a few years ago that cost him some service time. Again, IMO, that might have been the best course for his future, But I digress. The problem with signing him is sooo much injury and missed time. The Twins know this, Buxton and his agents know this. Nobody is unintillegent or uninformed here. The question is a balancing act of guaranteed money for both sides that makes sense, very possibly with incentives. But I'm just a fan and not in charge of these things so I'm no going to speculate on the details. An opt out after a couple 2-3yrs could be a very interesting way to get something done that is right and fair for both sides. As a brief aside, considering production, durability, and even projection, I think Berrios is more straightforward. But a fair contract with an opt out in 2-3yrs could be a reasonable option as well.

Nick, a tremendous OP. You are logical in everything you state, complete with the angst of making hard moves that we aren't sure have to be made. I am a fan and a lover of the players on hand. I'd also like to think I'm smart enough and practical enough to look at the larger picture. It's funny how many really good players we COULD trade away, Berrios, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Rogers, Donaldson, etc. So if we have that many good players to trade, boy, it sure looks like we still have a good nucleus to keep and re-tool instead of blowing everything up! Funny how we talk sometimes about going ALL IN and then want to blow it all up after a disappointing year. Forgetting extensions for the moment, I would keep both Berrios and Buxton for 2022 and have the best season we could have with a re-tool. Unload them mid-season if things fall apart. (I don't think that will happen). Keep Rogers as well. The pen needs to be re-worked and we give up our best arm? Again, I'm talking about a good nucleus of talent to rebound and re-tool. I hate losing Cruz. And he MIGHT defy father time another year or two, God bless him. But with other needs, can you bet on a 41/42yo DH for $15+M? No. Let Cruz bring back whatever you can get and let him chase a ring out or respect for his career knowing you won't have him back in 2022. Trade Donaldson if you can for the same reasons, if you don't have to give up too much $. Otherwise, keep him for now and let him transition to the Cruz role of DH and mentor while still playing some in the field. (I think he's gone in some sort of deal). I'd keep Robles because 30yo RP with a quality history and bring it consistently in the mid 90's and have high K rates aren't always easy to find. He was doing just fine until asked to pitch in 4 straight games recently. Trade the expiring contracts and Donalson if you can. Does someone believe in Sano enough to move him? We could get burned on that one, and someone could gloat about what they got. But with options available, maybe it's worth the risk for $ relief for 2022. Give me a quality SP the equivalent of Maeda and Berrios, a decent/quality SS, a solid RH OF who can HOPEFULLY cover CF with Kepler and just be a solid offensive producer overall, a quality RH bullpen arm and a semi-decent extra arm with some proven history, and I'm good. Asking too much? Not really. Trade or FA, the SP costs the most. I'm not asking for Story at SS, just a solid, quality SS until someone else is ready. Simmons, Galvin, SOMEONE?! Tell me we can't find a quality RH OF that won't break the bank? Same with a $5-7M RP to team with Rogers. Quit complaining about the lack of SP produced by the FO. Dobber, who still has potential and gave us a huge boost in 2020, and Ober are just the first wave. You can't just WISH that Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Sands, Enlow, Vallimont, Rijo, etc, will just all be healthy and skip over missing 2020 and be ready to become instant mainstays, much less immediate studs. There is too much talent available here to blow things up and begin again. Keep what you have, make some trade and FA moves to augment what you have, try like hell for extensions for Berrios and Buxton that make sense. But don't implode what you have because of a disappointing season.

I am SO JEALOUS of those who live in the cities to visit Target Field or watch the Saints as they will. (But for a variety of reasons, happy to live in Omaha instead! Lol) For various reasons, not sure the plan of my dad and I journeying up there for this season is going to happen. But I can live vicariously through you and John and everyone else who had a good time and tipped a few back in the LF bleachers this past weekend. Really hope to join you guys soon for a Meltdown and a game. But as I've often stated, the world is just better with baseball, I learned the game in car and transistor radios in my youth from my dad and my own learned knowledge from him. I have fought late night static due to west coast games just to hear what the Twins might do. This season sucks due to expectation. Period, But even though I can't attend....hopefully the Saints here in Omaha for the second half....its just wonderful to have baseball back with fans and hope and disappointment and fun watching young players and dreaming about tomorrow. And that's the beauty of baseball....there is always tomorrow.

Sorry for my language, but screw one bad game. He deserves this! And to echo a previous comment....how about that extension?

BTW, just saw an article about Perez on the Twins MLB site about him and his family. Didn't hardly play as a freshman, covid wiped out most of 2020 as it did for everyone. He literally grew up around baseball as his father is a very successful HS coach who has sent multitudes of players to college and the pro's and his mother is a highly successful head coach of powerhouse UCLA softball and has won multiple championships as a player, asst. coach and head coach. I made the comment he was an athletic diamond in the rough selection previously. Thinking more and more about that. Check out the story.

Just spitballing here, but I think it's a little hard to draft a HS talent right now unless you get them early. So many kids didn't even get to play in 2020 so your evaluation is limited. (This also applies to football and other sports). Additionally, college players have the option of returning to school for an additional season due to covid if they want to, or don't like their selection round and contract offer. And if you draft late, as the Twins are this year, your payout pool is obviously smaller than teams drafting high, You combine all of that, it could be hard to actually save $ by signing someone under slot value to have enough $ left over to take a 3rd day flier on a HS kid at this time. I think the Twins might save a little $ on Miller to be used to sign someone else in the top 10. Unless I missed something, I think every college player drafted has another year open to them if they wish to return. I just don't think there is the $ flexibility to draft a HS player and overpay him right now unless you want to let other draftees walk over a small offer.

Agreed. When Canterino was signed the early reports were that he had thrown more than enough IP to just report to the Ft Myers complex to work out and then be shut down. Instead he actually got to throw a few innings. I would expect something similar here, These kids ALL missed but 2-3 weeks in 2020. A majority didn't get a full, normal schedule in 2021. But a couple weeks to a full month of rest once their seasons were done I'd be surprised if a few of them didn't get at least a few innings in the FCL or at Ft Myers proper.

Think I read there are 7 All Stars this year taken after the 10th round, so while the talent and projections of the selections today might not have the same floors or ceilings as rounds 1-10, these aren't throw away picks in any way. Just looking at programs, numbers, upside and overall balancing of positions, I think I like what the Twins did today. More arms! I'm good with that, especially considering this wasn't supposed to be a great draft and it was reportedly heaviest in college arms. Birdsell is all about projection. Barely played as a freshman and 2020 was a washout for everyone after a couple of weeks. And then has a rotator cuff issue in his ONLY "full" season. He is clay to mold and all about health and projection. His write up says high velocity and nice slider, I would bet he gets a shot at starting initially to work, get innings, hopefully find a decent 3rd offering and ends up in the pen. I have no problem with a big arm flier in the 11th for the pen. I also have no problem with Nowlin as a small school LH with high K numbers as a RP in tbe 19th. Not all RP have to be converted starters. I just have no clue what to expect from the other 4 RP selected. I'm sure the Twins see arms and projection to work with and each offers up something different. Time will tell. But Festsa from Seton Hall HAS to be interesting, At 6' 6" and only 185lbs...if even close to accurate...you would think maturity and work would have the college junior over 200lbs in a couple of years. With any kind of control and secondary offerings you'd have to expect additional velocity will be coming. Maybe he's a shorter Ober?? Two more infielders today from decent programs/conferences. Perez has played some SS and 3B in addition to being 2B. He didn't hit AT ALL in his first full starting season but lead UCLA in HR with 11?! Hmmm...interesting. And he can draw BB? I'm guessing here but an athlete who hasn't come close to his potential yet? Meanwhile Neuse from TX Tech has hit, has a high OB and SB speed and production drafted a couple picks later. Again, pure speculation from me, but Perez is the untapped athlete with higher ceiling and Neuse is the more proven player but locked in at 2B as a table setter option? Absolutely fine with a 3rd catcher being picked. The last couple of years the Twins have drafted and signed quite a few catchers and have transitioned a couple guys behind the plate. The system is not devoid of catchers and a few have potential. But beyond Jeffers and Rortvedt, they are all young and at A ball. It's an important position that is often underrated. Defense and working with the staff is most important. But finding a few guys who can actually produce offensively is like finding gold. So drafting 3 out of 20 is fine by me. I look forward to learning more about Fedko, the OF from UConn. How good is his defense, range and arm? Because his triple slash this past season is impressive, even in a non power BB league. Apparently he has some power and decent speed as well. So just exactly who is he? Anxious to know. Call me crazy, and I like how the Twins spread things around for 21 picks, but I'm kinda disappointed they only took ONE OF. But then again, past drafts, trades and international signings, they have added a nice handful of OF options so maybe I shouldn't be surprised. I really liked the 2019 draft as I thought it brought in a lot of talent that we are just really starting to see now as those players either didn't play in 2020 or got a half season or less. I wasn't crazy about what they did in 2020 with their handful of selections, but remain hopeful. Unless I'm missing something, Soularie and Raya have yet to see the field. But I like the balance of choices over the past 3 drafts and the early returns from 2019 thus far.