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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Just a couple side notes: 1] I have no idea right now without looking back at previous handbooks, or reading the new one comjng out, or doing exhaustive research, etc, what Fatherstone or Funderburk throw. But you don't have the K numbers they had this year if you don't have SOMETHING to offer in regard to velocity and breaking pitches. Seems jts all about control and refinement with them. 2] I remember Featherstone transitioning to the mound after his rookie half year as a position player. But I had completely forgotten he had TJ surgery and missed 2yrs PLUS the 2020 season. To miss all that time and yet pitch at A+ in 2021 with success and a high K rate is pretty remarkable, even with a high BB rate. 3] For some bizarre reason, I thought Laweryson was drafted earlier than 2019. I guess memory fails sometimes, LOL. He appeared in 10 games his rookie year at Elizabethton, 6 GS before I GS at CR. He then, like everyone, missed 2020 and jumped to A+ CR this year with mixed results in 15 games. His ERA was high but his other numbers were solid, including high K numbers. The more I look at and reflect on this group of "marginal" prospects who are all outside the top 30 prospect lists with the exception of Wallner, the more curious and interested I become. I'm expecting nothing from Bechtold, sorry to say. I have some hope that the athletic Helman will blossom. But more and more I'm seeing a real plan for the pitchers here. They are "asking" Funderburk and Featherstone to prove they are ready for Wichita next year. And they are asking Laweryson to follow the Gross and Gipson-Long path of later round draftees who have a SOMETHING to work with and develop. I hate to just repeat my previous comments about this group being "interesting" and agreeing they are all "show me" prospects, but the more I look and reflect the more I'm intrigued. I think the FO is being very deliberate with the arms they sent to AFL, knowing what they already have with the arms they didn't send.
- 17 replies
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- matt wallner
- zach featherstone
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Twins Daily 2021 Awards: Most Valuable Player
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Easy choice. And he may never again reach some of the numbers he hit this season. So what?! HR might decrease, doubles might increase, BA might go up, etc. This guy is a STUD. And we've seen glimpses of what he can do before and we shouldn't really be surprised. And while it's OK if the roster construction going forward has him as an occasional backup SS, he needs to remain at 2B. He's good there and only going to get better. In the history of MLB, SS and CF were defensive positions. And then things changed in the 80's and beyond when we began to see amazing athletes take over those positions to change the game and our perceptions. But for some reason, we still hold on to archaic beliefs that 2B is where you just "stash" a guy who can't play SS. Talk to Whitaker, White, Knoblauch and other amazing 2B along with Altuve and Dozier and tell me a 2B can't be an important player in a crucial position daily. This guy is a STUD. Keep him at 2B, and maybe a backup SS depending on how the roster shakes out. He can be a fixture for the next several years.- 5 replies
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- jorge polanco
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With the exception of Wallner, this AFL group does seem light on prospect status. But I find this group to be "interesting". I agree with jmlease1 that this is very much a "show me" group. But I'm kinda OK with that after the lost 2020 year and who these guys are. Funderburk and Laweryson are 2018 and '19 selections that need IP. One is a high K LH RP and the other a SP. Again, they need IP to get ready for 2022. They wouldn't be here if the Twins weren't looking at each moving up at least a full level in 2022. Featherstone is a bit older, but a recent convert to the pen after being drafted initially as a position player, much like Gore. He is absolutely a "show me" something high K arm who again needs IP. Helman and Bechtold are very similar while being very different at the same time. Both are a little long in the tooth prospect wise, but each is again "interesting". Helman is a 2B/CF who mostly played the OF this past season. He is a good athlete with speed and power potential he began to really show this year. But the bat hasn't fully played yet. This is his opportunity to show he's ready for AA in 2022 or maybe get passed by. Bechtold has always been reputed as being an excellent defensive 3B who has also played some 1B and a little 2B. As a JC draftee he dominated his rookie half season and then slid production-wise. The power seemed to come in 2021 even though the bat lagged a bit. He also began to work behind the plate between games in order to utilize his arm and increase his versatility. I believe he got a one game start behind the plate at the end of the season. Don't be surprised if you see him behind the plate in a few games. Not a great group. I do believe the Twins are being cautious with some arms they COULD have sent. But I think they are being very deliberate in the arms they sent to AZ to see if they can improve and make the next step. I was excited when Bechtold was first drafted, but an OK rebound in 2021 doesn't excite me. The more athletic Helman interests me. But really, I'm watching Wallner and the arms to see what they might do. Not an exciting group to be sure. But there is some interest here.
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- matt wallner
- zach featherstone
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I'd like to address Chief's comment directly. But I would add Donaldson to the "has to go list" along with Kepler and Sano. At least in theory. (I'd disagree on Arraez because I think he fills a role that nobody currently can as the team is constructed). I am not going to re-hash my previous post, which was basically I'm not sure trading anyone from the ML roster makes sense as there are enough question marks to go along with real hope and projection to be excited. For example, I think Kirilloff is going to be great and I think Larnach is going to be very good. But how easy/ready are we to replace Kepler? If you already need to, hopefully, find a better 4th OF than Cave, now you might need someone even better if Max is gone. Further, any sort of "consistency" from the inconsistent Sano is still something productive and dangerous that I would love to hitting in the 6-7 spot regularly. And then there remains the debate about CAN you trade Donaldson, and what would it cost in $ to do so, and do you get enough back via $ relief and/or a player to make it worthwhile? But Chief is 100% correct that unless you are prepared to begin the 2022 season "heavy" with positional depth, even without a set DH, you still have a hard time finding room for everyone. Now, that's a good problem to have for sure. Kirilloff is READY, whether at 1B, or the OF, or both. But we need room for Arraez. We need room for Garver to DH some. Sano plays 1B and DH. How soon will Larnach be ready? Day One? A month in? And even IF Miranda starts 2022 at St Paul due to a roster crunch, you will have to make room soon if not immediately. Pitching is the issue, and we all know that. And sometimes "room" just happens organically due to injuries and the such. So I do think "room" may have to be made just to balance the roster and include SOMEONE in a deal for pitching. I don't like weakening the lineup at this time with optimism but question marks on hand. It would be my hope that another Odorizzi/Maeda trade from within the system would bring in #2 SP...unlesswe double dip in the FA market. (I'm not including Pineda as I think he's a done deal on a $8M-ish already). But I am thinking the Twins may have to make room by moving SOMEONE as part of a deal to provide opportunity for the talent on hand and be able to utilize it properly.
- 74 replies
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- miguel sano
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Twins Daily 2021 Awards: Pitcher of the Year
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've always been a huge fan of Berrios and really miss him. Not going to take this space to comment at all about whether be should have been moved except to say I do understand why be was, and the haul was excellent. While I think there are some very intriguing options out there to "replace" him, maybe even very effectively, I do think there is a segment of the fan base that never fully appreciated how good he is/was and may change their opinion now that he's gone. Not sure I can say anything more about Ober that hasn't already been said, or that I haven't already said myself. But all the hard work, adjustments made on the fly during the season, he's just a great story. And I think he's a keeper though I'm uncertain of his ceiling. But what he did isn't just a SSS at this juncture. I'm not that concerned about his HR totals as a] he was a rookie and b] when you keep free passes down, HR and XBH don't hurt you so much. And while his ERA isn't outstanding, without an exact number in front of me I'd bet he's at least a quarter run per below the AL average.- 5 replies
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- jose berrios
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Huge ^5 to the posts above I liked! Very good takes, even if I don't agree 100%. I agree Donaldson should have been included in the OP. He can't be ignored as a trade piece due to depth and replacement options. His biggest problems as a trade option are obvious and we all know them; age, injury and salary. I am and have always been OK with moving him if the right deal, presents itself. But there is also the idea of how little he may bring back prospect wise and salary relief wise vs being a good ballplayer and veteran presence and "red ass" who could bring a little fire to the team. It's not just about finding room for Miranda and others to play. A lot of times these things just work out over a full season. We've seen this over and again. But having too much talent is NOT a bad thing! That's when your manager FINDS ways to get guys in the lineup. Which is easier without a fixture at DH, which I believe will be the case in 2022. Please trade Donaldson IF IT MAKES SENSE for what you gain vs what you lose. So why do I start with Donaldson? Because keeping him or moving him affects the rest of the roster and the others proposed here in the OP. A healthy Kepler is way better than what we saw in 2021. Unless someone blows us away, you are selling low. He is a premium RF defensively and a solid CF with power who just needs to sit more against LH pitching. Despite my belief in Kirilloff, Larnach and Celestino, all other OF options are solid journeyman or prospects a year away. Garver is a good, not great, solid catcher who is one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He needs to catch 50-60% of the games and spend time at DH and maybe even a little 1B to keep his bat in the lineup. I think Jeffers has a bright future, but I'm not ready to give him the #1 spot right now and move Garver. As has been pointed out by others in various threads, you don't necessarily get better by trading someone who is amongst the best at his position. Arraez may be the best pure hitter and clutch hitter and OB hitter on the team. And with a team of talented producers with BIG TIME power you'd want to trade the BEST pure hitter, contact hitter, and OB guy? He's only 24yo and has basically 2yrs at MLB. He's OK defensively at 3 positions and can also DH. Again, why does a DH have to be ONE GUY? He will only get better, I propose, defensively with experience. He fills a needed spot in the lineup as something different than a 3 outcome player. The Sano debate has been ongoing for a few years now. You're either done with him, or, you recognize his career OPS and how dangerous he is as a streaky producer but would just love to see him as a lower fixture in the lineup as a 1B/DH and "emergency" 3B and want to hold on to him for at least one more year because he can carry a team at times. Look, I am NOT opposed to making trades to re-tool the roster. Not at all! I just don't feel moving Kepler or Garver or Arraez at this time makes roster and production sense. I think those moves potential hurt as much as they help. I'm OK with moving Donaldson and Sano if it makes sense. I think the FO WILL make some FA moves. I think they WILL make some trades. But when you make trades, you have to give up something to get something! But I'm tired of the Twins traded Gil, or Yanoa, both low A prospects to get something they thought could help the team. Doesn't every team, even the best and smartest teams, still make deals of prospects in hope of augmenting their roster? I just keep reflecting on the Odorizzi and Maeda trades. Can this FO do it a 3rd time? They need to find a quality veteran and spend the $ to lead this team and Stoman is the obvious choice. But isn't there enough milb depth to make a similar move without depleting the ML roster?
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- miguel sano
- max kepler
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Twins Daily 2021 Awards: Most Improved
DocBauer replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My only quibble is the "improved" part of the conversation. IMO, Polanco was a "rebound" winner, with Garver finishing 2nd, because we've already seen what he can do when healthy. Yes, I'm splitting hairs, but I think he's always been awfully good when healthy and ready to go. I think I would have voted Buxton, despite the time he missed. He's been growing and developing each of the past couple of years...despite the missed time...until he just turned in to a DOMINATE presence in 2021. IF he's still around in 2022...and I sure hope he is....(I think he will be)...and if he's healthy enough for 120-140 games....(knock on wood or anything hard)....he might just be the Twins #3 or #4 hitter. Ahh, but to dream.....- 4 replies
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- caleb thielbar
- jorge polanco
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Twins Daily 2021 Awards: Rookie of the Year
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Outstanding Nick! That was fun! Well written! Of course Ober is the slam dunk winner. How he re-built his delivery in 2020 for increased velocity and smoother mechanics for greater durability is a great story. Further, he and Johnson continued to tweak his approach and delivery during his rookie season as well. I'm really impressed with the kid. How good can he be? Time will tell. But I think he's very possibly headed for a nice career as a #3-4 SP. I was also very impressed with Kirilloff rebounding after his poor ST. He just needs to be healthy. Guy is going to be a good one. Larnach was rushed, like a few others, and really flashed initially. Should we be surprised? I don't think so. Nor should we be surprised that he then struggled. I still have a lot of hope and confidence going forward. But will he be ready to start day one in 2022? Mmmm...I hope so but wouldn't be surprised to see him begin the year over in St Paul. The "arguement" for Gordon says it all. Very Happy for the young man! He has overcome a LOT. Now he just needs to gain 10-15lbs before next season and continue what he's been doing. I was wary of Jeffers repeating what he did in 2020. I've seen enough at this point to be pretty optimistic about his future. I don't think there is anything to add in regard to Ryan. Can I toss out a couple honorable mentions or "at a boys"? Celestino and Rortvedt were never supposed to play at the ML level this year. But I think watching them you can see talent and potential. Celestino took what he learned to St Paul and finished strong. Rortvedt not so much, but you saw glimpses of ability and potential. And finally, while others will disagree with me, and that's fine, Jax had moments and games where he actually showed potential. He also was not supposed to be in ML ball this year. The FB is OK and the slider shows some nice stuff. I have no idea what his future holds, probably in the pen, but there is enough there to keep him around and see.- 14 replies
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- bailey ober
- alex kirilloff
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Making Sense of the Edwar Colina Decision
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I just don't understand the timing, like everyone else. But it would make some sense they were trying to sneak him through while nobody was looking. I watched the interview with Falvey after my original shock and angst and found myself looking at the situation a bit differently. While we have heard ZERO specifics, and probably never will, it appears painfully obvious that his 2022 is in doubt. And while the Twins HAVE to make moves via FA and trade to augment and change portions of the team, they also need 40 man spots to do so, as well as protecting a handful of some quality kids in the system. Remember, Enlow has to be protected and is coming off surgery. Hopefully he will be ready to take the mound at some point in 2022, but when? And Maeda also has to be protected. Right there are 2 pitchers taking up 2 spots that can't be counted on for much of anything at this point. Not sure there is room for. 3rd. I'm disappointed and frustrated, but I'm starting to see the logic here. -
Twins Catcher May Be Marlins Perfect Catch
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
On paper this sounds like a good idea. But in reality I don't like it. I think Garver's bat is just too important to move. Echoing previous comments, his bat is needed and he should be spending time at DH as well going forward, something I've been championing for some time. I could buy in to trading Jeffers with someone else to make a move like thus, even though I hate to lose him as I think he has a bright future. If that was done, we'd need to bring in another backup, preferably LH, as I just don't think Rortvedt is ready yet. I keep reflecting on the Odorizzi and Maeda trades and want to believe they can pull another rabbit out of their cap for a solid starter, along with a FA signing, using some milb depth. -
Grading Rocco Baldelli’s First Losing Season
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While I'm a little late to the party, I have to toss my $.02 in to the conversation. And I'm giving Rocco an overall grade of a C, maybe a C+. But I'm splitting my grade with a D in the first half and a B in the second half. I don't put all the blame on Baldelli for April and May. I don't blame him for injuries. I don't blame him for Colome because as bad as he was, you had to believe in his history and I'm sure it was believed he would quickly figure things out. (Of course, he did, but not until around June). Where I find fault with Baldelli was some strange pitching moves and player substitions that often made no sense. While SP often only work 5 or 6 innings at a time now...and I'm sure there was a sense of protecting arms for the duration of the season after only a 60 game one in 2020...there were a few games when someone was rolling pretty well and should have been stretched another inning. And while poor play/performance falls on the players primarily, as a manager part of your job is to make sure your guys are mentally ready to go. And there were just too many mistakes and errors and ineptitude those first months. And why on earth do you speak about Bell's desire/opinion to have Arraez, your best over "hitter" and OB threat being a fixture in the #1 spot but then not do it? The team played much better the second half. And they didn't quit. As a squad, they seem to enjoy playing together and seem to like playing for Rocco. I think it's incorrect and perhaps a little naive to say they played better because their season was over and they had no pressure on them. It would be very easy to be out of contention so early and just lose interest or become frustrated. And there was no fighting, no back-stabbing, nobody ever got thrown under a bus. A lot of the crazy mistakes we saw the first few months disappeared. And without their best bat and best two pitchers, and a rotation that was cobbled together, they simply worked better as an overall team. So that's my opinion and my grade. -
Agreed. But as I just posted previously, how do we feel this same time next year...maybe mid-year...when Celestino, Waller, Steer, Julian and others have some more time under their belts? Instructionals and another normal full milb season could easily change a lot of things. There are a LOT of kids I have my eye on from AA on down to the FCL. (I still can't get used to the FCL name). Prospect lists and milb rankings could change a lot by this time next year, including depth of positional players.
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- jose miranda
- louie varland
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A well written OP! And I mostly agree with everything stated. 1] While there has been some gnashing of teeth as to the Twins not selecting a P in the 1st round, I think the early results of the past few drafts have shown this FO and their scouting department have a good eye identifying arms from the 2nd round on. Not including some great to very interesting arms acquired in trades, they've brought on the likes of Enlow, Sands, Canterino, Verlander, Gipson-Long and others. The only bummer/downside is one that has seemingly affected most teams in that we are dealing with injuries as well as a lost 2020. I could care less about other organizations, but the Twins plan of bridging the gap from what was on hand to prospects got a big, heavy monkey wrench tossed in to the middle of the plan. Still, there is so much depth and potential it's hard to not be excited about what's coming up the next couple of years. 2] I am going to disagree somewhat on the offensive talent in the system. While I agree an infusion of additional offensive talent might be needed, there is a difference between lack of talent and a "gap" in talent. By that I mean to state the obvious that Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers and Rooker...despite SSS and what anyone's opinion of their potential might be...more or less "graduated" to MLB. (With things to still prove to be sure). We also saw Rortvedt and Celestino get promoted too early, but will hopefully take their experiences and grow along with the others. The Twins made a pretty concentrated effort over the past 2 or 3 drafts to bring in position players, especially in the infield. Steer and Julian are a part of those drafts. And while there may be some question as to where they will play, they are both showing versatility and mad offensive skills/potential. Holland from Auburn and Cavaco and Gray, Helman, and Mack are a collection who have all played a max of 2yrs thus far with mixed results thus far. They've also drafted OF like Keirsey, Garry Jr., Waller and Rosario since 2018 who have, again, barely played. We can also add in Sabato and Soularie as infield/OF options recently added to the system. Then you have to look at recent international signings from the past 2yrs who have only just hit the states. So while I think...without ignoring the mound...the Twins would be smart to add some additional offensive talent, I don't think they've been sleeping on adding positional talent. The only "problem" is a "gap" of positional talent created, in part, by the lost 2020 season. We have to remember the 2018 picks got a short season, and then 1 full year before sitting for a season. The 2019 picks got a half year to play pro ball. Period. The 2020 picks got nothing but instructs at best. Just saying, by this time next year we could be looking at the offensive potential of position player depth very differently after another instructional league and a second full season of milb. IMO, the problem may not be talent, but bad timing and the aforementioned "gap" that was created.
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Is Brent Rooker Better Than His Stats?
DocBauer commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
I'm taking a strange, opposite approach here. Rooker has always been declared as a solid athlete since drafted, and throughout his milb career, with a decent arm. This has been referenced to some degree in the OP. So why has that not translated? Has he just not worked hard enough at it? Or does he just not have good recognition skills? After watching such OF as Willingham and Young play the OF, I have the belief Rooker has room to improve defensively just through work and repitition. But his bat has to be his calling card, whether he is a DH or role player. He MIGHT be running out of time after a productive and exciting SSS in 2020. He sure didn't seem to take advantage in 2021 with the opportunities presented to him. But with a little 20/20 vision used, as well as some of the positives listed in the OP, he has clearly demonstrated in his milb career that each promotional level he has needed a little time to settle in, figure some things out, and then rake. Now, he hasn't exactly done the same thing at the ML level to be sure! And maybe he won't. But it's the hardest last step to make. I could see him being included in a package, especially to a team hurting for a semi-young power bat to add to their offense and willing to give him 400-500 AB. But I think he's talented enough I'd keep him on the 40 and continue working with him. -
The world of a RP is volatile to be sure. Some arms die early, sometimes very early. Some arms seem to die and then try something different or take a different approach and find a 2nd life. A precious few are just great for almost their entire career. IMO, Duffey is SIMILAR to point #2. He won't turn 31yo, I believe, until December. There is no question he was mediocre the 1st half of the year. And I don't have his numbers in front of me, other than the team's last 30 games, but he seemed to turn a corner the 2nd half. His velocity seemed to increase lately as well, I've also seen and heard that he changed his off speed approach a bit. There was an interesting interview with Rogers lately where he spoke about changes Duffey made this season which lead to his better 2nd half. I think the Twins are counting on him and I would as well. I would do a 2yr with an inexpensive 3rd year option.
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Basking in Buxton’s Season
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Do I think Buxton has just had some bad luck? Absolutely. Do I also think his body, from a purely physiological standpoint may be more prone to injury? Absolutely that could be a possibility. And these two ideas aren't necessarily, potentially, mutually exclusive. It could be a portion of both. We just don't know and there is no statistic or measurement that can give us a definitive answer. Might as well ask a Magic 8 Ball for an answer. IMO, part of the discussion here is past reality vs hope. And that's fine. I have tremendous hope that Buxton WILL be healthier and have better luck going forward. And I'm 100% on board with an extension! And I repeat it's tweaking/changing the incentives and not the up front money that is the issue. And again, if the team has to pay him for an successful and incentive laden season they would be ecstatic to do so. But I DO want to make a statement that was brought up about other athletes and injury situations. To his credit, Buck has worked hard to gain good weight and muscle for his bat and his endurance. He has made changes in his defensive approach to help avoid physical abuse on "hard" contact plays and it seems to have helped. And I am NOT necessarily speaking about Buxton when I say this, but while speed MAY diminish somewhat, a large number of athletes truly hit their physical prime in regard to strength, explosiveness and endurance between the ages of 27-32. Again, I'm not speaking of Buck specifically, I'm just saying it happens a lot. And maybe, just maybe, it could offer a little glimmer of hope for him along with his hard work, experience, changes, and maybe even, yes, a little better luck. He should get 6 or 7yrs at around $15M with incentives that aren't unreasonable or hard to reach if he's just healthy and should "add up" to around $25-30M ish. And if you want to add an extra $5-10M for an MVP trophy, wouldn't the Twins be fine with that as well if it happened? -
Game Score: Twins 4, Royals 0
DocBauer replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One of Jax's performances to end the season. Good for him! I think he is, unfortunately, a victim of circumstance. Not sure everyone realizes or appreciates that when the Twins drafted him they thought the military obligation was going to change at that time. It didn't for about 3yrs. So he barely pitched until 2018 when he got a half season and 2019 he finally got a full year. And then, of course he lost2020 like so many others. He's actually been promoted rather aggressively, all things considered, but will be 27yo when 2022 starts. But I think the arm talent, maturity and intelligence are there mixed with so-so results and coaching as well as adjustments made on the fly that he's protected going forward. Whether a SP or BP option, I think he's a late blooming option that has a possible future and deserves to be kept and protected. Not his fault he's been behind the 8 ball to start his career initially. I think there's something worthwhile to still work with.- 12 replies
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Basking in Buxton’s Season
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is the key! Reports are two-fold. 1] He wants to stay. 2] There was, reportedly, at least some agreement on the BASE salary but questions about the incentive targets. He is STILL young. He is immensely talented, He has grown so much as a hitter. Any decline in some of his speed the next few seasons DOES NOT diminish his value as a quality defender or hitter and producer. (See Puckett). Let me state and propose the following; between base salary and incentives reached by just being healthy, do you think ownership would blink/balk in the SLIGHTEST at Byron earning $25-28M in a season? No way! It would mean they had one of the best and most dynamic players in the game, Great publicity. Butts in the seats. And a player probably leading a team to the playoffs. The initial want and need seems to be in place on both sides, Get it done! Period. -
Looking Back at Michael Pineda’s Twins Tenure
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think, and have thought for a while now, he's a done deal. While I don't have any clue if there have been any negotiations between both parties I would lay real money there has at least been conversation. Personally, I never had a problem with him not being traded at the deadline. The Twins wanted and needed a veteran presence in their rotation, which we saw, and which they openly spoke about. One thing that I think escapes memory is Pineda was really one of the first creative moves this FO made to rebuild the rotation, while needing time to rebuild the milb structure. Signing him to rehab and get ready for the next year was inventive and WORKED, The entire diaretic discussion and suspension is water under the bridge. What happened was unfortunate to be sure, but should have no bearing on what he's actually done when on the mound. Once he was healthy in 2019, it took him little time to fit in and find himself. And at times, he was the Twins best SP. His lack of opportunity in 2020 was not related to injury but rather the suspension and a short season. In limited action, he was again very good. Yes he had some injury issues this past year. And yes, some of his numbers and velocity slipped a bit. But some of his numbers were as good or better than his previous production in a Twins uniform. He is experienced, and seems to have a bulldog mentality on the mound. He's been adapting. I am ABSOLUTELY NOT comparing him directly, but he sort of has the Maddux ability to learn and adapt. I know he's getting a little older, but he's not ancient or over the hill, And I dismiss his 2021 injuries to a SMALL extent as we've seen a HUGE rise in pitcher injuries at both the ML and Milb level this past year post 2020. I do not expect 180IP in 2022, but I think 150-160IP is reasonable to hope for. I think he's an easy $8M-ish deal as a #3-4SP depending how Ryan and Ober perform. At worst, he's still depth and quality when healthy to bridge the gap for the prospects to get ready and get their feet wet. -
What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
After reading some of the other posts here, I felt the need to add to my previous one. We won the central twice with Polanco at SS, and give me all the numbers and metrics you want but my eye said he wasn't the disaster some say he was there. But he's just so much better at 2B and continues to grow. Its also easier on his ankles and the last thing we need is to take an absolute stud at a position an move him somewhere where he is less effective and could put greater strain on his ankles. High Heat summed up the lineup rather succinctly; guys get hurt and your initial lineup/roster construction will vary throughout the year. It's a GOOD THING to have more talent than roster spots! Your 13 man player roster will need to be expanded out to about 18-20 guys before the season is done. And the "problem" the Twins have offensively is not really MORE offense, just better health and more CONSISTENCY. C] Garver/Jeffers with Rortvedt at AAA. (Astudillo if around). Garver also takes turns at DH to keep his bat in the lineup. 1B] Kirilloff/Sano/Miranda/Astudillo/maybe some Garver: AK can still play the OF and Sano can DH 2B] Polanco/Arraez/Gordon/Miranda SS] FA/Polanco/Gordon (need a good glove at AAA just in case) 3B] Donaldson/Miranda/Arraez/Astudillo/Gordon LF] Larnach/Arraez/Kirilloff/4th OF TBD/Rooker/Gordon/maybe Miranda/Celestino CF] Buxton/Kepler/Gordon/maybe 4th OF TBD/Celestino RF] Kepler/Larnach/4th OF TBD/AK/Gordon/Celestino DH] Donaldson/Sano/Arraez/Garver Unless I just forgot how to count, that's 19 guys for 13 spots and depth. Rortvedt and Celestino and probably Rooker begin the year in St Paul. (IMO, Rooker is protected over Refsnyder and Garlik each of whom I'd love back on a milb deal). My roster includes a FA SS TBD, as well as a RH 4th OF who may or may not be a CF option, (I hope he is). I've been banging tbat drum for some time now and will continue to do so. It's very possible the Twins will look for a proven corner option allowing Kepler and Gordon to be the backups. Further, they could just blow off my opinion all together, LOL, and stick with the RH options already on hand. But you see how easily the numbers work out for the roster and depth, right? And YES, I'm including Astudillo for now. I fully recognise he might not be protected due to the numbers game. And if NOT protected, I would also love to have him back on a milb deal. IMO, left unprotected, someone would try to sign him for his versatility and his intangibles. I also think he'd rather stick with the Twins on a milb deal, maybe a split deal, vs going elsewhere. The whole point is, there is a lot of talent available here to have a good roster for 2022, albeit a couple young guys still proving themselves and fitting in. Larnach is a perfect example. He is just so close to proving he's ready, but might not break camp. And let's use AK as a comp for Miranda for 2022. For whatever reason, Kirilloff just had a lousy ST even though be was virtually handed a job. So he went down. He sure looked ready a month later and rocked it before a 2nd wrist injury curtailed his year. I believe in Miranda, like AK, 100%. But does he have to be handed a job? No. Again, having too much talent and depth is a GOOD THING. And to further repeat myself, I am NOT saying the Twins shouldn't/can't/won't trade someone off the roster for pitching help. But if they bring back Pineda, which I believe they will, they ABSOLUTELY have the $ available to bring in Stoman to front the rotation for the next 3-5yrs. And he's durable enough, proven enough, and been tied to the Twins for a couple of years now. Makes so much sense it's scary. That leaves ONE rotation spot to be filled via FA or trade. But when I have seen how "little" the FO spent to bring in Odorizzi and Maeda, I have to question whether we actually have to disrupt the ML roster to do so. I'd like to keep the roster as intact as possible. Miranda WILL get opportunity and force his way, even if he's not on the roster day one. I'd just really like the FO spend a few $M for 2 rotation spots, a little help in the pen, my preference for a 4th OF, and THEN look at the options available to them like a spreadsheet for the 3rd SP they need. Can they pull a rabbit out of the hat a 3rd time by trading within the system for a solid rotation addition? Or will the market deliver someone to them to fill that last spot? There is work to do! But Miranda will get his shot, no doubt! It all comes down to how big of a re-tool we are looking at. Because there is a lot to like looking at 2022.- 52 replies
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- jose miranda
- josh donaldson
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What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Agree that Donaldson is a positive for the Twins both offensively and defensively. He also provides a certain degree of leadership as well as experience. Now, if he suddenly wants out or is disgruntled and could be a disruptive presence, then you do all you can to move him. Arguing about his health is pointless on a couple levels. No player is of value when out with injury. And if Donaldson is such a risk, even after been largely healthy and available this year, then wouldn't other teams ha e to consider that in regard to trade talks? I'm not saying don't trade him if a good/smart deal comes along. But how much $ do you have to throw in to get him moved for virtually nothing in return? And how much $ do you actually save to make a difference, especially compared to his potential value you are now losing? It's just not as simple/easy as saying ",move him". When the Twins add a SS...and hopefully a quality RH 4th OF...it's really easy to see a player roster of up to 18 players to roll through during the season. A lot of times these things just seem to work themselves out. I can't wait to see Miranda. And I'd like him playing daily or close. But unless 2022 is a true lost re-tool situation/opportunity, nothing wrong with having the most talent you can, the most depth you can, and work Miranda in rather than just handing him a guaranteed job.- 52 replies
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- jose miranda
- josh donaldson
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Game Score: Twins 5, Tigers 2
DocBauer replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Unless they spend $6-8M on someone they like better, Pineda will be back as a veteran #3-4 part of the rotation. He's not special. But when on the mound, he's been good to very good for 3yrs now. PLEASE find a way to agree on an extension for Buxton. At some point you have to gamble a bit in hope of winning. The kid just dominates and makes a difference in so many ways when he's in the lineup. Again, it's a bit of a gamble. But you just have to find a way to make it work. Polanco is a STUD! PERIOD! Amazing how this team has played .500 ball and beaten or held serve against top teams since trading away our top hitter and pitcher. This confirms what I've felt for some time now. 1] Real money spent on ONE GUY, probably Stoman, to head your rotation. 2] Trade or splurge on a 1yr deal for a #2, but keep the roster in place. 3] With apologies to our current coaches, but bring in someone who can communicate a different approach other than bombas. Homers are awesome! But we can't just live by ONE big inning. The talent on hand, including a healthy Kirilloff as well as Larnach and Miranda coming up, is fine. And K's are just part of today's game. But there just HAS to be a way to take the talent on hand and provide more efficiency. 4] I have issues with some things Rocco has done. Never more than this season. I think he's still growing in to his position. But PLEASE, give him a bench coach with experience who can get in his ear and advise him on a few things he might not be seeing clearly. I think Shelton did that. I think Bell might have been that guy. And I don't know who THE GUY might be, but Rocco needs a smart, maybe veteran guy, who he can respect to hold the reigns a bit.- 20 replies
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- jorge polanco
- michael pineda
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Has Miguel Sanó Increased His Trade Value?
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would be lying if I said Sano hasn't been a disappointment based on talent, projection and ability. Injuries, similar to Buxton, have curtailed a portion of his career numbers as well. But speaking of career numbers, let's just pause to look again at his career slash line. .237/.328/.818 Mediocre BA, solid OB and big power. Despite a losing 2021 for the team, and a really disappointing first couple of months for Sano in particular, he's got 23 Dbls, 29 HR and 71 RBI. And as the OP states he's been a much better hitter since the first few months. Has he increased his trade value? The answer is NO. The Twins, and everyone else in MLB, know who Sano is. Healthy, he's generally a .240-.250 hitter with a decent OB and tremendous power. He will slump and he will destroy. But he is not the guy, usually, you want daily in the 4-5 spot. But he is very dangerous, despite his streaky nature, as a 6-7 hitter. Is it possible at 28yo that there is room for improvement? Call me crazy but I believe there is. His new-found mentor Cruz never found himself until age 28/29. And I am NOT saying Sano will be anything close to Cruz going forward! NOR am I suggesting in any way he could suddenly be another "lost" Ortiz. BUT, I will say that mental, emotional maturity is different for everyone. We are STILL seeing Sano trying to tweak his approach. He seems to be SLOWLY recognizing that at times he needs to attack early vs being patient. Were he just to accept and follow a similar path as Cruz, he would mentally accept being a DH and part-time 1B and work and study and find a balance of aggressiveness vs laying off the crazy outside stuff. Again, has he improved his trade value? Not really. Teams know who and what he is. His trade value is about two things: 1] With a universal DH, which should happen in 2022, there could be a number of teams who would love to have him as a DH/1B and emergency 3B who could give them something in the lower half of their lineup they just don't have currently. He could be a great 2nd part of a trade. 2] As part of point #1, his value could increase because a team really believes their coaching their approach, and their belief he's STILL making adjustments and figuring it out could unlock another level of sustained success. And as Ash pointed out, if there is a chance for real growth and potential, then isn't his value better just to keep and see? I'd trade him if the value is there. But I'd keep him for now and see what happens in 2022. -
Well deserved! And probably an easy choice with how well he threw this year. Just a few comments/observations: 1] Take a moment to look at the numbers for all 6 guys again like I did. Sure, a WHiP or two is a little higher than we'd like, Gipson-Long's ERA is a little high but was inflated by some early bad performances, but the overall numbers for each guy are quality, and the K's are definitely there! 2] Realize this impressive list doesn't even include Duran, Canterino or Enlow, filled with potential but injury plagued in 2021. Further, for various reasons, there is no Ober, Ryan or any other of the arms recently acquired with real talent. Kind of makes you excited for the next few years doesn't it? 3] The 2020 draft was what it was, short and no opportunity for anyone to play. Unless I'm mistaken, 5 of the 6 listed here were 2018-2019 draft choices. Despite limited milb experience, and a lost 2020, there is some aggressive promotion taking place here and, apparently, some good drafting taking place. I am very excited about the arms in the system in a way I haven't been for YEARS!
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- louie varland
- ben gross
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As far as a roster spot, yes, these things take care of themselves. He may or may not break camp with the Twins, but he will play for the Twins in 2022. And his ability to play multiple positions will aid him in the transition and opportunity. From every report I've ever read or heard, he was a high pick for real reasons. It was only a matter of time...with hope which is the case of all prospects...until he put it all together. I couldn't comment on his defense except to say I've never heard anything bad. The few highlight plays I've seen over the season indicate he can get it done. And yes, they may have been hilights, but if you can make those kind of plays, further time and development should allow you to develop and be solid, if not good. I just never saw Cabbage breaking out the way be did this year. There is still a K vs contact component to work on. But he's only 24yo, a former 4th round pick, and there is enough potential showing after his breakout 2021 that I think you need to find a way to keep him. Steer and Julien were part of the 2019 draft where the Twins seemed to concentrate heavily on infielders. Of course it was Cavaco #1, but they also grabbed Steer, Gray and the Auburn duo of Holland and Julien. IIRC, both Holland and Julien signed over slot due to some savings. The fact that Steer and Julien, despite being college players, have progressed so quickly with a short 2019 and no 2020 is pretty awesome. While we don't know how good either may ultimately be, their early results as possible infield fixtures as at least multi-position options is very encouraging! I'd really like to keep Contreras and Kerrigan around for 2022 if possible. I just don't know if either offers up enough offense to go along with great defense. But either could provide depth and a possible future as a 4th OF.
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- jose miranda
- trey cabbage
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