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Everything posted by DocBauer
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2021 Minnesota Twins Minor League All Stars
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
As someone who follows the Twins milb system very close, I'm embarrassed to admit I hadn't realized how good of a season Morales had as the catcher selection. I'm going to assume Isola was chosen at 1B not only because he qualified there, but because you couldn't select 2 catchers? Maggi deserves the choice at SS, only mildly surprised Palacios wasn't the final choice. I'm very excited about both Steer and Julien. Both could be outstanding bench players within the next couple of years with bats and defensive versatility. I keep wondering about defense, especially in regard to Steer. I keep wondering just how well he can play SS. I've seen guys grow in to the position and become solid, if not very good there. Could he, possibly, be a darkhorse candidate down the line? Would really like to Cabbage and Contreras in the organization. Just don't know if there is room on the 4p man for either, much less both.- 11 replies
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- jose miranda
- louie varland
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Tom, I guess my question to you, which you sort of hinted at, are you looking at Cobb as a secondary acquisition? Because if he's the primary addition then I have to say no. I don't trust the injury history, or feel there's enough upside to make a difference. I'd prefer Cobb as a #3 SP option but could be convinced he'd be a solid #2 if the health question/gamble turned out. While his career W/L is uninspiring, as is his career K/9, most of his overall numbers are solid across the board. He could be that experienced, veteran guy that just suddenly stays healthy and starts to perform the way he always "could have" before, even at 34yo. It happens. We see a guy like that almost every year. Forgetting what I believe will be an approximate $140M payroll for the team to re-tool and compete and thus have the money for a quality FA signing to lead the staff, my biggest problem trying to figure out 2022 is the #2 spot. Is that filled via FA or trade? My gut tells me Pineda is the #3, and it's an easy play, as you alluded to. I can be talked in to Cobb. You make a compelling arguement. And I'd LOVE Gray, but recent rumors say Colorado may offer a QO, assuming they can with the CBA up in the air. If that happens, the Twins are out unless their pick next year is protected. (Want to say it is, but am not sure). I think Wood and Matz might be safer, and I do like a bounceback from Bundy and Duffy. But again, you've given me a lot to think about and I could be talked in to Cobb. Nice OP!
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I say this without anything negative intending to be implied to the man, but as long as Simmons isn't a distraction or problem in the clubhouse, I'm OK if he's back for a 1yr for about $3M. That being said, he's not my first choice. Sometimes the puzzle pieces that make up a team just don't all fit together the right way. I sort of had that feeling, for whatever reason, with Simmons. I could be completely wrong. Assuming most of the resources for 2022 are spent on pitching, we need a SS and I'm looking at Galvis and Iglesias as my first two choices. (Providing Iglesias's defensive issue were a blip). But in defense of Simmons, no pun intended, his career numbers are .265/ .313/ .683. And that is including his horrible 2021 at the plate. 5 times in 10 years he's had an OPS of .690 or higher. For a high quality defense first SS that is more than acceptable. Galvis, for example, has a lower career BA and OB% but an almost identical career OPS due to quite a bit more power. Iglesias beats them all with his career numbers. (Less HR power than Galvis). Galvis is a fine defensive SS and Iglesias has been one as well before what would hopefully prove to just be a down year. And after such a horrendously poor year at the plate by Simmons, which I fully appreciate, I don't think you can easily dismiss him as a bounceback candidate. Again, for the sake of change for a piece of the puzzle, he's not my first choice. But I'm not grabbing and torch or pitchfork if he's back.
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Minnesota Needs to Outbid for an Ace
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
First of all, we just need to STOP talking about an ACE pitcher. When you have one, it's AWESOME. But it guarantees nothing. Witness the Yankees and the Dogers right now. And I would LOVE the Twins to have an ACE to front their rotation. But again, look at the teams in the WS right now. Stop treating the Twins as a lousy franchise. There is a lot of talent in place and and more than a few prospects just ready to contribute or explode. The Twins had a lousy 2021. But Boston and SF and Atlanta were supposed to do nothing or next to nothing. As built right now, the Twins have 2 consecutive ALC flags before 2021. They have a nucleus of a good offensive team in place. They have some key components in the pen initially and a FO that is respected amongst agents. With money to spend, why wouldn't Stoman, Gray, Gausman, Rodon, not look at the Twins as an option? The Twins can easily place any of these 4 in their payroll for 4 years to front their rotation as a 1 or 2 without blowing up payroll. And Pineda can easily slide in to the #3 slot initially. The problem is, who slots in to the #2 slot? The Twins probably need to spend $5-6M for ONE ARM for the BP. Unless the FO pulls another rabbit out of the hat, they are going to have to make a trade for a #2 SP. OR, they will push the 2022 payroll to $145+ and let it fly and take a flier and run with it.- 75 replies
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- robbie ray
- kevin gausman
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Checking in on the Twins 2021 Draft Class: Part 1
DocBauer commented on Andrew Mahlke's blog entry in Mahlk
Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done! What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better. Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there? The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me. -
Going to agree with everything jmlease1 stated with a small exception, that being Laweryson's hits allowed in 2021. While you always prefer your pitcher to have fewer hits than IP, one hit per has always been considered about right or at least acceptable, yes? Laweryson did that almost exactly; 59 in 58.2, 19 walks are solid and his 73 SO are excellent. Not sure how his ERA is as high as it was 4.91, but have to assume a few key hits and the 6HR hurt him. He seems very similar to Gipson-Long, Gross and others who were mid-round selections with the look, stuff, potential, etc, that they like and identify. This is a great opportunity for him and could be a springboard for 2022. Excited to see how he continues.
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- matt wallner
- cody laweryson
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The Twins Don’t Need a High End Utilityman
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As of right now I agree the Twins don't need a super-utility player such as Taylor. Stating the obvious, we have to fill SS first as well as re-sign Buxton. (Im ONLY focusing on the player side of things right now). We also have no real idea as to whether Donaldson will be shipped, or if there's interest in him, or what it might cost the Twins to move him, because it's going to cost SOMETHING to do so. I DO think the odds are pretty good the Twins WILL make a pitching addition via trade. But despite speculation on any of our parts, we don't know if that will be prospects only, or include any ML roster mainstays, much less which one(s). For example, it's easy to say we should move Kepler, or Arraez, or Garver/Jeffers to get a deal done. But we really have no clue what the FO is thinking at this time. It's only my opinion, but while I believe they are open to trades, I don't believe they are looking to move any sort of large number from said roster as it stands today. Arraez fills a valuable role at 3 spots as well as being able to DH and provide a real leadoff option. Gordon provides speed off the bench, a chance to hit a little bit, and fill in "adequately" at multiple positions for a day or so here and there. And at some point, we have to find room for Miranda as well, who can also play a few different spots even though I think his role as future full time 3B would seem clear. Now, I think Taylor COULD be a perfect signing as a solid but not great, SS for 2022 with the idea he can move around in the future if the Twins believe in Lewis. He fills a daily role for now with solid offense, comes cheaper than the other TOP SS on the market, frees $ to continue to address pitching due to his lesser salary, and then slides in to a useful multi-position role come 2023. But to sign him, or anyone else, at this point for a utility spot just doesn't work and doesn't fit with current team needs. IF the Twins suddenly start to move 2 or 3 guys off the ML roster, then ask me this question again in a couple of months. -
Assessing One Internal Bullpen Candidate
DocBauer replied to Allen Post's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Entertaining and fun!! That eephus pitch is hilarious but surprisingly effective. He actually does have very good control of his "stuff". In semi-seriousness, if he is on the roster as the 26th man again, it might be worth him working 15-20 IP...MAX...in a few blowouts just to save the pen a little. Of course, my preference for blowouts is the Twins doing that to other teams. -
Just want to toss in that I agree the Twins have some quality pieces in play already, provided Rogers is back, a long with Duffey, Thielbar and the budding Alcala. For now, I'm assuming Gant is back as a versatile and valuable swing man but I think the projected $3.7 might be a little high. Previous, solid production and what he did last year I want to keep Minaya but I think the roster crunch won't allow it. I also agree AAA has about 4 arms in Moran, Cano, Hamilton and Mason that will contribute in 2022, cheap, loaded with potential and all possessing options. I wouldnt be the least bit shocked if Jax...solid FB and really nice slider...didn't surprise. I want to protect Stashak and look for him to be healthy in 2022. I don't want to see another Anderson or Littel slip away, I hope there is room to keep him. All of that said, all of the names and possibilities presented, I'm OK if the Twins make a SINGLE big move in the pen. Graveman, Knebel and the also mentioned Ryan Tapers all interest me, not necessarily in that order. I jump at $5-6M and MIGHT consider a little more if it gets the deal done. I'm INTERESTED in Bradley, but not as high on him as I was previously after the last year or so. IMO, the pen doesn't need a bunch of additions or huge flier numbers, What it needs is ONE MORE high quality, proven arm with some velocity/nasty stuff and K ability to solidify itself. The absolute #1 priority is adding 2 starters beyond Pineda and the prospects....kinda sounds like a band name lol...because I think Pineda is a given re-sign for no more than $8-10M. Next priority is a quality SS whether they go BIG or just SOLID there. And that's a different arguement for a different time and thread. Maybe I'm silly or overly optimistic, but again, IMO, the pen is going to be just fine to really good if we just get that ONE GUY to add to and deepen the back end of the pen as it sits right now.
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- corey knebel
- kendall graveman
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Levi, this is extremely well thought out and practical! Bless you and your hard work to put this together and being more in touch with some prosoects and lesser known players that I'm just not in touch with, Jose Butto from the Mets as an example. And I agree with Vanimal tbat what you've presented may be better than an "also ran" roster. But I'd like to offer a critique, but not a criticism. Just a few thoughts and questions. 1] I think you are just about spot-on with Buxton. 2] Maybe it's just me, but I think Garver, BIG bat, decent defense, experienced, great team control, might be worth more than Sanchez. And then I read where Sanchez is coming off surgery. So with my belief in Garver, even without surgery for Sanchez, I'm thinking a sweetener for someone better and more proven. And while I don't want to move him as I think he bas a great future, if I'm Miami, and building, might I be more interested in Jeffers? Or Jeffers and a sweetener for one of my more proven arms? I'm just thinking being more aggressive for Alcacantara or Lopez, etc, for Garver/Jeffers and a sweetener. Miami may be looking more for youth and potential. 3] Donaldson to the Mets makes so much sense it's scary. I think you nailed it. I really hate to lose him for 2022, and what he could add to the lineup, but your proposal makes a lot of sense for both teams. Especially if a catcher and other to Miami works out. 4] Doesn't Seager re-sign with the Dogers? Speculation. Is Story the best 2nd choice? I worry about the Colorado factor. What about Baez? I know there is some negatives around him, but nothing really bad. He might come a little cheaper. 5] Cool with Gray. But would Stoman for a few $M be out of reach? It still wouldn't blow your final numbers out of the water and makes sense to me. 6] LF is kind of a potential wasteland with Rooker and others and I get that! You're looking forward. Larnach could settle that spot, and Rooker could adapt and surprise. Hell, could be be any worse than Young or Willingham if he hits? But work with me here brother, you listed MARTEN as an option by mid-season. I'm ASSUMING you are speaking about Martin and not FA Marte, right? Just want to be clear. 7] Love your pen, but head and heart says protect Minaya if you can afford to 40 man wise. Again, just a few questions and a critique. Great job!
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Almost exactly what I was thinking earlier. Additional thought is Larnach in RF and Keplwr gone with Martin flying solo in LF. Of course, we have Celestino for a 4th OF as well. Wallner and/or Cabbage as an OF/DH on the bench? As to backup SS, think Steer or Julien perhaps?
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- royce lewis
- austin martin
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You need offense and pitching. But how do you get better by trading one of your very best players? You don't unless you are rebuilding. And the Twins don't need to rebuild, they need to re-tool, and even management has been clear on this. The Twins can add pitching via FA. They can also trade from within their system, possibly with the addition of a different existing player not named Polanco, to acquire a pitcher. Maeda will be back in 2023. And there are a number of high potential arms a half to full season away from adding to the staff and the pen. Young, talented and controllable arms. You absolutely don't trade Polanco!
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I thought I had heard that his second wrist injury was different than the first one. I hope that is correct. I don't believe his being sent down to begin the season was a mistake or nefarious in any way. He just had a bad ST and they wanted him to get his legs under him and get going. I think he did that and the results were excellent when he got his shot. I believe he's going to be a big producer in the heart of the lineup for years to come. Just another in a long list of bummer for 2021 he wasn't able to be healthy and finish out the season.
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A great OP Nick! Just tremendous! And dead on! 1] IMO, Lewis is, right now, still a SS. And he should be. The talent and ability is there to be AT LEAST a decent SS with a potentially big bat and offensive versatility. Despite lost time you can't ignore talent and potential. He just needs to PLAY! You HAVE to play 2 games at this position as the FO. You have to examine what you intend to do in 2022 as a team while also looking at the future. It's a delicate and difficult balance. The Twins have pitching as their #1 need. Period. But despite a massive amount of $ to spend this offseason there is still a finite number to keep the Twins where they have been, which is $140M to a max of $150M, which is the mean the past few years, roughly. (And the FO has basically stated they expect to spend around what they've spent the last 3yrs). Barring a trade for someone, Taylor, Iglesias, and Galvis are all potentially fine short term SS options for now. They may not be as good defensively as Simmons, but they all could not only be better offensively, but maybe just be a better "fit" for the team. That's not a personal knock on Simmons, but roster construction is more than just numbers. 2] Building a rotation is probably the biggest key to 2022. We can, and will discuss the staff in length going forward. But IF the FO is serious about contending...and they should be considering the overall talent on hand...someone needs to lead the rotation, The good news is the FA depth this year is deep and interesting. I am going to continue to bang the drum that Stoman makes the most sense. He's been tied to the Twins for a few years now. He's, more or less, a Berrios clone. (I said more or less). I believe the $12M he earned in 2021 is his highest earning season. I think he's about as safe a signing as you could make at $18-20M per, maybe even with an out clause. Ray and Gray have as much ability, and might prove to be even better signings. I'm not sure I trust Rodon, but he is intriguing, I think Gausman wants to stay where he is. The Twins need someone 29-31yo who has the ability to front the rotation on a 3-5yr deal without making anyone nervous about blowing up. Hence the guys I've mentioned. Pineda, to me, as I've stated before is almost a done deal as the #3 guy, unless his $8M could be spent on someone they actually like better. The key is the #2 spot. That spot could EASILY be a 1yr flier make good deal to sort of go "all in" for 2022. Or, a sort of "WTH", let's take a shot, in other words. But I think the #2 spot is 50/50 a trade with a couple years left, think Odorizzi and Maeda, or a 1yr prove it like Bundy for example. There IS a pipeline coming! It's tantalizing close! And I really don't want to trade from it because I see a couple quality MLB SP and quality RP options, but SOMEONE has to front the rotation for the next year or two. 3] Rogers is an absolute keep and important part of 2022, and maybe beyond. And his cost is marginal, But only he and the Twins know how he's looking right now. Without him, it changes a lot of their off-season approach. 4] The pen arms on hand, even with an expected healthy Rogers, is a HUGE issue question. Duffey slipped then made changes, and was great again. He's is. So are Thielbar and Alcala. I would not be shocked or ticked off if Colome was brought back considering his career and his 2021 season from June on. But like Simmons at SS, sometimes the mix just doesn't work. I don't know who at this time to replace him, but I think you need to just move on and spend the $ on someone else. I'm OK with protecting Minaya, who performed well and has a decent history. Coulombe I'm not so sure about as be did well, and has an OK history, but what about Smeltzer,Thorpe and Moran? Moran will be protected. The rest are questionable. I'm seeing a couple milb signjngs and we'll see what happens. I'd probably protect Minaya and let everyone go and see who I can re-sign. I think FA, milb deals, and a couple young arms like Jax converting, could fill the front end of the pen. The guy that perplexes me is Gant. He is an experienced, veteran arm with OK results across the board as a solid RP and so-so SP. In no way is he worth a projected $3.7M in arbitration. He could be very valuable as a middle relief guy who can slide in to the rotation in an emergency, but NOT for that price. I'd offer $2.5-2.7 and let him go if he balks. Stashak is the guy that just kills me. He's looked so good in SSS that I don't want to lose him. But the 40 man is going to be so scrunched that I'm not sure you can protect him. Rogers healthy, bring in ONE ARM for around $5-6M and I'm happy trusting what we have, prospects, and milb signings. 5] The DH? Let's just address the elephant in the room. It would be AWESOME to have Cruz back as our DH and a leader, etc, etc. If not him, it sure would be nice to have a BIG bat you could write in pen daily to torment the opposition. But on a practical note, how many teams have that? And we all pretty much assume the NL will have the DH in 2022. Not only will we have to fight 29 other teams, potentially, for his services, but his age just can't be discounted. Furthermore, unless the Twins trade off at least one if not two players from what we expect to be their "regular" roster, where is there room for a full time DH? Right now, today, no trades made, the roster needs room for Sano, Donaldson, Garver, Arraez, AK and even Larnach...who may or may not break camp with the Twins...and Miranda to be in the lineup daily. Even IF one of those guys are traded, there remains a daily crunch to play everyone and get them in the lineup. Unless there are massive injury issues, or a couple guys just stink initially, the DH should be spread out between the roster we have. As the roster stands now, the primary DH should be handled by a mix of Donaldson, Garver and Arraez with a few half days off for others. DH is NOT a problem. 6] Buxton is both complicated and easy. He wants to stay. The extension was reportedly NOT A PROBLEM in regard to guaranteed salary. The hangup was the incentives. Well hell, if he's healthy enough to play 120-140 games, you'd think the FO would be ECSTATIC to pay for his availability and the numbers he would probably produce. Further, he'd put butts in the seats. At WORST, he provides tremendous value when on the field vs his guaranteed money. At best, he is a potential MVP candidate who leads your team to a possible WS. You can even toss in an opt out clause if you are truly worried about future earnings. But what ownership, even if you want to keep beating the same old worn out drum about the Pohlads, wouldn't be willing to pay incentives to a difference maker who could be a face of the franchise and POSSIBLE MVP player? Get this done!
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- byron buxton
- taylor rogers
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To answer the question posed in the headline, he did as much as he could with what he was given. Despite impressively transitioning to the OF/CF on the fly, he was still used a bit inconsistently in a losing year. There were absolutely additional opportunities to play he could have been given. His offense wasn't great, but was solid enough for a utility type. He showed a little pop and no question the speed he displayed is very welcome. He's always been know for building on his previous experience at a repeat of a level. That should hopefully be the situation here. Additionally, what would a good, healthy 10-15 pounds do for this kid? Sure hope to find out.
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Going to Target on a Saturday night when no one else is shopping and you have the store to yourself and you see yourself on the security cam at the self-checkout and you look like you lost a little weight in your face. ABSOLUTELY NOT! Every single camera at the checkout makes me look like my DL picture from every year since I turned 30! Makes me look like a mug shot from being picked up for a DUI...which has never happened....or my company credential pic for driving an annoying ice cream van blaring annoying Caribean music throughout local neighborhoods enticing kids to fork over their allowance for sugar treats...which has also never happened.
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Echo all previous comments that the proposed trade is disgusting and offers the Twins nothing more than a small pittance of financial relief and nothing more. Less we forget, Donaldson's injury this season was a hamstring issue and not the dreaded calf issue which has plagued him previously. He played in 135G, had over 500 PA and over 400 AB, albeit, some of those came as a DH. His numbers were very similar to his career production. And there is a very enlightening BLOG on TD where bean5302 really breaks down his season in minute detail that basically shows he might have been even better in 2021 with a little more BABIP luck and his skills haven't diminished. That means, decent health, a little more time spent at the open DH to assist and preserve, hes on target to again be a very productive hitter in 2022. Except for a few bizarre miscues, especially early in the season when it seemed the Twins were under some kind of general/universal curse, his defense was again very good, though his range may have slipped somewhat. But let's stop there for a moment and look at the "dude" and not just the player. Donaldson is absolutely a "red ass" as a player. That is NOT an indictment of him as a person. It's a long held term for an intense player. And if you don't think the best Twins teams, including their 2 WS teams, didn't have a couple "red asses" on them you are either too young or weren't paying proper attention. He's a very different personality to the intense, but more laid back Cruz. But like Cruz, from the day Donaldson donned a Twjns jersey, players have flocked to him for advice on hitting and approach. And he has responded in kind. Despite a few on the field incidents that may have left a few of us shaking our heads, he has been totally professional and never been anything negative during this disappointing and frustrating season. He brings offense, defense, experience and leadership as well as some "red ass" to 2022 that the Twins will need between 3B and DH. His trade just won't bring back anything substantial enough unless it could, maybe, bring back a high quality back of the pen arm. Other than something of that nature, his value is remaining a Twin for 2022 and splitting his time between 3B and some time at DH. It's up to the Twins FO, and Rocco, and opportunity that always happens in regard to things like injury, to find room for Miranda and others to pave their way for 2022 and the future.
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Ranking the Top Free Agent Shortstop Options
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would be excited if the Twins added any of these fine SS. But I'm not sure I'm excited at the prospect of adding any of them. The problem with SS within the system is NOT that the Twins don't have SS depth, or at least intriguing options, it's that they don't have anyone close to being ready or anyone you can draw a circle around and say THIS GUY! I've seen just enough of Lewis in ST games, hilights from milb and the AFL, as well as reading enough to just be dangerous as a talent evaluator. I think he has the speed, quickness, athleticism and arm to play the position, play it well, and be at least solid, if not better. But the kid needs a chance to PLAY. I think he's a full year away, no matter his ability, attitude, professionalism, talent, etc. Martin went from college straight to AA. He split his 1st season almost equal between SS and CF but I'd keep playing at short as long as I can. It's called development, and at worst, flexibility. Who knows at this point if he couldn't surprise and stick there? (Not betting on it, but I wouldn't give up after ONE SEASON). Cavaco and Miller are too far away. Steer and Julian are probably super-utility players but could surprise, Holland has done nothing as of yet. Javier is an enigma. Palacios is a mystery who could surprise after his 2021 return to the Twins system. EVERY SINGLE TIME I look at this roster I see offense and offensive potential that makes 2022 look just fine, overall, and darn right dangerous with a couple simple rebounds, just a little better health, a little more consistency and development of some very talented youngsters. I just see adding 2 quality SP, by WHATEVER means, to join Pineda, Ryan, Ober, a healthy Dobnak, and the prospects as being the key. Of course, love to add ONE MORE backend RP and a viable RH 4th OF as well. But IMO, what the Twins need is a viable defensive SS who doesn't embarrass himself at the plate. And I just don't know how you add one of these top FA SS and still add to the rotation unless the FO can pull a rabbit or two out of their cap. If they COULD do that, I'd be as giddy as a lottery winner! I don't know what happened to Iglesias this past year. I'm not a metrics investigator. But my understanding is his defense fell way off in 2021 after a career of being considered a quality defender. Did he suddenly get very old at 31? Was he playing hurt? Was he under the Angels curse? Dunno. But I have him and Freddy Galvis at the top of my SS list for 2022 as relatively inexpensive, proven, veteran, don't embarrass yourself at the plate options while focusing on the pitching staff.- 37 replies
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- javier baez
- trevor story
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Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree with the basic sentiment that signing a big $ BP arm seldom makes sense or turns out right. History shows this as being a crap shoot, but then again, FA in general can be that way I guess. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't sign SOMEONE they think has real value for $6-7M-ish to augment the back end of the pen. I don't know who that guy is right now I'm sorry to say. We keep talking about making a trade for a quality SP with a couple years of control. But what about a trade for a BP arm from a team not expected to compete in 2022, OR, a team needing a little help somewhere who has a setup arm they would be willing to deal? That used to be a common way for teams to acquire a closer, get the setup guy from someone else who may be ready for the next step. Other than trading for Reardon, way back in the day, and nabbing Nathan from the Giants as, you guessed it, a setup man ready for an expanded role, the Twins excelled in developing their closer from converted starters within their system. Aguillera, Perkins, Trombley, Guardado are some examples. (Aguillera was acquired as a SP and then later converted). That is the best way to go to be sure. But we don't have THAT GUY at the moment. Alcala might be the next opportunity, but he's just taking that first step to being a reliable back end arm. Duran could be as well, but I'm sure as hell not going to give up on him as a SP at this point. Canterino is the same, but further away. They really, really need ONE ARM they believe in to join Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar and Alcala on that back end. And nobody wants to hear this, and I don't want to say it, but until someone shows me a real FA or trade target that makes sense....forgive me....I still have to wonder if Colome isn't a viable option. At some point, we have to forget April and May last year and look at his career and what he did from about June 1st on. I hope they can do better for the same $ or a bump, but I think he needs to be considered as a 1yr option.- 14 replies
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- liam hendriks
- craig kimbrel
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A couple brief comments regarding the initial 4 points posted first: 1] I firmly believe the Twins are at least 50/50 on signjng one of the top FA arms. They went hard after Darvish and were one of the finalists. The Cubs went an extra year and "won" his services. (Might have bumped the A/V a bit I can't remember). They were serious about Wheeler at $20M plus but had the door slammed immediately as he just didn't want to leave the east coast. But the point is, they HAVE previously looked at the big arms. I think they WILL look again. And if they succeed, well, awesome! But it will impact point #2. 2] I DO think the Twins are going to trade for a rotation piece. I'm oblivious as to who and a bit sketchy as to how. Odorizzi and Maeda were virtual steals for a milb player, but can they do it again? Just a gut feeling, but I think the FO is looking to trade from their milb depth for an arm and wanting to keep the ML roster mostly intact at this point. I mean, we're talking about a re-tool vs a re-build so I don't see more than one roster fixture being moved. 3] I believe Pineda is a virtual lock for about $8M. Maybe with a couple kickers thrown in. But to me, that's a re-sign and agree it's not like some "on the market" signing. And so that still leaves 2 holes to fill. 4] I agree reinforcements are close. Could be as many as 4 or 5 ready by mid-season despite the disappointments of delayed development in 2021. But we're talking mid-season more than likely. You can't open 2022 on wishes and prayers to begin the season. I'm out on Greinke due to age and his previous reluctance to include the Twins as a tradeable team. Not saying I don't make a call to see if he's suddenly had a change of heart, but I don't expect it. I confess I don't know a lot about DeSclafini, but looked up his numbers. I'm OK with him but a little "meh". Not crazy about being 32yo, but if he really figuresd some things out and made some nice adjustments, he could be just as good working with Johnson. But are we talking a 1yr deal or something more? He could be an outstanding 1yr option, maybe some sort of 1+1 or option year, but I'm not willing for more than that at this point. Gray and Ray should almost be included together as they've both been mentioned in regard to the Twins as "potentials" the past few years as much as Stroman. Same age and similar careers. I could see either on 1 plus deal and could be OK. I think the Twins are out on any of the TOP SS options unless they wash out in the SP FA market. That's how and why they signed Donaldson. BUT, if they can bring in a couple solid arms via trade and FA...heaven and baseball gods forbid they bring in 2 FA that are quality without breaking the bank...they could still make a strike in that area. But do they need to? And I'm being serious here. With a better pen and a little better health the second half, the Twins basically played .500 ball with a patchwork rotation. What could they accomplish with a couple better rotation pieces to lead the rotation? Basic logic and finances and what little we actually know and speculate about what we know about the FA options available, Stoman and Ray and Gray make the most sense as FA signings if you're looking for someone to lead the staff. I believe Stoman made $12M last year and pretty sure that was his biggest $ year to date. He's been tied to the Twins for years now as a very similar pitcher to Berrios. (FWIW). He would seem to be the perfect target for a 4 or 5yr deal at $18-20M per deal that doesn't break the bank or preclude the Twins from making additional signings or moves. Maybe most import, he's been a model of health and consistency. You could even throw in an "out clause" after the 2yrs if you really needed to, allowing for the rise of milb talent. I think Ray and Gray offer the same potential as Stoman, without as much consistency, and might come in a little cheaper. Do the Twins have to sign Scherzer or Thor or Bauer to compete? Hell no! But these are a couple of arms listed who are still young enough, proven enough, talented enough to actually head the rotation without blowing up payroll. IF you make the right and smart move, you STILL have the "luxury" of a 2nd FA signing or a smart trade to bring in that Odorizzi or Maeda trade to fill the #2 spot. Such a trade could a steal as they've done before, hopefully, or it could include a couple quality milb prospects and one ML player like Kepler or Sano along with someone like Sands, just for example. Make no mistake, I'm open to a lot of potential scenarios here to bring in a couple quality SP options to lead our 2022 rotation. I'm inclined to keep the ML roster intact as much as possible as 2 steps forward and 2 steps back doesn't lead to success. But the Twins have enough talent and depth and $ available to make one or two smart moves to re-tool this roster without blowing up the roster or the system to make 2022 a competitive team. And whether they sign one of FA SP pitcher mentioned previously, as a primary or secondary, I have thoughts about guys like Rodon or Bundy. Would you bet big $ on Rodon? One big year for Rodon? Or would you play it safe for Bundy who has flashed and might be primed for a good year with Johnson and the Twins after a career with Baltimore and the Angels? Sorry to be long winded, but there are a lot of different venues for this FO to follow the next couple of months to add and re-tool this rotation.
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Scouting Twins Prospects: Gilberto Celestino
DocBauer replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I like his potential a lot and really hope we find a RH Cave replacement and allow Celestino to begin the year in St Paul. He needs to play daily right now to improve his bat and hopefully unlock some additional power potential. IMO his floor is a quality and versatile 4th OF. His ceiling is a starting OF, of course. I'm not worried about him being passed by at this point. I truly believe Lewis is going to stick at SS and while I'm not in a hurry to move Martin off of SS...you always give a talented kid like him time to see how he develops...I think he's going to end up in the OF with the ability to still help in the infield. -
Pitching Prospect Louie Varland Tells All
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
What makes his season even more amazing is he barely pitched after being drafted in 2019, missed 2020 like everyone else, and was this damn good this quickly. I fully appreciate comments and reports I've read previously that his secondary stuff needs work/improvement. But isn't that true for most any young pitcher? Especially one who has ONE season of experience. -
Mike, I can't really disagree with you. And I don't want to for sure. But I'm afraid I'm kind of forced to. I think some of the young arms could be up and ready in as little as half a year, Balazovic, Winder, Sands and hopefully Duran, etc. But we have to have a full rotation to begin the season. Now, they don't HAVE to sign three FA. It might be two and a trade for a third, but they need arms. I think Pineda is a virtual lock for 1yr around $8M. I almost don't count him as a FA because it's really just keeping one of our own. But he's really a #3. I think Ryan and Ober are near locks. And I still think a healthy Dobber is going to play a real part in 2022 at some point. And the Twins have more thN enough $ available to make ONE big FA signing, and I'm still thinking Stoman is just an obvious choice. But they still need one more guy to help front the rotation. Could be a trade. Could be another 1yr deal on a rebound or "prove it" kind of deal for someone coming off a disappointing year. But they just have to add two guys to Pineda, Ryan and Ober, don't they?
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Absolutely agree with this OP 100% 1] I've thought all along this team needs to re-tool and not re-build. Losing Maeda really hurts and makes said re-tool a lot harder. But when I look at the position player portion of thisLet team I'm still excited. Granted there were some down years for some if the guys. But with a couple rebounds, just a little better luck injury wise, and the continued development of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino and the debut of Miranda I think there is still a lot of offensive potential. 2] Let's face it, even if the Twins were to max out their payroll, to around $150M, they simply can't make the SPLASH moves very often that other larger market teams can. Which is why they just have to be smart. Have they always been so? No. But the Odorizzi, Maeda and Cruz moves WERE. Most of the trade returns they've made look solid and a couple of the guys are starting to make their presence known. Yes, they can make a splash here and there. But again, it's about being smart. And they are going to have to be really, really smart this offseason in regard to the rotation. They have room for one big move there, but doubtful they can make two. 3] The previous years this group has done a really solid job of building the pen without spending a ton of $. And they seem to tweak things as they go along and have even better second halves. While the 2021 pen just imploded the first half, it was put together in a way that SEEMED smart initially. And boy was it a better bullpen the second half. They absolutely need one really good arm for the back of the pen. And maybe they need another smaller Clippard or Robles type of addition. (Not sure it's necessary but wouldn't hurt). But with that one good addition, I'm encouraged.
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#1] Ryan is an athlete and competitor and bright. Don't underestimate those qualities. His FB is average velocity, 91-94, but plays up due to location and release. We were informed his secondary stuff needed work. OK. But I watched his games and his secondary stuff looked pretty good to me his first 4 starts. Not talking about the teams he pitched against, just watching his stuff. His last start was pretty scrappy, but come on, we're talking about a rookie pitching his final game after attending a family situation. At the risk of sounding really old, I just love the moxie of the kid and believe his stuff plays and plays well. I am NOT going to annoit him as a future ACE. For one thing, I've learned that ACE status is rare and COMPLETELY unpredictable. But I honestly see his floor as a quality #3 and very probably a quality #2 in a season or two. Anything more than that is up to him and time and experience. (FWIW, I also see Ober as a potential #3 if he just stays healthy and keeps growing and can keep the HR numbers down) #2] Nick, you have more optimism regarding Jax than I do. He is, unfortunately, a victim of circumstance in his delayed development. But I DO SEE a decent FB and a very njce slider. And the kid is smart. Fully appreciate numbers posted previously as to his rookie performance. But there is that key word: ROOKIE. For someone who wasn't even expected to pitch at the ML level this year, how much do we stare at the final numbers? Shouldn't we, in this case, just look at the positives and the FB and slider and just wonder about gaining experience and wonder/project what he might do in the pen? Honestly asking. I think he might have a real role there in the future, but I'd think it would be mid 2022 and not before. #3] Never doubted AK before and won't now. This last wrist injury is not the same injury he had previously. So at this point, there is nothing chronic to worry about. He will probably end up at 1B because he's so good and natural there. And that's fine. But he's also solid in the OF. #4] Nick, IMO, you are way off on Lewis for 2022. Maybe I'm just a blind optomist, but I believe in this kid so much! I 100% believe he is going to hit, provide power and speed and be exciting. I fully believe he has all the tools necessary to be at least a "competent" SS. I say this as no expert, but I've seen enough from milb hilights and ST games to recognize the skilllset is there. Now, I'm not expecting greatness right away, or in the future, but be should be at least solid. And I expect growing pains both offensively and defensively early on. But I will be pleasantly shocked if he's ready for 2022 in any way other than a late season promotion. No matter his talent, attitude, intelligence or "gamer" ability, he just needs to PLAY.