DocBauer

I picked 4, even though it could take a day or two for everyone else to be brought up. Close enough for me to pick 4. Ryan is up. Moran or Hamilton is up. Maybe both. Decent chance it's just one with the other up a couple days later. Miranda up by the end of the week. Who is not listed? Dobnak. He might get one more start, but then he too is up. Gant needs to be in the pen. He just might be a viable, experienced BP option in 2022. Ober, Ryan, Jax, Dobnak and Albers to finish the season in the rotation. Gant to the pen where he joins Hamilton and Moran. Miranda gets his feet wet before the week is done. It's about 2022 and the Twins future, and not about a strong finish for St Paul.

Your exuberance is fun, fine, and even warranted to some degree. I just can't understand a shot for Gibaut in any way unless it's a temporary filler before being dropped again for someone else. And I understand the want to promote some younger arms from AAA. I want to see that as well. And I'm frustrated! But I CAN understand taking a look at these handful of arms to help make better off-season decisions. These guys are 25-31yo, for the most part, and 1 or 2 could be kept. Also, a couple could end up being smart milb signings to bring back. So I get it. The lack of an expanded September roster hurts teams like the Twins. But there is room TOMORROW to still drop a couple of these guys and add/promote a couple of the milb arms for September for auditions. Right now, just forgetting the rotation needs for a moment, the Twins really, really need to add a couple quality arms for 2022. We all know this. It's no mystery. But it's also OK to be taking a look at the guys on hand to help decide who to bring back in various degrees.

Despite real reservations initially, and a real surprise he was protected and brought up so early, I've been impressed since his first start. Now, that first start wasn't a very successful one, but you could see potential. And he's only gotten better. And the last month or so, he's performed well against top competition. He's also been making some adjustments on the fly with his slider. I commented a few weeks ago that Ober has been the most impressive rookie SP I've seen in years. Someone reminded me about Dobnak. And yes, Dobnak showed promise at the end of 2019 and had a great start to 2020. And I'm not dismissing the flash a healthy Dobnak has shown....and I still think he has a shot as a solid back end SP...but Ober has shown more, in as many or more IP. The league will adjust. And Ober will need to do the same. The good news is he's already shown that ability so far. Despite a much, much better season since June on, I just don't see a place for Colome. Thank him but send him on his way. Just great to see Donaldson have another big moment. I think there is a real chance the Twins will shop him this offseason. But while not his biggest fan, I don't want to trade him for next to nothing for only a few $M saved. He's still a big and productive bat and solid defender even though we're probably talking about a part-time 3B and part-time DH. And I'm OK with the value he still offers if a trade just doesn't offer enough relief/return. Tough to run to Detroit for a win, then run back home for another series and lose that day off. They've shown a lot of fortitude this past month. Time to take care of the Cubs.

At this point, Winder and Duran being re-habbed and resting and Balazovic taking regular turns in AA and continuing to get in IP, sure looks like the rotation will/should be Ryan, Dobnak, Ober, Jax and Albers to finish things off. 4 of those 5 figure in to plans for 2022 in varying capacities. Very good chance ST Paul is absolutely loaded in their 2022 rotation, but Albers could have depth value on a milb deal again.

I LOVE these reports on milb talent! And I appreciate this and every other report. It helps us get to know these prosoects better, and remind us who they are. And I can't help but humbly apologize as about a week ago I commented how good a start Gipson-Long had after a similar TDpost. And then I realized I was thinking about Gross. So I offer humble apologies from someone who SHOULD know better considering how faithful I try to follow the system. And then I not only felt a little better after I realized they were BOTH drafted in 2019, Gipson-Long in the 6th round, and Gross in the 10th round, but also because they are very similar in regard to prospect status. There has been this very long discussion about our FO building an infrastructure similar to Houston and Cleveland and TB, and it sends my mind racing! These are the kind of pitchers drafted by those organizations and turned in to quality starters. You do realize that Balazovic and Winder, and Ryan, and others, weren't top of the of the order draft picks, right?

Just a bad game and embarrassing loss. Gant MIGHT have a future in the 2022 pen but throwing him out there is a diservice to him and ANY potential he has. HOPEFULLY we will see Ryan and Dobnak SOON to actually build towards 2022. And I think the Twins are doing right at this time in a lost season to audition some BP arms. And as much as it sucks, a game or two doesn't really show potential for a couple guys they are looking at. But you also have to be willing to pull the plug and let some of the AAA arms to bet their shot! And it's time! Colome what? Lover or hater, tell me the Turtle hitting a HR wasn't fun. Tell me, even in an embarrassing loss, tell me you didn't laugh and enjoy Astudillo tossing up crap and having a clean IP. Dark humor isn't a bad thing. LOL

I am an absolute believer in Ober right now! And it's not just some hope/hype. I've seen enough young pitchers come up over the years, including Gibson, Berrios, etc, who took their lumps. And I've seen a lot of kids who came up and had magic for a game or two and the reality set in quickly. I was NOT a fan of Ober being protected. HONESTLY, I was WTH? Despite video game numbers, there was just a sense it was an illusion. And he was always hurt. He commented a year or so ago that be always felt poorly after a start. And he's worked hard to perfect his delivery for health and production. And I'm repeating ALL OF THIS from previous posts. So forgive me. Ober has been promoted VERY aggressively! Take the time to look at his career numbers. Don't be lazy. He's started 15 games and has pitched better the more times he takes the bump. His numbers are solid across the board and he hasn't built those numbers against poor teams. Just recently, it was reported he changed his slider on the fly. He's throwing it harder now, with a little less break, but it plays off his FB better. And he's doing this as a rookie. I have watched most of his games thus far and have commented at times his stuff seems to break almost too much. And I will echo Dman that you can't live high in the zone all of the time. But his FB PLAYS. Especially considering it looks even faster than 92-94. His slider also plays big time if he can harness it a bit more. Early returns look good. If he can find any sort of 3rd pitch to keep LH honest, he might be a legit #3 rotation piece. I believe in him that much! And before the season began, I was like REALLY?

The question for Ryan is what is best for him, and his future with the Twins, and NOT about a horrible rotation right now in a lost season. Ideally, he'd get at least one more start at St Paul to continue settling back in to a normal routine. Ideally. And I'm on the "what's best for Ryan" wagon. BUUUUUT....I believe I've changed my stance. And I've done so because he's "riding the lightening" right now. He's been good at AAA, looked amazing in the Olympics, and had a pair of great starts for St Paul. I think it's his time. And he doesn't even have to catch a flight to just travel across town to make his debut. By the time he does, he will have had a couple weeks for his body and head to adjust to being HOME again. It's time. Further, and off topic again, Dobnak will hopefully be healthy and ready to go soon. And a few starts for him to finish the season could be very important as a springboard for 2022. This also allows Gant to stick to the pen. He MIGHT have a role as a middle man in 2022 but does anyone really think he's even a HOPE for the rotation? No. And Albers, sorry, is doubtful to be the next Thielbar. It's Ryan's time NOW. Get him up here and get his feet wet. Get a healthy Dobnak up ASAP as well. Then keep running through BP options from St Paul. September is about getting ready for 2022 and paving a new road.

Except those extra 10 games are part of a playoff format from what I read and heard a month or so ago. Originally, the idea was to simply extend the season for all teams to get extra work for prospects in the system. They changed that idea to have playoffs for the top teams only to crown a sort of champion. So unless we have a milb team at the top of their division, we, and everyone else, lose the extra 10 game for play and development. MLB and it's infinite wisdom messing even further with milb after a lost 2020 year. And I have been on my soapbox for some time now about the absolutely ridiculous September call up restrictions. MLB decided the integrity of the game in September pennant races would suffer from teams playing a large number of milb players. Have they paid attention to history or some of the current teams this season? How does a bad team be "worse" by playing some young talent to get them experience before the next year? Idiocy at its best.

There is no question in regard to Buxton's talent and the fact that he is a difference maker when on the field and in the lineup. Despite everything that has gone wrong this year, a recent stat from Aaron Gleeman, reported in a different TD article, states the Twins were 42-20 when allowing 5 or fewer runs. Now, Buxton was around for some of those wins, but certainly not a majority of them. And that is a reflection not only about the pitching in 2021, but also a glut of errors early in the year like I've seldom seen. And, of course, there is the Cruz factor that is no longer relevant. This is to say the Twins have offensive talent, and have been breaking in a handful of quality young prospects that will only get better. So can the Twins win without Buxton? Yes. But are they a better team, especially with Cruz gone, WITH Byron? Absolutely. I am going to echo what terrydactyls mentioned, unless I am mis-remembering grossly, the rejection of the 1st couple of offers from Buxton's camp were not about the base $ offered but the structure of the incentives. Unfortunately for debate, we really don't know how those incentives were built. This tells me a basis for a deal still exists. I believe the Twins need to "gamble" and make this deal work with changes to said structure of incentives in order to actually make it work. I don't expect Buxton to suddenly become an iron man. And there IS risk, hence the incentives. And I'm not going to blame him for a broken hand on a poorly controlled pitch. And with his migraines seemingly under control, with his body built up, with him learning to preserve his body better in the field, there is hope to some degree that he has matured physically and intellectually to see the field more often going forward. The reward portion of risk/reward is just too great to not make a real effort to make this work and take the gamble. All that being said, there comes a time when the numbers just don't line up and the Twins will have to fold and make a trade decision or decide to run with him for 2022 and get the best/most they can from him. Really, there are only a few teams that could afford a big $ gamble on Buxton. I really hope it doesn't come down to saying goodbye and they can find a common ground that makes sense.

You have to realize/remember, 5 runs given up is an aggregate/delta. For every 10-8 game there are as many 3-2 games, as an example. So it's about consistency. You have to remember a truth that has been born out year after year...everyone will win 60 and lose 60. It's the other 42 games that make the difference. [Don't you DARE talk about 50 win teams as they are an outlier and you know this]. The problem is not offense, even though it's underperformed at times for various reasons. And there are a few tweaks that could help with better health and approach. And I would tell you that there is a lot of optimism here with the talent on hand. But clearly the issue is pitching. Two days ago I would have told you what this team needs is a quality SP...and there are different options and scenarios...to add and bring back Pineda or someone similar and let the 4th and 5th spots be fluid various arms. Sign a couple quality BP arms that shouldn't cost more than $7-10M combined....which MIGHT include the Colome option...plus a flier or 2. But IF Maeda is a surgery issue, we enter a whole new territory for 2022. Suddenly we go from a quality SP addition...Stoman?...and Pineda or similar...to needing THREE SP pitchers if Maeda is gone. This, unfortunately, puts us in an entirely different dynamic. We are SO CLOSE to seeing pitching prospects arriving at the ML level. But we are also in a very bad place if Maeda is out. Suddenly a re-tool is a potential re-build. Is there enough guts for the FO and ownership to still bring in a top arm? Then you have to bring another second arm to replace Maeda IF he is out. Then you'd still like a veteran arm so Ober and others don't HAVE to be counted on. I don't envy the FO right now. You need another SP for a good team with talent and potential. You need to help the pen and make sure the #3 spot in your rotation is OK. And Suddenly you don't know if Maeda will be part of 2022. Nightmare situation for the FO.

BTW, just call me Doc. Lol I honestly can't remember if Miranda has to be protected or not this offseason. And we're NOT talking service time! We are talking about protecting enough young talent, primarily pitchers, that if he doesn't have to be protected, I can see logical reasons to let him rake for the new AAA affiliate in playoff contention and just bring him to ST as an invite. Milb is about developing ML talent. Period! And this is Miranda's BREAKOUT year. I hate to say it as his loss from St Paul could mess with their playoffs, and his addition to the 40 man could cost us a protected player/pitcher, but he needs to be up to get exposure and get his feet wet for the future. You can only keep lightening in a bottle for so long.

Nice! And smart. I expect nothing less. I think the Dozier comp is very accurate. It's pretty awesome to have someone starting a game, or an inning, with the potential to make a splash. And maybe, just maybe, as you alluded to, said batter just seems to produce better in those situations. Maybe I'm just too old school in my approach, and a bopper at the top is great....I reflect to Boggs, Downing, and a few others...but I still believe getting on base and being a quality hitter before your PRIME hitters just makes more sense. I remember Rocco speaking about the way too soon departed Bell insisting to Rocco to bat Arraez #1 all the time, regardless. It seemed like they did that early in the year before falling in to old habits. And believe me, I get the temptation to have as good of a hitter like Arraez hitting 5-6-7 to be clutch and set the table for other hitters. But old school or not, modern baseball or not, you STILL want to wear our pitchers and get runners on base before your best RBI and power bats come up! Arraez should ALWAYS be #1. IMO, when in the lineup. Kepler should slide down in the lineup, with Sano, to utilize their XB ability. Sometimes, even a deep fly ball can score a damn run. Right? I should have included the use of Arraez in my proposed Q&A with Rocco and the FO. I think you will agree with me on these points that you helped bring up.

Hey Mike, you are 100% correct. But he was a high selection from the previous FO. He was selected #73 which puts him as a 2nd or 3rd rounder with comp picks and the such, so forgive me if I don't have the exact round. And while he was OK in the early part of his career, he didn't exactly light things up. I wouldn't have drafted him rule V either. And while I dislike rumors and 2nd hand reports overall, I respect Gleeman and feel he's fairly well plugged in to things. And he has stated multiple times that when he talked to various sources of someone to watch out for, Miranda was a name that kept popping up. To Miranda's credit, he has worked hard and taken full advantage of opportunity to grow, develop, play winter ball, etc, and start to realize his potential. NOT saying you are being dismissive of him, and you are correct other teams passed, and with good reason, but he is an early draft selection who has figured it out. Thank the baseball gods that nobody else saw this coming because we are about to reap the rewards.

Outstanding! Agree almost 100%! Just a couple quick comments: 1] Agree on Kepler for about 70-80% games started as RH SP is clearly prevalent. He probably appears as a PH and/or defensive replacement another 10%-ish. It plays to his strengths. Also why I've been on my soapbox so much how that RH 4th OF is so important for 2022, whoever he might be. But I really don't understand the obsession with Kepler hitting leadoff. 2] Totally agree that it is silly to label Kirilloff as a 1B at this point. He's just fine as a corner OF. But he can and should continue to play some 1B. Creates opportunity and roster flexibility. And I also believe Sano is far better than he's shown the 1st of this year and think we'll see the better player we think he should be and history has generally shown he is next year. He could be so dangerous as a 6/7 hitter. 3] I think Larnach has a very good chance to be a regular starter with the Twins in 2022, albeit with a possible start in AAA. Also part of the reason AK should continue to see time at 1B. I am fully convinced from what I've seen that both guys are going to be very good. Only a question of WHEN. 4] Also agree on Donaldson about half the time at 3B and plenty of time at DH, unless he has one of those surprise seasons he's had before where his body suddenly responds well. But even still, there is room for Arraez at 3B as well as 2B and DH. We need to stop thinking that the DH spot has to be ONE GUY. AND that the DH has to be a big power bat. With as much offensive power as the 2022 team could/should have, nothing wrong with Arraez seeing time there as a tremendous tablesetter. [I also like Garver spending half days there to keep his bat in the lineup]. Even with Cruz gone, offense isn't the problem and we all know that. 5] The ONE GUY who "messes" with lineup construction is Miranda. Never a TOP prospect until now, he is someone the FO has just been waiting to tap his potential. He's done that now. His presence makes roster construction and lineups on napkins more complicated, but in a good way. You FIND a way to make it all work when you have someone that young and good and ready! And let's be honest, there is no such thing as a static 13 man player roster. There are always injuries and IL time that forces you to juggle at least another few guys in and out and up and down. It always seems to work itself out. GREAT POST!

Liked this and a good post, but I disagree about service time. We can agree to disagree, but I truly believe the Buxton issue is old was not about service time. It was about a horrendous season and injury and protecting an investment to just let him get right. And we have heard no negativity from Buxton, or his camp, about that situation best I can recall. I think the Twins love Miranda and rumor is they've just been waiting for him to reach that next level. He has. And I agree he is somewhat blocked at the moment. But that's a problem I wish we had more of! Falvey recently commented how much they like Miranda and just want to make sure he has time to learn some of the little things to make him successful when brought up. Judge that as you will. I honestly don't recall if he has to be added to the 40 man this season. I want to say he does, but can't remember correctly. If he doesn't, I don't think that would be about service time, but rather, just keeping an open spot for someone else. Personally, I think they are eager as hell to get the kid up here and get his feet wet and see what he can do. His versatility is a blessing as he may break in as a super-utility player. But there are a lot of moving parts before 2022 gets here. And that might include a move of Donaldson or Sano as part of the moving forward machine.

My "napkin" OF has Kepler, Buxton, Larnach and Kirilloff, (who will also play 1B), and a TBD. IMO, Celestino has a floor as a quality 4th OF who does it all. He was rushed out of necessity but will take that experience and learn from it. I'd love to have the re-invented Rwfsnyder back on a milb deal. But despite needing a SP as our #1 addition for 2022, and Pineda back or similar, and needing a couple solid pen arms, I just can't stress enough how important I think a quality 4th OF who bats RH and can play all 3 spots is to this team. We very much need someone to give Kepler and Larnach and AK days off against a quality LH. Maybe Kepler most of all. It let's everyone play more to their strengths. I don't care if it's by trade or FA, but said player shouldn't cost very much to add and could be hugely important. I digress a bit as it's supposed to be about questions ya'll have for Rocco and the FO.

Just to be clear, I haven't the slightest idea how good or bad Gordon actually is at SS. BUT, he has continued to play it in the minors. And the Twins used him there quite a bit in the last 2 ST's. My sentiment is it's time to see how good/bad/average he can be there. NOT as a starter, but can he play there as a utility player? A few pounds of muscle and continued opportunity MIGHT show him as a decent hitter with valuable speed. Being able to play multiple spots, including SS, makes him that much more valuable, potentially. Just boggles my mind they won't let him get the opportunity despite still playing him there.

#1] Some sort of universal profit sharing to all teams. It works for the NFL which remains the most important and influential example of a pro franchise, even with their warts. #2] if there is no salary cap, work on the proposed numbers presented currently and do a $200M and $80M max/minimum that just makes so sense it's crazy. #3] Universal DH. It's 40+ years too late but time. #4] VERY SMALL option, but if someone wants to trade picks for something, let them do it. They already include international $ being traded. #5] 2020 showed that an expanded roster in today's game actually made sense. The game has changed. I loved the 28 man roster in 2020. I'd push for that, or at least a 27 man version with a max 13 pitchers. #6] Just STOP with the idea that an expanded September roster takes away from the game with TWO additions.. It's just STUPID. History has shown that an expanded roster allows teams to bring up prospects to audition and get their feet wet. Some succeed early and some don't. But some BS arguement about the "integrity" of the game down the stretch is RIDICOULOUS! So a good team plays a bad team in September somehow is an advantage if they are playing prospects? So a bad team is somehow better if they don't? COME ON! Hell, I've seen many teams who have glimpsed the future with a prospect or two who added to hope for the future with a good Septmber. #7] Talk to managers and FO and decide if you want to keep the runner on 2nd rule. To me, it would be after the 10th at least. #8] Defensive shifts are fine. But the infield should have TWO guys on each side of the 2B bag. I am not yet ready to adopt robot umps until I see a little more data. So I will leave it as I have. Please tell me if you think I have it wrong.

This is very simple and yet complicated. Work with me here. I'M the mediator here, but YOU can be too! Q1] Gordon is a wonderful athlete with potential still. You've thought enough of his potential...despite illness and injury...to protect him the past couple of years. Athletically, there is no question he still needs to gain weight and muscle to truly advance his career, whether it be offensively OR even bringing strength to his throws as well. He has played a ton of SS in milb AND in ST. But WHY does he NOT play SS at the ML level to see if he can be a viable utility option there? You're kind of talking out both sides of your mouth here while asking him to adapt to CF at the ML level. In a lost season and looking forward to 2022, what's going on here? Q2] Jake Cave seems like a great guy and a good athlete and a "gamer". And I fully get 2020 was just a weird season. And I also understand Cave has been hurt virtually since the season began. And it sucks for him. But unless you really believe he's a perfect fit for 2022 when the roster SCREAMS for a RH OF bat, why is he getting time at this point? Is he getting time as a reward at this point? While Refsnyder may not be the perfect 4th OF for 2022, a similar player is what is needed. But with Buxton coming back soon, will you actually send Cave down and let Refsnyder continue to play and prove his worth? Q3] Any inquiry about Miranda is, I understand, complicated because you are so excited he's actually becoming what you hoped he would be. And I get being just a little more patient because you want confidence, experience, and understand the little things. But some of those things can only be learned at the ML level. And I understand there could be a roster crunch in 2022, but what is your thoughts about Miranda going forward? You simply CAN'T dismiss the most exciting player prospect you've had for years. What are your thoughts/plans? My TD compatriots will have further questions, but position player wise, these are my initial questions that need to be addressed SOON. Because with a month left in 2021, these might be some of the easiest questions to address. Other questions are up to the audience.

I made a long post in another thread about just letting him get readjusted to a routine and time zone changes. And I think that's still smart and fair. Just one more AAA start to settle in. But Maeda's injury may just wreck this idea. Albers may get a start, at least as an opener, to fill a spot/date. I just really don't want to see Gant get another start as I feel if he has any benefit to 2022 it's in the pen. I'd rather he focus on THAT. I still believe a healthy Dobnak has a chance to be a viable back end SP. But he's not close to ready right now. So whether we like it or not, Ryan is probably the next man up. The question is how starts juggle and set up to MAYBE allow him one more AAA start before a debut. Strotman is someone I am really, really interested in. I think he could be a major sleeper. He skipped an entire level post surgery and missed all of 2020. I just DON'T want to risk ruining a potentially fine arm and head out of desperation in a lousy, losing, and disappointing year. Ryan is next man up, and soon. A healthy Winder may be next.

I think we're sympatico on Kerrigan and Gore. A useful "extra" OF who could be useful and is definitely flying under the radar. And who cares what age Gore is, right? You move to the mound and suddenly you find a role. IF you hit MLB at 28yo or so and do well, does anyone care? Absolutely agree on Whitefield as well. Of course I love his story! A hard softball leaguer from Australia who the Twins sign? How can you not love a story like that? And because of that, he's been a guy I've been following for some time. Just feels like he's been around for a while. And then I rezlize he's still only 24yo and teased us with a solid 2016-17 at rookie and low A ball before a pair of bad seasons in 2018-19. And after a brief 2020 ML appearance and time at St Paul, he's suddenly having a solid year for Wichita. Absolutely agree he is un-refined and needs work. The K's need to come down, better contact has to be made, and he's way too big, strong and athletic to show so little power. But what might he be with an off-season and a return to AA as a 25yo still learning the game? Not expecting greatness here, but could he be a bloomer in 2022?

While I think it's way, way too early to speculate FA at this point...auditions are ongoing for a few guys and "room" and "need" could change via trades still... I'm game! 1] The Twins need a quality SP. "Duh, Doc!" Even with Donaldson on board, even with Sano on board, we can speculate $40-50M to work with. Could this FO pull off another Odorizzi or Maeda trade deal. Yes. They've done it before. But there are so many interesting arms out there, you HAVE to consider the possibilities of $ spent while keeping your system in tact. I can't stress this enough, the Twins made a major move for both Darvish and Wheeler the past few years. Darvish got an extra year guaranteed and the Twins were then out. Wheeler made it clear he wasn't leaving the east coast, so we were toast almost immediately. Thor for 4-5yrs at $20-25M with incentives and maybe an out clause after 2? Intrigued! (Assuming the Mets don't step up with a QO that might change the field for EVERYONE). Gausman, Stroman? Gausman might want to pull a "west coast" version of Wheeler. Stroman has been tied to the Twins for years now. Is it time? Or could we be talking about a short term, high risk but high reward deal for Greinke or Verlander? Many ways to go, and none of them wrong. I am somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30 they will sign a quality FA SP vs pulling off a trade. It just makes too much sense to me. 2] They are going to re-sign Pineda, OR, someone they feel is his equivalent on a 1, 1+1, or 2yr deal to stabilize the #3 spot. 3] They ARE going to sign someone to play SS. But sorry, it's NOT going to be one of the BIG options. (Caveat, Donaldson gone could change thjs approach, but how much $ do we have to eat is a MAJOR caveat as well). The pieces are intact for a quality lineup with depth. They need a placeholder at SS for now. I think Galvis js a great fit. I'm also in on Iglesias. Neither is perfect, but each could be a good temporary fit. Don't shoot me to tell you Simmons could be back on a 1yr deal. His offense before thjs season was at least average. 4] Despite their belief in building a pen, they WILL sign a quality pen arm on a 2yr deal. They WON'T drop $10M to do so! Where it gets complicated is Colome has 2nd year option for around $5M. Except for a recent bad game, he's looked like the veteran they THOUGHT they were signing from about June on. Nobody wants to hear this, but history is important as well as a strong finish. They either keep him, or spend $5-6-ishM on an arm. 5] They will then spend another $2.5-4M-ish on a Robles type arm for depth and competition hoping they guess right. They believe in their ability to build a pen but don't want to risk another implosion. And they don't want to just suddenly convert legitimate SP arms to the pen. 6] When looking towards 2022, I absolutely believe the FO understands and appreciates how much this roster needs a quality 4th OF who can bring a decent offensive game as well as being counted on as a viable defensive option. They HAVE to have somebody to semi-platoon with Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff and be able to fill in behind Buxton so Kepler isn't the only option. Personally, I think the FO and staff believe the re-invented Refsnyder is for real. Not to the degree he's produced so far, he's going to regress to a more medium norm. But will they bank on him? I'm thinking they will look long and hard at RH OF option. And that shouldn't be an expensive alternative/option. Summary: A $25M SP. Incentives don't count and ANY team gladly pays them. Pineda or similar veteran for $8-10M to stabilize the rotation. A $5-6M RP whether it be Colome or replacement. A secondary RP, possible bounce back, who is $2.5-4M arm. A filll-jn SS that is anywhere from $3M-5M based on what I've proposed. A maybe RH 4th OF for $2-4M. While the SP $ are debatable, the other $ presented safe to maybe high. So we're talking $50M-ish. For a team that talks about competing in 2022, and may yet shed additional salary, anything close to $50M in FA additions should not only be safe, but easy to manage.

This is not directed at anyone, just a comment I have to state in general terms. Everyone just needs to stop focusing on the ages of prospects. Guys are ready when they are ready, whether it be 22yo or 25yo-ish. What matters is what they do when they arrive. But we all have to remember, using Ryan as an example, a 25yo SP is really a 24yo in regard to development time. And that's the same for all of our prospects, pitchers or position players. You just can't dismiss an entire lost season of experience and development even if some kids were at reserve sites in 2020. You just can't dismiss what was lost. As far as Ryan in particular, I'm very excited about him. The FB, location and presence seems legit. Like ANY young pitcher, he's going to have to harness his other offerings. In the 1st inning video clip I saw an amazing change, a bad one, and one that probably should have been called a strike. I want to see the kid getting his feet wet before this year is done. I think there's a reasonable chance we will. But he needs time to get his feet/legs/head re-acclimated. He quit being a milb pitcher over a month ago to prepare for the Olympics. He traveled almost half a world away to do so, got traded to a different organization while there, comes back a half a world distance, and gets a single start at this point. I don't care how much boxy the kid has, that's a LOT to deal with in a month plus time frame. How about we just let him settle in for another start or two and then talk about a promotion to dip his feet in the Ml pool?

Don't even have to comment about AK. Dobnak is a very easy choice and not because he has some committed $. He's still a relatively young and inexperienced SP still learning. We've seen glimpses of what he can do when healthy. You don't walk away from that. Same with Colina. Healthy, there's a good chance he's up with the Twins for about half this year with Alcala, honing his stuff and gaining experience. Smeltzer MIGHT be kept as he's LH and has looked solid at times. Agree his ceiling is a 5th SP and is probably a useful BP piece. I'm going to root for the guy whatever happens. But I think a numbers crunch will leave him off the 40 man. I'd like to see him back on a milb deal. I'd also like Stashak to remain in the organization on a milb deal. He's shown real promise, even in SSS, but I don't think there's enough there to warrant a 40 man spot at this point. Garlick just isn't a fit at this point. Rooker is younger and has more potential. Celestino is better than both, but a different type of talent. And I think it's time we just admit that Refsnyder, a former decent prospect, really has re-invented himself as at least a decent bat with solid OF play.