Dman

If you go to https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/international/ you can see who is likely to sign with the Twins. Ariel Castro at number 11 Looks like the best of the bunch. Could be another Mercedes type pick. At 31 the Twins look to pick up one of the top catchers. Guy is only 5'9" with average tools but looks to have the arm to stick. At38 Hendry Chivili is there typical Shortstop pick that doesn't work out. He is a projection pick with average tools across the board right now. At 16 there is so much extra projection risk it is no wonder most of these guys flame out but the Twins balanced out their top picks pretty well this year. Here's hoping all three work out along with some lottery ticket types they pick up. Maybe another Arraez in there somewhere.

I have been watching Moran in the system for what seems like forever and have always been impressed with his K rate but the Walks eventually just brought my hopes for him down. I would not trust him in high leverage just yet but if he can harness his stuff just a bit more he could reach elite status. Been saying that for a long time and hopefully he is ready to prove he has the consistency to make it happen. We need all the great pen arms we can find.

I get your concern and don't disagree but Gray, Mahle and Ober all Spent time on the IL and Maeda is coming back from TJ surgery. While Lopez might be no better a pitcher he would be there for insurance. I wouldn't do the deal for Lopez if Arraez is included but Lopez sure could cover if the injury bug bites the Twins again.

I don't know if Arraez fits long term with the Twins or not and I get trading players at their peak value and this is Luis's peek value. However, it feels like dealing him this year is one year too early. Lewis is out until the end of the year. We don't know where Brooks Lee will land and Somewhat Luis clone with eye at the plate Jullien is unproven beyond AA. A lot of those questions should be answered after this year and then you could decide if there is still room for the little engine that could (Arraez). The Twins need his bat pretty badly this coming year and yes they could use better pitching as well but I think I would just hold off and see how things shake out and if needed do a deadline deal. I know that no one really wants Lopez but if the Twins can work a trade for Kepler and a little more to get him I think that would be prudent. When you look at the Berrios and Mahle deals they included players that were close to being MLB ready and players in or close to in the top 100. In this case the Marlins get an actual MLB player in Kepler and if they threw in Larnach who is technically another MLB player with lots of years of control and maybe a couple of lottery tickets that seems in range given some of these other deals. Don't like Larnach then how about Martin who is close to ready and can play infield and outfield. Maybe the Twins sweeten it by taking on some of the money to even the money out. I think that is a fair ask for two years of Lopez and that is something the Twins can afford IMO. If that isn't enough and it probably isn't then I am probably out on Lopez but if the Marlins can be flexible about working a trade around Kepler then I think that would help this team. Would a deal for Arraez to get Cabrera or Luzardo be worth it? Maybe. I don't know if I trust Luzardo but maybe Cabrera. Still Arraez would be a high price to pay and that is what it will cost to get one of those arms.

Correa just make this team stronger. Shortstop has generally always been a weakness for this club so turning that into a strength is important. I don't know why the bats were so up and down last year and why they seemed to fail with the bases loaded but there still is a lot of talent on offense and hopefully things go a bit better next year. The pen early and starting pitching after the deadline pretty much doomed this team. Buxton being hurt so early and trying to play through the knee issues hurt the team as well. Lot's of injuries last year so if they can just stay healthy and improve the pen a little this team should be fighting for the division. Without Correa this year was going to be tough. With him this team has a chance.

I don't know why the Twins signed Gallo unless it was to replace Max. Otherwise you have two almost identical players vying for the exact same position at close to the same cost. It doesn't make sense to keep both. Also they are likely going to add more players yet and the Twins payroll is pretty much maxed at about 145M right now. Getting 8M back is likely going to be important. Other than Gordon and in the future possibly Lewis there really isn't any player in the system that can replace Max's defense in right. However his bat has been so bad Larnach has been better at the plate and even Kirilloff and his bad wrist was as good as Kep Offensively so not losing much on offense even with the young guys replacing him. Also the Twins have a glut of outfielders on the 40 man and they need at least one more right handed bat for the outfield. So again it makes sense to move a left handed bat from the outfield and no one helps the payroll more than moving Kepler. I don't know if the Twins will just do a straight up prospect trade, Trade him for a right handed outfield bat or make him part of a larger package but the writing is on the wall. He is no longer a good fit for this team. I think trading him is pretty much a done deal just a matter of when at this point.

I could see them trading Kepler and Larnach. Kepler because he is redundant and Wallner could fill that spot if necessary. Larnach because I believe he has the most Value after Kepler. He was solid in left defensively and the bat looked very promising until he got hurt. I don't think Kirilloff has much value at this time because that wrist injury could be the end for him I doubt another team wants to take on that risk. Celestino is one of the few right handed outfield bats and he doesn't appear to have much power. Probably more valuable to Twins than someone else. His bat got so bad mid season we all want him starting in AAA this year. The tough one for me right now is Arraez. This team could use his discerning eye at the plate and ability to get on base but long term he is the odd man out. Seems more prudent to see how this team performs and make a decision at the deadline as he could be an important part of the lineup. That being said if he could fetch a difference making arm then they might need that more as I see needed games off for Gray, Mahle and Maeda. Trading Gray seems like it would be an odd move. They went all in to get this team to this point subtracting him makes no sense IMO. I don't think they have to get rid of any utility guys at this time. If Gordon is considered an outfielder then they have about right number on the 40 man. Other than Kepler and possibly Larnach it seems like they have time to wait before clearing things out for the infield or outfield. Still lot's of questions on Jullien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Martin and arms Varland and SWR. Kirlloffs wrist and Larnach still hasn't completely proven himself. They get two 40 man spots back around spring training when Canterino and Paddack go on the injured list so there will be room to add yet. I am not convinced they will do a big trade but most years they do seem to get something done around spring training.so we will see.

Since Martin doesn't have much of a power profile and the other players do he seems like the odd man out to me. I would like to give him one more year before trading him though as his value is low right now. No one is blocking him until he performs better though. He could be a right handed Nick Gordon if the Twins hang onto him but he is definitely a wait and see for me. I like Lewis in the outfield especially in right field. If Buxton is hurt he can move to center. He has the arm and great range for right and his bat should fit the profile as well. He certainly could be used in the infield as well as needed but with Correa at short I see Lewis as an awesome defensive right fielder. Lee should be able to slot into whatever role he is needed in the infield. Being a switch hitter he is very valuable in the lineup. Depending on how the Twins like Miranda at 3rd he could take Polanco's spot at 2nd Hard to say but the Twins will find room for Lee. I think the Twins end up moving on from Kepler, Polanco and Arraez at some point so there would be room for these players if needed. They still have to prove they belong which is no easy task.

It is about time they moved an outfielder off the 40 man. I really liked how Garlick hit lefties and have to imagine a team will pick him up. Maybe the Twins can get something in trade for him yet.

Looking at the 40 man it would help if they could trade away two Outfielders especially if they view Gordon as more of an outfielder than infielder. I think the two most valuable outfielders to trade would be Kepler and Larnach. Kepler because Gallo make him redundant and removing his salary helps offset Correa's and Larnach because Wallner looks very similar except he has a plus arm and Larnach has more trade value. Currently the 40 man has 9 Outfielders on it and generally you want 7 maximum. Also at the end of this year the Twins will likely need to add Martin, Rodriguez and maybe Urbina which will make the outfield even more crowded. Not saying they have to trade anyone right away but it would help with 40 man management. I love Arraez but if moving him gets them something they need they probably should do it but it needs to be the right deal because he could be a big part of the offense this year. At any rate the Twins have options and don't need to be in a hurry to trade anyone but they will need to trade some of these players eventually. There just isn't going to be room for everyone.

This is just a risk the Twins almost had to take. They need to plug the hole at short for the next 2 to 4 years and Correa fills it. He can be an elite bat with the bad ankle and can play elite defense at short on the bad ankle. He can run the bases on the bad ankle. If stealing bases aggravates it then don't steal bases. I am not a doctor but he is only 28 and odds are the plate should be fine the next 4 years. Any player can have a serious injury at any time although Correa may be slightly more predisposed to injury I don't think it is a huge deal and neither did the Twins or the Doctors they used. The Twins bought 6 years of Correa's prime and gave themselves a way out as he ages. I think they did just fine.

I guess I see the attraction. In 2021 his WHIP was essentially 1.00 with a solid K rate and an ERA of 1.66. Whatever changes were made it blew up on him in 2022. His main issue was giving up the long ball. 25 of them in less than 100 innings. That will inflate your WHIP and ERA in a hurry. As noted in this article the fastball looks too hittable and looks like another Texas pitcher Henriquez who the Twins have in their system. If the Twins can solve the meatballs he is serving up there is a decent chance for an elite pen arm as he has two plus pitches according to MLB.com . Although for a plus fastball it sure gets tagged a lot. This only works if they can tame the fastball and have him keep the ball in the park. Seems unlikely but maybe they fix one of these guys for once.

Correa Signing fills a huge hole at Shortstop and gives the team another potent right handed bat which are in short supply on this team. With Correa they can now mix and match the future infield With right handed bats Miranda, Lewis, Correa. Polanco\Lee, Martin or go more lefty with Gordon, Correa, Arraez, Jullien, Lee\Polanco. Some of those players can also mix and match in the outfield. Correa makes this team stronger while the young guys earn their way up. if the pitching holds up this signing might have saved the season. Still need good health and bounce backs from the younger players but the Twins are in much better shape now than before the signing. Oh and only having that high AAV for 6 years helps down the road as well. This deal is about as good as we could have hoped for.

So just how bad was that Mets deal? 200M over 6 years all of his prime years is the best deal I could have imagined. If he meets the vesting option add another 4 years at 70M Absolutely perfect. Am I dreaming? Why would the Mets or Giants not do this deal? They don't want the high AAV? This sets the Twins up to give out larger contracts if some of the young players turn into stars or superstars. Like I said I couldn't imagine a more perfect deal for the Twins. Correa just needs to stay healthy and bring that 4 WAR a year or so and he will really, really, help this team.

So just how bad was that Mets deal? 200M over 6 years all of his prime years is the best deal I could have imagined. If he meets the vesting option add another 4 years at 70M Absolutely perfect. Am I dreaming. Why would the Mets or Giants not so this deal? They don't want the high AAV? This sets the Twins up to give out larger contracts if some of the yong players turn into stars or superstars. Like I said I couldn't imagine a more perfect deal for the Twins. Correa just needs to stay healthy and bring that 4 WAR a year or so and he will really, really, help this team.

He probably will but why not try to squeeze more out of them for guaranteed dollars? Cohen will likely cave he has the money. If they get the AAV down to around 25M they can trade Esco that gives then 10M back so inserting Correa won't break the bank at 15M more to the payroll if they structure it right.

Correa wants to be with the Mets that is why they exclusively negotiated with them the past two weeks or so. The only other team seriously interested in Correa luckily for Boras is the Twins. They have one known offer of 10\285 out there guaranteed and they don't seem as worried as the Mets about the Physical. If the Mets don't want to reach that bar in guarantee's even if injury then maybe Correa moves on but most likely this is a leverage play to get the Mets to give more guaranteed money hard to say at this point as Boras gave NY a lot of time to get this done. Have to believe the Mets are close to the Twins number in guaranteed money so guessing the Twins would have to move the bar a bit to come out on top? Not sure how this is going to play out but it should be done soon as everyone seems to be tired of the drama on this deal. There are only two players for Correa and final offers appear to be in so someone has to win.

I think you are right. Correa is someone who cares about his legacy and building HOF career. Much easier to do that on a team that seems likely to compete for a WS every year. With the lineup they have pitchers are more likely to pitch to him as well. The Mets are far and away his first choice which shows his words about MN were more of a fall back position. In case no one else really wants me I always have MN. Yeah if the Giants are out there really isn't much of a market for Correa other than the Mets and the Twins. Maybe the Cubs? The Dodgers, LA, SD, Phili, NYY, seem done spending big. If would be odd if Boston was in after letting Bogaerts go. So Cohen is right Correa needs the Mets more than the Mets need Correa. So if he wants to go there it looks like it will take a discount of some kind to get there. Borras is up to his old tricks holding out for more. Given the market he might end up needing to get Correa another short term deal.

I can't really argue whether they thought other teams might think the plate in his leg would be an issue once you get past 7 years or so and with 12 and 13 year offers that could be a big deal. They did have the advantage of having his medicals and knowing his potential health issues so maybe that is why the furthest they would go was 10 years and tried to up the AAV. Still odds are they would have no idea what those other teams felt would be acceptable risk. So yeah unlikely they would know for certain the Giants would renege on their offer. On that point you have me but whether by luck or circumstance it appears their number was a good one for actual value of the player.

But in the end even though they offered that he didn't get it so it doesn't reflect his market. They could have offered him 400M or 500M if he doesn't get it he was never worth 400M or 500M or 350M. Even the Mets didn't pick up the 350M offer. If his market ends up around the Twins number then it seems they read it correctly to me because that will have been actual price paid. His actual market regardless of whether they thought the Giants or Mets wouldn't want to give him 12 or 13 years because of the leg will be the number he signs for. If the Mets are balking at 315M it sure looks like his actual value will be right around what the Twins offered. So yeah I think they had his value pegged pretty well. I gave the FO a really hard time as I thought 300M was the starting line and they never made it there. It looks like I am going to be wrong and in the end they are going to be pretty close.

To me it doesn't matter if they knew or not but it looks like the value they placed on him was about right. I said it would take 300M or more but I think he falls short of that now at least in guaranteed money.

If 9/270 is the offer I think given the circumstances that is more than a fair deal with all the balking other teams are doing. Still I would offer a 10th year as a team option with 10M buyout just to be sure. From what I have read online and no one knows for sure but it seems like the Mets are fine with the first 7 years at the 26.25 AAV they offered on the initial 12 year deal so that puts them comfortable with the first 184M of this deal. If they want injury protection on the leg for the next 5 years and lets say that means they pay half of the 26.25 for the next 5 years then that comes out to around 250M after 12 years so not that far off of the Twins offer granted with more years. If the Mets we willing to stretch to 9 years like the Twins with only 3 years of discount if injury to the leg then their deal comes out even closer to what MN if offering at about 280M through 12 years. So I don't think this thing is a done deal for Minnesota yet. I mean I know players need to be excited about the team that ponies up the money for them but I am a little surprised that given how much he supposedly liked MN that his camp is so willing to work toward the Mets versus MN. Maybe Boras needs to keep Cohn happy as he is likely to have more clients that need big money contracts and the higher markets are better to work with. Running the numbers I still think MN falls just short but not as short as I originally believed. Turns out the FO had a good offer from the start I just couldn't see it at the time. If Correa wants to be a Met he will be Met if wants to be a Twin he will be a Twin. The Twins did their part as Correa asked them to. Will he do his part? That remains to be seen.

I am most bullish on Jullien possibly making a difference this coming season. He is on the 40 man. He has a good eye at the plate so if struggling with the bat still has the ability to get on base. He has power in his profile and works counts. He does everything you want a good hitter to do. Defense is not his calling card but if he can just get close to average somewhere his bat will carry him. I expect Brooks to have a good year but not being on the 40 man and if the Twins have a bit of stacked infield I find it hard to believe he would be up with the team before September and most likely next year. If the Twins are out of it at the deadline and they make trades to clear things up maybe he gets a shot but with potential service time implications I just doubt we see much of Lee at the MLB level this year. Really hoping to see Martin rebound and if he does he could be the Twins right handed version of Nick Gordon. He is on the 40 man and he can play 2nd, center and left field and supposedly short if you can live with the errors. If he gets his Mojo back he too has a good chance to play around the deadline or if injuries mount. Jordon is a total wild card. If he pitches effectively at all in AAA odds are they will use him this year at some point. If he is just average to bad with the same high WHIP he might be in danger of being removed from the 40 man. This could be a career defining year for Balazovich. It is a nice group of players and I hope they all have great years and make their way to the big leagues.

Yep but you are still dependent on someone with power like Judge to drive him in. Agreed not everyone can do it but you said earlier that you didn't understand why power developing power was so important. Power drives in runs with doubles and HR's. They make pitchers pitch around power bats so OBP can be higher so average can be lower. Power is the key that is why it is important. That is why teams try to cultivate it. Not saying other skills are not important just that adding power makes players more desirable and better able to help the team win games.

Yep totally agree. Hard to have a team full of hitters with power, avg, OBP and speed. The question was asked why power is so important and just wanted to throw my two cents in. Getting on base is important. Not making outs is important. So there are other ways to contribute but when all is said and done if those skills overlap and someone else adds power to their profile they are gonna take the other players job.