Otto von Ballpark

Agreed, and I think people are holding Hicks to too high of a standard. Mental gaffes and career-long inconsistency don't just go away with a little extra seasoning. It was important to finally get him a good start in 2015, and not repeat the Aprils of 2013-2014, but he's not going to become a completely different person/player in the next 2-4 weeks (just as he hasn't in the past 4 weeks). He's a talented but streaky player, age 25, with 5 more seasons of team control (the first 2 at serf wages), and he's finally on a hot streak again. He is infinitely more worthy of playing in MLB next to Torii Hunter and under Paul Molitor right now than Jordan Schafer.

What are you going to know in 2-4 weeks that you don't know now? Frankly I don't even think a coach's judgement should change that much in that little time. We've actually never been through the "Aaron Hicks is ready" show quite like this. He's got as many PA's in 2015 now as he had in those 2013-2014 spring trainings *combined*. And he's got virtually the same excellent OPS as those combined spring trainings, except now with more significantly more BBs, fewer Ks, and a higher ISO (and that's not even discounting things like that fluke wind-aided 3 HR spring training game, which by itself is worth like .100 in SLG/OPS).

Good for three weeks? He's been limiting his Ks for 3 weeks (which is awesome), but his isolated power and discipline (OBP-AVG) were actually better during the first week of the season than his last 3 weeks. I just don't see what 2 more weeks in AAA honestly means to a guy in Hicks' situation. He's not going to be fully "cured" of confidence/inconsistency problems with 2 more weeks or even another month in AAA. Strike while the iron is hot, I say.

July is insane. Buxton could/should be up in July. And neither of those moves (Hicks now, Buxton July) would have anything to do with our 2015 record or how Schafer/Robinson perform (given their 4th/5th OF upside). These moves would have to do with preparing for 2016. A couple months starting in CF for both Hicks and Buxton will aid our offseason planning (and trade deadline planning, in Hicks' case) and should be beneficial for the players too going into 2016.

I fully endorsed sending Hicks to AAA to begin the year, regardless of his spring training or our other CF options. That said, if a month of .330/.412/.553 with a career high ISO and almost a career low K% (while maintaining his usual plus BB%) isn't enough to swap him for an under-performing Jordan Schafer (who's had nagging injuries?), then the Twins really should have gotten a better alternative for CF this past offseason. Throughout his career, Hicks has been a bit Jeckyl-and-Hyde, not unlike Pelfrey. An extra month of AAA isn't going to change that. If he's having a Jeckyl year now, let's take advantage.

We do have yet to play a game against the AL East, or the two division leaders in the West, or interleague (those 4 games against St Louis will be a tough test -- although too bad we're not getting our "rivalry" games against Milwaukee right now!). Last year, when we started 23-21, we played a better mix of competition than we have so far this year. Our two sweep losses were to Oakland and the Dodgers, who were the best teams in baseball at the time IIRC. But otherwise, we had performed well against each division, including 4 series wins against 4 different AL East teams, a sweep of KC, etc.

I don't think you can plan around a player being as good as quickly as Howard or Lincecum, though. Howard and Lincecum were both older, more polished, immediate superstars, and had a lot more "obvious" value (HR, RBI, Cy Youngs, as opposed to speed and defense) than Buxton. And as much as we love the comparable, I don't think we can plan on him being Trout 2.0 either. I probably under-estimated it, but I'd still guess that $10 mil is the absolute top-end cost of Super-2, with something like $5 mil being the more likely cost (which would be reduced further by any buyout deal). And with that, you can get two extra months of MLB contributions from the player too, and you still reserve the right to re-evaluate and demote the player if necessary, pausing the service time clock. Injury would also be a factor that can reduce future earnings, and we know that Buxton and his style of play are not immune to that! Which could reduce the above numbers a bit further. Wil Myers and Gregory Polanco are a couple guys who came up after the Super 2 deadline recently, but the delay probably didn't gain their teams much of anything (although it probably didn't cost them much either).

Well, the CF problem (and more generally the OF problem) started when Buxton was barely a glimmer in our eyes 2-3 years ago. And he was reassigned from MLB camp (despite good health) very quickly in both 2013 and 2014 spring trainings, so I am not sure the team was really expecting to fast-track him at those points. But I hope you're right about this past offseason. That would mean they promote Buxton aggressively, and perhaps even skip him ahead of Hicks. Would be fun to see!

Hunter or more likely Arcia could shift to DH too. I hope Vargas is heating up, but I don't know if he's untouchable. (Nor is Arcia, for that matter.) Hicks might be improved but not untouchable, everyday good either. I'm thinking if these guys are all healthy and ready to contribute, we can fit them all in (remember, Eduardo Escobar started 4 straight games in LF even before Arcia's injury). Imagine having legit bats off the bench and/or defensive replacement options...

If you are referring to Trout, the Angels played no such service time games with him. I think the Bryant situation was notable because such a move from a big-market team has been rare. The main culprits, I think, have been the Rays and Astros. And service time is the big one, and the Twins are already past that being an issue unless they hold him down until May 2016. Super Two might mean cost us a couple extra million if he turns out to be great, but that should be of no consideration to the Twins now (and I don't believe that it is).

Mauer struck out once in high school, and he still got to skip AAA.

With a pitching prospect (and to a lesser degree, any prospect), the value of an extra season of control 7 years from now is highly speculative. If you are confident in your current evaluation of him (and the Marlins track record suggests such confidence is warranted), I'd rather err on the side of present-day performance. Look at the Twins and Liriano -- they did not play any service time games with him in 2005-2006, and in fact didn't get much value out of his first 3 months service time either (September call-up and then almost 2 months of mop-up bullpen work). But his later injury (not unexpected, by the way) made it all moot in terms of cost/leverage. Lo and behold, Fernandez also suffered a not-unpredictable injury. He hasn't lost any service time due to it yet, but his lost season will likely lower his future cost and leverage (and his recovery may easily warrant a minor league assignment which could gain them that extra year of control anyway), even if he does eventually return to being a star pitcher.

That is also true. But they are not shy about promoting prospects (and they have a very good track record about it).

But that means if you call him up for September 2015, you have to keep him down until almost June 2016 to get that extra year. Given the options the Twins currently have, if Buxton plays even modestly well, it might be very difficult to keep him down that long in 2016. The Angels did not extend their years of control in their demotions of Mike Trout. (Of course, he was up for about 2 months in 2011, and down for less than a month to begin 2012.)

Pelfrey's multiple Twins contracts reminded me a bit of Nick Blackburn -- Oklahoma born favorite of Gardenhire (although Pelfrey moved from OK at a young age -- he was also born on an air force base, like Gardy). Both decent MLB pitchers for awhile, but I suspect the Twins were more willing to seek/sign these guys and give larger guarantees than other teams. (Not sure I remember why this is in Eddie Rosario thread, a move I generally endorse assuming he starts playing.)

It wouldn't even be the first time they did it with Arcia. He was sent back to AAA in both May and July 2013 and again briefly in May 2014 after his DL/rehab stint.

Tuesday night, second row above the visitor's dugout (section 12, row 6, on TV every time a RHB comes up!), $32 after discount code: http://www.ticketkingonline.com/ResultsTicket.aspx?evtid=2412289 Champions Club, section 10, $90 after discount code too. (In case you haven't noticed, I am posting all of the tickets deals I wish I could take advantage of. )

Trout was promoted about this time in 2012, BUT he had already appeared in MLB in 2011. As Brock said, his initial promotion was direct from AA on July 8.

Thanks for the link. I was most intrigued by the last section of that article, under the heading "Taxi squad." It seems the Twins and TR consciously delay DL and call-up decisions as long as possible. (Ultimately only left us short-handed for one game this time.) That I don't agree with, especially when the players aren't that great anyway. Otherwise, the Rosario decision seems fine to me. I'd prefer to move on from Schafer too but Rosario over Hicks for 15 days is okay by me.

Hitting well in 12 games has not been part of the Aaron Hicks Experience (so far).

That's fair. However, it seems that some would use that as a justification for waiting to bring up Pinto until they are ready to demote Vargas. I would say, don't wait. Pinto can get take Herrmann's starts at catcher now, and spell Vargas a couple days a week too. We all thought that was the plan before Pinto's concussion, so I see no reason why not to try it now. (I suspect the Twins don't want to "rock the boat" during this hot streak, but Herrmann backup catcher is a minimal part of said streak.) If and when you determine that Vargas needs to go to AAA, you can recall Herrmann is he's still the best fit for the roster.

Agreed on Robinson being a quality 4th OF. Just ruminated on that in another thread: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17867-stick-a-fork-in-hunter-he-is-done/?p=332596 However, I think one of TR's faults, at least in his second tenure, has been his inability to find many cheap useful pieces like this. Escobar is one of the few he's added that has really stuck. Even in the bullpen, a good place for such players, it seems TR has missed more than he's hit recently.

They can call him up at any time and not burn an option. They only burn an option in 2015 if they call him up, then send him back to the minors for 20 or more days during the remainder of this season. So yeah, you don't want to call him up now as a 15 day injury replacement, unless you really think he could stick. But by July, you probably don't have to be too concerned with burning an option, even if you think you might send him back down for the last few weeks of the minor league season. And yeah, option years generally aren't too critical for elite prospects. If you really need to demote Buxton to AAA three years from now, the lack of that option year is probably the least of your concerns about him.

Herrmann has never played 1B professionally (well, B-Ref shows one game at 1B in the minors, with zero chances). Pinto doesn't have much experience at the position either, but B-Ref says he played a couple games there over the winter. Outside of Vargas, I think Plouffe is the backup 1B, which makes sense since we have 2 utility infielders on the roster already who could easily cover 3B (and probably 1B, for that matter). Herrmann's positional flexibility has resulted in 1 inning away from catcher over the season's first month. I don't think it's that important. In any case, I am not sure that a fringe player needs to "deserve" a demotion, at least any more than already indicated by Herrmann's .655 season OPS, .556 career OPS, and his limited use at catcher (it's been his combined MLB/MiLB minority position the past two seasons). Waiting for such players to "deserve" a demotion is how you wind up holding more interesting players in AAA too long, and/or have W-L records like the 2011-2014 Twins.

Here's my ticket report: Tuesday night, 3rd row Champions Club seats are $139/each right now (or $125 after DAILYDOUBLE discount code). If recent weekday games are any indication, similar prices may soon be available for Wednesday and Thursday too. I expect you will see Dugout Box tickets in the $30-40 range too, if you don't already. (Stubhub shows a lot of ticket inventory left, so you may see more pop up on Ticket King too.) Go Twins!