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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Article: Grading Molitor's Early Returns
Otto von Ballpark replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
According to this, the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Rockies also did it in the early goings this season: http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/More-teams-experiment-with-batting-pitcher-8th-6227286.php But yeah, Maddon has taken it to the next level for the Cubs. Molitor didn't bat the pitcher 8th in Pittsburgh last month, so I wonder if it was primarily about batting Buxton ninth. Will be interesting to see our next lineup in an NL park. -
Yes, that's where my concern generally lies too, and while he hasn't been great in those areas, he's far from disastrous. (I'd prefer if he was closer to his age/position peers in power too, but that's not a huge deal yet.) Still very early, of course. None of the HS position player first rounders from last year are doing much of anything yet. Hopefully Gordon can start to separate himself from the pack this summer.
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Here is a list of first round high school SS draftees: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=pos_round&pos=SS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&from_type_hs=1#draft_stats::none The one that jumps out as a potential comparable is Francisco Lindor, a valuable glove who was predicted to stick at shortstop. But even he topped Gordon's current A-ball stats, and he did it a year younger than Gordon too.
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Actually, according to Fangraphs he is the 4th youngest (Chang was born a few months before Gordon, although Fangraphs age sort does not appear to factor in months): http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=11&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=2,a This sort of surprised me. He's young for his league, but not that young. He does not appear to be distinguishing himself in performance from his age peers: All four of the other shortstops age 19 or below were international signings, with only one netting a signing bonus above six figures. By requiring the 5th pick in the draft and a $3.85 million bonus, Gordon is comparatively much riskier.
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To be fair, this attitude isn't unique to the Twins -- most forecasters had Gordon ranked pretty high last June and cited similar reasons. Not that I like that reasoning. People often like to say certain HS draftees are "raw" and require more patience like Kohl Stewart because they played other sports etc. Well, the opposite is true for Gordon, who has been playing baseball full-time since he was a child, and whose father was a millionaire pro baseball player living in Florida which gave Nick access to the best instruction, facilities, and opportunities imaginable for baseball development. And indeed we've seen some of that polish, in his speed, athleticism, and shortstop projection. Unfortunately, we haven't seen it yet in his bat, which is the one component where I don't think his "baseball gene" alone can carry him far in the pro's. By comparison, his brother Dee Gordon was basically a .300 hitter from the get-go in the minor leagues, stole 70 bases in A ball, and never struck out as much as Nick currently is. Admittedly, Dee was older when he went pro, but not a ton -- roughly a year and a half ahead of Nick, thanks to community college. But Dee primarily played basketball until he was a high school senior (he wasn't drafted out of high school at all), was drafted 127th overall compared to 5th, and is also 3 inches shorter than Nick for those that like to project based on size.
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Article: The Twins $55 Million Question
Otto von Ballpark replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
5/100 isn't that bad. In fact, given his age, present health, and performance, it's probably a selling point. If Tulo was a FA today, he would blow that number away. Not that I advocate a blockbuster trade for him, but he's still pretty good.- 55 replies
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Article: The Twins $55 Million Question
Otto von Ballpark replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree. Milone has been stashed as a 6th starter in AAA for much of the past year, across two different organizations, he's had a few good starts for us, but I don't see why his role would have suddenly changed now. (Although I'd love to see him toss another couple gems to make things interesting. ) I think Nolasco could be held out longer too, and eased back into pitching (read: bullpen duty) if Pelfrey and company are still healthy and effective.- 55 replies
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Article: The Twins $55 Million Question
Otto von Ballpark replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the prospect names would have to be more notable than the other two names you mention.- 55 replies
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Yup. Four straight balls to #9 hitter Miguel Cairo was a clue that things weren't going to end well as the top of the lineup faced Nathan a second time. The 4-pitch walk to Jeter should have made that abundantly clear. (He also began the A-Rod at-bat with a ball, then a called strike, before the fateful double on Nathan's 49th pitch of the night.) For comparison, Mariano Rivera never threw more than 49 pitches in a postseason game (he did throw exactly 49 in his first postseason appearance, innings 12-15 of ALDS Game 2 in 1995 when he was still ostensibly a starter / long reliever). Also notable, Shannon Stewart was still in LF for A-Rod's double, with Lew Ford parked on the bench. Hard to tell on primitive video at the time, but any time a ball bounces over the wall, you have to wonder if a better outfielder would have made a difference.
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Gardenhire joined the MLB coaching staff in 1991, so I doubt he knew any of the 2002 Twins players from their time in the minors (with the exception of their time in big league spring training camp, obviously). Radke, Guardado, and Hawkins were the longest tenured Twins by 2002, and they didn't even sign with the Twins organization until 1991. (Gardenhire didn't even manage Mike Trombley in the minors, who ignominiously ended his career back with the Twins in 2002.) The rest of the article is spot-on (unfortunately).
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Levi Michael has been exclusively a second baseman this season, as he was last season (with the exception of a few SS appearances in a rookie league rehab stint last year).
- 19 replies
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- alex wimmers
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Wimmers did have a nice 4 game start to his pro career, with 23 Ks in 15 innings in high-A ball. But that was the end of the good times for him until now. I remember him described as a college control/finesse pitcher, maybe a lesser Kyle Gibson (or Tommy Milone). Is that still accurate? (Or was it ever accurate?) It would sorta explain why they didn't keep him in the pen after last season, or why no one took a bullpen Rule 5 flyer on him.
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- alex wimmers
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Article: The Twins $55 Million Question
Otto von Ballpark replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Some of it is league context. Santana compiled that over some more offensive seasons than 2014. Also the overall team ERA is usually lowered by the bullpen ERA.- 55 replies
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- ervin santana
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Actually, if he gets added to the 40-man roster and called up, he can be sent back down for fewer than 20 days and still not use an option. To use an option year, you have to spend at least 20 days on optional assignment. (So if they so desired, they could call him up, send him back down for the last few weeks of the minor league season, and then call him back up for September, and still not burn an option.)
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Torii's OPS+ and wRC+ marks so far this year are his lowest since 2004. Both figures are also presently below AL average for RFers or DHs. There's still plenty of time for that to change, but if these trends hold, next year he will probably be below average with the bat (and that's assuming that age 40 doesn't accelerate the decline). I really don't want to lock that into RF or DH yet. If we still want to re-up Torii in the offseason, due to failures of other OF/DH options and/or a strong finish by Torii, I doubt we will be outbid.
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I don't know if it's really "trashing" Walker to say that he should probably work on improving his strikeout numbers at the level he is at, before moving up any further (to one step away from MLB, no less). Personally, though, I'd say that he's had plenty of time to do that already, and he hasn't, but he's also continued succeeding as a power hitter and run producer. So maybe he needs to be challenged to the point of failure first? Not an ideal development path, but in the real world, it's probably a practical one sometimes. That would be my argument for a midseason AAA promotion, and assuming his success quickly translates to that level, maybe even a September call-up to MLB. (I'd plan to protect him on the 40-man roster this winter, at least until he fails to produce somewhere.)
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No prob, Cubs AAA team is indeed in the PCL. But Schwarber is coming up from AA.
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Posey "only" got 9/167 from SF three years later, but of course that bought out four arbitration years. He was 26 years old at the time, but Mauer only turned 28 in early 2011 too. I think 8/184 was a definite possibility for Joe on the open market that winter, but I don't think he would have done better than that. Which does suggest the Twins didn't get much of a hometown/extension discount signing him to those figures the previous winter. They should have signed him much, much earlier, or made his first contract after 2006 some form of "lifetime" deal.
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- joe mauer
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That's my take too. The one exception might be a Yankees playoff series, around 2009-2010. By that point, I probably would have given up something for a guaranteed win against them, and then taken our chances in the rest of the playoffs. (Or just one game win, and take our chances in the series.) I actually remember, in the 2009 Game 163, promising to give up complaining about various players if they could win the game for the Twins. The parameters were vague, though, so I am not sure if it was very binding or enforceable.
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Interesting to note that it was the final of a 3-game series. Knoblauch played LF in the first two games too without any major incident. The power of the student section! (And abundant foil hot dog wrappers.) The general admission LF student tickets lasted through at least 2002, if not 2003 too, so they must not have viewed it as too big of an issue. (Once those seats became more profitable as reserved seating, the student tickets were moved to the upper deck.)
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Nope. Consumed many, though. Actually I am not sure if any hot dogs were actually thrown, I just remember balled-up foil hot dog wrappers. Maybe some still had a little 'dog left in them, I suppose. Paul O'Neill claimed that "golf balls, pencils and coins" were also directed at him in RF, although that claim always seemed a bit dubious to me.