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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    No prob, I was nitpicking. You are building an awesome community here!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I overlooked his line "So you have plans Friday night..." Seems like the kind of important detail one would want to feature more prominently, though. And it's not the first time John has been ambiguous on event dates: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17466-article-join-john-bonnes-phil-miller-at-season-kick-off-event/
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    John, you have an uncanny ability to write beautifully about an event without including the date...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    tobi, I hate to break it to you, but you've got a font size problem!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Just noticed Oliveros' performance here -- any chance he gets more starts? He threw 61 pitches. If he's not going to crack the MLB bullpen with his recent bullpen performance, he probably doesn't have anything to lose, right? Mark Hamburger similarly started making spot starts a few years ago.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rochester rotation should have room for Milone, as Mark Hamburger has been struggling (and was generally a swingman last year anyway, and almost exclusively a reliever before that). Just noticed that Lester Oliveros made a doubleheader start in AAA recently, and struck out 9 in 4 innings (1 hit, 0 walks). His first pro start since Venezuelan summer rookie league in 2006. How did I miss that?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    A hallmark of Pelfrey's career has been inconsistency. He alternated 80 and ~110 ERA+ seasons for the Mets, and likewise has had similar Jeckyl-and-Hyde (albeit more Hyde) stretches for the Twins. That said, if he can pull another ~110 ERA+ season out of his hat, that would be fine by me! Given his age and contract status, I probably wouldn't tolerate a whole lot of in-season inconsistency in pursuit of that goal, though.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Pitchers can rehab for up to 30 days, so in theory we wouldn't be forced to activate Nolasco until May 25th or thereabouts. (The limit is 20 days for position players.) Sometimes the full 30 days is used, but for more serious injuries or to gradually increase a pitcher's workload, neither of which applies to Nolasco right now.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone does indeed have an option year, and very limited bullpen experience (2 late season appearances for Oakland in 2013).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    In my continuing quest to pass on interesting ticket deals, there are $100 tickets behind home plate in the Champions Club for this afternoon's game ($90 each after discount code): http://www.ticketkingonline.com/ResultsTicket.aspx?evtid=2412283 And you probably won't be spotted skipping work, since the game isn't televised on FSN.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the clarifications, sorry I misread your post. Still, I don't think $98 million gives us that much room to play with. Enough to make a guarantee to Plouffe, sure, or to sign another Hunter (hopefully not actually Hunter again ), but probably not enough to make a play on an impact player who could really lessen the burden on our prospects.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That's sort of what I was getting at before. Any one of those deals isn't that big or bad on its own. But the combination of those seven deals isn't a very good base for building a successful team. Three of the biggest contracts you couldn't give away right now (Mauer, Nolasco, Santana), and arguably a fourth (Suzuki). The most valuable of the deals might be a long-term deal for a reliever (Perkins). A lot hinges on Hughes repeating/improving on 2014. And Dozier's deal was already a big guarantee for a few million in potential cost savings for quite possibly a non-elite player. I am not sure I'd be in a rush to add another such guarantee for Plouffe -- there's already almost no margin for error with our upcoming prospects and future FA signings.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Plouffe has been comfortably above replacement the past 3+ seasons. Replacement level is pretty bad, a team full of replacement level performers would by definition win something like 49 wins over a full season. Plouffe is actually solidly average, which is much more valuable. 2014 was his first year solidly above average, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep that up.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    That list is pretty extreme cherry-picking. Bogaerts was a 21 year old rookie, Castellanos 22. Longoria & Wright - 2014 was their worst season in MLB by far. Sandoval & Freese - 2014 was the second worst season in MLB for each. Every one of those four veterans has a higher *career* wOBA than Plouffe's 2014 career high mark. I really am not sure what that list accomplishes, other than to mislead readers. Dozier was pretty good in 2014 too, but it has nothing to do with the fact that his season wOBA was better than Utley and Pedroia. Conor Gillaspie had virtually the same wOBA in 2014 as Plouffe, admittedly worse defense, but is also a year younger with a year less service time. Do you think the White Sox should lock up Gillaspie for the next 4-5 years?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If you could sign him at Brandon's target (four years, $28-30 million), that could be pretty good. But that seems on the low side for Plouffe, if he's already got $7 mil in the bank and he's almost a lock for another $7 mil in arbitration next year. Any more than that, and you are looking at paying his arb prices and then guaranteeing close to $12 mil for that FA year. As solid as his 2014 was, I don't think Plouffe has the upside where that kind of cost certainty is worthwhile.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Your earlier post had them at $98 million for 2016, without adding any free agents at all, and assuming Hicks, Pinto, Tonkin, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, and Rosario are all counted on to make the roster next spring. B-Ref similarly has them estimated at $108 mil for next year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2015-payroll-salaries.shtml Their team record opening day payroll according to Cot's is $113 mil, which was cut back after one losing season. I am not seeing a lot of money there with which to play. I don't think money is a big inhibiting factor here, but the fact is we have invested a lot of money in retaining the core of a 90-loss team.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Any one of those contracts obviously doesn't preclude other signings, but the sum total of market-value (or worse) contracts for average-ish players certainly depletes that resource. The Twins are already at or near their commonly assumed payroll limit for the next 2-3 years. I pretty much guarantee the Twins won't be making any significant FA additions over the next couple offseasons even if they wanted to, thanks to the money already committed to average-ish players.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are a big spender, there are $130 (each) tickets in the Champions Club row 3 right behind home plate (section 9) for tonight, $117 if you use the DAILYDOUBLE discount code: http://www.ticketkingonline.com/ResultsTicket.aspx?evtid=2412281 TDers can comment on your choice of clothing while we watch the game.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, he hired the same agency that currently represents Paul Molitor. I don't recall Molitor being offered or considered for many managerial positions... Is there a good managerial comp for Gardenhire landing another job? In the same organization for almost 30 years, took 14 years to land an MLB managerial position, fired after a series of very poor seasons -- it's not a recipe that suggests either the personal ambition or the team interest in landing another big gig.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. If you use the original poster's definition of journeyman -- "a worker, performer, or athlete who is experienced and good but not excellent" -- that could apply to Plouffe, although I tend to agree more with Seth's definition. But at that point, there is no way Schafer fits under that same definition. He's been among the worst hitters in MLB his entire career, in a group that generally exceeds him in defensive/positional value. He's been surrendered on waivers twice in the last 2.5 years. Given his service time, his salary is almost at an effective minimum. If Schafer is "good", then every player in MLB is at least "good" too. Maybe if you are considering a universe of players larger than that of MLB (say, including all minor leaguers), but then anybody who makes MLB could almost by definition be "excellent." In that case, a journeyman would be more of a minor league veteran.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I would be very surprised if Detroit ever hired Gardenhire to manage. It would be a little like the Yankees hiring Grady Little or some other failed pre-2004 Red Sox manager, after thoroughly seeing his weaknesses and failures close-up. Frankly, I will be a little surprised if he lands anywhere in MLB as manager. He doesn't have experience in any organization other than the Twins, at least for his entire coaching/managerial career of 30 years. That's pretty unusual, isn't it? His record was solid overall for the Twins, but he inherited a solid team. His playoff record is almost too awful to ignore, so what team with realistic playoff aspirations is going to want him? And he was eventually fired by a team solidly in rebuild mode, so what rebuilding team is really going to want him at the helm? Maybe he could be a Plan B or C for someone, but even then, it seems like teams could just as easily find an interesting rookie manager like Doug, Redmond, etc. (And it seems like teams are more willing to go with an inexperienced manager these days, although I haven't studied it.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm all for delaying Nolasco's return too. But if in a couple weeks, Pelfrey is sitting at a 3.30 ERA with bad peripherals, and May/Gibson are around 4.80 or whatever, I'd have no problem shifting Pelf back to the pen and leaving the kids in the rotation. It's quite likely we could use the help in the bullpen, in addition to the young starters needing innings. (And as a side benefit, if Thompson is still pitching well, hopefully it could force out an underperformer from the pen, like Boyer or Stauffer.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the clarification. I actually was reading it as two players, a low level prospect PLUS a starter which was more than what you intended. And given that Correia was absolutely worthless on the trade market, being more valuable than him doesn't necessarily return anything interesting. And as you say, Pelfrey's not even there yet -- he's got what, 1-2 starts here, with good results by bad peripherals. Long way to go.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    What exactly does "low level plus starter type" return mean? It sounds high for a non-elite rental player. Bud Norris got a pair of interesting prospects and a competitive balance pick at the deadline two years ago, but he was 28 years old at the time and controlled for two seasons beyond. In terms of contract, age, control, and even performance, Pelfrey is probably a lot closer to Correia, who we had to give away last August despite 9 months of healthy average starting pitching out of his previous 10. Pelfrey's value to this team is almost entirely in his present-season performance.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But what do you do when Nolasco comes back, then? Send May down? Gibson?
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