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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not so much the money as the years. If he is any good, you aren't getting any of Arcia's free agent years without a 4+ year, ~$60 mil type commitment. But I agree, the stats don't presently suggest he will be very good, or even if he is, he might be so one-dimensional it could suppress his future value. The guy we should have been aggressive on, though, was Dozier last winter. Encouraging performance, defense/positional value to fall back on, two years away from arb... We could have a much better deal than just 4/20, like 5/30 plus team options.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Not so sure the Braves would give us Graham in trade so easily -- Diamond was a much lower regarded prospect, who looked less ready/suited to an MLB bullpen. And to get Diamond, we gave up a fairly high upside reliever in Bullock (who admittedly busted). I don't see Graham going for less.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that Milone has an option too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    If you can point to any recent 5/30 plus options type deals signed by an arb-eligible player, I might agree with you. Here is a tool you can use: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker Billy Butler was the first rough comparable I found, although his deal was 4/30 plus $12.5 mil option and signed before 2011. Ervin Santana also signed for 4/30 plus $13 mil option before 2009. Those were the only two I found there, dating back to spring 2008. That first guaranteed multi-million dollar payday is a big leverage loss for teams, I think. (Especially if the player didn't receive a multi-million dollar bonus at the beginning of their pro career.) Once they've got a couple mil in the bank, most decent players are much better off going year to year unless you offer in the $50+ mil range (which those Santana and Butler deals would probably push, once adjusted for inflation).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hopefully, but he's realistically a year-plus away. Santana CF, Escobar SS for this season might still provide more long-term benefit to the Twins than Santana SS, Escobar utility, and sorting through various flotsam and jetsam in CF for a year. The longer they both show they can handle starting roles, the better.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought of that too. I don't think MLB would "sit on it", but they may not want to go to the trouble/cost of filtering and presenting the complete data for free to the public. Unless they are already building a centralized set of filters/interfaces for the teams to use, I suppose. But if they are simply passing the data to teams in a fairly raw form, they might simply sell it in a similar form to outside entities like ESPN to process and use (although not share).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The problem isn't lack of bullpen replacements -- the problem is when do they do the replacing? To date, they haven't shown much inclination to replace modestly performing low-upside guys in MLB. It might take a complete collapse or expired contract to replace anybody.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    While the public could create their own imperfect defensive record (and it seems almost feasible, with MLB.tv), they still wouldn't be able to check them against any of the current metrics, other than the final result. It would be like keeping score and making your own OPS+ -- while the "real" OPS+ was generated with a secret set of inputs. I too was excited by FieldF/X (now called Statcast), but I am not encouraged by their implementation so far. In 2014 it was at limited ballparks and they only included the info on select video highlights -- and from the sound of it, that might be all we see again as it expands to all 30 parks for 2015: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/110648292/commissioner-rob-manfred-mlbcoms-statcast-greatly-expanding-in-2015 I haven't seen anything suggesting the public will have access to this data for all plays (like PitchF/X), rendering it mostly a public curiosity. Maybe MLB will sell the complete data to ESPN, Fangraphs, etc. which should produce some interesting work, but more of the black box variety.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally agreed, although some have suggested that Molitor and Allen would shake things up a bit in this regard too. If they ultimately fail to lobby for any higher upside new blood on the roster this spring, I will be a little disappointed in them (although probably more disappointed in TR, for not yet learning that lesson himself from the past few years).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Danny Santana equally subject to "The Label" of him as a shortstop? I understand what they're doing with him and Escobar right now, but it's hard not to see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS as the optimal present-day (and arguably long-term) use of resources for the Twins. (Although Escobar might be a bigger factor at 3B this year than most folks realize.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a list of shortstops, ages 24-26, wRC+ 92-112 (Escobar was 102 last year), 400+ PA seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1990&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=24%2c26&filter=25377&players=0&sort=18%2ca A few utility guys pop up (I am not sure what the SS qualifier means), but that's not necessarily bad for Escobar comps: - Sean Rodriguez basically stayed in his utility role for the 2012 Rays - Emilio Bonifacio shifted to CF/utility for the 2012 Marlins (they signed Jose Reyes) - Damian Jackson started at 2B for the 2001 Padres, then went back to utility - Ramon Vasquez was replaced at SS before the end of his follow-up season for the 2003 Pades A couple more stretch your defensive requirement: - Kurt Abbott was replaced at SS and shifted to utility not far into his follow-up season for the 1996 Marlins - Brendan Harris was traded, started at 2B for the 2008 Twins, but then fairly quickly found himself in a utility role A few more guys continued starting at SS but probably shouldn't have (2004 Angel Berroa!). The best team in this group (2012 Rays) more or less kept their young utility guy in his utility role.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, "The Label" is usually based on a guy's long-term track record, so it's not all bad. The Twins have tried to buck "The Label" for various players over the years without a lot of sustained success: Nick Punto as starting 3B/SS, Brian Duensing as starter, Scott Diamond as staff leader, etc. Diamond posted a 116 ERA+ (and even a better than average 96 FIP-) in 2012, but the Twins still would have been better off making him battle for a rotation spot in 2013.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Usually option buyouts are included in the total guaranteed value of the contract. For example, Nolasco's contract is generally reported as 4/49, because he makes $12 mil for each of 4 years, plus a $1 mil buyout on a 5th year option. Also, $3 mil in buyouts for that length/cost of contract is probably high. There are generally buyouts for each option year, and only the buyout for the first declined option gets paid. Adam Eaton just signed a deal for 5/23.5 -- he gets $22 mil over the first 5 years, then he has a $1.5 mil buyout on each of two option years. So his base guarantee is $23.5M -- there's no way for him to get both $1.5 mil buyouts. In any case, whether it's $20M, $21.5M, or $23M, 5 years with multiple team options is generally a very team-friendly deal, and almost impossible to get when a player is this close (8-9 months) to getting tendered his first arbitration contract. The only reason it's probably still feasible with Arcia is because he has yet to show much in the way of positive statistical trends (which admittedly is worrisome). I have no special insight into Arcia, so I have the same doubts about him too, but if the Twins thought there was even a 50/50 chance that he still improves enough to stick as a MLB regular (not to mention any potential to go beyond that), they'd have to jump at such an extension right now. If they wait for positive statistical trends, and let him get even closer to arbitration, this deal will not be on the table.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, according to MLB Gameday. Williams replaced Hunter to begin the top of the 8th, and shortly thereafter Graham/Hamburger allowed their runs.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Somewhat ironic that James wrote this behind a paywall, considering that the development and acceptance of defensive metrics has been held back in part due to all meaningful records and breakdowns of defensive events being behind their own paywalls. It was only possible for Parker to do this level of analysis on Dozier because he's worked to get contacts who provide him with limited amounts of non-public data. Imagine if the general public had free access to all of the input data and records that go into UZR, DRS, etc...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely agreed on the offense and bullpen, though. Hope you are right about Gibson! Grudgingly admit you may be right about Meyer too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Can we please stop comparing the Twins offense to the league where there is no DH and the pitchers bat regularly? The Twins ranked 5th in the AL, I believe, which is still good (top half of the league) and a much better representation of their performance relative to their peers than the "top ~20%" implied by the MLB rank.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    But that's definitely a mark against the new coaching staff, right? This is the kind of thing we pilloried Gardy for.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't sign them early. All of the players were arb eligible already when they signed their extensions.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    At these salaries, basically any team could afford to take on Dozier, even as a bounceback candidate if he gets hurt or struggles. Perhaps that's the extra trade value in this deal -- not that the cost savings over arb would net us better return, but rather it is so affordable we will almost certainly never be stuck paying him if we don't want to.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    In fairness, the league OPS for LHB vs LHP in Morneau's time was generally 60-70 points higher than today. In his .716 "breakout" season of 2004, the MLB average was .739! Morneau was below league average in 3 of his first ~4 seasons (thru 2007). Didn't hit them at a league average level until he turned 25 in 2006, and then reverted to below average again in 2007, before showing more sustained improvement beginning in 2008. That said, Morneau was a very different type of hitter than Arcia. At this point, I would not trust Arcia to improve against LHP, nor would I trust him to sustain enough success against RHP to make him a viable full-timer long-term. Unless the extension terms were extremely team-friendly, I would not extend.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I kinda dislike that level of "professional courtesy." Relievers haven't been the "outcasts" of MLB pitching staffs for a very long time. Pelfrey and Stauffer are on more than fair free market contracts. A team should be able to have them work out the pen for the entirely of spring training, if they believe that is the optimal usage for both the player and team. (And a team shouldn't make role promises when negotiating contracts with this level of pitcher either.) As it stands, we may have to waste regular season games while Pelfrey experiments and adjusts to his new role (and I wouldn't be surprised to hear Stauffer's spring usage cited as an excuse if he starts slow in the pen this year).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Perkins was 27 years old, more or less healthy, and being sent to the minors midseason with no career earnings beyond a couple league minimum checks, and no guaranteed future salaries either. Pelfrey is 31, has made $30 mil, has missed 2 of the last 3 seasons to injury, has realistically had all offseason and spring to prepare and adjust to a new role, and has yet to accept a demotion. (And in fact has to power to refuse a minor league assignment, become a free agent, and keep his last $5.5 mil.) (Agreed Perkins' grievance was pretty frivolous given his performance. Frankly I am not sure why these guys are so resistant to bullpen work -- it demands a change in routine, but relievers are held in pretty high esteem in modern MLB and are compensated pretty well.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    A few notes from MLBTR on the deal: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/al-central-notes-dozier-tigers-finnegan.html I am guessing that Dozier and his agent wanted the Carpenter/Kipnis deal (6/52) and the Twins wouldn't do it. I don't blame him for wanting that, and I don't blame the Twins for resisting it either. And essentially, he signed a deal that mirrors the first 4 years (pre-FA) of Carpenter's and Kipnis's deals (roughly 4/21.5).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Tabata's contract is a bit of an outlier, but I absolutely would have signed Arcia for 6/15 (adjust for 4 years baseball inflation if you like) plus 3 option years, at any point in his career to date since he reached MLB. That money is nothing. The White Sox paid Dayan Viciedo that much over 6 years, and he spent almost half that time in the minors and generally sucked in the majors. And it didn't really hurt the White Sox at all. Problem is, most players don't sign contracts quite like that, and even less so at the point Arcia is at in his career.
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