Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Community Leader
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,620

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, that's a pretty binary view which I don't share, either the assumption that a failed PED test = career-long PED user, and failed PED test = performance is a lie. I have no problem with requiring a PED test as part of the standard physical before finalizing a FA contract, I guess. But Santana's case is definitely an outlier in that regard (has any FA ever been suspended before playing a game with his new team?). Anything more than that is giving the teams too much of an out for decisions that are probably only tangentially affected by the player's PED use, in my opinion. I'd rather encourage and reward teams to be effective in factoring PED likelihood and effects into their pre-contract player assessments, than give major financial relief to teams that fail to do so (not to mention the aforementioned incentives to foul play).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They wouldn't need to compromise the testing authority. Spiking a player's creatine shake would suffice, no? Still sounds a little far-fetched, but I don't even want that to be an option or a temptation. The team already saves the salary for the suspension period -- that's enough. First offense is half a season, second offense is full season -- those are significant money savings in free agent deals. And third offense is a lifetime ban, which is an effective voiding of the contract. Teams shouldn't get a "get out of jail free card", a do-over to re-evaluate whether signing the player was a good idea in the first place, for any reason, with the benefit of hindsight, due to one failed PED test. Consider it one of the risks of signing players on the FA market, and like other FA risks, it varies from player to player (and from team to team, how well you know/evaluate players too).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Am I the only one who thinks allowing deals to be voided like this would be a terrible idea? Teams would have a MASSIVE incentive for some of their players to fail a test. Like, $175 million worth, in the case of Albert Pujols right now. Even if you think the teams are generally trustworthy and wouldn't resort to foul play, it's just a bad idea to give people/organizations incentives like that for negative outcomes. (Similar to insurance awards too -- you get an amount equivalent to what you directly lost, but you don't get a lottery type windfall.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    While it's hard to blame the Twins, the downside risk of a injury or suspension is greater when you sign over-30 players (and average-ish over-30 players to boot), which is something the Twins have been doing repeatedly lately. A 28 year old injured/suspended for the first half season of a four year contract? Not a huge problem, you still have full ages 29-31. A 32 year old ace missing for the first half season of a contract? Sucks, but the player is good enough that even with some decline, ages 33-35 project as useful. An average-ish 32 year old? The team really needs that first year to get good value on that contract. Very weird that Santana was suspended before even playing a game with his new team (has that ever happened before?), but the Twins were sorta playing with fire by targeting these kind of players, and have arguably been burned twice already (Nolasco injury, Santana suspension).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    There is such a rule, but it can be waived for injury (and apparently suspension). Thompson was optioned just like May -- he was still on the 40-man roster.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    May faced 22 batters in his last spring start. If he did that on 33 pitches, he's the most efficient pitcher ever. Also when they decided the 5th starter spot a week ago, May had 10.2 IP, Pelfrey 13.2, and Milone 14. I believe May and Milone had also pitched in minor league games that didn't count against those stats.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess the CBA prohibits PED clauses. It would give teams a massive incentive for foul play.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Dan Naulty. Also, Matt Lawton was busted several years after leaving the Twins (in the first year of testing).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Ideally, you would sub out both corner outfielders at times. (That's why I thought it might be better to dump Nunez for a real outfielder.) Not sure if Herrmann would be the guy to do it, but I am guessing they won't do that to Hunter anyway.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I am just waiting for the Dave St. Peter tweet, "Amazed at focus on 20th through 25th men on the roster."
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor has been in this organization the last 10 years. Barring any evidence to the contrary, I think it's safe to assume he's OK with our general pattern of personnel decisions.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That wasn't until August 26th. Prior to that, Robinson spent half the season in AAA, being demoted three separate times, apparently due to poor performance or just being deemed unnecessary (only started 7 games in 2.5 months in MLB, 83.1 innings in the field): http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=robins001sha&type=bgl&year=2014 Don Kelly was on FOUR consecutive postseason rosters for Detroit -- why didn't we add him?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect Farris's defensive award was more just an acknowledgement of taking on the task, when there was basically no healthy outfielders in our high minors (remember when AA Kenny Wilson snuck onto our CF depth chart?). Also, the competition was thin. Nunez might not be a bad comp for Farris, though. Their minor league lines are pretty close to identical, although Farris spent two whole season in the PCL so his line is probably worse. (Although it appears Farris also skipped AA, which was by far Nunez's best level.) I have no idea about Farris's true defensive rep.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Why not 2014? Eduardo Nunez was on Yankees playoff rosters in 2011 and 2012 too. I hope that didn't factor into our evaluation of his talent in 2014.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, we've had two full calendar years to come up with a better CF plan. And a better defensive OF starter would be a much better way to improve our defense than one backup. (Even Schafer is generally regarded as stretched defensively as an everyday CF, no?) I think when the Twins commit to an opening day roster, particularly a veteran without options on the opening day roster, it's permanent for at least 2 months, often longer. Looking back at the opening day rosters since 2010, here are the guys who haven't lasted 2 months and who were not optioned to the minors: Bartlett 2014 (retired) Sean Burroughs 2012 (DFA'd after a month) Luke Hughes 2012 (waived after a couple weeks) Marquis was released after about 2 months in 2012 too. And as we know, Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Stauffer, Boyer, Pelfrey, and Graham cannot be optioned, so I don't expect any quick decisions on them. It's basically Herrmann and Milone. How quickly would they option Milone at that salary? They did release Marquis and option Slowey after about two months at a similar price, but Slowey was pitching out of the bullpen at the time (and both had more recent injuries?).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Baby steps!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor was in the dugout all last season, and was a minor league coach for the previous ~9 years. And he was hired before any real offseason moves were made -- Hunter, arbitration tenders, Rule 5, relievers, non-roster invites, etc. I suspect Molitor's thinking on such matters is simply not that different from TR or Gardy.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think they were going to option a guy in spring training making $2.8 mil like Milone. They traded Slowey at that price even though he had an option left. And I think Pelfrey was the likeliest to go to the pen only because they weren't going to put any of the other competitors there (Milone because he's a bad fit, and May/Meyer because they want them starting). Which could be part of why Pelfrey was upset -- perhaps he gets the 5th starter job if Milone's repertoire was better suited for relief work. I assume Pelfrey will start again for the Twins this season. (If I was being Gibson 2014 level pessimistic, I'd assume Stauffer makes a start too. )
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that was just our natural pessimism. The three guys Gibson had to beat had all been demoted to AAA themselves within the previous 12 months. And the guy with the least recent AAA demotion (Deduno) was coming off September shoulder surgery and had been outrighted off the 40-man roster the previous offseason too. This spring there was similar natural pessimism about the chances of May and Meyer, but at least it was backed up by at least ~$8 million (the salaries guaranteed Pelfrey and Milone).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That would suggest the Twins were not operating in good faith when they let Pelfrey compete for the job this spring. Not sure that I buy that. Pelfrey may have ranked 3rd at the beginning and 3rd at the end, but I believe they view him as a starter until they say otherwise.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Still not sure what this -- "we'll see Meyer and May within 2 months" -- is based on. If it's 2014, we didn't go to a non-rainout 7th starter until late June. (If it's based on 2012-2013, when we dipped in the starting well earlier, those were much less stable rotations than the 2014-2015 ones.) Did I miss something saying that Pelfrey is permanently a member of the bullpen now? Otherwise, isn't it pretty safe to assume he will get a chance if the need for a spot start or replacement starter arises?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If Twins Daily posters like us can figure these things out, I am pretty sure MLB front offices were fully aware of them (and their potentiality) some time ago. (As to his rushing back from TJ surgery, he had multiple ~80 ERA+ seasons for the Mets too. I think that level of performance is just part of the package with him. Hopefully he can be more consistent out of the pen.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    If that's the case, is Pelfrey an idiot? Did he not understand this was a possible outcome? Did he really think it was a competition based on spring training ERA?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    He was briefly property of the Twins back in 1998-1999. Acquired from the Cubs for Mike Morgan, then shipped back to the Cubs a few months later with Aguilera for Lohse. Wow, he is old!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, that makes more sense. But I still doubt they thought OF defense was that big of a problem, then or now.
×
×
  • Create New...